day 2 expert judgment
TRANSCRIPT
Here are the ground rules
1. Be in class 5 minutes before start. If( Late) join without asking permission
2. Do not bring in cell phone/ laptops to sessions
3. Bring a plain A-4 size paper to class for assignments.
4. Do not accept any contradiction. Ask, argue, debate
5. Attempt all problems even if you are not sure
6. Do not give just non numeric rating at end of each session. Give frank feedback on what you liked and what you didnt
7. Apply what you learn daily
Expert Judgment estimates
An expert is :Qualified to answer questions
in the fieldRecognized by peersHas back ground on the subject
Expert Judgment applicable
When the following are not available1.Measurements2.Observations 3.Experimentation4.Simulation
Nuclear fused salt reactor risks
When the following happens1.You need to supplement existing data2.Data is
1. Sparse2. Questionable3.Indirectly applicable
3.Learn expert’s solving technique4.Determining Whats known, whats not
known ,whats worth knowing
Expert Judgment: Risk on a nuclear reactor and approximate damage
Reactor size, strength, fuel size, coolant, structure etc
Precise Inputs
Precise Output
Failure scenarios, Impact size, Likely death tolls, rebuilding costs, Prevention means+ costs
Typical timelines
http://www.amazon.com/Eliciting-Analyzing-Expert-Judgment-Probability/dp/0898714745
Process Semantics
Action Block
I
STARTING INPUT
TECHNIQUES AND TOOLS
MAIN OUTPUT
BYPRODUCTS& WASTE
FEEDBACK LOOP
Assignment on Expert judgment
1. Context : You are the President of US and have got confirmed intelligence on the hideout of Osama Bin Laden and have decided to authorize his capture/killing . The operation involves Transporting elite Navy seals, Air Operations to transport ammunitions and equipment , Land operations to neutralize the guards and defenses and recover evidences . Finally transport the seals and body of Osama to a Naval vessel and do the final rites .
2. Divide the team into 3 groups : Air , Navy , Land3. Each team solves the problem of finding the time and aggregate cost of the
operation .4. Allow each team to complete the plans and summarize the figures to team5. Compare the estimates and plannings with actual operation : http://
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Death_of_Osama_bin_Laden#Operation_Neptune_Spear