decadal drought risk assessment and scenario development...
TRANSCRIPT
Vikram Mehta Lower Grand Sub-basin Webinar 15 March 2017
Decadal Drought Risk Assessment and Scenario
Development for Food and Bio-fuels Agriculture in Four
Sub-basins in the Missouri River Basin
Acknowledgements
Projects supported by NOAA-CPO-Sectoral Applications Research Program 2015-2017
and
USDA-National Institute for Food and Agriculture 2011-2016
Vikram Mehta Lower Grand Sub-basin Webinar 15 March 2017
The Project People
Vikram Mehta and Katherin Mendoza The Center for Research on the Changing Earth System, Catonsville, Maryland
Cody Knutson, Nicole Wall, and Tonya Bernadt National Drought Mitigation Center, Univ. of Nebraska – Lincoln, Nebraska
Vikram Mehta Lower Grand Sub-basin Webinar 15 March 2017
Previous and Current Missouri River Basin
Projects
⦿ Exploratory study of decadal climate variability (DCV) impacts on water and crop yields: 2006-08
⦿ Decadal drought information needs of stakeholders and policymakers: 2008-10
⦿ Interannual to decadal climate variability impacts on urban water security: 2010-12
⦿ Value of decadal climate information to Missouri River Basin agriculture: 2012-14
⦿ Decadal climate and impacts prediction and adaptation models and methodologies: 2011-16
⦿ Development of adaptation options for food and biofuel crops: 2015-17
⦿ Readiness of agriculture and transportation sectors to cope with multiyear to decadal droughts in
the Mississippi and Missouri River Basins: 2016-18
All projects have involved interactions with stakeholders and
policymakers via workshops, webinars, and individual meetings.
Vikram Mehta Lower Grand Sub-basin Webinar 15 March 2017
Stakeholder Advisory Team
Tracy Marlo Daugherty: Regional Community Development Specialist – Univ. Missouri Extension
Valerie Tate: Local Rancher/Plant Sciences Specialist – Univ. Missouri Extension
Kurt Boeckmann: Agriculture Liason – Missouri DNR
Dave Johnson: District Conservationist with NRCS for Linn, Livingston, Carroll Counties
Terri Bruner: District Conservationist with NRCS for Putnam, Sullivan, Adair, Schuyler Counties
Dennis McDonald: Local Rancher
Nelson Heil: Presiding County Commissioner for Carroll County
Bill Boelsen: Associate Commissioner for Carroll County
Bob Miller: Land Learning Foundation
Mike Ledbetter: Land Owner in Linn County
Mary Culler: Regional Office Watershed Co-ordinator DNR
Vikram Mehta Lower Grand Sub-basin Webinar 15 March 2017
Project Objectives
⦿ To define decadal drought information needs of agricultural stakeholders in
four selected sub-basins of the Missouri River Basin.
⦿ To conduct a scenario-planning exercise for coping with multiyear to
decadal droughts in these sub-basins.
Vikram Mehta Lower Grand Sub-basin Webinar 15 March 2017
Roles of the Project and
Stakeholder Advisory Teams
Project Team ☞ Introduce natural decadal climate variability (DCV) phenomena or cycles.
☞ Show associations between these climate cycles, and dry/wet cycles, crop yields and
productions in Lower Grand (LG).
☞ Provide past and possible future scenarios of dry/wet cycles, water availability, crop yields.
Stakeholder Advisory Team ☞ Provide detailed and quantitative information about agriculture and water resources in LG;
and about present and future use of corn and other crops to produce bio-fuels.
☞ Describe perceptions of these dry/wet cycles and impacts on water and crops.
☞ Discuss how they might have used this information if provided as forecasts.
☞ Suggest best methods to convey such information to users of climate and impacts information.
☞ Disseminate information about this project and its results to other stakeholders.
Selected sub-basins for development of predictability and
adaptation methodologies
Platte
Lower
Grand
James
Marias
🌾 The Lower Grand in
Iowa and Missouri
🌾 The Central Platte in
Nebraska
🌾 The James in North
and South Dakota
🌾 The Marias-
Musselshell-Poplar in
Montana
Vikram Mehta Lower Grand Sub-basin Webinar 15 March 2017
Importance of the Missouri River Basin Missouri River Basin
Largest
river
basin
in the US
Covers
500,000
sq. miles,
10 States,
many Native
American
reservations,
parts of
Alberta and
Saskatchewan
Value of crops
and livestock
over
$100 billion in
2008
117 million
acres cropland,
only 12 million
acres irrigated
Produces 46% of wheat, 22% of grain corn, 34% of
cattle in the United States
Dependence on the Missouri River for drinking water, irrigation and industrial needs, hydro-electricity, recreation, navigation,
and fish and wildlife habitat
Vikram Mehta Lower Grand Sub-basin Webinar 15 March 2017
Droughts and Water in the Main Stem Reservoirs
Water in the Main Stem
Reservoirs
Severe to Extreme Drought Area
(Upper figure, courtesy National Drought Mitigation Center;
Lower figure, courtesy Kevin Grody, USACE)
Vikram Mehta Lower Grand Sub-basin Webinar 15 March 2017
Decadal Climate Variability
What is DCV?
Climate “cycles”with
~8-20 years periods
Seen in long-term ocean,
land,and atmosphere
observations
Main causes: Ocean-
atmosphere interactions,
land-atmosphere interactions,
solar variability
Major DCV Phenomena
Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)
Trop. Atlantic sea-surface
temperature (SST) gradient
oscillation (TAG)
West Pacific Warm Pool
oscillation (WPWP)
Decadal variability of ENSO
Sources of potential multiyear to decadal
climate predictability
Vikram Mehta Lower Grand Sub-basin Webinar 15 March 2017
Sea-surface temperature pattern and index time series
of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation: 1900-2015
Vikram Mehta Lower Grand Sub-basin Webinar 15 March 2017
Spatial pattern and index time series of the tropical
Atlantic sea-surface temperature gradient variability:
1900-2015
Pacific Decadal Oscillation and wheat production in the MRB
Average
production
6.6 million
tons
Average
production
13.8 million
tons
Correlation coefficients between the PDO and wheat production time series
0.5 without smoothing and 0.65 after smoothing all time series.
Vikram Mehta Lower Grand Sub-basin Webinar 15 March 2017
The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Precipitation,
and Temperature in the Missouri River Basin
WARM
PDO Warm PDO Cold
Precip
departure
From
average
Daily
max.
temp.
departure
from
average
DRY
WET
VERY WET
WET
DRY
VERY DRY
WARM COLD
mm/day
℃
COLD WARM
Observed and SWAT-simulated streamflow anomalies (cu. m/s)
in wet (1982-86) and dry (1987-90) epochs
Dry: 1987 - 90
USGS
SWAT
Wet: 1982 - 86
USGS
SWAT
Decreased flows in western
Montana and northern Kansas,
and increased flows elsewhere
Increased flows in western
Montana and northern Kansas,
and decreased flows elsewhere
PDO Warm PDO Cold
Vikram Mehta Lower Grand Sub-basin Webinar 15 March 2017
Development of Climate-Adaptive Water and
Agriculture Management System in the Lower Grand
Sub-basin
Why the Lower Grand?
Substantial and identifiable DCV signals in
precipitation, temperature, crops, and stream flow
Important agricultural region with a mix of
dryland and irrigated crops
Recreation and wildlife/conservation sectors also
important
Drought conditions threaten water supply for
many communities; MO DNR’s “Our Missouri
Waters Initiative” for watershed-based management
by developing infrastructure, policies, and
procedures
Vikram Mehta Lower Grand Sub-basin Webinar 15 March 2017
The PDO and Differences in Probabilities of Above/Below Average
Precipitation and Daily Max. Temperature: 1961-2015
PDO Warm PDO Cold
PDO Warm – Wet and cool; PDO Cold - Dry and warm
Vikram Mehta Lower Grand Sub-basin Webinar 15 March 2017
The PDO and Differences in Probabilities of Above/Below Average
Streamflow, Precipitation, and Daily Max. Temperature in Grundy,
Livingston, and Chariton Counties: 1961-2015
Location
(County)
PDO State Probability
Difference of
Above/Below
Average
Streamflow
(%)
Probability
Difference of
Above/Below
Average
Precipitation
(%)
Probability
Difference of
Above/Below
Average Daily
Max.
Temperature
(%)
Grundy
(Thompson
River at Trenton)
Warm/Cold -8/-17 23/-38 0/24
Livingston
(Grand River
near Sumner)
Warm/Cold 0/-38 8/-24 -15/24
Chariton
(Chariton River
near Prairie Hill)
Warm/Cold 0/-24 -8/-17 -8/24
Probabilities of streamflow changes are in physical agreement with probabilities of precipitation
and daily max. temperature changes where we have USGS streamflow data.
Vikram Mehta Lower Grand Sub-basin Webinar 15 March 2017
The PDO and Crop Yields in the Lower Grand Sub-basin
Soybean
Corn
Wheat
PDO Warm PDO Cold
USDA-NASS
data from 1961
to 2014
Wetter and cooler
conditions, and
above average
wheat, corn, and
soybean yields in
almost all counties
In PDO Warm
conditions
1961-2014
1961-2014
1961-2007
Wayne
1974-2007
# County
Vikram Mehta Lower Grand Sub-basin Webinar 15 March 2017
Next part of this webinar
Project Team
✔ Introduced natural decadal climate variability (DCV) phenomena or cycles.
✔ Showed with past data that there are associations between decadal climate
cycles, and dry/wet cycles and crop yields in Lower Grand.
Vikram Mehta Lower Grand Sub-basin Webinar 15 March 2017
Next part of this webinar
Stakeholder Advisory Team
☞ Please tell us about agriculture and water resources in LG, and the type of
water resource (surface, groundwater) used in irrigation, if any.
☞ What are your perceptions of dry/wet cycles and their impacts?
☞ What are typical agricultural management practices in LG? Crop rotations?
☞ Please tell us about present and future use of corn and other crops to
produce bio-fuels.
☞ Is run-off from farms and other sources contaminating water resources?
☞ Is there a competition for water among food production and other uses?
☞ Would it help stakeholders in LG if we can predict dry/wet cycles,
streamflows, and crop yields an year or more in advance?
Vikram Mehta Lower Grand Sub-basin Webinar 15 March 2017
Thank you!!