december 2012 - january issue 2013

THE BRIDGEWWW.THEBRIDGEM.COM | 01 OCTOBER 2012 1

Volume 01 | NO 28 Dec-Jan 2012

PRICE: Djibouti DJF950, Kenya KSH300, S,Sudan SSP7.5, Ethiopia ETB40, Somaliland SSH9.000, UAE AED11, Puntland, PSH45.000.

KENYA 2013: An Election Year, A Delicate Balance 2

Monthly Business and Sociopolitical Magazine in the Horn of AfricaTHE

www.thebridgem.com

TOUGH TIMES AHEAD For the new President of Somalia, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud

THE BRIDGE01 OCTOBER 2012 | WWW.THEBRIDGEM.COM

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8. The year 2012 was a good year for Kenya9. Airtel, GSMA to empower small-holder Kenyan farmers

6. Sudan vs South Sudan7. Business Beats Politics: Coca-cola Sets up Base in Hargeisa

SPECIAL REPORT

24. A Love For South Sudan: Sudhir Patel, Doing Business in South Sudan Through The Years 27. Dahabshiil: The maker of liquid gold

30. Can Somalia’s Political Discon-tent Inspire Transformation?

32. Finally In Mogadishu!

COVER STORY

BUSINESS PROFILEBRIEFS

COMMENTARY

ART & CULTURE

10 2013: The Year Somalia Needs to Get Right

LETTERS TO THE EDITORYour views on the Horn of Africa and matters affecting the region are very important to us. We encourage you to share them with the thousands of our readers in Africa and all over the world. You can write to the Editor, at the address on our masthead, email [email protected], or have your say on Twitter @theBridgeMag or on our Facebook page – The Bridge Magazine.

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WWW.THEBRIDGEM.COM | DEC-JEN 2012

18. Profile: Somalia’s New Government14. For 2013, Expect Increased U.S. Military Involvement in the Horn of Africa16. Ethiopia In 2013: Will Desalegn Be Up For the Challenge?


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end of the year 2012.

In this issue, our main story features country by country analysis and projections for the coming year.

What should we expect in the region in 2013? How is the political landscape expected to change and shift? And how will these changes impact the region collectively? What about America’s relationship with the Horn? Should we expect more from Obama’s second term in office? These are some of the questions that the features hope to answer.

In addition to this, check out our regular columns and sections for regional business briefs, Nasrin’s journey into Mogadishu part 2 in our culture page, and a Kenyan businessman’s love for South Sudan.

As the year ends, I am proud to announce to you that we are relocating our base to Nairobi. We are getting bigger and better. A change you will see and experience and enjoy from the beginning of 2013.

From me and the entire Bridge Team, we wish you Happy holidays and a great year ahead!

From The Publisher | Amal Ismail | [email protected]

2012 TURNED OUT TO BE A TRULY REMARKABLE YEAR FOR THE HORN OF AFRICA; port of Kismayo was regained from al-Shabaab, the death of the Ethiopian premier Meles Zenawi, the break up and make up of Sudan and South Sudan. And the commissioning of a transport corridor from Kenya to South Sudan.

It has been a year of mixed fortunes for the region, Kenya suffering several civil

unrests and terrorists attacks and Somalia finally putting in place a government that has the Somali people’s approval as well as the international community.

Where Somalia might have been written off as a failed state for the longest time, it is in 2012 that the Somali people yet again showed the world their resilience, and made the first bold steps to reconstruction.

Life came back to the streets and beaches of Mogadishu, a new president was sworn, a new prime minister and cabinet put in place, and for the first time in the country’s history, a female deputy prime minister was appointed into office.

But the story of Somalia, for now, cannot be written without mention of the notorious al-Shabaab militia. 2012 saw the group lose several of its key positions within Somalia, thanks to joint effort between the Somali government’s forces and the AMISOM troops. Although al-Shabaab carried out many assassinations, especially of journalists, the resounding victory against the al-Qa`ida-linked group far outweighs their desperate killings.

With this joint November - December edition, we mark the

PUBLISHER Amal Ismail

MANAGING EDITORBertha Kang’ong’oi

EDITING ASSISTANTSShukri Omar

COLUMNISTJoakim Gundel

CONTRIBUTORSPetterik WiggersObadias Ndaba

CREATIVE DESIGN & LAYOUTJoseph Abuya

REGIONAL CONTACTSKENYA + 254 707904957DJIBOUTI + 253 77 792407S.LILAND + 252 2 4225276S.SUDAN +211 956739482E-mail: [email protected] www.thebridgem.com

The Bridge magazine is a product of Bridge Media Corporation (BMC). Since “The Bridge Magazine” was founded in 2010, it set its mission to maintain a Horn of Africa focus. The Bridge is a business and sociopolitical magazine produced and distributed monthly across several East African countries Such as South Sudan, So-malia, Ethiopia, Djibouti, Somaliland and Kenya. It is an independent mag-azine established for the purpose of presenting balanced coverage of all newsworthy events and dissemina-tion of information that promotes social, political and economic issues in the region. It owes allegiance to no political party, ethnic community, reli-gious or other interest groups.

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BRIEFS By Edward Machar

tamed in both countries, with food and essential commodities prices shooting high. In Sudan, there were street protests and running battles between the police and mostly university students.

The September agreement, signed by South Sudan’s Salva Kiir and Sudan’s Omar El Bashir in late September, came after the scheduled one day of talks ex-tended into four days.

The oil will start flowing again “by the end of the year, I believe,” says Pagun Amum, chief negotiator for South Sudan.

The two countries, that came close to war in April, also agreed to cooperate on banking and monetary policy, which could help boost trade after decades of civil war.

Bank transfers were impossible to make in local currencies, because both gov-

In late September 2012, Sudan and South Sudan finally agreed to improve border security and foster trade be-

tween the two countries. But most cru-cially, the neighbours agreed to restart oil exports from the South through northern pipelines. During talks held in Ethiopia’s capital, Addis Ababa, the two sides also agreed to the creation of a demilitarised buffer zone along the disputed border be-tween South Sudan and Sudan.

South Sudan had shut off the taps in January, amid claims that the fees that Sudan was charging were too high. The suspension of oil exports had crippled both countries’ economies. Both countries rely heavily on crude export sales for their state budgets.

In South Sudan, oil accounts for 98 per-cent of government revenues – and the shutdown caused huge economic diffi-culties for both nations. Inflation rose un-

ernments did not recognise one another’s currencies. Cross-border travellers had to change money first into dollars, often at a high premium on the black market.

The border between the two countries had been closed since South Sudan’s seces-sion and subsequent independence and there has been almost no bilateral trade between the two neighbours.

Following the signing of the agreement, troops from both armies will now pull back from their positions along the border, where fighting in April raised fears that the two countries were heading back to an all-out war.

Despite the agreements signed during the talks in Ethiopia, many issues remain unresolved, including marking the border and settling the fate of disputed border areas.

Another contested issue that remains is the fact that there was no resolution on oil-rich disputed border areas claimed by both Sudan and South Sudan. This includes the region of Abyei, which has huge political significance for both presidents.

SUDAN VS SOUTH SUDAN

The Two Agree to Re-Start Oil Exports

6THE BRIDGEDEC-JEN 2012 | WWW.THEBRIDGEM.COM


BRIEFS

Mahmoud Silanyo. Seizng the moment, president Silanyo recognised the po-tential in the Coca-Cola gesture by say-ing that it would not only create local employment but also place Somaliland on the regional economic map.

And indeed, another international giant, Toyota, is rumoured to be at an advanced stage of setting base in So-maliland, with a basic core staff already in place. Other international companies are said to be eyeing Somaliland for in-vestments in the minerals, gases and oil industries.

The world’s largest soft drinks maker, Coca-Cola, opened a USD 17 million bottling plant in Jalelo, 35 km North

of Hargeisa last month, the largest single investment in the breakaway republic of Somaliland. It is a joint venture between the soft drinks giant and the local Somalil-and Beverage Industries, owned by the local businessman, Ahmed Osman Gelleh.

This was an obvious quasi-political achievement for Somaliland which has been rallying endlessly to be recognised internationally but without success. The inauguration ceremony was presided over by the Somaliland president, Ahmed

The Coca-Cola bottling plant in Somalil-and is based on a 100% franchising agree-ment with SBI and Ahmed Gelleh.

For Coca-Cola, it enters an economy that the government says is almost entirely reliant on remittances sent home from citizens living abroad and the proceeds of camel, cattle, sheep and goat exports to the Middle East and North Africa. Output from the Hargeisa bottling plant will sub-stitute sales from Coca-Cola beverages currently imported from the Middle East.

According to the Cocacola regional of-fice, the venture with Somaliland Bever-age Industries, is part of the Coca-Cola’s commitment to invest US $12 billion in the African continent by 2020, starting in 2010.

SBI will supply the soft drinks to Somalil-and, Puntland and the Galmudug region, “and maybe in the future, also be able to supply to South Central Somalia as well.

SOMALILAND

Business Beats Politics: Coca-cola Sets up Base in Hargeisa

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satellite towns have already started reaping the benefits of the superhigh-way with a number of shopping malls, estates, school and factories scram-bling for space in these areas.

Launched days apart with the Thika superhighway was yet another mile-stone in Kenya’s transforming trans-port scene: the Nairobi Commuter Rail Service and the Syokimau Railway Sta-tion.

The Syokimau station is the first phase of the Sh24b Nairobi Commut-

One of these signature projects of the outgoing President Kibaki’s term is the construction and

completion of the Thika Superhigh-way. Construction on the road began in 2009 and was officially completed and opened in November 2012. The first of its kind in East Africa, the 50 kilometre superhighway was built through a joint funding by the Government of Kenya, the African Development Bank and the People’s Republic of China.

The construction of the road has seen the value of land along it skyrocket, and

er Rail Network that is geared at easing traffic congestion in Nairobi, blamed for huge economic losses. Built at a cost of ksh 400 million, the railway station is the first to be built in Kenya in 80 years. It is geared to ease traffic between the city of Nairobi and its suburbs.

After the completion of the Syokimau Station, focus will be put on building oth-er nine modern stations, placed strategi-cally around the city in areas that carry a lot of the human traffic travelling into the city everyday.

The last project that Kenya undertook in 2012, and perhaps the pearl on the crown of Kenya’s development blue-print dubbed Vision 2030, is the LAPSETT project. LAPSETT, an acronym for Lamu Port- South Sudan- Ethiopia Transport Corridor, is an ambitious program that will propel Kenya’s economy and open up markets in the Horn of Africa region.

After completion, the project, will in-clude an oil refinery and mega port at Lamu, oil pipelines from South Sudan, transportation hubs for rail, road and air travel and a number of tourist resort cit-ies along its path.

While these major infrastructural instal-lations, together with a booming real es-tate industry, a growing IT environment - have all boosted Kenya’s standing as the regional business hub in East and Central Africa, Kenya still lags behind, way too far in global competitiveness indexes.

According to the World Bank’s Doing Business 2013, Kenya fell four places in the global Ease of Doing Business index, ranked 121 out of 185 countries in the world, down from position 117 in the previous year.

However the same report showed that Kenya had made some improvements on the ease of starting a business, ranking it 126, up from 132 in the previous year.

KENYA

The year 2012 was a good year for Kenya. Oil and gas discovered at the Northern frontier and off the coast respectively. A number of mega infrastructure projects were completed and their impact on the economy was starting to show even before completion.


BRIEFS By Edward Machar


ing the productivity of their yield, as well as their potential income.

It will also help create a farmer commu-nity within which peers can share experi-ences and exchange information about social gatherings, events, and job oppor-tunities.

“At Airtel, we recognise that innovative telecommunications solutions have the power to transform communities. This ini-tiative is a solid testament to what part-nerships that harness relevant consumer needs can achieve in overcoming daily challenges. We are excited and thankful

Airtel Africa has announced that it is working with the GSMA to initiate a project to provide approximately

250,000 small-holder farmers in Kenya with reliable and relevant agricultural informa-tion via their mobile phones. Smallholding farms are usually farms supporting a single family with a mixture of cash crops and subsistence farming.

The innovative project, dubbed ‘Sauti ya Mkulima’ (Swahili for voice of the farmer), aims to provide farmers with access to per-tinent agriculture-related information, ad-vice and research that will help them make better decisions about their crops, increas-

to the partners involved in birthing this ini-tiative,” said ShivanBhargava, the Managing Director, Airtel Kenya, during the launch of Sauti ya mkulima.

He added: “Our ‘Sauti ya Mkulima’ project will provide small-holder farmers with ac-cess to quality content, information and know-how on agriculture-related activities. Gaining access to this information will be immensely beneficial to the farmers whose livelihoods are dependent on their yield. The information will allow them to make better informed decisions that will result in improved productivity.”

As part of the partnership, the GSMA

Farmer initiative – supported by USAID and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation – has awarded Airtel USD 400,000 to be used to-wards the ‘Sauti ya Mkulima’ project. The initiative aims to facilitate the rapid scaling of the use of mobile phone networks to pro-vide farmers in developing countries with agricultural information.

The funds will be used to develop a reliable database of content with the help of part-ners such as the Centre for Agricultural Bio-science International (CABI), an inter-gov-ernmental not-for-profit organisation and radio-based information provider Kilimo Media, as well as to set up the technologi-cal capabilities to execute the project with the help of world-class technology service providers.

Initially, ‘Sauti ya Mkulima’ will focus on small-holder Kenyan farmers engaged in maize, banana, mango, rice, beans and hor-ticulture (tomato and black night shade) crops. Information on more crops will be added on a quarterly basis. Airtel plans to further develop the model and eventually replicate it across all its markets on the con-tinent.

Airtel operates in 17 countries across Africa including Burkina Faso, Chad, Democratic Republic of Congo, Gabon, Ghana, Kenya, Madagascar, Malawi, Niger, Nigeria, Congo, Rwanda, Seychelles, Sierra Leone, Tanzania, Uganda and Zambia.

AIRTEL, GSMA TO EMPOWER SMALL-HOLDER KENYAN FARMERS

Power trading will ensure enhanced power security for the EAPP countries and result in cost savings for the electricity companies and ultimately lower tariffs for end users.

Shivan Bhargava, Managing Director, Airtel Kenya

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BRIEFS


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SOMALIACOVER STORY

In 2012, Somalia enjoyed success in its end of transition roadmap. The country chose a Somali-approved Parliament and Speaker who then

in turn elected an internationally-lauded president. The new president, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, was almost immediately faced with a diplomatic incident involving the now notorious ‘charcoal incident’ and to the surprise of many, Mohamud held up the promises the previous administration made to the United Nations Security Council. Shortly thereafter, he selected a near unanimously approved cabinet that included the country’s first female deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister, Ms. Fozia Yusuf Aden.

[ Please read President Mohamud’s and his administration’s full profile on page 18]

Most Somalia observers would not have fathomed the country being capable of achieving any of the above successes in 2012. Many were even speculating that the arbitrary date of 20 August 2012 set for ending the previous transitory government was setting up the country for failure. But Somalia, and its often violent internecine politics, prevailed.

So what will 2013 hold in store for the world’s most infamous country? Will it be another successful year where the Somali military and AMISOM regain more territory from al-Shabaab or will al-Shabaab have another chance at taking over control of strategic

2013: THE YEAR SOMALIA NEEDS TO GET RIGHT

By Rahma Dualeh

A Somali girl stands in a street in Mogadishu near to the city’s old port on March 10, 2012. PHOTO BY: PHIL MOORE



SOMALIA

locations such as Aden Adde Airport in Mogadishu and the Kismayo port? Will the Somali government in 2013 continue its seemingly upward trajectory or will it come up short on delivering services to those it governs?

On the political front, the government needs to reestablish itself as credible and efficient. For this, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s administration will need to identify how it will bring and deliver social services under its public institutions. Today, almost everything in the country is run by the private sector.

In 2013, if the Somali government can make real gains toward creating credible institutions, it will set a precedent for self-sustainment since the collapse of the Siad Barre regime in 1991. Mohamud seems to have chosen a cabinet that is most capable to carry out the job; however, whether these individuals are successful or not will depend on the support they receive from the administration.

This will be the president’s true challenge: harmonizing his objectives to match the ambitions of his own administration. In other words, he has to ensure that everyone sets aside personal and clan politics and strives together toward the same goal; the betterment of Somalia.

Somalia’s military occupation in 2013 will most likely remain as messy as it was in 2012. Contrary to the Djibouti Peace Process of 2008, all three of Somalia’s neighbours were involved militarily in the fight against al-Shabaab. It is anticipated that these three countries (Djibouti, Ethiopia, and Kenya) will still be operational in Somalia in the coming year. In 2013, Somalia’s military will perhaps have made some advancements in its training; however, it will be far from ready to pick up where AMISOM leaves off. Thus, although the composition of countries present in Somalia may change, there will be peacekeepers and other African countries involved in Somalia’s reconstruction phase.

On the topic of foreign military presence, a different question to ponder

is whether non-African countries would operate in Somalia next year. Nations such as Turkey, the UK, and even Iran have significantly increased their diplomatic associations with Somalia. Given this, some analysts have suggested that perhaps in 2013, one or more of these countries may seek to offer military observers to Somalia. This scenario is highly unlikely, largely due to the unwillingness to disrupt or undermine the African Union’s efforts in Somalia.

In the case of the U.S., in 2013 Washington will stick to its long practiced Mogadishu Doctrine of not getting involved in conflicts that do not present a direct threat or benefit to its national interest. Much to the dismay of those who advocate for American boots on the ground in Somalia, if there will be any American presence in Somalia in the coming year, it will most likely be diplomatic vice military.

Another sensitive diplomatic matter for Somalia is its relationship with Somaliland. With a deputy prime minister from Somaliland, the Somali government has an opportunity to further its interactions with the Somaliland administration in 2013. The two administrations have achieved significant progress in this year’s dialogues, particularly on matters relating to security. Reconciliation of political dialogue is too ambitious a feat for next year; however, there will likely be increased collaborations between the two over the next 12 months.

Needless to say, the greatest wildcard in Somalia’s 2013 predictions is al-Shabaab. Will the violent al-Qa`ida- linked insurgency regain its momentum of earlier years or will they continue to dissipate as they have done for the majority of 2012? The chances of al-Shabaab regaining strength and control will largely depend on the will of the people. Somalis – after seeing the group for its true violent internationalist agenda – started to rally against al-Shabaab’s atrocities as early as late 2010. It is

highly improbable that Somalis may yet again fall for al-Shabaab’s rhetoric and allow the group to regain status in areas it has abandoned or lost to AMISOM. In 2013, Somalis should rally against al-Shabaab even harder and continue to expose the group for its mass atrocities against them, their religion, and their country. With that said, the Somali government needs to do its part and refocus its efforts on disarmament, demobilisation, and reintegration of defected al-Shabaab militiamen. Will al-Shabaab retake strategic cities such as Mogadishu or Kismayo in 2013? Most probably not. But could the government come up short in establishing security and exerting control over these regained territories? Yes. And herein lies the risk. If the Somali government is unable to perform its institutional functions, the country risks falling back into its warlord era; it is in this environment that violent organisations can thrive. Thus, it is precisely this outcome that the government needs to avoid at all costs.

Lastly, in 2013, the Somali government needs to showcase as best as it can the plethora of challenges it faces in rebuilding Somalia. This new administration should not repeat the mistake of its predecessor and remain mute on the trials and tribulations of reconstructing Somalia. By publicising its efforts and seeking ways to highlight them to Somalis and the international community the current administration could receive greater approval and less criticism from naysayers.

2013 will be a challenging year that

Somalia has to get right in order for it to move forward. There will be many eyes on Somalia’s internal politics and if any foul play is suspected, then any hope restored will quickly be dismissed.

The newly formed government coupled with continued military successes against al-Shabaab by a more cohesive AMISOM, 2013 could be the year that Somalia finally sheds its notorious alias, Failed State.

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COVER STORY

Kenya, East Africa’s powerhouse, goes into presidential elections on March 4, 2013.It will be the first time that the country

holds national elections under the new constitution, which came into force in August 2010. The country will not only vote for a new president but also for newly created positions of Senator, County Governor, and women County Representatives.

Given the terms of the new constitution, the 2013 elections might also be the first where the leading two candidates could face a runoff. This will happen if none of the candidates achieves a simple majority in the first round or if the winner does not garner 25 percent of the total votes in at least 24 counties. This is a very likely scenario.

KENYA 2013: AN ELECTION YEAR, A DELICATE BALANCE

Next year’s elections will also be the first that the country holds after the disputed 2007 elections which led to the death of many and the displacement of hundreds of thousands. In many ways, Kenya is yet to recover from the trauma and aftermath of the 2007 post-election violence: many internally displaced persons still remain in camps under makeshift shelters, the rifts that largely led to the violence in the first place are yet to be addressed, and two of the four Kenyans accused by the International Criminal Court (ICC) of masterminding the violence are vying for the presidency of Kenya in 2013.

Whatever the outcome of the presidential polls will be, 2013 will be a turning point for Kenya. The next elections will influence Kenya’s

way forward, not only in her internal affairs but also in her relations with the Horn of Africa region as well as internationally. Traditionally, Kenya’s election campaigns have largely been internal issues-based, without much of a policy as to how Kenya relates with her immediate neighbours and with the international community. But that will have to change, especially with a possible scenario of a Kenyan sitting president having to appear before the ICC to face charges of committing crimes against humanity.

In perhaps a self-preservation move, ICC accused Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto (son of former president Jomo Kenyatta and a prominent politician from Kenya’s Rift Valley respectively) are said to likely form a partnership in which Ruto becomes

Traditionally, Kenya’s election campaigns have largely been internal issues-based, without much of a policy as to how Kenya relates with her immediate neighbours and with the international community. But that will have to change, especially with a possible scenario of a Kenyan sitting president having to appear before the ICC to face charges of committing crimes against humanity.

By Bertha Kang’ong’oi



KENYA

Bridge Media Corporation (BMC), the parent company for The Bridge Magazine and Bridge Online has been growing successfully over the past year. In order to support BMC ‘s aim of becoming the leading multimedia news research and publishing house focusing on the Horn of Africa, we have taken the initiative to introduce a new subsidiary; Bridge Analytics.

Bridge Analytics is a business intelligence and risk analysis unit covering the political, economic and social trends in the Horn of Africa. Drawing on an extensive network of experts, Bridge Analytics will feed The Bridge Magazine and Bridge Online with high quality analysis, as well as provide advisory services to its clients on strategy, risks and operational approaches to engagement and investments in the complex emerging markets in the high-risk environment of the Horn of Africa.

INTRODUCING BRIDGE ANALYTICS

Bridge Analytics aims at maintaining a specialised and extensive expertise on the Horn of Africa and in particular, Somalia, covering development, business, rehabilitation, governance, conflict and security management. The mission is to provide clients with direct access to key decision-makers and opportunities in the complex political and economic terrain. We possess expertise in navigating and providing insight and the ability to seize the tremendous opportunities we believe exist in the Horn of Africa.

Bridge Analytics clients range from government agencies, international organizations, to regional and international private sector businesses that already operate or intend to engage in the Horn of Africa region.

Bridge Analytics is driven by Amal

Ismail, founder/CEO of BMC and publisher of The Bridge magazine,

Rahma Dualeh, Co-Founder of Bridge Analytics, and Joakim Gundel, Director of Bridge Analytics.

Amal Ismail is a journalist and researcher specializing in Somalia and the region on conflict, Islamist movements, and piracy. Rahma Dualeh specializes on the Horn of Africa’s economic, socio-political, and security risk concerns and has served as a U.S. government consultant in the past. Joakim Gundel is a political scientist, researcher and analyst, with over 15 years field experience in the Horn, Somalia in particular, covering humanitarian interventions, operational security analyses, good governance, and conflict/post conflict issues.

We invite you to contact us for further information on our services and discussion on how we can assist your organisation:

[email protected]

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Contacts Details: Mohamed Elmi Obsieh, Marketing ManagerTell: +(253) 21 34 03 05, Cell: +(253) 77 81 09 92

Email: [email protected]. aeroport-jib.com

Djibouti-Ambouli International Airport is strategically placed to serve as a viable component and hub in the transport chain for transit air-sea freight; and as a regional platform for the redistribution of goods across the horn of Africa and in surrounding land locked countries.

DJIBOUTI-AMBOULI INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT

Kenyatta’s running mate. Kenya’s presidential race has attracted

about 15 candidates, but according to recent opinion polls, it is the incumbent Prime Minister, Raila Odinga, that is the preferred presidential candidate, favoured to win the elections. But in the case of a runoff, the polls conclude, Uhuru Kenyatta is seen as a likely winner. In an interesting twist, if the elections do go into a runoff, both Kenyatta and Ruto will already be at The Hague attending their trials which are set to begin on April 10 2013.

This scenario would place the country in a precarious situation and a likely constitutional dilemma. Would it even be constitutional to vote for a

person already facing the ICC? What happens if they win after the runoff? Could Kenya manage or afford to have an absentee president and vice president?

As the former United Nations Secretary General Kofi Annan warned, electing a person facing ICC charges could result in Kenya joining the league of failed states, being shunned by the international community, and perhaps even face sanctions.

Oddly enough, opinion polls have shown Kenya’s contradicting character on this issue. On the one hand, a majority of Kenyans support

the ICC process, but at the same time, a good number also support an Uhuru Kenyatta – William Ruto presidency. This does not add up. Regardless, provided that kenyatta-Ruto supporters do not resort to post-election violence, it may be a manageable situation if the two lose.

If Kenya witnesses instability after its 2013 presidential elections, it will certainly negatively influence the region at large. In the2007- 2008 post-election violence when the Kenya- Uganda railway line was demolished and resulted in the destabilising of basic commodities and oil prices in Uganda, Rwanda, and Burundi serves as a good evidence of this.


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COVER STORY

In 2013, like in years before, President Obama will not have adequate diplomatic resources to deal with the Horn of Africa; his military on the other hand, will not have the same problem.

FOR 2013, EXPECT INCREASED U.S. MILITARY INVOLVEMENT IN THE HORN OF AFRICA



UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

The dust of the 2012 U.S. presidential election has finally settled, and the Obama administration has won itself

four more years in the White House. But Americans are not as excited about the next presidential term as they were about the last; those hoping for change in U.S. policy toward the Horn of Africa in the next year ought not to be either. The reason for this is simple: diplomatic resources are just not available. This comes at a time, however, when the U.S. is more militarily involved in the region than it ever has been.

Though run by some of the country’s most able diplomats, the U.S. State Department’s Bureau of African Affairs is inadequately equipped. The Bureau is the wing of the American foreign policy machine concerned exclusively with Sub-Saharan Africa, the Horn included. “The fact of the matter is, the Africa Bureau can only deal with two crises in Africa at one time,” Ambassador Tibor P. Nagy told the Bridge. Nagy was U.S. Ambassador to Ethiopia from 1999 to 2002, serving as plenipotentiary for most of the Eritrea-Ethiopia border war.

The question then becomes which two crises? With the spread of al-Qa`ida in the Islamic Maghreb into parts of Mali, the ongoing violence in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and the unresolved issues between the two Sudans, the Horn sits low on the State Department’s list of priorities for the Sub-Saharan Continent.

The attitude of the State Department – and, by extension, the White House – toward the continent is perhaps most easily seen in the department’s budget numbers. For fiscal year 2013 the State Department has requested $222 million for its programs in Africa, $62.1 million less than for Iraq alone. In fiscal year 2011, State spent a whopping $376 million more on Iraq than on all of Sub-Saharan Africa, the Horn only getting a fraction of this amount.

The Department of State is being granted less and less for operations in the Horn of Africa while the Department of Defense is committing more and more. Pentagon activities in the Horn are run by AFRICOM, the U.S. military command responsible for all American armed forces in Africa, Egypt excluded. The command was created in 2007 by President George W. Bush to, according to a White House press release announcing its formation, “respond to security challenges and opportunities in Africa.”

Recently, the Pentagon spent millions of dollars into the refurbishment of an airport in Arba Minch, Ethiopia, just 200 kilometres from the Kenyan border and 600km from Somalia, to facilitate its aerial activities. These developments in southern Ethiopia are dwarfed by U.S. military base Camp Lemonnier, the 200-hectare outpost in Djibouti that houses the Combined Joint Task Force – Horn of Africa (CJTF-HOA). The installation, which was founded a year after the September 11 attacks, is just 130 kilometres from the Yemeni coast and about a dozen from the Somali border.

According to U.S. military officials quoted in the Washington Post in October, the camp is leased from the government of Djibouti for $38 million per year. Moreover, the Pentagon is planning a $1.4 billion expansion of Camp Lemonnier. Compare this figure with the $222 million requested by the State Department for an entire year of operations in all of Sub-Saharan Africa and one can see that the Horn of Africa priorities of the Obama administration are clearly military first, diplomacy second.

This is not to say that in 2013 the U.S. will no longer play a diplomatic role in the Horn. “Of course there will be a [diplomatic] role,” Dr. Ken Menkhaus, professor at Davidson College in North Carolina and former Special Political Advisor to the U.N. Operation in Somalia, told the Bridge. Dr. Menkhaus believes that Obama’s re-election will

allow his administration to change its tone now that domestic concerns such as “partisan considerations about looking soft on national security” are gone.

According to him, the White House can now shift toward “supporting state-building and sustainable solutions to humanitarian crises.” But, without resources, the Africa Bureau cannot be expected to be heavily involved. When asked about the case of Somalia specifically, Dr. Menkhaus said it will similarly see a “quiet but supportive” role from State Department.

On the other hand, with U.S. military operations in Djibouti scheduled to expand, and the same likely in Ethiopia, AFRICOM will be far from just quiet and supportive in the coming year. In addition to military-centred activities, greater U.S. spending could also increase the capacity for more civil-military operations in these countries. In both Ethiopia and Djibouti, for example, U.S. civil-military operations support several health, education, and water initiatives – all of which are crucial concerns for most Horn countries.

Thus, in 2013, while the Africa Bureau continues to be under-resourced, it is the U.S. military that will represent President Obama and America in the Horn in 2013, not U.S. diplomats. Still, for the Horn of Africa Diaspora based in the U.S, Obama is their man. “We are all for Obama and the Democratic Party,” Farhio Khalif told the Bridge. Khalif is the producer and host of The Farhio Show, an online television program popular among Somalis in America. “We like him,” she said hesitantly about the general sentiment toward Obama common among her cohort.

But when asked specifically about Obama’s diplomatic efforts in the Horn, her tone was different: “We have mixed feelings because he didn’t do anything.”

By Andreas Kidane

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After the unexpected death of the Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi, expectations for change in Ethiopia are as

great as the expectation of fear.

The largely unknown young Hailemariam Desalegn (47 years old) has been confirmed as the prime minister of the country before the next general elections in 2015. He is also the new leader of the ruling party, the Ethiopian People Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF).

For 21 years, Meles was the

COVER STORY

ETHIOPIA IN 2013: WILL DESALEGN BE UP FOR THE CHALLENGE?

undisputed ruler - first as president during the transition period and then, after disputed elections in 1995, became the Prime Minister. He ruled the country until his death from an unspecified illness in August 2012. His death raised questions on the likelihood of not only internal stability of the country but of the whole region. Desalegn, with much less experience than his predecessor, is not considered a political heavyweight.

Although Meles was hailed for advancing a comprehensive development agenda in Ethiopia, it

came at the expense of human rights violations. In the New Year, it remains to be seen whether the new young prime minister will seek policies that could balance human rights concerns with the desires for the country’s growth and investment climate.

Under Meles Zenawi, Ethiopia had become a leading regional political, military, and economic powerhouse in East Africa. Of particular importance is the country’s strategic partnership with the U.S. in the Global War on Terrorism. It is up to Desalegn whether he will sustain this and other key relationships

By Amal Ismail



ETHIOPIA

that Meles shaped during his tenure. With regards to the terror threat emanating from Somalia, it is without a doubt that Desalegn will seek to play a crucial role. This was evident by the prime minister’s first mission abroad, attending the inauguration of the new Somali president Hassan Sheikh Mohamud.

Over the next 12 months, the regional role of Ethiopia as a feature of stability in the Horn of Africa will likely be maintained. Especially since the country is involved in large infrastructure projects with its neighbours. One of the key projects in the works is the ongoing Lamu Port-South Sudan-Ethiopia-Transport Project (LAPSSET). The need for this new transport corridor for Ethiopia arose because the conflict with Eritrea rendered the country landlocked and cut it off from the nearest two ports of Massawa and Asab (in Eritrea). Ethiopia currently relies on the port of Djibouti, where it faces exorbitant taxation.

As for Ethiopia’s relationship with Eritrea in 2013 and beyond, there is certainly hope for better understanding between the “Enemy Brothers” under Desalegn’s government. Most experts believe that the major cause of the persistent conflict between Ethiopia and its former province Eritrea was the personal feud between the two leaders, former PM Meles Zenawi and Isaias Afewerki in Asmara. With Meles’ passing, Desalegn has a chance to remedy the two nations’ violent past.

Development and Economy

In economic terms, Zenawi had led his country for many years in an impressive growth stage. An ambitious modernisation and liberalisation program has provoked a new middle class and drawn massive infrastructure development and foreign investment into the country. Although foreign capital is generally welcome, the regulation of the foreign investment activities in the country is still very strict.

With the International Monetary Fund saying in 2008 that Ethiopia’s economy had grown faster than any non-oil exporting country in sub-Saharan Africa, it will be crucial for Desalegn to sustain the momentum if not improve on it, especially to shape up the investment regulation in the country and turn it into a more open market.

Ethiopia receives millions of funds from Western countries every year. Europe, particularly, has traditionally been one of Ethiopia’s most important partners in development cooperation.

EU donors are expected to continue funding Ethiopia’s education sector and food security initiatives to a tune of more than 102 million Euros, at the start of 2013. With Europe as the largest consumers of Ethiopian goods (mainly coffee and the horticultural sector), it is expected that the Ethiopian economy will remain on solid footing and that existing trade relations will be undisturbed throughout 2013.

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In a series of events geared at reconstructing and restoring order in Somalia, the country has not only picked a new president,

but has also adopted a provisional constitution, selected members of Parliament, a new Prime minister and finally a ten member cabinet. Coupled with a determined effort to

SPECIAL REPORT

PROFILE: SOMALIA’S NEW GOVERNMENT

PRESIDENT HASSAN’S PARTY MANIFESTO DESCRIBED HIS MISSION AS, “To construct a civilian state that preserves the basic values of people and at the same time realizes Somalia and the Somalis enjoy reliable security, transparent and accountable governance system which is free from corruption, injustice, misuse and abuse of state power and delivers the necessary public services to the people”.

By Lucy Wanyika push out the al-Shabaab Islamist out of Mogadishu and key areas that the group controlled, this has been no small feat.

But this has not come without any resistance. Barely a day after his election, there was an assassination attempt on his life. Soon after the attempt– which left three soldiers dead - there was an attack at a Mogadishu restaurant that killed

four journalists. Days after this attack, the first Member of Parliament was gunned down as he left a Mosque after the Friday prayers.

Al-Shabaab has claimed responsibility for these attacks, saying that the death of the Member of Parliament, Mustafa Haji Mohamed, was only the beginning of their mission to kill the entire newly elected leadership, one by one.



SOMALIA

But President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud seems to appreciate the fact that if there ever was a risky and demanding job that one can do, then he was certainly it.

Mohamud hit the ground running, first declining to attend the crème de la crème United Nations General Assembly in New York because ‘he had so much work to do’. He declared that restoring peace and order, ensuring the return of security to Mogadishu and in Somalia were his priorities. Quite a tall order for him, but in spite of the attacks by Al Shabab, there is a surge of goodwill and support for the new president, especially from within Somalia’s civil society and from the international community.

Mohamud the former university professor, is described as a civic, political and academic activist. He has remained in Somalia through the 21 year civil unrest unlike most other Somali intellectuals. He has indeed won respect from Somalis by setting himself apart from dirty politics carried out by his peers. He is one of the founders of the Somali Institute of Management and Administration Development (SIMAD), now a University in Mogadishu, and served as its first dean before resigning to enter into politics.

Mohamud was born in 1955 in Jalalaqsi where he finished his basic academic and Islamic education. He later moved to Mogadishu to join the Somali National University to pursue a Degree in Technical Engineering. Thereafter he joined the Ministry of Education as a teacher.

History of Activism

Following the collapse of the Somali Central Government in 1991, Mohamud joined UNICEF as an education officer and soon

established the first primary school (since the collapse) three years later. His main focus was reviving the education sector within community based projects. In the following years he became more involved in civil society groups aiming to promote peace and order in a precariously order-less state. Mohamud was actively involved in the formation of pressure groups calling for dialogue amongst warring segments of the

Somali leadership.

In early 2001, he joined the Centre of Research and Dialogue as a researcher; working in post conflict reconstruction, a job which required extensive travel throughout Somalia gathering important information on the locals’ issues, priorities and views.

In late 2005, Mohamud was chosen to lead the Civil Society in Mogadishu in the formation of the Civil Society

Prof. Mohamed Osman Jawari, Speaker of Somalia Parliament

Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, President of Somalia

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SPECIAL REPORT

Forum which was a conglomerate of networks, action groups and coalitions.

Thereafter in 2009/2010 he worked in the Ministry of Planning and International Cooperation as a consultant in establishing the Somali Aid Coordination and Management Unit within the Ministry.

Politics

Mohamud joined politics in 2011 forming the Peace and Development Party. Seemingly new in the political arena, Mohamud was first elected as an MP only a month prior to his election as a president in the newly formed Federal Parliament of Somalia.

His party manifesto described his mission as, “To construct a civilian state that preserves the basic values of people and at the same time realizes Somalia and the Somalis enjoy reliable security, transparent and accountable governance system which is free from corruption, injustice, misuse and abuse of state power and delivers the necessary public services to the people”.

While Mohamud is reputed to be a member of al-Islah, the Somali branch of the Muslim brotherhood, he is described to be a moderate Islamist and strongly opposed to the al-Shabaab militia. However, he has managed to hold talks with them and SIMAD remains the only institution untouched by the extremist group al-Shabaab.

Al-Islah has been credited with various philanthropic activities within the country mainly focused on the development of the education sector in the wake of clan-based conflicts.

Presidency

On 10 September 2012, the Somali parliament elected Mohamud as the new President of Somalia. Being the first time since the overthrow of Said Barre in 1991 that a president has been chosen within the Somali borders, this is a development noted by the United Nations as a sign of improving security.

The new president has stated that he will work closely with the International community towards the reconstruction of his country.

Mohamud, married to two wives with several children, both in Somalia and in the Diaspora, seems to be driven to build a Somalia that will support the development of the younger generation.

Prime Minister and Cabinet

A few weeks after his election, President Mohamud named a Prime Minister, Abdi Farah Shirdon. An economist and political newcomer, Abdi Farah ran an import business in Kenya before his appointment. After the prime minister’s appointment

was approved by parliament, he proceeded to form a cabinet.

The formation of a new cabinet, which was sworn in mid-November, had both the Somali and the International community lauding the president and the prime minister for achieving a number of firsts. With only ten members, this is the leanest cabinet in Somalia’s history.

For the first time in Somalia’s history as well, the ministry of Foreign Affairs is headed by a woman, Fozia Yusuf Haji Aden, who also doubles as a deputy Prime Minister.

There is another woman in the cabinet, Maryan Qasim Ahmed, who is the minister of Development and Social Affairs. The selection of the two women into the cabinet is seen as a huge political victory for Somali women who have struggled to obtain political rights.

The new cabinet has two ministers from each of the four major clans — Hawiye, Darod, Dir and Rahanweyn — and two from the minority coalition.

Fawzia Yusuf Haji Aden, Foreign Minister of Somalia



SOMALIA

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INVESTMENT

ria 8.9 percent, Ethiopia 8.4 percent, Chad, 7.9 percent, Mozambique, 7.9 percent and Rwanda 7.6 percent.

This data was shared during the 2012 Highway Africa Conference, an annual ICT conference hosted by Rhodes Uni-versity in Grahamstown, South Africa. The conference is the continent’s larg-

The world’s top 10 fastest grow-ing economies include six Afri-can countries namely Angola, Nigeria, Ethiopia, Chad, Mo-

zambique and Rwanda.

According to the International Mon-etary Fund (IMF), of the 10, Angola has experienced an 11.1 growth rate, Nige-

est annual gathering of over 600 African journalists, policy makers, ICT experts, social activists and notables from the Academia.

In his key note address Richard Mk-hondo said, “It’s time to recognise the emergence of a new Africa”, Mkhondo, MTN’s Group Executive for Corporate

AFRICA: A NEW FRONTIER FOR INVESTMENT

By Edward Machar



lived overseas are returning home to provide valuable resources: their brainpower and enthusiasm”.

African currencies have also been getting more stable, inflation in most countries is in check. Additionally, the income of many African nationals has been rising steadily. This has led to sig-nificant investment in infrastructure and growth in the telecommunica-tions industries.

Africa is feeling the impact of infor-mation and communication technol-ogy; as technology is not limited to the sector in which it is produced, but rather spreads to all sectors of produc-tion and consumption. This is true for mobile telephony in Africa.

Hailing the advances made by Mo-bile telephony in Africa, Richard Mk-hondo said that even though it is still significantly below the saturation lev-els of the developed world, it has con-tributed to economic development in Africa in a positive and significant way.

“For one, Africa invented Mobile Money, which is now being adopted by the developed world as a reliable payment system”, he added.

Indeed, infrastructure, while improv-ing, still remains inadequate; and young Africans - impatient for change, innovation and increasingly well-ed-ucated - are using mobile technolo-gies to solve problems presented by poor services and political stagnation, transforming everything from agricul-ture to healthcare.

“Africa has realised that it cannot be left behind when it comes to globali-sation. A new Africa is emerging, pow-ered by capitalism, embracing glo-balisation and finally shaking off the shackles of colonisation, the begging bowl syndrome and the cold war that proved so crippling to development,” said Mkhondo.

Affairs, said that Sub-Sahara Africa is now considered the world’s second fastest growing region after Asia.

The United Nations says foreign direct investment (FDI) in the region has in-creased from $9 billion in 2000 to more than $88 billion today.

“For decades, Africa was often depict-ed as a continent of starving children, flies in their mouths and malnourished bellies, families decimated by AIDS, or adults in raggedy clothes walking past the decaying corpses of animals beside a dusty road, running away from their war-torn country into the neighbouring country’s makeshift tents”, said Mkhon-do. “For years these pictures and politi-cal instability formed negative percep-tions about the continent, prompting analysts and the media to describe Af-rica as a waste basket case, a Dark Con-tinent” he stressed.

But these descriptions and percep-tions are changing fast. Now Africa is described as a continent of emerging markets and rising skyscrapers lining the horizon. African cities are today teeming with educated graduates hun-gry for opportunities, a thriving small business environment, emerging min-eral wealth and economies which have doubled in size during this century.

Mkhondo said perceptions are chang-ing too, thanks to the rising number of democratically elected governments, the disappearing violent conflicts, scar-city of wars and coups, ebbing inflation, innovative business executives, and rising foreign investment from other emerging markets – mostly China, Bra-zil, and India.

“Of course the rising commodity pric-es of oil, aluminum, cotton, diamonds and other minerals has also fueled this growth”, he said.

He further noted that “A more open political and economic climate has meant that Africans who worked and

In a separate occasion, Professor Ian Goldin of the Oxford University and a former economic advisor to Nelson Mandela, named Africa as the new in-vestment hotspot.

One of the keynote speakers during the Africa Hotel Investment Forum held in Nairobi in late September, Professor Goldin described the economic outlook for Africa in the coming decade, and the changes taking place on the continent as truly dramatic.

Goldin painted a promising picture of the continent, making six predictions on the future of Africa; that by 2020, Africa will: 1) be the fastest growing continent; 2) experience the most rapid growth in the consumption of consumer goods; 3) have the greatest improvements in in-vestment climate; 4) have a population that will grow to double that of Europe; 5) will have the world’s youngest labour force and in the following decades, its size will overtake China’s and India’s; and finally 6) have inequality gaps re-duced while increasing in the rest of the world.

But to accelerate this momentum of growth, African governments should champion the setting up of the scene for private sector participation. Such development models must rest on the pillars of political stability, property rights, access to capital and investment in the health and education sectors.

Governments need to develop the right policies and incentives for ideas, capital and businesses to circulate and develop.

“This will help establish sound, sus-tainable business institutions and investment and development of in-frastructure, build transport links and constructing solid strategies,” said Mk-hondo.

AFRICA

23THE BRIDGE



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BUSINESS PROFILE

the two parties will sign another peace agreement, that the oil will start flowing again, that there will be many investors and other visitors streaming back into South Sudan, and that the biting infla-tion will start to dissipate in about three to four months!

Now that’s a lot of optimism!

But it has taken many years to build both this optimism and petal business empire in South Sudan.

“I started doing business in Sudan way back in 1983,” says Patel during an exclu-sive interview with the Bridge in Nairobi. “I was running a logistics company that supported the transportation and distri-bution of relief commodities to over 200

Sudhir Patel has stuck it out in South Sudan since 1983, which was just at the beginning of a very tumultu-ous two-decade civil war between

the North and South. He has seen the coun-try move from civil war to cease fire, to the signing of the Comprehensive Peace Accord and finally to the Independence of South Sudan. He started his logistics business in JUBA and was denied entry into Southern Sudan during those fighting years after being labelled an ally of the SPLA, but he did not move far away from the borders of South Sudan. He was back into the South as soon as the CPA was signed.

South Sudan feels like home to Petal, and with the latest emerging conflict over oil between the South and North, Sudhir firmly believes that this is a passing cloud, that

villages in the South Sudan. Unfortunately, that did not last very long. In 1987, I was branded ‘a sympathiser of the SPLA’ by Khar-toum and denied re entry visa into Sudan”

A set back after four years of operation in Sudan, but Patel did not gave up his deter-mination; he winded up his operations in Juba and set up a new base in Kenya’s Lo-kichoggio border town.

At Loki (as Lokichoggio is commonly re-ferred to) Patel grew to also opened refu-elling facility, which soon became a lifeline operation for aircrafts working to deliver relief into South Sudan.

A real entrepreneur, when he set up base at Loki, Patel saw the potential in opening an accommodation facility. That is how in

SUDHIR PATEL: A LOVE AFFAIR WITH SOUTH SUDANDOING BUSINESS IN SOUTH SUDAN THROUGH THE YEARS


Juba Raha Camp



SOUTH SUDAN

1987, he also opened up the Kate Camp right adjacent to the United Nations, start-ing with just three tents.

According to Petal, “In 1993, the United Nations started OPERATION LIFELINE –SU-DAN, and the airport at Loki became very busy. It was also the time when the war was at a critical stage and there was a huge hu-manitarian crisis in the South,” remembers Petal. “The relief operations of air-dropping food and other commodities were exorbi-tantly expensive and our logistics and trans-portation business began to grow quickly to include a fleet of over 60 six wheel drive ex-Military trucks. There were virtually no roads in Southern Sudan and the only pos-sibility of land transportation was using these rugged six wheel drive vehicles.”

Eventually, Kate Camp grew to become a modern accommodation facility with 200 rooms, and almost all the crew of the vari-ous aircraft operating from Loki were resi-dents at the Camp. In addition, the camp accommodated NGO’s like UNWFP, UNICEF, CRS, World vision, PSF and MSF. It was a unique camp because for a long time it ac-commodated senior members of both the SPLM and the splinter group RAAS, some of whom later became senior members and even ministers in the newly Independent country.

“As soon as the CPA was signed, business moved from Loki back into Juba, not just for me but for most organisations offering relief to South Sudan”, said Patel.

Back in Juba, Patel partnered with others to construct the KCB Plaza, which at the time, in 2007, was the only modern state of the art building in Juba. He also opened up a hotel in the heart of Juba Town, Juba Raha Camp, which is well remembered as the base of the LRA peace talks for almost two years. In 2006, there were no facilities for personnel from NGOs and visitors to South-ern Sudan and Juba Raha became the first Camp in Juba offering Luxury tented ac-commodation with attached washroom fa-cilities. Today, it has changed from a “tented Camp” to a modern hotel with 80 rooms and 20 offices that are rented by various NGOs and businesses.

Yet another venture in the hospitality field was completed the following year, Paradise Hotel, with 45 rooms and four different restaurants. Paradise Hotel is an upmarket

through Loki that should connect the two countries is non existent. On the other hand, the road network between Uganda and South Sudan is in much better condi-tion. This has meant that even small busi-nesses in Uganda have made a lot of money trading with Juba” , he stressed.

Patel explains that the road network be-tween Kenya and Juba is so bad that trucks transporting goods from the port of Mom-basa to Juba find it much easier, much safer and more convenient to travel through Uganda than going through Lokichoggio road which should be much shorter.

facility and attracts many senior govern-ment officials, expatriates and visitors. Paradise Hotel is now the number one provider of outside catering services for ministries, UN bodies, embassies and other businesses.

“There has been tremendous growth in Juba in just these last years between 2005 and 2012, moving from zero ho-tels to about 200 hotels!” says Patel. “A lot of foreigners have moved in to invest in Juba, especially Ugandans. Kenyans have not been so aggressive in the South Sudan market, mainly because the road

Sudhir Patel, The Director of Juba Raha and Paradise Hotel in Juba

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BUSINESS PROFILE

Paradise Hotel

Challenges

Patel’s stay and love for South Sudan has not been without its fair share of challenges.

“I find one of the biggest challenges of do-ing business in South Sudan to be the issue of land ownership. As a foreign investor, you cannot own land in South Sudan, you have to lease it from the locals, and that at exorbitant fees. For instance, to let a 40m by 30m plot of undeveloped piece of land, nothing on it, just soil, will cost about USD 2000 per month. To rent a five bedroom house on about half an acre will cost about USD 12,000 per month! This is way out of reach for most businesses that would want to do business here.

And the business environment has been further complicated by the ongoing stand off between the two Sudans and the shutting off of the oil supply in the South. The situation is economically hurting both sides, and Patel has felt it too in his businesses.

“Since the oil stopped flowing, so did the dollars. With no oil exports, there is an acute

shortage of dollars in the South. Where the official exchange rate has been 3.16 Sudanese pounds to the dollar, it has now shot up to 5 pounds to the dollar in the black market. Consequently, the price of everything has gone up. Almost all con-sumables and most foods and essential commodities in South Sudan are imported, and the entire economy is based on the dollar. The resulting inflation means most things are unaffordable to the majority of the population, and therefore their spend-ing power is taken away. And this situation affects all businesses, including hotels.

The other problem is uncertainty. Patel-says that there are fears in many quarters that the two Sudans might go back to war. A lot of visitors and potential investors to South Sudan are therefore holding back and watching to see what happens.

“But personally I feel very optimistic about the current situation,” says Patel “We shall overcome this and move on to better days. My dream is to invest more in South

Sudan, especially in the industrial and ag-ricultural sector. Agriculturally, the country is very rich, with the Nile river flowing right through the centre of South Sudan. The soil here is very fertile and has been uncultivat-ed for many decades, mainly due to war”

With hardly any large scale farming yet to take hold of South Sudan, and with a vast potential for tourism to develop here, Sud-hir Patel may well be one of the pioneer in-vestors in what is potentially a world full of opportunities in South Sudan.

“It might take some time for everything to run properly and for legislations to be passed that will make it easier for investors to work here, but I am extremely happy in South Sudan; Extremely happy!”



BUSINESS PROFILE

DAHABSHIIL: THE MAKER OF LIQUID GOLD


Dahabshiil, which is Somali for ‘the gold melter’, is a ‘rags to riches’ story of an African entrepreneur who lost ev-

erything during the Somali civil war. With nothing but a strong network of contacts, he set about rebuilding the company which two decades later is now the largest African-owned money transfer business in the world. Dahabshiil was founded by Mo-hamed Said Duale more than forty years ago. He opened his first shop in Burao, the regional capital of Togdheer province in North-West Somalia, now known as So-maliland. He started off by selling imported goods from Gulf states on behalf of Somali migrant workers and transferring the pro-ceeds back to their families.

The business collapsed as civil war broke out across Somalia, forcing more than a mil-lion Somalis to flee and seek refuge all over the world. With limited resources, Duale used his experience to set up a new remit-tance venture, enabling Somali refugees to send money and goods to displaced family members.

Over the next two and half decades, Mr. Duale, with the support of his staff and his son, Abdirashid Duale, who worked in the shop while also attending school, expand-ed the business to become the leading money transfer company in the Horn of Af-rica and beyond. Dahabshiil now operates in many African countries including Ugan-da, Rwanda, Sudan, South Sudan, Kenya , and Ethiopia. It serves migrant communi-ties all over the world and is fully compliant with international regulations.

Dahabshiil made banking history when in 2009 it launched the first ever debit card in the Somali territories. It also opened the Dahabshil Bank in Djibouti which is opera-tional in some parts of the Somali territories as well

Abdirashid Duale, the current CEO of Da-habshiil, has worked for the company since his school days, helping his father develop what was a small family business into a global firm operating in more than 150 countries. He has committed his company to increasing financial inclusion in develop-

ing countries, and has been an integral part of the economic development in the Horn region.

The company is involved in commu-nity regeneration projects. It invests five percent of its profits each year into such activities, including the development of schools, hospitals, agriculture, sanitation and infrastructure. This amounts to mil-lions of dollars annually.

The company’s humanitarian efforts during recurrent food crisis have includ-ed partnership with leading aid agencies in the delivery of a ‘cash for food’ pro-gramme, involving money transfers to beneficiaries for the purchase of food in local markets.

With headquarters in the Somali terri-tories, the United Kingdom, and Dubai, Dahabshiil provides services to some of the world’s leading humanitarian organ-isations, including the United Nations and international NGOs.

Dahabshiil is also currently spearhead-ing initiatives consisting of partnerships with development organisations in an effort to establish sustainable financial products to meet the needs of poor com-munities.

Abdirashid Duale has established a reputation as an expert in the remit-tance industry, and has vast experience

in all areas of money transfer operations. He has gained a reputation as a regular key-note speaker at international and regional conferences, including those organised by The School of Oriental and African Studies, International Fund for Agricultural Devel-opment, The London School of Economics, Oxford University, the African Development Bank and the British Houses of Parliament. He speaks about remittances, telecommu-nications and development issues.

Abdirashid Duale has won several awards. This year he was independently selected out of nearly 700 candidates as one of the top 50 most influential people in Africa by the respected publication, The Africa Report. In addition to this he was recently awarded Top Manager of the Year by the International Association of Money Transfer Networks in recognition of the outstanding services that the firm offers its clients. He has also received the UK’s Mayor of Tower Hamlets award for excellence in the com-munity, which recognises what it describes as the “outstanding contribution” Dahab-shiil has made to the local, national, and international Somali community over the last forty years.

The story of Dahabshiil, which started off as one small shop, is an inspiration to many people, especially Africans. It has overcome many challenges in a difficult part of the world, and proves that hard work, commit-ment, professionalism, and resilience can yield large dividends .

Abdirashid Duale, CEO of Dahabshiil,

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DJIBOUTIEAST AFRICA HOLDINGS IN DJIBOUTI

The size of the plot on which the East Africa Holdings stands is 100,000m2, with an open yard for future expan-sion of 80,000m2. Other notable speci-fications of the East Africa Holdings include: a warehouse size of 9,300M2

with the dry warehouse at 5,000m2, the freezer stores at 3,200M2 and the load-ing and unloading area situated just in front of the dry stores at 1,100m2

The total capacity for dry container storage is at over 2000 40 FC Units while that of the freezer container plug in facility is 20 units. The loading docks for dry containers are 10 units. Docks Shelter house for chill and freezer con-tainers loading/offloading all add up to

East Africa Holdings, one of the larg-est entities, of its kind, in the Horn of Africa, offers logistic solutions

including public warehousing, contract distribution, dry, chill and frozen stor-age space, Inventory management, third party logistics and open storage. Built at a cost of about US$40 million, East Af-rica Holdings also offers reefer container holding facilities, Dry containers holding facilities, supplier management and pool distribution.

Based in Djibouti, this is an ultra modern facility equipped with state of the art fea-tures. Its client base includes both inter-national NGOs and locally based foreign troop bases among others.

40units.The company’s Office blocks sits

1,568m2.

Security

Ample security is guaranteed with an all round concrete perimeter wall of 2.5 meters constructed with razor wire. There are plans to install CCTV with digital vid-eo recording to enhance the existing se-curity measures.

All the employees and suppliers are screened and back ground checks car-ried out prior to engaging them with East African Holdings. All vehicles are also screened prior to entering the facility.

ADVERTORIAL



EAST AFRICA

East Africa Holdings SARL,PK 12, Route No 19Republic of Djibouti

Tel: +253 21 340218+253 21 353844Cell: +253 77 681116

[email protected]@gsk-group.comwww.gsk-group.com

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By Abukar Arman

On September 10, 2012, the newly appointed parliament has heeded the call of its citizens and elected Hassan

Sheikh Mohamud as the President of post transition Somalia.

That historic date would be remembered as the one that underscored two significant realities: the resilience of the Somali people as they demonstrated their unwavering commitment to reclaim their nation, and how the will of the people enhanced with consolidated political objectives changed the course of national history.

The former would not have been possible without the persistence that motivates the Somali nomad to overcome adversities and to survive severe drought by migrating to greener pastures, and the hope that motivates the farmer to plough the field

COMMENTARY

CAN SOMALIA’S POLITICAL DISCONTENT INSPIRE TRANSFORMATION?

Exhausted by prolonged anarchy, chronic dependency, cancerous corruption, and humiliating subjugation, the Somali people demanded change. Not just change of guard or principled actors, but a total overhaul of the political order of the day.

and sow the seed and have faith in the germination process that takes place beneath the earth. And the latter would not have been possible if it were not for the foresight, agency and negotiations of various grassroots political activists who were determined to pave a new political pathway against all odds.

How likely is that pathway to lead to transformation and to the salvation of the nation?

The answer would depend on two critical factors. First, whether the following principal actors would work in cooperative cohesion or would carry on in a similar disarray and frustration that has lately been the norm in Somalia. Second, whether or not they would embrace these or similar priorities.

New Parliament: Diligently asserting the Parliament’s legislative authority and never forgetting to differentiate

the common good from all other political interests; Upholding the honour of the Parliament as the most important institution in the nation and preventing any revolving door scenario, hence, publicly censuring anyone who might try to jump ship and abandon his or her position after failing to achieve his or her myopic political objective and lastly completing the Provisional Constitution by immediately making all necessary amendments for that document to exclusively represent the common interest of Somalia and Somalis.

New President: Never forgetting that,

other than God, it is being there with the people as an advocate and as a provider of direly needed services that made his ascendency and undisputable mandate possible, and that squandering such support is unfathomable; Becoming the catalyst for reconciliation and a Somali-centric political order in which Somalis handle their own domestic affairs in their own country while keeping in mind that



SOMALIA

no foreign interest groups in the form of an individual or a nation has more rights to Somalia than the citizen of that nation; Transparently making decisions based on “Is it ethical?” “Is it good for Somalia?” and “What are the long-term consequences?” And keeping in mind that neither security nor political stability could be sustained without sustained public support and gaining such support without transparency to help heal the cynicism of hearts and the minds of a traumatised nation is a hopeless endeavour.

New Prime Minister: Assembling a competent team of ministers with sense of enlightened nationalism, a team that is free of the obsolete ideals of irredentism or military claim of Somali-inhabited territories that are administered by foreign states; Crafting a viable strategy for governmental reform and institutional capacity-building with specific deadlines and accountability component, and appointing an independent ad hoc committee to oversee implementation process and progress; Appointing another team of Somali experts as Foreign Policy Advisory to help craft the government’s foreign relations priorities, also on policies towards countries with shared strategic interests of economic, political, and social nature. Likewise, appointing a team of experts as Defence Policy Advisory to help craft the administration’s National Defence Strategy that is more comprehensive than the publicly circulated National Security and Stabilisation Plan whose central focus was on the current threat posed by al-Shabaab without offering specific dates on when an adequate national army to replace AMISOM would be ready. And lastly, to appoint a team of experts as Economic Policy Advisory to recommend national assets recovery strategy, investment attraction, job creation, and so on.

The Somali People: Calibrating expectation as the current political, social, economic, and sectarian problems neither developed overnight nor could they be solved overnight and keeping in mind that every positive initiative or action might not yield clearly positive outcome in the immediate sense; AcceptAing the self-evident fact that Somalis, as individuals, clans, and regions are interdependent politically, economically, and socially for their collective survival; Assisting the government to cultivate a critical mass-

a grassroots foot soldiers for positive societal transformation and doing away with all the failed models of the past two decades.

Al-Shabaab: Remembering the Prophet Muhammad’s teaching that a true person of faith is not bitten from the same snake hole twice, and that militant extremism leads to nowhere other than failure, destruction, and death; Trading violence and extremism with dialogue and reconciliation and keeping in mind that people are in dire need for service and that service-delivery is almost an impossibility during wars; Realising that as a nation we have already lost an entire generation to this senseless conflict, and that in Islam people are obligated to earnestly accept peace when extended to them, and even in just causes, armed struggle is justified only after all dialogue and diplomatic options were hopelessly exhausted.

The United Nations: Decommissioning the United Nations Political Office for Somalia as keeping such an office operating in Mogadishu clearly undermines the political and functional authority of the new government. The Special Representative of the Secretary-General for Somalia is broadly seen as the “Colonial Governor” wielding unchecked power granted by an external source; To recognise the “environmental ticking bomb” in the Somali coast by issuing tough resolutions banning the illegal hyper-fishing and dumping radio-active waste in the Somali waters; Third, lifting the arms embargo as it has lost its effectiveness. It has never prevented the illegal flow of arms into Somalia; it only prevented the government from getting even light arms through the legal means.

African Union and IGAD: Recognising Somalia’s emergence out of the transitional period and how it is bent on handling its own affairs; Stopping the front-line states’ well documented fuelling of the Somali fratricide by supporting one favourite group against another and preventing the front-line states’ direct impositions and exploitation by maritime land grab.

Somali Civil Societies: Recognising that the new President would be counted as one of the civil societies’ own and as such would share the positive and, God forbid,

the negatives; Committing to neutrality for the sake of the people and the nation by assisting the new government when it is doing the right thing, correcting it when its wrong, and opposing it if it ever goes off track or astray; Promoting self-correction by exposing those among the civil societies who still have their heads stuck in clan-centric gutters or have established a pattern of playing the role of political arsonists.

Republic of Turkey: Expanding its successful humanitarian and development projects and creating jobs by partnering with local entrepreneurs, businesses, and service providing organisations; Utilising the political and social capital to advance the reconciliation process, especially between the government and al-Shabaab and assisting in the institutional-building process, including the security apparatus.

The United States of America: Re-examining its counter-terrorism focused Dual-Track Policy toward Somalia; Formally reactivating its old bi-lateral relationship with Somalia which has been dormant for over two decades and investing in this newly emerging market.

Though broad-based discontent, desire to seek a better alternative, steady flow of brain-gain and all other necessary elements for change are there, sustainable environment conducive for societal transformation still needs cultivation. And that, of course, would require the collective effort of more than one group.

So, until these aforementioned streams of influence confluence and their various troikas accept to pull the weight to the same direction, saving Maandeeq (Somalia) would be extremely arduous if not impossible. Certainly brighter future is ahead for Somalia as with difficulties come ease. However, along the way, it would be utterly naïve to expect blue sky every day.

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Abukar Arman is the Somalia Special Envoy to the United States. He is also a widely published political analyst. On Twitter @AbukarArman

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ART & CULTURE

FINALLY IN MOGADISHU!

THE FIRST THREE DAYS IN SOMALIA were spent with my mother’s rela-tives in Mogadishu. Re-visiting my birthplace for the first time in 22 years proved to be a chaotic and fearful en-counter with gunshots, isolation, and unsettling poverty. Not exactly what I had hoped for, but then this was Moga-dishu, it was expected.

By Nasrin Billie

Nasrin Billie, a Danish-Somali journalist decides to visit Somalia, the country of her birth, after almost two decades away in Europe. Her memories of Somalia are scant, her family left when she was too young to remember. This is Part two of her story in which she recounts her first impres-sions of her motherland , from when she lands at the Mogadishu Airport .

conversation went well, until the woman on the other end asked a question I had not prepared for: But how will we recognise you?

Faduma read the panic in my eyes, as I was searching for words that would describe my appearance. Fadumo then grabbed the phone and replied firmly, that I would call them from the airport upon landing.

Phew! The uneasy moment had been saved!

Airport highjackMinutes to landing in Somalia, and

I am looking down from my window seat in the airplane, savouring every

Immediately after I had secured my flight to Somalia, the next step was to establish contact with my rela-tives, who had agreed to meet me

at the Mogadishu International airport.

I called the telephone number my mother had given me. It was a distant relative on the other end and I intro-duced myself in broken Somali. I have the habit of speaking Danish at home even though I hear my mother tongue Somali spoken to me on a daily basis and as a result, I feel uneasy when I try to speak it.

I had jotted down a few expressions in Somali and beside me was my cousin Fadumina’s housemaid Faduma. The

bit of the country that I can. It looks like a concrete floor framed by sand dunes and the deep blue sea that stretches for miles and miles on. But first things first, locating and recognising my unknown relatives.

Luckily, I received immediate help from a woman who rushed to my side as soon as I set foot in the arrival hall. But her help was too forward and too fast. It felt like I had been hijacked not welcomed. I started getting the suspi-cion that this overly kind gesture was after something, I just couldn’t imme-diately establish whether that was my money, my passport, or my luggage.

She handed me a yello form to fill in



ART & CULTURE

point, I heard a sharp sound that I would come to hear many times over during my stay. The firing of an AK47. Ka ka ka. I froze for a second, and a security guard took notice. He said laughingly: ”Have you never heard gunshots before?” I had not. The shots were fired in the air in an attempt to scare off the large group of children lurking around the airport, looking to pickpocket passengers.

Among the crowd waiting on the other side of the exit, were two wom-en dressed in black from head to toe. The only visible thing were their eyes. They recognised me, greeted me with kisses on my cheeks, and seemed gen-uinely happy and relieved to see me.

I took out my purse, because I want-ed to tip the woman helper. As I took out five dollars, each of my hosts started pinching my arm as a discrete way of showing their discontent with the size of tip I was about to give. We settled on four dollars instead.

Fear and AK47s in abundanceThe two women were cousins. Na-

dia was married to my uncle Osman, and she and her cousin Leila were neighbours. They were both about 25 years old and very talkative. We sat crammed in several minibusses on the way to their home in Shibis District near the old sea port. The drive took about 45 minutes and they spoke the entire time.

Meanwhile, I sat silently in fear and excitement. We slowly bumped along the crowded and potholed dirt road. The ”conductors” would scream and shout as they tried to squeeze more passengers into the bus. The sound of car horns were deafening. The streets were full of people, animals, cars and military tanks.

Everywhere I looked, I saw men car-rying AK47s. Some were soldiers in army uniforms, others policemen. I feared that one of these guns would

my details and explained that it was her job to accommodate new arrivals, perhaps sensing my apprehension. But soon after, she started ordering me around; do this and do that. After tak-ing all I could, and not appreciating her rushing me, I had to say to her that I was perfectly capable of handling matters on my own and in my own time. She retired, only to return when I found my place in the immigration control line.

The case of the missing 50 dollar billAt the counter, the clerk demanded

50 dollars for a visa. I handed him a 100 dollar bill, and he gave a 50 dollar bill in return. The pushy woman, now behind me, 40-something-year-old in a black hijab, pushed me toward another coun-ter, where clerks checked passports.

Somewhere between the passport control, the security check and the exit, I lost the 50 dollar bill I had been given as change for my visa fee. But I only discovered this much later. Some-how, someone, could be the pushy woman, or the security guards or even the clerks, had got hold of my money. Damn!

Finally at the exit, the busy body help-er proved herself useful. She picked out a mobile phone and offered to call my relatives. It turned out that those, who had come for me in place of my uncle Osman as earlier agreed, had been re-fused entry to the airport, so I had to go and meet with them outside.

i was greeted by heat, gunshots, and four friendly eyes.

I stepped out of the airport and into Somalia. The Somali air was warm and windy as we stepped out on me sandy pathway. In Kenya, I had put on several layers of clothing to keep myself warm. Now all these clothes clung onto my body, while the wind grabbed my thin shaash (headscarf ), leaving my neck exposed.

As I approached a final gated exit

go off any minute, and I felt like an easy target as I was seated in the back of the bus with my back and head exposed.

Finally, we reached my uncle Osman’s neighbourhood. I was struck by how the war had left Mogadishu in sham-bles. Ruined buildings, unpaved, rocky roads, waste dumped everywhere. The streets were populated with men in shirts and trousers, women in colour-ful hijabs and black niqabs, skinny live-stock and shoeless children.

Gazing out of a bullet holed windowOsman lives with his wife, their four

small children and his ageing mother, Aisha. Aisha is the second wife to my grandmother’s brother-in-law, and this is how we are related. The family lives in a house full of bullet holes, which is owned by Osman’s brother-in-law. Os-man is jobless, and so the family de-pends on the money that relatives in Europe and the U.S. send via Dahabshiil (a money transfer company).

The family placed me in a spacious room complete with new funiture, and each day I was served delicious and enourmous meals – despite their pov-erty. They warned me about ventur-ing out on my own. They feared, that I would be recognissed as a foreigner and taken hostage by either the gov-ernment or al-Shabaab.

The first two days in Somalia were spent gazing out of the bullet-holed window in my room. I would press my face up against the net and listen to the whistling trees. I enjoyed the fresh cool air and spent hours staring at bypass-ers, while jotting down my experience of being in Somalia.

On the third day, my father’s relatives, my aunt and her young son came to vis-it me. We had never met before. Luck-ily, they vowed to show me their part of town, the Waberi district, near the air-port. I was thrilled!

33THE BRIDGE



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By Emil Gundel

It is difficult to put a collective la-bel on the paintings of Rifki A. Bamakhrama. His paintings take us through the abstract to impres-

sionist style to realism and ranges from the simplistic to the impressively intri-cate. It is a better to discard the notion of labeling the artist, and to appreci-ate the various influences and let the paintings speak undisturbed of their inherent emotions and stories.

Trying to understand what an art-ist tries to tell with a painting is often both futile and pointless it is. However , worthwhile to try and understand the life an artist has lived, in order to ap-preciate the nuances and decipher the references of their paintings.

ART & CULTURE

A PALETTE OF COLORS: THE WORKS OF RIFKI BAMAKHRAMA

Rifki Bamakhrama is a Djiboutian a born into an artistic family; his father was a musician, which laid the foun-dation for his interests in the arts. Rifki Bamakhrama’s artistic talents were fostered in both his elementary school and high school where he was taught colouring and drawing. He states himself that: “The colonial edu-cational system offered many sub-jects but I had a particular preference for painting, poetry and drama…” His artistic development was put on hold when he went to France to finish high school and begin his undergraduate studies in sociology, languages, and drama at l’Université Albert 1e.

After Djibouti gained its indepen-dence on 27 June 1977, Rifki Ba-makhrama went back home and was appointed to several cultural institu-tions including Theatre des Salines and the People’s Palace. His inten-tion in going back to Djibouti was to help with the reconstruction of the country. Although he slowly gave up his hobby of painting for some time, he feels that his work from 1979 through 1992 with the popular arts, modern drama and singing “played a role in constructing a national iden-tity among Djiboutians regardless of their cultural and educational back-grounds”.

During this period he was led to a path back towards his art, and strangely enough, the path led to politics. He became involved in poli-tics through the Theatre de Salines and in 1992 he quit his works in the cultural fields to devote himself to

politics. Rifki Bamakhrama served at the head of several consecutive minis-tries between May 1996 and May 2011. It was during these years dedicated to politics that he returned to painting. In his own words, he says, “the brush and colour palette became my safe haven from the pressure that comes with pol-itics.” It seems possible that political motives have seeped into the works of Rifki Bamakhrama even as he sought to distance himself from that world, but that judgment seems best left to the individual viewer.

Since withdrawing from politics in 2011, he has become a full time paint-er.

The paintings of Rifki Bamakhrama, which even to the untrained eye clear-ly draw inspiration from classical and modern European painting styles, Is-lamic arts and stretches as far as art from the far East, is worth more than a brief consideration.

His book, Palette of Colors is a most recommendable buy as it gives you a myriad of examples of his beautiful works.

Palette of Colors is available for pur-chase from Rifki Bamakhrama’s web-site http://www.rifki-aab.com/ which is worth a view in itself to give you a preview of his paintings.

Rifki A. Bamakhrama



THE BRIDGE

www.thebridgem.com 01 SEPTEMBER 2012

COVER STORY: A Glimmer of Hope For SOMALIA. PAGE 12

THEMonthly Business and Sociopolitical Magazine in the Horn of Africa September | 01| 2012

Volume 01 | Issue 27

REBuIlDInGSomalia

PRICE: Djibouti DJF950, Kenya KSH300, S,Sudan SSP7.5, Ethiopia ETB40, Somaliland SSH9.000, UAE AED11, Puntland, PSH45.000.

Even with the best chance at peace

in two decades, healing Somalia will

require a comprehensive long term

strategy, not a quick fix. PAGE 15.


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december 2012 - january issue 2013

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