december 08, 2020 covid-19 auto market update...new supply flat last week source: cox automotive 0.0...
TRANSCRIPT
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December 08, 2020
COVID-19 AUTOMARKET UPDATE
Jonathan SmokeChief Economist, Cox Automotive
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COVID-19 LOCAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT
Source: Cox Automotive
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CONTINUING CLAIMS AT 5.5 MILLION NATIONALLY
Source: Department of Labor
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BUSINESS RECOVERY ESTIMATES DOWN LAST WEEK
Source: Moody’s Analytics and CNN Business
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CONSUMER SENTIMENT DECLINED LAST WEEKMorning Consult’s Index of Consumer Sentiment on Monday was down 23.4% since February 29
Source: Morning Consult
113.93
81.23
86.84
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
1/1/
20
1/8/
20
1/15
/20
1/22
/20
1/29
/20
2/5/
20
2/12
/20
2/19
/20
2/26
/20
3/4/
20
3/11
/20
3/18
/20
3/25
/20
4/1/
20
4/8/
20
4/15
/20
4/22
/20
4/29
/20
5/6/
20
5/13
/20
5/20
/20
5/27
/20
6/3/
20
6/10
/20
6/17
/20
6/24
/20
7/1/
20
7/8/
20
7/15
/20
7/22
/20
7/29
/20
8/5/
20
8/12
/20
8/19
/20
8/26
/20
9/2/
20
9/9/
20
9/16
/20
9/23
/20
9/30
/20
10/7
/20
10/1
4/20
10/2
1/20
10/2
8/20
11/4
/20
11/1
1/20
11/1
8/20
11/2
5/20
12/2
/20
ICS Value (7-Day Average)
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CONSUMER SENTIMENT DECLINES IN MORE MARKETS
Since February 29th Since November 30th
Source: Morning Consult
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RETAIL SALES RECOVERY ESTIMATES
Source: Cox Automotive
-14.1%
-21.8%
-70.0%
-60.0%
-50.0%
-40.0%
-30.0%
-20.0%
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
1/8/2020 2/8/2020 3/8/2020 4/8/2020 5/8/2020 6/8/2020 7/8/2020 8/8/2020 9/8/2020 10/8/2020 11/8/2020
Y/Y % Change in 7-Day Moving Average of Retail Sales
New Used
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ZERO PERCENT FINANCING UP TO START THE MONTH
Source: Cox Automotive
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
Jan-17
Feb-17
Mar-17
Apr-17
May-17
Jun-17
Jul-1
7Au
g-17
Sep-17
Oct-17
Nov-17
Dec-17
Jan-18
Feb-18
Mar-18
Apr-18
May-18
Jun-18
Jul-1
8Au
g-18
Sep-18
Oct-18
Nov-18
Dec-18
Jan-19
Feb-19
Mar-19
Apr-19
May-19
Jun-19
Jul-1
9Au
g-19
Sep-19
Oct-19
Nov-19
Dec-19
Jan-20
Feb-20
Mar-20
Apr-20
May-20
Jun-20
Jul-2
0Au
g-20
Sep-20
Oct-20
Nov-20
Dec-20
0% APR Finance Share
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NEW SUPPLY FLAT LAST WEEK
Source: Cox Automotive
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
160.0
180.0
200.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46
New Vehicle Days’ Supply
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USED RETAIL SUPPLY
Source: Cox Automotive
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2020-01-06
2020-02-03
2020-03-02
2020-03-30
2020-04-27
2020-05-25
2020-06-22
2020-07-20
2020-08-17
2020-09-14
2020-10-12
11/9/2020
Days of Wholesale Supply Available
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2020-01-06
2020-02-03
2020-03-02
2020-03-30
2020-04-27
2020-05-25
2020-06-22
2020-07-20
2020-08-17
2020-09-14
2020-10-12
2020-11-09
Days of Retail Supply Available
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WHOLESALE PRICES DECLINE ON A TYPICAL SEASONAL PATTERN
Source: Cox Automotive
-15.00%
-10.00%
-5.00%
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
Jan-97
Jul-97
Jan-98
Jul-98
Jan-99
Jul-99
Jan-00
Jul-00
Jan-01
Jul-01
Jan-02
Jul-02
Jan-03
Jul-03
Jan-04
Jul-04
Jan-05
Jul-05
Jan-06
Jul-06
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jul-15
Jan-16
Jul-16
Jan-17
Jul-17
Jan-18
Jul-18
Jan-19
Jul-19
Jan-20
Jul-20
Manheim Index - % Change M/M
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USED PRICES CONTINUE DECLINE
Source: Cox Automotive
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
105%
110%
115%
120%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51
MY 2017 Retail and Wholesale Price Indices (wk1=100)
2019 Retail Index 2020 Retail Index 2019 Wholesale Index 2020 Wholesale Index
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SALES IMPACT VARIES BY DMA AS EVIDENCED BY UNIQUE CREDIT APPS
April 5th December 6th
Source: Cox Automotive
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COX AUTOMOTIVE LEADING INDICATORS
• Leads on Autotrader were up 12% y/y through December 5 and on Kelley Blue Book up 26%; both gained momentum last week
• Dealertrack unique credit applications on same-store basis were down 16% y/y last week, which was an increase from the prior week
• Xtime saw a 10% decline y/y last week in consumers having their cars serviced, which was an improvement from the prior week