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December 2018
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This presentation is a high-level summary of our business. For more information please refer to our form 10-Q for the quarter ended September 30, 2018 and other filings with the SEC.
This presentation contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws. Forward-looking statements include statements related to our market opportunity, growth strategy, international growth, the timing of product launches, the impact of our four key initiatives, pricing model, benefits of a two-sided marketplace, marketing and product investments and cloud migration on future GMS and revenue growth, and our financial guidance and related drivers. Forward-looking statements include all statements that are not historical facts. In some cases, forward-looking statements can be identified by terms such as “anticipates,” “believes,” “could,” “estimates,” “expects,” “may,” “plans,” “will,” “intends,” or similar expressions and the negatives of those words.
Forward-looking statements involve substantial risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those that we expect. These risks and uncertainties include: (1) our history of operating losses; (2) the fluctuation of our quarterly operating results; (3) our ability to implement our business strategy; (4) our ability to attract and retain an active and engaged community of Etsy sellers and Etsy buyers; (5) macroeconomic events that are outside of our control; (6) our ability to recruit and retain employees; (7) the importance to our success of the trustworthiness of our marketplace and the connections within our community; (8) our ability to enhance our current offerings and develop new offerings to respond to the changing needs of Etsy sellers and Etsy buyers; (9) the effectiveness of our marketing efforts; (10) the success of our new pricing model and the impact of that model on our sellers; (11) the effectiveness of our mobile solutions for Etsy sellers and Etsy buyers; (12) our ability to expand our business in our core geographic markets; (13) regulation in the area of privacy and protection of user data; (14) our dependence on third-party payment providers; and (15) the potential misuse or disclosure of sensitive information about members of our community and the potential for cyber-attacks. These risks and uncertainties are more fully described in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including in the section entitled “Risk Factors” in our Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2018, and subsequent reports that we file with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Moreover, we operate in a very competitive and rapidly changing environment. New risks emerge from time to time. It is not possible for our management to predict all risks, nor can we assess the impact of all factors on our business or the extent to which any factor, or combination of factors, may cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in any forward-looking statements we may make. In light of these risks, uncertainties and assumptions, we cannot guarantee future results, levels of activity, performance, achievements or events and circumstances reflected in the forward-looking statements will occur. Forward-looking statements represent our beliefs and assumptions only as of the date of this presentation. We disclaim any obligation to update forward-looking statements.
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*Active buyers and active sellers were approximately 37.1 million and approximately 2.0 million, respectively, as of September 30, 2018
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Commoditized Marketplaces
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** Source: Euromonitor (March 2017), Assoc. for Creative Ind. (Jan 2017), TEFAF (2017), Hiscox (2017), IBIS
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** Source: Euromonitor (March 2017), Assoc. for Creative Ind. (Jan 2017), TEFAF (2017), Hiscox (2017), IBIS
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* As of 12/31/2017
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Trust & Reliability Seller Tools & Services
Search & Discovery Marketing Capabilities
2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 2H 2018
Search & Discovery
Context Specific Search Ranking or “CSR”
Signals and Nudges
Filter search by shipping
“CSR” applied to Promoted listings
Personalized recommendations on the homepage
Buyer location incorporated into “CSR”
Adding recommendations to item landing pages
Trust & Reliability
Guest Checkout
Mandated Etsy Payments
Bestseller badges
Structured return policy
Klarna
Curated collections
User generated content
Marketing Capabilities
Labor Day sitewide sale
Gift card promo
Coordinated holiday sale
Holiday gift guides
Targeted offers Announced pricing changes
Increase performance marketing spend
R&D investment in local and national TV campaigns
Seller Tools & Services
Promoted Listings inventory expansion on mobile web
Sales and Promotions Tool
Promoted Listings added to landing pages
Seller tool enhancements
Optimized Promoted Listings
DaWanda referral agreement
Promote competitive shipping prices utilizing search
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$111M, up 43% YoY
$38M, up 37% YoY
1Transaction fee was 3.5% in Q2 and partially in Q3, price increase to 5% was effective July 16th, 2018
Q3 2018 FINANCIAL RESULTS
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*Image from Etsy’s TV Campaign
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Year-over-year growth
As-Reported GMS 20.4% in Q3
12.6%
16.5%17.6%
19.3%20.8%
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12.7%
15.2%
New Management
Team
Q3 2018 FINANCIAL RESULTS
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Reflects pricing
changes
Q3 2018 FINANCIAL RESULTS
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*Reconciliation of non-GAAP financial measure is contained in the Appendix
Q3 2018 FINANCIAL RESULTS
Implied Guidance
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1Completed a $100M Board authorized stock repurchase program in Q2 2018. In November, we announced a new Board approved $200 million stock repurchase program
2Cash, Cash Equivalents, and Short Term Investments
3Nine Months Ended
Q3 2018 FINANCIAL RESULTS
NME $32M NME $97M
2018
2016
2014
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24Q3 2018 Financial Results
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• Member of Etsy’s Board of Directors
• Two decades of leadership experience include growing consumer technology companies and scaling global marketplaces
• Previously served as President of Consumer Products and Services at American Express, CEO of Skype, and CEO of shopping.com, and held various executive roles at eBay
• Brings more than 30 years of senior financial experience to Etsy
• Previously at Leaf Group, where she served as CFO since 2015
• As the CFO at Move, Inc. she helped lead a successful sale of the company to News Corporation
• Manages our seller services platform globally overseeing development of the tools and services that enable our sellers to effectively start, scale and manage their creative businesses
• Held many integral roles at Etsy over the past six years from Business & Corporate Development, International, Marketplace Integrity and Trust & Safety
• Brings more than 15 years of experience in international strategic advising, compliance, and public company reporting
• Before joining Etsy, Jill served as Vice President, Senior Counsel and Assistant Secretary at American Express Global Business Travel
• Manages our technology strategy helping to further scale our global platform
• Prior to joining Etsy, Mike was the co-founder and managing partner of the consulting firm AKF Partners
• Mike’s career in technology has also included the roles of Chief Technology Officer of Quigo, Vice President of Engineering & Architecture for PayPal, and various roles at General Electric
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• Raina Moskowitz is Etsy’s Senior Vice President of People, Strategy, and member services. In this role, her mission is to develop and enable Etsy’s strategy by delivering exceptional service and experiences for both employees and customers.
• She comes to Etsy after nearly 13 years at American Express, where she held multiple leadership roles in product, strategy, operations and marketing.
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2 We have a significant, early stage opportunity to own “special” and capture a greater share of an estimated $155B TAM
3 We are successfully executing a focused growth strategy that has accelerated GMS growth
5 We have a dynamic, energized and experienced leadership team and Board that is delivering results and focused on enhancing shareholder value
6 Our business success is aligned with our mission to “Keep Commerce Human” through specific goals to make a positive social, economic and environmental impact
1 We are a one of a kind platform offering unique, handcrafted goods from creative entrepreneurs around the world
4 We are delivering strong financial performance, with a significant runway for additional growth
Etsy is not able, at this time, to provide GAAP targets for net income margin for 2018 because of the unreasonable effort of estimating certain non-cash items that are excluded from non-GAAP Adjusted EBITDA margin, including, for example, provision or benefit for income taxes and foreign exchange gain or loss, the effect of which may be significant.
● We anticipate that the key factors impacting our 2018 GMS and revenue guidance will be:○ Continued visit growth.○ Conversion rate growth driven by product launches enhancing the buying experience.○ Continued growth in international GMS, which we expect to grow faster than overall GMS, driven by global product enhancements
and our agreement with DaWanda, i.e., the migration and performance of the DaWanda seller and buyer community. We are assuming stable currency rates.
○ Planned reinvestment in marketing and an enhanced shipping experience.○ External headwinds, which we expect may offset some growth, such as the E.U.'s GDPR, currency fluctuations, changes to VAT and
state sales tax laws, and the potential for geopolitical events that impact trade.
● We anticipate that the key factors impacting our 2018 Adjusted EBITDA margin guidance will be:○ Planned reinvestment in marketing (including investments that will be more speculative), as well as improved seller tools and support.○ Lower operating expense as a percent of revenue stemming from the approximately $35 million in annualized cost savings resulting
from increased efficiencies in our operating structure in 2017. We expect to gain the most leverage in general administrative expenses, followed by product development expenses.
○ We expect to spend closer to the high-end of our $10 million to $15 million range in 2018 on cloud migration activities, most of which will be expensed through cost of revenue. We expect approximately $4-5 million of spend to occur in Q4.
■ During the migration, we will maintain some of our existing data center infrastructure to ensure reliability of our platform. As we migrate to the cloud we anticipate spending a smaller portion on existing data center infrastructure and more on cloud capacity.
■ As a result, compared with 2017, we expect to reduce capital expenditures related to maintaining our existing data center infrastructure by $4 million to $5 million in 2018.
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3Q18 4Q17
(in thousands)
Cash and cash equivalents $362,727 $315,442
Short-term investments 221,409 25,108
Accounts receivable, net 36,385 33,677
Property and equipment, net 119,243 117,617
Other current and non-current assets 167,604 113,739
Total assets $907,368 $605,583
Accounts payable $14,130 $13,622
Facility financing obligation 60,008 60,049
Long-term debt, net 272,790 -
Other current and non-current liabilities 165,821 135,018
Total liabilities 512,749 208,689
Total stockholders’ equity 394,619 396,894
Total liabilities and stockholders’ equity $907,368 $605,583
3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18
(in thousands)
Net (loss) income ($2,399) ($21,383) ($421) $11,669 $25,802 $44,750 $12,967 $3,379 $19,894
Excluding:
Interest and other non-operating expense, net 2,046 2,026 2,152 2,153 2,254 2,177 2,667 3,687 3,768
Provision (benefit) for income taxes 4,363 4,787 (1,052) (9,437) (12,562) (26,484) 14 1,246 (5,298)
Depreciation and amortization 5,786 6,905 6,938 6,660 7,022 6,577 6,320 6,357 6,439
Stock-based compensation expense 2,975 4,160 4,043 4,881 5,832 5,197 5,740 7,898 8,191
Stock-based compensation expense-acquisitions 1,110 151 842 1,613 724 725 714 719 725
Asset impairment charges — 551 — — — 3,162 — — —
Foreign exchange loss (gain) (1,337) 18,022 (2,780) (16,103) (8,069) (2,153) (1,850) 4,450 373
Acquisition-related expenses 512 58 — — — — — — —
Restructuring and other exit costs (income) — — — 11,260 1,766 871 (151) (41) (57)
Adjusted EBITDA $13,056 $15,277 $9,722 $12,696 $22,769 $34,822 $26,421 $27,695 $34,035
Reconciliation of Quarterly Net (Loss) Income to Adjusted EBITDA31
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
(in thousands)
Net (loss) income ($796) ($15,243) ($54,063) ($29,901) $81,800
Excluding:
Interest and other non-operating expense, net 256 549 1,202 5,502 8,736
Provision (benefit) for income taxes 854 4,983 26,069 27,025 (49,535)
Depreciation and amortization 12,380 17,223 18,550 22,525 27,197
Stock-based compensation expense 3,834 5,920 8,981 13,168 19,953
Stock-based compensation expense-acquisitions — 4,130 1,860 2,733 3,904
Asset impairment charges — — — 551 3,162
Net unrealized loss on warrant and other liabilities 419 411 3,133 — —
Foreign exchange loss (gain) — 3,049 21,775 14,951 (29,105)
Acquisition-related expenses — 2,059 — 570 —
Restructuring and other exit costs — — — — 13,897
Contribution to Etsy.org — — 3,500 — —
Adjusted EBITDA $16,947 $23,081 $31,007 $57,124 $80,009
Reconciliation of Annual Net (Loss) Income to Adjusted EBITDA32