deciphering consumer trends and their impact on the outdoor industry

@ erwwpr Marian Salzman Trendspotting

DDeecciipphheerriinngg CCoonnssuummeerr TTrreennddssAnd Their Impact on the Outdoor Industry

Marian SalzmanOutdoor Industry Association

August 4, 2011


Why Trends?Why do we look at trends when

creating actionable and insightfulstrategies for big brands?




•To identify the driving forces behind today and thefuture and plan for long-term success.




•To identify the driving forces behind today and the futureand plan for long-term success.

•To discover unexpected opportunities that can helptransform brands and businesses.




•To identify the driving forces behind today and the futureand plan for long-term success.

•To discover unexpected opportunities that can helptransform brands and businesses.

•To manage into change by giving insight into thedrivers of key business, consumer and social trends.

Learning to Spot Trends

It means tracking


people

socialmomentum

companiesradical

breakthroughs

brandseconomies

Spotting trendsis big business for people

in many industries who needto be thinking ahead, for

themselves and their clients.


And, really, isn’t that

everyone today?


11.5 Macro Trends for 2020(and How They Mean Businessfor Outdoor-Involved Businesses)


1.Mother Earth Needs Valium;

We Need Reassurance



Outdoor activity is perceived as dangerous bysome (i.e. Moms) who see #OIBIZ marketingfeaturing “extremes” @LarryPluimer

1. Mother Earth NeedsValium; We Need Reassurance

•With financial and employment catastrophes a constantworry at home, the great outdoors offers the prospect ofrelief—or does it?

•Thoreau’s idyllic American outdoor vision now seems like anaïve fantasy.

•Katrina screamed “massive headache,” and we’ve beenwatching Mother Earth raging round the world ever since(Haiti, Japan, etc.).

•What’s next? The San Andreas tipping budget-strickenCalifornia over the edge? The Yellowstone Supervolcanoblowing the finale to end all finales?


1. Mother Earth NeedsValium; We Need Reassurance

•The more time people spend indoors, the riskier the outdoorsseems—all those natural hazards, not to mention theprospect of 127 hours in a crevice.

•Forget big disasters; there’s poison ivy, grizzlies, snakes, killer bees,bison, Lyme disease—plus careless drivers, clueless hunters, etc., etc.

•Maybe the answer is to get properly equipped for all outdooreventualities, but that’s expensive.

•Maybe it’s to seek out carefully managed, tame outdoorexperiences (“soft rugged”), but doesn’t that defeat the point?

•The industry thinks about outdoor participation daily; how do youjuxtapose “soft rugged” against “skills needed” and create an outdoorindustry future that fits “authentic” enthusiasts and everyone else?


What Trend No. 1Means for theOutdoor Industry:

The task: Get Americans off their buttsand outside–more motivated and lessfearful. How? Smart consumer segmentation;inclusive, clear brand positioning;and compelling communication.



The perceived stereotypes are no more; thereis a large urban contingent to #OIBIZ now. It’snot just about being in the mountains. @clinard

#mamaneedspills


2.The Great Escape?


2. The GreatEscape?

•Today, being outdoors doesn’t mean being out of contact. Skislopes and hiking trails—even Mount Everest—can now getcell service. Just what consumers want, right?

•Are we truly getting away from it all to improve our healthand de-stress only to be engaging in the very behavior thatmade us want to unplug?


2. The GreatEscape?

•And in terms of health, people now wonder about theemotional and psychological risks of being permanentlyreachable.

•Mobile connectivity has gone from handy convenience(remember pagers?) to business tool to somethingapproaching an addiction.



We need to talk amongst ourselves: Howmuch do we want to include connectivityinto equipment design when consumersmight rebel and choose total escape?On the other hand, do we want to bediscouraging connectivity?


#noanswer


3.Water: The Next Oil


3. Water: The Next Oil

•People have been talking about this for decades, but it willsoon come true—and we’re not talking bottled water, whichalready costs as much as $10 a gallon.

•Drier places in the world (Australia, the Middle East, theAmerican Southwest) have long lived with drought andsquabbled over water resources for the basics of life.

•Waterways are as much a part of deep American mythologyas Broadway—and more deeply sustaining in the long run.


3. Water: The Next Oil

•Modern consumption, hygiene habits and population growthare draining reservoirs, rivers and groundwater faster thana bathtub with the plug pulled.

•Another problem: The less time people spend outdoors, themore they forget that water doesn’t just come out of afaucet (and, yes, the Internet isn’t in your computer, either).

•So the more time people spend outdoors, the more likelythey are to appreciate water as a sacred resource. It’s allabout sustainability.



Savvy companies will tap intoconscientious consumers’ deep (andpossibly unconscious) well of yearningfor water with products that save,respect and celebrate water.


#nobusinesslikeflowbusiness


4.What’s NotOnline-able Is Doomed



My essential item would be my iPhone.Outdoor doesn’t mean cut-off. #oibiz @Capibaro

4. What’s Not Online-able Is Doomed

•1980s: CDs made LPs obsolete, then MP3 music through theInternet started killing CDs (and the old-style music industry).

•1990s: DVDs started replacing VHS; now, DVDs facepressure from Tivo-style DVRs and on-demand Internet-delivery services.

•Early 2000s: Digital cameras hit consumer markets; in2005, Kodak’s digital products and services overtook its filmproduct sales.

•Today: Printed books, magazines and newspapers are sellingless; in February 2011, e-book sales overtook print booksales by 202 percent month-over-month.


4. What’s Not Online-able Is Doomed

•The yin: Consumers might have their doubts abouttechnology (see Trend 2). The yang: Its benefits get morecompelling with every passing month.

•Indoors, people can do all the fact-finding they need: outdooractivities, locations, costs, user comments and reviews,equipment needed and where to buy it, etc.

•Outdoors, a mobile device can give directions, track progress,find stores, take and upload photos, post to social media,send texts, make phone calls. (No cell coverage? Load upmusic, videos, podcasts, books, maps, news and referencematerials ahead of time.)



For running, walking and cycling @runkeeperis a winner - great app at a great price, great(albeit short) brand story #oibiz @Stuarte


Brands or products that have coolonline elements will beat those thatdon’t. They need online smarts todeliver (digitally or otherwise) evenwhere there’s no signal.


#getonorgohome


5.The New Social:Antisocial (aka

Getting Away fromIt All)



Do you prefer to enjoy the outdoors in a largegroup, or solo? #oibiz


If looking for solitude & peace, then perhapsalone. If for gen rec & fun then w/ group likemy family @davepetri

5. The New Social:Antisocial (aka GettingAway from It All)

•Even if we don’t like the name, we all love social media inone form or another. But sometimes its paradoxes are justplain ridiculous—or tragic.

•People don’t smoke anymore when nervous in a socialsetting; they check their FB page or Twitter feed on theirmobile device.

•Some people even do it while walking, shopping, fishing,jogging, cycling…oblivious to the people around them—untilthey bump into them.


5. The New Social:Antisocial (aka GettingAway from It All)

•The “new social” often interrupts physical interactions withpeople—attention flits from face-to-face conversation to theonline action.

•Fifty-nine percent of online adults use at least one socialnetworking site. Are there benefits with connection?

•It’s a one-way trend of more technology. Another 10 years ofsmart phones and tablets (iPad 13?) will make it even morecompelling for consumers to interact socially through tech.



With social media on mobile devices,consumers can have the best of bothworlds: doing activities outside andbeing able to connect as much or aslittle as they want (sharingexperiences, favorite trails, pictures,bragging rights and more).


#socialsecurity


6.The Brain and HomoSapiens 2.0


6. The Brain and HomoSapiens 2.0

•The brain—the final frontier—has 100 billion neurons, eachwith 1,000 to 10,000 synapses and trillions of connections.

•Neuroscience is the new rock ’n’ roll, the new media darling,looking into brains with high-tech scanners and revealingthe workings of everything from addiction to zoophobia.

•It holds out the promise of enhancing memory andcreativity, plus offering better treatment for illnesses anddelaying the brain’s aging with supplements, drugs anddevices.


6. The Brain and HomoSapiens 2.0

•We now know that our brains are shaped—literally—by whatwe experience. For millennia, the sights, sounds and feelingsof the outdoors have shaped brains.

•Now we’re increasingly experiencing interactive technologymediated through screens.

•We have the scientific instruments to see how the technicaltools we’re using are changing our brains; we have a boxseat for the emergence of Homo sapiens 2.0.

“Perhaps not since early man first discovered how touse a tool has the human brain been affected soquickly and so dramatically.” —UCLA neuroscientist Gary

Small on modern technology




Watch as n (for “neuro”) gets applied tobrain products and services: nBoosters,nHancers, nGames, nGagement. The outdoorindustry needs to be an importantshaper of healthy brains: It would besad for Homo sapiens 2.0 if brains’environment of the future is nDoors.

#brainsgetsmart



7.Hyperlocal Isthe New Global–

Indoors and Out


There are certain products that should requireinteraction. Proper technical boot fitting can’tbe done over the web. #OIBIZ - @clinard

7. Hyperlocal Is the NewGlobal–Indoors and Out

•It’s interesting to know what’s happening in other parts ofthe world, but it’s really interesting—and useful—to knowwhat’s happening right on your doorstep. Virtuallyguaranteed relevance.

•When hot or cold weather comes unexpectedly early, smartonline stores might flag relevant promotions—and figure outhow to deliver the goods within hours. Plus, buying locallyhelps the local economy and supports the community. Nocontest.


7. Hyperlocal Is the NewGlobal–Indoors and Out

•All the hot new online services are either about where youlive or work or where you are right now with your mobiledevice so that they can deliver news, information and dealsthat likely matter to you.

•Hyperlocal media such as Patch is more than just thetraditional local newspaper or broadcasting delivered online,although Patch’s model involves journalism and bloggers(and CSR); it’s a real-time, interactive connection within andbetween local communities.

•Hyperlocal means being able to get together on-the-flypicnics and softball games in the local park, or arrangeimpromptu bike rides with real flesh-and-blood people.



With the Internet, businesses can trackconsumer choices and adjust offers tomatch. Hyperlocal media makes themeven more relevant to consumers andtheir communities as they go about theiractivities indoors and out.


#locoforlocal


8.Brutal Honesty/Rugged Love


8. Brutal Honesty/Rugged Love

•Years of playing nicely together led to an “everyone gets amedal” mentality, with every action earning “Great job!”

•Political correctness has prompted endless mentalcontortions to avoid causing offense. Being honesty-challenged might be the most widespread condition of ourtimes.

•“Awesome” is killing us. Sitting indoors staring at screens ismaking Americans soft and pudgy—armchair athletes,lounger pundits, the indoor version of the Marines (aka WiiWarriors).


8. Brutal Honesty/Rugged Love

•Whether laziness, habit or fear of the wide world outside,the brutally honest truth is that America is losing therugged edge and frontier spirit that made it great. We riskbecoming a nation of sedentary, pudgy, pasty-faced softieswho leave the tough stuff to an elite few.

•As world citizens, especially Americans, try to deal with thechallenges of China and India, they will look for ways totoughen up and will increasingly value tell-it-like-it-is honesty.

•Consumers are loving the rugged that’s served up for them:Dial’s Camp Dirt sweepstakes and “Dirty Jobs” on Discoveryare just two examples from outside the industry; there aredozens more from inside it.



Millions of Americans could get hugebenefits from stepping out of theircentrally heated or air-conditionedcomfort zone. The outdoor industryneeds to practice rugged love toconvince more Americans to develop ahands-on love of rugged.


#justsayit



9.Beached White MalesSeek New Habitats

9. Beached White MalesSeek New Habitats

•Despite what typical Hollywood movies have shown, thereality of life for many American men has been moreWilliam H. Macy than Clint Eastwood.

•After the recession of the early 1990s, the movie FallingDown portrayed an average Caucasian American male ragingagainst downsizing, immigrants, crime, an anti-male legalsystem and commercial hype. Things have not gotten better.

•The angry white man (AWM) has been an increasinglyinfluential figure in America (think Joe the Plumber), riledby affirmative action, the rise of women and the decline inblue-collar occupations.


9. Beached White MalesSeek New Habitats

•Now, the Great Recession has birthed what Newsweek calledBeached White Males. Better educated than AWMs, theybecame used to living the dream—but now are surplus to theneeds of a straitened economy.

•Tough times are ahead: The nation’s finances are shot,educated women are ever more influential in the workforce,Hispanics are growing in number and America is losing itsNo. 1 status.

•What can BWMs do to get some of the respect they used toenjoy—particularly those who earn (or earned) their livingdoing jobs involving lots of sitting indoors and pushing pixels?



Go west! (Or at least go outside.) Thegreat American outdoors–and heritagebrands that reflect it–can refresh thesouls and stiffen the sinews of thenation’s BWMs. For outdoor industrymarketers, here’s the positioning: softcore vs. hard core; ironic vs. serious.



“How do you define outdoor recreation?” Massretailers make no distinction bt hunting/fishing and outdoor rec. Why do we? #oibiz -@LarryPluimer

#getout


10.More Realthan Real



50% of all innovation processes will be gamifiedby 2015 - Gamification is transformingbusiness. - Gabe Zichermann #SB11@SustainBrands

10. More Real than Real

•Lots of things from real life can be done in computersimulation, which can save time, money and lives. Even inthe dark ages of computer graphics, U.S. Marines and airlinepilots did it.

•With CGI and 3-D, gamemakers and moviemakers arecreating experiences more vivid, more stimulating and moreengrossing than almost anything in the real world.

•Millions of civilians immerse themselves in hyperrealisticcomputer games for hours on end.


10. More Real than Real

•It’s a good idea for consumers to get many thrills insimulation rather than IRL (in real life), from high-speedcar chases to illicit sex.

•As computing power increases and tech companies refineofferings, consumers will increasingly find ordinary lifeexperiences less “real” than mediated virtual ones.

•But some virtual experiences can still whet consumers’appetites for the real thing: the feel of a warm sun, the smellof freshly cut grass, the gurgle of water rushing over rapids.

•And companies will want to include gaming as part ofemployee training.



Virtual is here to stay, so the outdoorindustry must figure out ways to useprograms and apps as stepping-stonesto create desire for the real outdoorsand the products that go with it.


#virtualnecessity



11.Bankrupt + Broke= Gritty Chic

11. Bankrupt + Broke = Gritty Chic

•Until a couple of years ago, ordinary Americans could tastea little of the high life with a home equity loan and a smartjuggling of credit cards.

•But at the end of 2010, 11.1 million U.S. households (23.1percent of homeowners) were in negative equity, with noprospects of the housing market picking up soon.

•Things have bounced back for the top 1 percent ofAmericans (who take in almost a quarter of the nation’sincome and own around 40 percent of its wealth), but theremaining 99 percent aren’t in such great shape.


11. Bankrupt + Broke = Gritty Chic

•If it’s any consolation to the 99 percent, the shine of the 1 percent is much less bright than before the financialmeltdown. They’ve lost their chic.

•Expect Americans’ ingenuity and love of the comeback toreinvent a gritty chic by/for the battling bankrupt and broke.

•But at what price for the outdoor industry? What is theconsumer tolerance for higher prices when they have lessmoney to spend?



Here at CiloGear, I find that really welldesigned and built function turns intointeresting good fashion. #oibiz - @cilogear


Think simpler, aim to create sense ofaccessibility & show how 2 stay w/in reasonablebudget, dispel myth of how $$$ #oibiz is -@BryanKuhn


Speak authentically and honestly tothe condition of people who have a lotless spending power than they usedto–but still have self-respect, hope,dreams and hobbies–while keepingyourself in business.


#pushandpull


11.5New Traditions for theMaking and Taking


11.5 New Traditions forthe Making and Taking

•Everybody likes traditions (royal wedding, anyone?), butwho wants to wait around for years for an enjoyable one-offto mature into a tradition that we can also look forward to?

•Fortunately, modern life and interactive technologies distortthe fabric of space and time.

•Anything that has happened three years running is well onthe way to feeling like a tradition. No wonder SXSW(founded in 1987) and even Lebowski Fest (founded in2002) seem to have been there forever.


11.5 New Traditions forthe Making and Taking

•With the echo chamber of interactive multichanneltechnology, any event that has traction hits multiple touchpoints and creates numerous cross-references, making it feelfamiliar very quickly.

•As interactivity and the pace of life accelerate, there will beplenty of scope for people to create a whole calendar of newtraditions to anticipate.

•Marathons have become a fixture across the U.S. andCanada, running from three on New Year’s Day to the LastChance marathon on Dec. 31; triathlon participation is upmore than 10 percent and adventure racing up 18+ percentover last year, according to OIA.


What Trend No. 11.5Means for theOutdoor Industry:

There’s an appetite for annual events thatstretch legs, but not everybody is up forlong distances. Fortunately, there arealternatives. Take the Dutch tradition ofFour Day marches, which gets communitieswalking their local area for severalhours on consecutive evenings–a winningmix of local, community and outdoor.



The only entry requirement is positivedisposition. Enthusiasm is a better factor than“fitness.” Why isolate your audience? #OIBIZ -@clinard

#practice=perfect


What It All Means

•Everything is changing faster, more furiously and sometimeswith less purpose than ever.

•Sustainability is key.

•The $1 million question: How much technology do consumerswant in their outdoor experience?

•A big challenge and opportunity for the outdoor industry isto remind Americans that not all the interesting stuff in lifehappens through a screen. Engaging in real-life outdoors canbe pretty immersive, too.

•And the industry needs to be open to letting more people inthe “club.”


Thank you.


deciphering consumer trends and their impact on the outdoor industry

Business

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