december finalyst2011

13
Economy F!NAL¥$T December 2011 Symbiosis Centre for Management and Human Resource Development Page 1 About SCMHRD Economy F!NAL¥$T December 2011 Symbiosis Centre for Management and Human Resource Development Page 2 About SCMHRD Leadership-Entrepreneurship B-School SCMHRD was established in 1993. Ever since its inception, SCMHRD has strived to bring Indian ethos, Management concepts and technological advances together in an effort to redefine the management paradigm in the new age. SCMHRD has successfully pioneered the implementation of Kaizen on campus. The practice helps in keeping the campus clean and gives the students a feeling of ownership, inculcating in them a feeling of belonging and camaraderie. The SCMHRD culture provides the students an environment that allows them to think and reflect, to explore and express. Vision To become a Centre of Excellence for Global leadership and entrepreneurship, the standards of which others are measured by. Mission To create leaders and entrepreneurs of tomorrow, their dedication to excellence, absolute. SCMHRD was established in 1993. Ever since its inception, SCMHRD has strived to bring Indian ethos, Management concepts and technological advances together in an effort to redefine the management paradigm in the new age.

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Finalyst Magazine of Finance Club of SCMHRD

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  • Economy F!NAL$T December 2011

    Symbiosis Centre for Management and Human Resource Development Page 1

    About SCMHRD

    Economy F!NAL$T December 2011

    Symbiosis Centre for Management and Human Resource Development Page 2

    About SCMHRD

    Leadership-Entrepreneurship B-School

    SCMHRD was established in 1993. Ever since its inception, SCMHRD has strived to bring Indian ethos, Management

    concepts and technological advances together in an effort to redefine the management paradigm in the new age.

    SCMHRD has successfully pioneered the implementation of Kaizen on campus. The practice helps in keeping the

    campus clean and gives the students a feeling of ownership, inculcating in them a feeling of belonging and

    camaraderie. The SCMHRD culture provides the students an environment that allows them to think and reflect, to

    explore and express.

    Vision

    To become a Centre of Excellence for Global leadership and entrepreneurship, the standards of which others are

    measured by.

    Mission

    To create leaders and entrepreneurs of tomorrow, their dedication to excellence, absolute. SCMHRD was established

    in 1993. Ever since its inception, SCMHRD has strived to bring Indian ethos, Management concepts and technological

    advances together in an effort to redefine the management paradigm in the new age.

  • Economy F!NAL$T Decemb

    Symbiosis Centre for Management and Human Resource Development

    From the Editor

    Dear Readers,

    The world has changed a lot from the days of Bretton Woods. We need to catch up

    Euro zone's debt crisis is quivering the global economy and breakup of currency zone can no longer be ruled out.

    America's jobless rate passes 10%. Not so pretty picture of India shows Indian rupee hitting a historic low of

    against a US Dollar. Fear of inflation is flaming up as oil imports become costlier. SBI credit rating downgrade by

    Moody's indicates volatility and uncertain conditions.

    Other important tidings in financial world are drawing the curtains on administer

    interest rate on saving accounts. RBI also decided to reduce the validity of cheques and bank drafts from present 6

    months to 3 months beginning next fiscal year.

    Does not quench your news thirst?

    Read our December e-issue which features drawing parallels bet

    an interesting read. In this issue we scratch the controversial topic of black box trading. Imagine the robots taking

    over the world! However, the cream of the pi

    Other riveting articles include Financial Inclusion and where India is heading.

    If this smorgasbord of articles proves informative and insightful, press the 'Like' button on 'Finance Club at

    page. We would eagerly wait for your valuable suggestions and feedback. We also seek your support and zeal for the

    upcoming Research Seminar on Commodity Market in association with MCX and FMC on 18th Feb'12 at Mumbai.

    Happy Reading!!

    Inside the Issue

    Where is our Economy heading?

    Crossword

    Black Box in the Financial Market

    Greece Debt Crisis: Should India Reflect?

    Finalyst Debate: Should Kingfisher be bailed out by Government?

    Financial Inclusion: Dream yet to be Realised

    Bush vs. Obama: The Mighty vs. the Charisma

    The Beleaguered Rupee- still bearish?

    Economy F!NAL$T Decemb

    Symbiosis Centre for Management and Human Resource Development

    The world has changed a lot from the days of Bretton Woods. We need to catch up too.

    Euro zone's debt crisis is quivering the global economy and breakup of currency zone can no longer be ruled out.

    America's jobless rate passes 10%. Not so pretty picture of India shows Indian rupee hitting a historic low of

    against a US Dollar. Fear of inflation is flaming up as oil imports become costlier. SBI credit rating downgrade by

    Moody's indicates volatility and uncertain conditions.

    Other important tidings in financial world are drawing the curtains on administered lending rates i.e. deregulation of

    interest rate on saving accounts. RBI also decided to reduce the validity of cheques and bank drafts from present 6

    months to 3 months beginning next fiscal year.

    issue which features drawing parallels between Greece and India. Bush

    an interesting read. In this issue we scratch the controversial topic of black box trading. Imagine the robots taking

    over the world! However, the cream of the pie is debate on whether the government should bail out Kingfisher.

    Other riveting articles include Financial Inclusion and where India is heading.

    If this smorgasbord of articles proves informative and insightful, press the 'Like' button on 'Finance Club at

    page. We would eagerly wait for your valuable suggestions and feedback. We also seek your support and zeal for the

    upcoming Research Seminar on Commodity Market in association with MCX and FMC on 18th Feb'12 at Mumbai.

    Greece Debt Crisis: Should India Reflect?

    Finalyst Debate: Should Kingfisher be bailed out by Government?

    ream yet to be Realised

    Charismatic

    Economy F!NAL$T December 2011

    Symbiosis Centre for Management and Human Resource Development Page 3

    Euro zone's debt crisis is quivering the global economy and breakup of currency zone can no longer be ruled out.

    America's jobless rate passes 10%. Not so pretty picture of India shows Indian rupee hitting a historic low of 54.19

    against a US Dollar. Fear of inflation is flaming up as oil imports become costlier. SBI credit rating downgrade by

    ed lending rates i.e. deregulation of

    interest rate on saving accounts. RBI also decided to reduce the validity of cheques and bank drafts from present 6

    ween Greece and India. Bush vs. Obama is definitely

    an interesting read. In this issue we scratch the controversial topic of black box trading. Imagine the robots taking

    e is debate on whether the government should bail out Kingfisher.

    If this smorgasbord of articles proves informative and insightful, press the 'Like' button on 'Finance Club at SCMHRD'

    page. We would eagerly wait for your valuable suggestions and feedback. We also seek your support and zeal for the

    upcoming Research Seminar on Commodity Market in association with MCX and FMC on 18th Feb'12 at Mumbai.

    4

    6

    7

    10

    14

    16

    18

    21

    Economy F!NAL$T Decemb

    Symbiosis Centre for Management and Human Resource Development

    Where is our Economy Heading?

    20 years ago, by breaking government control over

    the economy, opening up Indian markets to foreign

    investment, easing trade, devaluing the rupee, Dr

    Manmohan Singh dismantled, in one go, the walls

    between the sluggish, protected, conserved economy

    of socialist India and the rest of the world. "I do not

    minimize the difficulties that lie ahead on the long and

    arduous journey on which we have embarked," Singh

    said at the conclusion of his speech. "But as Victor

    Hugo once said, 'No power on Earth can stop an idea

    whose time has come.' I suggest to this August House

    that the emergence of India as a major economic

    power in the world happens to be one such idea."

    While much has been achieved in 20 years, unfinished

    agenda is huge.

    While we celebrate 20 years of liberalization of

    economy, our economy is going through some

    troubled times. Recently, Moody's downgraded the

    entire Indian banking system outlook from 'stable' to

    'negative' citing the slowing of economy and an

    increase in nonperforming assets (NPAs). Earlier in

    September, it downgraded India's largest public and

    most trusted nationalized bank SBI by one notch over

    deteriorating capital ratio and poor asset quality.

    Inflation figures have rocketed to double digits, with

    food inflation topping at 12.21% in the last week of

    October. Fuel prices have been hiked twice in the last

    two months. Rupee is depreciating continuously,

    although it helps exports boom. The political drama in

    Italy and Greece is nearing doom for Euro and sending

    Economy F!NAL$T Decemb

    Symbiosis Centre for Management and Human Resource Development

    Where is our Economy Heading?

    breaking government control over

    the economy, opening up Indian markets to foreign

    investment, easing trade, devaluing the rupee, Dr

    Manmohan Singh dismantled, in one go, the walls

    between the sluggish, protected, conserved economy

    he rest of the world. "I do not

    minimize the difficulties that lie ahead on the long and

    arduous journey on which we have embarked," Singh

    said at the conclusion of his speech. "But as Victor

    Hugo once said, 'No power on Earth can stop an idea

    as come.' I suggest to this August House

    that the emergence of India as a major economic

    power in the world happens to be one such idea."

    While much has been achieved in 20 years, unfinished

    While we celebrate 20 years of liberalization of Indian

    economy, our economy is going through some

    troubled times. Recently, Moody's downgraded the

    entire Indian banking system outlook from 'stable' to

    'negative' citing the slowing of economy and an

    assets (NPAs). Earlier in

    September, it downgraded India's largest public and

    most trusted nationalized bank SBI by one notch over

    deteriorating capital ratio and poor asset quality.

    Inflation figures have rocketed to double digits, with

    pping at 12.21% in the last week of

    October. Fuel prices have been hiked twice in the last

    two months. Rupee is depreciating continuously,

    although it helps exports boom. The political drama in

    Italy and Greece is nearing doom for Euro and sending

    panic throughout the world, including India. RBI raised

    interest rates for the 13th time since early 2010 to

    tackle inflation, which unfortunately is like a wild

    elephant out on a rampage to disrupt the entire

    economic balance. The Index of Industrial Production

    hit a low of 1.9% and is continuously decreasing from

    the past three months. Add to these woes, the policy

    paralysis of Government and you find our country is in

    more dire state. Is the ground condition so bad? Let

    us analyze the situation and try to antici

    future growth of our economy.

    Moody's downgraded the Indian banks as it warned of

    slowing growth hitting asset quality, capitalization and

    profitability. However Standard and Poor contrasted

    the views of Moody's and upgraded the Indian

    banking sector due to robustness of economy and

    control over monetary policies. "India's banking

    system has a high level of stable, core customer

    deposits, which limit dependence on external

    borrowing. The government is likely to provide timely

    financial support to the banking system, if needed," it

    said. But the point of concern in the balance sheet of

    banks is the increase in Non Performing Assets (NPA)

    up to 5 lakh crores approximately. While the private

    sector banks have decreased lending due to the

    economic downturn, public sector banks have

    continued their aggressive lending as a deliberate

    policy choice; of opting to keep bank lending going

    (against commercial sense) in the hope that it would

    help shore up economic growth. There are some

    Economy F!NAL$T December 2011

    Symbiosis Centre for Management and Human Resource Development Page 4

    Where is our Economy Heading?

    roughout the world, including India. RBI raised

    interest rates for the 13th time since early 2010 to

    tackle inflation, which unfortunately is like a wild

    elephant out on a rampage to disrupt the entire

    economic balance. The Index of Industrial Production

    it a low of 1.9% and is continuously decreasing from

    the past three months. Add to these woes, the policy

    paralysis of Government and you find our country is in

    more dire state. Is the ground condition so bad? Let

    us analyze the situation and try to anticipate the

    future growth of our economy.

    Moody's downgraded the Indian banks as it warned of

    slowing growth hitting asset quality, capitalization and

    profitability. However Standard and Poor contrasted

    the views of Moody's and upgraded the Indian

    tor due to robustness of economy and

    control over monetary policies. "India's banking

    system has a high level of stable, core customer

    deposits, which limit dependence on external

    borrowing. The government is likely to provide timely

    he banking system, if needed," it

    said. But the point of concern in the balance sheet of

    banks is the increase in Non Performing Assets (NPA)

    up to 5 lakh crores approximately. While the private

    sector banks have decreased lending due to the

    urn, public sector banks have

    continued their aggressive lending as a deliberate

    policy choice; of opting to keep bank lending going

    (against commercial sense) in the hope that it would

    help shore up economic growth. There are some

  • Editorial F!NAL$T December 2011

    Symbiosis Centre for Management and Human Resource Development Page 5

    groups of people who believe that the management

    of all banks has been manipulating the figures of bad

    debts in a close nexus with the officials of RBI, while

    the banks defend themselves saying that the funds

    have been given for infrastructure development

    projects especially power (state electricity boards)

    and realty sector and the money would return back

    and so they are not included in bad debts calculations.

    Also the banks feel that higher interest rates and slow

    revenue growth are major reasons for rising bad

    loans.

    But the biggest hit to banks' bottom lines could come

    from the large corporations like Kingfisher Airlines,

    which owes banks approximately Rs.7000 crores and

    is on the verge of bankruptcy.

    Another big concern for the government is the trade

    off between inflation and interest rates. They are

    impacting key investment decisions, since they have a

    great impact on the returns on the investment. With

    the rising interest rates in India, people have low

    tendency to borrow and this affects the supply of

    money. High interest rates encourage people to save

    their money and hence growth is affected as the flow

    of money in the market reduces. India's WPI inflation

    rose to 9.73% with food inflation topping the chart.

    RBI has tried to tame inflation by increasing interest

    rates to stabilize the national economy. So far they

    have not succeeded in achieving low inflation, but the

    growth has slowed down considerably forcing the

    government to revise the estimated GDP growth from

    8-9% to 7.5%.

    The rupee is depreciating due to large demand of

    dollar in the market and in spite of RBI pumping

    approximately 700 million dollars. But according to

    CRISIL research, rupee would appreciate once foreign

    investments start coming in by the end of financial

    year. The formation of new governments in Italy and

    Greece is giving a ray of hope for the future of Euro

    and the world as a whole gave thumbs up to the new

    formation for reviving their economies. Government

    is to be blamed the most for the ongoing crisis (if we

    can say so) for the lack of powerful measures and

    many top industrialists, in a recently completed Indian

    Economic Summit, concluded that what the country

    needed was quicker decisions and better policy-

    making. India is growing younger, and its population

    wants things faster and better.

    While on the positive side, normal monsoons, good

    sowing and robust estimates of Kharif production

    have led us to revise the agricultural GDP forecast for

    2011-12 to 3.2% from 2.7%. Also the impact of US

    debt crisis and Euro zone crisis was least felt in our

    country due to proper controls and policies in place.

    But still a lot has to be done and we expect that as the

    general elections come closer, the government would

    take good policy measures for the development of our

    economy.

    Ravi Matalia

    MBA I

    Editorial F!NAL$T December 2

    Symbiosis Centre for Management and Human Resource Development

    Across

    1. An international bank rating system (1,1,1,1,1)

    2. A worldwide financial messaging network

    which exchanges messages between banks

    and other financial institutions (1,1,1,1,1)

    3. Immediate or cancel order (1,1,1)

    4. A price pattern in candlestick charting that

    occurs when a security trades significantly

    lower than its opening, but rallies later in the

    day to close either above or close to its

    opening price (6)

    5. Loans made by a bank or finance company, on

    which repayments or interest payments are

    not being made on time (1,1,1)

    6. The account a correspondent bank, usually

    U.S. or UK, holds on behalf of a foreign bank

    (6)

    7. A measure of the volatility, or systematic risk,

    of a security or a portfolio in comparison to

    the market as a whole (4)

    al F!NAL$T December 2

    Symbiosis Centre for Management and Human Resource Development

    Crossword

    An international bank rating system (1,1,1,1,1)

    A worldwide financial messaging network

    which exchanges messages between banks

    and other financial institutions (1,1,1,1,1)

    Immediate or cancel order (1,1,1)

    A price pattern in candlestick charting that

    occurs when a security trades significantly

    lower than its opening, but rallies later in the

    day to close either above or close to its

    finance company, on

    which repayments or interest payments are

    The account a correspondent bank, usually

    U.S. or UK, holds on behalf of a foreign bank

    A measure of the volatility, or systematic risk,

    tfolio in comparison to

    8. An investment fund traded on stock

    exchanges just like stocks (1,1,1)

    9. The second largest reserve currency in the

    world after USD (4)

    10. A fee or charge assessed to an investor for

    withdrawing money prior to a

    stipulated date (4,3)

    Down

    1. First country to issue currency (5)

    2. Former MD of Mckinsey & Company who was

    arrested in 2011 by FBI on insider trading

    charges (5,5)

    3. The average interest rate that leading banks in

    London charge when lending to other

    (1,1,1,1,1)

    4. An unethical practice employed by some

    brokers to increase their commissions by

    excessively trading in a client's account (8)

    5. A decentralized market of securities not listed

    on an exchange where market participants

    trade over the telephon

    network instead of a physical trading floor

    (1,1,1,6)

    6. Founded by Anil Agarwal in 1976, this

    company was in news due to its deal with

    Cairn India (7)

    7. Online trading system of BSE (1,1,1,1)

    8. Currency that a government has declared to

    be legal tender, despite the fact that it has no

    intrinsic value and is not backed by reserves

    (4,5)

    al F!NAL$T December 2011

    Symbiosis Centre for Management and Human Resource Development Page 6

    An investment fund traded on stock

    exchanges just like stocks (1,1,1)

    The second largest reserve currency in the

    world after USD (4)

    A fee or charge assessed to an investor for

    withdrawing money prior to a previously

    stipulated date (4,3)

    First country to issue currency (5)

    Former MD of Mckinsey & Company who was

    arrested in 2011 by FBI on insider trading

    The average interest rate that leading banks in

    London charge when lending to other banks

    An unethical practice employed by some

    brokers to increase their commissions by

    excessively trading in a client's account (8)

    A decentralized market of securities not listed

    on an exchange where market participants

    trade over the telephone or electronic

    network instead of a physical trading floor

    Founded by Anil Agarwal in 1976, this

    company was in news due to its deal with

    Online trading system of BSE (1,1,1,1)

    Currency that a government has declared to

    tender, despite the fact that it has no

    intrinsic value and is not backed by reserves

  • Editorial F!NAL$T December 2

    Symbiosis Centre for Management and Human Resource Development

    Black Box in Financial Market

    Unlike in an airplane, where a Black Box is used to

    determine the reasons of failure, the Black Box of

    stock markets is said to be in some way a contributor

    to their fall. Black Box Trading is said to be a major

    contributor for the famous "flash crash of 2

    2010 when 9% of the US market (Dow Jones)

    strangely disappeared in 5 minutes without anyone

    knowing as to what actually happened.

    Black Box Trading System also called Algorithmic

    Trading or Robot Trading is a system in which

    investment strategies are determined by powerful

    computer algorithms rather than by traditional stock

    selection techniques or methods such as company's

    past performance, current market position, future

    plans, management, etc. These days computers are

    capable of processing huge volumes of data in fraction

    of a second and identify trends in a market. This has

    helped some funds to effectively delegate trading

    decisions pertaining to the timing of execution of the

    order, price and the quantity; to the black boxes

    which they have created. These programmed

    computers seize upon temporary trading patterns

    rather than analyzing the underlying companies thus

    making markets more volatile.

    And this is what is exactly happening. Black box

    traders depend on these programs running on super

    fast computers which place thousands of buy and sell

    orders per second to exploit the short

    opportunities which keep on arising in the market and

    which are extremely difficult for a human to cash on.

    al F!NAL$T December 2

    Symbiosis Centre for Management and Human Resource Development

    Black Box in Financial Market

    Unlike in an airplane, where a Black Box is used to

    determine the reasons of failure, the Black Box of

    stock markets is said to be in some way a contributor

    . Black Box Trading is said to be a major

    contributor for the famous "flash crash of 2:45" in

    2010 when 9% of the US market (Dow Jones)

    strangely disappeared in 5 minutes without anyone

    Black Box Trading System also called Algorithmic

    Trading is a system in which

    are determined by powerful

    computer algorithms rather than by traditional stock-

    selection techniques or methods such as company's

    past performance, current market position, future

    computers are

    e volumes of data in fraction

    of a second and identify trends in a market. This has

    helped some funds to effectively delegate trading

    decisions pertaining to the timing of execution of the

    order, price and the quantity; to the black boxes

    reated. These programmed

    computers seize upon temporary trading patterns

    rather than analyzing the underlying companies thus

    And this is what is exactly happening. Black box

    on these programs running on super-

    ast computers which place thousands of buy and sell

    orders per second to exploit the short-term trading

    opportunities which keep on arising in the market and

    which are extremely difficult for a human to cash on.

    In August 2011 it was estimated that high

    trading or algorithmic trading accounted for almost

    70% of all share transactions in New York. At the same

    time, high-frequency trading accounted for as much

    as 50% of trading in London and has been blamed for

    aggravating intra-day swings and putti

    investors at a disadvantage due to the pace at which

    such trades are placed in the market.

    How it works?

    Let us understand this with an example. If a hedge

    fund's client wishes to sell off large quantities of a

    company's stock all at once, the inflow of the stock in

    the market would result in the price coming down,

    much to the despair of the hedge fund and the client.

    To avoid this type of loss, hedge funds use algorithms

    or programs that break down the stocks into

    numerous smaller transactions and sell them through

    more tactful channels. But it's a competitive world

    al F!NAL$T December 2011

    Symbiosis Centre for Management and Human Resource Development Page 7

    In August 2011 it was estimated that high-frequency

    trading or algorithmic trading accounted for almost

    70% of all share transactions in New York. At the same

    frequency trading accounted for as much

    as 50% of trading in London and has been blamed for

    day swings and putting ordinary

    investors at a disadvantage due to the pace at which

    such trades are placed in the market.

    Let us understand this with an example. If a hedge

    fund's client wishes to sell off large quantities of a

    nce, the inflow of the stock in

    the market would result in the price coming down,

    much to the despair of the hedge fund and the client.

    To avoid this type of loss, hedge funds use algorithms

    or programs that break down the stocks into

    sactions and sell them through

    more tactful channels. But it's a competitive world

    Editorial F!NAL$T December 2011

    Symbiosis Centre for Management and Human Resource Development Page 8

    and competitors have algorithms in place to detect

    other algorithms trading large quantities of stock.

    Thus, when one firm notices another firm trading

    Company X's stock in bulk, they can take a short

    position on the stock because the prices are going to

    fall with a huge inflow of company X's stocks.

    Hedge funds are increasingly relying on this type of

    trading to sell or buy large amounts of stocks without

    triggering a price reaction in the market. Naturally,

    the market becomes more volatile when algorithms,

    working only on the basis of minor price fluctuations

    are executing orders to make gains. But what is ironic

    is that there are programs which break volumes into

    smaller transactions and programs to identify such

    activities and find out the size of the trade.

    The depth of despair came in the first week of August

    2011 when investors in Europe moved strongly

    against Societe Generale, the largest bank of France

    pushing its shares down by as much as 20%.As a

    result, European regulators banned shorting on banks

    in France as well as three other European countries.

    Lord Paul Myners, Her majesty's Treasury in UK's

    Finance Ministry said, High-frequency trading has

    been a contributing factor in the harsh swings which

    have led to more than 300bn being wiped off the

    value of British shares since the beginning of July.

    Also, the average transaction size has also gone down

    significantly in the past few years.

    So now days a fund manager, instead of looking for

    good brokers is looking for a good program or

    algorithm to facilitate him with his trade practices.

    Also like other computer software, these programs

    are getting customized to suit the customers' needs.

    Kevin Slain, co-founder of the Game Development

    Company and an algorithmic expert talks about this.

    He says that the algorithms of Wall Street are

    dependent on one major quality, which is speed and

    they operate at milliseconds and microseconds. So, if

    a Wall Street algorithm is a few microseconds behind

    the others; it loses. So this algorithm needs to be as

    close as it could get to the internet server and there is

    a fight to get internet signals faster so as to close the

    deal a few milliseconds faster as compared to others

    and make money.

    The Indian Scenario

    The Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) had

    legalised algorithmic trading in early 2008, just as the

    financial crises began to make its presence felt in

    India. Foreign brokers were the first ones to introduce

    algorithmic trading but backed off as equities started

    sinking. Lehman Brothers' India was one of the first to

    launch a platform for algorithmic trading for its clients

    in August 2008, only to declare bankruptcy the very

    next month. But when the equity market started

  • Editorial F!NAL$T December 2011

    Symbiosis Centre for Management and Human Resource Development Page 9

    picking up since 2009, algorithmic trading found its

    feet again.

    The initial focus was on building a market for this type

    of trading with complete proprietary desks and tech-

    savvy investors, and the initial batch of products were

    offerings that allowed investors to work with inbuilt

    models. Trades can be executed through these

    programs at incredible speeds of as low as 150 micro

    seconds or 1/2000th the time it takes the human eye

    to blink. In a little over three years since SEBI allowed

    it, trading through this route has started to account

    for nearly a quarter of the total volumes in Indian

    markets. And seeing the scenario in the developed

    markets, this number can only be expected to grow.

    The dependency on these programs has increased to

    such an extent that, some have even put down the lid

    on their risk management systems which have been

    made mandatory by regulators and exchanges just to

    save a few microseconds. An algorithmic trade can be

    executed in 150 microseconds, but the presence of a

    risk management system can add another 500

    microseconds to it. Therefore, they switch off or dilute

    the risk management systems to save on time.

    What can be surely said is that with reducing human

    element, the markets will become more predictable

    but boring with the war of having a better algorithm

    in place rather better intellect. It would be like having

    an F1 race with drivers being significantly replaced by

    computers dictating them directions. What a boring

    race it would be!

    Akshay Narang

    MBA I

    Answers to Crossword

    Across

    1. CAMELS

    2. SWIFT

    3. IOC

    4. Hammer

    5. NPA

    6. Vostro

    7. Beta

    8. ETF

    9. Euro

    10. Exit Fee

    Down

    1. China

    2. Rajat Gupta

    3. LIBOR

    4. Churning

    5. OTC Market

    6. Vedanta

    7. BOLT

    8. Fiat Money

    Editorial F!NAL$T December 2

    Symbiosis Centre for Management and Human Resource Development

    Greece Debt Crisis: Should India Reflect?

    In this article an attempt has been made to list the

    major causes of Greek Debt Crisis, to draw parallels

    with conditions prevailing in India and to see whether

    the same can profligate the Indian Growth

    Brief Introduction to the Greek and

    Economy

    al F!NAL$T December 2

    Symbiosis Centre for Management and Human Resource Development

    Greece Debt Crisis: Should India Reflect?

    In this article an attempt has been made to list the

    major causes of Greek Debt Crisis, to draw parallels

    with conditions prevailing in India and to see whether

    Indian Growth Story.

    Greek and the Indian

    With this background, we now analyse

    of Greek crisis and whether India should reflect to

    avoid similar crisis at home.

    1. Welfare State

    Greece

    Greece economy emerged as a welfare state,

    implementing populist policies rather than following

    self sustaining business model. An automatic, indexed

    salary instead of pay increases based on productivity,

    the infamous 13th and 14th monthly salaries etc.

    were some of the causes of high budget deficits.

    India

    Social democratic policies governed India's economy

    from 1947 to 1991, characterized by extensive

    regulation, protectionism, public ownership, pervasive

    corruption and slow growth.

    Since 1991, continuing economic liberalization and

    reforms have accelerated India's economic growth

    and moved the country towards a market

    economy.

    However, even at present in India, like in Greece, the

    ruling elite have their own welfare state, doling

    populist handouts to win votes.

    For example, India is trying to fight poverty through

    National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme

    (NREGA). This scheme is more about winning votes

    al F!NAL$T December 2011

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    Greece Debt Crisis: Should India Reflect?

    th this background, we now analyse major causes

    of Greek crisis and whether India should reflect to

    avoid similar crisis at home.

    Greece economy emerged as a welfare state,

    implementing populist policies rather than following

    self sustaining business model. An automatic, indexed

    salary instead of pay increases based on productivity,

    the infamous 13th and 14th monthly salaries etc.

    re some of the causes of high budget deficits.

    Social democratic policies governed India's economy

    from 1947 to 1991, characterized by extensive

    regulation, protectionism, public ownership, pervasive

    corruption and slow growth.

    ing economic liberalization and

    reforms have accelerated India's economic growth

    and moved the country towards a market-based

    However, even at present in India, like in Greece, the

    ruling elite have their own welfare state, doling

    s to win votes.

    For example, India is trying to fight poverty through

    National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme

    (NREGA). This scheme is more about winning votes

  • Editorial F!NAL$T December 2011

    Symbiosis Centre for Management and Human Resource Development Page 11

    rather than empowering and preparing the poor for

    the competitive job market.

    2. Decline of Industry

    Greece

    Greece's main industries went into decline as labour

    costs increased too fast for the industry to remain

    competitive in Europe despite a significant rise in

    worker productivity. There was also very little

    modernization due to a lack of financing.

    India

    Outdated laws in India, help neither the workers nor

    the business owners. On the part of business owners,

    they feel the lack of flexibility and freedom to take

    necessary timely action. Workers face red tape, lack of

    transparency, denial of justice, unsafe working

    conditions and lack of social security system for

    workers in unorganized sector.

    Labour and land acquisition disputes are on the rise.

    Service industry is facing high attrition rate, rising

    labour costs coupled with low quality of services. As is

    evident by recent workers strike at Maruti Suzuki,

    land acquisition issues for Tata Nano Project at Singur,

    high demand for change of service provider in

    telecommunication and lowering profits of IT

    Companies.

    With low priority to research and development, even

    now, modernization is taking place mainly through

    import of machinery and technical knowhow.

    3. High Budget and Structural Deficit

    Greece

    The Greek economy was one of the fastest growing in

    the euro zone from 2000 to 2007. A strong economy

    and falling bond yields allowed the government of

    Greece to run large structural deficits.

    In May 2010, the Greek government deficit was

    estimated to be 13.6% which is one of the highest in

    the world relative to GDP.

    The public finances had been fiddled: a budget deficit

    of 3.7% of GDP was in fact touching 14%. This and

    rising debt levels (127% of GDP in 2009) led to rising

    borrowing costs, resulting in a severe economic crisis.

    India

    Gross Fiscal Deficit as a percentage of GDP

    Source: RBI

    Above trend reveals that fiscal deficit in India has a

    tendency to rise, except for short intervals in

    between. Government of India is expanding physical

    infrastructure capacities, including connectivity in the

    rural regions. In India inordinate delays and cost

    overruns cause structural deficit to increase, adversely

    0

    2

    4

    6

    8

    10

    12

    Editorial F!NAL$T December 2011

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    impacting both the long and short-term growth

    prospects of the economy.

    The main factor accounting for the rise in the gross

    fiscal deficit is increased revenue expenditure for both

    the central and state governments, which has always

    been a matter of concern with revenue expenditure

    accounting for about 80% of total expenditures.

    4. High Debt to GDP Ratio

    Greece

    During the 80s Greece suffered from poor

    macroeconomic performance due to expansionary

    fiscal policies that led to a tripling of the debt-to-GDP

    ratio, which went from the modest figure of 34.5% in

    1981 to 127% by the end of 2009 and 140% in 2010.

    India

    Debt of Indian Government as % of GDP

    Year Combined Outstanding Liabilities

    (Central and State Public Debt)

    1998-99 56.0

    1999-2000 63.2

    20002001 70.6

    20012002 76.0

    20022003 80.2

    20032004 81.4

    20042005 81.3

    20052006 80.3

    20062007 77.3

    20072008 75.1

    20082009 72..7

    Source: RBI

    The above trend reveals that apart from some years

    as exception the debt has been more than 70% of GDP

    in India.

    The ability to pay off its debt is measured by a

    countrys debt relative to its GDP, referred to as its

    debt-to-GDP ratio. If a countrys debt-to-GDP ratio

    gets too high, investors will worry that the

    government will either default on this debt, or will

    deflate its value away by monetizing the debt and

    thereby engineer a high inflation rate.

    5. High Level of Corruption in Public Life,

    High Degree of Tax Evasion

    Greece

    The Greek economy faces significant problems,

    including rising unemployment, an inefficient

    bureaucracy, tax evasion, high levels of political and

    economic corruption and low global competitiveness.

    Estimated tax evasion costs the Greek government

    over $20 billion per year.

    The real culprit is an institutionalized, broken system

    and inefficient management of the public sector and

    the overall revenue system. There is a mismatch as

    regards money collected from taxes and public sector

    services. It's a rift that is becoming wider and wider.

  • Editorial F!NAL$T December 2011

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    India

    Corruption has been one of the pervasive problems

    affecting India. In India the size of black economy is

    almost the same as that of white economy. It is

    evident by the fact that thirteen successive rate hikes

    by Reserve bank of India have failed to control the

    demon of inflation, which stands at a high of

    12%(CPI), because parallel economy that runs on

    black money can never be impacted by such

    measures, these measures are meant for countries

    where economies are run in a transparent and clean

    manner.

    Indians have to put up with cumbersome and

    inefficient bureaucracy, rampant corruption and

    bribery at all levels, the licenses, red tape and scores

    of other impediments in their day to day life.

    Conclusion

    The similarities between reasons of crisis in Greece

    and the manner in which India is governed are too

    stark to be overlooked. It is wise to remember the fact

    that India had faced similar crisis that forced it to

    mortgage part of its gold reserves only a little over

    two decades ago.

    Indians are resilient, hardworking and honest with a

    bright future provided they tackle the demon of

    corruption and bribery, bad rules and processes which

    not only lead to persistent distortions, hold back

    foreign investment but also systematically diminish

    economic growth.

    To quote Greek MP Elena Panaritis A solution to all

    the problems can only be found if the formal economy

    becomes simple, predictable and, therefore, easy to

    track. Any rules must, at long last, be applied even-

    handedly, with appropriate pricing of risk and minimal

    informational asymmetry, which usually benefits

    those who have accumulated considerable economic

    power and thus stifles innovation, risk-taking and

    entrepreneurship.

    Ishan Vijayvergiya

    MBA I

    Editorial F!NAL$T December 2

    Symbiosis Centre for Management and Human Resource Development

    Should Government

    For

    There is a political game being played on the question

    of bailing out Kingfisher airlines. Left, as usual, does

    not like private players and if we had their rule, we

    would not be using same old Ambassador Car. BJP and

    certain sections of Congress too are

    support the cash strapped airline.

    There is a misconception that airline industry is

    maintained by private players and government has no

    role in its further development. This is not true as

    airline industry is still growing and lot of refor

    including FDI in airline are waiting at the door.

    Government charges heavily on the Aviation Turbine

    Fuel (ATF) and other taxes.

    The question is not only of Kingfisher, Jet Airlines

    posted heavy loss and it is better not to speak of Air

    India. The aviation industry greatly needs a

    government boost for the development of our middle

    class population needs. Today airline travel has

    become possible for middle class people due to

    private players coming in providing healthy

    competition to keep rates down and better service.

    As per data available from the internet, the US civil

    aviation industry directly creates 4.2 million jobs in

    the airline, travel and tourism sectors. Its contribution

    al F!NAL$T December 2

    Symbiosis Centre for Management and Human Resource Development

    Finalyst Debate:

    Should Government bailout Kingfisher

    There is a political game being played on the question

    of bailing out Kingfisher airlines. Left, as usual, does

    not like private players and if we had their rule, we

    would not be using same old Ambassador Car. BJP and

    certain sections of Congress too are unwilling to

    There is a misconception that airline industry is

    maintained by private players and government has no

    role in its further development. This is not true as

    airline industry is still growing and lot of reforms

    including FDI in airline are waiting at the door.

    Government charges heavily on the Aviation Turbine

    The question is not only of Kingfisher, Jet Airlines

    posted heavy loss and it is better not to speak of Air

    ation industry greatly needs a

    government boost for the development of our middle

    class population needs. Today airline travel has

    become possible for middle class people due to

    private players coming in providing healthy

    better service.

    As per data available from the internet, the US civil

    aviation industry directly creates 4.2 million jobs in

    the airline, travel and tourism sectors. Its contribution

    to the US GDP is nearly 9%. India needs to develop the

    airline industry for business and tourism. The aviation

    sector growth is indirectly the growth of our economy

    and it is a part of infrastructure development of our

    country. Government should encourage private sector

    by providing assistance to them in every form

    possible.

    Against

    As per the view of Rahul Bajaj, If it's a free market

    economy, those who die must die. There is no point

    in bailing out a company in a free market economy as

    a business fails only if it is not viable. Government

    should not put the taxman mon

    business which is already in pathetic condition.

    Various countries are suffering by putting money in

    bad investment and hence making the citizens of the

    country poorer.

    According to some industry experts, As the old

    adage goes, you have to cut your coat according to

    the cloth, and if private airlines began flying even

    before they could walk, they have to pay the price.

    They found it profitable when the going was good and

    there were fewer competitors. Now the competition

    has increased and you have to revamp your financial

    models.

    al F!NAL$T December 2011

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    Kingfisher?

    to the US GDP is nearly 9%. India needs to develop the

    ry for business and tourism. The aviation

    sector growth is indirectly the growth of our economy

    and it is a part of infrastructure development of our

    country. Government should encourage private sector

    by providing assistance to them in every form

    As per the view of Rahul Bajaj, If it's a free market

    economy, those who die must die. There is no point

    in bailing out a company in a free market economy as

    a business fails only if it is not viable. Government

    should not put the taxman money in such a bad

    business which is already in pathetic condition.

    Various countries are suffering by putting money in

    bad investment and hence making the citizens of the

    According to some industry experts, As the old

    to cut your coat according to

    the cloth, and if private airlines began flying even

    before they could walk, they have to pay the price.

    They found it profitable when the going was good and

    there were fewer competitors. Now the competition

    you have to revamp your financial

  • Editorial F!NAL$T December 2011

    Symbiosis Centre for Management and Human Resource Development Page 15

    There are some opinions that if government wants to

    put money in airline, they must put in the national

    carrier Air India. Also the bailout is economically

    irrational as the economy is slowing down and

    inflation is very high. Vijay Mallya, owner of Kingfisher

    Airlines, has an image of flamboyancy and is chairman

    of UB group. So why should government infuse money

    in pockets of such a business men.

    Various political parties and major sections of

    government excluding our PM are opposing a single

    penny of bailout to Kingfisher and they are justifiably

    right. In a free market economy, government should

    not save a company; else many companies would

    demand the same.

    Editorial F!NAL$T December 2

    Symbiosis Centre for Management and Human Resource Development

    Financial Inclusion: Dream yet to be realised

    Financial Inclusion is the delivery of banking services

    at an affordable cost to disadvantaged and low

    income groups. In reality it includes loans,

    services, credit and debit cards access, overdraft

    facility, cheque facility etc. But in India it means

    having a saving or current account with any bank.

    According to the Index of Financial Inclusion which is

    used to find out the extent of reach

    services, India has been ranked 50 among 100

    countries. Only 34% of Indian individuals have access

    to banking services. In order to raise this number the

    RBI and the Government of India has taken innovative

    steps. To make sure that the banking s

    available to the poor new branches of Regional Rural

    Banks are being opened.

    In 2004, Reserve Bank of India has set up a

    commission (Khan Commission) to look into aspects of

    financial inclusion and the recommendations were

    incorporated into the mid-term review of the policy

    al F!NAL$T December 2

    Symbiosis Centre for Management and Human Resource Development

    Financial Inclusion: Dream yet to be realised

    Financial Inclusion is the delivery of banking services

    at an affordable cost to disadvantaged and low-

    income groups. In reality it includes loans, insurance

    services, credit and debit cards access, overdraft

    facility, cheque facility etc. But in India it means

    having a saving or current account with any bank.

    According to the Index of Financial Inclusion which is

    used to find out the extent of reach of banking

    services, India has been ranked 50 among 100

    countries. Only 34% of Indian individuals have access

    to banking services. In order to raise this number the

    RBI and the Government of India has taken innovative

    steps. To make sure that the banking service is

    available to the poor new branches of Regional Rural

    In 2004, Reserve Bank of India has set up a

    commission (Khan Commission) to look into aspects of

    financial inclusion and the recommendations were

    term review of the policy

    (2005-06). With the instruction from RBI, banks are

    now offering No Frill Accounts to low income

    groups. The individual bank has the authority to

    decide whether the account should have minimum or

    zero balance. With the comb

    banks and financial institutions, six million new 'No

    Frill' accounts were opened in the period between

    March 2006-2007. Banks are now considering

    financial inclusion as a business opportunity in an

    overall environment that leads

    Financial inclusion mainly helps the poor in getting

    them out of the clutches of local money lenders by

    providing them formal financial institutional support.

    As a first step towards this, some of our banks are

    offering general purpose credit ca

    credit cards which offer small loans without any

    collateral security. The RBI has simplified the KYC

    (Know your customer) norms for opening a 'No frill'

    account. Now a low income individual can open a 'No

    Frill' account without identity pro

    proof.

    Banks are now permitted to use the services of NGOs,

    SHGs and other civil society organizations as

    intermediaries in providing financial and banking

    services. These intermediaries could be used as

    business facilitators (BF) or busines

    (BC) by commercial banks.

    RBI has asked the commercial banks to start a 100%

    financial inclusion campaign on a pilot basis in

    al F!NAL$T December 2011

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    Financial Inclusion: Dream yet to be realised

    06). With the instruction from RBI, banks are

    now offering No Frill Accounts to low income

    groups. The individual bank has the authority to

    decide whether the account should have minimum or

    zero balance. With the combined effort of commercial

    banks and financial institutions, six million new 'No

    Frill' accounts were opened in the period between

    2007. Banks are now considering

    financial inclusion as a business opportunity in an

    overall environment that leads to growth.

    Financial inclusion mainly helps the poor in getting

    them out of the clutches of local money lenders by

    providing them formal financial institutional support.

    As a first step towards this, some of our banks are

    offering general purpose credit cards and artisan

    credit cards which offer small loans without any

    collateral security. The RBI has simplified the KYC

    (Know your customer) norms for opening a 'No frill'

    account. Now a low income individual can open a 'No

    Frill' account without identity proof and address

    Banks are now permitted to use the services of NGOs,

    SHGs and other civil society organizations as

    intermediaries in providing financial and banking

    services. These intermediaries could be used as

    business facilitators (BF) or business correspondents

    (BC) by commercial banks.

    RBI has asked the commercial banks to start a 100%

    financial inclusion campaign on a pilot basis in

  • Editorial F!NAL$T December 2011

    Symbiosis Centre for Management and Human Resource Development Page 17

    different regions. As a result, states and union

    territories like Pondicherry, Himachal Pradesh and

    Kerala have declared 100% financial inclusion in all

    their districts. Mangalam Village in Pondicherry

    became the first village in India where all households

    were provided banking facilities. Reserve Bank of

    India's vision for 2020 is to open nearly 600 million

    new customers' accounts.

    Yet, the dream of financial inclusion has not been

    fulfilled. The main reason is that the products

    designed by the banks are not satisfying the low

    income families. The provision of simple, small and

    affordable products will help to bring the low income

    families into the formal financial sector. Banks have

    limitations to reach directly to the low income

    consumers. Correspondents can be considered to be

    an excellent channel which banks can use to distribute

    their product information. Educating the consumers

    about the products of banks and their financial

    benefits will be a great step to tap their potential.

    Banks are now using new technologies like mobile

    phones to reach low income consumers. It is possible

    that the telephone providers themselves will start

    basic banking services like savings account and

    payments. Indian telecom consumers have few links

    to financial institutions. So without much difficulty

    telecom providers can win the battle with banks.

    Banks should therefore be proactive about using this

    opportunity.

    Financial inclusion is a great step to alleviate poverty

    in India. But to achieve this, the government should

    provide a conducive environment in which banks are

    free to pursue the innovations necessary to reach low

    income consumers and still make a profit. Financial

    service providers should learn more about the

    consumers and new business models to reach them.

    In advanced economies, Financial Inclusion is more

    about the knowledge of fair and transparent financial

    products and a focus on financial literacy. In emerging

    economies, it is a question of both access to financial

    products and knowledge about their fairness and

    transparency.

    Neha Agarwal

    MBA I

    Editorial F!NAL$T December 2011

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    Bush vs. Obama: The Mighty vs. the Charismatic

    There has always been policy and thought difference

    between the Republicans and the Democrats in the

    US. It has been a belief that Republicans are best for

    the US economy but facts have been hinting

    otherwise. According to the university of Nevada-

    Reno economics, from a period of 1949 to 2005:

    The Average unemployment rate under the

    Republicans was 6.0% while that under the

    Democrats was 5.2%

    The growth in Unemployment rate under the

    Republicans was 0.3% and under the

    Democrats was 0.4%

    The corporate profits as a share of GDP were

    8.8% for the Republicans and 10.2% for the

    Democrats

    The CPI inflation rate was same for both

    standing at 3.8%.

    According to the studies the US economy has grown

    significantly faster under the Democrats as compared

    to the Republicans. We continue speculating these

    differences in the 21st century as well when Obama

    replaced Bush, a few years ago, to bring economic

    reforms to a country going through a phase of war

    followed by recession.

    US economy has undergone a series of rise and fall

    from the period between 2001, when Bush took over

    the administration, to 2011, when Obama stands as

    the president. Reign of George W. Bush which started

    with a period of recession witnessed increase in tax

    expenditure, agricultural subsidies, oil prices and

    expenditure on Iraq war. With a trade deficit of nearly

    $850 billion and arguments over how to spend the

    budget, it became visible that money was being used

    where it was not required. Obama's presidency also

    started with a recession and saw a stimulus package

    to counter the crisis and higher emphasis on health

    care reforms. Obama's entry into the White House

    was looked upon as a hope to pass by the era of

    recession but the progress is slow and he is still not

    able to win the confidence of a US citizen.

    The economic policies under Bush were initially aimed

    at combating recession through tax cuts to boost

    spending. President Bush had raised tax cuts of about

    $2.4 trillion during his tenure out of which $474 billion

  • Editorial F!NAL$T December 2011

    Symbiosis Centre for Management and Human Resource Development Page 19

    came from the first four years of his term. While

    President Obama had cut taxes by $654 billion in the

    year 2011 and 2012 plan by signing major tax cutting

    legislations like the American Recovery and

    Reinvestment Act , Tax Relief, Unemployment

    Insurance Reauthorization and Job Creation Act of

    2010. Although the tax cuts by Obama in 2 years are

    much more than tax cuts by Bush in his first four

    years, Bush's tax cuts still appear to be massive

    because of two reasons. Firstly, Obama's tax cuts are

    targeted to the middle class people. It goes to the

    bottom of the 80% US households. While the tax cuts

    by Bush were targeted to the 20% of the rich

    population of the country. Secondly, the tax cuts

    provided by President Obama are temporary and the

    impacts of the tax cuts provided by President Bush

    have a higher cost as compared to Obama and are

    recurrent in nature. The tax cuts provided by Obama

    will eventually expire in the course of a decade and

    hence the tax cuts provided by Bush appear to be

    more massive.

    After the 9/11 attack in US the spending was focused

    on war and the defence expenditure rose. The 9/11

    attack in US aggravated the effect of recession on

    business in US, hence Bush came up with more tax

    cuts to help in recovery. People had seen the rise and

    fall of home loans and mortgages in this period. Bush

    did not respond to the Subprime Mortgage Crisis and

    passed it on to Obama. When Obama took over with a

    $787 million economic stimulus package, there was a

    positive growth seen in the economy. He stressed on

    the health care reforms and reduced the cost of

    health care. In response to the mortgage crisis,

    Obama regulated the non-banking financial

    companies and included the Consumer Financial

    Protection Agency to protect consumers with credit

    cards and debit cards from frauds.

    Doubts on US economic stability have also been raised

    again with the US falling into a debt crisis. Despite

    efforts from both the parties during their respective

    regimes, the US debt burden is getting heavier with

    each passing day. Critics doubt the various policies

    introduced by Obama and the explosive rate at which

    Obama is increasing the debt. They believe that while

    Bush was fast in raising the debt, Obama might be

    uncontrollable.

    The debt history goes way back to the time before the

    great depression. During the great depression US

    budget started to rise under democratic president

    Franklin Roosevelt. After the great depression during

    the time when Hassry.S.Trueman, a democrat,

    became the president, US had no debt but surplus.

    Debt started rising when Ronal Regan raised a $2342

    of debt, followed by George.H.W.Bush, both

    Republicans, raised a debt of $1494. Bill Clinton

    slowed the debt growth by increasing the debt by only

    $858 during his period as compared to George Bush

    Editorial F!NAL$T December 2011

    Symbiosis Centre for Management and Human Resource Development Page 20

    who had raised a debt of $2989 by the year 2009.

    While Bush was spending lavishly, Obama's

    expenditure is explosively high and is projected to be

    up to $9979 in the year 2016. This high amount of

    debt is due to the stimulus spending, non defence

    spending, tax cuts and healthcare reforms. Apart from

    this, unemployment has increased from 4.5% in 2001

    to 9% in 2011 and income inequality is also on a rise.

    While critics might believe that Obama is to be

    blamed, what they seem to ignore is that the debt of

    2009 was inherited by Obama. Debt ceiling is not just

    being raised because of the new policies that Obama

    is introducing but because of the existing policies that

    had been existing since a decade. Although Obama's

    healthcare plan is looked upon as an extra cost to the

    budget, but the Congressional Budget Office (CBO)

    analysis states that it could actually reduce the

    deficits. The healthcare plan has been implemented to

    curtail the spending and save the cost going into

    wastage and fraud. Unemployment and inequality are

    a by product of economic downturn. While the effects

    of the expenditures made by Bush were recurring, the

    impact of Obama's expenditure on the deficit are said

    to be temporary and will eventually reduce the US

    deficit.

    While Obama brings on economic reforms and

    massive tax cuts, the rising debt issue still makes his

    position weak in the US. The impact of the policy

    changes brought by Obama in the US economy may

    be visible late in time. Although agencies like CBO and

    Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT) says that the policy

    will help reduce the deficit, but the US citizens and

    critics are apprehensive about the future of the

    country and the claims made by the Democrats. Thus

    it might just be too late for the Democrats till the next

    elections to keep a strong stand if the impact of the

    policy does not subdue the economic down turn and

    the current situation prevails. But at the same time,

    the act of Republicans does not seem to have

    impressed the voters. Hence, whether the country

    votes for the incumbent party or demands a change of

    regime depends on how soon Obama reaps the fruits

    of his policies and expenditure on the same.

    Rishu Sukhija

    MBA I

  • Editorial F!NAL$T December 2

    Symbiosis Centre for Management and Human Resource Development

    The Beleaguered Rupee

    "Currency trading is unnecessary, unproductive, and

    immoral!!"- Dr. Mahathir Mohammed, ex Prime

    Minister of Malaysia. He further said "It should be

    stopped. It should be made illegal!"

    The Malaysian currency Ringgit was at its lowest point

    during 1997 and these words were spoken at the IMF

    and World Bank conference in Hong Kong. The Prime

    Minister of Malaysia obviously credited the currency

    traders (read speculators) for this.

    Some of the Indian politicians must be echoing the

    same sentiments at the moment.

    The Indian Rupee has depreciated by about 22 per

    cent in four months from Rs. 43.95 in July to

    Rs.53.72 on December 14, this is the worst

    performance by any currency in the region during this

    period.

    The immediate question that arises is what is to be

    blamed for this crisis that we are in. The forex market

    explains that importers went complacent with the

    appreciation of rupee earlier in this year, they

    al F!NAL$T December 2

    Symbiosis Centre for Management and Human Resource Development

    The Beleaguered Rupee-Still Bearish?

    trading is unnecessary, unproductive, and

    Dr. Mahathir Mohammed, ex Prime

    Minister of Malaysia. He further said "It should be

    The Malaysian currency Ringgit was at its lowest point

    rds were spoken at the IMF

    and World Bank conference in Hong Kong. The Prime

    Minister of Malaysia obviously credited the currency

    Some of the Indian politicians must be echoing the

    The Indian Rupee has depreciated by about 22 per

    from Rs. 43.95 in July to

    Rs.53.72 on December 14, this is the worst

    performance by any currency in the region during this

    The immediate question that arises is what is to be

    lamed for this crisis that we are in. The forex market

    explains that importers went complacent with the

    appreciation of rupee earlier in this year, they

    couldnt anticipate the rupee depreciation and they

    are more or less covering their exposure now that t

    in a great rush, therefore driving the currency prices

    up. Exporters on the other hand are said to be sticking

    with investments hoping for a revival in the currency.

    Speculators take these opportunities to cash in some

    money. But not all the blame shoul

    currency traders. Speculators in a way realize profits

    through trading currencies similar to the way one

    would trade commodities. They treat currency as a

    commodity. While currency traders can certainly

    cause temporary currency fluctuations,

    with a strong economy and underlying fundamentals

    will be immune to major fluctuations out of

    speculation.

    The question that arises is how strong is our

    economy? Do the currency prices truly reflect our

    economys fundamentals?

    A combination of domestic and global factors along

    with policy paralysis appears to be behind the free fall

    of the rupee.

    al F!NAL$T December 2011

    Symbiosis Centre for Management and Human Resource Development Page 21

    Still Bearish?

    couldnt anticipate the rupee depreciation and they

    are more or less covering their exposure now that too

    in a great rush, therefore driving the currency prices

    up. Exporters on the other hand are said to be sticking

    with investments hoping for a revival in the currency.

    Speculators take these opportunities to cash in some

    money. But not all the blame should be placed on

    currency traders. Speculators in a way realize profits

    through trading currencies similar to the way one

    would trade commodities. They treat currency as a

    commodity. While currency traders can certainly

    cause temporary currency fluctuations, but a country

    with a strong economy and underlying fundamentals

    will be immune to major fluctuations out of

    The question that arises is how strong is our

    economy? Do the currency prices truly reflect our

    economys fundamentals?

    of domestic and global factors along

    with policy paralysis appears to be behind the free fall

    Editorial F!NAL$T December 2011

    Symbiosis Centre for Management and Human Resource Development Page 22

    Domestic economy growth slumped to 6.9 per cent in

    Q2 of 2011-12 from 7.7 per cent in Q1 of 2011-12 and

    8.8 per cent in the corresponding quarter in 2010-11.

    This was largely due to moderation of industrial

    growth. The IIP index showed a decline of 5.1 per

    cent, year on year, in October 2011.

    India was supposed to be immune to global

    downturns but things have certainly changed or at

    least it looks so at this moment. The global scenario

    doesnt look that impressive, Q3 euro area growth, at

    0.8 per cent, is worrying and 2012 growth is now

    expected to be weaker than earlier projected as

    reports suggest. Even the recent European Union (EU)

    summit (December 8-9) agreement could not cool

    down negative market sentiments.

    And then, there is the turbulence in the global

    financial markets and the strange plight of funds

    towards the US dollar despite the troubles in the U.S.

    economy. The markets obviously believe that the

    dollar is a safe asset now. Quite strange these markets

    are!

    Inflation has been hovering at over 8 per cent for

    most part of the last two years and strangely, the

    Rupee was quite steady and even appreciated to

    some extent, Rupee was steady at around 44.5 per

    dollar for most part of last year. Rising inflation gives

    rise to currency depreciation thats what economics

    suggest. Probably this was about to happen, which

    unfortunately not many people could foresee.

    The Reserve Bank of India has thought of not

    interfering with the free market except a few symbolic

    operations given the country's foreign exchange

    reserves of $306 billion. Two years back after the

    Lehman fall the Rupee had depreciated to 51.25

    (around 19%). The RBI that time resorted to

    aggressive selling of Dollar, it sold around $18.67

    billion in the month of October 2008 and continued to

    sell dollars till March 2009.During this period, and it

    sold a total of around $25.27 billion in the open

    market, at prices varying from Rs 49.78 to Rs 52.61.

    The RBI that time was able to deal with such a

    situation as it had bought $ 78.203 billion from the

    market at an average price of Rs 39.90/dollar during

    the financial year 2007-08. The RBI ultimately made a

    profit of around 38000 crores on these transactions,

    but that is a different matter altogether.

    The rupee gained 94 paisa on 16th December, because

    of some qualitative measures taken by RBI such as

    issuing certain new guidelines on forward markets in

    foreign exchange. This move is to curb speculation on

    the Indian rupee. RBI banned rebooking of cancelled

    forward contracts; put limits on hedging based on

    past performance and reduced net overnight open

    position limits (NOOPLs) of authorised dealer banks.

    The affect was seen in the NDF markets in Singapore

    and Dubai. This move is certainly going to cool down

    the pressure on rupee in the short term but in the

    long term unless the macroeconomic numbers

    improve the rupee wont strengthen.

    In its mid-quarter monetary policy review, RBI said

    that the rupee depreciated mainly because of a

    widening trade deficit and the rupee is going to be

    under further stress. It is highly unlikely that the

    macro economic conditions are going to improve in

    the coming months; there is high possibility of further

  • Editorial F!NAL$T December 2011

    Symbiosis Centre for Management and Human Resource Development Page 23

    depreciation of rupee. Export industries such as IT,

    gems and jewellery and textiles will benefit from that,

    but that too in the short term till prices adjust. But the

    depreciating rupee puts a lot of pressure on the

    import bill of the country and the end users

    (consumers) feel the heat ultimately.

    There are several other factors to assuage the

    negative sentiments around the Rupee.

    Total external debt maturing within the next year

    (both short term debt and long term debt) is about

    137 billion USD, 43.5 % of Indias total foreign

    currency reserve. Sizeable portion of this debt is

    financed by European banks (as reported by The

    Hindu-Business Line). So there is doubt whether these

    banks would re-finance these debts.

    With the spread between the RBI repo rate and Fed

    rate reaching the highest level in recent history some

    of the corporates have converted their Rupee liability

    into Dollar liability. (Business Line)

    India is a net importer with majority contributions

    from oil imports. Rupee depreciating further poses a

    real challenge to the balance of payments.

    RBIs ability to intervene like the post Lehman

    depreciation is also very limited as RBI is running tight

    on the currency reserves in terms of import cover.

    (Import cover of 8-9 months)

    So what can be done now to check further

    depreciation of Rupee? Some argue that The RBI

    should have announced measures and policies to halt

    the rupee depreciation without waiting for long. But

    RBI cannot be blamed solely for this. Lot of reforms is

    now long overdue. India should have relaxed foreign

    investments in retail, insurance, pension, defense,

    aviation and a host of other sectors. Some of these

    reforms have been pending for nearly a decade. This

    way India could have attracted a lot of FDI.

    Government Infrastructure projects are also needs a

    push. Currently there is no good news about

    economic reforms; perhaps India needs a political

    change to gain investor confidence.

    Sudip Bain

    MBA I

    Editorial F!NAL$T December 2011

    Symbiosis Centre for Management and Human Resource Development Page 24

  • Editorial F!NAL$T December 2011

    Symbiosis Centre for Management and Human Resource Development Page 25

    Finance Club

    The Finance Club of Symbiosis Centre of Management & HRD is a student initiative which started in 2005. The

    Finance Club functions as the interface between the student community and the financial world. Its objective is to

    enable prolific interactions among the student community, coupled with valuable inputs from the faculty, the

    academia and representatives from the industry. The club provides a platform for all students to come together and

    explore the field of finance, leading to awareness amongst students with respect to the current financial aspects

    surrounding the economy and the industry.

    Activities of the Finance Club:

    Finalyst: The bi-monthly magazine published by the Finance Club, contains concise and in-depth analysis of

    emerging trends in the area of finance. Articles are written by students and eminent corporate personnel. It

    has a circulation of more than 2500 copies covering corporate, alumni and India's top 30 B-schools.

    Knowledge Series: The Finance Club comes out with a monthly Knowledge Series which equips layman to

    understand basic financial terms. It is an initiative to increase financial awareness and make various financial

    aspects in a simple, lucid and understandable manner.

    Bizfluence: An informal discussion on Pink Paper

    Pre Budget and Post Budget Analysis: An annual effort by the students at the Centre that involves

    publication of the Annual Budget both before and after the formal Budget speech.

    Events:

    Past Events:

    First Academic Summit on Valuation and Financial Modelling - Nov 2010

    Integrated Risk Management Seminar-2009

    Banking Conclave-2005

    Upcoming Event:

    Research Seminar on Commodity Market-18th Feb2012 at Mumbai

    Editorial F!NAL$T December 2011

    Symbiosis Centre for Management and Human Resource Development Page 26

    TEAM FINALYST

    SENIOR MEMBERS

    Abhishek Maheshwari

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    JUNIOR MEMBERS

    Anshu Saboo

    Jimit Shah

    Ravi Matalia

    Saurabh Singhania

    Sudip Bain

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    Taha Lanewala

    Contact Us:

    Finance Club, SCMHRD

    +91 7709079996

    Fax: +91-020-22934306

    email: [email protected]

    web: www.scmhrd.edu

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