decadal scale variability of the mediterranean ecosystem medecos

Decadal scale Variability of the Mediterranean Ecosystem

MedEcos

MarinERA: Facilitating the coordination of national and

regional marine RTD programmes in Europe


MedEcos

The project aims to lead to

• an improved understanding of the evolution of the Mediterranean Marine Ecosystem in decadal time scales, in order to

• lead to more reliable predictions in the context of currently evolving anthropogenic climatic change.


MedEcos

Motivation (in place of an introduction):

• Decadal variability of the atmospheric forcing


MedEcos



•11-year cycle of the solar forcing

Weng, JASTP 2005


MedEcos



• 11-year cycle of the solar forcing

• Internal response of the Mediterranean sea to decadal-scale forcing.

Jan-1997 Jan-2007 Jan-2017

29.00

29.10

29.20

29.30

29.40

29.50

29.60

29.70

óè,

kg m

-1

0 . 0

1 . 0

2 . 0

3 . 0

4 . 0

5 . 0

6 . 0

Dis

s. O

x.,

ml

l-1

Lem nos

Athos

North Skyros

MN

B1

EV

OL

.grf

Jan-1997 Jan-2007 Jan-2017

Casford, 2002


MedEcos



• 11-year cycle of the solar forcing

• Internal response of the Mediterranean sea to decadal-scale forcing.

• Decadal scale of anthropogenic forcing….


MedEcos Why now?

Because now we are in the verge of obtaining the capacity to do this:

• Instrumental period extending to several decades

• Paleoceanographic analyses reaching decadal resolutions

• Increased flow of proxy data covering hundreds of years at higher than decadal resolution

• Numerical simulations (almost) possible

MedEcos

Department of Marine Sciences, University of the Aegean

Institute of Oceanography, Hellenic Centre for Marine Research

Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Scientificas

Institute of Environmental Science and Technology, UAB

Faculty of Geology and Geoenvironment, University of Athens

Consortium


MedEcos Approach:

• Attempt a reconstruction of circulation and –where possible- ecosystem structure and functions based on compilation of available information

• When necessary, collect and analyze additional information (sediment cores, biogeochemical functioning)

• Major effort in “fusing” paleoceanographic, instrumental and modelling results

• Attempt to reproduce past and present conditions using numerical modelling, “tuning” circulation and ecosystem models.

• Provide “calibrated worst-case predictions” based on the above


MedEcos Structure of the project:

• WP1: Coordination – external links

• WP2: Field sampling

• WP3: Instrumental period data collection and fusion

• WP4: Instrumental period hindcast and assessment

• WP5: Paleoceanographic hindcasts

• WP6: Forecasts


MedEcos WP2: Field sampling

Task 2.1: Primary productivity rates and community structure

Task 2.2: Production, cycling and export of organic matter (OM)

Task 2.3: Production and fluxes of carbonate species (coccoliths, foraminifera).

Task 2.4: Temperature and salinity proxies’ calibrations

Deliverables:D2.1. Calculations of PP rates and export of OM from the

euphotic to the meso- and bathypelagic zones: Month 12D2.2. Mineralization vs. export of OM under different oxidation

states (high vs. low oxygen levels) : Month 12D2.3. Export of calcareous nanoplankton and calculations of rain

ratios (Organic/Carbonate fluxes) : Month 12


MedEcos WP3: Instrumental period data collection

and fusion

Task 3.1. Collection of direct atmospheric forcing information for the instrumental period.

Source: NOAA/GFDL committed Climate Change Experiment coupled model

runsResolution:

temporal: monthlyspatial: 2.5° x2.5°

Coverage: 1861-2000

Data interpolated to 1/10° to force the ocean circulation model in WP4.



and fusionTask 3.2 Estimation of volume, heat, salt and buoyancy exchange at the

Straits for the instrumental period.

Gibraltar: Initial and boundary conditions from the oceanic component of the previously mentioned NOAA/GFDL committed Climate Change Experiment coupled model runsResolution:

temporal: annualspatial: 1° x 1°

Coverage: 1861-2000

Dardanelles: Exchanges computed indirectly from the heat and freshwater budget of the Black Sea, based on the above model runs. A HF radar facility facing the Dardanelles exit will be used for assessment and possibly calibration



and fusionTask 3.3. Collection of sediment cores for high-resolution analysis of the

instrumental period.

Sediment cores from selected high-sedimentation regions (deep Lemnos basin, core MD99-2343) high-resolution analysis of the sediment corresponding to the instrumental period.

All extractable information (regarding “palaeo”-SST, “palaeo”-SSS, ecosystem structure and functioning etc.) will be analyzed with emphasis on decadal-scale variability.

D3.1. Air-sea and lateral (Strait) fluxes for forcing the instrumental period simulations.

D3.2. High-resolution (decadal-scale) sedimentary information for the instrumental period.


MedEcos WP4: Instrumental period hindcast and

assessment Task 4.1. Circulation modelling

• A version of the Princeton Ocean Model, at a resolution of 1/10° x 1/10° and 24 sigma levels with momentum, heat and freshwater flux boundary conditions will be used.

• Input: rivers, Gibraltar and Dardanelles• Hadley Centre’s SST used for assimilation purposes• This model is routinely used for operational purposes by the H.C.M.R. in the

framework of the POSEIDON project


MedEcos WP4: Instrumental period hindcast and

assessment Task 4.2. Periods of interest within the instrumental period.

• Identification of periods of special interest within the instrumental period.• Use of forcing fields from WP3• Additional use of proxies through cooperation / links with MedClivar

Task 4.3. Ecosystem modelling for simulation of the selected periods of interest.

• The ERSEM Ecosystem model will be run for 1-2 years within the selected periods

D4.1. Circulation and thermohaline functioning of the Mediterranean for the instrumental period.

D4.2. Selected periods for ecosystem simulations.D4.3. Ecosystem simulations of the selected periods and comparison to the

sedimentary records.


MedEcos WP5: Paleoceanographic hindcasts

Task 5.1. Selection of periods of interest out of the instrumental period.

• select periods of special interest within the Holocene that would be worth and it would be possible to attempt to simulate

• to define numerical experiments allowing the investigation of the thermohaline and ecosystem dynamics

• to use the latter in an effort to approximate the climatic conditions leading to the observed sediment variability (for example, sapropel formation).


MedEcos WP5: Paleoceanographic hindcasts

Task 5.2. Simulation experiments• Attempt to simulate the periods selected by task 5.1• Experiments plagued by uncertainty regarding the meteorological forcing

and boundary conditions (Strait exchanges)• Approach will use the Bigg et al., 1994 and Myers et al. 1999

methodology as a starting basis• New developments (like the AGCM reproduced climate 6000 BP by

Vettoretti et al., 1998) will be incorporated.• Special attention will be given to decadal-scale variability

D5.1. Report of the workshop on climatic conditions and related forcing for the selected periods outside the instrumental record

D5.2. Report on the simulation experiments


MedEcos WP6: Forecasts

Task 6.1. Collection of direct atmospheric forcing information for various selected climatic scenaria.

• Momentum, heat and freshwater fluxes from the NOAA/GFDL CM2.0/CM2.1 model runs will be interpolated to 1/10° x 1/10° to force the Med circulation model

Task 6.2. Estimation of volume, heat, salt and buoyancy exchange at the Straits for various selected climatic scenaria.

• Estimation of exchanges through the Straits as in task 4.2

Task 6.3. Simulations of circulation and ecosystem functioning • Exploit the results of 6.1 and 6.2 to force the circulation model under the

IPCC worst case scenario• Selected periods will be chosen to run the ERSEM model in order to

investigate the ecosystem response

D6.1. Air-sea and lateral fluxes under various IPCC scenario.D6.2. Predictions on changing thermohaline and ecosystem functioning under the

worst case IPCC scenario for CO2 emissions


MedEcos TimeTable

2009 2010 2011

WP Tasks

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

32

33

34

35

36

1.1 M D

1 1.2

MD

2.1 MD

M

2.2 MD

M

2.3 MD

M 2

2.4 MD

M

3.1 MD

3.2 MD

3

3.3 M

4.1 D

4.2 MD

4

4.3 D

5.1 M D

5 5.2 M D

6.1 MD

6.2 MD

6

6.3 D

(a) Age model of MD99-2343 core developed by means of ten 14C-AMS dates (triangles), tuning of the G. bulloides d18O record with the ice d18O record from the GISP2 core (circles) and tuning with the d18O record of the MD95-2043 core from the Alboran Sea (asterisks). (b) Linear sedimentation rates of MD99-2343 core for the last 53 kyr that oscillate between 15 and 73 cm·kyr-1.


MedEcos

G. bulloides oxygen isotopic records from (a) MD95-2043 (Alboran Sea) and (b) MD99-2343 cores for the last 12 kyr. (c) Sedimentation rates along MD99-2343 sediment core calculated linearly among calendar years from 14C accelerator mass spectrometry dates (triangles) and tie points (cross). The mean sedimentation rate of 37 cm kyr-1 is represented by a dashed line.


MedEcos

decadal scale variability of the mediterranean ecosystem medecos

Documents

decadal variability

abovedecadal scale variability

mediterranean sea

mediterranean marine

decadal time scales

solar forcinginternal

solar forcingweng

ecosystem models