Tarek Sadek

Water Resources and Climate Change Officer

Sustainable Development and Productivity Division

Beirut, Lebanon

Alignment with the 10-Year Strategic Plan

of UNCCD: Climate Change, Water in

relation to Land Degradation

UNCCD: The 10-year Strategic Plan and

Framework

• Strategic objective 1: To improve the living

conditions of affected populations….

– Expected impact 1.2: Affected populations’ socio-

economic and environmental vulnerability to climate

change, climate variability and drought are reduced.

• Strategic Objective 2: to improve the affected

ecosystems….

– Expected impact 2.2: the vulnerability of affected

ecosystems to climate change, climate variability

and drought is reduced.

. 2

UNCCD: The 10-year Strategic Plan and

Framework…..(cont’d)

• Operational objective 1: Advocacy, awareness

raising and education

– Expected outcome 1.1: Desertification/land

degradation and drought issues and the synergies

with climate change adaptation and mitigation and

biodiversity conservation are effectively

communicated …...

– Expected outcome 1.2: Desertification/land

degradation and drought issues are addressed in

relevant international forums, including those

pertaining to … , climate change adaptation, ….

. 3

The UNCCD: The 10-year Strategic Plan and

Framework…..(cont’d)

• Operational objective 2: Policy Framework

– Outcome 2.5: Mutually reinforcing measures among

desertification/land degradation action programmes

and biodiversity and climate change mitigation and

adaptation are introduced or strengthened so as to

enhance the impact of interventions.

• Operational Objective 3: Science, technology

and knowledge

– Outcome 3.4: Knowledge of the interventions

between climate change adaptation, drought

mitigation and restoration of degraded land in

affected areas are improved to develop tools to

assist decision-making. . 4

To assess the impact of climate change on freshwater

resources in the Arab Region through a consultative and

integrated regional initiative that seeks to identify the

socio-economic and environmental vulnerability caused by

climate change impacts on water resources based on

regional specificities.

The Regional Initiative aims to provide a common platform for

addressing and responding to climate change impacts on

freshwater resources in the Arab region by serving as the

basis for dialogue, priority setting and policy formulation on

climate change adaptation at the regional level.

Regional Initiative for the Assessment of the Impact of

Climate Change on Water Resources and

Socio-Economic Vulnerability in the Arab Region

(RICCAR)

Objective

Implementing Partners

RICCAR Partnerships

LAS

Donors Research Institutes supporting Climate Ensemble

• Center of Excellence for Climate Change Research/

King Abdulaziz University (CECCR/KAU) - KSA

• King Abdullah University of Science and Technology

(KAUST ) - KSA

• Climate Services Center (CSC) - Germany

Cairo Office

RICCAR Implementation Framework: Four Pillars

Climate Change

Impact Assessment

Climate Change

Vulnerability Assessment

Awareness Raising & Information Dissemination

Baseline Review & Knowledge Management

Capacity Building & Institutional Strengthening

for Water Ministries, Meteorological Offices, Arab Research Centers

Climate Change

modeling

Hydrological modeling

and water resources

management

- Impacts on water

resources

- Long term scenario

development in water

policies

Climate

database

Models (GCM

and RCM)

Integrated model-based approach for impact and

vulnerability assessments

Socio-economic

vulnerability and impact

assessment

Agriculture

Food Security

Health

Industry

Poverty &

Employment

Biodiversity

Human

Settlement

Impact Assessment Component: Pursuing a Coordinated Ensemble for Climate & Hydrological Modeling

Different GCMs

for the Same RCP

GCMs at 300 km x 300 km

Ensemble

Average

used to

reduce

uncertainty

at level of

RCMs &

RHMs

Ensembles

compare

findings of

different

RCMs &

RHMs

applied for

same RCP

& Domain

Extr

em

e E

ve

nts

Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) New basis for Climate Modeling & IPCC Projections for AR5

Worst Case Scenario

Graph adapted from: Meinshausen et al.,2010

CORDEX

CORDEX

Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change:

Areas considered for regional averages in IPCC AR5

IPCC WG1 Assessment Report 5 - Annex I

DRAFT – 30 September 2013

Regional Climate Modeling over the Arab Domain

LAS

RIC

CA

R

RCM (Institute)

GCM Historic

al 1950-

2005

RCP2.6 2006-

2100

RCP4.5 2006-

2100

RCP8.5 2006-

2100

RCA4 (SMHI)

EC-Earth 50km

✔ ✔ ✔ ✔

RCA4 (SMHI)

EC-Earth 25km

✔ ✔

RCA4 (SMHI)

CNRM 50km

✔ ✔ ✔

RCA4 (SMHI)

GFDL-

ESM 50km

✔ ✔ ✔

RCA4 (SMHI)

GFDL-

ESM 25km

✔ ✔

na (Kaust)

GFDL-

ESM-1 25km

✔ ✔ ✔

na (Kaust)

GFDL-

ESM-2 25km

✔ ✔ ✔

Remo (CSC)

MPI-ESM 50km

✔ ✔ ✔

RegCM4 (Kau)

HadGEM2 50km

✔ ✔ ✔

RegCM4 (Kau)

MPI-ESM 50km

✔ ✔ ✔

RegCM4 (Kau)

GFDL-

ESM 50km

✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ Completed ✔ Running ✔ Planned

CORDEX-MENA/Arab Ensemble Matrix

CORDEX-MENA domain and sub-regions

• sub-regions for evaluation and analysis represent different

climatology in the CORDEX-MENA region (annual cycle etc.)

• more sub-regions can be defined on regional/local scales

Projected changes in temperature: RCP45

• similar patterns in both global and regional ensembles

• some differences on regional scale

global - GCMs and regional – RCA4(GCMs) ensembles

SUMMER

Projected changes in temperature: RCP85

global - GCMs and regional – RCA4(GCMs) ensembles

SUMMER

• larger warming from 2041 for RCP85 than for RCP45

• in coming decades both RCP45 and RCP85 are similar

Projected changes in precipitation: RCP45

• differences in global and regional ensembles

• precipitation has larger variability than temperature

global - GCMs and regional – RCA4(GCMs) ensembles

SUMMER 2006

Projected changes in precipitation: RCP85

• signal becomes stronger with stronger radiative forcing in both

global and regional ensembles but some differences

• local-scale process are more important for precipitation than for

temperature (soil moisture – atmospheric feedback etc.)

global - GCMs and regional – RCA4(GCMs) ensembles

SUMMER

Projected changes in Wind Extremes

• an increase in wind extremes in south-west of the Arab Peninsula

• wind extremes have large variability

• more simulations are necessary (different RCMs/GCMs pairs)

• 20-yr return values: an event which occurs once in 20 years

• based on the Generalized Extreme Value Distribution

Maximum length of dry spell (days)

Hydrological Modeling

RCM generates:

• Temperature

(max, min, mean)

• Precipitation

• Evaporation rate

• Humidity level

• Atmospheric

pressure

A- Hydrological Modeling

B- Water Management

Hydro Models can

better generate:

• Stream runoff

• Soil moisture

• Groundwater

recharge

• Groundwater

level

Water Models

could then assess:

• Water Level

• Water Demand

• Consumption

by sector

• Water balance

• Reservoir level

LAS

RIC

CA

R

Hydrological Modelling

Runoff - future

Season runoff in mm/season Hype Model

Change

Vulnerability Assessment

Vulnerability Assessment Framework

Exposure Sensitivity

Impact Adaptive

Capacity

Vulnerability

IPCC-oriented definition of vulnerability

25

Vulnerability Assessment Impact Chain for Water

Availability

Source: Kerstin Fritzsche, adelphi advisor to VA-WG,

RICCAR EGM-5, 12 December 2013

26

Vulnerability Assessment Impact Chain for Water

Availability

Source: Kerstin Fritzsche, adelphi advisor to VA-WG,

RICCAR EGM-5, 12 December 2013

Precipitation

Runoff

Temperature

Soil moisture

etc.

Vegetation cover

Change in landuse

LULC

Crop sensitivity

Soil erosion rate

Water–erosion

susceptibility

Linking CC to Land degradation

Land degradation Models

Remote Sensing &

GIS analysis

Vulnerability mapping

e.g. Water-erosion

susceptibility and sensitivity

Linkage of climate and Hydrological Models to Land

Degradation Models

Climate Change

Future Scenario

Inputs

Outputs

Thank you!

Additional information on the

Regional Initiative for the Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change on

Water Resources and Socio-Economic Vulnerability in the Arab Region

(RICCAR)

available at:

www.escwa.un.org/RICCAR