defining risk and its role in disaster management · 2020-06-10 · disaster risk management threat...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: DEFINING RISK AND ITS ROLE IN DISASTER MANAGEMENT · 2020-06-10 · Disaster Risk Management Threat recognition - risk and vulnerability identification Risk analysis and assessment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050112/5f49770f7ac055506c78945c/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
DEFINING RISK AND ITS ROLE IN DISASTER MANAGEMENT
Niru NirupamaAssociate Professor and Graduate Program Director
Disaster & Emergency ManagementYork University
Toronto
Since 2005
2000-02
![Page 2: DEFINING RISK AND ITS ROLE IN DISASTER MANAGEMENT · 2020-06-10 · Disaster Risk Management Threat recognition - risk and vulnerability identification Risk analysis and assessment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050112/5f49770f7ac055506c78945c/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
RISK
Hazard or threat and uncertainty
Expected loss
Probability, impact
Probability, vulnerability, social factors
Likelihood and exposure to
hazard
Frequency, consequences, preparedness
Uncertainty, elements at risk,
community perception
![Page 3: DEFINING RISK AND ITS ROLE IN DISASTER MANAGEMENT · 2020-06-10 · Disaster Risk Management Threat recognition - risk and vulnerability identification Risk analysis and assessment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050112/5f49770f7ac055506c78945c/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
CONVENTIONAL APPROACH
𝑅 = 𝐻 × 𝑉
Here, R = risk; H = hazard, determined as a probability (or likelihood) of the occurrence of hazard; V = vulnerability (also loss, impact or consequences).
![Page 4: DEFINING RISK AND ITS ROLE IN DISASTER MANAGEMENT · 2020-06-10 · Disaster Risk Management Threat recognition - risk and vulnerability identification Risk analysis and assessment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050112/5f49770f7ac055506c78945c/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Risk evaluation equationVariable other than probability and impact
Proposed by
x (> 1) = people’s perception
Whyte and Burton (1982)
𝑅 = 𝑃 ∙ 𝑆 S = severity Government of Michigan (2001)
𝑅 = 𝑝 ∙ 𝑉 ∙ 𝑛 n=social consequences Ferrier and Haque, 2003
Preparedness or mitigation are measurable measures
Smith (2004)
= risk aversion factor Schneider (2006)
𝑅 = 𝐻 ∙ 𝑉 ∙ 𝑀M = manageability or ability of humans
Noson (2009)
𝑅 = 𝐻 ∙ 𝐸𝑙𝑒𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑠 𝑎𝑡 𝑅𝑖𝑠𝑘 ∙ 𝑉𝐸𝑙𝑒𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑠 𝑎𝑡 𝑅𝑖𝑠𝑘 = physically exposed assets
Smith and Petley (2009)
𝑅 = 𝐻 ∙ (𝑉 ∙ 𝑐𝑝)cp = community perception
Nirupama (2012)
xLpR
)( mitigationsspreparedne
LHRisk
)(xfLpR )(xf
![Page 5: DEFINING RISK AND ITS ROLE IN DISASTER MANAGEMENT · 2020-06-10 · Disaster Risk Management Threat recognition - risk and vulnerability identification Risk analysis and assessment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050112/5f49770f7ac055506c78945c/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Disaster Risk Management
Threat recognition - risk and vulnerability
identificationRisk analysis and
assessment
Risk control options -
structural, non structural,
cost/benefit analysis
Strategic planning -economic,
political and institutional
support considerations
Response, recovery,
reconstruction, rehabilitation
Knowledge management,
sustainable development
Resilience building,
community participation
![Page 6: DEFINING RISK AND ITS ROLE IN DISASTER MANAGEMENT · 2020-06-10 · Disaster Risk Management Threat recognition - risk and vulnerability identification Risk analysis and assessment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050112/5f49770f7ac055506c78945c/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Threat recognition - risk and vulnerability identification
Risk from natural and technological hazards Recognizing vulnerabilities
![Page 7: DEFINING RISK AND ITS ROLE IN DISASTER MANAGEMENT · 2020-06-10 · Disaster Risk Management Threat recognition - risk and vulnerability identification Risk analysis and assessment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050112/5f49770f7ac055506c78945c/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Risk analysis and assessment –Qualitative approach
Pressure and Release Model (Wisner et al 2004)
Nirupama, N. (2012). Risk and Vulnerability Assessment – A Comprehensive Approach, International Journal of Disaster Resilience in the Built Environment, Emerald, 3:2.
![Page 8: DEFINING RISK AND ITS ROLE IN DISASTER MANAGEMENT · 2020-06-10 · Disaster Risk Management Threat recognition - risk and vulnerability identification Risk analysis and assessment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050112/5f49770f7ac055506c78945c/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Access to Resources
ModelWisner et al 2004
![Page 9: DEFINING RISK AND ITS ROLE IN DISASTER MANAGEMENT · 2020-06-10 · Disaster Risk Management Threat recognition - risk and vulnerability identification Risk analysis and assessment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050112/5f49770f7ac055506c78945c/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Quantitative ApproachesHRVA - Hazard Risk Vulnerability Assessment
Understanding the magnitude, frequency of occurrence, and severity of consequences and prioritization of risks
![Page 10: DEFINING RISK AND ITS ROLE IN DISASTER MANAGEMENT · 2020-06-10 · Disaster Risk Management Threat recognition - risk and vulnerability identification Risk analysis and assessment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050112/5f49770f7ac055506c78945c/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Measuring Impact
Category Rank Description Criteria
Fatality 1 Very Low 0-4 deaths: 2 reported
Injury 2 Low 4-50 people: 24 reported
Critical Facility 3 High Evacuation <10,000 people: 12,500 reported
Lifelines 2 Low Disruption 1-2 days without Gas & Electricity
PropertyDamage
3 High Localized Severe Damage: Contained to a 2 km radius and involved over 580 Homes
Environmental Impact
3 High Localized Severe Damage: Smoke, Asbestos and Burning Metal affected residents homes & businesses
Economic/Social Impact
3 High Extended & Widespread: Lawsuits continue for properties damaged, area residents experienced trauma and fear from threat of asbestos contamination
![Page 11: DEFINING RISK AND ITS ROLE IN DISASTER MANAGEMENT · 2020-06-10 · Disaster Risk Management Threat recognition - risk and vulnerability identification Risk analysis and assessment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050112/5f49770f7ac055506c78945c/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Risk Prioritization
![Page 12: DEFINING RISK AND ITS ROLE IN DISASTER MANAGEMENT · 2020-06-10 · Disaster Risk Management Threat recognition - risk and vulnerability identification Risk analysis and assessment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050112/5f49770f7ac055506c78945c/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
HIRA – Hazard Identification and Risk Analysis
Risk = Frequency*Consequence*Changing RiskChanging Risk = Change in Frequency + Change in Vulnerability
![Page 13: DEFINING RISK AND ITS ROLE IN DISASTER MANAGEMENT · 2020-06-10 · Disaster Risk Management Threat recognition - risk and vulnerability identification Risk analysis and assessment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050112/5f49770f7ac055506c78945c/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Measuring Impact
• Social Impacts
• Property Damage
• Critical Infrastructure Service Disruptions/Impact
• Environmental Damage
• Business/Financial Impact
• Psychosocial Impacts
![Page 14: DEFINING RISK AND ITS ROLE IN DISASTER MANAGEMENT · 2020-06-10 · Disaster Risk Management Threat recognition - risk and vulnerability identification Risk analysis and assessment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050112/5f49770f7ac055506c78945c/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Risk Prioritization
![Page 15: DEFINING RISK AND ITS ROLE IN DISASTER MANAGEMENT · 2020-06-10 · Disaster Risk Management Threat recognition - risk and vulnerability identification Risk analysis and assessment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050112/5f49770f7ac055506c78945c/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
FEMA – FEDEARL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY
Category Rating Score Weight Total
History High10 2 20
VulnerabilityPeople Medium
5
15/2
= 7.5
5 37.5
Property High10
Max ThreatHigh
10 10 100
Probability Medium5 7 35
Total Risk192.5
![Page 16: DEFINING RISK AND ITS ROLE IN DISASTER MANAGEMENT · 2020-06-10 · Disaster Risk Management Threat recognition - risk and vulnerability identification Risk analysis and assessment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050112/5f49770f7ac055506c78945c/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Risk Prioritization
Develop risk reduction plans for these hazards
No immediate need to develop risk reduction plans
Total Risk =100
![Page 17: DEFINING RISK AND ITS ROLE IN DISASTER MANAGEMENT · 2020-06-10 · Disaster Risk Management Threat recognition - risk and vulnerability identification Risk analysis and assessment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050112/5f49770f7ac055506c78945c/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
SMUG – SERIOUSNESS, MANAGEABILITY, URGENCY, GROWTH
Seriousness High = 4-5 Medium = 2-3 Low = 0-1
Manageability High = 7+ Medium = 5-7 Low = 0-4
Urgency High = >20 yrs Medium = <20 Low = 100 yrs
Growth High = 3 Medium = 2 Low = 1
SMUG RATINGS
![Page 18: DEFINING RISK AND ITS ROLE IN DISASTER MANAGEMENT · 2020-06-10 · Disaster Risk Management Threat recognition - risk and vulnerability identification Risk analysis and assessment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050112/5f49770f7ac055506c78945c/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
18
Hazard S M U G Total
Utility Failure - Communications 3 6 3 3 15
Flooding 3 4 3 3 13
Public Health Emergency 3 5 2 2 12
Utility Failure - Power 2 4 3 3 12
Storm Surge 2 3 2 2 9
Transportation - Road 2 1 3 2 7
Civil Unrest 1 3 1 1 6
![Page 19: DEFINING RISK AND ITS ROLE IN DISASTER MANAGEMENT · 2020-06-10 · Disaster Risk Management Threat recognition - risk and vulnerability identification Risk analysis and assessment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050112/5f49770f7ac055506c78945c/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Risk Analysis the 2008 Toronto
Propane Explosion Case
Armenakis, C. and Nirupama, N. (2013). Estimating spatial disaster risk in urban environments, Geomatics, Natural Hazards and Risk, Taylor & Francis, 4 (4): 289-298.
![Page 20: DEFINING RISK AND ITS ROLE IN DISASTER MANAGEMENT · 2020-06-10 · Disaster Risk Management Threat recognition - risk and vulnerability identification Risk analysis and assessment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050112/5f49770f7ac055506c78945c/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
HAZARD ZONING
• For an explosion caused by a propane storage tank of up to 9.5 tonne (5,000 USWG) capacity, the projectile distance is about 320m.
• The recommended evacuation zone is 2.5 times the projectile distance.
![Page 21: DEFINING RISK AND ITS ROLE IN DISASTER MANAGEMENT · 2020-06-10 · Disaster Risk Management Threat recognition - risk and vulnerability identification Risk analysis and assessment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050112/5f49770f7ac055506c78945c/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
![Page 22: DEFINING RISK AND ITS ROLE IN DISASTER MANAGEMENT · 2020-06-10 · Disaster Risk Management Threat recognition - risk and vulnerability identification Risk analysis and assessment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050112/5f49770f7ac055506c78945c/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
VULNERABILITIES
• Social
• Physical
• Economic
• Critical Infrastructure
• Environmental
![Page 23: DEFINING RISK AND ITS ROLE IN DISASTER MANAGEMENT · 2020-06-10 · Disaster Risk Management Threat recognition - risk and vulnerability identification Risk analysis and assessment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050112/5f49770f7ac055506c78945c/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
PHYSICAL
![Page 24: DEFINING RISK AND ITS ROLE IN DISASTER MANAGEMENT · 2020-06-10 · Disaster Risk Management Threat recognition - risk and vulnerability identification Risk analysis and assessment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050112/5f49770f7ac055506c78945c/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
ECONOMIC
![Page 25: DEFINING RISK AND ITS ROLE IN DISASTER MANAGEMENT · 2020-06-10 · Disaster Risk Management Threat recognition - risk and vulnerability identification Risk analysis and assessment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050112/5f49770f7ac055506c78945c/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE
![Page 26: DEFINING RISK AND ITS ROLE IN DISASTER MANAGEMENT · 2020-06-10 · Disaster Risk Management Threat recognition - risk and vulnerability identification Risk analysis and assessment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050112/5f49770f7ac055506c78945c/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
SPATIAL RISK ASSESSMENT MODEL
![Page 27: DEFINING RISK AND ITS ROLE IN DISASTER MANAGEMENT · 2020-06-10 · Disaster Risk Management Threat recognition - risk and vulnerability identification Risk analysis and assessment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050112/5f49770f7ac055506c78945c/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
RISK ESTIMATION
i = DA, j = hazard zone, and n is the number of DAs in each zone;Rnj = spatial risk index of all DAs located in zone j;Hj = relative hazard zone index;SVji = social vulnerability component;EVji = economic vulnerability component;PVji = physical vulnerability component;CIji = critical infrastructure component;0.25 = average of the total four individual vulnerability types.
![Page 28: DEFINING RISK AND ITS ROLE IN DISASTER MANAGEMENT · 2020-06-10 · Disaster Risk Management Threat recognition - risk and vulnerability identification Risk analysis and assessment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050112/5f49770f7ac055506c78945c/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
![Page 29: DEFINING RISK AND ITS ROLE IN DISASTER MANAGEMENT · 2020-06-10 · Disaster Risk Management Threat recognition - risk and vulnerability identification Risk analysis and assessment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050112/5f49770f7ac055506c78945c/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
(red = very high risk; yellow = high risk; blue = medium risk; greyish green = low risk)
Risk Prioritization
![Page 30: DEFINING RISK AND ITS ROLE IN DISASTER MANAGEMENT · 2020-06-10 · Disaster Risk Management Threat recognition - risk and vulnerability identification Risk analysis and assessment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050112/5f49770f7ac055506c78945c/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
CONVENTIONAL APPROACH APPLIED TO ONTARIO HAZARDS
Nirupama, N. (2012). Risk and Vulnerability Assessment – A Comprehensive Approach, International Journal of Disaster Resilience in the Built Environment, Emerald, 3:2.
![Page 31: DEFINING RISK AND ITS ROLE IN DISASTER MANAGEMENT · 2020-06-10 · Disaster Risk Management Threat recognition - risk and vulnerability identification Risk analysis and assessment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050112/5f49770f7ac055506c78945c/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
ACCOUNTING FOR COMMUNITY PERCEPTION
![Page 32: DEFINING RISK AND ITS ROLE IN DISASTER MANAGEMENT · 2020-06-10 · Disaster Risk Management Threat recognition - risk and vulnerability identification Risk analysis and assessment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050112/5f49770f7ac055506c78945c/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
![Page 33: DEFINING RISK AND ITS ROLE IN DISASTER MANAGEMENT · 2020-06-10 · Disaster Risk Management Threat recognition - risk and vulnerability identification Risk analysis and assessment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050112/5f49770f7ac055506c78945c/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
33
Risk control options - structural, non structural, cost/benefit analysis
The 1997 Red River Flood
Simonovic, S. and Nirupama (2005). A Spatial Multi-Objective Decision
Making under Uncertainty for Water Resources Management, Journal of
Hydroinformatics, 7 (2), 117-133.
![Page 34: DEFINING RISK AND ITS ROLE IN DISASTER MANAGEMENT · 2020-06-10 · Disaster Risk Management Threat recognition - risk and vulnerability identification Risk analysis and assessment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050112/5f49770f7ac055506c78945c/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
34
Criteria
#1: Minimize flood depth
#2: Minimize damage - buildings, roads, crops
Alternatives# 1: Dike to protect the City of St. Adolphe.# 2: Raise floodway gate by 1m.# 3: Lower floodway gate by 1m.
Multiple decision makers’ preferences
![Page 35: DEFINING RISK AND ITS ROLE IN DISASTER MANAGEMENT · 2020-06-10 · Disaster Risk Management Threat recognition - risk and vulnerability identification Risk analysis and assessment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050112/5f49770f7ac055506c78945c/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
35
Flood depth for simulated alternative #2
![Page 36: DEFINING RISK AND ITS ROLE IN DISASTER MANAGEMENT · 2020-06-10 · Disaster Risk Management Threat recognition - risk and vulnerability identification Risk analysis and assessment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050112/5f49770f7ac055506c78945c/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
36
Flooded buildings for simulated flood protection alternative #2
![Page 37: DEFINING RISK AND ITS ROLE IN DISASTER MANAGEMENT · 2020-06-10 · Disaster Risk Management Threat recognition - risk and vulnerability identification Risk analysis and assessment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050112/5f49770f7ac055506c78945c/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
37
Flooded fields for simulated flood protection alternative #2
![Page 38: DEFINING RISK AND ITS ROLE IN DISASTER MANAGEMENT · 2020-06-10 · Disaster Risk Management Threat recognition - risk and vulnerability identification Risk analysis and assessment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050112/5f49770f7ac055506c78945c/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
38
Flooded roads for simulated flood protection alternative #2
![Page 39: DEFINING RISK AND ITS ROLE IN DISASTER MANAGEMENT · 2020-06-10 · Disaster Risk Management Threat recognition - risk and vulnerability identification Risk analysis and assessment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050112/5f49770f7ac055506c78945c/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
39
$ Damage
53865947028334487376879 23 xxxy
30000025.261889.18 2 LLrd
priceAcpyieldad **)(*)1(
Buildings
Roads
Crops
![Page 40: DEFINING RISK AND ITS ROLE IN DISASTER MANAGEMENT · 2020-06-10 · Disaster Risk Management Threat recognition - risk and vulnerability identification Risk analysis and assessment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050112/5f49770f7ac055506c78945c/html5/thumbnails/40.jpg)
40
Water surface elevation for three alternatives
Alternative Total discharge at
floodway entry
point (m3/sec)
Water surface
elevation (m)
Dike 3650 232.89
Floodway 1 4730 233.83
Floodway 2 2900 231.71
![Page 41: DEFINING RISK AND ITS ROLE IN DISASTER MANAGEMENT · 2020-06-10 · Disaster Risk Management Threat recognition - risk and vulnerability identification Risk analysis and assessment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050112/5f49770f7ac055506c78945c/html5/thumbnails/41.jpg)
41
Multi-Criteria Decision Making using
Compromise Programming
Possible solutions
![Page 42: DEFINING RISK AND ITS ROLE IN DISASTER MANAGEMENT · 2020-06-10 · Disaster Risk Management Threat recognition - risk and vulnerability identification Risk analysis and assessment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050112/5f49770f7ac055506c78945c/html5/thumbnails/42.jpg)
42
![Page 43: DEFINING RISK AND ITS ROLE IN DISASTER MANAGEMENT · 2020-06-10 · Disaster Risk Management Threat recognition - risk and vulnerability identification Risk analysis and assessment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050112/5f49770f7ac055506c78945c/html5/thumbnails/43.jpg)
43
Ranking of Alternatives
![Page 44: DEFINING RISK AND ITS ROLE IN DISASTER MANAGEMENT · 2020-06-10 · Disaster Risk Management Threat recognition - risk and vulnerability identification Risk analysis and assessment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050112/5f49770f7ac055506c78945c/html5/thumbnails/44.jpg)
Strategic planning - economic, political and institutional support considerations
Nirupama, N. (2013). Vertical evacuation during cyclones: suitable for developing countries. Natural Hazards.
69:1137-1142
Vertical
Evacuation
![Page 45: DEFINING RISK AND ITS ROLE IN DISASTER MANAGEMENT · 2020-06-10 · Disaster Risk Management Threat recognition - risk and vulnerability identification Risk analysis and assessment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050112/5f49770f7ac055506c78945c/html5/thumbnails/45.jpg)
Response, recovery, reconstruction, and rehabilitation
Fatalities of historical winter storms in Eastern Canada during 1900 to 2014
![Page 46: DEFINING RISK AND ITS ROLE IN DISASTER MANAGEMENT · 2020-06-10 · Disaster Risk Management Threat recognition - risk and vulnerability identification Risk analysis and assessment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050112/5f49770f7ac055506c78945c/html5/thumbnails/46.jpg)
![Page 47: DEFINING RISK AND ITS ROLE IN DISASTER MANAGEMENT · 2020-06-10 · Disaster Risk Management Threat recognition - risk and vulnerability identification Risk analysis and assessment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050112/5f49770f7ac055506c78945c/html5/thumbnails/47.jpg)
Knowledge management and sustainable development
𝑅𝑀𝐼 = (𝑅𝑀𝐼𝑅𝐼 + 𝑅𝑀𝐼𝑅𝑅 + 𝑅𝑀𝐼𝐷𝑀 + 𝑅𝑀𝐼𝐹𝑃)/4
Cardona (2002)
RMI = Risk Management Index
𝑅𝑀𝐼𝑅𝐼 = risk identification, includes objective and perceived risks;𝑅𝑀𝐼𝑅𝑅 = risk reduction measures including prevention and mitigation;𝑅𝑀𝐼𝐷𝑀 = measures of response and recovery; and𝑅𝑀𝐼𝐹𝑃 = governance and financial protection measures.
![Page 48: DEFINING RISK AND ITS ROLE IN DISASTER MANAGEMENT · 2020-06-10 · Disaster Risk Management Threat recognition - risk and vulnerability identification Risk analysis and assessment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050112/5f49770f7ac055506c78945c/html5/thumbnails/48.jpg)
48
Upper Thames
River Watershed
1974
2000
1990
![Page 49: DEFINING RISK AND ITS ROLE IN DISASTER MANAGEMENT · 2020-06-10 · Disaster Risk Management Threat recognition - risk and vulnerability identification Risk analysis and assessment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050112/5f49770f7ac055506c78945c/html5/thumbnails/49.jpg)
49
Land Use Classes LANDSAT-1
MSSJul 7, 1974
(%)
LANDSAT-5 TM
Jul 23, 1990(%)
LANDSAT-7 ETMOct 30, 2000
(%)
Woods 24.01 11.98 13.06
Row Crops & Legume Grasses 22.78 29.18 13.20
Small Grains or Grass
31.56 34.91 16.84
Fallow Land 4.79 2.34 30.06
Urban 10.07 16.72 22.25
Homestead 3.14 2.05 1.86
Water 3.65 2.82 2.73
![Page 50: DEFINING RISK AND ITS ROLE IN DISASTER MANAGEMENT · 2020-06-10 · Disaster Risk Management Threat recognition - risk and vulnerability identification Risk analysis and assessment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050112/5f49770f7ac055506c78945c/html5/thumbnails/50.jpg)
50
0 100 200 300 400Days
0
100
200
300
Flo
w in
Cu
me
cs0 100 200 300 400
400
200
0
To
tal p
pt i
n m
m
Byron
Thorndale
1974
1997
0 100 200 300 400Days
0
100
200
300
400
Flo
w (
m3/s
ec)
0 100 200 300 400
600
400
200
0
Pre
cip
ita
tio
n (
mm
)
Byron
Thorndale
1. Nirupama, N. and S.P. Simonovic (2007). Increase of Flood Risk due to Urbanisation: A Canadian
Example, Natural Hazards, Springer, 40, 25-41.
![Page 51: DEFINING RISK AND ITS ROLE IN DISASTER MANAGEMENT · 2020-06-10 · Disaster Risk Management Threat recognition - risk and vulnerability identification Risk analysis and assessment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050112/5f49770f7ac055506c78945c/html5/thumbnails/51.jpg)
![Page 52: DEFINING RISK AND ITS ROLE IN DISASTER MANAGEMENT · 2020-06-10 · Disaster Risk Management Threat recognition - risk and vulnerability identification Risk analysis and assessment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050112/5f49770f7ac055506c78945c/html5/thumbnails/52.jpg)
Resilience building and community participation
ENGAGING PUBLIC FOR BUILDING RESILIENT COMMUNITIES TO REDUCE DISASTER IMPACT
Nirupama, N. and Maula, A. (2013). Engaging Public for Building Resilient Communities to Reduce Disaster
Impact, Special Issue on Sociological Aspects of Natural Disasters Springer, Natural Hazards. 66:51-59.
1. Nirupama, N. and Etkin, D. (2012). Institutional Perception and Support in Emergency Management in
Ontario, Canada, Disaster Prevention and Management, Emerald, 21(5).
![Page 53: DEFINING RISK AND ITS ROLE IN DISASTER MANAGEMENT · 2020-06-10 · Disaster Risk Management Threat recognition - risk and vulnerability identification Risk analysis and assessment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050112/5f49770f7ac055506c78945c/html5/thumbnails/53.jpg)
Education
Professional Degree
3%
Doctoral Degree0% Master's Degree
7%
Completed College/Universi
ty15%
Some College/Universi
ty22%
Completed High School24%
Some High School15%
Other12%
No Response2%
![Page 54: DEFINING RISK AND ITS ROLE IN DISASTER MANAGEMENT · 2020-06-10 · Disaster Risk Management Threat recognition - risk and vulnerability identification Risk analysis and assessment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050112/5f49770f7ac055506c78945c/html5/thumbnails/54.jpg)
Employment
Employed12%
Not employed83%
No Response5%
![Page 55: DEFINING RISK AND ITS ROLE IN DISASTER MANAGEMENT · 2020-06-10 · Disaster Risk Management Threat recognition - risk and vulnerability identification Risk analysis and assessment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050112/5f49770f7ac055506c78945c/html5/thumbnails/55.jpg)
Type of Housing Occupied by the Participants
![Page 56: DEFINING RISK AND ITS ROLE IN DISASTER MANAGEMENT · 2020-06-10 · Disaster Risk Management Threat recognition - risk and vulnerability identification Risk analysis and assessment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050112/5f49770f7ac055506c78945c/html5/thumbnails/56.jpg)
Proximity to Potential Risks
5
7
12
0
3
15
10
![Page 57: DEFINING RISK AND ITS ROLE IN DISASTER MANAGEMENT · 2020-06-10 · Disaster Risk Management Threat recognition - risk and vulnerability identification Risk analysis and assessment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050112/5f49770f7ac055506c78945c/html5/thumbnails/57.jpg)
Transportation
Personal Vehicle
5%Carpool/Family/Friends
0%
Public Transit64%
Taxi2%
Other2%
No Response27%
![Page 58: DEFINING RISK AND ITS ROLE IN DISASTER MANAGEMENT · 2020-06-10 · Disaster Risk Management Threat recognition - risk and vulnerability identification Risk analysis and assessment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050112/5f49770f7ac055506c78945c/html5/thumbnails/58.jpg)
People’s perception of their safety, exposure to risk or threat, sense of belonging with their community, and preparedness to deal with emergencies
![Page 59: DEFINING RISK AND ITS ROLE IN DISASTER MANAGEMENT · 2020-06-10 · Disaster Risk Management Threat recognition - risk and vulnerability identification Risk analysis and assessment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050112/5f49770f7ac055506c78945c/html5/thumbnails/59.jpg)
Preferences for Seeking help when Faced with Emergencies
![Page 60: DEFINING RISK AND ITS ROLE IN DISASTER MANAGEMENT · 2020-06-10 · Disaster Risk Management Threat recognition - risk and vulnerability identification Risk analysis and assessment](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050112/5f49770f7ac055506c78945c/html5/thumbnails/60.jpg)