dealership industry quarterly update q4 2018 … · cervus equipment corporation is a global...

QUARTERLY UPDATE Q4 2018

DEALERSHIP INDUSTRY

INDUSTRY OVERVIEW

1: Capital IQ. Data as of December 31, 2018; SEC Filings via Haig Report.2: https://canada.autonews.com3: https://todaystrucking.com

• Continued consolidation in the industry.

• Dealership location, brand and strength of management team continues to play an importantrole in valuation.

• Owners of single location dealerships are feeling vulnerable to the potential disruption thattechnological changes could have on the traditional dealership model. Valuations are stillhigh, so those planning on exiting within the next 10 years may want to consider it in thenear future.2

• We are still currently experiencing a ‘sellers’ market among both independents and multi-location groups depending on location and company specific factors.

• Fragmented marketplace presents an opportunity for merger and acquisition (M&A) activityamongst independents.

• Canadians purchased 35,700 Class 8 trucks last year which is 29 percent above levels seen in2017, and analysts forecasted unit sales of 36,800 in 2019 and a decline to 26,100 Class 8trucks in 2020 – a drop of 29 percent.3

• Established and emerging manufacturers alike are racing to bring some form of battery-electric vehicles or fuel cells to North America, with several introducing all-important testfleets during 2019.3

• Weak Canadian dollar is impairing margin and performance of Canadian-based dealershipsthat source from the U.S. Trade dispute concerns continue to linger.

• Continued consolidation and interest of remaining independent dealerships with buyer poolshrinking may balance out valuation multiples in line with historical averages.

• Accelerated consolidation amongst Case-IH and New Holland dealers with a push at the OEMlevel for independents to sell. Valuations can vary significantly by location.

AUTOMOTIVE

HEAVY TRUCK

AG IMPLEMENT

M&A TRANSACTIONS & PERFORMANCE

977 M

2,207 M

1,126 M913 M

1,350 M986 M

-

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

-

500 M

1,000 M

1,500 M

2,000 M

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Tra

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PUBLICLY DISCLOSED DEALERSHIP TRANSACTIONS (NORTH AMERICA)1

Transaction Value Transaction Volume

-

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

-

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

Pa

ssen

ger

Veh

icle

Sa

les

(Un

its)

CANADIAN PASSENGER VEHICLE SALES1

Cars Light Truck (includes SUVs and crossovers) Domestic (%) Foreign (%)

-53.0%

-26.0%-20.4%

-11.8%

10.1%

22.7%

-60%

-40%

-20%

-

20%

40%

60%

2015 2016 2017 2018

3 YEAR INDEX PERFORMANCE2

AutoCanada Inc. US Dealership Peers Domestic OEM Peers

Foreign OEM Peers TSX S&P 500

Fourth quarter 2018 passenger vehicle sales fall short of the same quarter in 2017 by 28,032 units and was the lowestfourth quarter in five years. The net decrease in units sold was comprised of a decrease of 12,353 cars and 15,659 lighttrucks, capturing the shift in consumer preference towards SUVs and crossovers. The split in domestic vs. foreign salesfrom fourth quarter 2017 to fourth quarter 2018 has shifted further towards foreign vehicles, the highest percentage infour years.

INDUSTRY SNAPSHOT

1: Desrosiers Automotive Consultants monthly reports, January 2015 – December 2018.2: Capital IQ. Data as of December 31, 2018.3: US Dealership Peers: AutoNation, Group 1 Automotive, Asbury Automotive, Sonic Automotive, Lithia Motors and Penske Automotive. Domestic OEMPeers: General Motors, Ford, and Fiat Chrysler. Foreign OEM Peers: Toyota, Honda and Nissan.Note: LTM refers to last twelve months.

2018201720162015

AUTOMOTIVE

Q4 2018LTM

-16.73%-49.87%

AutoCanada Inc. (Canada’s only publicly traded automotive dealership group) continues to see softness in share priceover the past three years. The U.S. dealership peer group, as well as the domestic and foreign OEM peer groups, have alsoexperienced declines in share price from 2015, lagging behind both the TSX and S&P 500.

AutoCanada Inc.

3 3

3

Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4

62.5m

133.6m

63.8m

24.9m 17.0m

134.9m

-

20 M

40 M

60 M

80 M

100 M

120 M

140 M

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Tra

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AUTOCANADA INC. DISCLOSED TRANSACTION VALUES1

Publicly Disclosed Transaction Values

6 Year AutoCanada

Disclosed

M&A Glance1

Total Deal Value (CAD$)

436.7mTotal Number of Transactions

26Average Transaction Value

16.8m

AutoCanada Inc. M&A Review1

• The only publicly traded automotive dealership in Canada isAutoCanada Inc., and is, therefore, the closest publicly availablecomparable to a privately owned car dealership.

• AutoCanada is one of Canada’s largest multi-location automobiledealership groups, currently operating 68 franchised dealerships inCanada and the U.S. AutoCanada is well diversified, offering 28 brandsof vehicles.

• AutoCanada had a large $111 million transaction in March 2018where they acquired a dealership group of 8 locations in the U.S.,making up the bulk of their deal activity in 2018.

• With the recent expansion into the U.S., aggregate transaction valuesfor AutoCanada Inc. surpassed the last high seen in 2014.

• AutoCanada acquired its 68th franchised location and 28th brand inNovember 2018 with the purchase of its first Ford dealership, locatedin Windsor, Ontario.

1: Capital IQ. Data as of December 31, 2018. M&A summary data is based on publicly disclosed transactions. Not all transactions have disclosedfinancial information. Currency in CAD.

AUTOMOTIVE

INDUSTRY SNAPSHOT

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

-

2%

4%

6%

Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3

-

100 M

200 M

300 M

400 M

500 M

Net

Pro

fit B

efo

re T

ax

(% o

f R

even

ue)

Hea

vy T

ruck

Sa

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(CA

D$

Mil

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PENSKE & CERVUS HEAVY TRUCK DIVISION PERFORMANCE1

Penske Heavy Truck Sales ($) Cervus Heavy Truck Sales ($)

Penske Heavy Truck Net Profit (%) Cervus Heavy Truck Net Profit (%)

-4.8%-3.9%

-13.1%

10.1%

22.7%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

2015 2016 2017 2018

3 Year Index Performance1

Penske Automotive Group, Inc. Cervus Equipment Corporation OEM Peers

TSX S&P 500

Q4 2018LTM

-6.52%-15.23%

Q42

Penske Automotive Group is a publicly traded, global dealership group. While their focus is on automotive, Penske alsohas a heavy truck division. Cervus Equipment Corporation is a global agricultural, construction and heavy truck dealershipgroup. While agriculturally focused, Cervus generates approximately 25 percent of its sales from its Peterbilt heavy truckdivision. Heavy truck revenues and net profit margins from these two publicly comparable companies have been isolatedin order to gauge divisional performance as a metric for the industry in general.

1: Capital IQ. Data as of December 31, 2018.2: Penske Automotive Group and Cervus Equipment Corporation are both diversified companies, therefore the share price performances shown aboveare not inherently related to the performance of their heavy truck divisions.3: OEM Peers: Daimler AG (Freightliner, Western Star), AB Volvo (Volvo, Mack), Navistar (International) and PACCAR Inc. (Kenworth, Peterbilt).

Penske Automotive Group has seen volatility in share prices, with a large decline in the first quarter of 2018, followed by amodest recovery in the second quarter but slip in third and fourth quarters 2018. Cervus Equipment has experienced anoverall average flat trend since the fourth quarter of 2015, but has been volatile over that period. The heavy truck OEMpeer group has dropped dramatically over the past three quarters, and currently trades approximately 13 percent belowits share price of three years ago.

HEAVY TRUCK

INDUSTRY SNAPSHOT

201720162015

3

Cervus Equipment

Q4 2018LTM

-14.92%-15.74%

Penske Automotive

Q4 Q4 Q42

2018

-

2 B

4 B

6 B

8 B

10 B

12 B

100 M

150 M

200 M

250 M

300 M

350 M

400 M

450 M

Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3

Farm

Ca

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(C

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Rev

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REVENUE1 VS. FARM CASH RECEIPTS2 PER QUARTER

Rocky Mountain Equipment Cervus Equipment Farm Cash Receipts (AB, SK, MB)

17.5%

62.3%

10.1%

22.7%

-20%

-

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

2015 2016 2017 2018

3 Year Index Performance1

Dealership Peers OEM Peers TSX S&P 500

Farm cash receipts have trended upwards since 2014 with third quarter 2018 receipts exceeding third quarter 2014 by 4percent, with a defined pattern of drastic annual fluctuations. Agriculture implement and equipment sales tend to displayan inverse pattern, trailing farm cash receipts but following general trends. Agriculture implement and equipment saleshave also trended upwards since 2014.

The dealership peer group has underperformed the OEM peer group and the S&P 500 from fourth quarter 2015 to fourthquarter 2018. While a share price rebound was seen near the end of 2017, 2018 saw a large decline in share price. Theagricultural implement/construction OEM peer group has seen significant index out-performance over the past two years,with a slight decline over 2018.

1: Capital IQ. Data as of December 31, 2018.2: Farm product prices, crops and livestock – Statistics Canada.3: Dealership Peers: Rocky Mountain Equipment, Cervus and Titan Machinery. OEM Peers: Deere & Company (John Deere), CNH Industrial (Case IH, NewHolland), Kuboto Corp., Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) and AGCO Corporation (Massey Ferguson).

20172016201520142013

AGRICULTURAL IMPLEMENT

INDUSTRY SNAPSHOT

Q4 2018LTM

-14.98%-35.14%

Dealership Peers

Q4 2018LTM

-12.82%-17.79%

OEM Peers

3 3

Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4

2018

MACRO ECONOMIC INDICATORS

-

0.50%

1.00%

1.50%

2.00%

2.50%

3.00%

%

PRIME INTEREST RATE2

95

98

101

104

107

110

113

116

119

Ind

ex

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX1

25,000

28,000

31,000

34,000

37,000

40,000

43,000

CA

D$

PER CAPITA DISPOSABLE INCOME1

1.75

1.80

1.85

1.90

1.95

2.00

2.05

2.10

2.15

CA

D$

Mil

lio

ns

NEW VEHICLE SALES1

The key external drivers that affect the various dealership industries in Canada include: new vehicle sales, per capitadisposal income, consumer confidence index, prime interest rate, gross domestic product, farm cash receipts and cropcommodity prices. In general, most key industry drivers point toward a positive industry outlook. However, with the Bankof Canada interest rate increase in 2018 to 1.75 percent, rate headwinds could have an impact on vehicle purchases,leasing, and dealership profitability due to higher carrying costs of floor plan financing. The full impact of recent andexpected rate increases are not yet known. Further, recent trade wars and higher consumer borrowing costs areprojected to erode consumer confidence.

1: IBISWorld Industry Reports2: Bank of CanadaNote: “F” indicates forecast.

Further rate increases expected

Strong Outlook In Industry Drivers

MACRO ECONOMIC INDICATORS

102

104

106

108

110

112

114

116

118

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

Nov-14 May-15 Nov-15 May-16 Nov-16 May-17 Nov-17 May-18

Farm

Pri

ce I

np

ut

Ind

ex

CA

D$/

met

ric

ton

ne

CROP COMMODITY PRICES2

Wheat - excl. durum Durum Barley Soybeans Grain corn

Flaxseed Canola Lentils Dry peas Farm input price index

1.3 T

1.6 T

1.9 T

2.2 T

2.5 T

CA

D$

Tri

llio

ns

GDP - CANADA1

-

2 B

4 B

6 B

8 B

10 B

12 B

14 B

16 B

CA

D$

Bil

lio

ns

FARM CASH RECEIPTS (AB, SK, MB)2

1: IBISWorld Industry Reports2: Farm product prices, crops and livestock – Statistics Canada.

Farm

Inp

ut

Pri

ce In

dex

SELECT RECENT M&A TRANSACTIONS

Location Ontario

Date December 2018

• Jim Pattison Auto Group (“PAG) has acquired CanyonCreek Toyota. MNP Corporate Finance Inc. acted asexclusive financial advisor to Canyon Creek Toyota instructuring and negotiating this transaction.

• Canyon Creek’s owners founded the business in 1992.

• Today, JPAG is comprised of 12 brands and more than25 locations across Western Canada.

• Redhead Equipment has acquired Norsask FarmEquipment Ltd. MNP Corporate Finance Inc. acted asexclusive financial advisor to Norsask Farm EquipmentLtd. in structuring and negotiating this transaction.

• Norsask is a full-service Case IH farm equipmentdealership and is located near North Battleford,Saskatchewan.

• Redhead is a large and comprehensive multi-line heavyequipment dealer in Saskatchewan.

• Publicly listed AutoCanada acquired Rose City Ford inWindsor, Ontario, making it the first Ford store inCanada for AutoCanada after Ford Canada’s policychange regarding public company ownership.

• Rose City Ford is a 65,000-square-foot dealership thatemploys approximately 65 staff and sells approximately1,425 vehicles annually.

acquired

acquired

Location Saskatchewan

Date November 2018

Location Ontario

Date November 2018

Location Alberta

Date October 2018

acquired

• Publicly listed Automotive Properties Real EstateInvestment Trust of Canada recently completed anacquisition of the Brimell Toyota automotive dealershipproperty in Scarborough, Ontario for a purchase priceof approximately C$26 million.

• Brimell Toyota is a full-service dealership that was builtin 2002 and includes a collision centre and car wash andrepresents a total gross leasable area of 55,600 squarefeet.

acquired the property of

PUBLIC COMPARABLE ANALYSISGROWTH, MARGINS & MULTIPLES

13%

11%

11%

5%

5%

4%

- 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14%

Ag Implement/Construction OEMs

Heavy Trucks OEMs

Automobile OEMs

Ag Implement/Construction Dealerships

Heavy Truck Dealerships

Automotive Dealerships

Median EBITDA Margin (LTM)1

4%

-5%

4%

4%

5%

- 2% 4% 6%


Heavy Trucks OEMs

Automobile OEMs




Median Revenue Growth (NTM)1

19%

17%

2%

6%

27%

5%

- 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%


Heavy Trucks OEMs

Automobile OEMs




Median Revenue Growth (LTM)1

13%

2%

8%

1: Capital IQ. Data as of December 31st, 2018.2: Heavy Truck Dealerships are comprised of two divisions of larger companies. Forward-looking information is not available on a divisional basis.Note: “LTM” refers to last twelve months. “NTM” refers to next twelve months.

Note 2

Agriculture Implement/Construction Dealerships



Agriculture Implement/Construction OEMs



PUBLIC COMPARABLE ANALYSISGROWTH, MARGINS & MULTIPLES

9.5x

7.6x

9.1x

11.5x

9.8x

- 2.0x 4.0x 6.0x 8.0x 10.0x 12.0x 14.0x


Heavy Trucks OEMs

Automobile OEMs




Median EV/EBITDA (NTM)1

10.1x

8.3x

7.1x

11.8x

9.5x

- 2.0x 4.0x 6.0x 8.0x 10.0x 12.0x 14.0x


Heavy Trucks OEMs

Automobile OEMs




Median EV/EBITDA (LTM)1

14%

13%

11%

4%

3%

- 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16%


Heavy Trucks OEMs

Automobile OEMs




Median EBITDA Margin (NTM)19%

9.4x

9.5x

1: Capital IQ. Data as of December 31st, 2018.2: Heavy Truck Dealerships are comprised of two divisions of larger companies. Enterprise Value and forward-looking information are not available on adivisional basis.Note: “LTM” refers to last twelve months. “NTM” refers to next twelve months. EV/EBITDA multiples may include real estate.

Note 2

Note 2

Note 2







PUBLIC COMPARABLE ANALYSISTRADING MULTIPLES & OPERATING STATISTICS

$CAD 'millions

Company Notes

Market

Capitalization

Enterprise

Value Revenue

Revenue

Growth EBITDA

EBITDA

Margin

Revenue

Growth

EBITDA

Margin

NTM

EV/EBITDA

LTM

EV/EBITDA LTM EV/REV


AutoCanada Inc. $311 $1,446 $3,101 3.4% $72 2.3% 6.4% 2.8% 15.6x 20.1x .5x

AutoNation, Inc. $4,381 $12,729 $28,031 1.7% $1,216 4.3% 2.6% 4.3% 9.8x 9.9x .4x

Group 1 Automotive, Inc. $1,330 $5,189 $15,012 6.8% $607 4.0% 2.0% 3.3% 9.7x 8.1x .3x

Asbury Automotive Group, Inc. $1,783 $4,206 $8,740 4.8% $449 5.1% 3.8% 4.6% 9.7x 8.9x .5x

Sonic Automotive, Inc. $803 $4,061 $12,985 3.0% $409 3.2% 6.1% 2.9% 9.7x 9.4x .3x

Li thia Motors , Inc. $2,451 $6,879 $14,932 19.4% $683 4.6% 9.0% 4.0% 10.0x 9.5x .4x

Penske Automotive Group, Inc. $4,669 $12,318 $29,400 8.9% $1,162 4.0% 4.6% 3.4% 11.7x 10.0x .4x

Median $1,783 $5,189 $14,932 4.8% $607 4.0% 4.6% 3.4% 9.8x 9.5x .4x

Mean $2,247 $6,690 $16,029 6.8% $657 3.9% 4.9% 3.6% 10.9x 10.8x .4x


Penske Automotive - Heavy Truck 2 $1,742 38.2% $90 5.2%

Cervus Equipment - Heavy Truck 2 $344 15.2% $14 3.9%

Median $1,043 26.7% $52 4.5%

Mean $1,043 26.7% $52 4.5%


Rocky Mountain Dealerships Inc. $175 $563 $1,029 6.0% $47 4.5% 4.1% 3.5% 14.8x 12.1x .5x

Cervus Equipment Corporation $199 $404 $1,323 8.4% $61 4.6% 3.0% 4.5% 6.6x 6.6x .3x

Ti tan Machinery Inc. $389 $874 $1,642 5.7% $71 4.4% 5.4% 4.3% 11.5x 11.8x .5x

Cervus Equipment - Agricul tura l 2 $907 9.6% $42 4.6%

Cervus Equipment - Construction 2 $71 (24.0%) $4 5.2%

Titan Machinery - Agricul tura l 2 $932 3.2% $38 4.1%

Titan Machinery - Construction 2 $400 3.3% $22 5.6%

Median $199 $563 $932 5.7% $42 4.6% 4.1% 4.3% 11.5x 11.8x .5x

Mean $254 $614 $901 1.7% $41 4.7% 4.2% 4.1% 11.0x 10.2x .5x

Automobile OEMs

General Motors Company $64,422 $182,476 $189,200 (1.0%) $29,439 15.6% 2.5% 15.4% 5.9x 5.9x .9x

Fiat Chrys ler Automobi les N.V. $30,723 $35,927 $170,576 5.4% $16,653 9.8% 0.9% 11.4% 1.7x 2.1x .2x

Ford Motor Company $41,524 $218,852 $218,788 2.3% $15,935 7.3% (12.1%) 8.2% 14.0x 11.2x 1.0x

Daimler AG $76,736 $266,386 $247,119 1.9% $25,198 10.2% 3.6% 10.9% 9.1x 10.2x 1.0x

Honda Motor Co., Ltd. $63,343 $126,870 $179,261 6.7% $19,036 10.6% 8.1% 9.6% 7.8x 6.1x .6x

Nissan Motor Co., Ltd. $42,822 $132,163 $134,766 (1.8%) $15,687 11.6% 9.9% 7.7% 11.2x 7.7x .9x

Toyota Motor Corporation $227,894 $423,377 $340,149 4.0% $54,536 16.0% 8.0% 11.9% 9.4x 7.1x 1.1x

Daimler AG - Automotive 2 $159,184 (0.3%) $19,430 12.2%

Median $63,343 $182,476 $184,231 2.1% $19,233 11.1% 3.6% 10.9% 9.1x 7.1x .9x

Mean $78,209 $198,007 $204,880 2.1% $24,489 11.7% 3.0% 10.7% 8.4x 7.2x .8x

Heavy Trucks OEMs

AB Volvo (publ ) $36,192 $51,581 $60,011 16.8% $6,315 10.5% (5.3%) 13.9% 6.3x 7.5x .9x

Navis tar International Corporation $3,503 $9,114 $13,476 19.6% $1,023 7.6% 4.7% 8.1% 7.6x 8.6x .7x

PACCAR Inc $27,245 $35,191 $32,061 20.8% $5,107 15.9% (6.0%) 12.5% 9.1x 8.3x 1.1x

AB Volvo - Heavy Truck 2 $36,284 15.6% $5,385 14.8%

Daimler AG - Heavy Truck 2 $56,158 7.8% $5,532 9.9%

Median $27,245 $35,191 $36,284 16.8% $5,385 10.5% (5.3%) 12.5% 7.6x 8.3x .9x

Mean $22,314 $31,962 $39,598 16.1% $4,672 11.7% (2.2%) 11.5% 7.6x 8.1x .9x


Deere & Company $64,845 $118,519 $48,914 28.4% $7,821 16.0% (4.0%) 16.8% 14.4x 14.6x 2.3x

CNH Industria l N.V. $17,014 $45,021 $35,918 13.0% $4,208 11.7% 9.3% 9.2% 11.8x 10.1x 1.2x

Kubota Corporation $23,899 $32,161 $21,022 9.5% $2,843 13.5% 8.7% 14.3% 9.5x 10.4x 1.4x

Caterpi l lar Inc. $102,320 $141,383 $74,670 20.4% $15,101 20.2% 0.3% 20.6% 9.2x 9.4x 1.9x

AGCO Corporation $5,947 $8,212 $12,005 18.0% $1,051 8.8% 4.5% 8.7% 7.3x 7.4x .6x

Deere & Company - Agricul tura l 2 $30,417 15.0% $4,932 16.2%

Deere & Company - Construction 2 $13,299 77.7% $1,558 11.7%

CNH - Agricul tura l 2 $15,843 16.6% $1,948 12.3%

CNH - Construction 2 $4,009 30.5% $216 5.4%

AB Volvo - Construction 2 $12,209 26.7% $1,940 15.9%

Median $23,899 $45,021 $18,433 19.2% $2,395 12.9% 4.5% 14.3% 9.5x 10.1x 1.4x

Mean $42,805 $69,059 $26,831 25.6% $4,162 13.2% 3.8% 13.9% 10.4x 10.4x 1.5x

(Figures In $CAD Millions, except percentages and ratios)1

LTM Operating Figures NTM Consensus Estimates Valuation

1: Capital IQ. Data as of December 31, 2018.2: Market Capitalization, Enterprise Value, and forward-looking information are not available on a divisional basis.Note: LTM refers to last twelve months. NTM refers to next twelve months. EV/EBITDA multiples may include real estate.

MNPCF – LEADERSHIP TEAM

DUE DILIGENCE LEADERSHIP

TRANSACTION LEADERSHIP

Aleem BandaliManaging Director

[email protected]

Dale AntonsenManaging Director

[email protected]

John CaggianielloManaging Director

[email protected] 416.513.4177

Brett FranklinPresident

[email protected]

Mike ReynoldsManaging Director

[email protected]

Johnny EarlManaging Director

[email protected] 604.637.1514

Dan PorterManaging Director

[email protected]

Stephen ShawManaging Director

[email protected]

Jason BurgessManaging Director

[email protected]

Mark RegehrManaging Director

[email protected]

Craig MaloneyManaging Director

[email protected]

Patrick KhouzamManaging Director

[email protected]

MNPCF – RECENT TRANSACTIONS

DEALERSHIPS

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dealership industry quarterly update q4 2018 … · cervus equipment corporation is a global...

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