decision tree analysis example-question & answers

7/26/2019 Decision Tree Analysis Example-question & Answers

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.

5 0.2(62) + 0.8(50) 27.6 6 0.85(47) + 0.15(50) 32.45

2 115 (32.45).

7 0.15(44) + 0.85(14) 5.3 8 0.80(39) + 0.20(14) 28.4 9 0.95(34) + 0.05(14) 31.6

3 60 (31.6).

10 0.05(111) + 0.95(55) 46.7 11 0.65(61) + 0.35(55) 20.4

4 140 (20.4).

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1 32.45 2 31.6 1 2 20.4

1 ( 115) 32.45 ('000).

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1 ( ) ( '000000).

, , ( ), ( 1) ( 0),

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2 () 11, ( ), ( 1) ( 10),

1 () 12, ( ), ( 1) , () 1, ( 0. + 0.2),

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, ( 4) , 5 () 22, ( 0.75 + 0.25),

, , 1 ()

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7 1521 .

0.0075(25) + 0.0004(245) + 0.00175(145) + 0.99035(5) = 4.4125

5 (=1).

6 0.03(25) + 0.02(245) + 0.01(145) + 0.94(5) = 2.4

4 (=2.4).

3 0.5(2.4) + 0.5(1) = 0.7

2 0.01(26) + 0.0005(246) + 0.002(146) + 0.9875(4) = 3.275

1 :

=0 =3.275 3 =0.7

3 0.7 ().

50:50 . .

. 10,000. 50%

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127,000. , 155,000, 170,000 190,000. ( ) 0.90, 0.75 0.35 .

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10 + 5 + 127 170 28

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12 , 170

10 + 5 15

13 , 190

10 + 5 + 127 190 48

14 , 190

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15 ( )

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4 9 10 . 0.90(13) + 0.10(15) 10.2

5 0.75(28) + 0.25(15) 17.25

6 0.35(48) + 0.65(15) 7.05

(1) 155 10.2

(2) 170 17.25

(3) 190 7.05

(4) 15

170 17.25

2 0.50(17.25) + 0.50(10) 3.625

(1) 3.625

(2) 0

8 19

2012/03/12://...////.


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3625. ( ) 170,000.

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20,000 .

0.03 . 10%, 20%, 40% 0.5, 0.35 0.15 .

150 .

100 . 75 (%) .

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. 50 40%

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1 ( ) .

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9 .

= 0

10 10% .

= 0.1(20000) = 2000 = 2000

11 12 = 4000 8000 .

13 150 .

= 150 = 150

14 150 0.1(20000) = 2000 .

= 2000 = 2000 + 150 = 150

.

15 16 .

.

.

5 10, 11 12 . 0.5(2000) + 0.35(4000) + 0.15(8000) = 3600

1 0.97(0) + 0.03(3600) = 108

2 150.

3 0.97(100) + 0.030.5(100) + 0.35(100) + 0.15(100)

= 97 + 0.03(100) = 100 0.03 (


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= 0.97(75) + 0.0375(1/100)(3600) = 75 + 1.08 108 = 183 + 1.08

= 139.8 = 40

1. = 1082. A = 1503. B = 101.5

4. = 139.8

B 101.5

.. . ..

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..

..

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= 2000 B 1000.03(2000) = 160 ( 1 = 108).


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1 ( ) .

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.

2 ( 10, 11 12 ). () 0.1 (7) + 0.3 (10) + 0.6 (15) = 12.7

1 0.25 (0) + 0.75 (12.7) = 9.525

7 0.1 (7) + 0.3 (7) + 0.6 (7) = 7

3 0.25 (7) + 0.75 (7) = 7

8 0.1 (13) + 0.3 (13) + 0.6 (13) = 13 6 0.1 (10) + 0.3 (13) + 0.6 (18) = 15.7

5 :

(4) = 13

(5) = 15.7

( 4) 13.

4 0.25 (3) + 0.75 (13) = 10.5

( 0) :

(1) = 9.525

(2) = 7

(3) = 10.5

2, 7, 7.

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, . , . , , ( ) .

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.

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1 ( 12 13 ). () 0.3 (50) + 0.7 (52) 21.4

2, 0.85 (40) + 0.15 (52) 26.2

1

(5) 120 21.4

(6) 110 26.2

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3 0.10 (32) + 0.9 (26) 20.2

4 0.60 (27) + 0.40 (26) 5.8

5 0.90 (22) + 0.10 (26) 17.2

2

(7) 70 20.2

(8) 65 5.8

(9) 60 17.2

, , 9 .

6 0.05 (109) + 0.95 (53) 44.9

7 0.65 (59) + 0.35 (53) 19.8

8 0.95 (19) + 0.05 (53) 15.4

1 2

(10) 190 44.9

18 19

2012/03/12//...////.


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(11) 140 1.8

(12) 100 15.4

, , 11 .

(1) 1 26.2

(2) 2 17.2

(3) 1 2 1.8

(4) 0

, , 1 .

1 , 110 26.2.

14 15 ( ) .. 40, 52. 52( ).

1 1

decision tree analysis example-question & answers

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