DCERP Program Overview

April 18, 2013

Adrienne Wootten

DCERP History

DCERP – Defense Coastal / Estuarine Research

Program

DCERP Phase 1 – July 2006 -> Jan. 2013

• Coastal and Estuarine ecosystem composition

• Military Training Environment

DCERP Phase 2 – Feb. 2013 -> Oct. 2017

• Assessing carbon cycles

• Response of ecosystems to climate change

DCERP People

• Strategic Environmental Research and

Development Program (SERDP)

• Resource Conservation and Climate Change

(RCCC)

• Naval Facilities Engineering and Expeditionary

Warfare Center (NAVFAC EXWC)

• Marine Corps Base Camp Lejeune (MCBCL)

• DCERP Team

DCERP Team

Aquatic Analysis and Consulting, LLC Geodynamics, LLC Seahorse Coastal Consulting

DCERP2 Objectives

1. Determine how ecosystem processes respond to climate change to

understand the resiliency of these ecosystems.

2. Identify additional thresholds that can serve as indicators of tipping

point conditions that could threaten sustainability of the military

training mission.

3. Assess opportunities for adaptive management of estuarine, coastal,

and terrestrial ecosystems to enhance carbon storage

4. Convey results of scientific studies to DoD managers by

● developing clearly written products

● easy to use decision support tools and models

● products hosted on a readily accessible Web-based platform. .

DCERP2 Organization

DCERP Team

DCERP2 Organization

DCERP2 Overarching Conceptual Model

Primary Installation Site

Marine Corps Base Camp Lejeune, North Carolina

DCERP1

Monitoring and Research Stations

DCERP2 Themes

Carbon Cycle

Climate Change

Translating Science Into Practice

Climate Change

• Improve understanding of how ecosystems may respond to climate change and climate variability

• Improve understanding of inherent ecosystem resiliency to environmental stressors

• Identify opportunities for adaptive management

Climate Change

Carbon Cycle

• Improve understanding of the carbon cycle (and associated nutrient cycles)

• Develop a carbon budget for the estuarine/coastal system and evaluate impacts of current conditions and future climate change on carbon cycling

Carbon Cycle

• Evaluate forest management practices and their impacts on carbon storage now and under future climate change conditions

Translating Science into Practice

• Translate relevant scientific outcomes into clearly written, actionable information

• Determine how different management decisions can affect ecosystem services

• Discuss limitations of tools and context in which the tools apply

Translating Science Into Practice • Develop easy-to-use DS tools

and make them readily available through Web-based interface

DCERP2 Themes

Carbon Cycle

Climate Change

Translating Science Into Practice

Role of the

Principal Investigator: Dr. Ryan Boyles – Director and State Climatologist Supporting Investigator: Adrienne Wootten Goal: Provide a standardized gridded dataset for the other researchers as inputs of climate data for MCBCL.

• Historical Climatology • Projections for given emissions scenarios

Downscaling

“the process of making the link between the state some variable representing the large space and the state of some variable representing a much smaller space.” Benestad (2008)

For DCERP2 we will begin with other datasets already downscaled from the global models

Datasets

• CLAREnCE10 (COAPS Land-Atmosphere Regional Ensemble Climate Change Experiment) – FSU and USGS

• SERAP (Southeast Regional Assessment Project) – Hayhoe, Texas Tech University

• NARCCAP (North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Project) – NCAR, NOAA, NSF and more

• WICCI – David Lorenz, Wisconsin Initiative on Climate Change Impacts

• Maurer datasets – U.S. Dept. of Energy

• Hostetler datasets – USGS, Oregon State University

• Many datasets already exist

– None have a sufficient spatial resolution for ecosystem processes at MCBCL

WICCI 11km

Primary Drivers

• Temperature

• Precipitation

• Storminess

• Sea Level

Two important considerations – impact on the military mission, impact on ecosystems

Temperature

Flo

w (

m3s-

1)

Hydrologic extremes

Storminess

The two considerations

• Ecosystem impacts

– Terrestrial

– Aquatic / Estuarine

– Coastal Wetlands

– Coastal Barriers

• Military Mission – Training

Both need information on how the climate will change on the base for adaptation / management decisions.

Geospatial Marsh Model

Climate-related decision support

tools DCERP 2

Estuarine Simulation Model (ESM)

RCW DSS Tool

Climatic Drivers Potential Military Mission Impacts

Changes in temperature

Detrimental impacts could include a shift in viable training mission; reduced human activity levels, airlift capacity, and live-fire training; and increased equipment and infrastructure maintenance costs; electrical grid stress and energy costs for building and installation operations; and change in operational parameters for weapons and equipment.

Changes in precipitation patterns

Detrimental impacts could include reduced land-carrying capacity for vehicle maneuvers, live-fire training, and low-level rotary wing flight operations; and increased infrastructure damage, equipment maintenance costs, constraints on water supply, and regulatory constraints on training land access.

Beneficial impacts could include greater off-road access for vehicles and dismounted personnel due to less rainfall.

Changes in frequency, magnitude, and track of extreme events

Detrimental impacts could include an inundation of and damage to coastal infrastructure; increased flood control and erosion prevention measures, maintenance costs, and transportation infrastructure damage; and reduced off-road maneuver capacity and access to military water crossings and river operations.

Changes in sea level

Detrimental impacts could include degradation or loss of coastal areas and infrastructure, damage to physical infrastructure (roads, targets, ranges), impacts to littoral and shore training and to the supply chain from potential shipping interruptions (roadways and rail systems), increased cost of infrastructure reinforcement, and modification and regulatory constraints on training land access.

“The Department must complete a comprehensive assessment of all installations to assess the potential impacts of climate change on its missions and adapt as required.” 2010 QDR

“This planning does not assume unfortunate events will occur, only that we must be ready.” Secretary of Defense, Hon. Leon Panetta on handling budgetary uncertainty in FY13

Utility to MCBCL and other DOD installations

Research Timeline

• Engagement (Years 1 and 2)

• Work with the other modules to determine their needs

• Compile the climate metrics needed

• Historical Climatology (Year 3)

• Evaluation of methods to downscale required parameters (particularly extremes)

• Gridded Historical Climatology for MCBCL

• Future Projections (Year 4)

• A2 (IPCC AR4) or RCP 8.5 (IPCC AR5)

Contact Information:

Adrienne Wootten

919-515-3056

amwootte@ncsu.edu

Lead PI: Pat Cunningham

919-316-3722

patc@rti.org https://dcerp.rti.org