decarbonizing industrial production - university of calgary · beyond 2°c scenario from the...

Presentation:

Prof. Dr. Manfred FischedickWuppertal Institut

February 2018

Decarbonizing industrial productionSelected examples from a complex process

page Wuppertal Institute

Contribution of the industry sector to global greenhouse gas emissions and related targets to achieve Paris Agreement

13 Februar 2018 2


SourceIPCC2014

3Source: IPCC 201413Februar2018

Sector contribution to greenhouse gas emissions – industry sector responsible for around 32% of global GHG emissions Consideration of direct and indirect CO2 emissions necessary


Sector contribution to greenhouse gas emissions

13Februar2018 Source: IPCC 2014 4

Industry direct emission trends by region

Increasing emissions in Asia and decreasing in OECD triggered by increasing local product demand and (!) trade of products (China/Asia developed more and more as work bench for OECD countries)

GHG emissions are driven by economic growth and related product demand

World production of minerals and manufactured products (particularly cement and iron ore) grew steadily and caused increase of GHG emissions


Industry direct emission trends by sub-sector Industry sector emissions dominated by three sub-sectors: Metals + chemicals + cement industries responsible for ~50% of industry emissions

13Februar2018 Source: IPCC 2014 5


Five main options for reducing GHG emissions in the industry sector – its more than pure technological options

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Energy supply and industrial production is no self purpose – how to find the main driver Sankey diagramm shows how service demand triggers industrial activities and related GHG emissions

Source: IPCC 2014 713 Februar 2018


GHG mitigation options in the industry sector exist along the whole value chain and comprise more than pure technological options From energy – emissions – material and product-service efficiency to SCP

813Februar2018 Source: IPCC 2014


(1)Energyefficiency(e.g.,throughfurnaceinsulaDon,processcoupling,orincreasedmaterialrecycling);(2)Emissionsefficiency(e.g.,fromswitchingtonon-fossilfuelelectricitysupply,orapplyingCCStocementkilns);(3)Materialefficiency

(3a)Materialefficiencyinmanufacturing(e.g.,throughreducingyieldlossesinblankingandstampingsheetmetalorre-usingoldstructuralsteelwithoutmelDng);(3b)Materialefficiencyinproductdesign(e.g.,throughextendedproductlifeorde-materializaDon–productdesign);

(4)Product-Serviceefficiency(e.g.,throughcarsharing,orhigherbuildingoccupancy);(5)ServicedemandreducDon(e.g.,lessindividualmobilityswitchingfromprivatetopublictransport,sustainableconsumpDonpaQerns)

913Februar2018

GHG mitigation options in the industry sector exist along the whole value chain and comprises more than pure technological options From energy – emissions – material and product-service efficiency to SCP


Industry can also contribute to GHG mitigation based on their productsProducts from material processing industries lead to reduction of GHG emissions in the end-use sectors (selected examples for scope 4 emission bonus)

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•  (Green)Tyreswithreducedrollingresistancebasedonmoderncomponentsfromthechemicalindustry

•  InsulaDonmaterialstoreduceheaDngandcoolingdemand

•  LowweightmaterialsoutoffibrecompositeoraluminiumtoreducefuelconsumpDonofvehicles

•  Steelasbasiccomponentforwindmills•  etc.

Source: Haute Innovation 2017


What role the different GHG mitigation options could play in the future on the way to achieve 2°C target

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page Wuppertal Institute1213Februar2018 Source: IEA ETP 2017

What role the different GHG mitigation options could play in the future on the way to achieve 2°C target Beyond 2°C Scenario from the International Energy Agency (B2DS)

The2°CScenario(2DS)andtheBeyond2°CScenario(B2DS)eachsetsoutarapiddecarbonisaDonpathwayinlinewithinternaDonalpolicygoals.The2DShasbeenthemainclimatescenariointheETPseriesformanyyears,andithasbeenwidelyusedbypolicymakersandbusinessstakeholderstoassesstheirclimatestrategies.ForthefirstDme,theB2DSlooksathowfarknowncleanenergytechnologiescouldgoifpushedtotheirpracDcallimits,inlinewithcountries’moreambiDousaspiraDonsintheParisAgreement.


What role the different GHG mitigation options could play in the future on the way to achieve 2°C target Beyond 2°C Scenario (B2DS) requires implementation of full range of mitigation options (as 2DS does)

1313Februar2018 Source: IEA ETP 2017

© Fraunhofer ISI

Seite 9

M i t igat ion wedges compar ing RTS and B2DS(Que l le : IEA 2017)


•  Fromashortandmid-termperspec:veenergyefficiencyandbehaviourchangecouldsignificantlycontributetoGHGmi:ga:on–  Theenergyintensityoftheindustrysectorcouldbedirectlyreducedbyupto

approximately25%comparedtothecurrentlevelthroughthewide-scaledeploymentofbestavailabletechnologies,upgrading/replacement,parDcularlyincountrieswherethesearenotinpracDceandinnon-energyintensiveindustries

–  AddiDonalenergyintensityreducDonsofuptoapproximately20%maypotenDallyberealizedthroughinnovaDon

•  Inthelong-termashiEtolow-carbonelectricity,radicalproductinnova:ons(e.g.alterna:vestocement)andprocessinnova:on(e.g.hydrogenbasedsteelmaking),orCCS(formi:ga:ngi.a.processemissions)couldcontributetosignificant(absolute)GHGemissionsreduc:ons Innova:onisabsolutelyessen:altoachieveglobaltargets

Due to intensive past efforts remaining energy efficiency potential is rather limited in the industry sector (e.g. steel industry) Decarbonization entails new approaches and more radical innovations

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Innovation in industry means amongst others broad scale electrificationExample: Electrification “Roadmap” for the chemical industry

Source:TNO/ECN(2016) 1513 Februar 2018


Innovation in industry means to go beyond current technologies and structures, three areas must be incorporated

16Source:ECF2018

Processtechnologiesandbreakthrough•  BroadshiEtoelectricityforenergyandforhydrogenproducDon(e.g.,orereducDon)

• New,non-fossilfeedstocks(CO2,bio)• Novelmaterials(e.g.,cement)andsubsDtuDon

Circularityanddemandside• High-qualitymaterialsrecycling(plasDcs,steel,aluminium)tosubsDtuteforvirginproducDon

•  Increasedmaterialsproduc:vityofkeyvaluechains(transport,buildings,packaging,etc.)throughsharing,longevity,lightweighDng,etc.

Carbonnega:vetechnologies•  Carboncaptureandstorage(CCS)oruDlisaDon(CCU)ofindustrialCO2

•  ProcesschangestofacilitateCCS(e.g,.Hisarnasteel)

•  Infrastructurefortransportandstorage

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Innovation in industry means to go beyond current technologies and structuresInnovation needed from a linear towards a circular economy

17

Defini:onCircularEconomyfromtheCEAP„ThetransiDontoamorecirculareconomy,wherethevalueofproducts,materialsandresourcesismaintainedintheeconomyforaslongaspossible,andthegeneraDonofwasteminimized(...)“

CircularEconomy

Lineareconomy

13 Februar 2018

page Wuppertal Institute18

Examplesofpossibleop:ons Technologyreadinessandbarriers

Electrification and process breakthroughs – a wide portfolio of options have been mooted

•  Innova:on-accelerate• Uncertainty-ulDmateusability,cost,Dmeline

•  Investment-replacelargecapacity

• Keyactors-public-privatepartnership

•  Energysystemrequirement-e.g.~350TWhforH2-basedsteel(or5,000TWhforCO2-basedchemicals)

• Withoutsignificantdemandsidemeasures,electricitydemandwillincreasesignificantly

Keyissues

Cement

• AdvanceduseofsubsDtutes Limitedbutrelevant(Calcineclay=promising)[scalabilitybarrier]

• Novelcements (low)marketdemand,likelylimitedapplicaDons[scalabilityandmarketbarrier]

• CCU Industrialsymbiosis,earlystagethinking

• Newconcreteformulas Needsnewmarket/demands,consumerconfidence,limitedapplicaDons[scalabilityandmarketbarrier]

• Concrete/cementrecycling RequiresnewlogisDcs,cost-compeDDvenessissues[scalabilityandmarket/logisDcbarrier]

• CCS Bankability/Businesscasedifficult[costbarrier,geographicalbarrier]

Steel

• Hydrogen(DRI) Highfuturedemandforlow-cost/greenH2[Cost&Scalabilitybarrier]

• CCS Bankabilityissues(butHIsarnawithoutCCShaslowerCAPEXandOPEX)[costbarrier]

• CCU Good(LCA-type)carbonaccounDngneededtomeasurenet-emissionreducDons[sectoralcoordinaDonbarrier,miDgaDonuncertainty]

•  Electrolysis Veryearlystage,highaddiDonalelectricitydemand[technology,cost,andscalabilitybarrier]

Chemicals

•  ElectrificaDon Impactonpowerdemand/efficiency[costandscalabilitybarrier]

• Hydrogen(andCCU) Highcost(CAPEX/OPEX)andfuturepowerdemand[costandscalabilitybarrier]

• Bio-basedchemicals SupplychaindevelopmentandcompeDDonwithothersectors[supplychainbarrier]

• CCUandindustrialsymbiosis NeedgoodcarbonaccounDng[sectoralcoordinaDonbarrier,miDgaDonuncertainty]

• CCS HighCAPEX,higherOPEX,infrastructureneeds[costbarrier,geographicalbarrier]

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GHG mitigation in industry - a chance for Win-Win-Win approachThe Circular Economy provides three different types of dividends

Innovation and reduced material and energy costs can generate competitive advantages for companies and regions

ReducedconsumpDonofresourcesandrecycledwasteinproducDonreducetheenvironmentalimpactlocally

Asaresultofintegratedproductcycles,itispossibletoreducenegaDveenvironmentalimpactsonthepopulaDonanddecoupleeconomicgrowthfromtheuseofresources

Economic Dividend

Ecological Dividend

Social Dividend

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Long term requirements need preparatory steps - draft of strategic roadmap(s) core element of shaping the different phasesExample: “Roadmap” of EU paper and pulp industry

Source:CEPI(2017) 20

Decarbonising by 80%: moving away from a fossil-based societyQuantitatively, decarbonising by 80% compared to 1990 means that the European forest fibre and paper industry emissions would be brought down to 12 million tonnes of CO2 by 2050.

This absolute emission reduction would not account for the benefits provided by carbon sequestration in managed forests, its long-lasting storage in bio-based products that are further recycled, or the substitution of fossil-based and less climate-friendly products and materials.

Nevertheless, reducing the sector’s direct and indirect emissions so substantially (by 37 million tonnes since 2015) will require a combination of specific measures to gradually deliver results up to 2050.

Emission reduction pathways 2015-2050

Fuel switchThe European forest fibre and paper industry already uses biomass or gas-based boilers extensively and pioneered Combined Heat and Power (CHP) for its own energy production. Further conversion of industrial installations to low- to no-carbon energy sources are modelled to deliver 8 million tonnes of CO2 emissions reduction.

Emerging and breakthrough technologiesIn addition to some of the breakthrough concepts identified in the Two Team Project such as the “Deep Eutectic Solvents” technology now under development, other innovative and disruptive solutions could complement the emission reduction effort by some 5 million tonnes of CO2.

Demand-side flexibilityLeveraging its on-site cogeneration assets, the industry has the ability to engage on the energy market and adapt its energy sourcing to take hold of low prices, in particular from surpluses of intermittent renewable energy. The associated decarbonisation benefits could reach 2 million tonnes.

-7 million tonnes CO2




Energy efficiencyThe combination of process improvements, including the transition to Industry 4.0, as well as investments in state-of-the-art production technologies are estimated to lead to a reduction of 7 million tonnes of CO2 by 2050.

6

CEPI The forest fibre and paper industry in 2050

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Long term requirements need preparatory steps - draft of strategic roadmap(s) core element of shaping the different phasesStudy on behalf of the Port of Rotterdam Authority

2121

Three potential pathways to reduce the Port of Rotterdam CO2-emissions substantialls

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Significant reduction of GHG emissions in industry requires cross-sector approach and break through innovation through smart research cooperations

22May 2017


Networks and clusters bringing together science and industry Cooperation across energy-intensive branches and together with academia aims for innovation dynamic and triggering new markets (CleanTechNRW)

Source:CleanTechNRW201113 Februar 2018


Cooperative innovation approaches (clusters) Clean Tech NRW comprises partner from academia, industrial companies and SMEs

24Source:CleanTechNRW201113 Februar 2018


Cooperative innovation approaches (clusters) Clean tech NRW Competence matrix – central pillar for cooperation and building of specific research consortiaCleanTech)1.0)and)2.0)ask)for)cooperative)set8up)

Answer:)Innovationcluster)CleanTechNRW)

#19$From

Kno

wledgetoTechn

ology:Scien

pican

alyssis

lead

tosy

stem

aDciden

DficaDo

nofnew

de

man

dforinn

ovaD

on

TechnologyPush&M

arketPull:Strategiccom

peDDveadvantagethroughsystemaDc

creaDonofcooperaDonbasedonknowledge

plaporm

25Source:CleanTechNRW201113 Februar 2018


Natural gas grid, power plants

POLYMER- BUILDING

BLOCK

BENZOL- PRODUCTION

METHANATION

blast furnance

CH4

C6H6

wastegasesWasteheat

Example Industrial symbiois: Example: Re-use of CO2 from the steel industry as chemical feedstock

2613 Februar 2018

Demonstration Project:Carbon2Chem from Thyssen Krupp Steel et al started in 2015


Innovation needs bundling knowledge - Low Carbon Centrum NRW Joined approach of scientific community and industry to initiate long-term innovation projects and intensify cooperation across sectors

27Source:WI201613 Februar 2018

ThinkTank(virtualconnecDon)Interdisciplinaryse/ngofins3tutes

IndustryClusterandNetw

orksStakeholder-andprojektplarormCorepartner(Chemicalindustry,steel,energy,paper,aluminium

etc.)

Low-Carbon-CentrumNRW

NRW

Resea

rchCo

mmun

ity

Innova:onimpulses

Prac:onersknowhow

WG1 WG2 WG3 WG4

NucleusofresourceuniversityKnowledgetransfer

Knowledgetransfer


Conclusion: To achieve global GHG mitigation targets severe innovation efforts as well as international cooperation and appropriate policy framework are necessary

13 Februar 2018 28


Conclusion - major challenges for the future

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(1)  Identification of major innovation needs to close the technology gap (including identification and multi-criteria assessment of potential break through technologies/processes) – complementation of traditional technology push approach by market pull approach (long term needs)

(2)  Identification of adequate economic, infrastructural, institutional, social and political conditions for implementation of innovations, questions include

•  how to finance huge pilot & demonstration projects (mutual efforts from industry and governments)?

•  how to organize technological cooperation across industry sectors (industrial symbiosis) and country borders (international cooperation): sharing risks, responsibilities and benefits

•  how to deal with complexity of energy system and interdependencies between economic sectors as well as uncertainties about major future variables (how to avoid path dependencies)?

(3)  Identification of adequate market structures to create investment dynamics while guaranteeing fair competition between companies and across countries (how to avoid carbon leakage)


Conclusion - major challenges for the future

13 Februar 2018 30

(4)  Strengthen cooperation between industry and universities to provide sufficient knowledge (qualification) for implementation of an ambitious transformation pathway - impulses for appropriate curricula necessary

(5)  Intensify debate and exchange with civil society to get sufficient backing for necessary investments and infrastructure measures

overallaconsistent(integraDve)industrialpolicyisneededthatsupportsstepbystepimplementaDonofadecarbonizaDon(GHGneutrality)pathwaywhilerespecDngtradiDonalgoalsofthesector(e.g.compeDDveness,safeguardingjobs)aswellasothermegatrends(e.g.globalizaDon,urbanizaDon,digitalizaDon)

Thank you very much for your attention

decarbonizing industrial production - university of calgary · beyond 2°c scenario from the...

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