deliberations begin for the economics prize according to michael kremer, what has discouraged aids...

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Deliberations Begin for the Economics Prize According to Michael Kremer, what has discouraged AIDS research? The lower prices drug manufacturers charge for AIDS drugs in Africa make them less profitable to produce. Therefore, the drug manufacturers are not interested in developing new AIDS drugs. Is Kremer’s premise consistent with economic theory?

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Page 1: Deliberations Begin for the Economics Prize According to Michael Kremer, what has discouraged AIDS research?  The lower prices drug manufacturers charge

Deliberations Begin for the Economics Prize

According to Michael Kremer, what has discouraged AIDS research?The lower prices drug manufacturers charge for AIDS drugs in Africa make them less profitable to produce. Therefore, the drug manufacturers are not interested in developing new AIDS drugs.Is Kremer’s premise consistent with economic theory?

Page 2: Deliberations Begin for the Economics Prize According to Michael Kremer, what has discouraged AIDS research?  The lower prices drug manufacturers charge

Q

P

Supply1

Market for AIDS DrugsDemand

Page 3: Deliberations Begin for the Economics Prize According to Michael Kremer, what has discouraged AIDS research?  The lower prices drug manufacturers charge

Q

P

Supply1

Market for AIDS DrugsDemand

P1 .

Page 4: Deliberations Begin for the Economics Prize According to Michael Kremer, what has discouraged AIDS research?  The lower prices drug manufacturers charge

Q

P

Supply1

Market for AIDS DrugsDemand

PC .shortage

Page 5: Deliberations Begin for the Economics Prize According to Michael Kremer, what has discouraged AIDS research?  The lower prices drug manufacturers charge

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

$90

$100

0 10 20 30 40 50

Quanity

Co

st

Average Variable

Marginal

Average

Drug Producer’s Cost Structure

Page 6: Deliberations Begin for the Economics Prize According to Michael Kremer, what has discouraged AIDS research?  The lower prices drug manufacturers charge

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

$90

$100

0 10 20 30 40 50

Quanity

Co

st

Average Variable

Marginal

Drug Producer’s Cost Structure

P=AC

Profit=0

Average

Page 7: Deliberations Begin for the Economics Prize According to Michael Kremer, what has discouraged AIDS research?  The lower prices drug manufacturers charge

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

$90

$100

0 10 20 30 40 50

Quanity

Co

st

Average Variable

Marginal

Drug Producer’s Cost Structure

With price concessions

Average

Page 8: Deliberations Begin for the Economics Prize According to Michael Kremer, what has discouraged AIDS research?  The lower prices drug manufacturers charge

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

$90

$100

0 10 20 30 40 50

Quanity

Co

st

Average Variable

Marginal

Drug Producer’s Cost Structure

Loss

P<AC

Profit<0

Average

Page 9: Deliberations Begin for the Economics Prize According to Michael Kremer, what has discouraged AIDS research?  The lower prices drug manufacturers charge

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

$90

$100

0 10 20 30 40 50

Quanity

Co

st

Average Variable

Marginal

Drug Producer’s Cost Structure

Average

R&D increases short-run fixed costs.

Loss

Page 10: Deliberations Begin for the Economics Prize According to Michael Kremer, what has discouraged AIDS research?  The lower prices drug manufacturers charge

Q

P

Supply1

Market for AIDS DrugsDemand

PC .

Supply2

Advances in technology for producing AIDS drugs would shift out the supply curve.

Page 11: Deliberations Begin for the Economics Prize According to Michael Kremer, what has discouraged AIDS research?  The lower prices drug manufacturers charge

Deliberations Begin for the Economics Prize

What does ?? Suggest as a solution to the drug problem?Increase the cost of selling drugs.

Would it work?

Page 12: Deliberations Begin for the Economics Prize According to Michael Kremer, what has discouraged AIDS research?  The lower prices drug manufacturers charge

Q

P

Supply1

Market for Addictive DrugsDemand

P1 .

.Q1

Demand is perfectly inelastic.

Page 13: Deliberations Begin for the Economics Prize According to Michael Kremer, what has discouraged AIDS research?  The lower prices drug manufacturers charge

P1 .

P

Supply1

.Q1

P2 .

Market for Addictive DrugsDemand

Supply2

Increasing the cost of providing drugs makes the supply curve steeper, increasing price with no change in quantity consumed.

Page 14: Deliberations Begin for the Economics Prize According to Michael Kremer, what has discouraged AIDS research?  The lower prices drug manufacturers charge

Market for Addictive Drugs

How will drug addicts get the money to maintain their habit when the price of drugs increases?

Stealing

Prostitution

Dealing Drugs

Page 15: Deliberations Begin for the Economics Prize According to Michael Kremer, what has discouraged AIDS research?  The lower prices drug manufacturers charge

Deliberations Begin for the Economics Prize

Does economic theory predict that retailers should sell products for lower prices on the internet than in their stores?

Page 16: Deliberations Begin for the Economics Prize According to Michael Kremer, what has discouraged AIDS research?  The lower prices drug manufacturers charge

In Store

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

0 10 20 30 40 50

Quanity

Cost

On-line

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

0 10 20 30 40 50

Quanity

Cos

tAverage Variable

Marginal

Marginal

Average

Retailer’s Cost Structure

Average

Average Variable

The cost structure for selling in-store is higher than the cost structure for selling on-line.

Page 17: Deliberations Begin for the Economics Prize According to Michael Kremer, what has discouraged AIDS research?  The lower prices drug manufacturers charge

On-line

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

0 10 20 30 40 50

Quanity

Cos

t

In Store

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

0 10 20 30 40 50

Quanity

Cost

Average Variable

Marginal

Marginal

Average

Retailer’s Cost Structure

The MC curve above the minimum of the AVC curve is the supply curve.

Average

Average Variable

Page 18: Deliberations Begin for the Economics Prize According to Michael Kremer, what has discouraged AIDS research?  The lower prices drug manufacturers charge

Market Equilibrium

Each of the 1,000 producers have this supply curve.

In-store

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

0 10 20 30 40 50

Quantity

Pric

e

Page 19: Deliberations Begin for the Economics Prize According to Michael Kremer, what has discouraged AIDS research?  The lower prices drug manufacturers charge

Market Equilibrium

In-store

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

0 10 20 30 40 50

Quantity

Pric

e

The market supply curve will be the sum of the 1,000 supply curves.

Market

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

0 10 20 30 40 50

Quantity (1,000's)

Pric

e

Page 20: Deliberations Begin for the Economics Prize According to Michael Kremer, what has discouraged AIDS research?  The lower prices drug manufacturers charge

Market Equilibrium

In-store

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

0 10 20 30 40 50

Quantity

Pric

eMarket

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

0 10 20 30 40 50

Quantity (1,000's)

Pric

e

The market price is determined by the intersection of the market supply and demand curves.

Page 21: Deliberations Begin for the Economics Prize According to Michael Kremer, what has discouraged AIDS research?  The lower prices drug manufacturers charge

Market Equilibrium

In-store

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

0 10 20 30 40 50

Quantity

Pric

eMarket

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

0 10 20 30 40 50

Quantity (1,000's)

Pric

e

25,000 units will be purchased at $8 in store.

Page 22: Deliberations Begin for the Economics Prize According to Michael Kremer, what has discouraged AIDS research?  The lower prices drug manufacturers charge

Market Equilibrium

In-store

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

0 10 20 30 40 50

Quantity

Pric

eMarket

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

0 10 20 30 40 50

Quantity (1,000's)

Pric

e

The demand curves for each retailer are horizontal at the market price.

Page 23: Deliberations Begin for the Economics Prize According to Michael Kremer, what has discouraged AIDS research?  The lower prices drug manufacturers charge

Market Equilibrium

In-store

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

0 10 20 30 40 50

Quantity

Pric

eMarket

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

0 10 20 30 40 50

Quantity (1,000's)

Pric

e

Each retailer will sell 25 units.

Page 24: Deliberations Begin for the Economics Prize According to Michael Kremer, what has discouraged AIDS research?  The lower prices drug manufacturers charge

In Store

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

0 10 20 30 40 50

Quanity

Cost Average Variable

Marginal

Average

Retailer’s Cost Structure

For the 25,000 units sold in store, Price = Per Unit cost = $8 and Profit = $0.

Page 25: Deliberations Begin for the Economics Prize According to Michael Kremer, what has discouraged AIDS research?  The lower prices drug manufacturers charge

Market Equilibrium

In-store

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

0 10 20 30 40 50

Quantity

Pric

e

If the 1,000 retailers also sell on-line, the on-line supply curves will be added to the market supply curve.

Market

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

Quantity (1,000's)

Pric

e

On-line

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

0 10 20 30 40 50

Quantity

Pric

e

Page 26: Deliberations Begin for the Economics Prize According to Michael Kremer, what has discouraged AIDS research?  The lower prices drug manufacturers charge

Market Equilibrium

In-store

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

0 10 20 30 40 50

Quantity

Pric

e

The market prices drops to $7.

Market

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

Quantity (1,000's)

Pric

e

On-line

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

0 10 20 30 40 50

Quantity

Pric

e

Page 27: Deliberations Begin for the Economics Prize According to Michael Kremer, what has discouraged AIDS research?  The lower prices drug manufacturers charge

Market Equilibrium

In-store

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

0 10 20 30 40 50

Quantity

Pric

e

The retailers’ demand curves fall to $7.

Market

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

Quantity (1,000's)

Pric

e

On-line

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

0 10 20 30 40 50

Quantity

Pric

e

Page 28: Deliberations Begin for the Economics Prize According to Michael Kremer, what has discouraged AIDS research?  The lower prices drug manufacturers charge

Market Equilibrium

In-store

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

0 10 20 30 40 50

Quantity

Pric

e

Each retailer will sell 23 units in store and 38 units on-line.

Market

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

Quantity (1,000's)

Pric

e

On-line

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

0 10 20 30 40 50

Quantity

Pric

e

Page 29: Deliberations Begin for the Economics Prize According to Michael Kremer, what has discouraged AIDS research?  The lower prices drug manufacturers charge

In Store

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

0 10 20 30 40 50

Quanity

Cost

Average Variable

Marginal

Average

Retailer’s Cost Structure

For the 23,000 units sold in store,Price = $7, Per Unit cost = $8.25 and Profit = -$1.25.

Loss = $28.75

In the long run, retailers would shut down their in-store operations.

Page 30: Deliberations Begin for the Economics Prize According to Michael Kremer, what has discouraged AIDS research?  The lower prices drug manufacturers charge

On-line

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

0 10 20 30 40 50

Quanity

Cos

t

Average

Marginal

Average Variable

Retailer’s Cost Structure

For the 38,000 units sold on line,Price = $7, Per Unit cost = $6 and Profit = $1

Profit = $38

Page 31: Deliberations Begin for the Economics Prize According to Michael Kremer, what has discouraged AIDS research?  The lower prices drug manufacturers charge

Retailer’s Net Profit

Profit = $38 Loss = $28.75-

Net Profit = $9.25

Page 32: Deliberations Begin for the Economics Prize According to Michael Kremer, what has discouraged AIDS research?  The lower prices drug manufacturers charge

Market

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

Quantity

Pric

e

In-store Demand

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

Quantity

Pric

e

On-line Demand

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

QuantityPr

ice

Market demand for a product is divided between in-store and on-line.

Page 33: Deliberations Begin for the Economics Prize According to Michael Kremer, what has discouraged AIDS research?  The lower prices drug manufacturers charge

In Store

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

0 10 20 30 40 50

Quanity

Cost

On-line

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

0 10 20 30 40 50

Quanity

Cos

t

Average Variable

Marginal

Marginal

Average

Retailer’s Cost Structure

Average

Average Variable

AC = P

AC = P

Since the cost structure differs between in-store and on-line sales, the zero profit price varies.

..

Demand

Demand

Page 34: Deliberations Begin for the Economics Prize According to Michael Kremer, what has discouraged AIDS research?  The lower prices drug manufacturers charge

Market

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

Quantity

Pric

e

In-store Demand

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

Quantity

Pric

e

On-line Demand

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

QuantityPr

ice

Some people will switch from in-store when to on-line because of the lower price.

Demand Demand

Demand

Page 35: Deliberations Begin for the Economics Prize According to Michael Kremer, what has discouraged AIDS research?  The lower prices drug manufacturers charge

In Store

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

0 10 20 30 40 50

Quanity

Cost

On-line

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

0 10 20 30 40 50

Quanity

Cos

t

Average Variable

Marginal Marginal

Average

Retailer’s Cost Structure

AverageAverage Variable

The cost structure for selling in-store is higher than the cost structure for selling on-line.

Demand

Demand

Page 36: Deliberations Begin for the Economics Prize According to Michael Kremer, what has discouraged AIDS research?  The lower prices drug manufacturers charge

In Store

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

0 10 20 30 40 50

Quanity

Cost

On-line

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

0 10 20 30 40 50

Quanity

Cos

t

Average Variable

Marginal Marginal

Average

Retailer’s Cost Structure

Average

Average Variable

The cost structure for selling in-store is higher than the cost structure for selling on-line.

Page 37: Deliberations Begin for the Economics Prize According to Michael Kremer, what has discouraged AIDS research?  The lower prices drug manufacturers charge

In the New Economics, the Economy Has Little to Do with It

What were the major findings in Steven Levitt’s paper on legalization of abortion and the decrease in crime rates?A negative correlation between legalization of abortion and crime rate.

A negative correlation between number of abortions and crime rate.

Page 38: Deliberations Begin for the Economics Prize According to Michael Kremer, what has discouraged AIDS research?  The lower prices drug manufacturers charge

In the New Economics, the Economy Has Little to Do with It

How does Levitt’s interpret the findings?The legalization of abortion in the early 1970’s played a key role in lowering crime by reducing the number of unwanted youths.Abortion explained nearly half of the decline in crime rates in the 1990’s.Many women getting abortions tended to raise children who committed crimes as teens.Abortion might have reduced the number of unwanted teens who came of age in the 1980’s and 1990’s.

Page 39: Deliberations Begin for the Economics Prize According to Michael Kremer, what has discouraged AIDS research?  The lower prices drug manufacturers charge

In the New Economics, the Economy Has Little to Do with It

What are the strengths of the study?They compared changes in crime rates across states that legalized abortion at different times.

Hypothetical Example: 1980-1985

StateAbortion

Legalized (Y/N)Decrease in Crime Rate

1 Y 202 Y 223 N 154 N 185 Y 25

Page 40: Deliberations Begin for the Economics Prize According to Michael Kremer, what has discouraged AIDS research?  The lower prices drug manufacturers charge

In the New Economics, the Economy Has Little to Do with It

Crime decreased more in states with legalized abortion.

Hypothetical Example

StateAbortion

Legalized (Y/N)Decrease in Crime Rate

1 Y 202 Y 223 N 154 N 185 Y 25

Page 41: Deliberations Begin for the Economics Prize According to Michael Kremer, what has discouraged AIDS research?  The lower prices drug manufacturers charge

In the New Economics, the Economy Has Little to Do with It

What are the strengths of the study?They compared in abortion rates to decreases in crime rates.

Hypothetical Example: 1990

StateAbortion

RateDecrease in Crime Rate

1 10 202 11 223 5 154 8 185 12 25

Page 42: Deliberations Begin for the Economics Prize According to Michael Kremer, what has discouraged AIDS research?  The lower prices drug manufacturers charge

In the New Economics, the Economy Has Little to Do with It

Crime decreased more in states with higher rates of abortion.

Hypothetical Example

StateAbortion

RateDecrease in Crime Rate

1 10 202 11 223 5 154 8 185 12 25

Page 43: Deliberations Begin for the Economics Prize According to Michael Kremer, what has discouraged AIDS research?  The lower prices drug manufacturers charge

In the New Economics, the Economy Has Little to Do with It

What are the shortcomings of the study?

Does not adequately estimate the impact of the recession of the handgun and crack epidemic of the late 1980’s and early 1990’s.

A decrease in the use of crack in the late 1990’s would also decrease the crime rate.

Page 44: Deliberations Begin for the Economics Prize According to Michael Kremer, what has discouraged AIDS research?  The lower prices drug manufacturers charge

In the New Economics, the Economy Has Little to Do with It

What are the social implications of the study?Affluent older women did not benefit most from legalized abortion.Crime may be curtailed by limiting the number of births among a few select groups.