death decline spiral pictures 2 (1)
TRANSCRIPT
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Decoding Death:Connecting climate and growth to
predict tree mortality across
species
Heidi SwansonBiology Senior Seminar
April 16, 2015
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I. Introduction to tree longevity
II.Growth/mortality relationships
III.Drought/growth relationships
IV.European Buckthorn
V.Final thoughts
OUTLINE
2
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WHY IS TREE MORTALITY
IMPORTANT?
• Climate change (Adams et al. 2006)
• Forest ecotones?
• We need models!
• Long-term
• Tree mortality is (hopefully) predictable
3
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4
(sometimes)
unluckylucky
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5
Trees can die
catastrophically…
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7http://news.ubc.ca/wp-
content/uploads/2013/05/601474937_1f726929ed_o.j
pg
…or they can die
after a long, hard
battle.
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8
https://cla.umn.edu/news-
events/story/evidence-suggests-
california%E2%80%99s-drought-worst-1200-
Trees struggle through
droughts. Water is
crucial for survival,
though some species
are more tolerant/use
water more efficiently.
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9Piñon trees after 2001-2002
drought
Piñon trees before 2001-2002
droughthttps://collapseofindustrialcivilizatio
n.files.wordpress.com/2013/01/pin
onpinedieoff.jpg
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10Piñon trees after 2001-2002
drought
Piñon trees before 2001-2002
droughthttps://collapseofindustrialcivilizatio
n.files.wordpress.com/2013/01/pin
onpinedieoff.jpg
Can we
figure out
how many
are going to
make it?
A few
rugged
survivors
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CLIMATE MORTALITY
11
(temperature,
drought)(who dies???)
?????
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?????CLIMATE MORTALITY
12
(temperature,
drought)(who dies???)
???
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13Piñon trees after 2001-2002
drought
Piñon trees before 2001-2002
droughthttps://collapseofindustrialcivilizatio
n.files.wordpress.com/2013/01/pin
onpinedieoff.jpg
Can we
figure out
how many
are going to
make it?
A few
rugged
survivors
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14
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WHY IS TREE MORTALITY
IMPORTANT?
• Climate change (Adams et al. 2006)
• Forest ecotones?
• We need models!
• Long-term
• Tree mortality is (hopefully) predictable
15
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WHY IS TREE MORTALITY
IMPORTANT?
• Climate change (Adams et al. 2006)
• Forest ecotones?
• We need models!
• Long-term
• Tree mortality is (hopefully) predictable but poorly understood
16
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NOT ALL TREES WILL KICK THE
BUCKET…
17(Pedersen et al.
1999)
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18Piñon trees after 2001-2002
drought
Piñon trees before 2001-2002
droughthttps://collapseofindustrialcivilizatio
n.files.wordpress.com/2013/01/pin
onpinedieoff.jpg
What’s
different
about them?
A few
rugged
survivors
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GROWTH MORTALITY
19
(a proxy for vigor)
GROWTH – A USEFUL
(who dies)
SYMPTOM
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WHAT AFFECTS HOW
TREES GROW?
• Competition, disturbance,
climate…
• Structural limitations (Koch et al. 2004)
20
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CLIMATE GROWTH
21
(a proxy for vigor)
CLIMATE – A USEFUL
(temperature,
drought)
PREDICTOR
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GROWTH MORTALITY
22
(a proxy for vigor)
GROWTH – A USEFUL
(who dies)
SYMPTOM
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CLIMATE GROWTH MORTALITY
23
(a proxy for vigor)
GROWTH – A USEFUL
(temperature,
drought)(who dies)
INTERMEDIATE
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CLIMATE GROWTH MORTALITY
24
(a proxy for vigor)
GROWTH – A USEFUL
(temperature,
drought)(who dies)
INTERMEDIATE
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WHAT AFFECTS HOW
TREES GROW?
• Competition, disturbance, climate…
• Structural limitations (Koch et al. 2004)
25
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GROWTH PATTERNS: CONVENTIONAL WISDOM
Growth slows with increasing size and
age? (Bowman et al. 2013)
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GROWTH PATTERNS: CONVENTIONAL WISDOM
Growth slows with increasing size and
age? (Bowman et al. 2013)
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28
GROWTH PATTERNS: CONVENTIONAL WISDOM
Growth slows with increasing size and
age? (Bowman et al. 2013)
r
r2
r3
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29
….Or unconstrained growth across
lifespan? (Stephenson et al. 2014)
GROWTH PATTERNS: HYPOTHESIS OF
THE RENEGADES
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30
….Or unconstrained growth across
lifespan? (Stephenson et al. 2014)
GROWTH PATTERNS: HYPOTHESIS OF
THE RENEGADES
403 different
species?!?
Six
continents?!?
673,046 trees?!?
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CLIMATE GROWTH MORTALITY
32
(a proxy for vigor)
GROWTH – A USEFUL
(temperature,
drought)(who dies)
INTERMEDIATE
(BUT NOT
FLAWLESS)
crude
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INTER-SPECIES TRADEOFFS
Loehle et al. (1988)
• Slow-growing species
often live longer than
fast-growing pioneer
species in the absence
of drought
• Growth/defense
tradeoffs
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34
Between
individuals
(within the
same
species):
Between
species:
Slow-growing,
Long-lived
Fast-growing,
Short-lived
Fast-growing,
?????
Slow-growing,
?????
Slow-growing,
?????
Fast-growing,
?????
vs
vsvs
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IMPORTANT QUESTIONS
• How do different growth rates between individuals within a species affect mortality/longevity?
• Can we use climate variables to predict species-specific mortality?
35
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I. Introduction to tree longevity
II.Growth/mortality relationships
III.Drought/growth relationships
IV.European Buckthorn
V.Final thoughts
OUTLINE
36
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BIGLER AND VEBLEN (2009)
Do fast-growing
conifer
individuals live
shorter lives than
slow-growing
individuals of the
same species?
37http://en.es-static.us/upl/2011/03/tall_short_trees.jpg
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METHODS
• Roosevelt National Forest (Colorado); Davos, Switzerland
• Sampled all standing dead
• Subalpine fir (70 trees), Engelmann spruce (50 trees), Norway spruce (41 trees)
• Two increment cores per tree
• Crossdating
38http://www.planat.ch/uploads/pics/p0134_02.jpg
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METHOD: RADIAL
INCREMENT
MEASUREMENTS
39Xylem rings
Vascular
cambium phloem
bark
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0.4
mm
0.2
mm
0.3
mm
0.5 mm
0.6
mm
0.4 mm
0.4 mm
Ring # Width
0 0.3
1 0.4
2 0.5
3 0.2
4 0.6
5 0.4
6 0.4
40
Year Width
2008 0.3
2009 0.4
2010 0.5
2011 0.2
2012 0.6
2013 0.4
2014 0.4
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HOW DO WE DATE DEAD
TREES?
41
• Cross-dating
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HOW DO WE DATE DEAD
TREES?
• Cross-dating
42
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HOW DO WE VERIFY OUR
DATES?
Quality control – with software
Identify errors in measurement
• Correlation analysis of each successive segment
• Test segments of series against same segments of master dating series created from all other series
12x magnification of European buckthorn rings
43
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SIZE OF SHORT-LIVED VS. LONG-LIVED
INDIVIDUALS
44
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EFFECTS OF EARLY GROWTH RATES
ON LONGEVITY
45
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46
Between
individuals
(within the
same
species):
Between
species:
Slow-growing,
Long-lived
Fast-growing,
Short-lived
Fast-growing,
short-lived
Slow-growing,
long-lived
Slow-growing,
?????
Fast-growing,
?????
vs
vsvs
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IRELAND ET AL. (2014)
Are early growth
rates in quaking
aspen predictive
of longevity?
47http://99viral.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/Quaking-Aspen.jpg
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METHODS
• Kaibab National Forest – northern Arizona
• Aspen/fir/pine forests
• Increment cores from both living and standing dead overstory
aspen
48
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GROWTH RATES FOR LIVE VS. DEAD
TREES
49
Live
Dead
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EARLY AND LIFETIME GROWTH
RATES FOR LIVE VS. DEAD TREES
50
First 50 years
Lifetime
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51
Between
individuals
(within the
same
species):
Between
species:
Slow-growing,
Long-lived
Fast-growing,
Short-lived
Fast-growing,
short-lived
Slow-growing,
long-livedSlow-growing,
short-lived
Fast-growing,
long-lived
vs
vs vs
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I. Introduction to tree longevity
II. Growth/mortality relationships
III. Drought/growth relationships
IV. European Buckthorn
V. Final thoughts
52
OUTLINE
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CLIMATE GROWTH MORTALITY
53
(a proxy for vigor)
GROWTH – A USEFUL
(temperature,
drought)(who dies)
INTERMEDIATE
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WYCKOFF AND BOWERS
2010
• Three sites: Maplewood State Park, Glacial Lakes State Park, Sibley State Park
• Bur oak
• 52 trees for climate growth
• 33 dead and 30 living trees for growthmortality
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STUDY SITES
Maplewood State Park,
Glacial Lakes State Park,
Sibley State Park
55
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56
PDSI
PALMER DROUGHT SEVERITY
INDEX (PDSI)
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CLIMATE GROWTH
57
In drought
conditions,
growth rates
are low.
WETDRY WETDRY
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58
DIVERGENCE IN GROWTH: LIVING
VS. DEAD TREES
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GROWTH MORTALITY
59
When growth
rates are low,
the probability
of mortality is
high.
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CLIMATE GROWTH MORTALITY
60
(a proxy for vigor)
GROWTH – A USEFUL
(temperature,
drought)(who dies)
INTERMEDIATE
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CLIMATE MORTALITY
61
Prediction: In
drought
conditions, the
probability of
mortality is
high
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I. Introduction to tree longevity
II.Growth/mortality relationships
III.Drought/growth relationships
IV.European Buckthorn
V.Final thoughts
OUTLINE
62
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EUROPEAN
BUCKTHORN
63
• Non-native, pervasive
species in MN
• Will its spread be
facilitated by climate
change?
• No studies on
buckthorn growth
response to climate
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METHODS
Destructive removal
• 30 – 40 European
buckthorn trees per
site
• Ginseng Road Farm,
Niemackl Lake Park,
Monson Lake State
Park
64
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METHODS
65
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METHODS
66
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METHODS
Dating
• Initially assume
last year = 2014
for all trees, plot
ring width
increments in
Excel for internal
cross-dating
67
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
1996 2001 2006 2011
Tree 1
GRF1b1 GRF1b2 GRF1a1 GRF1a2
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68
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
1995 2000 2005 2010
Tree 1
GRF1a1
GRF1a2
GRF1b1
GRF1b2
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METHODS
• Use COFECHA to identify false/missing rings, obtain
accurate dated series
69
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METHODS
Detrend with ARSTAN
Remove age-related growth trends and retain climate signal
70http://www.ltrr.arizona.edu/~sheppard/workshop/quant.gif
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GROWTH PATTERNS: CONVENTIONAL WISDOM
Growth slows with increasing size and
age? (Bowman et al. 2013)
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METHODS
Detrend with ARSTAN
Remove age-related growth trends and retain climate signal
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y = 0.0234x + 0.983R² = 0.3566
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
-8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6
Rad
ial g
row
th (
detr
en
ded
)
Palmer Drought Severity (PDSI) Index
July Drought (PDSI) versus Detrended European Buckthorn Growth
DRY WET
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SEEDLING PLOTS
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75-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5
Re
lati
ve G
row
th R
ate
PDSI Index
Ash
Bur Oak
EuropeanBuckthorn
DRY WET
Drought vs lifetime average growth across
species
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0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2
0246810121416
Ave
rag
e r
ad
ial g
row
th (
mm
yr-
1)
Years before coring
Average annual radial growth trends for living and recently dead trees
Dead Live
Live vs dead: no
gap
Live vs dead: wide gap
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y = 0.0199x + 0.0849R² = 0.8236
y = 0.0309x + 0.0324R² = 0.8701
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
0.45
0.5
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16
Lif
eti
me a
vera
ge g
row
th r
ate
(m
m y
r-1)
Diameter (DBH)
Lifetime Average Growth Rates of Live and Dead Trees Across Sizes
Dead Live
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I. Introduction to tree longevity
II.Growth/mortality relationships
III.Drought/growth relationships
IV.European Buckthorn
V.Final thoughts
OUTLINE
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CONCLUSIONS
• No universal growth-mortality relationship
• Tradeoffs between growth and longevity
• Species differ in their drought response
• Buckthorn more sensitive to summer drought (relative to
other species) than expected
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FUTURE RESEARCH?
• What makes buckthorn respond the way it does?
• Compare buckthorn’s response to that of native species
• Other sites?
• Seasonal responses?
• How will differences in drought response between species
affect their competitive interactions?
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ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
• Peter Wyckoff
• UMM Biology faculty
• Friends & family
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QUESTIONS