Delaware Potential Study Update Preliminary Results

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10-year EE potential study for the period 2020-2029EE potential for electricity and natural gas (energy and peak demand) for the residential, commercial, and industrial sectorsEstimates focused on economic potential and maximum achievable potential scenarios

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Study Overview

Technical

Economic

MaximumAchievable

Program

The theoretical maximum amount of energy use that could be displaced by efficiency

Subset that is cost-effective

Subset that is achievable considering market barriers, and program costs, given the most aggressive program scenario possible

Subset of achievable, given constraints in implementing a particular portfolio of programs

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Technical / Economic / Achievable / Program Potential

Leveraged recent analysis for the 2019 Energy Efficiency Potential in New JerseyUpdated to reflect key current DE parameters:

– Load forecasts / sales disaggregation– Avoided costs

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Major Inputs to the Potential Study Model

Delaware’s Past and Present Potential Studies

Similar max achievable results to prior study – lots of potential in Delaware! Higher savings across the board early in current study’s time horizon

– Due to EE program maturation in Delaware and across the industryLower electric energy savings (~33%) later in current study’s time horizon

– Some markets have begun transforming in past five yearsSimilar electric capacity and natural gas savings later in current study’s time horizon

– More passive demand savings in current study’s measure mixLower estimated potential in a specific years in current study

– Prior study’s estimated program ramp-up for Delaware not yet realizedNote that forecasted sales are a bit lower in the current study as well, which shifts total potential savings downward, all else equal

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Economic & Maximum Achievable Electric Potential, Relative to Baseline Forecast

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Economic & Maximum Achievable Gas Potential, Relative to Baseline Forecast

Economic & Maximum Achievable, Electric Incremental Annual Potential as Percent of Baseline Forecast, 2020–2029

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Year Total Res C&I Total Res C&I2020 7.3% 9.8% 5.4% 2.2% 2.9% 1.7%2021 7.1% 9.7% 5.2% 2.8% 3.6% 2.2%2022 4.4% 4.5% 4.3% 1.9% 1.7% 2.0%2023 4.3% 4.5% 4.1% 2.1% 1.9% 2.2%2024 4.2% 4.4% 4.0% 2.3% 2.1% 2.4%2025 4.1% 4.4% 3.9% 2.4% 2.1% 2.5%2026 4.0% 4.4% 3.8% 2.4% 2.1% 2.6%2027 4.0% 4.4% 3.7% 2.4% 2.1% 2.7%2028 4.0% 4.4% 3.7% 2.5% 2.1% 2.7%2029 4.0% 4.4% 3.7% 2.5% 2.1% 2.8%

Average 4.7% 5.5% 4.2% 2.3% 2.3% 2.4%

Max Achievable PotentialEconomic Potential

Economic & Maximum Achievable, Natural Gas Incremental Annual Potential as Percent of Baseline Forecast, 2020–2029

99

Year Total Res C&I Total Res C&I2020 2.2% 2.4% 2.1% 0.8% 1.0% 0.8%2021 2.2% 2.2% 2.2% 1.0% 1.1% 1.0%2022 2.2% 2.2% 2.3% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2%2023 2.2% 2.1% 2.2% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3%2024 2.2% 2.0% 2.2% 1.4% 1.5% 1.4%2025 2.1% 2.0% 2.1% 1.4% 1.5% 1.4%2026 2.1% 1.9% 2.1% 1.4% 1.5% 1.4%2027 2.0% 1.8% 2.1% 1.4% 1.5% 1.4%2028 2.0% 1.8% 2.1% 1.4% 1.5% 1.4%2029 2.0% 1.7% 2.0% 1.4% 1.5% 1.4%

Average 2.1% 2.0% 2.1% 1.3% 1.4% 1.2%

Max Achievable PotentialEconomic Potential

Residential Maximum Achievable Electric Potential by Building Type, 2029 (MWh)

1010

Residential Maximum Achievable Electric Potential by End Use, 2029 (MWh)

1111

Residential Maximum Achievable Natural Gas Potential by Building Type, 2029 (BBtu)

1212

Residential Maximum Achievable Natural Gas Potential by End Use, 2029 (BBtu)

1313

Commercial Maximum Achievable Electric Potential by Building Type, 2029 (MWh)

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Commercial Electric Maximum Achievable Potential Savings by End Use, 2029(MWh)

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Commercial Maximum Achievable Natural Gas Potential by Building Type, 2029 (BBtu)

1616

Commercial Maximum Achievable Natural Gas Potential by End Use, 2029 (BBtu)

1717

Industrial Maximum Achievable Electric Potential Savings by End Use, 2029 (MWh)

1818

Industrial Maximum Achievable Natural Gas Potential by End Use, 2029 (BBtu)

1919

“Top Ten” – Residential Maximum Achievable Electric Potential

2020

Measure Name Cumulative MWh Percent of Total Baseline Description

Home Energy Reports 48,432 9.4% Typical home not receiving HERs

1.5 GPM Low Flow Showerhead 45,032 8.7% Non-low flow showerhead

Energy Star Refrigerators and Freezers 42,273 8.2%Baseline or Failed non-ENERGY STAR refrigerators or freezers

ENERGY STAR Clothes Washer with Gas Secondary Fuel 35,261 6.8% Existing Non-ENERGY STAR Clothes Washer

Water Heater Jacket Insulation 32,169 6.2% Electric water heater with no insulation jacket

Smart Thermostat 29,467 5.7% Tier 1 programmable thermostat

Air Source Heat Pump 28,583 5.5% Existing air source heat pump system

Advanced Tier 2 Power Strips 22,716 4.4%Audio-visual home entertainment systems connected to wall outlet or standard power strip.

ENERGY STAR Clothes Washer 22,096 4.3% Existing Non-ENERGY STAR Clothes Washer

ENERGY STAR Dehumidifier 18,076 3.5% Old or previously non-existent dehumidifier

“Top Ten” – Residential Maximum Achievable Natural Gas Potential

2121

Measure Name Cumulative BBtu Percent of Total Baseline Description

Smart Thermostat with Electric Secondary Fuel 231.7 25.3% Tier 1 programmable thermostat

High Efficiency Furnace 221.9 24.2% Baseline furnace, 85%

Storage Gas Water Heater 158.6 17.3%Failed storage gas water heater with federal minimum efficiency standard

High Efficiency Boiler 82.2 9.0% Baseline boiler, 80%

Low Flow Showerhead, Gas DHW 78.4 8.6% Existing 2.5 GPM showerhead

Home Energy Reports 62.8 6.9% Typical home not receiving HERs

Low Flow Showerhead, Gas DHW 22.9 2.5% Existing 2.5 GPM showerhead

High Efficiency Furnace 19.3 2.1% Baseline furnace, 85%

Electronic Ignition Hearth 16.0 1.8%Existing hearth/artificial fireplace using a standing pilot

ENERGY STAR Clothes Washer with Gas Secondary Fuel 14.8 1.6% Existing Non-ENERGY STAR Clothes Washer

“Top Ten” – C&I Maximum Achievable Electric Potential

2222

Measure Name Cumulative MWh Percent of Total Percent of TotalInstall high efficiency lighting throughout facility with Gas Secondary Fuel 145,735 9.5% That facility without high efficiency lightingInstall High E Motors and VSDs on Industrial fans, blower and pumps 82,442 5.4%

Those fans, blowers, and pumps without High E Motors and VSDs

VFD on HVAC System 68,673 4.5%Weighted average of baseline control type on HVAC motor

LED Tube Replacement Lamps with Gas Secondary Fuel 54,057 3.5% Weighted average of existing T8 fluorescent fixtures

Interior Lighting Controls with Gas Secondary Fuel 48,868 3.2% Manual control

RetroCommissioning 43,632 2.8% Current building operations

Evaporator Fan Motor Replacement 41,320 2.7%PSC evaporator fan motor in refrigerated/freezer display cases or walk-in coolers

LED Linear Fixtures with Gas Secondary Fuel 41,206 2.7% Average of typical T8 fluorescent fixtures

EMS - RET 37,703 2.5% No Energy Management System (EMS)

Evaporator Fan Speed Controls 37,282 2.4%Uncontrolled ECM evaporator fan motors in walk-in coolers and freezers

“Top Ten” – C&I Maximum Achievable Natural Gas Potential

2323

Measure Name Cumulative BBtu Percent of Total Percent of Total

Increase efficiency of NG process heating 1,541 28.7%Same process with existing NG process heating efficiency

Increase the efficiency of gas space heating 539 10.0%Same space with existing gas space heating efficiency

Demand Control Ventilation 409 7.6% Existing DX or water cooled air systems without DCV

Boiler 353 6.6% Code Compliant BoilerStrategic Energy Management Year 1 with Gas Secondary Fuel 314 5.8% Industrial facility without SEM

Furnace 269 5.0% Non-condensing standard efficiency furnace

EMS - RET 212 3.9% No Energy Management System (EMS)Strategic Energy Management Year 2 with Gas Secondary Fuel 201 3.8% Industrial facility without SEM

RetroCommissioning 179 3.3% Current building operations

Smart Tstat RET 171 3.2% Non-wifi programmable thermostat

Questions?

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Appendix

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Cumulative Economic & Maximum Achievable Electric Potential by Sector, 2029

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Year ScenarioResidential

Savings (MWh)

Residential Savings

(% of Sales)C&I Savings

(MWh)C&I Savings (% of Sales)

Total Savings (MWh)

Total Savings (% of Sales)

Economic Potential

1,215,839 23% 2,566,665 36% 3,782,504 31%

Max Achievable Potential

515,438 10% 1,536,686 22% 2,052,123 17%

(MW) (% of Load) (MW) (% of Load) (MW) (% of Load)Economic Potential

457 Not Available 507 Not Available 964 5%

Max Achievable Potential

262 Not Available 288 Not Available 550 3%

Cumulative Energy, 2029

Cumulative Peak Demand

Reduction, 2029

Cumulative Economic & Maximum Achievable Gas Potential by Sector, 2029

2727

Year Scenario

Residential Savings (BBtu)

Residential Savings

(% of Sales)C&I Savings

(BBtu)C&I Savings (% of Sales)

Total Savings (BBtu)

Total Savings (% of Sales)

Economic Potential

1,262 11% 9,234 20% 10,496 18%

Max Achievable Potential

916 8% 5,368 11% 6,284 11%

(Peak BBtu) (% of Load) (Peak BBtu) (% of Load) (Peak BBtu) (% of Load)Economic Potential

16 Not Available 117 Not Available 133 Not Available

Max Achievable Potential

12 Not Available 68 Not Available 80 Not Available

Cumulative Energy, 2029

Cumulative Peak Demand

Reduction, 2029

Cumulative Maximum Achievable Societal Cost Test by Sector, 2029

2828

Sector/ProgramCosts

(Millions$)Benefits

(Millions$)Net Benefits (Millions$) BCR

Residential $ 230 $ 539 $ 309 2.34 New Construction 17$ 39$ $ 21 2.24 Equipment Replacemen 130$ 301$ $ 171 2.32 Retrofit 83$ 199$ $ 116 2.40 Commerical & Industri $ 670 $ 1,419 $ 749 2.12 New Construction 55$ 112$ $ 57 2.05 Equipment Replacemen 122$ 280$ $ 159 2.31 Retrofit 493$ 1,027$ $ 533 2.08 Total 900$ 1,958$ 1,058$ 2.18

Appendix I: Select

Prior study first-year max achievable:

Prior study 10th-year max achievable:

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Current study first-year max achievable:

Current study 10th-year max achievable:

Current study 2024 max achievable:

Year Mwh MW MMBtu2015 240,450 30 284,952

Year Mwh MW MMBtu2024 3,336,373 556 5,316,256

Year MWh MW MMBtu2020 266,116 54 450,535

Year MWh MW MMBtu2024 1,025,679 255 2,918,592

Year MWh MW MMBtu2029 2,052,123 550 6,283,680

Appendix II: Full Max Achievable Cumulative Savings Comparison

Prior Study Max Achievable Results

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Current Study Max Achievable Results

Year Mwh MW MMBtu2015 240,450 30 284,952 2016 452,386 62 548,550 2017 758,819 107 952,093 2018 1,151,386 168 1,502,742 2019 1,558,647 234 2,131,309 2020 1,957,307 301 2,793,044 2021 2,331,957 367 3,443,872 2022 2,686,245 431 4,082,103 2023 3,025,372 494 4,709,721 2024 3,336,373 556 5,316,256 2025 3,620,967 617 5,903,719

Year MWh MW MMBtu2020 266,116 54 450,535 2021 551,495 119 933,959 2022 706,129 161 1,525,715 2023 877,026 208 2,193,504 2024 1,025,679 255 2,918,592 2025 1,152,279 299 3,638,087 2026 1,381,292 362 4,331,652 2027 1,612,860 426 5,004,561 2028 1,834,207 489 5,642,205 2029 2,052,123 550 6,283,680