davor bajs goran majstrovic energy institute hrvoje pozar, zagreb, croatia trajce cerepnalkovski...

DDAVORAVOR BAJS BAJS GORAN MAJSTROVICGORAN MAJSTROVIC

ENERGENERGYY INSTITUT INSTITUTEE HRVOJE PO HRVOJE POZZAR, AR, Zagreb, CROATIAZagreb, CROATIA

TRAJCE CEREPNALKOVSKITRAJCE CEREPNALKOVSKINEOTEL, Skopje, MACEDONIANEOTEL, Skopje, MACEDONIA

10th Athens Forum, Athens, April 24-25, 200710th Athens Forum, Athens, April 24-25, 2007

TRANSMISSION NETWORK INVESTMENT CRITERIATRANSMISSION NETWORK INVESTMENT CRITERIA

CONTENTSCONTENTS

INTRODUCTIONINTRODUCTION

EXISTING PLANNING CRITERIAEXISTING PLANNING CRITERIA

NATIONAL GRID CODES AND DRAFT VERSION OF NATIONAL GRID CODES AND DRAFT VERSION OF REGIONAL GRID CODESREGIONAL GRID CODES

PREREQUISITES AND ASSUMPTIONSPREREQUISITES AND ASSUMPTIONS

TRANSMISSION NETWORK INVESTMENT CRITERIATRANSMISSION NETWORK INVESTMENT CRITERIA

METHODOLOGY FOR PROJECT PRIORITIZATIONMETHODOLOGY FOR PROJECT PRIORITIZATION

CONCLUSIONSCONCLUSIONS

10th Athens Forum, April 24-25, 2007 Transmission network investment criteria10th Athens Forum, April 24-25, 2007 Transmission network investment criteria

INTRODUCTIONINTRODUCTION

8th ATHENS FORUM8th ATHENS FORUM GIS and SECI TSP updatesGIS and SECI TSP updates transmission investment criteria on regional leveltransmission investment criteria on regional level list of priority projectslist of priority projects

TTHE STUDY SHOULD ANALYZEHE STUDY SHOULD ANALYZE:: the problem of transmission investment in an open market the problem of transmission investment in an open market

environment defining the most relevant uncertainties in SEE environment defining the most relevant uncertainties in SEE region, region,

review past experience on transmission network planning,review past experience on transmission network planning,

analyze transmission planning criteria which have been used by analyze transmission planning criteria which have been used by different TSO in the region, different TSO in the region,

review national grid codes and draft version of regional grid review national grid codes and draft version of regional grid code,code,

suggest transmission investment criteria from regional suggest transmission investment criteria from regional

prospective, prospective,

suggest methodology for project prioritizationsuggest methodology for project prioritization..


INTRODUCTION (cont.)INTRODUCTION (cont.)

TRANSMISSION PLANNING TRANSMISSION PLANNING UNDER NEW CIRCUMSTANCESUNDER NEW CIRCUMSTANCES

different target functionsdifferent target functions uncertaintiesuncertainties

MOSTLY USED PLANNING MOSTLY USED PLANNING CRITERIACRITERIA

n-1n-1 LOLPLOLP NPV>0NPV>0

REGIONAL PLANNINGREGIONAL PLANNING

P =600 MWmax

1 money unit/MW

600 MWA

B

1 2

3 4

P =500 MWmax

2 money unit/MW

300 MW

300 MW

100 MW 500 MW

2x200 MW

50 MW100 MW

250 MW

150 MW

P =600 MWmax

1,5 money unit/MW

400 MWA

B

1 2

3 4

P =500 MWmax

1 money unit/MW

500 MW

300 MW

100 MW 500 MW

2x180 MW

80 MW60 MW

320 MW

120 MW

Wrong investment because of the change in bidding behavior


EXISTING PLANNING CRITERIAEXISTING PLANNING CRITERIA

SEE TSOSEE TSOss - REGULATORY AGENCIES - REGULATORY AGENCIES

TRANSMISISON PLANS 1- 15 YEARS AHEADTRANSMISISON PLANS 1- 15 YEARS AHEAD

TRANSMISISON INVESTMENTS FINANCING - TRANSMISSION TRANSMISISON INVESTMENTS FINANCING - TRANSMISSION FEES AND LOANS. PRIVATE INVESTORS NOT ALLOWED !!!FEES AND LOANS. PRIVATE INVESTORS NOT ALLOWED !!!

TRANSMISSION PLANNING CRITERIA - NATIONAL GRID TRANSMISSION PLANNING CRITERIA - NATIONAL GRID CODESCODES

THE MAIN TECHNICAL CRITERION - (n-1) SECURITY THE MAIN TECHNICAL CRITERION - (n-1) SECURITY CRITERION. CRITERION.

(n-2) CRITERION (Montenegro and Romania)(n-2) CRITERION (Montenegro and Romania)

OTHER TECHNICAL CRITERIA - NOT USED (stability criteria OTHER TECHNICAL CRITERIA - NOT USED (stability criteria and compensation facilities installation criteria in Romania)and compensation facilities installation criteria in Romania)


EXISTING PLANNING CRITERIA (cont.)EXISTING PLANNING CRITERIA (cont.)

PROBABILITY OF (PROBABILITY OF (nn-1) EVENTS -1) EVENTS – NOT VALUATED– NOT VALUATED

LOAD FLOW, SECURITY ANALYSISLOAD FLOW, SECURITY ANALYSIS, , SHORT CIRCUITSHORT CIRCUIT

OPTIMAL POWER FLOWS (Bulgaria, Turkey, UNMIK)OPTIMAL POWER FLOWS (Bulgaria, Turkey, UNMIK), , STABILITY STABILITY ANALYSIS (B&H, Bulgaria, Macedonia, Romania, Turkey)ANALYSIS (B&H, Bulgaria, Macedonia, Romania, Turkey)

PROBABILISTIC ANALYSES PROBABILISTIC ANALYSES - - PERFORMED ONLY IN ROMANIAPERFORMED ONLY IN ROMANIA

ECONOMIC CRITERIA (Albania, B&H, Croatia, Macedonia, Romania, ECONOMIC CRITERIA (Albania, B&H, Croatia, Macedonia, Romania, SerbiaSerbia&UNMIK&UNMIK) )

PROFITABILITY INDEXPROFITABILITY INDEX – MOSTLY USED ECONOMIC CRITERION – MOSTLY USED ECONOMIC CRITERION

TYPES OF BENEFIT:TYPES OF BENEFIT: reduction of the cost of losses,reduction of the cost of losses, reduction of loss of load costs, reduction of loss of load costs, reduction of re-dispatching costs, reduction of re-dispatching costs, reduction of congestion costsreduction of congestion costs,, benefit from telecommunication linesbenefit from telecommunication lines


EXISTING PLANNING CRITERIA (cont.)EXISTING PLANNING CRITERIA (cont.)

UNDELIVERED ELECTRICITY UNDELIVERED ELECTRICITY COSTS - LOWER THAN 3 €/kWhCOSTS - LOWER THAN 3 €/kWh

ADDITIONAL PLANNING ADDITIONAL PLANNING CRITERIA FOR CRITERIA FOR INTERCONNECTION LINES:INTERCONNECTION LINES:

mostly not appliedmostly not applied based on system operational costs based on system operational costs

(Macedonia) (Macedonia) based on the difference between based on the difference between

energy prices (Serbia)energy prices (Serbia)

UNCERTAINTIES (multi-UNCERTAINTIES (multi-scenario analysis)scenario analysis)

new power plants size and locationnew power plants size and location generators engagementgenerators engagement hydrological conditionshydrological conditions market transactionsmarket transactions country power balancecountry power balance

NO RISK ASSESSMENTSNO RISK ASSESSMENTS


GRID CODESGRID CODES

GRID CODES PRESCRIBE:GRID CODES PRESCRIBE: TSOs obligations related to transmission system planning reports and TSOs obligations related to transmission system planning reports and

studiesstudies the role of the transmission systems (reliable and secure system the role of the transmission systems (reliable and secure system

operation and continuous load supply)operation and continuous load supply) planning criteriaplanning criteria input datainput data

REGIONAL ASPECTS ARE NOT MENTIONED IN NATIONAL GRID REGIONAL ASPECTS ARE NOT MENTIONED IN NATIONAL GRID CODESCODES

THE USAGE OF (THE USAGE OF (nn-1) CRITERION -1) CRITERION (explanation of that criterion is very similar between countries and not (explanation of that criterion is very similar between countries and not permitted consequences of single outages are pretty much the same)permitted consequences of single outages are pretty much the same)

OTHER TECHNICAL CRITERIA LIKE SHORT-CIRCUIT OR STABILITY OTHER TECHNICAL CRITERIA LIKE SHORT-CIRCUIT OR STABILITY CRITERIA ARE PRESCRIBED SOMEWHERE. CRITERIA ARE PRESCRIBED SOMEWHERE.

TRANSMISSION INVESTMENTS ECONOMIC RATIONALIZATION - TRANSMISSION INVESTMENTS ECONOMIC RATIONALIZATION - NOT MENTIONED IN NATIONAL GRID CODES NOT MENTIONED IN NATIONAL GRID CODES (except in general term in Bosnian and Romanian grid codes)(except in general term in Bosnian and Romanian grid codes)


GRID CODES (cont.)GRID CODES (cont.)

PROBABILISTIC TECHNICAL CRITERIA FOR TRANSMISSION SYSTEM PROBABILISTIC TECHNICAL CRITERIA FOR TRANSMISSION SYSTEM PLANNING - only in Romanian and Turkish grid codes (loss of load PLANNING - only in Romanian and Turkish grid codes (loss of load probability)probability)

NO GREAT DISPROPORTIONS BETWEEN NATIONAL GRID CODES NO GREAT DISPROPORTIONS BETWEEN NATIONAL GRID CODES AND REGIONAL GRID CODEAND REGIONAL GRID CODE

DRAFT VERSION OF REGIONAL GRID CODE - CREATION OF DRAFT VERSION OF REGIONAL GRID CODE - CREATION OF WORKING GROUP WORKING GROUP (plan the network on regional level, especially directing attention on (plan the network on regional level, especially directing attention on interconnection lines and those internal lines that have great impact on interconnection lines and those internal lines that have great impact on transfer capacities between different countries)transfer capacities between different countries)

MARKET ISSUES IN TRANSMISSION PLANNING ARE NOT MARKET ISSUES IN TRANSMISSION PLANNING ARE NOT SATISFACTORY TREATEDSATISFACTORY TREATED

planning uncertaintiesplanning uncertainties economic considerations of transmission investmentseconomic considerations of transmission investments balance between security and costsbalance between security and costs promotion of the private financingpromotion of the private financing congestion costscongestion costs


PREREQUISITES AND ASSUMPTIONSPREREQUISITES AND ASSUMPTIONS UUNIFIED REGIONAL ELECTRICITY MARKETNIFIED REGIONAL ELECTRICITY MARKET

UNIQUE NETWORKUNIQUE NETWORK

PROMOTIONPROMOTION OF THEOF THE MARKET ACTIVITIES MARKET ACTIVITIES

IDENTIFICATION AND PRIORITIZATION OF THEIDENTIFICATION AND PRIORITIZATION OF THE TRANSMISSION TRANSMISSION INVESTMENT CANDIDATES FROM REGIONAL POINT OF VIEWINVESTMENT CANDIDATES FROM REGIONAL POINT OF VIEW

STABLE REGULATORY FRAMEWORK STABLE REGULATORY FRAMEWORK

CO-ORDINATION BETWEEN SEE TSOs CO-ORDINATION BETWEEN SEE TSOs ((technical standards, technical standards, balancing rules and congestion management mechanismsbalancing rules and congestion management mechanisms))

ELECTRICITY MARKET ORGANIZED THROUGH POOL AND ELECTRICITY MARKET ORGANIZED THROUGH POOL AND BILATERAL CONTRACTSBILATERAL CONTRACTS

PRODUCTION COMPANIES WILL GIVE THEIR BIDS TO THE POOL PRODUCTION COMPANIES WILL GIVE THEIR BIDS TO THE POOL AT REGIONAL LEVELAT REGIONAL LEVEL


PREREQUISITES AND ASSUMPTIONSPREREQUISITES AND ASSUMPTIONS (cont.) (cont.)

ELECTRICITY PRICE ELECTRICITY PRICE -- market oriented across the market oriented across the region and not significantly dependent on the region and not significantly dependent on the location in the SEE gridlocation in the SEE grid

THE MOST IMPORTANT UNCERTAINTIES:THE MOST IMPORTANT UNCERTAINTIES: new power plants size and locationsnew power plants size and locations hydrological conditionshydrological conditions generators bidsgenerators bids branches and generators availabilitybranches and generators availability load predictionload prediction regional power balanceregional power balance

THE PROBLEM OF INVESTMENTS FINANCINGTHE PROBLEM OF INVESTMENTS FINANCING

TTHE TREATMENT OF INTERCONNECTION LINES AND HE TREATMENT OF INTERCONNECTION LINES AND INTERNAL NATIONAL LINES HAVE TO BE THE SAMEINTERNAL NATIONAL LINES HAVE TO BE THE SAME


TRANSMISSION NETWORK INVESTMENT TRANSMISSION NETWORK INVESTMENT

CRITERIACRITERIA

2 SET OF CRITERIA:2 SET OF CRITERIA: technicaltechnical economiceconomic

TECHNICAL CRITERIA:TECHNICAL CRITERIA: (n-1) criterion(n-1) criterion vvoltage and reactive power criterionoltage and reactive power criterion sshort-circuit criterionhort-circuit criterion sstability criteriontability criterion

ECONOMICECONOMIC CRITERI CRITERION - PROFITABILITY INDEX (cost/benefit ON - PROFITABILITY INDEX (cost/benefit ratio)ratio)


TRANSMISSION NETWORK INVESTMENTTRANSMISSION NETWORK INVESTMENT CRITERIACRITERIA (cont.)(cont.)

Planning time-frame

Topology Analyzed operating conditions

Technical criteria satisfaction

Permitted corrective actions

Short All branches and generators available (n)

SEE peak loadSEE minimum load(1-3 years horizon)

Ilines < Imax lines*

Umin < Unode < Umax

Stability criteriaShort-circuit criteria

- automatic transformers regulation- switching of compensation devices

- network sectioning

One branch (line, transformer) or generator or compensation device unavailable (n-1)

SEE peak load(1-3 years horizon)

Ilines < Imax lines**

Umin < Unode < Umax

- generators re-dispatching***

- automatic and manual transformers regulation- switching of compensation devices


Mid All branches and generators available (n)

SEE peak loadSEE minimum load

(5 years horizon)


Umin < Unode < Umax

Stability criteriaShort-circuit criteria




SEE peak load(5 years horizon)


Umin < Unode < Umax




Long All branches and generators available (n)

SEE peak loadSEE minimum load(10 years horizon)


Umin < Unode < Umax




SEE peak load(10 years horizon)


Umin < Unode < Umax





TRANSMISSION NETWORK INVESTMENT TRANSMISSION NETWORK INVESTMENT CRITERIACRITERIA (cont.) (cont.)

TYPES OF BENEFIT:TYPES OF BENEFIT: benefit due to reduction of expected annual benefit due to reduction of expected annual

undelivered electricity costsundelivered electricity costs benefit due to annual losses reductionbenefit due to annual losses reduction benefit due to reduction of annual re-benefit due to reduction of annual re-

dispatching costsdispatching costs benefit due to annual congestion costs reductionbenefit due to annual congestion costs reduction

TYPES OF COSTSTYPES OF COSTS:: investment costsinvestment costs operation and maintenance costsoperation and maintenance costs

i

ii EC

EBPI

PIi > 1

N

i

d

IdEC

)1(

11

02,1


METHODOLOGY FOR METHODOLOGY FOR PROJECT PRIORITIZATIONPROJECT PRIORITIZATION


Input data collection.Planning scenarios definition.

Planning scenario 1

Models 1

Identification of possible network

limitations

Reviewed list of candidate projects

Probabilistic analyses (profitability indexes

calculations)

List of candidate projects


Prioritization of the candidate projects

Determination of the final network topology

Short-circuit analysis

Stability analysis

Technical analyses (load flows, n-1

security)


security)

Planning scenario N

Models N

Identification of possible network

limitations


Probabilistic analyses (profitability indexes

calculations)


security)


security)

...

...

LIST OF CANDIDATE PROJECTSLIST OF CANDIDATE PROJECTS

TECHNICAL ANALYSISTECHNICAL ANALYSIS

REVIEWED LIST OF CANDIDATE REVIEWED LIST OF CANDIDATE PROJECTSPROJECTS

ECONOMIC ANALYSISECONOMIC ANALYSIS

PRIORATIZATION:PRIORATIZATION: technicaltechnical economiceconomic

METHODOLOGY FOR PROJECT PRIORITIZATIONMETHODOLOGY FOR PROJECT PRIORITIZATION (cont.)(cont.)

CANDIDATE PROJECTS ARE TECHNICALLY PRIORITIZED CANDIDATE PROJECTS ARE TECHNICALLY PRIORITIZED ACCORDING TO NETWORK CONSTRAINTS THAT ARE ACCORDING TO NETWORK CONSTRAINTS THAT ARE REMOVED BY CANDIDATE PROJECTS: REMOVED BY CANDIDATE PROJECTS:

first importance groupfirst importance group:: candidate projects that remove candidate projects that remove network constraints with (n) available branchesnetwork constraints with (n) available branches

second importance groupsecond importance group: candidate : candidate projects that remove projects that remove network constraints with (n-1) available branchesnetwork constraints with (n-1) available branches

FURTHER TECHNICAL PRIORITIZATION IS MADE ACCORDING FURTHER TECHNICAL PRIORITIZATION IS MADE ACCORDING TO:TO:

the number of planning scenarios in which candidate project the number of planning scenarios in which candidate project removes network constraintsremoves network constraints

voltage level of overloaded transmission linesvoltage level of overloaded transmission lines the number of network constraints that are removed by a the number of network constraints that are removed by a

candidate projectcandidate project

EVALUATION AND PRIORITIZATION OF CANDIDATE EVALUATION AND PRIORITIZATION OF CANDIDATE PROJECTS ACCORDING TO THE ECONOMIC CRITERIA IS PROJECTS ACCORDING TO THE ECONOMIC CRITERIA IS BASED ON THE MAXIMUM AVERAGEBASED ON THE MAXIMUM AVERAGE PROFITABILITY PROFITABILITY INDEXESINDEXES


CONCLUSIONSCONCLUSIONS

PLANNING CRITERIA USED BY SEE TSOPLANNING CRITERIA USED BY SEE TSOss TODAY ARE GENERALLY SIMILAR TODAY ARE GENERALLY SIMILAR AND MAINLY CONCENTRATED AROUND (N-1) SECURITY CRITERIONAND MAINLY CONCENTRATED AROUND (N-1) SECURITY CRITERION

MARKET ORIENTED TRANSMISSION INVESTMENTS AND INVESTMENTS MARKET ORIENTED TRANSMISSION INVESTMENTS AND INVESTMENTS FROM REGIONAL PERSPECTIVE ARE NOT MENTIONED AND SATISFACTORY FROM REGIONAL PERSPECTIVE ARE NOT MENTIONED AND SATISFACTORY TREATED IN NATIONAL GRID CODESTREATED IN NATIONAL GRID CODES

NATIONAL TRANSMISSION NETWORKS ARE MAINLY PLANNED ACCORDING NATIONAL TRANSMISSION NETWORKS ARE MAINLY PLANNED ACCORDING TO TECHNICAL CONSIDERATIONS AND ECONOMIC RATIONALIZATION OF TO TECHNICAL CONSIDERATIONS AND ECONOMIC RATIONALIZATION OF NEW INVESTMENTS GENERALLY REMAINS OUT OF INTERESTNEW INVESTMENTS GENERALLY REMAINS OUT OF INTEREST

METHODS USED BY TRANSMISSION PLANNERS ARE BASED ON METHODS USED BY TRANSMISSION PLANNERS ARE BASED ON DETERMINISTIC APPROACH, WHILE PROBABILITIES OF DIFFERENT EVENTS DETERMINISTIC APPROACH, WHILE PROBABILITIES OF DIFFERENT EVENTS ARE NOT TREATED SATISFACTORY WHICH DOESN’T ALLOW BETTER ARE NOT TREATED SATISFACTORY WHICH DOESN’T ALLOW BETTER ECONOMICAL CONSIDERATIONS OF NETWORK DEVELOPMENT AND ECONOMICAL CONSIDERATIONS OF NETWORK DEVELOPMENT AND INCLUSION OF ECONOMIC CRITERIA INTO DECISION MAKING PROCESSINCLUSION OF ECONOMIC CRITERIA INTO DECISION MAKING PROCESS

SEE TRANSMISSION SYSTEM PLANNING PROCESS HAS TO INCLUDE SEE TRANSMISSION SYSTEM PLANNING PROCESS HAS TO INCLUDE DIFFERENT UNCERTAINTIES WHICH WILL OCCUR IN AN OPEN ELECTRICITY DIFFERENT UNCERTAINTIES WHICH WILL OCCUR IN AN OPEN ELECTRICITY MARKET ENVIRONMENTMARKET ENVIRONMENT


CONCLUSIONS (cont.)CONCLUSIONS (cont.)

TRANSMISSION DEVELOPMENT IN SEE MAY BE MORE EFFECTIVE AND TRANSMISSION DEVELOPMENT IN SEE MAY BE MORE EFFECTIVE AND FASTER IF FOLLOWING REQUESTS ARE TO BE FULFILLED:FASTER IF FOLLOWING REQUESTS ARE TO BE FULFILLED:

full independency of Transmission System Operators from production and supply full independency of Transmission System Operators from production and supply companiescompanies

acceleration of national authorization procedures for transmission facilities acceleration of national authorization procedures for transmission facilities constructionconstruction

effective market design and stable regulatory frameworkeffective market design and stable regulatory framework introduction of market oriented signals for transmission investmentsintroduction of market oriented signals for transmission investments attraction of private investments into transmission developmentattraction of private investments into transmission development coordination and full cooperation between SEE TSO’s in planning issues andcoordination and full cooperation between SEE TSO’s in planning issues and establishment of stable financing mechanism that will support regionally establishment of stable financing mechanism that will support regionally

important projectsimportant projects

OFFICIAL REGIONAL TRANSMISSION PLANNING GROUPOFFICIAL REGIONAL TRANSMISSION PLANNING GROUP SEE transmission system issuesSEE transmission system issues collectcollection of ion of planning dataplanning data planning scenariosplanning scenarios common network models common network models preparationpreparation (load flow, dynamic, short-circuit, (load flow, dynamic, short-circuit,

probabilistic models)probabilistic models) analysesanalyses comparison of candidate projects and defined criteriacomparison of candidate projects and defined criteria prioritizprioritizationation of of the investmentsthe investments preparation ofpreparation of reports concerning SEE transmission system future bottlenecks reports concerning SEE transmission system future bottlenecks congestion predictions and development suggestionscongestion predictions and development suggestions


THANK FOR YOUR ATTENTIONTHANK FOR YOUR ATTENTION

DAVOR BAJSDAVOR BAJS

ENERGY INSTITUTE HRVOJE POZARENERGY INSTITUTE HRVOJE POZAR

ZAGREB, CROATIAZAGREB, CROATIA

[email protected]@eihp.hr


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