decision support and ai (22)

8/2/2019 Decision Support and AI (22)

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DSS: Decision Support Systems

and

AI: Artificial Intelligence

In Business



AI in Business

Some Commercial Applications• Decision Support

• Expert Systems

• Information Retrieval• Virtual Reality

• Robotics

I’m ready to

do some

business



Overview of AI

• Goal of AI– develop computer systems that exhibit

intelligence or simulate the ability to think

• AI pioneered by Computer Science

• But, AI involves a combination of

– Computer Science, Biology, Psychology,

Linguistics, Mathematics,Engineering



What really is Intelligence?

• Specifically, what are thesigns of Intelligent

Behavior?

• Think about it for a while



Which of the following is the best

example of intelligent behavior?

101 2 3 4

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1. Ability to add numbers2. Ability to see and

recognize objects

3. Ability to adapt tosurroundings

4. Ability to learn for

mistakes



What really is Intelligence?

• You are about to start anonline chat (IM) with twoentities:

– One entity is a human

– The other is a computer• After hours of conversation,

you can not tell whichentity is a computer.

• Does this mean thecomputer is Intelligent?



Characteristics of

Intelligent Behavior

1. Learn from experience & applythe knowledge

Computer can automatically improve

performance based on Experience Machine Learning

Computational Learning



Characteristics of


2. Handle complex situations Computer Systems can often handle

complexity better than humans

Consider a process control systemthat must simultaneous track 100

different system variables.



Characteristics of


3. Solve problems when importantinformation is missing

Computer Systems can find patterns

and deal with all sorts of missinginformation



Characteristics of


4. React quickly & correctly to newsituations; Acquire & Apply

Knowledge

Here is where computers start to fail. Adapting to completely new situations is

a problem for computer systems.

Its very difficult to design a computer

system that can combine, connect, and

acquire knowledge to solve completely

new problems



Characteristics of


5. Determine what is important.6. Exhibit creativity and imagination

7. Process visual information efficiently

8. Use reason to solve problems

These are some other Characteristics thathumans possess.

Computer systems have a lot of catching up

to do.



AI in Business

• AI continues to improve and evolve.• Scientists and Engineers are pushing the

envelope of what is possible.

• In Business, there is a better

understanding of the capabilities of Intelligent Computer Systems

• It is important to know which types of problems are suited for humans, and

which are suited for Computers.



Human Intelligence vs. AI

Attribute Human

Intelligence

Artificial

Intelligence

Use a variety of informationsources

High High

Ability to acquire large amounts

of external info.

Medium High

Ability to do rapid, accurate,and complex calculations

Low High

Ability to transfer information

rapidly

Low High



Human Intelligence vs. AI

Attribute Human

Intelligence

Artificial

Intelligence

Ability to use sensors or senses High Medium

Creativity or imagination High Low

Ability to learn from experience High Medium

Ability of be adaptive High Medium



AI: Application Domains



AI: Commercial Domains

• Decision Support– Integrating the advantages of AI with

Human Intelligence.

– More intelligent Interfaces– More intelligent processing for

massive data

http://www.sas.com/software/sas9/index.html?sgc=u




• Information Retrieval– Automatic simplification for massive

data

– Natural language technology:computer can speak our language.

http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&hs=6PF&safe=off&client=firefox-a&rls=org.mozilla:en-US:official_s&q=Is+the+star+of+napoleon+dynamite+dead&spell=1




• Virtual Reality

– Better training environment from pilots to

doctors

• Robotics

– Bringing the precision and speed of computers into the physical world

– Goes beyond manufacturing and assembly

lines; Baggage Inspection, Bomb Removal,

Replacement Limbs.



Expert Systems

• The idea is to inject expert knowledgein to a computer system.

• The primary purpose is to automate

decision making.

• The decision environments have

structure

• The alternatives and goals are often

established in advance.



Expert Systems vs. DSS

Expert System• Inject expert knowledge in

to a computer system.

• Automate decision making.

• The decision environmentshave structure

• The alternatives and goals

are often established in

advance.• The expert system can

eventually replace the

human decision maker.

Decision Support System• Extract or gain knowledge

from a computer system

• Facilitates decision making

• Unstructured environment• Alternatives may not be

fully realized yet

• Use goals and the system

data to establishalternatives and outcomes,

so a good decision can be

made



What is the biggest difference between a

Decision Support System and an MIS

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1. DSS’s are interactive andad hoc

2. DSS’s focus on

transforming informationinto knowledge

3. MIS’s focus on

transforming data intoinformation

4. All of the above



What is the biggest difference between

an MIS and TPS

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1. in a TPS there is noanalysis

2. an MIS focuses on

reports3. an TPS focuses on

updating a database

4. All of the above



How is the analysis different for a MIS vs.

DSS

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1. MIS: Analysis involvescomputing aggregates

2. MIS: Analysis involves

creating useful chartsand graphs

3. DSS: Connects

information withdecisions

4. DSS: Builds scenarios

Some Interesting Applications



Some Interesting Applications

of Expert Systems

• Triage – Medical Diagnosis (Medical Expert System)– User enters symptoms

– System makes diagnosis

– Doctors collective expertise is captured in the system

• Patriot Missile Guidance System

– Radar identifies Scud missile

– System steers Patriot missile to it intercepts Scud

missile

– Laws of physics, expert knowledge about missile

trajectory is captured in the system

• Financial Decision Making – Currency Trading



Expert System Categories

• Decision Making– buy/sell

– risk/no risk

– rain/ no rain

• Trouble Shooting /Diagnosis

– Hello welcome to Dell;

how can I help you?

– Suddenly an idiot seems

like an expert.

• Selection/Classification– Tell me what you see,expert system figures outwhat it really is...

• Process Monitoring andControl– Robot control, assembly-

line control, missilecontrol

• Design/Configuration– Specify what you want,

expert system figures outspecifically how to do it.



Expert System Components

Knowledge

baseuser

Expert System Software

User

Interface

Engine




Knowledge

baseuser


User

Interface

Engine

Raw Data or

FactsExpert or

Knowledge

Engineer

Knowledge

Acquisition

Program

Expert System Development Process




Knowledge

base

Non-expert

Robot

Missile


Interface Engine

Raw Data or

FactsExpert or

Knowledge

Engineer

Knowledge

Acquisition

Program

Expert System Development Process



Expert System vs. DSS

Model Base

Analytical &

Statistical

Models

Someonewith

Knowledge

Decision

Maker

DSS Software

User

Interface

Engine

Raw Data or

Facts

Data Management

Extraction, Generation,

Validation, etc.

DSS Processes

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