Decadal Climate Variability and Predictability

Discussion of CLIVAR Research Focus

Pan-CLIVAR Meeting, July 16-18, 2014

Pan-CLIVAR Meeting Objectives

• Review past and on-going activities

• Discuss and set in place the implementation of CLIVAR's future plans

• Enable discussions and planning for the CLIVAR Research Foci or WCRP Grand Science Challenges

• Form the basis for the new CLIVAR strategy from 2015

The SSG will review the pan-CLIVAR outcomes at a targeted meeting in the Fall 2014 in Moscow and will

work to publish the 2015-2025 CLIVAR implementation plan by the end of 2014

Guidelines for Research Foci

1. Define research priorities: what is the state of the art, what are the factors limiting progress, recommendations for a 5-10 year strategy to make significant progress

2. Propose implementation activities: proposals for targeted activities (leaders + timeline); cross panel/project implementation issues

3. List coordination and funding requirements: CLIVAR support (funding WGs, network development, research); other funding opportunities (multinational, national, foundation)

DCVP White Paper outline1. State of the art & factors limiting progress

• Patterns of variability - internal and response to forcing; observations & monitoring; specification of forcing agents (GHG, aerosols, volcanos, solar); model fidelity; attribution methods; mechanisms

• Predictability and prediction: internal vs. forced; regional differences (ocean vs. land, Atlantic vs. Pacific, tropical vs. extratropical); application feasibility

2. Research priorities for the next decade• Dynamical understanding • Modeling advances (forcing, processes)• Prediction (methodology, limits, application) • Observations & monitoring (instrumental & paleo)

DCVP White Paper outline

3. Implementation activities• Establish DCVP Team based on CLIVAR RF 2013 Tiger

Team 2 plus subgroup of WGCM/WGCIP/DCPP (done)• Issue ToR (soon after this meeting)• Establish link to regional panels, other RF, & other non-

CLIVAR WG/panels (btwn this meeting and fall 2014)• Prepare Strategic and Implementation Statement based

on outline - DCVP prospectus (phase I - fall 2014; phase II - spring 2015)

• Define coordination and funding requirements (as part of prospectus phase I)

• Other: Website? Workshop? AGU or EGU sessions?

Proposed ToR for DCVP team1. The CLIVAR Decadal Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR-DCVP) Team will

develop a prospectus on the subject that will provide motivation and objectives, including a prioritized list of executable national and international research activities towards promoting scientific understanding and applications on the subject of decadal variability and predictability. The above DCVP discussion guideline (in its post Pan-CLIVAR meeting update) will provide guidance for the DCVP Team work as will other relevant documents (to be identified) generated by other CLIVAR and WCRP teams, in particular the WGCM Decadal Climate Prediction Panel (DCPP). The research time horizon covered by the prospectus will be on the order of 5 years (2014-2019). The Team will communicate by various means that will include e-mail, tele-conference, and opportunistic workshops.

2. The delivered prospectus will address four broad topics:

A) A refined list of science questions and priorities and their broader impact => element of CLIVAR science plan. (4-6 pages)

B) Recommendations toward the activities and implementation of the focussed research activities including next steps => contribution to CLIVAR implementation strategy. (2-4 pages)

C) Recommend governance arrangements for execution of this Research Focus => impact on CLIVAR organization. (2 pages, including TOR and list of potential names)

D) A summary of regional and national Funding prospects => critical for SSG approval (1-4 pages)

E) A list of synergetic activities with other CLIVAR and WCRP panels and working groups.

3. The DCVP team will report to the CLIVAR community at the pan-CLIVAR 2014 meeting about progress and to the CLIVAR SSG (fall 2014?) for approval.