december 2012 1 - cequence...
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December 2012 1
Forward-Looking Information and Definitions
Certain information included in this presentation constitutes forward-looking information under applicable securities legislation. This information relates to future events or future performance of the Company. Investors are cautioned that reliance on such information may not be appropriate for making investment decisions. Many factors could cause the Company’s actual results, performance or achievements to vary from those described herein. The forward-looking information contained in this presentation is expressly qualified by this and other cautionary statements set forth in the continuous disclosure record of the Company.
Total resources is that quantity of petroleum that is estimated to exist originally in naturally occurring accumulations. It includes that quantity of petroleum that is internally estimated, at a given date, to be contained in known accumulations, prior to production, plus those quantities in accumulations yet to be discovered.
Original Oil in Place (OOIP) is equivalent to Discovered Petroleum Initially-In-Place (DPIIP). DPIIP, as defined in the Canadian Oil and Gas Evaluations Handbook (COGEH), is that quantity of petroleum that is estimated as of a given date, to be contained in known accumulations prior to production. The recoverable portion of DPIIP includes production, reserves and contingent resources; the remainder is unrecoverable.
Original Gas in Place (OGIP) is equivalent to Discovered Petroleum Initially-In-Place (DPIIP). DPIIP, as defined in the Canadian Oil and Gas Evaluations Handbook (COGEH), is that quantity of petroleum that is estimated as of a given date, to be contained in known accumulations prior to production. The recoverable portion of DPIIP (ORGIP) includes production, reserves and contingent resources; the remainder is unrecoverable.
OOIP and OGIP estimates are internally estimated and prepared by a qualified reserves evaluator.
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Cequence is focused in the Deep Basin of Alberta
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USA CANADA
Peace River Arch/NE BC- 2012 Production Est: 1,800 boe/d
Deep Basin- 2012 Production Est: 7,100 boe/d
Deep Basin
SIMONETTE
Emphasis on building a high quality, operated asset base in a multi-zone, liquids-rich gas area
Target top quartile or better operating/cash costs
Control large contiguous land blocks to facilitate future development (170,000 net acres in the Deep Basin)
Maintain a strong balance sheet
Corporate Profile
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Trading Symbol TSX: CQE
Current production 9,000 boepd
52-week trading range $0.88-$3.59
Shares outstanding 200 million
Insider ownership 12% FD
Market capitalization (1) $340 million
Forecast December 31, 2012 net debt(2) $43 million
Bank line $100 million
2012 Average Production Guidance 8,800 boepd
2012 Budgeted Net Capital Expenditures $75 million (1) Based on Cequence stock price of $1.70 (2) Net debt is calculated as net working capital less commodity contract asset and liabilities and demand credit facilities and
excluding other liabilities, and including expected net proceeds of $15 million from the November 2012 flow through financing.
Recent Highlights
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Strong Balance Sheet and recent flow-through financing
$16 million flow-through financing closed on December 5th 2012 exit net debt expected to be $43 million (< 1 X forecast annualized Q4 FFO)
Excellent Simonette Montney Well Performance
Increased internal model 20% to reflect production performance
Recent Exploration Success continues at Simonette
Falher discovery at Simonette identifies a fourth formation to be exploited with horizontal drilling
Aux Sable Facility Agreement
Began production of raw gas to the Aux Sable Deep Cut Facility on June 1, 2012 resulting in increased netbacks at Simonette while avoiding $30-$35 MM in facilities capital
Financial Highlights
Q3 2012 Q2 2012 % Change
Average Daily Production (BOE/D) 8,895 8,660 3
Funds flow from operations ($M) (1) $10,803 $4,563 136
Per share, basic and diluted $0.06 $0.03 100
Operating costs per BOE $6.88 $8.32 (17)
G&A per BOE $2.19 $2.56 (14)
Capital expenditures, net ($M) $16,838 $6,929 143
Net debt and working capital (deficiency) ($M)(2) ($48,291) ($43,855) 10
Weighted average shares outstanding (basic and diluted) (M)
191,612 164,823 16
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(1) Funds flow from operations is calculated as cash flow from operating activities before adjustments for decommissioning liabilities expenditures and net changes in non-cash working capital
(2) Net debt and working capital (deficiency) is calculated as cash and net working capital less commodity contract assets and liabilities and demand credit facilities and excluding other liabilities
Cash Costs per Boe – Q3 2012
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
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*Cash costs consist of operating expense, transportation costs, general and administrative expense and interest expense
$/b
oe
First Half 2013 Guidance
First Half 2013 Guidance
Production (boe/d)(1) 9,600
Capital expenditures $42 MM
Operating costs per boe $6.75
Royalties (% of revenue) 11
Crude oil – WTI (Cdn$/bbl) $91.00
Natural gas – AECO (Cdn$/GJ) $3.30
Funds flow from operations (2)(4) $25 MM
Annualized funds flow from operations (2)(4) $50 MM
June 30, 2013 net debt and working capital deficiency(3) $60 MM
Basic shares outstanding 200.3 MM
(1) Comprised of 49.8 mmcf/d of natural gas and 1,300 boe/d of oil and liquids
(2) Funds flow from operations is calculated as cash flow from operating activities before adjustments for decommissioning liabilities
(3) Net debt and working capital (deficiency) is calculated as cash and net working capital less commodity contract assets and liabilities
(4) First half funds flow sensitivity: +/- $1 AECO is $6 million.
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Simonette Infrastructure
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• Control 220 gross operated sections (avg. 75% W.I) with excellent land tenure
• Cequence operates its facilities at Simonette and delivers raw gas to the Alliance Pipeline for processing at the Aux Sable Deep Cut plant in Chicago
• Aux Sable agreement provides access to deep cut processing and avoids the potential $30-$35 million of capital for the initial 40 mmcfd gas plant while enhancing operating netbacks
• Phase 4 facility expansion expected completion - Q1 2013
Capital cost $5.5 million Capacity increased to 75
mmcfd
Cequence Alliance Meter Station Capacity 120 mmcf/d Trilogy Plant
CQE W.I. = 25% Capacity 10 mmcf/d
9-10 Field Compressor
13-11 Compressor Station
To Aux Sable Deep Cut Plant Chicago, Illinois
Keyera Processing Facility Capacity 153 mmcf/d
6 miles
PHASE 4 FACILITY EXPANSION • COMPRESSION AND
CONDENSATE STABILIZATION • NEW FACILITY CAPABILITY 75
MMCFD • CAPITAL COST $5.5 MM (INCL
PIPELINES) - 2013
10 KM LOOPING
3D Seismic Coverage
Stacked Zones Contain Significant Resources
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5-10 BCF
5-24 BCF each
5-25 BCF
30-60 BCF
Dunvegan
Falher
Wilrich
Gething
Upper Montney
Zone Total Resource Potential/Sec (1)
2,400m
2,950m
3,100m
2,700m
2,500m
2,800m
(1) See Forward-Looking Information and Definitions for definition of total resource
6 miles
Gas/Condensate trend- CQE wells outperforming expectations
• Significant industry activity offsetting Cequence
• 50 net sections mapped on existing trend at an average 40 bcf of total resource per section (1)
• Approximately 200 potential horizontal locations assuming 4 wells per section
• Liquids yield (C3+) ranges from 20-60 bbls/mmcf (70% condensate)
• Average net 30 bbls/mm C3+
• Minimum three firm wells currently planned for winter program.
Oil Prone trend developing in North Simonette
• Three HZ CQE wells completed with average stabilized rates of 135 boepd (52% oil/condensate) after 3 months
• Competitor drilling currently de-risking Cequence land
• 20 net sections in potential oil trend with average internally estimated OOIP of 15 mmbbls(1) per section
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6 miles
(1) See Forward-Looking Information and Definitions for definition of OOIP and total resource
10-16 IP rate- 2 mmcfd despite mechanical restrictions
8-21 Completion before yearend
1-18 -Drilling
Simonette Montney Liquids-Rich Resource Play
Montney Gas/Condensate CQE Working Model vs. 7
CQE gas wells to date
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RESERVES
UPDATED MODEL
5.0 BCF raw natural gas 100 MBbl Condensate
50 MBbl Propane/Butane
PRODUCTION
IP YEAR 1 AVERAGE
5.5 mmcfd 110 bpd C5+ 55 bpd C3/C4 1,100 boepd
2.9 mmcfd 63 bpd C5+
30 bpd C3/C4 550 boepd
0
5
10
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
2012 DRILLING PROGRAM
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
11000
12000
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Pro
du
cin
g D
aily
Gas
Rat
e (
mcf
/d)
Months on Production
Average Well Production
CQE Simonette Model
Montney Drilling Costs
13
bo
e/d
* Includes liner cost ** Longer wells have 2,400+ m laterals
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
$1,600
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
$ /
me
ter
- M
eas
ure
d D
ep
th
Dri
ll &
Cas
e C
ost
s $
M
Drill & Case Cost*
$/m MD
2011 2010 2012
• 2012 drilling costs declining while wellbore length increasing
• Recent wells are 5,500 meters measured depth with 2,500 meter lateral
• Padsites reduce access and tie-in costs
• Improving bit design, drilling fluids, and well path planning
Montney Completion Costs
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Dri
ll &
Co
mp
lete
Co
sts
$M
M
15 16 16 19 16 22 16 15 24 18 15 25
$258
$173 $179
$227
$199 $210
$318
$185
$143
$151
$323
$127
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
Dri
ll &
Co
mp
lete
Co
sts
$M
Completion Cost
Frac cost per stage
# of Stages Completed
2011 2010 2012
$M
pe
r Fr
ac S
tage
Foam Frac Mechanical Problems
• Cost per frac showing steady improvement
• Improved fluid handling in the field- tanks/flow-lines
• Testing in-line
• Two wells out of the range due to mechanical issues and high cost fluid
• Cequence believes longer laterals with more frac stages will increase rate and recoverable reserves
Montney Economic Sensitivity to Gas Price and Net Liquids Yield
15
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00
NP
V 1
0 (
$M
)
AECO Gas price ($/mmbtu)
20 Bbl/MMcf NGL Yield 30 Bbl/MMcf NGL Yield 45 Bbl/MMcf NGL Yield
IP: 5.5 MMcf/d ORGIP: 5.0 BCF (1)
NGL Yield: 20 to 60 Bbl/MMcf C3 + (70% Condensate) Capital: $7.5 MM
(1) See Forward-Looking Information and Definitions for definition of ORGIP
Simonette Dunvegan Oil, and Gas/Condensate Play
• 16-2 well will earn additional land which is highly prospective for Dunvegan gas/condensate production
• Resthaven pool is highly productive in the Dunvegan formation
• Cequence has mapped 22 potential locations on 11 net existing sections
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Simonette oil pool
42º API
Resthaven gas/condensate pool
6 miles
Oil prone
16-2 Drilling
Falher Trends – New Discovery
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KAKWA Falher C Channel Pressure: 3950 psi (27216 kpa) Depth: 2400 m (7891 ft) Gradient: 0.5 - 0.55 psi/ft OGIP: 12 Bcf/Section(1) (20 max) H 12m Ø Avg 6.5%
RESTHAVEN/SIMONETTE Falher F Channel Pressure: 5000 psi (34450 kpa) Depth: 2900 m (9514 ft) Gradient: 0.53 psi/ft OGIP: 9 Bcf/Section (20 max)(1)
H 10m Ø Avg 5.0%
16-18 HZTL
IP 30 (restricted) 1,300 boepd (7.3 MMcf/d and 113 bbls cond/d)
• Discovery well at 16-18 had an average first month rate of 1,300 boepd
• Cequence has mapped 28 potential locations on 14 net existing sections
• Stepout well at 4-6 located 3 miles south of recent discovery at 16-18. Planned spud January 2013.
• Falher F Pool similar
reservoir distribution and quality to nearby Musreau/Kakwa Falher C Pools
• Analog pool produces 60 mmcfd from 21 existing producers
• Internal model 6 mmcfd IP and 5 bcf recoverable per well
4-6 Option Well-planned for Q1
6 miles
Production Model: 6 MMCF/D for 5 BCF, 20-40 BBL/MM
(1) See Forward-Looking Information and Definitions for definition of ORGIP
Simonette Wilrich
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Wilrich Play
• 20 net sections currently mapped with 2 wells per section spacing
• Deeper Montney drilling confirms existing trend to the south
Ansell/Minehead area
• Acquired 27 sections of prospective land on a new over-pressured Spirit River prospect (100% WI)
• Competitor drilling currently de-risking CQE land
• Nearby wells tested at more than 20 mmcfd
• Initial well planned in 2013
RESTHAVEN
Deeper Montney exploitation drilling confirms Wilrich pay extension to south
WILRICH POOL
Simonette Model Economics
IP Rate (mmcf/d)
Liquids (bbls/mmcf)
ORGIP (BCF)(6)
Dev. Capital Cost/Well (2)
(MM)
ROR
NPV (MM)
Model Payout
(months)
Breakeven Gas Price (/mmbtu)
Dunvegan Gas
4.5 50-75 4.0 $6.5 80%+
>$9.0
<16 <$2.00
Falher (4) 6.5 20 5.0 $7.0 60% $5.0 18 $2.00
Wilrich 4.5 20 4.0 $5.5 70% $4.7 17 $2.25
Montney 5.5 30(5) 5.0 $7.5 70% $8.0 18 <$2.00
CQE Working Development Models @ $4.00/mmbtu and $90/bbl WTI (1)(3)
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(1) Economics calculated post Aux Sable tie-in (2) Drill, complete, tie-in, slick water (3) Without GORR (4) Falher production performance based on Kakwa analog (5) 21 bbls/mm condensate (6) See Forward-Looking Information and Definitions for definition of ORGIP
Independent Gas Play Ranking- 4 CQE plays rank in the top 13 in North America
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Simonette/Resthaven Horizontal Wells
• Multiple zones with significant horizontal drilling success
• Major companies active in Simonette/Resthaven
• Exxon • Encana • Conoco
• CQE land is well-
positioned
• Stacked potential of up to 100 bcf per section of total resource (1) on Cequence lands
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Kakwa / Chime
Encana / Tourmaline
Spirit River
Karr
7 Generations
Montney Oil Pool
Kakwa /
Musreau
Paramount
Spirit River
Resthaven
Paramount/Encana/
Conoco
Dunvegan
Resthaven
Encana
Spirit River
Leland
Encana
Spirit River
North Simonette
Apache-AOSC
Montney Oil Pool
Simonette
COP
Dunvegan
6 miles
Simonette
Montney Gas Pool Celtic
Montney
Celtic
Montney
Conoco
Exxon
Montney
(1) See Forward-Looking Information and Definitions for definition of total resource
Conclusions
Strong balance sheet 2012 exit debt <1 X annualized forecast Q4 FFO
Montney results outperforming type curve
Infrastructure in place- positioned to accelerate drilling activity
and grow production as gas prices strengthen
Large multi-zone drilling inventory in four leading North American natural gas plays
Highly experienced Deep Basin management team and Board of Directors
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Appendix
20.30
19.37
17.38 16.76
14.99
14.08 14.21
12.84 12.58
13.88
11.87
10
15
20
25
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
Natural Gas Oil & NGL Opex, Transportation, G&A and Interest
8,895
Corporate Production and Cash Costs
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$/b
oe
bo
e/d
9,464 8,879
9,833
9,125
8,185 7,485
4,619
3,197
2,444
8,660
Hedging- approximately 40% of 2013 production hedged at an average
$3.62 per mcf
Contract
Type Volume
GJ/d CAD Price Basis
July 1, 2012 to December 31, 2012 Gas Swap 2,000 $3.14 AECO
August 1, 2012 to December 31, 2012 Gas Swap 2,500 $2.50 AECO
January 1, 2013 to December 31, 2013 Gas Swap 2,000 $2.84 AECO
January 1, 2013 to December 31, 2013 Gas Swap 2,500 $3.09 AECO
January 1, 2013 to December 31, 2013 Gas Swap 2,500 $3.00 AECO
January 1, 2013 to December 31, 2013 Gas Swap 5,000 $3.10 AECO
January 1, 2013 to December 31, 2013 Gas Swap 2,500 $3.24 AECO
January 1, 2013 to December 31, 2013 Sold Oil Call 200 bbls/d $100.00 usd WTI
January 1, 2013 to December 31, 2013 Gas Swap 2,500 $3.40 AECO
January 1, 2014 to September 30, 2014 Gas Swap 2,500 $3.51 AECO
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Reserves
Independent Reserves Evaluation (1) – Dec 31, 2011
2011 2010
Proved Developed Producing (mboe) 14,675 13,018
($M)(4) 202,850 181,163
Proved (mboe) 35,077 27,332
($M)(4) 389,446 307,465
FD&A ($/BOE) 19.26 18.25
FDC ($MM) 236.4 141.7
RLI (years) 10.7(2) 10.0(3)
Proved + Probable (mboe) 67,443 48,863
($M)(4) 715,750 525,635
FD&A ($/BOE) 13.42 12.67
FDC ($MM) 426.5 250.8
RLI (years) 20.5(2) 17.9(3)
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(1) Independent reserves evaluator is GLJ Petroleum Consultants (“GLJ”) (2) RLI based on 2011 annual production of 9,010 boe/d
(3) RLI based on Q4, 2010 production of 7,485 boe/d
(4) Discounted at 10%
Land & Net Asset Value (NAV)
December 31, 2011 GLJ Report Escalated Strip Pricing(1)
$M $M
Proved + Probable, NPV 10% - December 31, 2011
715,750 450,887
Land (2) 50,880 50,880
Dec 31, 2012 Estimated Net Debt(3) (43,000) (43,000)
NAV 723,630 458,767
Shares Outstanding (M)(4) 200,300 200,300
NAV/Share ($/share) 3.61 2.29
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(2) 254,400 acres @ $200/acre
(1) Based on the net present value of the future net revenue from the Company’s proved plus probable reserves (discounted at 10%) with benchmark future pricing used in the Company’s reserve report at December 31, 2011 adjusted to March 5, 2012 escalated strip prices
(4) Common voting shares outstanding at September 30, 2012 and including common shares issued in November 2012 financing
(3) Estimated net debt based on Cequence’s 2012 guidance is calculated as cash and net working capital less commodity contract asset and demand credit facilities and excluding other liabilities and include proceeds of November 2012 financing.
Simonette Deep Basin Stack
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Dunvegan
Falher Bluesky / Gething
Montney Wilrich
3075
3050
3025
3000
2950
2975
Upper
Middle
Lower
CURRENT HORIZONAL
TARGET ZONE
Contacts: Paul Wanklyn President & CEO [email protected] David Gillis
Vice President, Finance & CFO [email protected]
www.cequence-energy.com
3100, 525 - 8th Avenue SW Calgary AB T2P 1G1
Phone: 403-229-3050 Fax: 403-229-0603
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