Delivering Fertilizer Solutions for Smallholder Farmers

Dr. J. Scott Angle

IFDC President and CEO

Kenya Fertilizer Roundtable

Nairobi

16th October 2018

IFDC Overview

Who We Are: IFDC is a non-profit public international organization that

provides solutions to food security, agricultural sustainability, and economic

development.

Our Mission: IFDC enables farmers to increase agricultural productivity,

generate economic growth, and practice environmental stewardship by

enhancing their ability to harness inputs and management practices and

participate profitably in markets

IFDC in AfricaFor more than 25 years, our projects have assisted millions of smallholder farmers, helping to move

them away from subsistence farming. They are now agricultural entrepreneurs, able to actively

participate in local and regional agricultural trade.

• Toward Sustainable Clusters in Agribusiness through Learning in

Entrepreneurship (2SCALE) – DGIS/Netherlands

• Local Government Approach to the Agricultural Market (ACMA II) –

Netherlands Embassy/Benin

• Feed the Future Ghana Agriculture Technology Transfer Project (Feed the

Future Ghana ATT) – USAID/Ghana

• Enhancing Growth through Regional Agricultural Input Systems (EnGRAIS)

– USAID/West Africa

• Smallholder Agricultural Productivity Enhancement Program (SAPEP) –

Islamic Development Bank

• Scaling Up Fertilizer Deep Placement and Micro Dosing (FDP MD) –

USAID/Mali

• Toyota Tsusho Fertilizer Africa, Kenya (TTFA) – Toyota

• Transforming Irrigation Management in Nigeria (TRIMING) – World

Bank/Nigeria

• Supporting Agricultural Productivity in Burundi (PAPAB) – Netherlands

Embassy/Burundi

• Integrated Seed Sector Development (ISSD) – Netherlands

Embassy/Burundi

• Resilient Efficient Agribusiness Chains (REACH-Uganda) – Netherlands

Embassy/Uganda

• Promotion of Nutrition-Sensitive Potato Value Chains in East Africa (PNSP-

Uganda) – GIZ/Uganda

• Food Security through Climate Adaptation in Mozambique (FAR-Sofala) –

Swedish Embassy/Mozambique

Abuja Fertilizer Summit 2006

Summary Indicator/Target

8 50 kg (nutrients)/ha in 2015

IFDC appointed by the African Union

(AU) to undertake technical

preparation and reporting:

• 12 technical background papers

• Technical facilitation

(program, speakers)

• Preparation of

Summit Proceedings

Accomplishments since Abuja

Progress

• Create sense of urgency:

Malabo Declaration

CAADP Compacts

• Exploitation of local deposits

• Change in government

policies

• Industry focus on Africa

• Investment in local capacity

• PPPs between governments,

industry, and development

partners

Monitoring

• NEPAD/CAADP data

• Bill & Melinda Gates

Foundation (BMGF) Fertilizer

Dashboard

• AfricaFertilizer.org/IFASTAT

Implementation Status of Abuja Declaration on Fertilizers

Source: www.nepad-caadp.net, in Boosting Africa’s Soils - http://www.fao.org/3/a-i5532e.pdf

Indicator Status

Establishment of policy and regulatory frameworks Unsatisfactory

Capacity for quality control Satisfactory

Elimination of taxes and tariffs Unsatisfactory

Development of agro-dealer networks Satisfactory

Distance traveled to purchase fertilizers Good

Increase in the proportion of farmers using

chemical fertilizersGood

Increasing market sizePartially

Satisfactory

Introducing targeted subsidies Satisfactory

Introducing national financing facilities for importers

and agro-dealersGood

Introducing regional procurement initiatives Satisfactory

Improving access to complementary inputs Satisfactory

Establishment of the AFFM Satisfactory

Fertilizer application rate up ~1 kg/ha/yr by 2021

Data for SSA excluding South Africa

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2021

N P2O5 K2O

App

licat

ion

rate

(kg

nut

rient

s/ha

)

Source: IFA, Feb 2018

Average Application Rate Grows Steadily

Anticipated Relative Growth

2021/22

0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

W. & C. Europe

North America

Oceania

East Asia

West Asia

South Asia

Lat. Am. & Carib.

E. Eur. & C. Asia

Africa +32%

Crop Land Expansion

2021/22

App

licat

ion

rate

(kg

/ha)

0

50

100

150

200

250

0

5

10

15

20

25

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

Fertilizer use Arable Land & Perm Crops

SS

A c

ropp

ed la

nd a

rea

(mill

ha)

Source: IFA, Feb 2018

59

19

32

CENTRAL AFRICA

N+ P2O5+K2O : 109 Kt

Share of SSA: 3%

SSA Consumed 3.7 Mt Nutrients in 2016

ZAF ETH NIG KEN

K20 126 5 59 15

P2O5 235 218 98 119

N 327 268 265 137

0

200

400

600

800

18%

13%

11%

7%

(kt nutrients)

Source: IFA, Feb. 2018

SSA at a Glance

3.7 Mt nutrients

o 2.0 Mt N

o 1.1 Mt P2O5

o 0.6 Mt K2O

2.0% of world demand

o 1.9% of N

o 2.4% of P2O5

o 1.6 of K2O

2016 Fertilizer Consumption EstimatesWESTERN AFRICA

N+P2O5+K2O: 1 220 Kt

Share of SSA: 33%

627329

264

EASTERN AFRICA

N+ P2O5+K2O : 1 109 Kt

Share of SSA: 30%

654

413

42

SOUTHERN AFRICA

N+ P2O5+K2O : 1 279 kt

Share of SSA: 34%

690371

217

Top-4: 50% share

• 6 countries: +31% in 2 years 2015 1.9 million tons

2016 2.0 million tons

2017 2.5 million tons

• Ethiopia + Kenya 86% of consumption growth

• Key drivers: National investments: subsidies

and programs for food crops

Private sector engagement

Donor/investor community

Tons products

-

200 000

400 000

600 000

800 000

1 000 000

1 200 000

1 400 000

Ethiopia Kenya Tanzania Uganda Rwanda Burundi

Apparent Consumption 2015-2017 (tons)

2015 2016 2017

Source: FTWG / AfricaFertilizer.org

2015-2017 Consumption in Six Eastern African Countries

http://africafertilizer.org/production/

Production plants Blending plants New projects

Fertilizer Production and Blending Capacities are Booming

• NPK fertilizers dominate in SSA: Rarely meet complete nutrient

demands low return on investment.

• Multinutrient blends contain secondary and micronutrients (SMNs):

Additional 30%+ yield.

SMNs less expensive than NPKs.

• Fertilizer blenders can efficiently make targeted crop-specific blends.

0,41,0

2,8

3,72,72,0

1,7

0,82,2

1,2

1,21,6

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

MaizeBurundi44 Sites

MaizeMozambique

17 Sites

MaizeRwanda North

17 Sites

MaizeRwanda East

59 Sites

Yie

ld, M

t h

a-1

Secondary/micronutrient yield increment

NPK yield increment

Control

Changes in the Market: NPKs to Multinutrient Blends

• Industry interest – investments in production (e.g., Morocco, Nigeria, Ethiopia, Kenya); Africa “last frontier.”

• Renewed donor interest: USAID, AGRA, BMGF, AfDB, World Bank, IDB.

• Subsidies: Growth fastest in subsidized markets.

• Fertilizer Industry Association: B2B opportunities and policy advocacy.

• Alternative smallholder access-to-credit solutions:

One Acre Fund.

Commercial farmer associations.

Agri-food industry and local commodity sourcing.

• “Credit guarantees work” for importers, distributors, agro‐dealers (AFAP example).

Drivers for Change – Sub-Saharan Africa

• Policy and regulations: no harmonization; diverse standards are trade barriers.

• Subsidies: from blanket smart exit.

• Limited data: ag productivity, FUBC, market data.

• Capacity and coordination constraints, both public (extension) and private sector.

• Limited trade finance opportunities.

Opportunity

• Fertilizer Platform to guide public and private

investments to promote a competitive fertilizer sector.

What are the Gaps?

• President of Nigeria has offered AU to host next summit.

• Preparations take time: 12-18 months.

• Industry is interested if preparations are serious and if roles

of public and private sector are “balanced.”

• General consensus:

Not a fertilizer summit but a soil health summit. Focus moves from

Fertilizer Productivity Closing the Yield Gap.

Fertilizer industry to focus on “demand drivers” (urban food needs,

agri‐food industry, import substitution, etc.) requires broad

government/policy support.

• Closing the yield gap will be the mantra for the years to

come.

Moving Forward: Roadmap to Abuja II

THE BIG FOUR:Commitment to 100% Food and Nutrition Security

• Redesign subsidy model

• 50% of fertilizers blended

• Liming expanded

• Double irrigated cropland by 2022

• Improve credit access for inputs

• Warehouse receipt system for price stability

• Regulatory enforcement

Kenya Opportunity: The pieces are in place

Two quality lime suppliers

Four quality blenders, one manufacturer

Other quality suppliers of

multi-nutrient compounds

A liberalized fertilizer market, > 40 fertilizer products available to

farmersQuality

laboratory services (public

and private)

Port for easy fertilizer import

Solid research (national and international)

Outstanding implementing organizations

Cooperation and

communication

between stakeholders

is a necessity for rapid

progress.

Thank you!