december finalyst2011
DESCRIPTION
Finalyst Magazine of Finance Club of SCMHRDTRANSCRIPT
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Economy F!NAL$T December 2011
Symbiosis Centre for Management and Human Resource Development Page 1
About SCMHRD
Economy F!NAL$T December 2011
Symbiosis Centre for Management and Human Resource Development Page 2
About SCMHRD
Leadership-Entrepreneurship B-School
SCMHRD was established in 1993. Ever since its inception, SCMHRD has strived to bring Indian ethos, Management
concepts and technological advances together in an effort to redefine the management paradigm in the new age.
SCMHRD has successfully pioneered the implementation of Kaizen on campus. The practice helps in keeping the
campus clean and gives the students a feeling of ownership, inculcating in them a feeling of belonging and
camaraderie. The SCMHRD culture provides the students an environment that allows them to think and reflect, to
explore and express.
Vision
To become a Centre of Excellence for Global leadership and entrepreneurship, the standards of which others are
measured by.
Mission
To create leaders and entrepreneurs of tomorrow, their dedication to excellence, absolute. SCMHRD was established
in 1993. Ever since its inception, SCMHRD has strived to bring Indian ethos, Management concepts and technological
advances together in an effort to redefine the management paradigm in the new age.
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Economy F!NAL$T Decemb
Symbiosis Centre for Management and Human Resource Development
From the Editor
Dear Readers,
The world has changed a lot from the days of Bretton Woods. We need to catch up
Euro zone's debt crisis is quivering the global economy and breakup of currency zone can no longer be ruled out.
America's jobless rate passes 10%. Not so pretty picture of India shows Indian rupee hitting a historic low of
against a US Dollar. Fear of inflation is flaming up as oil imports become costlier. SBI credit rating downgrade by
Moody's indicates volatility and uncertain conditions.
Other important tidings in financial world are drawing the curtains on administer
interest rate on saving accounts. RBI also decided to reduce the validity of cheques and bank drafts from present 6
months to 3 months beginning next fiscal year.
Does not quench your news thirst?
Read our December e-issue which features drawing parallels bet
an interesting read. In this issue we scratch the controversial topic of black box trading. Imagine the robots taking
over the world! However, the cream of the pi
Other riveting articles include Financial Inclusion and where India is heading.
If this smorgasbord of articles proves informative and insightful, press the 'Like' button on 'Finance Club at
page. We would eagerly wait for your valuable suggestions and feedback. We also seek your support and zeal for the
upcoming Research Seminar on Commodity Market in association with MCX and FMC on 18th Feb'12 at Mumbai.
Happy Reading!!
Inside the Issue
Where is our Economy heading?
Crossword
Black Box in the Financial Market
Greece Debt Crisis: Should India Reflect?
Finalyst Debate: Should Kingfisher be bailed out by Government?
Financial Inclusion: Dream yet to be Realised
Bush vs. Obama: The Mighty vs. the Charisma
The Beleaguered Rupee- still bearish?
Economy F!NAL$T Decemb
Symbiosis Centre for Management and Human Resource Development
The world has changed a lot from the days of Bretton Woods. We need to catch up too.
Euro zone's debt crisis is quivering the global economy and breakup of currency zone can no longer be ruled out.
America's jobless rate passes 10%. Not so pretty picture of India shows Indian rupee hitting a historic low of
against a US Dollar. Fear of inflation is flaming up as oil imports become costlier. SBI credit rating downgrade by
Moody's indicates volatility and uncertain conditions.
Other important tidings in financial world are drawing the curtains on administered lending rates i.e. deregulation of
interest rate on saving accounts. RBI also decided to reduce the validity of cheques and bank drafts from present 6
months to 3 months beginning next fiscal year.
issue which features drawing parallels between Greece and India. Bush
an interesting read. In this issue we scratch the controversial topic of black box trading. Imagine the robots taking
over the world! However, the cream of the pie is debate on whether the government should bail out Kingfisher.
Other riveting articles include Financial Inclusion and where India is heading.
If this smorgasbord of articles proves informative and insightful, press the 'Like' button on 'Finance Club at
page. We would eagerly wait for your valuable suggestions and feedback. We also seek your support and zeal for the
upcoming Research Seminar on Commodity Market in association with MCX and FMC on 18th Feb'12 at Mumbai.
Greece Debt Crisis: Should India Reflect?
Finalyst Debate: Should Kingfisher be bailed out by Government?
ream yet to be Realised
Charismatic
Economy F!NAL$T December 2011
Symbiosis Centre for Management and Human Resource Development Page 3
Euro zone's debt crisis is quivering the global economy and breakup of currency zone can no longer be ruled out.
America's jobless rate passes 10%. Not so pretty picture of India shows Indian rupee hitting a historic low of 54.19
against a US Dollar. Fear of inflation is flaming up as oil imports become costlier. SBI credit rating downgrade by
ed lending rates i.e. deregulation of
interest rate on saving accounts. RBI also decided to reduce the validity of cheques and bank drafts from present 6
ween Greece and India. Bush vs. Obama is definitely
an interesting read. In this issue we scratch the controversial topic of black box trading. Imagine the robots taking
e is debate on whether the government should bail out Kingfisher.
If this smorgasbord of articles proves informative and insightful, press the 'Like' button on 'Finance Club at SCMHRD'
page. We would eagerly wait for your valuable suggestions and feedback. We also seek your support and zeal for the
upcoming Research Seminar on Commodity Market in association with MCX and FMC on 18th Feb'12 at Mumbai.
4
6
7
10
14
16
18
21
Economy F!NAL$T Decemb
Symbiosis Centre for Management and Human Resource Development
Where is our Economy Heading?
20 years ago, by breaking government control over
the economy, opening up Indian markets to foreign
investment, easing trade, devaluing the rupee, Dr
Manmohan Singh dismantled, in one go, the walls
between the sluggish, protected, conserved economy
of socialist India and the rest of the world. "I do not
minimize the difficulties that lie ahead on the long and
arduous journey on which we have embarked," Singh
said at the conclusion of his speech. "But as Victor
Hugo once said, 'No power on Earth can stop an idea
whose time has come.' I suggest to this August House
that the emergence of India as a major economic
power in the world happens to be one such idea."
While much has been achieved in 20 years, unfinished
agenda is huge.
While we celebrate 20 years of liberalization of
economy, our economy is going through some
troubled times. Recently, Moody's downgraded the
entire Indian banking system outlook from 'stable' to
'negative' citing the slowing of economy and an
increase in nonperforming assets (NPAs). Earlier in
September, it downgraded India's largest public and
most trusted nationalized bank SBI by one notch over
deteriorating capital ratio and poor asset quality.
Inflation figures have rocketed to double digits, with
food inflation topping at 12.21% in the last week of
October. Fuel prices have been hiked twice in the last
two months. Rupee is depreciating continuously,
although it helps exports boom. The political drama in
Italy and Greece is nearing doom for Euro and sending
Economy F!NAL$T Decemb
Symbiosis Centre for Management and Human Resource Development
Where is our Economy Heading?
breaking government control over
the economy, opening up Indian markets to foreign
investment, easing trade, devaluing the rupee, Dr
Manmohan Singh dismantled, in one go, the walls
between the sluggish, protected, conserved economy
he rest of the world. "I do not
minimize the difficulties that lie ahead on the long and
arduous journey on which we have embarked," Singh
said at the conclusion of his speech. "But as Victor
Hugo once said, 'No power on Earth can stop an idea
as come.' I suggest to this August House
that the emergence of India as a major economic
power in the world happens to be one such idea."
While much has been achieved in 20 years, unfinished
While we celebrate 20 years of liberalization of Indian
economy, our economy is going through some
troubled times. Recently, Moody's downgraded the
entire Indian banking system outlook from 'stable' to
'negative' citing the slowing of economy and an
assets (NPAs). Earlier in
September, it downgraded India's largest public and
most trusted nationalized bank SBI by one notch over
deteriorating capital ratio and poor asset quality.
Inflation figures have rocketed to double digits, with
pping at 12.21% in the last week of
October. Fuel prices have been hiked twice in the last
two months. Rupee is depreciating continuously,
although it helps exports boom. The political drama in
Italy and Greece is nearing doom for Euro and sending
panic throughout the world, including India. RBI raised
interest rates for the 13th time since early 2010 to
tackle inflation, which unfortunately is like a wild
elephant out on a rampage to disrupt the entire
economic balance. The Index of Industrial Production
hit a low of 1.9% and is continuously decreasing from
the past three months. Add to these woes, the policy
paralysis of Government and you find our country is in
more dire state. Is the ground condition so bad? Let
us analyze the situation and try to antici
future growth of our economy.
Moody's downgraded the Indian banks as it warned of
slowing growth hitting asset quality, capitalization and
profitability. However Standard and Poor contrasted
the views of Moody's and upgraded the Indian
banking sector due to robustness of economy and
control over monetary policies. "India's banking
system has a high level of stable, core customer
deposits, which limit dependence on external
borrowing. The government is likely to provide timely
financial support to the banking system, if needed," it
said. But the point of concern in the balance sheet of
banks is the increase in Non Performing Assets (NPA)
up to 5 lakh crores approximately. While the private
sector banks have decreased lending due to the
economic downturn, public sector banks have
continued their aggressive lending as a deliberate
policy choice; of opting to keep bank lending going
(against commercial sense) in the hope that it would
help shore up economic growth. There are some
Economy F!NAL$T December 2011
Symbiosis Centre for Management and Human Resource Development Page 4
Where is our Economy Heading?
roughout the world, including India. RBI raised
interest rates for the 13th time since early 2010 to
tackle inflation, which unfortunately is like a wild
elephant out on a rampage to disrupt the entire
economic balance. The Index of Industrial Production
it a low of 1.9% and is continuously decreasing from
the past three months. Add to these woes, the policy
paralysis of Government and you find our country is in
more dire state. Is the ground condition so bad? Let
us analyze the situation and try to anticipate the
future growth of our economy.
Moody's downgraded the Indian banks as it warned of
slowing growth hitting asset quality, capitalization and
profitability. However Standard and Poor contrasted
the views of Moody's and upgraded the Indian
tor due to robustness of economy and
control over monetary policies. "India's banking
system has a high level of stable, core customer
deposits, which limit dependence on external
borrowing. The government is likely to provide timely
he banking system, if needed," it
said. But the point of concern in the balance sheet of
banks is the increase in Non Performing Assets (NPA)
up to 5 lakh crores approximately. While the private
sector banks have decreased lending due to the
urn, public sector banks have
continued their aggressive lending as a deliberate
policy choice; of opting to keep bank lending going
(against commercial sense) in the hope that it would
help shore up economic growth. There are some
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Editorial F!NAL$T December 2011
Symbiosis Centre for Management and Human Resource Development Page 5
groups of people who believe that the management
of all banks has been manipulating the figures of bad
debts in a close nexus with the officials of RBI, while
the banks defend themselves saying that the funds
have been given for infrastructure development
projects especially power (state electricity boards)
and realty sector and the money would return back
and so they are not included in bad debts calculations.
Also the banks feel that higher interest rates and slow
revenue growth are major reasons for rising bad
loans.
But the biggest hit to banks' bottom lines could come
from the large corporations like Kingfisher Airlines,
which owes banks approximately Rs.7000 crores and
is on the verge of bankruptcy.
Another big concern for the government is the trade
off between inflation and interest rates. They are
impacting key investment decisions, since they have a
great impact on the returns on the investment. With
the rising interest rates in India, people have low
tendency to borrow and this affects the supply of
money. High interest rates encourage people to save
their money and hence growth is affected as the flow
of money in the market reduces. India's WPI inflation
rose to 9.73% with food inflation topping the chart.
RBI has tried to tame inflation by increasing interest
rates to stabilize the national economy. So far they
have not succeeded in achieving low inflation, but the
growth has slowed down considerably forcing the
government to revise the estimated GDP growth from
8-9% to 7.5%.
The rupee is depreciating due to large demand of
dollar in the market and in spite of RBI pumping
approximately 700 million dollars. But according to
CRISIL research, rupee would appreciate once foreign
investments start coming in by the end of financial
year. The formation of new governments in Italy and
Greece is giving a ray of hope for the future of Euro
and the world as a whole gave thumbs up to the new
formation for reviving their economies. Government
is to be blamed the most for the ongoing crisis (if we
can say so) for the lack of powerful measures and
many top industrialists, in a recently completed Indian
Economic Summit, concluded that what the country
needed was quicker decisions and better policy-
making. India is growing younger, and its population
wants things faster and better.
While on the positive side, normal monsoons, good
sowing and robust estimates of Kharif production
have led us to revise the agricultural GDP forecast for
2011-12 to 3.2% from 2.7%. Also the impact of US
debt crisis and Euro zone crisis was least felt in our
country due to proper controls and policies in place.
But still a lot has to be done and we expect that as the
general elections come closer, the government would
take good policy measures for the development of our
economy.
Ravi Matalia
MBA I
Editorial F!NAL$T December 2
Symbiosis Centre for Management and Human Resource Development
Across
1. An international bank rating system (1,1,1,1,1)
2. A worldwide financial messaging network
which exchanges messages between banks
and other financial institutions (1,1,1,1,1)
3. Immediate or cancel order (1,1,1)
4. A price pattern in candlestick charting that
occurs when a security trades significantly
lower than its opening, but rallies later in the
day to close either above or close to its
opening price (6)
5. Loans made by a bank or finance company, on
which repayments or interest payments are
not being made on time (1,1,1)
6. The account a correspondent bank, usually
U.S. or UK, holds on behalf of a foreign bank
(6)
7. A measure of the volatility, or systematic risk,
of a security or a portfolio in comparison to
the market as a whole (4)
al F!NAL$T December 2
Symbiosis Centre for Management and Human Resource Development
Crossword
An international bank rating system (1,1,1,1,1)
A worldwide financial messaging network
which exchanges messages between banks
and other financial institutions (1,1,1,1,1)
Immediate or cancel order (1,1,1)
A price pattern in candlestick charting that
occurs when a security trades significantly
lower than its opening, but rallies later in the
day to close either above or close to its
finance company, on
which repayments or interest payments are
The account a correspondent bank, usually
U.S. or UK, holds on behalf of a foreign bank
A measure of the volatility, or systematic risk,
tfolio in comparison to
8. An investment fund traded on stock
exchanges just like stocks (1,1,1)
9. The second largest reserve currency in the
world after USD (4)
10. A fee or charge assessed to an investor for
withdrawing money prior to a
stipulated date (4,3)
Down
1. First country to issue currency (5)
2. Former MD of Mckinsey & Company who was
arrested in 2011 by FBI on insider trading
charges (5,5)
3. The average interest rate that leading banks in
London charge when lending to other
(1,1,1,1,1)
4. An unethical practice employed by some
brokers to increase their commissions by
excessively trading in a client's account (8)
5. A decentralized market of securities not listed
on an exchange where market participants
trade over the telephon
network instead of a physical trading floor
(1,1,1,6)
6. Founded by Anil Agarwal in 1976, this
company was in news due to its deal with
Cairn India (7)
7. Online trading system of BSE (1,1,1,1)
8. Currency that a government has declared to
be legal tender, despite the fact that it has no
intrinsic value and is not backed by reserves
(4,5)
al F!NAL$T December 2011
Symbiosis Centre for Management and Human Resource Development Page 6
An investment fund traded on stock
exchanges just like stocks (1,1,1)
The second largest reserve currency in the
world after USD (4)
A fee or charge assessed to an investor for
withdrawing money prior to a previously
stipulated date (4,3)
First country to issue currency (5)
Former MD of Mckinsey & Company who was
arrested in 2011 by FBI on insider trading
The average interest rate that leading banks in
London charge when lending to other banks
An unethical practice employed by some
brokers to increase their commissions by
excessively trading in a client's account (8)
A decentralized market of securities not listed
on an exchange where market participants
trade over the telephone or electronic
network instead of a physical trading floor
Founded by Anil Agarwal in 1976, this
company was in news due to its deal with
Online trading system of BSE (1,1,1,1)
Currency that a government has declared to
tender, despite the fact that it has no
intrinsic value and is not backed by reserves
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Editorial F!NAL$T December 2
Symbiosis Centre for Management and Human Resource Development
Black Box in Financial Market
Unlike in an airplane, where a Black Box is used to
determine the reasons of failure, the Black Box of
stock markets is said to be in some way a contributor
to their fall. Black Box Trading is said to be a major
contributor for the famous "flash crash of 2
2010 when 9% of the US market (Dow Jones)
strangely disappeared in 5 minutes without anyone
knowing as to what actually happened.
Black Box Trading System also called Algorithmic
Trading or Robot Trading is a system in which
investment strategies are determined by powerful
computer algorithms rather than by traditional stock
selection techniques or methods such as company's
past performance, current market position, future
plans, management, etc. These days computers are
capable of processing huge volumes of data in fraction
of a second and identify trends in a market. This has
helped some funds to effectively delegate trading
decisions pertaining to the timing of execution of the
order, price and the quantity; to the black boxes
which they have created. These programmed
computers seize upon temporary trading patterns
rather than analyzing the underlying companies thus
making markets more volatile.
And this is what is exactly happening. Black box
traders depend on these programs running on super
fast computers which place thousands of buy and sell
orders per second to exploit the short
opportunities which keep on arising in the market and
which are extremely difficult for a human to cash on.
al F!NAL$T December 2
Symbiosis Centre for Management and Human Resource Development
Black Box in Financial Market
Unlike in an airplane, where a Black Box is used to
determine the reasons of failure, the Black Box of
stock markets is said to be in some way a contributor
. Black Box Trading is said to be a major
contributor for the famous "flash crash of 2:45" in
2010 when 9% of the US market (Dow Jones)
strangely disappeared in 5 minutes without anyone
Black Box Trading System also called Algorithmic
Trading is a system in which
are determined by powerful
computer algorithms rather than by traditional stock-
selection techniques or methods such as company's
past performance, current market position, future
computers are
e volumes of data in fraction
of a second and identify trends in a market. This has
helped some funds to effectively delegate trading
decisions pertaining to the timing of execution of the
order, price and the quantity; to the black boxes
reated. These programmed
computers seize upon temporary trading patterns
rather than analyzing the underlying companies thus
And this is what is exactly happening. Black box
on these programs running on super-
ast computers which place thousands of buy and sell
orders per second to exploit the short-term trading
opportunities which keep on arising in the market and
which are extremely difficult for a human to cash on.
In August 2011 it was estimated that high
trading or algorithmic trading accounted for almost
70% of all share transactions in New York. At the same
time, high-frequency trading accounted for as much
as 50% of trading in London and has been blamed for
aggravating intra-day swings and putti
investors at a disadvantage due to the pace at which
such trades are placed in the market.
How it works?
Let us understand this with an example. If a hedge
fund's client wishes to sell off large quantities of a
company's stock all at once, the inflow of the stock in
the market would result in the price coming down,
much to the despair of the hedge fund and the client.
To avoid this type of loss, hedge funds use algorithms
or programs that break down the stocks into
numerous smaller transactions and sell them through
more tactful channels. But it's a competitive world
al F!NAL$T December 2011
Symbiosis Centre for Management and Human Resource Development Page 7
In August 2011 it was estimated that high-frequency
trading or algorithmic trading accounted for almost
70% of all share transactions in New York. At the same
frequency trading accounted for as much
as 50% of trading in London and has been blamed for
day swings and putting ordinary
investors at a disadvantage due to the pace at which
such trades are placed in the market.
Let us understand this with an example. If a hedge
fund's client wishes to sell off large quantities of a
nce, the inflow of the stock in
the market would result in the price coming down,
much to the despair of the hedge fund and the client.
To avoid this type of loss, hedge funds use algorithms
or programs that break down the stocks into
sactions and sell them through
more tactful channels. But it's a competitive world
Editorial F!NAL$T December 2011
Symbiosis Centre for Management and Human Resource Development Page 8
and competitors have algorithms in place to detect
other algorithms trading large quantities of stock.
Thus, when one firm notices another firm trading
Company X's stock in bulk, they can take a short
position on the stock because the prices are going to
fall with a huge inflow of company X's stocks.
Hedge funds are increasingly relying on this type of
trading to sell or buy large amounts of stocks without
triggering a price reaction in the market. Naturally,
the market becomes more volatile when algorithms,
working only on the basis of minor price fluctuations
are executing orders to make gains. But what is ironic
is that there are programs which break volumes into
smaller transactions and programs to identify such
activities and find out the size of the trade.
The depth of despair came in the first week of August
2011 when investors in Europe moved strongly
against Societe Generale, the largest bank of France
pushing its shares down by as much as 20%.As a
result, European regulators banned shorting on banks
in France as well as three other European countries.
Lord Paul Myners, Her majesty's Treasury in UK's
Finance Ministry said, High-frequency trading has
been a contributing factor in the harsh swings which
have led to more than 300bn being wiped off the
value of British shares since the beginning of July.
Also, the average transaction size has also gone down
significantly in the past few years.
So now days a fund manager, instead of looking for
good brokers is looking for a good program or
algorithm to facilitate him with his trade practices.
Also like other computer software, these programs
are getting customized to suit the customers' needs.
Kevin Slain, co-founder of the Game Development
Company and an algorithmic expert talks about this.
He says that the algorithms of Wall Street are
dependent on one major quality, which is speed and
they operate at milliseconds and microseconds. So, if
a Wall Street algorithm is a few microseconds behind
the others; it loses. So this algorithm needs to be as
close as it could get to the internet server and there is
a fight to get internet signals faster so as to close the
deal a few milliseconds faster as compared to others
and make money.
The Indian Scenario
The Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) had
legalised algorithmic trading in early 2008, just as the
financial crises began to make its presence felt in
India. Foreign brokers were the first ones to introduce
algorithmic trading but backed off as equities started
sinking. Lehman Brothers' India was one of the first to
launch a platform for algorithmic trading for its clients
in August 2008, only to declare bankruptcy the very
next month. But when the equity market started
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Editorial F!NAL$T December 2011
Symbiosis Centre for Management and Human Resource Development Page 9
picking up since 2009, algorithmic trading found its
feet again.
The initial focus was on building a market for this type
of trading with complete proprietary desks and tech-
savvy investors, and the initial batch of products were
offerings that allowed investors to work with inbuilt
models. Trades can be executed through these
programs at incredible speeds of as low as 150 micro
seconds or 1/2000th the time it takes the human eye
to blink. In a little over three years since SEBI allowed
it, trading through this route has started to account
for nearly a quarter of the total volumes in Indian
markets. And seeing the scenario in the developed
markets, this number can only be expected to grow.
The dependency on these programs has increased to
such an extent that, some have even put down the lid
on their risk management systems which have been
made mandatory by regulators and exchanges just to
save a few microseconds. An algorithmic trade can be
executed in 150 microseconds, but the presence of a
risk management system can add another 500
microseconds to it. Therefore, they switch off or dilute
the risk management systems to save on time.
What can be surely said is that with reducing human
element, the markets will become more predictable
but boring with the war of having a better algorithm
in place rather better intellect. It would be like having
an F1 race with drivers being significantly replaced by
computers dictating them directions. What a boring
race it would be!
Akshay Narang
MBA I
Answers to Crossword
Across
1. CAMELS
2. SWIFT
3. IOC
4. Hammer
5. NPA
6. Vostro
7. Beta
8. ETF
9. Euro
10. Exit Fee
Down
1. China
2. Rajat Gupta
3. LIBOR
4. Churning
5. OTC Market
6. Vedanta
7. BOLT
8. Fiat Money
Editorial F!NAL$T December 2
Symbiosis Centre for Management and Human Resource Development
Greece Debt Crisis: Should India Reflect?
In this article an attempt has been made to list the
major causes of Greek Debt Crisis, to draw parallels
with conditions prevailing in India and to see whether
the same can profligate the Indian Growth
Brief Introduction to the Greek and
Economy
al F!NAL$T December 2
Symbiosis Centre for Management and Human Resource Development
Greece Debt Crisis: Should India Reflect?
In this article an attempt has been made to list the
major causes of Greek Debt Crisis, to draw parallels
with conditions prevailing in India and to see whether
Indian Growth Story.
Greek and the Indian
With this background, we now analyse
of Greek crisis and whether India should reflect to
avoid similar crisis at home.
1. Welfare State
Greece
Greece economy emerged as a welfare state,
implementing populist policies rather than following
self sustaining business model. An automatic, indexed
salary instead of pay increases based on productivity,
the infamous 13th and 14th monthly salaries etc.
were some of the causes of high budget deficits.
India
Social democratic policies governed India's economy
from 1947 to 1991, characterized by extensive
regulation, protectionism, public ownership, pervasive
corruption and slow growth.
Since 1991, continuing economic liberalization and
reforms have accelerated India's economic growth
and moved the country towards a market
economy.
However, even at present in India, like in Greece, the
ruling elite have their own welfare state, doling
populist handouts to win votes.
For example, India is trying to fight poverty through
National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme
(NREGA). This scheme is more about winning votes
al F!NAL$T December 2011
Symbiosis Centre for Management and Human Resource Development Page 10
Greece Debt Crisis: Should India Reflect?
th this background, we now analyse major causes
of Greek crisis and whether India should reflect to
avoid similar crisis at home.
Greece economy emerged as a welfare state,
implementing populist policies rather than following
self sustaining business model. An automatic, indexed
salary instead of pay increases based on productivity,
the infamous 13th and 14th monthly salaries etc.
re some of the causes of high budget deficits.
Social democratic policies governed India's economy
from 1947 to 1991, characterized by extensive
regulation, protectionism, public ownership, pervasive
corruption and slow growth.
ing economic liberalization and
reforms have accelerated India's economic growth
and moved the country towards a market-based
However, even at present in India, like in Greece, the
ruling elite have their own welfare state, doling
s to win votes.
For example, India is trying to fight poverty through
National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme
(NREGA). This scheme is more about winning votes
-
Editorial F!NAL$T December 2011
Symbiosis Centre for Management and Human Resource Development Page 11
rather than empowering and preparing the poor for
the competitive job market.
2. Decline of Industry
Greece
Greece's main industries went into decline as labour
costs increased too fast for the industry to remain
competitive in Europe despite a significant rise in
worker productivity. There was also very little
modernization due to a lack of financing.
India
Outdated laws in India, help neither the workers nor
the business owners. On the part of business owners,
they feel the lack of flexibility and freedom to take
necessary timely action. Workers face red tape, lack of
transparency, denial of justice, unsafe working
conditions and lack of social security system for
workers in unorganized sector.
Labour and land acquisition disputes are on the rise.
Service industry is facing high attrition rate, rising
labour costs coupled with low quality of services. As is
evident by recent workers strike at Maruti Suzuki,
land acquisition issues for Tata Nano Project at Singur,
high demand for change of service provider in
telecommunication and lowering profits of IT
Companies.
With low priority to research and development, even
now, modernization is taking place mainly through
import of machinery and technical knowhow.
3. High Budget and Structural Deficit
Greece
The Greek economy was one of the fastest growing in
the euro zone from 2000 to 2007. A strong economy
and falling bond yields allowed the government of
Greece to run large structural deficits.
In May 2010, the Greek government deficit was
estimated to be 13.6% which is one of the highest in
the world relative to GDP.
The public finances had been fiddled: a budget deficit
of 3.7% of GDP was in fact touching 14%. This and
rising debt levels (127% of GDP in 2009) led to rising
borrowing costs, resulting in a severe economic crisis.
India
Gross Fiscal Deficit as a percentage of GDP
Source: RBI
Above trend reveals that fiscal deficit in India has a
tendency to rise, except for short intervals in
between. Government of India is expanding physical
infrastructure capacities, including connectivity in the
rural regions. In India inordinate delays and cost
overruns cause structural deficit to increase, adversely
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Editorial F!NAL$T December 2011
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impacting both the long and short-term growth
prospects of the economy.
The main factor accounting for the rise in the gross
fiscal deficit is increased revenue expenditure for both
the central and state governments, which has always
been a matter of concern with revenue expenditure
accounting for about 80% of total expenditures.
4. High Debt to GDP Ratio
Greece
During the 80s Greece suffered from poor
macroeconomic performance due to expansionary
fiscal policies that led to a tripling of the debt-to-GDP
ratio, which went from the modest figure of 34.5% in
1981 to 127% by the end of 2009 and 140% in 2010.
India
Debt of Indian Government as % of GDP
Year Combined Outstanding Liabilities
(Central and State Public Debt)
1998-99 56.0
1999-2000 63.2
20002001 70.6
20012002 76.0
20022003 80.2
20032004 81.4
20042005 81.3
20052006 80.3
20062007 77.3
20072008 75.1
20082009 72..7
Source: RBI
The above trend reveals that apart from some years
as exception the debt has been more than 70% of GDP
in India.
The ability to pay off its debt is measured by a
countrys debt relative to its GDP, referred to as its
debt-to-GDP ratio. If a countrys debt-to-GDP ratio
gets too high, investors will worry that the
government will either default on this debt, or will
deflate its value away by monetizing the debt and
thereby engineer a high inflation rate.
5. High Level of Corruption in Public Life,
High Degree of Tax Evasion
Greece
The Greek economy faces significant problems,
including rising unemployment, an inefficient
bureaucracy, tax evasion, high levels of political and
economic corruption and low global competitiveness.
Estimated tax evasion costs the Greek government
over $20 billion per year.
The real culprit is an institutionalized, broken system
and inefficient management of the public sector and
the overall revenue system. There is a mismatch as
regards money collected from taxes and public sector
services. It's a rift that is becoming wider and wider.
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India
Corruption has been one of the pervasive problems
affecting India. In India the size of black economy is
almost the same as that of white economy. It is
evident by the fact that thirteen successive rate hikes
by Reserve bank of India have failed to control the
demon of inflation, which stands at a high of
12%(CPI), because parallel economy that runs on
black money can never be impacted by such
measures, these measures are meant for countries
where economies are run in a transparent and clean
manner.
Indians have to put up with cumbersome and
inefficient bureaucracy, rampant corruption and
bribery at all levels, the licenses, red tape and scores
of other impediments in their day to day life.
Conclusion
The similarities between reasons of crisis in Greece
and the manner in which India is governed are too
stark to be overlooked. It is wise to remember the fact
that India had faced similar crisis that forced it to
mortgage part of its gold reserves only a little over
two decades ago.
Indians are resilient, hardworking and honest with a
bright future provided they tackle the demon of
corruption and bribery, bad rules and processes which
not only lead to persistent distortions, hold back
foreign investment but also systematically diminish
economic growth.
To quote Greek MP Elena Panaritis A solution to all
the problems can only be found if the formal economy
becomes simple, predictable and, therefore, easy to
track. Any rules must, at long last, be applied even-
handedly, with appropriate pricing of risk and minimal
informational asymmetry, which usually benefits
those who have accumulated considerable economic
power and thus stifles innovation, risk-taking and
entrepreneurship.
Ishan Vijayvergiya
MBA I
Editorial F!NAL$T December 2
Symbiosis Centre for Management and Human Resource Development
Should Government
For
There is a political game being played on the question
of bailing out Kingfisher airlines. Left, as usual, does
not like private players and if we had their rule, we
would not be using same old Ambassador Car. BJP and
certain sections of Congress too are
support the cash strapped airline.
There is a misconception that airline industry is
maintained by private players and government has no
role in its further development. This is not true as
airline industry is still growing and lot of refor
including FDI in airline are waiting at the door.
Government charges heavily on the Aviation Turbine
Fuel (ATF) and other taxes.
The question is not only of Kingfisher, Jet Airlines
posted heavy loss and it is better not to speak of Air
India. The aviation industry greatly needs a
government boost for the development of our middle
class population needs. Today airline travel has
become possible for middle class people due to
private players coming in providing healthy
competition to keep rates down and better service.
As per data available from the internet, the US civil
aviation industry directly creates 4.2 million jobs in
the airline, travel and tourism sectors. Its contribution
al F!NAL$T December 2
Symbiosis Centre for Management and Human Resource Development
Finalyst Debate:
Should Government bailout Kingfisher
There is a political game being played on the question
of bailing out Kingfisher airlines. Left, as usual, does
not like private players and if we had their rule, we
would not be using same old Ambassador Car. BJP and
certain sections of Congress too are unwilling to
There is a misconception that airline industry is
maintained by private players and government has no
role in its further development. This is not true as
airline industry is still growing and lot of reforms
including FDI in airline are waiting at the door.
Government charges heavily on the Aviation Turbine
The question is not only of Kingfisher, Jet Airlines
posted heavy loss and it is better not to speak of Air
ation industry greatly needs a
government boost for the development of our middle
class population needs. Today airline travel has
become possible for middle class people due to
private players coming in providing healthy
better service.
As per data available from the internet, the US civil
aviation industry directly creates 4.2 million jobs in
the airline, travel and tourism sectors. Its contribution
to the US GDP is nearly 9%. India needs to develop the
airline industry for business and tourism. The aviation
sector growth is indirectly the growth of our economy
and it is a part of infrastructure development of our
country. Government should encourage private sector
by providing assistance to them in every form
possible.
Against
As per the view of Rahul Bajaj, If it's a free market
economy, those who die must die. There is no point
in bailing out a company in a free market economy as
a business fails only if it is not viable. Government
should not put the taxman mon
business which is already in pathetic condition.
Various countries are suffering by putting money in
bad investment and hence making the citizens of the
country poorer.
According to some industry experts, As the old
adage goes, you have to cut your coat according to
the cloth, and if private airlines began flying even
before they could walk, they have to pay the price.
They found it profitable when the going was good and
there were fewer competitors. Now the competition
has increased and you have to revamp your financial
models.
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Kingfisher?
to the US GDP is nearly 9%. India needs to develop the
ry for business and tourism. The aviation
sector growth is indirectly the growth of our economy
and it is a part of infrastructure development of our
country. Government should encourage private sector
by providing assistance to them in every form
As per the view of Rahul Bajaj, If it's a free market
economy, those who die must die. There is no point
in bailing out a company in a free market economy as
a business fails only if it is not viable. Government
should not put the taxman money in such a bad
business which is already in pathetic condition.
Various countries are suffering by putting money in
bad investment and hence making the citizens of the
According to some industry experts, As the old
to cut your coat according to
the cloth, and if private airlines began flying even
before they could walk, they have to pay the price.
They found it profitable when the going was good and
there were fewer competitors. Now the competition
you have to revamp your financial
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Editorial F!NAL$T December 2011
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There are some opinions that if government wants to
put money in airline, they must put in the national
carrier Air India. Also the bailout is economically
irrational as the economy is slowing down and
inflation is very high. Vijay Mallya, owner of Kingfisher
Airlines, has an image of flamboyancy and is chairman
of UB group. So why should government infuse money
in pockets of such a business men.
Various political parties and major sections of
government excluding our PM are opposing a single
penny of bailout to Kingfisher and they are justifiably
right. In a free market economy, government should
not save a company; else many companies would
demand the same.
Editorial F!NAL$T December 2
Symbiosis Centre for Management and Human Resource Development
Financial Inclusion: Dream yet to be realised
Financial Inclusion is the delivery of banking services
at an affordable cost to disadvantaged and low
income groups. In reality it includes loans,
services, credit and debit cards access, overdraft
facility, cheque facility etc. But in India it means
having a saving or current account with any bank.
According to the Index of Financial Inclusion which is
used to find out the extent of reach
services, India has been ranked 50 among 100
countries. Only 34% of Indian individuals have access
to banking services. In order to raise this number the
RBI and the Government of India has taken innovative
steps. To make sure that the banking s
available to the poor new branches of Regional Rural
Banks are being opened.
In 2004, Reserve Bank of India has set up a
commission (Khan Commission) to look into aspects of
financial inclusion and the recommendations were
incorporated into the mid-term review of the policy
al F!NAL$T December 2
Symbiosis Centre for Management and Human Resource Development
Financial Inclusion: Dream yet to be realised
Financial Inclusion is the delivery of banking services
at an affordable cost to disadvantaged and low-
income groups. In reality it includes loans, insurance
services, credit and debit cards access, overdraft
facility, cheque facility etc. But in India it means
having a saving or current account with any bank.
According to the Index of Financial Inclusion which is
used to find out the extent of reach of banking
services, India has been ranked 50 among 100
countries. Only 34% of Indian individuals have access
to banking services. In order to raise this number the
RBI and the Government of India has taken innovative
steps. To make sure that the banking service is
available to the poor new branches of Regional Rural
In 2004, Reserve Bank of India has set up a
commission (Khan Commission) to look into aspects of
financial inclusion and the recommendations were
term review of the policy
(2005-06). With the instruction from RBI, banks are
now offering No Frill Accounts to low income
groups. The individual bank has the authority to
decide whether the account should have minimum or
zero balance. With the comb
banks and financial institutions, six million new 'No
Frill' accounts were opened in the period between
March 2006-2007. Banks are now considering
financial inclusion as a business opportunity in an
overall environment that leads
Financial inclusion mainly helps the poor in getting
them out of the clutches of local money lenders by
providing them formal financial institutional support.
As a first step towards this, some of our banks are
offering general purpose credit ca
credit cards which offer small loans without any
collateral security. The RBI has simplified the KYC
(Know your customer) norms for opening a 'No frill'
account. Now a low income individual can open a 'No
Frill' account without identity pro
proof.
Banks are now permitted to use the services of NGOs,
SHGs and other civil society organizations as
intermediaries in providing financial and banking
services. These intermediaries could be used as
business facilitators (BF) or busines
(BC) by commercial banks.
RBI has asked the commercial banks to start a 100%
financial inclusion campaign on a pilot basis in
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Financial Inclusion: Dream yet to be realised
06). With the instruction from RBI, banks are
now offering No Frill Accounts to low income
groups. The individual bank has the authority to
decide whether the account should have minimum or
zero balance. With the combined effort of commercial
banks and financial institutions, six million new 'No
Frill' accounts were opened in the period between
2007. Banks are now considering
financial inclusion as a business opportunity in an
overall environment that leads to growth.
Financial inclusion mainly helps the poor in getting
them out of the clutches of local money lenders by
providing them formal financial institutional support.
As a first step towards this, some of our banks are
offering general purpose credit cards and artisan
credit cards which offer small loans without any
collateral security. The RBI has simplified the KYC
(Know your customer) norms for opening a 'No frill'
account. Now a low income individual can open a 'No
Frill' account without identity proof and address
Banks are now permitted to use the services of NGOs,
SHGs and other civil society organizations as
intermediaries in providing financial and banking
services. These intermediaries could be used as
business facilitators (BF) or business correspondents
(BC) by commercial banks.
RBI has asked the commercial banks to start a 100%
financial inclusion campaign on a pilot basis in
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Editorial F!NAL$T December 2011
Symbiosis Centre for Management and Human Resource Development Page 17
different regions. As a result, states and union
territories like Pondicherry, Himachal Pradesh and
Kerala have declared 100% financial inclusion in all
their districts. Mangalam Village in Pondicherry
became the first village in India where all households
were provided banking facilities. Reserve Bank of
India's vision for 2020 is to open nearly 600 million
new customers' accounts.
Yet, the dream of financial inclusion has not been
fulfilled. The main reason is that the products
designed by the banks are not satisfying the low
income families. The provision of simple, small and
affordable products will help to bring the low income
families into the formal financial sector. Banks have
limitations to reach directly to the low income
consumers. Correspondents can be considered to be
an excellent channel which banks can use to distribute
their product information. Educating the consumers
about the products of banks and their financial
benefits will be a great step to tap their potential.
Banks are now using new technologies like mobile
phones to reach low income consumers. It is possible
that the telephone providers themselves will start
basic banking services like savings account and
payments. Indian telecom consumers have few links
to financial institutions. So without much difficulty
telecom providers can win the battle with banks.
Banks should therefore be proactive about using this
opportunity.
Financial inclusion is a great step to alleviate poverty
in India. But to achieve this, the government should
provide a conducive environment in which banks are
free to pursue the innovations necessary to reach low
income consumers and still make a profit. Financial
service providers should learn more about the
consumers and new business models to reach them.
In advanced economies, Financial Inclusion is more
about the knowledge of fair and transparent financial
products and a focus on financial literacy. In emerging
economies, it is a question of both access to financial
products and knowledge about their fairness and
transparency.
Neha Agarwal
MBA I
Editorial F!NAL$T December 2011
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Bush vs. Obama: The Mighty vs. the Charismatic
There has always been policy and thought difference
between the Republicans and the Democrats in the
US. It has been a belief that Republicans are best for
the US economy but facts have been hinting
otherwise. According to the university of Nevada-
Reno economics, from a period of 1949 to 2005:
The Average unemployment rate under the
Republicans was 6.0% while that under the
Democrats was 5.2%
The growth in Unemployment rate under the
Republicans was 0.3% and under the
Democrats was 0.4%
The corporate profits as a share of GDP were
8.8% for the Republicans and 10.2% for the
Democrats
The CPI inflation rate was same for both
standing at 3.8%.
According to the studies the US economy has grown
significantly faster under the Democrats as compared
to the Republicans. We continue speculating these
differences in the 21st century as well when Obama
replaced Bush, a few years ago, to bring economic
reforms to a country going through a phase of war
followed by recession.
US economy has undergone a series of rise and fall
from the period between 2001, when Bush took over
the administration, to 2011, when Obama stands as
the president. Reign of George W. Bush which started
with a period of recession witnessed increase in tax
expenditure, agricultural subsidies, oil prices and
expenditure on Iraq war. With a trade deficit of nearly
$850 billion and arguments over how to spend the
budget, it became visible that money was being used
where it was not required. Obama's presidency also
started with a recession and saw a stimulus package
to counter the crisis and higher emphasis on health
care reforms. Obama's entry into the White House
was looked upon as a hope to pass by the era of
recession but the progress is slow and he is still not
able to win the confidence of a US citizen.
The economic policies under Bush were initially aimed
at combating recession through tax cuts to boost
spending. President Bush had raised tax cuts of about
$2.4 trillion during his tenure out of which $474 billion
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Editorial F!NAL$T December 2011
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came from the first four years of his term. While
President Obama had cut taxes by $654 billion in the
year 2011 and 2012 plan by signing major tax cutting
legislations like the American Recovery and
Reinvestment Act , Tax Relief, Unemployment
Insurance Reauthorization and Job Creation Act of
2010. Although the tax cuts by Obama in 2 years are
much more than tax cuts by Bush in his first four
years, Bush's tax cuts still appear to be massive
because of two reasons. Firstly, Obama's tax cuts are
targeted to the middle class people. It goes to the
bottom of the 80% US households. While the tax cuts
by Bush were targeted to the 20% of the rich
population of the country. Secondly, the tax cuts
provided by President Obama are temporary and the
impacts of the tax cuts provided by President Bush
have a higher cost as compared to Obama and are
recurrent in nature. The tax cuts provided by Obama
will eventually expire in the course of a decade and
hence the tax cuts provided by Bush appear to be
more massive.
After the 9/11 attack in US the spending was focused
on war and the defence expenditure rose. The 9/11
attack in US aggravated the effect of recession on
business in US, hence Bush came up with more tax
cuts to help in recovery. People had seen the rise and
fall of home loans and mortgages in this period. Bush
did not respond to the Subprime Mortgage Crisis and
passed it on to Obama. When Obama took over with a
$787 million economic stimulus package, there was a
positive growth seen in the economy. He stressed on
the health care reforms and reduced the cost of
health care. In response to the mortgage crisis,
Obama regulated the non-banking financial
companies and included the Consumer Financial
Protection Agency to protect consumers with credit
cards and debit cards from frauds.
Doubts on US economic stability have also been raised
again with the US falling into a debt crisis. Despite
efforts from both the parties during their respective
regimes, the US debt burden is getting heavier with
each passing day. Critics doubt the various policies
introduced by Obama and the explosive rate at which
Obama is increasing the debt. They believe that while
Bush was fast in raising the debt, Obama might be
uncontrollable.
The debt history goes way back to the time before the
great depression. During the great depression US
budget started to rise under democratic president
Franklin Roosevelt. After the great depression during
the time when Hassry.S.Trueman, a democrat,
became the president, US had no debt but surplus.
Debt started rising when Ronal Regan raised a $2342
of debt, followed by George.H.W.Bush, both
Republicans, raised a debt of $1494. Bill Clinton
slowed the debt growth by increasing the debt by only
$858 during his period as compared to George Bush
Editorial F!NAL$T December 2011
Symbiosis Centre for Management and Human Resource Development Page 20
who had raised a debt of $2989 by the year 2009.
While Bush was spending lavishly, Obama's
expenditure is explosively high and is projected to be
up to $9979 in the year 2016. This high amount of
debt is due to the stimulus spending, non defence
spending, tax cuts and healthcare reforms. Apart from
this, unemployment has increased from 4.5% in 2001
to 9% in 2011 and income inequality is also on a rise.
While critics might believe that Obama is to be
blamed, what they seem to ignore is that the debt of
2009 was inherited by Obama. Debt ceiling is not just
being raised because of the new policies that Obama
is introducing but because of the existing policies that
had been existing since a decade. Although Obama's
healthcare plan is looked upon as an extra cost to the
budget, but the Congressional Budget Office (CBO)
analysis states that it could actually reduce the
deficits. The healthcare plan has been implemented to
curtail the spending and save the cost going into
wastage and fraud. Unemployment and inequality are
a by product of economic downturn. While the effects
of the expenditures made by Bush were recurring, the
impact of Obama's expenditure on the deficit are said
to be temporary and will eventually reduce the US
deficit.
While Obama brings on economic reforms and
massive tax cuts, the rising debt issue still makes his
position weak in the US. The impact of the policy
changes brought by Obama in the US economy may
be visible late in time. Although agencies like CBO and
Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT) says that the policy
will help reduce the deficit, but the US citizens and
critics are apprehensive about the future of the
country and the claims made by the Democrats. Thus
it might just be too late for the Democrats till the next
elections to keep a strong stand if the impact of the
policy does not subdue the economic down turn and
the current situation prevails. But at the same time,
the act of Republicans does not seem to have
impressed the voters. Hence, whether the country
votes for the incumbent party or demands a change of
regime depends on how soon Obama reaps the fruits
of his policies and expenditure on the same.
Rishu Sukhija
MBA I
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Editorial F!NAL$T December 2
Symbiosis Centre for Management and Human Resource Development
The Beleaguered Rupee
"Currency trading is unnecessary, unproductive, and
immoral!!"- Dr. Mahathir Mohammed, ex Prime
Minister of Malaysia. He further said "It should be
stopped. It should be made illegal!"
The Malaysian currency Ringgit was at its lowest point
during 1997 and these words were spoken at the IMF
and World Bank conference in Hong Kong. The Prime
Minister of Malaysia obviously credited the currency
traders (read speculators) for this.
Some of the Indian politicians must be echoing the
same sentiments at the moment.
The Indian Rupee has depreciated by about 22 per
cent in four months from Rs. 43.95 in July to
Rs.53.72 on December 14, this is the worst
performance by any currency in the region during this
period.
The immediate question that arises is what is to be
blamed for this crisis that we are in. The forex market
explains that importers went complacent with the
appreciation of rupee earlier in this year, they
al F!NAL$T December 2
Symbiosis Centre for Management and Human Resource Development
The Beleaguered Rupee-Still Bearish?
trading is unnecessary, unproductive, and
Dr. Mahathir Mohammed, ex Prime
Minister of Malaysia. He further said "It should be
The Malaysian currency Ringgit was at its lowest point
rds were spoken at the IMF
and World Bank conference in Hong Kong. The Prime
Minister of Malaysia obviously credited the currency
Some of the Indian politicians must be echoing the
The Indian Rupee has depreciated by about 22 per
from Rs. 43.95 in July to
Rs.53.72 on December 14, this is the worst
performance by any currency in the region during this
The immediate question that arises is what is to be
lamed for this crisis that we are in. The forex market
explains that importers went complacent with the
appreciation of rupee earlier in this year, they
couldnt anticipate the rupee depreciation and they
are more or less covering their exposure now that t
in a great rush, therefore driving the currency prices
up. Exporters on the other hand are said to be sticking
with investments hoping for a revival in the currency.
Speculators take these opportunities to cash in some
money. But not all the blame shoul
currency traders. Speculators in a way realize profits
through trading currencies similar to the way one
would trade commodities. They treat currency as a
commodity. While currency traders can certainly
cause temporary currency fluctuations,
with a strong economy and underlying fundamentals
will be immune to major fluctuations out of
speculation.
The question that arises is how strong is our
economy? Do the currency prices truly reflect our
economys fundamentals?
A combination of domestic and global factors along
with policy paralysis appears to be behind the free fall
of the rupee.
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Still Bearish?
couldnt anticipate the rupee depreciation and they
are more or less covering their exposure now that too
in a great rush, therefore driving the currency prices
up. Exporters on the other hand are said to be sticking
with investments hoping for a revival in the currency.
Speculators take these opportunities to cash in some
money. But not all the blame should be placed on
currency traders. Speculators in a way realize profits
through trading currencies similar to the way one
would trade commodities. They treat currency as a
commodity. While currency traders can certainly
cause temporary currency fluctuations, but a country
with a strong economy and underlying fundamentals
will be immune to major fluctuations out of
The question that arises is how strong is our
economy? Do the currency prices truly reflect our
economys fundamentals?
of domestic and global factors along
with policy paralysis appears to be behind the free fall
Editorial F!NAL$T December 2011
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Domestic economy growth slumped to 6.9 per cent in
Q2 of 2011-12 from 7.7 per cent in Q1 of 2011-12 and
8.8 per cent in the corresponding quarter in 2010-11.
This was largely due to moderation of industrial
growth. The IIP index showed a decline of 5.1 per
cent, year on year, in October 2011.
India was supposed to be immune to global
downturns but things have certainly changed or at
least it looks so at this moment. The global scenario
doesnt look that impressive, Q3 euro area growth, at
0.8 per cent, is worrying and 2012 growth is now
expected to be weaker than earlier projected as
reports suggest. Even the recent European Union (EU)
summit (December 8-9) agreement could not cool
down negative market sentiments.
And then, there is the turbulence in the global
financial markets and the strange plight of funds
towards the US dollar despite the troubles in the U.S.
economy. The markets obviously believe that the
dollar is a safe asset now. Quite strange these markets
are!
Inflation has been hovering at over 8 per cent for
most part of the last two years and strangely, the
Rupee was quite steady and even appreciated to
some extent, Rupee was steady at around 44.5 per
dollar for most part of last year. Rising inflation gives
rise to currency depreciation thats what economics
suggest. Probably this was about to happen, which
unfortunately not many people could foresee.
The Reserve Bank of India has thought of not
interfering with the free market except a few symbolic
operations given the country's foreign exchange
reserves of $306 billion. Two years back after the
Lehman fall the Rupee had depreciated to 51.25
(around 19%). The RBI that time resorted to
aggressive selling of Dollar, it sold around $18.67
billion in the month of October 2008 and continued to
sell dollars till March 2009.During this period, and it
sold a total of around $25.27 billion in the open
market, at prices varying from Rs 49.78 to Rs 52.61.
The RBI that time was able to deal with such a
situation as it had bought $ 78.203 billion from the
market at an average price of Rs 39.90/dollar during
the financial year 2007-08. The RBI ultimately made a
profit of around 38000 crores on these transactions,
but that is a different matter altogether.
The rupee gained 94 paisa on 16th December, because
of some qualitative measures taken by RBI such as
issuing certain new guidelines on forward markets in
foreign exchange. This move is to curb speculation on
the Indian rupee. RBI banned rebooking of cancelled
forward contracts; put limits on hedging based on
past performance and reduced net overnight open
position limits (NOOPLs) of authorised dealer banks.
The affect was seen in the NDF markets in Singapore
and Dubai. This move is certainly going to cool down
the pressure on rupee in the short term but in the
long term unless the macroeconomic numbers
improve the rupee wont strengthen.
In its mid-quarter monetary policy review, RBI said
that the rupee depreciated mainly because of a
widening trade deficit and the rupee is going to be
under further stress. It is highly unlikely that the
macro economic conditions are going to improve in
the coming months; there is high possibility of further
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Symbiosis Centre for Management and Human Resource Development Page 23
depreciation of rupee. Export industries such as IT,
gems and jewellery and textiles will benefit from that,
but that too in the short term till prices adjust. But the
depreciating rupee puts a lot of pressure on the
import bill of the country and the end users
(consumers) feel the heat ultimately.
There are several other factors to assuage the
negative sentiments around the Rupee.
Total external debt maturing within the next year
(both short term debt and long term debt) is about
137 billion USD, 43.5 % of Indias total foreign
currency reserve. Sizeable portion of this debt is
financed by European banks (as reported by The
Hindu-Business Line). So there is doubt whether these
banks would re-finance these debts.
With the spread between the RBI repo rate and Fed
rate reaching the highest level in recent history some
of the corporates have converted their Rupee liability
into Dollar liability. (Business Line)
India is a net importer with majority contributions
from oil imports. Rupee depreciating further poses a
real challenge to the balance of payments.
RBIs ability to intervene like the post Lehman
depreciation is also very limited as RBI is running tight
on the currency reserves in terms of import cover.
(Import cover of 8-9 months)
So what can be done now to check further
depreciation of Rupee? Some argue that The RBI
should have announced measures and policies to halt
the rupee depreciation without waiting for long. But
RBI cannot be blamed solely for this. Lot of reforms is
now long overdue. India should have relaxed foreign
investments in retail, insurance, pension, defense,
aviation and a host of other sectors. Some of these
reforms have been pending for nearly a decade. This
way India could have attracted a lot of FDI.
Government Infrastructure projects are also needs a
push. Currently there is no good news about
economic reforms; perhaps India needs a political
change to gain investor confidence.
Sudip Bain
MBA I
Editorial F!NAL$T December 2011
Symbiosis Centre for Management and Human Resource Development Page 24
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Editorial F!NAL$T December 2011
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Finance Club
The Finance Club of Symbiosis Centre of Management & HRD is a student initiative which started in 2005. The
Finance Club functions as the interface between the student community and the financial world. Its objective is to
enable prolific interactions among the student community, coupled with valuable inputs from the faculty, the
academia and representatives from the industry. The club provides a platform for all students to come together and
explore the field of finance, leading to awareness amongst students with respect to the current financial aspects
surrounding the economy and the industry.
Activities of the Finance Club:
Finalyst: The bi-monthly magazine published by the Finance Club, contains concise and in-depth analysis of
emerging trends in the area of finance. Articles are written by students and eminent corporate personnel. It
has a circulation of more than 2500 copies covering corporate, alumni and India's top 30 B-schools.
Knowledge Series: The Finance Club comes out with a monthly Knowledge Series which equips layman to
understand basic financial terms. It is an initiative to increase financial awareness and make various financial
aspects in a simple, lucid and understandable manner.
Bizfluence: An informal discussion on Pink Paper
Pre Budget and Post Budget Analysis: An annual effort by the students at the Centre that involves
publication of the Annual Budget both before and after the formal Budget speech.
Events:
Past Events:
First Academic Summit on Valuation and Financial Modelling - Nov 2010
Integrated Risk Management Seminar-2009
Banking Conclave-2005
Upcoming Event:
Research Seminar on Commodity Market-18th Feb2012 at Mumbai
Editorial F!NAL$T December 2011
Symbiosis Centre for Management and Human Resource Development Page 26
TEAM FINALYST
SENIOR MEMBERS
Abhishek Maheshwari
Anshul Sood
Charul Mahajan
Samira Vemparala
Sumit Dawra
JUNIOR MEMBERS
Anshu Saboo
Jimit Shah
Ravi Matalia
Saurabh Singhania
Sudip Bain
Surbhi Bhandari
Taha Lanewala
Contact Us:
Finance Club, SCMHRD
+91 7709079996
Fax: +91-020-22934306
email: [email protected]
web: www.scmhrd.edu
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Human Resource Development
(An ISO 9001-2000 Quality Systems Certified
Management Institute)
(Constituent of Symbiosis International University)
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