Dealing with Uncertainty:Dealing with Uncertainty:Navigating Biodiversity ChangeNavigating Biodiversity Change

in Canada’s Arctic National Parksin Canada’s Arctic National Parks

Torngat Mountains National Park, LabradorPhoto: D. McLennan

ARCTIC BIODIVERSITY SYMPOSIUMMUSEUM OF NATURE, OTTAWA, NOVEMBER 2010

Outline

1. Parks Canada in the North2. Arctic climate change - synopsis3. Navigating biodiversity change -

a proposed proactive adaption strategy for Arctic national parks

4. A strategy for the Arctic?

Protected Areas in the Canadian Arctic

Parks Canada Agency •one of most extensive systems of protected areas in the world.• protects and presents these treasures on behalf of Canadians• celebrating 125 years of natural heritage conservation

On behalf of the people of Canada, we protect and present nationally significant examples of Canada's natural and cultural heritage and foster public understanding, appreciation and enjoyment in ways that

ensure their ecological and commemorative integrity for present and

future generations.

So…. what about climate

change?

Orcas in Hudson Bay

Arctic shrub increases

Sea ice disappearing

Sirmilik NP

• increased ‘greening’ • increased productivity• permafrost slumping• lemming cycle dampening?

?

Increased productivity

With permission Cadieux et al 2008

Permafrost Melting

Photo: Joseph Culp/Erik Luikers, EC

Analysis by Rob Fraser and Ian Olthof, CCRS

With permission Cadieux et al 2008

?1992-2008

National Park

5-8

km/y

r ??

5-8

km/y

r ??

Application of Lawler (2009) models by Katherine Lindsay, EC

Synopsis: Arctic Change

1. Arctic climate is changing rapidly2. Arctic ecosystems are also responding, but much less

rapidlyi. terrestrial physical environment showing important changesii. biota less responsive – mainly in situ productivity/relative

dominance changes

3. How fast? What species? Species interactions? Disease? Species adaptation? Climate feedbacks? C dynamics?

4. more questions than answers 5. monitoring and research to reduce uncertainty

Reducing Uncertainty A Model for Proactive Adaptive Management

Conduct/upgrade process-based

inventories

Park Management Plan

‘Maintain or restore EI’consultation and decisions

set 5-15 year targets

Ecological Integrity Monitoring

What change is happening in park ecosystems?

State of the Park Report

Scoping Document

Focussed Research

How and how fast are park ecosystems changing?

Management Decision Support

1. Outline key issues2. Provide a 5-15 year forecast3. Outline options and risks

Focal watershedIvatak Brook

Focal watershedNachvak Brook

‘Mapping Ecological Integrity’Biodiversity + Ecosystem process

na

LONG TERM SITES(FOCAL ECOSYSTEMS)

Tundra/Wetland/Forest• vegetation change (ITEX, surveys, structure, biomass)• active layer (CALM)• soil temperature• snow• small mammals• songbirds• (arthropods)

Streams• benthic inverts• discharge• water quality• char/fish community

OTHER GROUND MEASURES

Tundra/Wetland grizzly, fox, caribou, muskox, raptors, BBS, lemmings, plant phenology

Lakes and Streamschar/fish community, Harlequin ducks

Coastalpolar bears, coastal fish, shorebirds/waterfowl, raptors

REMOTE SENSING

ParkSPACE Measures

• land cover (ecotype/community)• productivity (biomass and VIs)• permafrost (NEST)• lake and river ice• coastal change• glaciers (area, retreat, mass balance)

Ecotype MapIvvavik NP

• eastern boundary of Beringia – unglaciated• most northerly forests in NA – south facing slopes• 28 ecotypes• important range for Porcupine Caribou Herd

The Coast• increased coastal erosion/sedimentation• changing hydrology in estuaries and lagoons• coastal fish ecology and access to streams• direct effects on ice-dependent species (polar bears, seals, walrus)

Tundra and Wetlands• ongoing influx of southern species• effects on caribou • increasing shrubs and trees• > tundra fire? snow? CO2?

Streams and Lakes• changes in flooding; break up/freeze up • > mass wasting? • changes in permafrost and thermokarst• mountain stream winter freezing?• effects on charr - new fish species (salmon?)

Potential Climate Change Effects-

Ivvavik NP

Opportunities for Development

PorcupinePorcupine

Bluenose WestBluenose West

BathurstBeverlyBluenose EastAhiakQaminirjuaq

BathurstBeverlyBluenose EastAhiakQaminirjuaq

The Challenge• navigating the combined ecological effects of climate

change and Northern development to foster social-ecological resilience and mitigate biodiversity loss

• Success will depend a new kind of inclusive approach that coordinates and optimizes the efforts of all Northern actors.

An Arctic Model for Proactive Adaptive Management

Northern Strategy

(‘Northern Management Ctte”)consultation and decisions

set 5-15 year targets

Focussed Research

How and how fast are Arctic ecosystems changing?

Coordinated Monitoring

What change is happening in Arctic ecosystems?

Management Decision Support

1. Outline key issues2. Provide a 5-15 year forecast3. Outline options and risks

State of the Arctic Report

Pan-arctic Inventory

Scoping

Ongoing Arctic Monitoring InitiativesFederal

• Parks Canada EI Monitoring• EC/MSC/WSC – climate, water

quantity and quality, CABIN• EC/CWS – caribou, polar bears,

migratory birds, seabirds, • EC – CBMP EMG Freshwater• DFO – CBMP EMG Marine• INAC – BREA , MGP

Territories and Others• Territories (INAC)

– NWT - CIMP– Nunavut - NGMP

• Communities– Arctic Borderlands– Sea Ice Nunavut – others

• Industry– Akati Mines– Mackenzie gas pipeline

• Academia– CEN– Arctic Net

National Park

Tundra Ecosystems – Olthof et al. CCRS

CHARS

Community > 1,000

Science Sites

Canada’s Arctic and PAs

Canadian Arctic and Sub-Arctic Protected Areas

Arctic National Parks as INoRMs Integrated Network of Research and Monitoring

1. ‘baselines’ of Arctic ecological change 2. Focal Watersheds Model: ecological inventories, long term

monitoring sites, stream discharge, weather stations; 3. “sites for science”4. long term commitment to EI monitoring and reporting 5. cooperative management with Indigenous partners6. present in northern communities/ operational in the field7. research logistical support – transportation, safety

Northern ScienceBuild on IPY Momentum

• world-leading science coordinated nationally and cooperating internationally

• “From Knowledge to Action” IPY Montreal 2012• strong outreach/communication component • effective interaction with Arctic communities• legacy of young scientists to ‘carry the torch’

Keys to Success

1.Work together on pan-Arctic objectives set out in the Northern Strategy

2.Empower northern communities as a key component of the solution

3.Invest in a knowledge system to reduce uncertainty and understand change

An unknown future

working together for a common future

Please Contact:Donald McLennanParks Canada Agency25 rue Eddy, Hull, QC, K1A0M5Tel: (819) 953 6464email: donald.mclennan@pc.gc.ca

1. Research Summaries• plain language summary of research results • implications for park management objectives• risks/benefits of acting/not acting• identify emerging issues

2. Process Models and Projections • scaled down climate models, weather projections• 5 – 15 year projections of ecosystem change• model monitoring/model improvements/model

iterations

Science Management Support

The Role of Traditional Knowledge

There is now less snow fall and the only snow fall we get, the wind blows it away so it doesn’t have time to build up and get compact. Now we just have very small snowdrifts. The snow drifts in the past were so big that the igloos were automatically half way built.

[Original in Inuktitut – Inuit Knowledge Project]

Figure4.4. Mean annual air and soil temperatures (at 2-cm and 10-cm depths) from 1995 to 2002 in the Qarlikturvik Valley lowlands, Bylot Island (Gagnon et al., 2004).

The Need to Collaborate Internationally

1. the circum-polar Arctic is one interconnected and interdependent ecosystem - need for cooperation

2. build on IPY progress and further increase circumpolar cooperation and collaboration (ITEX, PPS, seabirds, others)

3. SAON, IASC, and many other initiatives ongoing 4. broaden opportunities for science funding; access to global

expertise5. CBMP links biodiversity monitoring – Expert Monitoring

Groups6. Canada takes over Chair of Arctic Council next

S&T ProgramExtensive process to define S&T priorities for

CHARS• Scoping and synthesis papers• Visioning Workshop• International panel convened by Council

of Canadian Academies

Sustainable resource development

Environmental science & stewardship

Climate change

Healthy & sustainable communities

Canadian Visioning workshop’s proposed S&T priority themes: