dedicated roads for autonomous vehicles
DESCRIPTION
These slides use concepts from my (Jeff Funk) course entitled analyzing hi-tech opportunities to analyze how autonomous vehicles are becoming economic feasible. They are becoming economically feasible because the cost of lasers, ICs, MEMS, and other electronic components are falling at 25 to 40% per year. If the cost of autonomous vehicles fall 25% a year, the cost of the electronics associated with autonomous vehicles will fall 90% in 10 years. Dedicating roads to autonomous vehicles is necessary to achieve the most benefits from autonomous vehicles. While using autonomous vehicles in combination with conventional vehicles can free drivers for other activities, dedicating roads to autonomous vehicles can dramatically reduce congestion, increase speeds, and thus increase the number of cars per area of the road. They can also reduce accidents, insurance, and the number of traffic police. These slide discuss a number of technologies that can be used for the dedicated roads including wireless communication, magnetic stripes and RFIDs that together can coordinate vehicles on roads. The slides end by summarizing efforts in Singapore.TRANSCRIPT
MT5009:Dedicated Roads for Autonomous Vehicles
Team Members: Chang Poo Hee - Chin Mei Yin - Lin Rong Bin - Lua Xiang Lian - Tee Kim Chuan
Overview
� Introduction
�Concepts of Dedicated Road
� Technologies for Dedicated Road
� Singapore: Adoption of Autonomous Vehicles
� Entrepreneurial Opportunities
Introduction
-What are AVs? –The Need for Dedicated Roads for AVs -
Introduction
Autonomous Vehicles� Self-Driving, Driver-free Cars
� Fulfils transportation capabilities of a traditional car
AV senses environment with � Radar
� Lidar
� GPS
� Computer Vision
Ref: Self-Driving Cars: The Next Revolution by KPMG, 2012
Road CongestionHigh Mobility
CostSafety & Human
TollDemographic
TrendsRunning Out of
Space
The Need of Dedicated Road for AVs
Growing Population
More vehicles
Road Congestion
Maximize road capacity
High Vehicle Cost(US21K~US$40K)
Less Usage(Unused avg.
22Hrs/day in 5 years)
High Infra. Cost. New: US$8~12M/mileMain: US$1.25M/mile)
Low Productivity(Total Hrs spent on road 250hrs /year)
Distraction(accounted for 21%
crashes)
High economic cost US$300 Billion p.a.
Mobility challenges(older drivers & those
with disabilities)
Change in perceptionShared!!!!
Accidents & Deaths32,788 deaths, 2.2 millions injury93% human errors
Lack of parking lots / garages
Population density(1 car for 2.4 to
1 car for 1.2 people)
Introduction
Ref: http://future-observatory.blogspot.sg/2014/01/fully-self-driving-cars-expected-by.html
Where ARE we now?
Introduction
Concepts of Dedicated Roads
V2V –V2I – Platooning – SMART Traffic Management Systems
V2V : Vehicle to Vehicle
V2I : Vehicle to Infrastructure
What is V2V & V2I ?Concepts: V2V & V2I – Platooning – SMART
Communication Technologies for Car
Concepts: V2V & V2I – Platooning – SMART
Ref: http://www.toyota-global.com/innovation/intelligent_transport_systems/images/The_Future_of_Mobility.pdf
Why Communicating Vehicles ?
Concepts: V2V & V2I – Platooning – SMART
Ref: http://www.toyota-global.com/innovation/intelligent_transport_systems/images/The_Future_of_Mobility.pdf
Why Communicating Vehicles ?Concepts: V2V & V2I – Platooning – SMART
� Vehicles exchange information to determine location, speed and heading
� Forward collision warning
� Emergency electronic brake light
� Blind spot / Lane change warning
� Do not pass warning
� Intersection movement assist
� Left turn assist
� Infrastructure sends situation to vehicles to allow mapping of intersection, signal phase and signal change timing
� Curve speed warning
� Red light violation warning
� Transit pedestrian detection
Ref: http://www.toyota-global.com/innovation/intelligent_transport_systems/images/The_Future_of_Mobility.pdf
Applications
Concepts: V2V & V2I – Platooning – SMART
� The goal of vehicle platoon control is to ensure that all the vehicles move in the same lane at the same speed with desired inter-vehicle distances.
� Types of Platooning� Adaptive Cruise Control (ACC)
� Cooperative Adaptive Cruise Control (CACC)
What is Platooning ?
Concepts: V2V & V2I – Platooning – SMART
Functions of Vehicle Platooning
Longitudinal Control
• Speed• Distance
Lateral Control
• Lane Tracking• Lane Changing
Maneuver Coordination
• Platoon Formation• Platoon Split
Concepts: V2V & V2I – Platooning – SMART
Adaptive Cruise Control (ACC)
Ref: http://openroadautogroup.com/blog/active-cruise-control-systems
Concepts: V2V & V2I – Platooning – SMART
Cooperative Adaptive Cruise Control (CACC)
Ref: http://openroadautogroup.com/blog/active-cruise-control-systems
� Cooperative adaptive cruise control (CACC) uses V2V communication to provide enhanced information to the ACC controller so that vehicles can follow each other automatically with higher accuracy, faster response, shorter gaps, enhanced traffic flow stability and possibly improved safety.
Concepts: V2V & V2I – Platooning – SMART
Smart Traffic Management System
Concepts: V2V & V2I – Platooning – SMART
� Smart Traffic Management System is an intelligent transportation system that comprises of data collection and processing through DSRC for users, roads and vehicles
� Allow vehicles / infrastructure to communicate and respond
� Enhance mobility, reduce emissions and fuel consumption, improve safety and economic competitiveness
� Elimination of traffic lights via Intersection movement assist
� More funding is being dedicated to traffic management system to help address growing demand for transportation assets without making major new capital investments.
Ref: http://www.navigantresearch.com/blog/smart-transportation-systems-still-a-good-bet-in-tough-times-2
Smart Traffic Management System
Concepts: V2V & V2I – Platooning – SMART
Ref: Intellimotion, Research Updates in Intelligent Transportation Systems Volume 9 No. 2 2000 Advances in Performance Measurement (Website: http://www.path.berkeley.edu/sites/default/files/documents/Intellimotion%209-2%202.pdf) & A multiagent Approach to Autonomous Intersection Management. Kurt Dresner and Peter Stone, 2008
Less Traffic light delays:From 100% human to fully autonomous
� Less congestion� Denser cities & lower energy expenditures� Reduce accidents
Higher Speeds and Fuel Efficiencies:By dedicating roads to AVs
Fuel savings by vehicle spacing and platoon size of Buick LeSabres (1999 field tests), and of minivans derived from wind tunnel drag
Smart Traffic Management System
Concepts: V2V & V2I – Platooning – SMART
Supporting Technologies for Dedicated Roads Concepts
Communication – Computation – Localization
Communication Technology� Dedicated Short Range Communication (DSRC)
� Infrastructure Data Networks
Computation Technology� Video Recognition
� In-Vehicle Computing
Localization Technology� Radar
� Radio-Frequency Identification
� Magnets
Supporting Technologies for Dedicated Road Concepts
Overview
Localization(Rader, RFID &
Magnets)
Computation (Camera & In vehicle computing)
Communication (DSRC & Infrastructure data network)
Supporting Technologies for Dedicated Road Concepts
Technologies: Communication – Computation – Localization
� Vehicle-to-Vehicle (V2V) and Vehicle-to-Infrastructure (V2I) communication enable autonomous driving in dedicated lanes
� V2V: vehicles communication directly with neighbouring vehicles
� V2I: two vehicles communicate indirectly by infrastructure
� Infrastructure can include buildings or roadside units (RSU) or lamp poles, traffic lights, gantries, etc.
� Communications can be done via wireless, satellite and cellular. However, focus will be made on wireless communication mode – DSRC where telematics need to be embedded in the vehicle for communication to take place
Dedicated Short Range Communication (DSRC)
Wireless Access for Vehicular Environments (WAVE)
DSRC Performance EnvelopesIEEE802.11P ~ 5.9GHz⇒Vehicular Communication Network⇒75MHz Spectrum
Existing DSRC network ⇒12MHz Spectrum
DISADVANTAGE:No protection, allowing interference from other “Data Transfer and Internet Access Services” & only allow 1 communication zone at any point of time
ADVANTAGE:No interference from “Data Transfer and Internet Access Services” & allow overlapping communication zones
Ref: http://groups.engin.umd.umich.edu/vi/w5_workshops/guo_DSRC.pdf
Dedicated Short Range Communication (DSRC)
Technologies: Communication – Computation – Localization
Requirements for DSRC
� Changes will need to be made in IEEE 802.11 standards
� Give raise to IEEE 802.11p
� Support longer range of operations
� High speed of vehicles
� Extreme multipath environment
� Need for multiple overlapping ad-hoc networks to operate with extremely high quality of service
� Nature of automotive applications to be supported
Ref: http://www.academia.edu/6055445/Intelligent_Transportation_Systems_Wireless_Access_for_Vehicular_Environments_WAVE
Dedicated Short Range Communication (DSRC)
Technologies: Communication – Computation – Localization
� DSRC protocols defined by IEEE 802.11p and IEEE 1609 standards for wireless access in vehicular environments –Vehicular Communication System
� DSRC based intelligent transport system can be done with a network of Road Side Equipment (RSE) and On Board Equipment (OBE) mounted in vehicles
� A dedicated spectrum that allow vehicular communication to be done safely avoiding interruption from other traffic signals in the network
Ref: http://adrianlatorre.com/projects/pfc/img/vanet_full.jpghttp://www.atip.org/atip_content/download_root/ATIP%20Reports/1998/AP98080R.HTM
Dedicated Short Range Communication (DSRC)
Technologies: Communication – Computation – Localization
� Within 300m, 5.9GHz DSRC signal is strong
� Beyond 300m, the signal weakens and becomes unstable
� Street lights along the road could serve as RSERef: http://www.itsasiapacificforum2014.co.nz/files/5314/0192/3941/Vehicle-to-Vehicle_and_Vehicle-to-Infrastructure_Trial_with_Dedicated_Short_Range_Communication_5.9GHz_in_Singapore_by_Musthafa_Ibrahaim.pdf
Distance vs. DSRC Signal Strength Performance
RSE should be placed within a gap of 300m in order for DSRC to achieve maximum performance in V2V and V2I
RSE should be placed within a gap of 300m in order for DSRC to achieve maximum performance in V2V and V2I
Dedicated Short Range Communication (DSRC)
Technologies: Communication – Computation – Localization
Ref: http://www.pcb.its.dot.gov/eprimer/module13p.aspx
DSRC for Active Safety Applications
Dedicated Short Range Communication (DSRC)
Technologies: Communication – Computation – Localization
� DSRC – IEEE 802.11p is needed to have a cooperative, active safety system � Dedicated 5.9GHz
� Multiple overlapping of communication zones
� Longer range of communications
� Short latency
� Government to provide the roadside infrastructure
� DSRC transceiver to be embedded in vehicle
Steps to Kick Start Autonomous Vehicles in Dedicated Lanes
Dedicated Short Range Communication (DSRC)
Technologies: Communication – Computation – Localization
Potential Market Forecast of DSRC Potential Cost Forecast of DSRC
Ref: http://www.gsma.com/connectedliving/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/gsma2025everycarconnected.pdfhttp://www.michigan.gov/documents/mdot/09-27-2012_Connected_Vehicle_Technology_-_Industry_Delphi_Study_401329_7.pdf
Global Growth Forecast for Embedded Vehicular Telematics
Dedicated Short Range Communication (DSRC)
Cost to Install Embedded Telematics in Vehicles (including DSRC and Connected Vehicle Technology Required
17 times
65% drop
Technologies: Communication – Computation – Localization
Infrastructure Data Networks
� Huge amounts of Data handling V2I communications
� High performance of networking needed
Technologies: Communication – Computation – Localization
Ref: http://www.automotiveworld.com/megatrends-articles/ethernet-fast-track-connected-car/http://dupress.com/articles/from-exponential-technologies-to-exponential-innovation/http://www.bomara.com/Garrett/wp_traffic_control.htm
Networking Trends
Bandwidth Improvements Over Time
Lower Latency
Cost Decreasing
Infrastructure Data Networks
Technologies: Communication – Computation – Localization
� In IJCNN 2011, German Traffic Sign Recognition Benchmark
� Machine can recognise traffic signs at better standards than average human!
Video Recognition
Ref: Man vs. Computer:Benchmarking Machine Learning Algorithms for Traffic Sign RecognitionJ. Stallkampa, M. Schlipsinga, J. Salmena, C. Igelb
Technologies: Communication – Computation – Localization
� Deep Learning-Requires Very intensivemachine computation!
� In 2012, Google used Deep learning with 16,000 processors(cost US$ 1 million ) to recognise cats from YouTube Videos.
Ref: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/26/technology/in-a-big-network-of-computers-evidence-of-machine-learning.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0
Video Recognition
Technologies: Communication – Computation – Localization
� Cost of computing is going down
� Video recognition is expected to improve its accuracy along with cheaper computing
Video Recognition
Technologies: Communication – Computation – Localization
� A centralised management system
� Predicts transportation needs on various conditions� Learns from previous events that affects traffic flow
� During times of excess road demand, a routing system will divert traffic to other roads with excess capacity.
� Many developing algorithms for traffic network optimisation� such as one described in “ Fast model predictive control for urban road networks
via MILP” by S Lin
Cloud-Based Routing System
Ref:https://www.behance.net/gallery/2422404/Autonomo-2030-Concept-The-Detailshttp://www.dcsc.tudelft.nl/~bdeschutter/pub/rep/11_001.pdf
Technologies: Communication – Computation – Localization
In-Vehicle Computing Platform
Ref: http://www.nexcom.com/applications/DetailByDivision/on-road-vehicle-computing-solutions
• Connected AVs will send and receive more sensor and communication data
• More data for in-vehicle computing to handle
Technologies: Communication – Computation – Localization
Ref: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore's_lawhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supercomputer
Moore’s Law: No. of transistor in hardware ↑
Speed of Calculation ↑
Cost of Computing ↓
Rates of Improvement of Computing
Technologies: Communication – Computation – Localization
Radar
long range radar
medium range radar
short range radar
adaptive cruise control (77GHz)
side impact assistance
blind spot detection
collision avoidance
auto-parking
Technologies: Communication – Computation – Localization
Radar
Technologies: Communication – Computation – Localization
What are the components in radar system?
Ref: http://www.ifp.illinois.edu/~varshney/cornell/publications/radar%20system%20components%20and%20system%20design.pdf
Mostly Electronics!
Radar
Technologies: Communication – Computation – Localization
� Higher Frequency Radar Chips(79 GHz band)
� More reliable & higher resolution
� Much smaller antenna
� Lower risk of mutual interference
� Declining costs� Reducing cost of chips
� Now cost about $100
Trends of Automotive Radar
Ref: https://itunews.itu.int/en/3935-Future-trends-for-automotive-radars-Towards-the-79GHz-band.note.aspxhttp://www.wireless-mag.com/Features/30286/advanced-radar-the-car-industry%E2%80%99s-autonomous-future.aspx
Radar
Technologies: Communication – Computation – Localization
� How about
� LIDAR?
� GPS?
� We will present on other technological alternatives…
Others
Technologies: Communication – Computation – Localization
Rain
Tunnel
Snow Fog
Where am I ?Where to Go?
No signals Multipath Propagation
Localization Technology in Harsher Environment
Technologies: Communication – Computation – Localization
� Volvo’s project uses small magnets (40x15mm) embedded 200mm under the road surface
� Car fitted with magnetic field sensors
� Communicates to AVs where the road is and where it is going
“The magnets create an invisible 'railway' that literallypaves the way for a positioning inaccuracy of less thanone decimeter. We have tested the technology at avariety of speeds and the results so far are promising,”says Jonas Ekmark, preventive safety leader at VolvoCar Group.
Source: http://www.gizmag.com/volvo-road-magents-autonomous-cars/31172/
Magnets
Technologies: Communication – Computation – Localization
Advantages
� Especially good at identifying lane division under debris (e.g. mud, snow, etc)
� Can be used for safety (e.g. lane markings) and automatic switch for activating car’ssafety system off-road
� GPS- and camera-based systems have far more potential for general-purposelocation-awareness, navigational, parking and collision-avoidance systems, but areseverely limited in poor visibility and at very close distances. Poor weather or poorlight can impinge on a camera's performance, whereas a GPS system can lose thesignal.
� Magnets are also better than reflectors or other surface-mounted vison-assistingroad decorations because they can be mounted flush or even underneath a thin layerof asphalt, and let road designers be far more precise in defining lane boundaries.
Magnets
Technologies: Communication – Computation – Localization
Cost
� Vehicle Sensor rig = $109 (at production scale of 50,000 units)
� Highway infrastructure = $22,179/km
� Total Cost of Implementation is about $183 million
Volvo tested their sensor system at speeds of up to 90 mph.
Source: http://www.wired.com/2014/03/volvo-magnets-autonomous/
Magnets
Technologies: Communication – Computation – Localization
Infrastructure Cost
Types of Roads Length (Km) Cost ($)
Total 3,453 76,584,087
Expressways 164 3,637,356
Arterial Roads 662 14,682,498
Collector Roads 571 12,664,209
Local Access Roads 2,055 45,577,845
Magnets
Technologies: Communication – Computation – Localization
Vehicle Modification Cost
Types of Vehicles No. of Vehicles Cost
Total 969,910 $ 105,720,190
Cars (includes private and company cars)
605,149 $ 65,961,241
Rental Cars 14,862 $ 1,619,958
Taxis 28,210 $ 3,074,890
Buses 17,162 $ 1,870,658
Motorcycles & Scooters 144,110 $ 15,707,990
Goods & Other Vehicles 160,417 $ 17,485,453
Magnets
Technologies: Communication – Computation – Localization
Frequency Ranges
� 1) Low-frequency (30 KHz to 500 KHz)
� 2) Mid-Frequency (900KHz to 1500MHz)
� 3) High Frequency (2.4GHz to 2.5GHz)
Components
A basic RFID system consists of three components:
� Host System ( Transceiver with decoder)
� An antenna or coil (Reader)
� A transponder (RF tag)
Radio Frequency Identification (RFID)
Technologies: Communication – Computation – Localization
Radio Frequency Identification (RFID)
Technologies: Communication – Computation – Localization
http://www.ibtechnology.co.uk/rfidanswers.htm
Passive • Also called ‘pure passive’, ‘reflective’ or ‘beam powered’ • Obtains operating power from the reader • The reader sends electromagnetic waves that induce current in the tag’s antenna,
the tag reflects the RF signal transmitted and adds information by modulating the reflected signal
Semi-passive • Uses a battery to maintain memory in the tag or power the electronics that enable the tag to modulate the reflected signal
• Communicates in the same method, as the other passive tags
Active • Powered by an internal battery, used to run the microchip’s circuitry and to broadcast a signal to the reader
• Generally ensures a longer read range than passive tags • More expensive than passive tags (especial because usually are read/write) • The batteries must be replaced periodically
Operation Modes
Radio Frequency Identification (RFID)
Technologies: Communication – Computation – Localization
Rates of Improvement of RFID for Tag Range VS. Chip Power Sensitivity (Year 1997 – 2011)
Radio Frequency Identification (RFID)
Technologies: Communication – Computation – Localization
Cost
� RFID Tag = $0.50
� Infrastructure Cost = $2,500/km
(Assuming 5 RFID tags are required for every metre)
� RFID Reader = $100
(Based on Mid Frequency Readers)
� Total Cost of Implementation is about $106 million
Source: http:///sunxran.wordpress.com/rfid-the-future-to-behttp://www.rfidjournal.com/faq/show?85
Radio Frequency Identification (RFID)
Technologies: Communication – Computation – Localization
Infrastructure Cost
Types of Road Length (Km) Cost ($)
Total 3,453 8,632,500
Expressways 164 410,000
Arterial Roads 662 1,655,000
Collector Roads 571 1,427,500
Local Access Roads 2,055 5,137,500
Radio Frequency Identification (RFID)
Technologies: Communication – Computation – Localization
Vehicle Modification Cost
Types of Vehicles No. of Vehicles Cost ($)
Total 969,910 96,991,000
Cars (includes private and company cars)
605,149 60,514,900
Rental Cars 14,862 1,486,200
Taxis 28,210 2,821,000
Buses 17,162 1,716,200
Motorcycles & Scooters 144,110 14,411,000
Goods & Other Vehicles 160,417 16,041,700
Radio Frequency Identification (RFID)
Technologies: Communication – Computation – Localization
MAGNETSRADIO FREQUENCY
IDENTIFICATION (RFID)
Infrastructure Cost $ 76,584,087 $ 8,632,500
Vehicle Modification Cost $ 105,720,190 $ 96,991,000
Total Implementation Cost $ 182,304,277 $ 105,623,500
Per Vehicle Cost (Total Implementation Cost/Total
No. of Vehicles)$ 187.96 $ 108.90
Magnets & RFID
Cost
Technologies: Communication – Computation – Localization
At current state of technology,
� The reliability and accuracy of technologies such as LIDAR and GPS are subject to certain conditions such as weather, GPS coverage, etc
With the implementation of localization technologies such as Magnets and RFID,
� The local infrastructure will be ready for a fully AV system with higher reliability and accuracy.
� There is a potential to replace the need for expensive equipment such as LIDAR and GPS for localization due to the lower implementation cost per vehicle. With the removal of localization equipment from AVs, the price of AVs will drop significantly.
� The overall cost of implementation of AVs will also decrease.
Technologies: Communication – Computation – Localization
Magnets & RFID
Source [1] http://www.extremetech.com/extreme/157099-2014-lexus-is-hands-on-review-500-adaptive-cruise-handling-to-match-the-bmw-3-series
COMPONENTS ESTIMATED COST
Communications Technologies
Dedicated Short Range Communication (DSRC) $500
Computation Technologies
In-Vehicle Computing Platform1 $2,000
LocalizationTechnologies
Radar $100
Magnets $109
Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) $100
Technologies: Communication – Computation – Localization
Equipment Costs for Vehicles
Conclusion
Technologies: Communication – Computation – Localization
Conclusion
� The local infrastructure will be ready for a fully AV system with higher reliability and accuracy.
� Shift of implementation costs from consumers • Portion of the implementation costs will be infrastructure costs which will likely to be borne by the
government. This will lower the cost of AVs to the consumers.
� Lower implementation costs of AVs due to replacement technologies• Replacement of expensive equipment costs due to LIDAR and GPS
� With higher reliability and accuracy of AVs and lower cost of AVs, the adoption of AVs will likely increase at a faster rate.
� Potentially, less vehicles may be required on the road.
Singapore: Adoption of Autonomous Vehicles
Political
Economic
SocialTechnological
Legal
Environmental
Singapore: Adoption of Autonomous Vehicles
PESTLE Analysis
� CARTS (Committee on Autonomous RoadTransport for Singapore)� provide thought leadership and guidance on the research, development and deployment of AV
technology and AV-enabled mobility concepts for the city-state, and study the associatedopportunities and challenges.
� Singapore Autonomous Vehicle Initiative (SAVI)� Autonomous Vehicles: The research partnership will look at the feasibility of having AV (e.g.
driverless buses) for a mass transport service that operates on fixed routes and scheduledtimings.This can alleviate Singapore’s heavy reliance on manpower.
� Autonomous mobility system: Another area of exploration is a new mobility system forintra-town travel in future residential developments using a network of customised anddemand-responsive shared vehicles. This can potentially serve as a convenient first mile/last miletransport mode within a residential town, and can pave the way for towns which are lessoriented towards car-based mobility.
� Automated road system: The collaboration will also aim to prepare technical and statutoryrequirements for the mass adoption of driverless vehicles in Singapore, and explore applicationswhich can enhance traffic management.
Political
Singapore: Adoption of Autonomous Vehicles
Benefits� Reduce crashes, energy consumption and pollution
� Reduce the costs of congestion
� Occupants of vehicles could undertake other activities
� Increased throughput on roads due to more efficient vehicle operation and reduced delaysfrom accidents
� Freeing up of land space due to parking space leading to greater development
� Over time, as the frequency of crashes is reduced, vehicles can be made lighter, increasing fueleconomy even more
Challenges� Jobs displacement for many occupations such as taxi, truck and bus drivers
� Decline in insurance companies, body shops, medical services, etc, due to reduction inaccidents
� Increase in overallVehicle MilesTravelled (VMT) due to decreased cost of driving
Economic
Singapore: Adoption of Autonomous Vehicles
Ref: Singapore Traffic Police
Singapore Road Accident Rate
Economic
Singapore: Adoption of Autonomous Vehicles
Ref: Singapore Land Transport Authority
Singapore Motor Vehicle Population 2013
62%
1%3%
2%
15%
17%
MOTOR VEHICLE POPULATION BY TYPE OF VEHICLE 2013
Cars (includes private andcompany cars) (605,149)
Rental Cars (14,862)
Taxis (28,210)
Buses (17,162)
Motorcycles & Scooters(144,110)
Economic
Singapore: Adoption of Autonomous Vehicles
Benefits� Increase mobility for those who are currently unable or unwilling to drive
� Independence, reduction in social isolation, and access to essential services
� Commuters more willing to travel longer distances to and from work.
� Car-sharing to potentially increase interaction
Challenges� People may not be willing to accept driverless vehicles (i.e. previous experiences of LRT breakdowns)
Social
Singapore: Adoption of Autonomous Vehicles
Ref: Autonomous Vehicle Implementation Predications, 4 Jun 2014By Todd Litman, Victoria Transport Policy Institute
Vehicle Technology Deployment Summary
Social
Singapore: Adoption of Autonomous Vehicles
Ref: Autonomous Vehicle Implementation Predications, 4 Jun 2014By Todd Litman, Victoria Transport Policy Institute
Autonomous Vehicle Sales, Fleet and Travel Projections
Social
Singapore: Adoption of Autonomous Vehicles
Benefits� As the frequency of crashes is reduced, cars and trucks could be made much lighter and
hence many of the issues limiting the use of electric and other alternative vehicles arereduced
� Decreased number of crashes and associated lower insurance costs that thesetechnologies are expected to bring about will encourage drivers and automobile-insurance companies to adopt these technologies.
Challenges� Manufacturers’ product liability may increase leading to delays in the adoption of AVs
� Concerns may slow the introduction of technologies likely to increase that liability, evenif they are socially desirable.
Technological
Singapore: Adoption of Autonomous Vehicles
- NAIVA(autonomous electric shuttle), partnership between NTU, JTC and Induct Technologies
- Supported by the Singapore Economic DevelopmentBoard (EDB)
Shared Computer OperatedTransport (SCOT)- Collaboration between Singapore-MITAlliance for Research and Technology(SMART) and NUS- Funded by the Singapore NationalResearch Foundation (NRF) throughSMART at the Campus for ResearchExcellence And Technological Enterprise(CREATE)
Autonomous Unmanned Ground Vehicle (AUGV)- Developed by ST Kinetics
Technological
Singapore: Adoption of Autonomous Vehicles
� Challenges
� Standards and Regulations for Autonomous VehicleTechnologies� Currently no standards or regulations in Singapore onAVs
� Liabilities of drivers and insurance� Potential increase in manufacturers; product liability which could lead to delays
in adoption
� Warnings and consumer education will play a crucial role in managingmanufacturer liability but concerns may slow the introduction of technologieslikely to increase that liability, even if they are socially desirable
Legal
Singapore: Adoption of Autonomous Vehicles
Benefits� Over time, as the frequency of crashes is reduced, cars and trucks could be made
much lighter. This would increase fuel economy even more.
� AVs might reduce pollution by enabling the use of alternative fuels. The light vehicle body may enable the use of electric and other alternative vehicles
� The use of AVs would allow a viable system with fewer refueling stations than would otherwise be required.
� A platoon of closely spaced AVs that stops or slows down less often resembles a train, enabling lower peak speeds (improving fuel economy) but higher effective speeds (improving travel time).
Challenges� On the other hand, decreases in the cost of driving, and additions to the pool of
vehicle users (e.g., elderly, disabled, and those under 16) are likely to result in an increase in overall VMT. While it seems likely that the decline in fuel consumption and emissions would outweigh any such increase, it is uncertain.
Environmental
Singapore: Adoption of Autonomous Vehicles
Entrepreneurial Opportunities
• ↑ Demand for Communicating Vehicles
• AV Testing & Servicing Industry
1) Auto OEMs & Suppliers
• ↑ Demand within Automotive Semiconductor industry: sensors, display, data storage, communications.
2) Components Manufacturers
• OEM Design for AVs• Dedicated Road System, e.g. Smart Traffic Light on roads
• Big Data within V2X : Cloud system, real-time traffic monitoring.
3) Software Vendors/
Data Mgnt & Analyst Companies
Entrepreneurial Opportunities
• Must have: Full coverage of all highways & road in dedicated roads
• ↑ network usage ; with “freed drive �me”- Infotainment sys.
4) Telecommunication Service Providers
• In-Vehicle TV Subscription Services
• Outdoor Advertising on Dedicated Road
5) Media Advertisers
• Fleet mgnt svs for delivery trucks e.g. UPS, FedEx• Car Rental Svs; Car Sharing; Auto-Taxi Scheme
6) Transportation Svs Companies: Cargo & Passengers Svs
Entrepreneurial Opportunities
12 Nov 2014
Appendix
Intersection Movement Assist
� The future with no traffic lights
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4pbAI40dK0A#action=share
Trend of Wi-Fi Technology
General increasing trend of wireless network
Ref: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IEEE_802.11
Plot of signal attenuation at sea level and 20°C vs frequency
Ref: http://electronicdesign.com/communications/millimeter-waves-will-expand-wireless-future
Radar
Technologies: Communication – Computation – Localization
shows how oxygen (at 60 GHz) and water at the other peaks in the atmosphere significantly increase signal attenuation.
Ref: http://radar-detectors-review.toptenreviews.com/
Radar
Technologies: Communication – Computation – Localization
Types of Roads Description
ExpresswaysRefer to roads that provide planned long-distance mobility from one part of the island to another without the interruption of traffic lights.
Arterial RoadsRefer to roads connecting an expressway with roads surrounding or passing through estate developments. They also improve traffic circulation between adjacent towns.
Collector RoadsRefer to roads forming links between local roads and arterial roads and providing links to building or land developments.
Local Access RoadsRefer to roads that provide direct access to buildings and other developments and that only connect with collector roads.
SINGAPORE: TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE
Source: LTA
Technologies: Communication – Computation – Localization
5%
19%
17%59%
Expressways (164 km)
Arterial Roads (662 km)
Collector Roads (571 km)
Local Access Roads (2,055 km)
Source: Land Transport Authority
SINGAPORE PUBLIC ROADS 2013
Source: LTA
Technologies: Communication – Computation – Localization