dedevelopment and keynes core utnif 2012


2/265


Summer 12 Pg 2

De-Development



3/265


Summer 12 Pg !

DeDev 1NC-Generi

Economic collapse inevitable diminishing returns from innovationsmean complex societies inevitably crash and innite innovation isimpossible partitioned collapse is key to solve extinctionDe"ora# Maken!ie "#$ %%& &orrespon'ant (uotes )oe Tainter - an arc#aeologist at t#e Universityo* Uta#+ Salt ,ae &ity+ an' aut#or o* t#e 1.// "oo T#e &ollapse o* &omplex Societies+ an' 0aneer%ar-0am+ #ea' o* t#e Ne Englan' &omplex Systems Institute in &am"ri'ge+ assac#usetts 3454266/789re :E 'oome';< E"sco=

T#e very nature o* civilisation may mae its 'emise inevita"le+ says De"ora ac>en?ie D@@SD90 T#e en' o* civilisation ,iterature an' *ilm

a"oun' it# tales o* pla$%e& 'amine and (ars#ic# rava$e the planet+ leaving a *e survivors scratc#ing out a primitive

existence ami' t#e ruins )very ivilisationin #istory has ollapsed+ a*ter all :#y s#oul' ours "e any 'i**erent; Dooms'ay scenarios

typically *eature a nocout "loA a massive asteroi'+ all-out nuclear ar or a catastrop#ic pan'emic 0et t#ere is anot#er c#illing possi"ilityA (hat

i' the very nat%re o' ivilisation means that o%rs& like all the others& is destined to ollapse

sooner or later* + 'e( researhers have been makin$ s%h laims*or years Distur"ingly+ reent insi$hts

'rom*iel's suc# as omple,ity theory s%$$estt#at they are ri$ht It appears t#at one a soiety develops

beyond a ertain level o' omple,ity it beomes inreasin$ly 'ra$ile Eventually+ it reahes a point at

(hiheven arelatively minor dist%rbane an brin$ everythin$ rashin$ do(nSome say (e have

already reahed this point+ an' t#at it is time tostart thinking abo%t ho( (emig#t mana$e ollapse @t#ers

insist it is not yet too late+ an' t#at e can - e must - act no to eep 'isaster at "ay .istory is not on o%r side T#in o* S%meria+

o* anient )$ypt ando* t#e MayaIn #is 2665 "est-seller+ )are' Diamondo* t#e University o* &ali*ornia+ ,os 9ngeles+ blamed

environmental mismana$ement 'ort#e 'all o' the Mayan civilisation an' ot#ers+ an' arne' t#at (e mi$ht"e

heading the same (ay %nless (e hoose to stop destroyin$our environmental s%pport systems ,ester%ron o* t#e Eart# Policy Institute in :as#ington D& agrees Be #as t#at governments must pay more attention to vital environmental resources CItsnot a"out saving t#e planet Its a"out saving civilisation+C #e says @t#ers t#in our pro"lems run 'eeper From t#e moment our ancestors starte' to

settle 'on an' "uil' cities+ e #ave #a' to *in' solutions to t#e pro"lems t#at success "rings CFor the past 1"&""" years& problem

solvin$ has prod%ed inreasin$ omple,ity in h%man soieties&C says )osep# Tainter+ an arc#aeologist at t#eUniversity o* Uta#+ Salt ,ae &ity+ an' aut#or o* t#e 1.// "oo T#e &ollapse o* &omplex Societies I* crops *ail "ecause rain is patc#y+ "uil' irrigationcanals :#en t#ey silt up+ organise 're'ging cres :#en t#e "igger crop yiel's lea' to a "igger population+ "uil' more canals :#en t#ere are toomany *or a' #oc repairs+ install a management "ureaucracy+ an' tax people to pay *or it :#en t#ey complain+ invent tax inspectors an' a system to

recor' t#e sums pai' T#at muc# t#e Sumerians ne Diminis#ing returns/here is+ #oever+ a prie to be paid )very e,tra

layer o' or$anisation imposesa ost interms o* ener$y+ t#e common currency o* all #uman e**orts+ *rom "uil'ing canals to

e'ucating scri"es 9n' inreasin$ omple,ity+ Tainter realise'& prod%es diminishin$ ret%rns T#e e,tra 'ood

prod%ed byeac# e,tra#our o* labo%r- or oule o* energy investe' per *arme' #ectare - 'iminishes as that investment

mo%nts 0e see the same thin$ today in a delinin$ n%mber o' patents per dollar invested in

researh as that researh investment mo%nts /his la( o' diminishin$ ret%rns appears

every(here+ Tainter says /o keep $ro(in$& soieties m%st keep solvin$ problemsas t#ey arise et eah

problem solved means more omple,ity S%ess $eneratesa lar$er pop%lation& morein's o*

speialists& more reso%res to mana$e& more in'ormation to 2%$$le - and + ultimately+ less ban$ 'oryour

b%k Eventually+ says Tainter+ the point is reahed (hen all the ener$y and reso%res available to a

soiety are re3%ired 2%st to maintainits e,istin$ level o' omple,ityT#en (hen the limate han$es

or "ar"arians inva'e+ overstrethed instit%tions break do(n and ivil order ollapses 0hat emer$es is a

less omple, soiety+ #ic# is or$anised on a smaller sale or#as "een taken over by another $ro%p

Tainter sees diminishin$ ret%rns ast#e %nderlyin$ reason 'ort#e ollapse o' all anient ivilisations&

Misael | Flynn | Satveer | Sophie | Vikram | Javier | Calen | Gabe Pg !
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4/265


Summer 12 Pg 3'romt#e early Chinese dynasties tot#e ree city state o* Myenae /hese ivilisations relied ont#e solar

ener$yt#at coul' "e harvested 'rom 'ood& 'odder and (ood& and 'rom (ind 0hen this had been

strethed to its limit& thin$s 'ell apart :estern ind%strial ivilisation has beome"igger an' more

omple, than any be'oreit by e,ploitin$ ne( so%res o' ener$y+ nota"ly oal and oil+ b%t these are

limited /hereareinreasin$si$nso'diminishin$ret%rnsA t#e ener$yre3%iredto get is mounting an' alt#oug#

glo"al is still increasing+ onstantinnovationisneededtoope(ithenvironmentalde$radationan' evolving -t#e yieldboostsper%nito* investmentininnovationareshrinkin$ CSince problems are inevitable+C

Tainter arns+ Cthis proess isin part inel%tableC Is Tainter rig#t; 9n analysis o* complex systems #as le' 0aneer %ar-0am+ #ea' o* t#e

Ne Englan' &omplex Systems Institute in &am"ri'ge+ assac#usetts+ to t#e same conclusion t#at Tainter reac#e' *rom stu'ying #istory Soial

or$anisations beomestea'ily more omple, as they are re3%ired to deal"ot# (ith environmental

problems andit# hallen$es 'rom nei$hbo%rin$ soietiest#at are also beomin$ more omple,+ %ar-0amsays T#is eventually lea's to a *un'amental s#i*t in t#e ay t#e society is organise' CTo run a #ierarc#y+ managers cannot "e less complex t#an t#e

system t#ey are managing+C %ar-0am says +s omple,ity inreases& soieties addever more layers o'

mana$ement"ut+ %ltimately in a hierarhy& one individ%al has to try and $et their head aro%nd

the (hole thin$+ an' this starts to beome impossible 9t t#at point+ hierarhies $ive (ay to net(orks in

(hih deision-makin$ is distrib%ted 0e are at this pointT#is s#i*t to 'ecentralise' netors #as le' to ai'esprea' "elie* t#at mo'ern society is more resilient t#an t#e ol' #ierarc#ical systems CI 'ont *oresee a collapse in society "ecause o* increase'complexity+C says *uturologist an' in'ustry consultant Gay Bammon'C@ur strengt# is in our #ig#ly 'istri"ute' 'ecision maingC T#is+ #e says+ maesmo'ern estern societies more resilient t#an t#ose lie t#e ol' Soviet Union+ in #ic# 'ecision maing as centralise' T#ings are not t#at simple+ saysT#omas Bomer-Dixon+ a political scientist at t#e University o* Toronto+ &ana'a+ an' aut#or o* t#e 266H "oo T#e Upsi'e o* Don CInitially+ increasing

connecte'ness an' 'iversity #elpsA i* one village #as a crop *ailure+ it can get *oo' *rom anot#er village t#at 'i'ntC +s onnetions

inrease&t#oug#+ net(orked systems beomeincreasingly ti$htly o%pledT#is means t#e impats o' 'ail%res

an propa$ateA t#e more closely t#ose to villages come to 'epen' on eac# ot#er+ t#e more "ot# ill su**er i* eit#er #as a

pro"lemCComple,ity leads to hi$her v%lnerabilityin some ays+C says %ar-0am C/his is not (idely

%nderstoodC T#e reason is t#at as net(orks beomeever ti$hter& theystart to transmit shoks rather than

absorbt#em C/he intriate net(orks that ti$htly onnet %s to$ether- an' move people+ materials+ in*ormation+

money an' energy - ampli'y and transmit any shok+C says Bomer-Dixon C+ 'inanial risis+ a terrorist attak

ora disease o%tbreak hasalmost instant destabilisin$ e''ets& 'rom one side o' the (orld to theotherC For instance+ in 266! large areas o* Nort# 9merica an' Europe su**ere' #en apparently insigni*icant no'es o* t#eir respective electricity

gri's *aile' 9n' t#is year ina su**ere' a similar "lacout a*ter #eavy sno #it poer lines /i$htly o%pled net(orkslie t#ese

reatet#e potential 'or propa$atin$ 'ail%re aross many ritial ind%stries+ says arles Perro o* 0aleUniversity+ a lea'ing aut#ority on in'ustrial acci'ents an' 'isasters &re'it crunc#Perro says interconnecte'ness in t#e glo"al pro'uction system #asno reac#e' t#e point #ere Ca "rea'on any#ere increasingly means a "rea'on every#ereC T#is is especially true o* t#e orl's *inancialsystems+ #ere t#e coupling is very tig#t CNo e#ave a 'e"t crisis it# t#e "iggest player+ t#e US T#e conseuences coul' "e enormousC C9netore' society "e#aves lie a multicellular organism+C says %ar-0am+ Cran'om 'amage is lie lopping a c#un o** a s#eepC :#et#er or not t#es#eep survives 'epen's on #ic# c#un is lost 9n' #ile e are pretty sure #ic# c#uns a s#eep nee's+ it isnt clear - it may not even "e pre'icta"le -#ic# c#uns o* our 'ensely netore' civilisation are critical+ until its too late C:#en e 'o t#e analysis+ almost any part is critical i* you loseenoug# o* it+C says %ar-0am CNo t#at e can as uestions o* suc# systems in more sop#isticate' ays+ e are 'iscovering t#at t#ey can "e veryvulnera"le T#at means civilisation is very vulnera"leC So #at can e 'o; CT#e ey issue is really #et#er e respon' success*ully in t#e *ace o* t#ene vulnera"ilities e #ave+C %ar-0am says T#at means maing sure our Cglo"al s#eepC 'oes not get inure' in t#e *irst place - somet#ing t#at may "e#ar' to guarantee as t#e climate s#i*ts an' t#e orl's *uel an' mineral resources 'in'le Scientists in ot#er *iel's are also arning t#at complex

systems are prone to collapse Similar i'eas #ave emerge' *rom t#e stu'y o* natural cycles in ecosystems+ "ase' on t#e or o* ecologist %u?? Bolling+no at t#e University o* Flori'a+ ainesville Some ecosystems "ecome stea'ily more complex over timeA as a patc# o* ne *orest gros an' matures+specialist species may replace more generalist species+ "iomass "uil's up an' t#e trees+ "eetles an' "acteria *orm an increasingly rigi' an' ever moretig#tly couple' system CIt "ecomes an extremely e**icient system *or remaining constant in t#e *ace o* t#e normal range o* con'itions+C says Bomer-Dixon %ut unusual con'itions - an insect out"rea+ *ire or 'roug#t - can trigger 'ramatic c#anges as t#e impact casca'es t#roug# t#e systemT#e en'

result may "e t#e collapse o* t#e ol' ecosystem an' its replacement "y a neer+ simpler one Globalisation is res%ltin$ int#e same

ti$ht o%plin$ and 'ine-t%nin$ o'our systems to a narro( ran$e o' onditions+ #e says 4ed%ndany

is bein$ systematially eliminated as ompanies ma,imise pro'its Some pro'ucts are pro'uce' "y only one

*actory orl'i'e Finanially& it makes sense& as mass prod%tion ma,imises

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5/265


Summer 12 Pg 5e''iieny 5n'ort%nately& it also minimises resilieneC:e nee' to "e more selective a"out increasing t#e connectivity

an' spee' o* our critical systems+C says Bomer-Dixon CSometimes t#e costs outeig# t#e "ene*itsC Is t#ere an alternative; Co%ld (e heed

t#ese (arnin$s andstart care*ully limbing bak do(n the omple,ity ladder; Tainter nos o* only one civilisation t#at

manage' to 'ecline "ut not *all C+'ter the 6y!antine empire lost most o' its territory to the +rabs& they

simpli'ied their entire soiety Citiesmostly disappeared+ literacy an' numeracy 'ecline'+ t#eir eonomy beame

less monetised& and they s(ithed 'rom pro'essional army to peasant militiaC Pulling o** t#e same tricill "e #ar'er *or our more a'vance' society Nevert#eless+ Bomer-Dixon t#ins (e sho%ld be takin$ ation no(CFirst+ e nee' to

encourage 'istri"ute' an' 'ecentralise' pro'uction o* vital goo's lie energy an' *oo'+C #e says CSecon'+ e nee' to remem"er t#at slak isn7t

al(ays (aste 9 manu*acturing company it# a large inventory may lose some money on are#ousing+ "ut it can eep running even i* itssuppliers are temporarily out o* actionC T#e electricity in'ustry in t#e US #as alrea'y starte' i'enti*ying #u"s in t#e gri' it# no re'un'ancy availa"lean' is putting some "ac in+ Bomer-Dixon points out overnments coul' encourage ot#er sectors to *ollo suit T#e trou"le is t#at in a orl' o* *iercecompetition+ private companies ill alays increase e**iciency unless governments su"si'ise ine**iciency in t#e pu"lic interest Bomer-Dixon

'ou"ts e can stave o** collapse completely Be points to #at #e calls 8tetoni8 stressest#at (ill shove o%r ri$id& ti$htly

o%pled system o%tside the ran$e o' onditions it is"ecoming ever more 'inely t%ned toT#ese inclu'e

pop%lation $ro(th& the $ro(in$ divide bet(een the (orld7s rih and poor& 'inanial instability&

(eapons proli'eration& disappearin$ 'orests and 'isheries& and limate han$e 9n imposin$ ne(

omple, sol%tions (e (ill r%n into the problem o' diminishin$ ret%rns - 2%st as (e are r%nnin$o%t o' heap and plenti'%l ener$y CT#is is t#e *un'amental c#allenge #umanin' *aces 0e need to allo( 'ort#e

healthy breakdo(nin natural *unction in o%r soieties in a (ay that doesn7t prod%e atastrophi

ollapse& b%t instead leads to healthy rene(al+C Bomer-Dixon says T#is is #at #appens in *orests+ #ic# are a patc#y mix o*ol' grot# an' neer areas create' "y 'isease or *ire I* t#e ecosystem in one patc# collapses+ it is recolonise' an' renee' "y younger *orest

else#ere 0e m%st allo( partial breakdo(n here and there& 'ollo(ed by rene(a l& he says& rather

than tryin$ so hard to avert breakdo(n by inreasin$ omple,ity that any res%ltin$ risis is

at%ally (orse ,ester %ron t#ins e are *ast running out o* time CT#e orl' can no longer a**or' to aste a 'ay :e nee' a reato"ilisation+ as e #a' in artime+C #e says CT#ere #as "een tremen'ous progress in ust t#e past *e years For t#e *irst time+ I am starting to see #oan alternative economy mig#t emerge %ut its no a race "eteen tipping points - #ic# ill come *irst+ a sitc# to sustaina"le tec#nology+ orcollapse;C Tainter is not convince' t#at even ne tec#nology ill save civilisation in t#e long run CI sometimes t#in o* t#is as a *ait#-"ase' approac#

to t#e *uture+C #e says )ven a soiety reinvi$orated by heap ne( ener$y so%res (ill event%ally 'ae the

problem o' diminishin$ ret%rns one more 9nnovation itsel' mi$ht be s%b2et to diminishin$

ret%rns& or perhaps absol%te limits Stu'ies o* t#e ay "y ,uis %ettencourt o* t#e ,os 9lamos National ,a"oratory+ Ne exico+

support t#is i'ea Bis teams or suggests t#at an ever-'aster rate o' innovation is re3%ired to keep ities

$ro(in$ and prevent sta$nation or ollapse+ an' in the lon$ r%n this annot be s%stainableT#e staesare #ig# Bistorically+ collapse alays le' to a *all in population CTo'ays population levels 'epen' on *ossil *uels an' in'ustrial agriculture+C saysTainter CTae t#ose aay an' t#ere oul' "e a re'uction in t#e Eart#s population t#at is too gruesome to t#in a"outC I* in'ustrialise' civilisation 'oes*all+ t#e ur"an masses - #al* t#e orl's population - ill "e most vulnera"le uc# o* our #ar'-on nole'ge coul' "e lost+ too CT#e people it# t#eleast to lose are su"sistence *armers+C %ar-0am o"serves+ an' *or some #o survive+ con'itions mig#t actually improve Per#aps t#e mee really illin#erit t#e Eart#

JINSEGT IP9&T S&EN9GI@K



7/265


Summer 12 Pg L

1n-Mindset Shi't Shell

Complexity makes collapse inevitable economic collapse causes amindset shift to sustainability.Speth # ;G#o'es Sc#olar M @x*or' University+ airman o* &ouncil on Environmental (uality *orExecutive @**ice+ Foun'er o* :orl' Gecourses Institute 7T#in-Tan=+ ,e' t#e :estern Bemisp#ereDialogue on Environment an' Development+ 9'ministrator o* Unite' Nations Development Program+Dean o* 0ale Sc#ool o* Forestry an' Environmental Stu'ies+ ,ea'er o* t#e Presi'ents Tas Force onlo"al Gecourses an' t#e Environment+ Bol's multiple aar'sONational :il'li*e Fe'erationsGecourse De*ense 9ar' an' ,i*etime 9c#ievement 9ar' o* Environmental ,a Institute+ an' %luePlanet Pri?e+ )ames+ 8T#e %ri'ge at t#e E'ge o* t#e :orl'


8/265


Summer 12 Pg /groun'e' in a gnaing *ear t#at *ree'om in 9merica #as come to mean t#e *ree'om o* t#e ric# to get ric#er even as millions o* 9mericans are 'umpe'*rom t#e Dream So let me say #at I t#in up *rontA T#e lea'ers an' t#iners an' activists #o #onestly tell t#at story an' spea passionately o* t#emoral an' religious values it puts in play ill "e t#e *irst political generation since t#e Ne Deal to in poer "ac *or t#e people Bere+ in t#e rst'eca'e o* t#e 21 st century+ t#e story t#at "ecomes 9mericas 'ominant narrative ill s#ape our collective imagination an' #ence our politicsi""en inDeep Ecology+ an' ot#ers< @ne story t#at nee's to "e tol' is a"out a people #o set out on a ourneyOa ourney t#roug# timeOto "uil' a "etter orl'*or t#emselves an' t#eir c#il- 'ren Big#-min'e' an' *ull o* #ope as t#ey "egan+ t#ey accomplis#e' muc# in t#eir uest %ut t#ey "ecame so enamore'o* t#eir successes+ in'ee' capture' "y t#em+ t#at t#ey *aile' to see t#e signs t#at pointe' in ne 'irections+ an' t#ey "ecame lost No t#ey must *in't#eir ay "ac to t#e rig#t pat#< 9not#er source o* value c#ange is social movements Social movements are all a"out raising consciousness an'+ i*success*ul+ can us#er in a ne consciousness :e spea casually a"out t#e environmental movement :e nee' a real one @ne can #ear ec#oes o*Geic# in &urtis :#ite s "oo T#e Spirit o* Diso"i'ience 89lt#oug# t#e sixties counterculture #as "een muc# maligne' an' 'iscre'ite'+ it attempte' to

provi'e #at e still 'esperately nee'A a spirite' culture o* re*usal+ a counterli*e to t#e reigning corporate culture o* 'eat# :e 'ont nee' to return tot#at counterculture+ "ut e 'o nee' to tae up its c#allenge again I* t#e or e 'o pro'uces mostly "a'+ ugly+ an' 'estructive t#ings+ t#ose t#ings inturn ill ten' to recreate us in t#eir image 8I* ere concerne' a"out t#e in' o* #uman *uture e are creating+ e must also "e concerne' it# #oe are living in t#e present Un#appily+ #o e live is presently t#e near exclusive concern o* cor- porations an' me'ia conglomerates #ic# #ave+toget#er+ turne' every ain Street into t#e same street an' ma'e t#e insi'e o* every 9merican #ea' ec#o it# t#e same vacuous music an' movie4 Tscenarios T#is is t#e arena in #ic# a spirituali?e' 'iso"e'ience means most

rig#ts movement+ an' in overcoming apart#ei' in Sout# 9*rica+ and they are no( t%rnin$ attention (ith inreasin$

stren$th to the environment

Misael | Flynn | Satveer | Sophie | Vikram | Javier | Calen | Gabe Pg /


9/265


Summer 12 Pg .

Mindset Shi't Bossible-De$ro(th Movements

Mindset shift is possible.Vitor 1" - Peter ictor is an economist at 0or University in Toronto+ @ntario an' aut#or o* anaging

:it#out rot#A Sloer "y Design+ Not Disaster+ (uestioning economic grot#+ Nature 3H/+ !L6$!L171/ Novem"er 2616=

T#e i'ea t#at governments o* 'evelope' countries s#oul' no longer pursue economic grot# as a primary policy o"ective is i'ely regar'e' as #eresy

et a $ro(in$ n%mber o' sholars& poliy-makers and iti!ens are omin$ ro%nd to the idea that

the planet annot s%stain ontin%ed $lobal eonomi $ro(thEven economist Go"ert Solo+ #o on t#e 1./LNo"el Pri?e in Economics *or #is or on economic grot#+ sai' in 266/ t#at t#e Unite' States an' Europe mig#t soon *in' t#at 8eit#er continue'grot# ill "e too 'estructive to t#e environment an' t#ey are too 'epen'ent on scarce natural resources+ or t#at t#ey oul' rat#er use increasing

pro'uctivity in t#e *orm o* leisure


10/265


Summer 12 Pg 16

Collapse Solves Mindset Shi't-Crisis

Growth mindset is fragile collapse solves.Speth # ;G#o'es Sc#olar M @x*or' University+ airman o* &ouncil on Environmental (uality *orExecutive @**ice+ Foun'er o* :orl' Gecourses Institute 7T#in-Tan=+ ,e' t#e :estern Bemisp#ereDialogue on Environment an' Development+ 9'ministrator o* Unite' Nations Development Program+Dean o* 0ale Sc#ool o* Forestry an' Environmental Stu'ies+ ,ea'er o* t#e Presi'ents Tas Force onlo"al Gecourses an' t#e Environment+ Bol's multiple aar'sONational :il'li*e Fe'erationsGecourse De*ense 9ar' an' ,i*etime 9c#ievement 9ar' o* Environmental ,a Institute+ an' %luePlanet Pri?e+ )ames+ 8T#e %ri'ge at t#e E'ge o* t#e :orl'


11/265


Summer 12 Pg 11

Collapse Solves Mindset Shi't-Deo%plin$

Economic collapse causes developing countries to abandonindustrialiation spills over to a mindset shift.Ee(is k ; Instructor in t#e Seall 9merican Stu'ies Program at t#e University o* &olora'o ris+T#e coming age o* scarcityA preventing mass 'eat# an' genoci'e in t#e tenty-*irst century+ p 53-L

T#e First :orl's *ailure to mo'emi?e an' civili?e t#e orl' s#oul' not "e seen as a trage'y+ "ut as an opportunity 0ith the inreasin$

reo$nition o' the inability o' development to resolve the eonomi and politial ontraditions

it reates+ #et#er you call it sustaina"le or not+ peoples and omm%nities (ill be one a$ain 'ored to dra( on

their o(n %lt%res& histories& reli$ions& and intimate kno(led$e o' their loal environments to

improve their lives an' ensure a Creasona"le li*eC *or t#eir c#il'ren For most o* #istory+ success*ully a'apting to c#anging local an' regionalenvironments as t#e *un'amental c#allenge *acing #uman societies %ut #o ill First :orl' political an' economic elites react to t#ese e**orts "yT#ir' :orl' peoples an' ot#ers to it#'ra *rom t#e glo"al economy an' to create a society an' *uture not "ase' on mo'- emi?a tion an' 'evelopment;T#ir' :orl' peoples re*usal to pay t#eir 'e"ts+ to sell t#eir resources to t#e 'evelope' orl'+ an' t#eir re*usal to allo t#e First :orl' an' TN&S to'ominate t#eir economies+ societies+ an' politics ill not come it#out glo"al con*lict an' struggle T#ere ill "e neocolonial ars+ political an'economic su"version+ i'esprea' su**ering an' turmoil+ an' social an' political c#aos :e itnesse' some o* t#is 'uring t#e col' ar+ #en t#e Unite'

States an' Europe *oun' more o*ten t#an not t#at t#ey #a' to *orce T#ir' :orl' people to accept 'evelopment an' t#e neocolonialism an' tremen'ouspoverty+ su**ering+ an' political unrest it create' T#e Soma- Jis an' %alan nations a"ility to use *orce to prevent continue' First :orl' 'omination aremo'els *or t#is *uture con*lict T#e process ill not "e easy It ill "e lie t#e ars an' con*licts t#at "roug#t t#e *all o* t#e ayan an' Goman empires

7Ponting 1..1= /he s%ess'%l ollapse o' $lobal ind%strial ivili!ation is& in part& dependent on the

#" perent not '%lly inte$rated (ith the $lobal eonomy breakin$ 'ree 'rom their ties to modern

ind%strial ivili!a- tion Faed (ith $ro(in$ threats o' eonomi an' ecological ollapse+ many

%nderdeveloped nations and re$ions sho%ld delare their independene 'rom the $lobal

eonomy& reo$ni!in$ that this eonomy is the lar$er a%se o' their poverty9*ter "reaing *ree *rom t#eFirst :orl's economic an' political #egemony+ un'er'evelope' countries can t#en use t#eir resources an' people to *ee' t#emselves an' improve t#eiruality o* li*e @* course+ e #ave "een itnessing suc# attempts *or t#e past *i*ty years a*ter :orl' :ar II as colonial an' neocolonial struggles *orin'epen'ence T#e ars in ietnam+ &am"o- 'ia+ 9*g#anistan+ Nicaragua+ El Salva'or+ 9ngola+ o?am"iue+ So- malia+ an' in t#e nations o* t#e*ormer Soviet Union ere all struggles to in in'epen'ence *rom *oreign 'omination T#e col' ar as+ in large part+ a struggle "eteen t#e Unite'States an' t#e Soviet Union over #o oul' 'ominate t#e mo'ern orl' an' t#e so-calle' non- aligne' nations o* t#e T#ir' :orl' :it# t#e glo"al

insta"ility create' "y t#e en' o* t#e col' ar+ t#e collapse o* t#e Soviet Union+ an' t#e 'ecline o* 9merican #egemony+ un'er'evelope' countries may*in' t#at t#ey #ave t#e strategic opportunity to 'eman' t#eir in'epen- 'ence *rom First :orl' 'omination T#ey can re*use to pay t#eir 'e"ts+ it#'ra*rom t#e glo"al in'ustrial economy+ nationali?e *oreign cor- porations t#at are exploiting t#eir ealt#+ an' create local an' regional economies tosupport t#eir on people %ut T#ir' :orl' in'epen'ence *rom t#e First :orl'-'ominate' glo"al economy ill not come it#out a #eavy economic+

political+ an' military price :it# t#e it#'raal o* un'er'evelope' countries *rom t#e glo"al eonomy (ithin the ne,t thirty to

'i'ty years& the developed o%ntries (ill 'ae ontin%al material& eolo$ial& and ener$y

shorta$es that (ill 'ore them to do(nsale their eonomies /he First 0orld (ill& ironially& be

'ored to 'ollo( the lead o' the /hird 0orld and reate loal and re$ional eonomies that are

s%stainable and sel'-s%''iient In many instances+ nations ill "rea up+ *orming smaller polities tie' toget#er "y et#nic+ religious+ orsocial "on's I* t#ese polities an' nations tae responsi"ility *or #elping t#eir peoples survive t#e #ar's#ip an' su*- *ering impose' "y t#e 'evolution o*

t#e glo"al in'ustrial civili?ation an' economy+ they (ill be better able to red%e the real threat o' mass death and

$enoide that (ill arise 'rom the ollapse o' modern ind%strial ivili!ation ost critics oul' argue+

pro"a"ly correctly+ t#at instea' o* allo- ing un'er'evelope' countries to it#'ra *rom t#e glo"al economy an' un'ermine t#e economies o* t#e'evelope' orl'+ t#e Unite' States+ Europe+ an' )apan an' ot#ers ill *ig#t neocolonial ars to *orce t#ese countries to remain it#in t#is collapsingglo"al economy T#ese neocolonial ars ill result in mass 'eat#+ su**ering+ an' even regional nuclear ars I* First :orl' countries c#oose militarycon- *rontation an' political repression to maintain t#e glo"al economy+ t#en e may see mass 'eat# an' genoci'e on a glo"al scale t#at ill mae t#e'eat#s o* :orl' :ar II pale in comparison Boever+ t#ese neocolonial ars+ *oug#t to maintain t#e 'evelope' nations economic an' political#egemony+ ill cause t#e *inal collapse o* our glo"al in'ustrial civili?ation T#ese ars ill so 'amage t#e complex economic an' tra'ing netorsan' suan'er material+ "iological+ an' energy resources t#at t#ey ill un'ermine t#e glo"al economy an' its a"ility to support t#e eart#s H to / "illion

people T#is oul' "e t#e orst-case scenario *or t#e collapse o* glo"al civili?ation 9t is also entirely possible that the $lobal

eonomy is already so 'ra$ile that developed o%ntries annot a''ord to en$a$e in these neo-

olonial (ars& especially i* t#ey 'o not 'o it as a glo"al "loc o* 'e- velope' nations t#roug# t#e Unite' Nations T#e 'esperate struggle among



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Summer 12 Pg 12competing mo'ern empires to maintain t#eir resource pipe- lines into t#e un'er'evelope' orl' ill only *urt#er un'ermine glo- "al civili?ation:arring nations attempts to cripple t#eir enemies "y 'enying access to t#eir economies an' resources ill only #asten t#e collapse o* t#e glo"al

economy No matter ho( it ollapses+ t#roug# economic collapse an' t#e 'evelopment o* local an' regional economies or t#roug# a

glo"al military struggle "y t#e First :orl' to maintain its access to T#ir' :orl' resources+ or "ot# mo'ern ind%strial ivili!ation (ill

ollapse"ecause its 'eman's *or energy+ natural resources+ an' ecosystem ser- vices are not sustaina"le /he %rrent ollapse o'

eonomies and states in +'ria& Eatin +meria& and the 'ormer Soviet 5nion demonstrate that

this $lobal ollapse is already o%rrin$ T#e inability o' the 5nited States and the 5nited Nations

in the 1"s to solve the eonomi and politial problems that e,aerbate on'lits in +'ria&

Eatin +meria& )astern )%rope& and the 'ormer Soviet 5nion demonstrate that the developed

o%ntries mi$ht be %nder s%h eonomi and politial stress that they annot a''ord to %se the

politial or military apital neessary to 'ore realitrant nations and peoples to remain (ithin

the $lobal ind%strial eonomy 9lt#oug# many oul' argue t#at t#e massive 'eat# an' su**ering cause' "y t#ese con*licts must "estoppe'+ it coul' "e t#at t#is 'eat# ill "e less t#an i* t#e First :orl' intervene' an' trie' to *orce T#ir' :orl' countries to remain it#in glo"alcivili?ation 9t- tempts to intervene in t#ese groing regional con*licts+ on t#e "asis o* li"eral intemationalism an' glo"al civili?ation+ ill "ac*ire an'cause only more su**ering In *act+ t#ese interventions ill *urt#er accelerate t#e collapse o* glo"al civili?ation



13/265


Summer 12 Pg 1!

Collapse Solves Mindset Shi't-Eoali!ation

Collapse forces a shift to localiation.Ee(is k ;Instructor in t#e Seall 9merican Stu'ies Program at t#e University o* &olora'o ris+T#e coming age o* scarcityA preventing mass 'eat# an' genoci'e in t#e tenty-*irst century+ p 33-35

9 (ill ar$%e that (e are (itnessin$ the ollapse o' $lobal ind%strial ivili!ation Driven "y in'ivi'ualism+materialism+ an' t#e en'less pursuit o* ealt# an' poer+ t#e mo'ern in'ustriali?e' orl's e*- *orts to mo'erni?e an' integrate t#e orl' politically+economically+ an' culturally since :orl' :ar II are only accelerating t#is glo"al collapse In t#e late-tentiet# century+ glo"al 'evelopment leaves /6

percent o* t#e orl's population outsi'e t#e in'ustriali?e' nations progress an' a**luence 7:allimann 1..3= :#en t#e mo'ern in'ustriali?e' orl'collapses+ people in t#e un'er'evelope' orl' ill continue t#eir 'aily struggle *or 'ignity an' survival at t#e margins o* a mori"un' glo"al in'ustrial

civili?ation 0ith the ollapse o' the modern (orld& smaller& a%tonomo%s& loal and re$ional

ivili!ations& %lt%res& and politis (ill emer$e :e can re'uce t#e t#reat o* mass 'eat# an' genoci'e t#at ill surely accom-pany t#is collapse "y encouraging t#e creation an' grot# o* sustain- a"le+ sel*-su**icient regional polities )o#n &o"" #as alrea'y ma'e a case *or #o

t#is may or in t#e Unite' States an' #o it is oring in >erala+ In'ia +'ter the ollapse o' $lobal ivili!ation& modern

peoples (ill not have the material reso%res& biolo$ial apital& and ener$y to reestablish $lobal

ivili!ation Fored by eonomi neessity to beome dependent on loal reso%res and

eosystems 'or their s%rvival& peoples thro%$ho%t the (orld (ill (ork to onserve and restoretheir environments For the soieties that destroy their loal environments an' economies+ as mo'em people

so o*ten 'o& (ill themselves 'ae ollapse and r%in

Misael | Flynn | Satveer | Sophie | Vikram | Javier | Calen | Gabe Pg 1!


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Summer 12 Pg 13

Collapse K S%stainable Soiety

Collapse is key to solve poverty and atrocities !"!s prove that post#mindset shift economies are net betterKlassen - *ormer senior e'itor it# 9'"usters maga?ine+ an' no a senior partner at %iro &reative7Nic#olas 8Islamic Economics< )uly #ttpA44somaliaonlinecom4cgi-"in4u""4ultimate""cgi;u""VgetWtopicR*V/RtV666555RpV6

Picture it In t#e not-too-'istant *uture+ the 5S eonomy is teeterin$ a'ter deades o' debt a%m%lationPaper

transactions an' e,ess ons%mption arry on relentlessly despitet#e groing depletion o' real apitalSpeculation spirals out o* control ust as "ans start calling "ac t#eir cre'it Policymaers 'isregar' *inancial pru'ence in t#eir pursuit o* Pax

9mericana +nd then aorl'i'e plague or a terrorist attak provides the tippin$ point 'or total eonomi

ollapse :#at t#en; :ill economists #ave learne' any lessons; To anser t#is+ e mig#t "egin "y examining t#e et#ics o* capitalism @r rat#er

t#e lac t#ereo* Capitalism is*amous *or "eing 'ree o' moral onsiderations /o neo-liberaleconomic $%r% ilton

Frie'man+ the e,petation that b%siness bears any HIsoial responsibilities is a '%ndamentally

s%bversive dotrine 8&apitals only expectation is to increase pro*its 9s a result+ (e operate in an eonomy (here

b%siness administration st%dents are ta%$ht that @$reed is $ood& ompetition is stressed over

solidarity& and the poor are le't lar$ely to 'end 'or themselves In lig#t o* t#is moral vacuity+ it 'oesnt come as a

surprise t#at theorl's rih have ri$$ed the $lobal eonomi $ame in their 'avor Beoplein t#e nort# sit "ac

an' en2oyt#eir treas%res (hilet#eir sout#ern nei$hbors str%$$le to s%rvive Even ostensi"ly (ell-intentioned

e''orts to alleviate $lobal povertylie t#e :orl' %an an' t#e International onetary Fun' 7im*= mana$e to make

thin$s (orse Sine the establishment o' these 'inanial instit%tions H6 years ago+ the inome $ap

bet(een the 'irst and third (orld has (idened& andto'ay 1A billion people live on an inome o'

less than 1 a day T#e people o* 9rgentina no all a"out t#e 'ar si'e o* :orl' %an4im* prescriptions T#ey 'ont nee' to imagine #at

an economic collapse mig#t loo lie 9n ""& a'ter years o' 'ollo(in$ diretives to dere$%late markets&

red%e p%bli spendin$& and liberali!e trade& +r$entina 'o%nd itsel' in a 'inanial mess +

o%ntry that had been tr%mpeted as a $reat s%ess 'o%nd itsel' reelin$as a%sterity meas%resa%$ht %p& investors $ot sared& pro'its 'led the o%ntry& and the national debt-load

m%shroomed9rgentinians atc#e' #elplessly as t#eir banks (ere losed andt#eir savin$s evaporated 0orld

6ank presriptions else(here have been e3%ally devastatin$ Un'er Structural 9'ustment Programs 7saps=+

developin$ o%ntries have been re3%ired to deval%e their %rrenies& slash their ivil servies&

privati!e state assets& and remove prie ontrols and import tari''s desi$ned to protet loal

ind%stries In a country lie Xam"ia+ t#e e**ects #ave "een so over#elmingly negative t#at many people are convince' sap stan's *or YZ[Satani

ali panoYZ 7Satan in our mi'st= /hanks to the 0orld 6ank& yo%n$ hildren o'ten anHLt attend p%bli

shool bea%se 'ees are re3%ired& p%rhasin$ po(er has taken a nosedive thanks to the

deval%ation o' the %rreny& and %rable diseases are le't %ntreated bea%se o' depleted health

servies T#e poliies haveliterally killed people Even t#e "an is conscious o* t#e 'ar clou' #overing over its saps an' #asc#ange' t#eir name to Poverty Ge'uction Strategy Papers T#e irony o* course is t#at rih o%ntries 'ore poor ones to open %p

their markets and liberali!et#eir trade poliies b%t donHLt adhere to their o(n e,hortations Per#aps t#e most egregious example o* t#is is t#e \!66 "illion 'ole' out in *arm su"si'ies every year "y t#e EU an' t#e US :it# so many t#ir' orl'

in#a"itants engage' in su"sistence *arming+ t#e elimination o' a$ri%lt%ral protetionism (o%ld do (onders 'or

so%thern eonomies &an suc# a corrupte' economic system "e re'eeme'; T#e :orl' Tra'e @rgani?ation #as c#i'e' t#e US *or its cotton

su"si'ies+ an' 9mericans may eventually "e *orce' to a"i'e "y t#eir *ree tra'e r#etoric+ "ut suc# minor orretions (ill do little to

improve the lon$-term prospets 'or $lobal eonomi 2%stie +ny real e''ort to address third

http://www.somaliaonline.com/cgi-bin/ubb/ultimatebb.cgi?ubb=get_topic;f=8;t=000555;p=0http://www.somaliaonline.com/cgi-bin/ubb/ultimatebb.cgi?ubb=get_topic;f=8;t=000555;p=0http://www.somaliaonline.com/cgi-bin/ubb/ultimatebb.cgi?ubb=get_topic;f=8;t=000555;p=0http://www.somaliaonline.com/cgi-bin/ubb/ultimatebb.cgi?ubb=get_topic;f=8;t=000555;p=0


15/265


Summer 12 Pg 15(orld poverty (ill re3%ire a s(eepin$ eonomi paradi$m shi't9n' a cataclysmic ollapse mi$ht be

the only (ay to brin$ that abo%t %ut (hat i'& %p 'rom the ashes& a ne( eonomy in'%sed (ith a

moral ompass emer$ed* T#e groing 'iscipline o* Islamic economics #ints at t#e potential to #ar'ire an economy it# et#icalconsi'erations For centuries+ uslims #ave "len'e' economic principles it# religious la+ non as s#aria In t#e past *e 'eca'es+ t#is synt#esis #as

evolve' into a *ormal system o* Islamic economics Un'er t#is arrangement+ the basi 'rame(ork o' the eonomy is le't %p

to the market& b%t it is also or$ani!ed aro%nd ethial investment r%les that prohibit p%ttin$money into ompanies that pro'it 'rom alohol& $amblin$& tobao& (eaponsor por-relate' pro'uctsIslamic economics also man'ate participatory arrangements "eteen capital an' la"or an' a "an on interest T#is rule stems *rom t#e un'erstan'ing t#at

since 9lla# 'etermines t#e *ailure o* a *inancial venture+ the borro(er sho%ld not be the sole bearer o' the ost 9s

*ormali?e' Islamic economics #as gaine' a'#erents+ 9slami 'inanial instit%tions7i*is= #ave enoye' enormous grot# rates 9F9S

engage in real economic activity YZ8 as oppose' to passive speculation YZ8 an' make money (ork as apital& not debt )ven

tho%$h 9slami banks are beholden to priniples o' soial responsibility that make them less

pro'it-driven than (estern interest-based banks& they have proven to be 3%ite l%rative T#ere iseven an International Islamic Financial aret c#arge' it# c]]]]]ng t#e course *or a"out 266 Islamic "ans an' *inancial institutions aroun' t#e

orl' 9n' t#e principles o* Islamic economics 'onYZ^t ust apply to "ans S#aria insurance *irms are also gaining popularity Conepts like

Hno interestHL mi$ht seem 'ani'%l to (estern skeptis& b%t an eonomy (ith a moral ode

o%ld provide a re'reshin$ relie' 'or the (orldHLs poor Un*ortunately+ it mi$ht take an eonomiollapse to make it happen %ut one (eHLve d%sted o%rselves o'' and be$%n to reb%ild& there

(ill be no plae 'or neo-lassial 'inanial thinkin$ T#an*ully our uslim "ret#ren ill "e rea'y to provi'e us (ith

the tools 'or an alternative system



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Summer 12 Pg 1H

Collapse K S%stainable Soiety

Consumptive ideology and the drive for increasing wealth andresources make atrocities and extinction inevitable economiccatastrophe is key to generate a mindset shift$ creating asustainable societyD2ord2evi #$ Inter'isciplinary inor in lo"al Sustaina"ility Senior Seminar University o*&ali*ornia+ Irvine+ 7)o#nny+ arc#+ 8Sustaina"ility+ %ns%stainable ons%mption and

environmental destr%tion T the emer$in$ trend to(ards trans'ormation > s%stainable ideas&

val%es and tehnolo$ies /hese t(o trends are the ma2or 'ores shapin$ the (orld todayU T#ere isno guarantee t#at all t#e necessary elements o* a sustaina"le system ill 'evelop uicly enoug# to prevent irreversi"le environmental an' social'amage aor evolutionary trans*ormations only occur a*ter a critical num"er o* use*ul para'igm c#anging 'evelopments 7*unctional mutations= #avetaen place it#in a "iological or social system I* t#ese ne system components are compati"le+ t#eir interactions can "egin to c#ange t#e *orm an'

*unction o* t#e entire system +ll o' the key soial and tehnolo$ial omponents o' a s%stainable system(ill have to be present be'ore it (ill be possible 'or o%r ons%mer soiety to trans'orm itsel' into

a onserver soiety For this reason (e need to atively s%pport their development 9n order to

do this (e need to %nderstand not only the evol%tionary proess b%t also the re3%irements o' a

s%stainable systemT#e purpose o* Evolutions E'ge is to #elp us 'etermine #o e can "est support t#e constructive trans*ormation o* ourorl' anging t#e orl' T#e c#allenge is not ust to c#ange our values an' social institutions+ "ut to c#ange t#em uicly enoug# to avoi'

environmental an' social 'isaster %ut #o can a orl' system "ase' on poer+ violence an' ineuality "ecome peace*ul an' ust; Global

problems o'ten appear to be too lar$e and omple, to %nderstand& let alone mana$e /his is

bea%se h%man soieties& like (eather systems& are open systems (ith haoti and omple,

dynamis .o(ever& sine all open systems operate (ithin de'inable parameters and 'ollo(

preditable patterns& appropriate theories an be %sed to e,plain and predit the dynamis o'

both (eather systems and soietal systems T#e ey to analy?ing an' managing glo"al c#ange is to recogni?e t#at o%r

ind%strial ivili!ation is not only a dynami system 7it# all t#e c#aracteristics o* 'ynamic systems= b%t also a

livin$ and evolvin$ soietal system Evolutionary systems t#eory provi'es us it# poer*ul tools *rom "ot# t#e natural an' socialsciences *or analy?ing complex glo"al pro"lems/ y *at#er 9lastair Taylor+ a #istorian an' political geograp#er+ as t#e *irst to use evolutionarysystems t#eory to explain t#e #istorical evolution o* societal systems an' orl'vies :#ile previous societal systems 7#istorical ages= too t#ousan's

o* years to 'evelop+ e #ave only a *e years le*t in #ic# to trans*orm our civili?ation Fortunately+ (e do not have to start 'rom

s3%are one 6ea%se the shi't to a holisti soiety be$an over a h%ndred years a$o& many o' the

key omponents o' a s%stainable soietal system are already present.oreover+ our species is constantly

learning ne sills an' "ecoming increasingly a'apta"le 9t t#e same time as our civili?ation #as "ecome unsustaina"le+ o%r speies has

a3%ired the ability to redesi$n livin$ systems 0e no( %nderstand biolo$ial and soial

proesses (ell eno%$h to make sienti'i interventions s%h as $eneti modi'iation and %lt%ralinterventions s%h as marketin$ Sientists have no( identi'ied the basi omponents and odes

o' biolo$ial systems and are rain$ to reate arti'iial li'e16 5nderstandin$ ho( livin$ systems

(orkis "ot# poer*ul an' 'angerous nole'ge :#ile it can "e use' in irresponsi"le an' 'estructive ays+ it analso be %sed

onstr%tively to help %s desi$n a s%stainable soietal system 6ea%se evol%tion is abo%t

innovation7t#e emergence o* ne *orms an' *unctions=+ it is possi"le *or #umans to accelerate evolutionary processes 0e an s%pport

the emer$ene o' a s%stainable ivili!ation thro%$h onsio%sly inventin$ and onstr%tin$

ritial tehnial and %lt%ral omponents @* course t#ere are pro*oun' 'i**erences "eteen p#ysical an' living systemsP#ysical systems are externally create' #ile living systems are sel*-organi?ing Societal systems maintain t#emselves+ repro'uce t#emselves an'

c#ange t#emselves T#is means t#at in or'er to "e success*ul+ societal interventions must "uil' on an' support existing processes 9' the

interventions res%lt in %se'%l innovations '%ntional m%tations& they are likely to be adopted

and spread thro%$ho%t the system1 T#e purpose o* Evolutions E'ge is to contri"ute to t#e 'esign an' sel*-organi?ation o* alogical+ ora"le solution to our planets maor pro"lems _ First e ill nee' a clear statement o* t#e general pro"lem an' t#e general solution O a'eclaration o* t#e mission an' vision _Next e ill nee' to examine #at ors an' #at 'oesnt or in our current system in or'er to 'istinguis#

"a' practices 7#at causes pro"lems= *rom "est practices 7#at supports solutions= _T#en e ill nee' to lin t#e "est practices toget#er in synergisticays t#at support social netoring 7social sel*-organi?ing= an' t#e emergence o* *unctional ne structures Soun' easy; :ell+ it ont "e T#e 'evil isin t#e 'etails O #o t#e netor connects toget#er T#e vision #as to "e rig#t an' t#e components #ave to #ave a 'esign t#at ena"les t#em to sel*-organi?e into a sustaina"le system In *act+ in or'er to 'esign a "etter social netor e nee' not only "etter t#eories "ut an entirely ne para'igm %ute are alrea'y more t#an #al* ay t#ere O "etter t#eories an' t#e ne para'igm #ave alrea'y "een 'evelope' :#en Presi'ent )o#n >enne'yannounce' on ay 25+ 1.H1 t#at t#e US oul' put #umans on t#e moon it#in a 'eca'e+ many 'ou"te' #et#er #is am"itious goals coul' "e ac#ieve'9lt#oug# t#e tec#nology 'i' not yet exist *or a trip to t#e moon+ t#e proect as launc#e' "ecause it as t#eoretically possi"le 7an' in t#e vie o* t#eUS a'ministration+ a strategic necessity=1! T#e proect ac#ieve' its goals a#ea' o* sc#e'uleA t#e *irst astronaut lan'e' on t#e moon on )uly 26+ 1.H.



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Summer 12 Pg 2!/he hallen$e that h%manity 'aes no( is to rapidly trans'orm o%r %ns%stainable $lobal system

into a s%stainable system /he s%rvival o' o%r speies is a more %r$ent and important taskt#an t#espace race+ alt#oug# it is in many ays a similar proect ,ie going to t#e moon+ e only #ave a general i'ea o* #o e ill 'o it 9n' alt#oug# many

'i**icult pro"lems remain to "e solve'+ e alrea'y #ave t#e "asic t#eoretical sills t#at e ill nee' to solve t#em 0e an e,pet to

eno%nter enormo%s resistane /ehnolo$ial innovations O lie railays an' cars O have al(ays had to

overome initial derision and opposition& and soial innovations O lie 'emocracy an' pu"lic e'ucation Ohave been stron$ly opposed Vested interests have al(ays ar$%ed that pro$ressive han$es (ill

a%se eonomi r%in and soial haos /he same ar$%ments are no( bein$ raised a$ainst e''orts

to protet the environment and to introd%e rene(able tehnolo$ies +s al(ays& these

ar$%ments are sel'-servin$ and irrational 6ea%se the $lobal eonomy is no lon$er s%stainable&

the omplete trans'ormation o' the e,istin$ system is not an option& b%t a re3%irement

Creatin$ a more e''iient and e3%itable eonomy (ill not a%se a $lobal depression > it is the

only possible (ay to avoid eonomi ollapse and s%stain eonomi $ro(th

Misael | Flynn | Satveer | Sophie | Vikram | Javier | Calen | Gabe Pg 2!


24/265


Summer 12 Pg 23

+/-/ransition 0ars

'ransition wars are unlikely and the chance of reaching sustainablesociety outweighs any risk/rainer -,ecturer+ Sc#ool o* Social :or+ University o* Ne Sout# :ales 7Te'+ 8De"ating t#eSigni*icance o* t#e lo"al Eco-village ovementA 9 Geply to Tais Fotopoulos< Democracy ` Nature+ol /+ No 1+ 2662=

Boever 9 am not onvined the transition m%st inevitably involveovert on'lit+ let alone violence It pro"a"ly

ill+ "ut it is oneivable that as onditions deteriorate and as the e,istene o' a more sensible (ay

beomes more evident+ an' as aess to it inreases as a res%lt o' )o-villa$e b%ildin$& there (ill

be amore or less peae'%l shi't to /he Simpler 0ay 9gain I 'o not t#in t#is is very liely+ "ut it is possibility to be

(orked 'or Not#ing is *oregone in #ea'ing 'on t#at pat#+ on t#e un'erstan'ing t#at in time it mig#t "ecome clear t#at overt con*rontation mig#t

#ave to "e accepte' /he lon$er (e an $ro( (hile avoidin$ on'rontation the less likely t#at (e (ill be

r%shedi* it 'oes occur Boever the iss%e is o' nopractical importane at thispoint in time :#atever conclusion one

comes to on it o%r best strate$y#ere an' no is to pl%n$e into establishin$ and spreadin$t#e ne( (ays It ill"e a lon$ time be'oreit ill "e evi'ent #et#er or not (e m%st ontest those (ho have po(er no(& or#et#er

they (ill loset#eir po(er in a ollapse o' the present reso%re-e,pensive in'rastr%t%resan' o*legitimacy



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Summer 12 Pg 25

:::/op Eevel 9mpat Debate:::



26/265


Summer 12 Pg 2H

Gro(th 0ar-),tintion

Growth causes con(ict and extinctionChase-D%nnan' Po'o"ni+ assistant pro*essor o* sociology+ ristoper+ D irector o* t#e Institute*or Gesearc# on :orl'-Systems+ + 9ssistant Pro*essor in t#e Department o* Sociology at U o* &ali*ornia+an' %ruce+ 9nt#ropology at ,eis an' &lar &ollege+ T#e Future o* lo"al &on*lict+ e' %ornsc#ier an'ase-Dunn+ pg 3!=

:#ile t#e onset o* a perio' o* #egemonic rivalry is in itsel* 'istur"ing+ t#e picture "ecomes even grimmer #en t#e in*luence o* long-term economic

cycles is taen into account +s an e,tensive body o' researh do%ments7see especially an Duin+ 1./!=+ the56 to H6 year

"usiness cycle non as t#e >on'ratie** ave 7K-(ave= has been insync#ronous operation on an international sale

'or at leastt#e last t(o ent%ries Utili?ing 'ata gat#ering "y ,evy 71./!= on ar severity+ ol'stein 71.//= 'emonstrates t#at there is

a orrespondin$ A" to U" year yle in the n%mber o' battle deaths per year 'or the period 1A-

1OA %eyon' merely s#oing t#at t#e >-ave an' t#e ar cycle are line' in a systematic *as#ion+ ol'steins researh s%$$ests that

severe ore (ars are m%h more likely to o%rlate in the %ps(in$p#ase o' the K-(ave T#is *in'ing is

interprete' as s#oing t#at+ (hile states al(ays desire to $o to (ar+ they an a''ord to do so only (hen

eonomi $ro(th is providin$ them (ith s%''iient reso%res o'elsi an' T#ompson 71..H= present a morecomplex interpretation o* t#e systemic relations#ip "eteen economic an' ar cycles+ "ut it closely resem"les ol'steins #ypot#esis In t#eir analysis+a *irst economic upsing generates t#e economic resources reuire' "y an ascen'ing core state to mae a "i' *or #egemonyR a secon' perio' o*economic grot# *ollos a perio' o* glo"al ar an' t#e esta"lis#ment o* a ne perio' o* #egemony Bere+ again+ speci*ic economic upsings are

associate' it# an increase' lieli#oo' o* t#e out"rea o* core ar 9t is (idely aepted that the %rrent K-(ave+ #ic#

entere' a 'onturn aroun' 1.HL-L!+ ispro"a"ly no(in t#e process o* be$innin$ a ne( %pt%rn (hih (ill reah its ape,

aro%nd "A It is also i'ely accepte' t#at by this period 5S he$emony+ already %nravelin$+ (ill have"een

'e*initively eroded /his onver$ene o' a platea%in$ eonomi yle (itha perio' o* politial

m%ltientriityit#in t#e core sho%ld+ i* #istory truly 'oes repeat itsel*+ res%lt in the o%tbreak o' '%ll-sale (ar'are

bet(een the delinin$ he$emon and the asendin$ ore po(ers 9lt#oug# "ot# ol'stein 71..1= an' o'elsi an'

T#ompson 71..H= assert t#at suc# a glo"al ar can 7some#o= "e avoi'e'+ ot#er theorists onsider that the possibility o' s%h

a ore (ar is s%''iiently hi$h that serio%s steps sho%ld be taken to ens%re that s%h olletives%iide does not o%r

Misael | Flynn | Satveer | Sophie | Vikram | Javier | Calen | Gabe Pg 2H


27/265


Summer 12 Pg 2L

1n-0arP5ps(in$ Shell

Economic collapse solves war)growth causes it.6oehmer O ;arles %oe#mer University o* Texas+ T#e E**ects o* Economic &risis+ DomesticDiscor'+ an' State E**icacy on t#e Decision to Initiate Interstate &on*lict+ Politics ` Policy+ olume !5+No 3 7266L=A LL3-/6.

]ID V ilitari?e' Inter-state Dispute

Economic rot# an' Fatal IDs T#e t#eory presente' earlier pre'icts t#at lo(er rates o' $ro(th s%ppress partiipation in

'orei$n on'lits& parti%larly onernin$ on?it initiation and esalation to ombat /o s%stain

ombat& states need to be militarily prepared and not open %p a seond 'ront (hen they are

already W$htin$& or may 'ear& domesti opposition 9 goo' example oul' "e #en t#e various 9*g#ani resistance g#tersexpelle' t#e Soviet Union *rom t#eir territory+ "ut t#e Tali"an crum"le' #en it #a' to *ace t#e com"ine' *orces o* t#e Unite' States an' Nort#ern9lliance insurrection 0et t#e coe*cient *or DP grot# an' ID initiations as negative "ut insignicant Boever+ consi'ering t#at t#ere are manyreasons #y states g#t+ t#e logic presente' earlier s#oul' #ol' especially in regar' to t#e ris o* participating in more severe conQicts T#reats to usemilitary *orce may "e sa*e to mae an' may "e ma'e it# "ot# external an' internal actors in min'+ "ut in t#e en' may remain mere c#eap tal t#at 'oes

not ris escalation i* t#ere is a c#ance to "ac 'on Chio!!a and Goemans ""b 'o%nd that se%re leaders (eremore likely to beome involved in (ar than inse%re leaders+ supporting t#e t#eory an' evi'ence presente' #ere

0e sho%ld Wnd that leaders (ho 'ae domesti opposition and a poorly per'ormin$ eonomy

shy a(ay 'rom sit%ations that o%ld esalate to ombat i' doin$ so (o%ld ompromise their

ability to retain po(er Ta"le 5 presents t#e results #ere t#e external conQict measure is Fatal ID onset 9 *e points are in or'er "e*ore'iscussing t#e results First+ I measure grot# in t#is mo'el it# a t#ree-year moving average consi'ering t#at t#e 'ecision to engage in *oreign clas#es+#ic# involve com"at+ may liely "e "ase' on several years o* grot# or 'omestic sta"ility+ alt#oug# t#e results are similar *or a one-year lag or movingaverages o* ot#er 'urations "eteen to an' *our years Secon'+ alt#oug# my t#eory species a 'irectional relations#ip claiming t#at economic grot#

s#oul' increase t#e lieli#oo' o* conQict+ t#e res%lts arepresente' based on a t(o-tailed testto "e consistent it# t#e rest o* t#e

mo'els T#us+ t#e results are biased a$ainst my theory andt#e statistial si$niWane is stron$ert#an presente'

)onomi $ro(th is positively related to the onset o' 'orei$n on'lits that lead to 'atalities and

this is si$niWant belo( the "A level (ith a one-tailed test /his part o' my theory is th%ss%pported T#e "aseline pro"a"ility o* a Fatal ID in t#is mo'el is 63/+ as 'epicte' in Ta"le H 9 one stan'ar' 'eviation in DP grot#+ protest+an' re"ellion all #ave t#e same approximate su"stantive increase in pro"a"ility o* 66H to 66L+ #ereas 'emocracy an' 'evelopment #ave a similar

paci*ying e**ect o* -61 Figures 3 t#roug# H map t#e range o* pro"a"ilities o* DP grot#+ protest+ an' re"ellion respectively )onomi

Gro(th inreases the risk o' a Fatal M9D #ereas regime c#ange "ecomes less liely 7Figure 3= 13 9gain t#oug#+ a grap# cangive us a more complete picture compare' to t#e in*ormation in Ta"le H Figure 5 s#os t#at t#e e**ect on political protest is more severe over t#e *ullrange o* t#e scale :#ereas t#e ris o* a Fatal ID levels o** an' 'rops+ t#e relations#ip "eteen protest an' regime c#ange is linear an' continuesupar' :e see a similar pattern in Figure H it# regar' to re"ellion T#ere*ore+ #en e loo at t#e mi''le range o* pro"a"ilities *or t#e t#ree

varia"les+ t#ey appear to #ave similar e**ects+ b%t at the hi$hest levels o' domesti on'lit 7"eyon' one stan'ar' 'eviation=+

the risk o' a Fatal M9D at%ally dereasesIn t#is manner+ t#ere is support *or t#e t#eory t#at economic grot# in'ee' raises

t#e pro"a"ility o* interstate conQicts t#at result in *atalities+ #ereas domesti on'lit like(ise inreases this risk& b%t

only to a point /he hi$hest levels o' domesti on?it at%ally red%e M9D initiation+ ID targets+ an'

Fatal IDs Bence+ i' state leaders attempt to divert bea%se o' domesti on?it& they learly avoidesalatin$ e,ternal on?its to the point o' 'atalities and riskin$ (ar I #ave t#eori?e' in t#is stu'y t#ateconomic grot# s#oul' "e positively relate' to militari?e' interstate conQicts #ile at t#e same time it s#oul' re'uce t#e ris o* 'omestic regimec#anges I also expecte' t#at 'omestic conQict oul' re'uce t#e ris o* interstate conQict T#e researc# 'esign use' #ere specically allos *or acomparison o* t#e relative pro"a"ilities o* "ot# interstate conQict an' regime c#anges I n' only partial support *or "ot# my t#eory an' t#e conclusionso*ten ma'e in stu'ies o* 'iversionary conQict t#at loer rates o* economic grot# s#oul' lea' to interstate conQict+ alt#oug# in cases #ere t#is occurs+t#is is in *act *olloe' "y some *orm o* regime c#ange+ suggesting t#at 'iversion as not success*ul or t#e only tactic politically necessary In *act+ t#ealternative t#eory presente' #ere as supporte' in regar' to t#e most severe interstate conQicts Big#er levels o* economic grot# are positively relate'to t#e onset o* 'ea'ly interstate conQicts Boever+ t#e results concerning 'omestic conQict are interesting an' "ot# support an' contra'ict my t#eoryIn'ee'+ 'omestic conQict increases t#e t#reat o* "ot# regime c#anges an' interstate conQict+ "ut only to a point T#e e**ects o* protest an' re"ellion are

Misael | Flynn | Satveer | Sophie | Vikram | Javier | Calen | Gabe Pg 2L


28/265


Summer 12 Pg 2/generally nonlinear #ere only t#e mi''le levels contri"ute to interstate conQict T#e #ig#est levels o* protest an' re"ellion actually re'uce t#e ris o*interstate conQict T#is suggests t#at state lea'ers may attempt 'iversion as long as protest an' re"ellion are not so severe+ alt#oug# "eyon' somemi''le-range t#res#ol' lea'ers s#y aay *rom especially t#e most severe interstate conQicts @ne post #oc rationale coul' "e t#at lea'ers are insulate'*rom 'omestic opponents to some 'egree an' are not constraine' until 'omestic conQict reac#es a certain t#res#ol'

Misael | Flynn | Satveer | Sophie | Vikram | Javier | Calen | Gabe Pg 2/


29/265


Summer 12 Pg 2.

n-0ar 9mpat Cal%l%s

!ntensity)wars in upswing are *+ times as deadly.Goldstein ,, #)os#ua S ol'stein+ Pro*essor o* International Gelations+ 9merican University+1.//+ ,ong &ycles+ pp 233-23/

T#e connection "eteen economic p#ase perio's an' ars is investigate' in several ays ,evys 8great poer ars< 7class 2+ a"ove= are categori?e'7ta"le 113= accor'ing to t#e economic p#ase perio' in #ic# t#e ar 8mainly< *ell 7see 'e*initions a"ove+ p 2!.= T#irty-one ars occurre' 'uringupsings+ tenty-seven 'uring 'onsings+ an' six seriously overlappe' p#ase perio's 7see also ta"le 115+ column L= T#us #ar'ly any more ars

occurre' on t#e upsing p#ases t#an t#e 'onsings %ut in total battle 'atalities7severity=+ except *or t#e 15L5O.3 upsing+ there

is a lear alternation bet(een %ps(in$ and do(ns(in$p#ases More severe (ars o%rred d%rin$

%ps(in$ phases I #ave ta"ulate' six ar in'icators "y p#ase perio' 7ta"le 11 5=2H T#e *irst in'icator 7col != 'erives *rom t#e list o* *atalities7ta"le 113=+ #ere expresse' as an average annual *atality rate in eac# p#ase2L T#is in'icator is also 'isplaye' as a "ar c#art in *igure 11! :it# t#e

exception o* t#e 7lo-*atality= upsing o* 15L5O.3+ 'atalities 'ollo( the patterno* upsings an' 'onsings thro%$ho%t the

#1-year span o' the data Up t#roug# 1/.2+ the avera$e ann%al 'atality rate (assix times #ig#er on upsings t#an

on 'onsingsR i* t#e tentiet# century is inclu'e'+ it is t(enty-one times hi$her on %ps(in$s than do(ns(in$s&ategori?ing t#e same *atality 'ata 8strictly< "y p#ase perio' 7col 3=+2/ in conunction it# t#e met#o' ust 'iscusse'+ points to sensitivities to t#e exact

'ating o* turning points Not surprisingly+ t#e main e**ect is on t#e tentiet# centurys to orl' ars+ eac# overlapping one to to years into ana'acent p#ase T#e results also s#o t#e eaest correlation to "e in t#e perio' 13.5O1H26 Nonet#eless+ t#e *atality rate on upsings is still more

t#an *our times #ig#er t#an on 'onsings *or "ot# 13.5O1/.2 an' 13.5O1.L5 /he $reater severity o' (ar onlong ave

%ps(in$s+ t#en+ is a very stron$ and onsistent orrelation2.

-robability growth makes miscalculation much more likelyoehmer$ */+/7arles G+ 9ssociate Pro*essor o* Political Science at t#e University o* TexasEl Paso+ 8Economic rot# an' violent international con*lictA 1/L5-1...+< De*ence an' PeaceEconomics+ olume 21+ Issue !+ )une=

T#e point #ere is to mae it clear t#at ar nee' not "e a result o* economic grot# "ut t#at #en$ro(th does ontrib%te tointerstate violene it does so by servin$ as a atalyst o' (illin$ness a$ainst a bakdrop o'

opport%nities Chinese leaders may be less likely to bak a(ay 'rom violent interstate on'lit i'

a risis o%rs d%rin$ a period o' eonomi $ro(th than they (o%ld be'ore eonomi $ro(th&

and this risk is hi$her 'or China bea%se its ma2or po(er stat%s and re$ion provide more

opport%nities relative to most other states %ase' on t#e rationale a"ove+ I 'o not pre'ict t#at economic grot# maes it moreliely t#at states ill initiate militari?e' con*licts it# ot#er states+ or t#at it increases t#eir overall con*lict propensity Economic grot# appears

'angerous in t#ose situations #ere states are alrea'y involve' in a con*lict "y makin$ it more likely that a state (ill

reiproate or esalate on'lits Considerin$ that (ar is a s%boptimal o%tome Gart!ke& 1&

states (o%ld not risk esalatin$ on'lits to violene or (ar i' they have reason to believe that

they may lose .%bris may lead states into on'lits that t%rn deadly by providin$ an inreased

(illin$ness to 'i$ht or even distortin$ and in'latin$ leaders< pereption o' state stren$th States o*tenmarc# o** to ar t#ining t#at t#e ar ill "e s#ort an' t#at t#eir si'e ill prevail 7%lainey+ 1.//=R 9 s%spet eonomi $ro(th

inreases this resolve to stand a$ainst hallen$es 'rom other states and to esalate rises

Misael | Flynn | Satveer | Sophie | Vikram | Javier | Calen | Gabe Pg 2.


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Summer 12 Pg !6

)onomi Collapse Cooperation

Economic collapse causes cooperation not con(ict diversionarytheory is false.Fravel&Pro* PoliSci M IT+ "1"

Taylor+ CT#e ,imits o* DiversionA Get#ining Internal an' External &on*lictC Security Stu'ies 1.2

T#e 'iversionary #ypot#esis o**ers one o* t#e most poer*ul alternatives to rationalist explanations o* ar "ase' on t#e state as a unitary actor Strongempirical support *or 'iversion oul' i'enti*y a more complete set o* causal mec#anisms un'erlying international con*lict T#e cases investigate' int#is article+ #oever+ raise 'ou"ts a"out t#e strengt# o* t#e 'iversionary #ypot#esis as ell as t#e empirical vali'ity o* arguments "ase' on 'iversionarymec#anisms+ suc# as ans*iel' an' Sny'ers t#eory a"out 'emocrati?ation an' ar12H In 9rgentina an' Turey+ t#e #ypot#esis *ails to pass to mostliely tests In neit#er case as 'omestic unrest a necessary con'ition *or t#e use o* *orce as proponents o* 'iversionary t#eory must 'emonstrate

9nstead& e,ternal se%rity hallen$es and bar$ainin$ over disp%ted territory better e,plain

+r$entine and /%rkish deision makin$ T#e #istorical recor'+ inclu'ing lea'ers#ip statements an' reasoning+ o**ers strongerevi'ence *or a stan'ar' realist mo'el an' t#e 'ynamics o* coercive 'iplomacy Draing 'e*initive conclusions a"out 'iversion *rom ust to cases is

impossi"le Nevert#eless+ t#e mo'i*ie' most liely researc# 'esign use' in t#is article eaens con*i'ence in t#e strengt# o* 'iversionary arguments

Diversion as a prinipal or primary so%re o' some on'lits may be m%h less 're3%ent than

sholars assert /hese t(o episodes sho%ld be amon$ the easiest ases 'or diversion to e,plainNot only 'i' em"attle' lea'ers escalate 'isputes intocrises an' t#en use *orce+ "ut sc#olars #ave also viee' t#ese cases as "eing "est explaine' "y

'iversionary mec#anisms 9' diversion annot ao%nt 'or these deisions& it is %nlear (hat the

hypothesis an in 'at e,plain y *in'ings #ave several implications *or t#e literature on 'iversionary ar t#eory 9t t#e most general

level o* analysis+ the lak o' s%pport 'or the diversion hypothesis in +r$entina and /%rkey

omplements those 3%antitative st%dies o' diversion that do not identi'y a systemati and

si$ni'iant relationship bet(een domesti politis and a$$ressive 'orei$n poliies + inclu'ing t#e use o*

*orce12L In a''ition+ the modi'ied most likely researh desi$n %sed in this artile raises 3%estions abo%t

those 3%antitative st%dies that do provide empirial s%pport 'or diversion bea%se it

demonstrates that despite the presene o' domesti %nrest& the %nderlyin$ a%sal mehanisms o'

diversion may not ao%nt 'or the deisions to %se'ore T#e lac o* support *or 'iversion raises a simple "ut importantuestionA #y is 'iversion less *reuent t#an commonly "elieve'+ 'espite its plausi"le intuition; 9lt#oug# *urt#er researc# is reuire'+ several *actors

s#oul' "e consi'ere' First+ the rally e''et that leaders en2oy 'rom an international risis is $enerally

brie' in d%ration and %nlikely to han$e permanently a p%bli


31/265


Summer 12 Pg !1

+/-Bo(er /ransitions

-ower transitions from decline don&t cause war.MaDonald&9sst Pro* o* PoliSci M :illiams &ollege and Barent&9sst Pro* PoliSci M U o* iami&

"11

Paul an' )osep#+ 8race*ul Decline;


32/265


Summer 12 Pg !2

+/-Diversionary Con'lit

0iversionary wars stay limited.6ennett and NordstromPro*essors o* PoliSci M Penn State+ """

Scott an' Timot#y+ 8Foreign Policy Su"stituta"ility an' Internal Economic Pro"lems in En'uringGivalries+< )ournal o* &on*lict Gesolution+ Fe"

:#en engaging in diversionary ationsin response to economic pro"lems+ leaders (ill be most interested in a

heap& 3%ik vitory that $ives them the beneWt o' a rally e''et (itho%t s%''erin$ the lon$-term

osts7in "ot# economic an' popularity terms= o' an e,tended on'rontation or (ar /his makes (eak states

parti%larly invitin$ tar$ets*or 'iversionary action since t#ey may "e less liely to respon' t#an strong states an' "ecause anyresponse t#ey mae ill "e less costly to t#e initiator

0iversionary studies are bogus)it&s only true in very limitedcircumstances.

+rena& University M %u**alo+ SUN0+ "1"P#illip+ :#y Not uns an' %utterA Gesponses to Economic Turmoil+ Foreign Policy 9nalysis+ 3H

9' (e are to %nderstand the relationship bet(een eonomi onditions and the %se o' 'ore& (e

need to better identi'y the de$ree to (hih the probability o' retainin$ o''ie depends %pon

eonomi onditions absent a disp%te& a'ter 'orei$n poliy s%ess& and a'ter 'orei$n poliy

'ail%re I* rea'ily o"serva"le *actors can #elp to separately 'etermine t#e relative importance o* economic con'itions in eac# o* t#ese cases+ sc#olars

can "etter isolate empirically t#ose cases #ere 'iversionary relations#ips are most liely to o"tain compare' to t#ose #ere t#ey are not Many

empirial st%dies o' diversion 'o%s e,l%sively on the 5nited States& (hih is 'ar more po(er'%l

than most any potential diversionary state I* t#e 'istri"ution o* material capa"ilities in*luences t#e pro"a"ility o* prevailing inan international con*lict+ as is typically assume'+ t#en t#e relations#ip "eteen economic con'itions an' t#e use o* *orce t#at typically o"tains in 'ya's

involving t#e Unite' States may systematically 'i**er *rom t#e relations#ip "eteen economic con'itions an' t#e use o* *orce in ot#er 'ya'sUn*ortunately+ it is not clear #ic# 'irection t#e relations#ip "eteen economic con'itions an' t#e use o* *orce is "eing pus#e' "y t#e a'vantageous'istri"ution o* capa"ilities enoye' "y t#e Unite' States I* e "elieve t#at t#e impact o* economic con'itions on t#e pro"a"ility o* retaining o**ice issu**iciently lo *olloing 'isputes t#at en' *avora"ly relative to t#e impact o* economic con'itions *olloing 'isputes t#at en' un*avora"ly+ t#en agreater pro"a"ility o* prevailing in an international 'ispute maes 'iversionary relations#ips more liely Boever+ t#ere #ave "een *e+ i* any+ stu'ieso* t#e 'egree to #ic# economic voting "ecomes more or less important *olloing an international 'ispute con'itional upon t#e outcome o* t#at 'isputeIt is t#ere*ore 'i**icult to no #et#er t#e impressive material capa"ilities o* t#e Unite' States mae 'iversionary arguments more liely to o"tain *or

t#e Unite' States +ll (e an say (ith any on'idene is that the di''erene in material apabilities

bet(een the 5nited States and most other advaned demoraies makes it %nlikely that the

relationship bet(een eonomi onditions and the %se o' 'ore is the same 'or the 5nited States

as it is 'or other demoraies 9not#er *actor t#at may explain t#e 'i**erences commonly *oun' "eteen stu'ies *ocusing on t#eUnite' States versus t#ose it# a cross-national sample+ suc# as ,ee's an' Davis 71..L=+ coul' "e 'i**erences in electoral systems I #ave onlyconsi'ere' to strategies availa"le to governments 9s ot#ers #ave o"serve' 7Smit# 2663R >ayser 2665=+ governments mig#t also respon' to economiccon'itions "y calling early elections Intro'ucing an option to call early elections into t#e mo'el mig#t prove *ruit*ul So too mig#t ot#er extensions o*t#e mo'el Intro'ucing uncertainty over t#e ,ea'ers illingness to initiate a 'ispute oul' allo *or t#e possi"ility t#at a governments macroeconomic

policies can reveal valua"le in*ormation a"out t#eir intentions in t#e international arena Sc#olars #o examine t#e lin "eteen economic con'itionsan' international con*lict mig#t t#ere*ore "ene*it *rom not only consi'ering t#e o"ective state o* t#e economy+ "ut also #et#er t#e governmentattempts to manipulate t#e economy @ne mig#t also consi'er t#e impact o* uncertainty over t#e impact o* economic re*orms+ or t#e relative sensitivity

o* t#e ,ea'ers pro"a"ility o* remaining in o**ice to t#e state o* t#e economy 9s I #ope to #ave 'emonstrate'+ ar$%ments relatin$ the

state o' the eonomy to the %se o' 'ore depend ritially %pon the ass%mptions (e make not

only abo%t the availability o' eonomi poliies& b%t also the impat o' s%h poliies /he

relationship bet(een the state o' the eonomy and the %se o' 'ore also depends %pon the

Misael | Flynn | Satveer | Sophie | Vikram | Javier | Calen | Gabe Pg !2


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Summer 12 Pg !!ass%mptions (e make abo%t ho( sensitive a leader


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Summer 12 Pg !3

+/-0orld 0ar 99

1orld war * doesn&t disprove our theories it was during anupswing and resulted from awkward resolution of 11!Goldstein ## - )os#ua S ol'stein+ Pro*essor o* International Gelations+ 9merican University+ 1.//+,ong &ycles+ pp 232-23!

0orld 0ar 99 is anomalo%s& omin$ at the be$innin$ rather than the end o' a lon$ (ave

%ps(in$1H 0orld 0ar 9 marks the end o' one %ps(in$+ an' 0orld 0ar 99 the be$innin$ o' the

ne,t& (ith a do(ns(in$o* eonomi sta$nation and red%ed (ar in bet(een /he timin$ o'

0orld 0ar 99at t#e start o* an upsing mi$ht be e,plainedin part by the %n%s%al irresol%tiont#at resulte' 'rom

0orl'0ar 9 /he osts o' that (ar (ere*ar a"ove any previous experience+ constituting a severe shok to the (orld

economic an' political system1L 0orld 0ar 9 ended in m%t%al e,ha%stion (itho%t resolvin$ the iss%e o'

he$emony7particularly since t#e rising poers+ Gussia an' 9merica+ it#'re into revolution an' isolationism a*ter t#at ar= =nly at the

o%tset o' the ne,t lon$ (ave %ps(in$7pro'uction #aving turne' upar' sometime aroun' 1.!!=+ o%ld he$emoni (ar

res%me T#e %ps(in$t#us be$an at a hi$h level o' (ar severity instead o' (ar b%ildin$ %p to a peaklate in the %ps(in$ as in previo%s lon$ (aves %ut once :orl' :ar II occurre'+ #o coul' t#e orl' economy sustain a

continue' upsing p#ase instea' o* "eing 'riven into a long 'onsing as in previous ar peas; Bere the ans(er may be the

e,pansion o' the ore o' the (orld eonomy 6yt#e time o* 0orl' 0ar 99+ the 5nite' States had beome the

(orldorea+ an' ietnamOgo toget#er on t#is upsing 7see c#apter 13= T#e upsing en'e' it# an unusually small ar+ ietnam 7alt#oug# it 'i' tae its toll on t#e orl'

economy=+ as it #a' "egun it# an unusually large one



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Summer 12 Pg !5

Deline 0on]+ Paul > acDonal' is 9ssistant Pro*essor o* Political Scienceat :ellesley &ollege+ )osep# ]]+ )osep# Parent is 9ssistant Pro*essor o* Political Science at t#eUniversity o* iami+ 8Decline an' Getrenc#mentOPeril or Promise;ing'om in 1.3H an' t#e

Soviet Union in 1./L 0et+ at t#e same time+ states o'ten mi, and math internal and e,ternal 'orms o'

retrenhment in interestin$ and inventive (ays Some states abandon overseas ommitments to

onentrate reso%res 'or a military b%ild%p at home T#e Unite' >ing'om in 1.6/ an' 1.!5 pursue' versions o* t#ispolicy @t#er states see to maintain t#eir *oreign policy commitments+ "ut court slig#tly more ris "y using *eer resources France in 1/L! an' t#eUnite' >ing'om in 1/L2 a'opte' t#is strategy2 Bayness recommen'ation to *ocus on external retrenc#ment alone oul' con*late t#e *irst an' secon'in's o* retrenc#ment #ile ignoring t#e t#ir' altoget#er T#us+ e see no nee' to mae our mo'el more parsimonious Baynes is rig#t to point out t#eco'ing 'i**iculties #en in'icators *or internal an' external retrenc#ment point in opposite 'irections For t#is reason+ e ma'e our accounting as clearas possi"le an' provi'e' a range o* co'ing c#oices *or controversial cases Even so+ Bayness concern s#oul' "e ept in perspectiveR t#e euivocal cases

#e re*ers to are rare =' o%r ei$hteen ases o' a%te relative deline& only 'o%r $reat po(ersOt#e Unite'

>ing'om in 1.6/ an' 1.!5+ ermany in 1.!1+ an' Gussia in 1.6!Ohad an ann%al avera$e inrease in military



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Summer 12 Pg !Hpersonnel in the 'ive years 'ollo(in$ their ordinal transition that (as hi$her than the baseline

'or other $reat po(ers 0ith or (itho%t these e,eptions& o%r 'indin$s still hold:#ereas Baynes mainlyengage' our t#eoretical assumptions+ T#ompson *ocuses on our 'ata First+ #e uestions t#e relia"ility o* our measure o* acute relative 'ecline+ in

particular+ our use o* gross 'omestic pro'uct 7DP= to i'enti*y moments o* or'inal JEn' Page 1..K transition T#ompson correctly states t#at DPmeasures Ct#e si?e o* an economy "ut not its ualityC an' t#at Csystemic lea'ers#ip is not pre'icate' on t#e s#eer si?e o* t#e economyC :e concur an'go even *urt#er "y 'etailing ot#er limits to DP as a proxy measure *or relative poer 7pp 22-23= 9t t#e same time+ e 'o not see #o t#ese points

un'ercut our claim t#at a%te relative eonomi deline ind%es $reat po(ers to reeval%ate their 'orei$npoliy Great po(ers %ndo%btedly onsider a (hole host o' eonomi 'ators (hen assessin$

their relative po(er& inl%din$ the 3%ality o' their eonomy& their tehnolo$y base& and their

apaity 'or innovation et most o' these 'ators are stron$ly orrelated (ith GDBIn unusual cases+

$reat po(ers (ith e,tremely developed eonomies or %ni3%ely advaned tehnolo$ial bases

may be able to %shion the impat o' a sharp deline in GDB+ "ut t#ey are unliely to "e a"le to 'o so *or long Noris it clear t#at alternative measures+ suc# as DP per capita+ o**er a more attractive proxy *or relative poer! To "e sure+ great poers it# #ig# DP

per capita may "e a"le to extract more surplus ealt# to invest in geopolit ical competition+ "ut as *ar as e no+ t#is #as yet to "e esta"lis#e' T#ereverse may also "e trueR states it# a #ig# DP per capita may "e more "ur'ene' "y 'omestic o"ligations to t#eir prosperous 7an' 'eman'ing=citi?ens Furt#ermore+ an assessment o* relative poer "ase' on or'inal s#i*ts in DP per capita oul' su**er *rom a num"er o* limitations It oul'miss t#e eclipse o* t#e Unite' >ing'om "y Imperial ermany prior to :orl' :ar I3 It oul' also *ail to capture t#e "urgeoning mig#t o* t#e SovietUnion early in t#e &ol' :ar+ as ell as t#e Soviets rapi' an' sustaine' collapse toar' t#e en' o* it5 Similar pro"lems "e'evil ualitative assessmentso* Csystemic lea'ers#ipC :e #ave no 'ou"t t#at a great poer oul' "e un'er extreme pressure to a'ust its gran' strategy i* its systemic lea'ers#ip

ere un'er *ire %ut #o 'o e 'e*ine an' operationali?e lea'ers#ip; %y our measure+ t#e Unite' States surpasse' t#e Unite' >ing'om in 1/L2 to"ecome t#e orl's most 'ominant economy 9t is pla%sible to ar$%e that the 5nited States& despite havin$ the

(orld7s lar$est eonomy& (as not yet the 8systemi leader8 %ut #en 'i' it "ecome soO1/./+ 1.1/+ 1.35+ 1./.;T#e cost o* using our strict 'e*inition o* acute relative 'ecline is t#at some marginal "ut ell-non cases are omitte'OItaly an' 9ustria-Bungary+ *orexample+ *ail to "rea our t#res#ol' o* a 16 percent s#are o* total great poer DP T#e timings e 'erive *or speci*ic transitions may also 'iverge *romt#e conventional is'omO%ritain *eare' ermanys geopolitical rise ell "e*ore t#e erman economy overtoo it in 1.6/ Nonet#eless+ our approac##as t#e "ene*it o* generating an intuitively plausi"le set o* cases t#roug# a stan'ar' metric t#at is t#eory 'riven an' veri*ia"le across more t#an acentury Secon'+ T#ompson taes issue it# our grouping all eig#teen cases o* acute relative JEn' Page 266K 'ecline toget#er in t#e same analysis T#e

Cultimate pro"lem+C #e asserts+ Cis t#at great poer relative 'ecline lea's to transitions o* 'i**erent in'sC /ransitions an vary

dependin$ on states7 eonomi systems& the historial period& and the involvement o' a

he$emonNo one 'isputes t#at t#ese *actors a**ect a great poers reaction to acute relative 'ecline+ "ut t#eory "uil'ing is a"out causal priorityNeorealist t#eory an' t#e 'ata 'o not support t#e assertion t#at any o* t#ese *actors is nearly as important as relative poer+ an' any t#eory t#at assume'ot#erise oul' explain less it# more *actors &onsi'er t#e t#ree categories o* poer transitions t#at T#ompson 'escri"es in #is letter @* our eig#teen

cases o* acute relative 'ecline+ eig#t are type I transitions involving a tra'ing state an' a lan' poerR one is a type II transition involving to maritimepoersR an' nine are type III transitions involving to lan' poers +ordin$ to o%r more onservative odin$ o'

retrenhment& si, o' the ei$ht type 9 transitions and seven o' the nine type 999 transitions

'eat%re a strate$y o' retrenhment by the delinin$ po(er T#e only example o* a type II transition among our cases+t#e Unite' >ing'om in 1/L2+ is co'e' as lo to no retrenc#mentH 9s a #ole+ retrenc#ment 'oes not appear to "e any more or less common in onecategory o* 'ya' t#an anot#er Nor 'o certain types o* 'ya' appear more con*lict prone To o* t#e eig#t great poers involve' in type I transitions+ an'to o* t#e nine great poers involve' in type III transitions+ "ecame em"roile' in interstate ars T#e Unite' >ing'om in 1.!5+ an example o* a type Itransition+ as t#e only great poer in our sample t#at *oug#t its or'inal c#allenger T#ompsons #ypot#esis t#at type III transitions "eteen rival lan'

poers are especially con*lict prone may "e correct+ yet e 'o not o"serve an example o* t#is in our eig#teen cases Surely t#ere are many examples o*rival lan' poers coming to "los+ "ut t#e 'ata suggest t#at suc# ars are not strongly associate' it# perio's o* acute relative 'ecline or a policy o*retrenc#ment T#ompson lieise a'vances t#e reasona"le #ypot#esis t#at ne #istorical 'evelopments+ suc# as t#e a'vent o* nuclear eapons orEuropean integration+ may c#ange t#e context in #ic# great poers a'ust t#eir gran' strategies %ut t#en T#ompson is putting a s#arper point on ourargument t#an e 'o I* nuclear eapons "esto a 'e*ensive a'vantage an' Europe is paci*ie'+ t#en great poers oul' "e in a sa*er position toretrenc# Finally+ #ere T#ompson "elieves t#at #egemonic transitions are 'i**erent in in' *rom ot#er transitions+ e "elieve t#e 'i**erence is in 'egree

9s e note in our article+ t#ere are soun' reasons to assume t#at #egemonic poers s#oul' manage acute relative 'ecline muc# lieOi* not "etter t#anOt#eir less poer*ul counterparts 7pp 31-32= reat poers t#at *all in t#e rans *rom num"er one to num"er to ill continue to possess si?a"le "aseso* military an' economic capa"ilities t#at a**or' t#em consi'era"le security *rom external t#reats oreover+ t#eir relative poer s#oul' provi'e t#emopportunities to attract ne allies an' 'eter am"itious enemies+ all #ile s#e''ing inessential external commitments In contrast+ a great poer t#at *allsin t#e rans *rom num"er t#ree to num"er *our is more liely to lac capa"ilities+ "e closer to "anruptcy+ JEn' Page 261K #ave run out o* options+ an'

"e in 'anger o* 'ecisive 'e*eat T#e 'ata+ a'mitte'ly exiguous "ut t#e "est availa"le+ "ear t#is supposition out T#e only #egemonic transition since1/L6+ t#e Unite' States passing t#e Unite' >ing'om in 1/L2+ as not calamitous or 'issimilar to ot#er great poers *acing 'eclines o* similar 'ept#T#e most ar-prone or'inal transition among our cases+ ermany overtaing t#e Unite' >ing'om in 1.!5+ consiste' o* to great poers competing *ort#ir' place T#e o"vious impetus *or examining 'ecline an' retrenc#ment is to o**er provisional gui'ance *or contemporary policymaers %ot# Baynesan' T#ompson+ t#oug#+ are septical o* our *in'ings relevance *or current events Baynes orries t#at in our e**ort to 'iscre'it retrenc#ment pessimists+e Cun'erstate t#e potential costs o* suc# a strategyC Even i* retrenc#ment 'oes not court geopolitical catastrop#e+ Baynes arns t#at retrenc#ing great

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Summer 12 Pg !Lpoers may still "e *orce' to conce'e on vital issues an' run consi'era"le riss ,et us "e a"solutely clearA retrenhment is risky& b%t

not retrenhin$ is riskier Eivin$ beyond one7s means is possible temporarily& b%t prolon$ed

insolveny invites a terrible rekonin$ Graspin$ $reat po(ers present a brittle& overe,tended

de'ensive perimeter (ith strate$i in'le,ibility and shallo( reserves>a blatantly ripe tar$et 'or

opport%nisti states /his is likely (hy so 'e( delinin$ states in o%r st%dy hose not to retrenh&

and those that 'ailed to 'ared poorly It is un'erstan'a"le t#at 'eclining poers retrenc# reluctantlyR it is all t#e more telling t#att#ey ten' to 'o so uicly Pus#e' a "it *urt#er+ t#oug#+ Bayness critiue opens promising avenues o* inuiry on t#e riss o* retrenc#ment %y con*iningour analysis to t#e potential 'angers a great poer mig#t *ace to its on security+ e neglect #o retrenc#ment mig#t en'anger regional partners orne*oun' allies+ #ic# no con*ront increase' sel*-#elp incentives Getrenc#ment may not "e 'evastating to 'eclining great poers+ "ut it coul' #ave

pernicious noc-on e**ects *or regional sta"ility or glo"al tra'eL @ur or 'i' not illuminate t#is issue ell+ an' t#e matter merits greater attentionT#ompson+ *or #is part+ o"ects t#at t#e impen'ing US-ina transition ill not necessarily con*orm to t#e patterns o* t#e past+ t#at to 'erive lessons*rom a sample o* all great poers is to su**er *rom an Cecological *allacy+C an' t#at CJKe are simply in no t#eoretical or empirical position to maeC'e*initive pre'ictions+ C"ut e can say t#at US success in *uture orl' politics ill reuire more t#an tactical retrenc#mentC :e agreeOit# somecaveats %y no means 'i' e inten' *or our conclusions to "e taen as 'e*initive+ an' t#e *uture 'oes not alays resem"le t#e past 0et T#ompsonsmo'esty goes too *ar Bistory an' t#e tools o* social science are not irrelevant to political pre'ictionOt#ey are t#e "est availa"le gui'es *or

policymaers to prepare *or t#e *uture @ur critics propose a num"er o* re*inements to our mo'el+ "ut t#ey 'o not replace it or impair our met#o's an'evi'ence 9s 'ecisionmaers revamp t#e US *orce posture+ propose personnel cuts+ an' 'ra 'on *oreign entanglements+ t#ey nee' to no #ic#causal *actors are primary an' #ic# are secon'ary to pre'ict t#e liely e**ects o* potential actions @ur arguments JEn' Page 262K an' 'ata #ave lai' a*oun'ation to 'o t#is+ an' e elcome su"seuent improvements Gegar'less+ e agree it# T#ompson t#at inese 'ominance is not *oreor'aine'Rretrenc#ment alone is no panaceaR an' 'omestic re*orms are an in'ispensa"le part o* great poer recovery T#ese points are so conseuential t#at e

'iscuss t#em at lengt# else#ere/ In sum+ Baynes an' T#ompson #ave constructive concerns a"out our or on retrenc#ment+ "ut t#ere appears to "e astriing amount o* consensus Getrenc#ment is typical an' sensi"le in response to acute relative 'ecline+ an' relative poer plays a primary role in #o

states respon' to it Nevert#eless+ our contri"ution is merely a *irst cut+ an' t#ere remains muc# or to "e 'one /he (orld (o%ld be a

sa'er plae i' (e kne( m%h more abo%t retrenhment+ "ut it ill tae many more t#an t#e aut#ors in t#is exc#ange tocomplete t#e tas

Misael | Flynn | Satveer | Sophie | Vikram |

dedevelopment and keynes core utnif 2012

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