decision support systems (dss) dr. merle p. martin mis department csu sacramento
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Decision Support Decision Support Systems (DSS) Systems (DSS)
Dr. Merle P. MartinDr. Merle P. MartinMIS DepartmentMIS DepartmentCSU SacramentoCSU Sacramento
AgendaAgenda Ski Resort PlanningSki Resort Planning What is a DSS?What is a DSS? Unstructured ProblemsUnstructured Problems DSS ComponentsDSS Components DSS ExamplesDSS Examples Group DSSGroup DSS
Ski Area PlanningSki Area Planning Ski area designs require Ski area designs require
same inputsame input same decision modelsame decision model
Each resort offers :Each resort offers : different types of trailsdifferent types of trails to different skill levelsto different skill levels
Long-range objective: maximize Long-range objective: maximize profits for given terrain & market mixprofits for given terrain & market mix
Ski Area PlanningSki Area Planning Optimum design Optimum design
concentrates on balancing concentrates on balancing downhill / uphill capacitiesdownhill / uphill capacities
System of trails cannot easily System of trails cannot easily be changed once carvedbe changed once carved
Summer activities complicate designSummer activities complicate design Industry is capital intensiveIndustry is capital intensive
Ski Resort PlanningSki Resort PlanningPrimary ObjectivePrimary Objective
=Downhill Capacity(Trails)
Uphill Capacity(Lifts)
Market DemandProduction Capacity
Ski Area PlanningSki Area PlanningTerrain Capacity Analysis:Terrain Capacity Analysis: Examine physical Examine physical
attributes of mountainattributes of mountain Create initial set of trailsCreate initial set of trails Determine mountain's downhill Determine mountain's downhill
capacity (i.e., trail system)capacity (i.e., trail system)
Ski Area PlanningSki Area PlanningTerrain Capacity Analysis:Terrain Capacity Analysis: Examine physical Examine physical
attributes of the mountainattributes of the mountain Create initial set of trailsCreate initial set of trails Determine mountain's downhill Determine mountain's downhill
capacity (i.e., trail system)capacity (i.e., trail system)Market Analysis:Market Analysis: Match trail system to market mix Match trail system to market mix
Topography Map (Terrain)Topography Map (Terrain)
Steep slopeSteep slope
Gentle Gentle slopeslope
Expert and Expert and advanced advanced trailstrails
Expert and Expert and advanced advanced trailstrails
Novice & Novice & beginner beginner trailtrail
Novice & Novice & beginner beginner trailtrail
LiftsLifts
Physical DesignPhysical Design
Physical terrain Physical terrain and constraintsand constraints Slope of mountain sidesSlope of mountain sides Physical obstacles Physical obstacles
(e.g., cliffs, boulders, creeks, etc.)(e.g., cliffs, boulders, creeks, etc.) Aesthetics (i.e., forest scenery)Aesthetics (i.e., forest scenery)
Designer selects initial layoutDesigner selects initial layout Initial set of trailsInitial set of trails
Downhill capacity of skiers Downhill capacity of skiers calculatedcalculated Number of skiers per acre Number of skiers per acre
(judgmental)(judgmental) Type of skier (i.e., skill level)Type of skier (i.e., skill level) Regional densityRegional density
Physical DesignPhysical Design
Market AnalysisMarket Analysis Objective: match trail Objective: match trail
system to market demandssystem to market demands Seven skier skill levels:Seven skier skill levels:
BeginnerBeginner NoviceNovice Low intermediate Low intermediate IntermediateIntermediate High intermediateHigh intermediate AdvanceAdvance ExpertExpert
Market Mix: Market Mix: Percentage from Percentage from each category each category
Decision Support SystemDecision Support System Calculates trail capacityCalculates trail capacity
Matches skill levels to Matches skill levels to trail via slope gradestrail via slope grades
Takes into account skier Takes into account skier density per acre by skill leveldensity per acre by skill level
Calculates market mix Calculates market mix of skier skill levelsof skier skill levels Provides expected numbers from Provides expected numbers from
a given market mix distributiona given market mix distribution
Balances trail system Balances trail system to market mixto market mix Changes input parameters:Changes input parameters:
Trail attributesTrail attributes Density levelsDensity levels Market mix distributionMarket mix distribution
Examines uphill capacityExamines uphill capacity
Decision Support SystemDecision Support System
Skill LevelRoute
IDVertical Length Length Width
Low/Top% Grade
Acres/Skiers
Novice 1.01 500 3000 100 8/25 6.9/275
Low Intermediate
2.01 500 2800 150 15/30 9.6/289
Intermediate 9.03 800 3600 150 20/40 12.4/248
High Intermediate
10.03 1000 4200 150 20/45 14.5/217
Advance 12.03 1000 4300 150 20/60 14.8/148
Expert 11.03 1000 4000 150 60/22 13.8/138
Terrain Capacity AnalysisTerrain Capacity AnalysisSlope InventorySlope Inventory
Market Display:Market Display:Design for 3837 SkiersDesign for 3837 SkiersSkill Level Goal Goal CurrentBeginner .05 192 224Novice .10 384 1166Low Intermediate .20 767 1418Intermediate .30 1151 478High Intermediate .20 767 217Advance .10 384 164Expert .05 192 170
Number of Skiers
Market percent estimated Market percent estimated by the planner by the planner
Computed by Computed by the DSSthe DSS
Skill BalanceSkill Balance
Skill Level Acres Skiers DensityBeginner 4.5 100 22.3Novice 29.2 200 6.9Low Intermediate 47.3 400 8.5Intermediate 23.9 600 25.1High Intermediate 14.5 400 27.7Advance 16.4 200 12.2Expert 17.0 100 5.9Sum 152.7 2000 13.1
What is a DSS?What is a DSS?Sprague / Carlson:Sprague / Carlson:““Computer-based system thatComputer-based system thathelps the helps the decision makerdecision makerconfront confront ill-structured problemsill-structured problemsthrough through direct interactiondirect interaction with withdata and analysis data and analysis models.models.””
DSS PhilosophyDSS Philosophy Aid decision makerAid decision maker
not replace (not replace (ESES)) Decision maker remains in Decision maker remains in
controlcontrol Not always best decisionNot always best decision Change / flexibilityChange / flexibility Quick responseQuick response
DSS CharacteristicsDSS Characteristics Large amounts of dataLarge amounts of data Different data sourcesDifferent data sources Tailored to decision maker:Tailored to decision maker:
judgmentjudgment knowledgeknowledge intuitionintuition stylestyle personal traitspersonal traits
DSS CharacteristicsDSS Characteristics Graphically orientedGraphically oriented Optimize / heuristicsOptimize / heuristics ““What if”(What if”(sensitivitysensitivity) analysis) analysis Goal-seeking analysisGoal-seeking analysis Unstructured problemsUnstructured problems
Major Components of a DSSMajor Components of a DSS
Decision Decision MakerMaker
ModelsModels• FinancialFinancial• Statistical Statistical
analysis analysis • GraphicalGraphical• Project Project
mgmtmgmt
DSSDSSSoftwareSoftware
DSSDSSSoftwareSoftware
GraphicalGraphicalInterfaceInterfaceGraphicalGraphicalInterfaceInterface
Model Model BaseBase
Model Model BaseBase
Data BaseData BaseData BaseData Base
Model BaseModel Base FinancialFinancial Statistical AnalysisStatistical Analysis GraphicalGraphical Project ManagementProject Management Management ScienceManagement Science
Operations researchOperations research
Financial ModelsFinancial Models Cash FlowCash Flow
e.g., discounted paybacke.g., discounted payback Internal ROIInternal ROI Portfolio AnalysisPortfolio Analysis
stock marketstock market advertisingadvertising
SpreadsheetsSpreadsheets
Statistical AnalysisStatistical Analysis Descriptive (Descriptive (summarysummary)) Trend projectionTrend projection Hypothesis testingHypothesis testing Regression analysisRegression analysis
Management ScienceManagement Science InventoryInventory Queuing (Queuing (LineLine)) NetworkNetwork SearchSearch
DSS ExamplesDSS Examples American AirlinesAmerican Airlines
Price / rate selectionPrice / rate selection Frito-LayFrito-Lay
Advertising / promotion Advertising / promotion selectionselection
Juniper LumberJuniper Lumber Production schedulingProduction scheduling
DSS Examples DSS Examples KmartKmart
Price evaluationPrice evaluation Southern RailwaySouthern Railway
Train dispatching Train dispatching and forecastingand forecasting
Texas Oil & GasTexas Oil & Gas Potential drilling sitesPotential drilling sites
IssueIssueDoes your firm use DSS?Does your firm use DSS?
How?How? How could your firm use How could your firm use
a DSS? a DSS? What problems do you What problems do you
see with DSS?see with DSS?
Group Decision Group Decision Support System Support System ((GDSSGDSS))
interactive interactive computer-based computer-based system facilitating solution of system facilitating solution of unstructured problemsunstructured problems by a set by a set of decision makers working of decision makers working together as a together as a group.group.
GroupwareGroupwareGroupwareGroupware
DatabaseDatabaseDatabaseDatabase
GDSS ComponentsGDSS Components
Model BaseModel BaseModel BaseModel BaseGDSSGDSS
ProcessorProcessorGDSSGDSS
ProcessorProcessor
UserUserUserUser
DialogueDialogueManagerManagerDialogueDialogueManagerManager
GroupwareGroupware Brainstorming toolsBrainstorming tools Idea organizationIdea organization Prioritization / votingPrioritization / voting Electronic questionnairesElectronic questionnaires
pre-meetingpre-meeting Group DictionaryGroup Dictionary Stakeholder identificationStakeholder identification
GDSS LayoutGDSS Layout
WorkstationsWorkstations
Facilitator Facilitator Console & Console & Network Network ServerServer
ProjectorProjector
Projection ScreenProjection Screen
GDSS BenefitsGDSS Benefits Efficiency of group meetingsEfficiency of group meetings Quality of decisions reachedQuality of decisions reached
alternatives examinedalternatives examined participation / contributionparticipation / contribution
those who would those who would otherwise be silentotherwise be silent
decision outcomesdecision outcomes Leverage (way meetings run)Leverage (way meetings run)
e.g., human parallel processinge.g., human parallel processing
Factors Affecting Factors Affecting GDSS Outcomes GDSS Outcomes AnonymityAnonymity
provides sense of equalityprovides sense of equality encourages participation by allencourages participation by all reduces:reduces:
problems with “problems with “group thinkgroup think”” dominance by strong personalitiesdominance by strong personalities
heightens conflict / impolitenessheightens conflict / impoliteness
GDSS FactorsGDSS Factors Facility DesignFacility Design
lighting and layoutlighting and layout Multiple public screensMultiple public screens Knowledge bases / databasesKnowledge bases / databases Network speedNetwork speed
GDSS FactorsGDSS Factors Fixed versus customized toolsFixed versus customized tools Software designSoftware design
ease of useease of use Group size / compositionGroup size / composition
individual satisfaction individual satisfaction increases with group sizeincreases with group size
SatisfactionSatisfaction participants not blocked out of groupparticipants not blocked out of group
Groupware MatrixGroupware Matrix
same timesame timesame timesame time
Face-to-Face Face-to-Face MeetingsMeetings
(electronic (electronic copyboards)copyboards)
Face-to-Face Face-to-Face MeetingsMeetings
(electronic (electronic copyboards)copyboards)
Teams in Teams in PlacePlace
(team room (team room tools)tools)
Teams in Teams in PlacePlace
(team room (team room tools)tools)
Cross-Distance Cross-Distance MeetingsMeetings
(audio/video (audio/video conferencing)conferencing)
Cross-Distance Cross-Distance MeetingsMeetings
(audio/video (audio/video conferencing)conferencing)
same same placeplacesame same placeplace
different different placesplaces
different different placesplaces
OngoingOngoingCoordinationCoordination(voice mail, (voice mail,
e-mail)e-mail)
OngoingOngoingCoordinationCoordination(voice mail, (voice mail,
e-mail)e-mail)
different timesdifferent timesdifferent timesdifferent times
IssueIssue GDSS is based on the GDSS is based on the
assumption that anonymity assumption that anonymity is desired. How important is desired. How important is anonymity in groups?is anonymity in groups? at work?at work? in class?in class? in distance-learning?in distance-learning?
WHAT DO YOU THINK?WHAT DO YOU THINK?
Points to RememberPoints to Remember What is a DSS?What is a DSS? DSS ComponentsDSS Components DSS ExamplesDSS Examples Group DSSGroup DSS