decision making under uncertainty in the energy sector · roelich, k. giesekam, j (2019) decision...
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MAADMMulti Actor Adaptive Decision Making
Decision making under uncertainty in the energysector
Dr Katy RoelichAssociate ProfessorSustainability Research InstituteSchool of Earth and Environment
MAADMMulti Actor Adaptive Decision Making
MAADMMulti Actor Adaptive Decision Making
• Energy transitions are subject to a range of uncertainties• We are getting better at characterising and managing
that uncertainty• We are not good at accommodating uncertainty in
decision making• We need to focus on the processes that support decision
making, as well as the models• The tools that are currently available to support decision
making do not reflect the decision environment well• We need to get better at representing the bounded
rationality of decision makers and the complexenvironment in which they make decisions
My main argument
MAADMMulti Actor Adaptive Decision Making
MAADMMulti Actor Adaptive Decision Making
• What do I mean by uncertainty?• Uncertainty in energy system modelling• Using models in decision making• Approaches to decision making under
uncertainty• The realities of decision making• How to reflect the realities of decision making
in decision support• Why is local an important scale to focus on?
Where are we going?
MAADMMulti Actor Adaptive Decision Making
MAADMMulti Actor Adaptive Decision Making
What do I mean by uncertainty?
Risk Knowledge where both the factors of risk and the likelihoodof those factor occurring can easily be identified andquantified (Knight 1921)
Endemicuncertainty
Insufficiency of models, necessities to set boundaries thusexogenising and making invisible certain possibilities,inaccuracy of measurements, and other issues thatsystemically generate ignorance as a function of constructingknowledge (Butler et al 2015)
Irreducibleuncertainty
Arising from system complexity, where defining cause andeffect is impossible and outcomes emerge from thebehaviour and interaction of a range of intermediate actors(Wynne 1992)
MAADMMulti Actor Adaptive Decision Making
MAADMMulti Actor Adaptive Decision Making
Uncertainty in models
MAADMMulti Actor Adaptive Decision Making
MAADMMulti Actor Adaptive Decision Making
https://www.birmingham.ac.uk/research/activity/energy/research/other-research/ascend/across-scales-in-energy-decision-making-ascend.aspx
Linking models and decision making
MAADMMulti Actor Adaptive Decision Making
MAADMMulti Actor Adaptive Decision Making
Because of complexity – uncertainty in speed andscale of change, long-timelines, multiple and interactinguncertainties, numerous stakeholders
Because of high stakes – high investment needs,urgency of change
Because of individuals – bounded rationality – weprioritise certain types of information and draw onemotions, values, gut feelings to make decisions quickly
And because of processes – drive preference for afixed best answer, preferably with a number attached e.g.cost/benefit ratio, rate of return on investment
Decisions under uncertainty [in energy] arehard
MAADMMulti Actor Adaptive Decision Making
MAADMMulti Actor Adaptive Decision Making
“the study finds that decision-makers require anew approach to uncertainty assessment thatovercomes analytical limits to existing practice, ismore flexible and adaptable, and which betterintegrates qualitative narratives with quantitativeanalysis” (Li and Pye 2018)
Decision making under uncertainty
MAADMMulti Actor Adaptive Decision Making
MAADMMulti Actor Adaptive Decision Making
Approaches from operational research:
Approaches to decision making underuncertainty
Source: Analysis underUncertainty for Decision-Makers NetworkDecision Support Tools forComplex Decisions underUncertaintyEdited by Simon Frenchfrom contributions frommany in the AU4DMnetwork
MAADMMulti Actor Adaptive Decision Making
MAADMMulti Actor Adaptive Decision Making
Long-term planning under deep uncertainty(DMDU):- Assumption-based planning- Robust Decision Making- Adaptive policy making- Adaptation pathways- Dynamic adaptive policy pathwaysMore detail in: Walker et al (2013) Adapt or Perish: A Review ofPlanning Approaches for Adaptation under Deep Uncertainty
Approaches to decision making underuncertainty
MAADMMulti Actor Adaptive Decision Making
MAADMMulti Actor Adaptive Decision Making
A group of decision support approaches that:• Explore how to express uncertainties and
options in a different way – how do we respondto uncertainties, not ignore or eliminate them?
• Enable foresight about future options– whichoptions do we open up or close down byactions in the short term?
• Build flexibility into decision making – howeasily can we move to alternative pathways?
Adaptive decision making
MAADMMulti Actor Adaptive Decision Making
MAADMMulti Actor Adaptive Decision Making
Adaptive decision making
Dynamicadaptive policypathways(Haasnoot et al2013)Source of figure:https://www.deltares.nl/en/adaptive-pathways/
MAADMMulti Actor Adaptive Decision Making
MAADMMulti Actor Adaptive Decision Making
Adaptive decision making
Source: https://www.deltares.nl/en/adaptive-pathways/
MAADMMulti Actor Adaptive Decision Making
MAADMMulti Actor Adaptive Decision Making
Source: Haasnoot etal (2013)
MAADMMulti Actor Adaptive Decision Making
MAADMMulti Actor Adaptive Decision Making
Source: Haasnoot etal (2013)
MAADMMulti Actor Adaptive Decision Making
MAADMMulti Actor Adaptive Decision Making
https://paulcairney.wordpress.com/2018/10/25/evidence-based-policymaking-and-the-new-policy-sciences-2/
The realities of decision making
• Multiple actors• Multiple plans/ objectives• Processes and context
driving decisions• Different types of decisions• Decisions at different scales• Public perceptions
MAADMMulti Actor Adaptive Decision Making
MAADMMulti Actor Adaptive Decision Making
Case studies- Transport- Energy system
Local Infrastructure Commissionhttps://maadm.leeds.ac.uk/local-infrastructure-commission/)Public engagement
What am I doing about this?
MAADMMulti Actor Adaptive Decision Making
MAADMMulti Actor Adaptive Decision Making
Multiple actors
MAADMMulti Actor Adaptive Decision Making
MAADMMulti Actor Adaptive Decision Making
Multiple actors
Roelich and Giesekam(2019)
MAADMMulti Actor Adaptive Decision Making
MAADMMulti Actor Adaptive Decision Making
Multiple objectives/plans
Regional transportauthority
Walking& cycling
Rapidtransit
Highways
Rail
Local authority
Highways Walking& cycling
Regional economicauthority
Spatialplanning
Airquality
HighwaysEngland
NationalDepartment for
Transport
Network Rail
MAADMMulti Actor Adaptive Decision Making
MAADMMulti Actor Adaptive Decision Making
Multiple objectives/plans
Walking and cycling are not thenatural choice for short journeys
Public transport is not sufficientlyaccessible
Reduce private car trips to half of alltrips
Decision1
Decision3
Decision4
Decision5
Decision6
Decision7
Decision2
Prob
lem
map
ping
Problem Phase 1: Problem definition Problem Phase 2: mapping problem todecision portfolio
Protocol – define problem in contextof complexity and uncertainty
Approach – articulate linkages betweenproblem and portfolio of decisions
MAADMMulti Actor Adaptive Decision Making
MAADMMulti Actor Adaptive Decision Making
A decision about whether to invest in a long-livedasset that might create conditions for systemicchange in the futureOrA decision about a short-lived asset that mightcreate change nowOrA decision about whether to set a target toencourage others to invest
Not all decisions are equal
MAADMMulti Actor Adaptive Decision Making
MAADMMulti Actor Adaptive Decision Making
Not all decisions are equal
• Reversibility
• Extent of control
• Type of uncertainty (level or issue?)
• Impact on vision/sensitivity of vision/impact on whole system
• Scale of investment
• Availability of data
• Exposure to political/legal challenge
• Interaction with other targets or problems
• Urgency
• Adaptive planning
• Robust DM
• Real options
• Multi-Criteria Decision Making
• Decision trees
• …..
Decision Phase 1: Decision screening Decision Phase 2: decision supportidentification
Decision tree – identify decisions in needof adaptive approach and ‘type’ of decision
- Institutional/investment/innovation?
Toolkit – map ‘type’ of decision ontoappropriate tool/approach/model withexamples of how these tools/approaches/models have been usedDe
cisio
nSu
ppor
t
MAADMMulti Actor Adaptive Decision Making
MAADMMulti Actor Adaptive Decision Making
The importance of context
MAADMMulti Actor Adaptive Decision Making
MAADMMulti Actor Adaptive Decision Making
The importance of context
• Stakeholder mapping • Use cases1
A ”use case” comprises actor(s), asystem, a goal and a scenario.
MAADMMulti Actor Adaptive Decision Making
MAADMMulti Actor Adaptive Decision Making
At the local scale:- The relationship between infrastructure and quality of
life is more apparent- The relationship between national policy and local
decisions is crucial- The evaluation of outcomes is generally poor- Systemic change needs to happen (compared to siloed
decision making)- The public has (and should have) more of a direct say in
decisions
The influence of scale – local decision making
MAADMMulti Actor Adaptive Decision Making
MAADMMulti Actor Adaptive Decision Making
The influence of scale – local decision making
MAADMMulti Actor Adaptive Decision Making
MAADMMulti Actor Adaptive Decision Making
- The public is affected by decisions made underuncertainty
- We are quite bad at engaging the public oncomplex issues
- We quite often engage them once we’vedecided what the answer is
- This can lead to resistance and slow project butalso has implications for the quality of theanswer and the wellbeing of the public
The influence of the public
MAADMMulti Actor Adaptive Decision Making
MAADMMulti Actor Adaptive Decision Making
The influence of the public
• Solutions need to align with values that underpinpublic perceptions
Efficient not wasteful
Environment and nature
Security and Stability
Autonomy and power
Process and change
Social justice and fairness
MAADMMulti Actor Adaptive Decision Making
MAADMMulti Actor Adaptive Decision Making
Digital tools for engagement can help to:
Reaching the public
• Facilitate visualisation• Foster collaboration and
reduce disagreement• Provide a platform for
multi-stakeholderengagement
• Engage some hard to reachgroups
MAADMMulti Actor Adaptive Decision Making
MAADMMulti Actor Adaptive Decision Making
• We are making great process in characterising andmanaging uncertainty
• But there needs to be more focus on accommodatinguncertainty in decision making
• To do this we need to understand the realities ofdecision making and develop tools and approachesappropriate to that context
• This also means thinking about the different scales ofdecisions
• And how to engage the public in decisions
The importance of understanding decisionsas well as uncertainty
MAADMMulti Actor Adaptive Decision Making
MAADMMulti Actor Adaptive Decision Making
[email protected]@katyroelichwww.maadm.leeds.ac.uk
Get in touch
MAADMMulti Actor Adaptive Decision Making
MAADMMulti Actor Adaptive Decision Making
Butler, C., Demski, C., Parkhill, K., Pidgeon, N., Spence, A., 2015. Public values for energyfutures: Framing, indeterminacy and policy making. Energy Policy 87, 665–672.
Cairney, P. and Oliver, K. (forthcoming) How should academics engage in policymaking toachieve impact? Political Studies Review. Available online
Haasnoot, M., Kwakkel, J., Walker, W. and ter Maat, J. (2013) Dynamic adaptive policypathways: A method for crafting robust decisions for a deeply uncertain world, GlobalEnvironmental Change, 23 (2), 485-498,
Li, F., and Pye, S. (2018) Uncertainty, politics, and technology: Expert perceptions onenergy transitions in the United Kingdom, Energy Research & Social Science, 37, 122-132,
Roelich, K. Giesekam, J (2019) Decision making under uncertainty in climate changemitigation: introducing multiple actor motivations, agency and influence, Climate Policy,19(2), 175-188
Walker, W., Haasnoot, M., Kwakkel, J. (2013) Adapt or Perish: A Review of PlanningApproaches for Adaptation under Deep Uncertainty Sustainability 5 (3), 955-979
Wynne, B., 1992. Uncertainty and environmental learning: Reconceiving science andpolicy in the preventive paradigm. Global Environmental Change 2, 111–127.
References