dave magua tee expectation survey " —""....tot pricing 1,,d„„ _ ; ems le the...

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Dave Magua tee Expectation Survey " —"" ....tot Pricing 1,,d„„ _ ;ems le the Sarne, it Jest Costs Lee Months Loan . . . t o paymcni Amnon Rat.wail 70% Say Time to Buy is Now National Hotalno Sonny' 70% of respondents think it is a good We to buy a house. And of those 36% think it is a very good pr.' time to buy.di! 79 79 71 70 Beak Of America Pricing Forecast

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Jan NAR eb 3/2012 Pending Home Sales Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb NAR 3/

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Page 1: Dave Magua tee Expectation Survey " —""....tot Pricing 1,,d„„ _ ; ems le the Sarne, it Jest Costs Lee Months Loan...to paymcni Amnon Rat. wail 70% Say

Dave Magua

tee Expectation Survey

" —"" . ...tot Pricing 1,,d„„ _

;ems

le the Sarne, it Jest Costs Lee

Months Loan . . . t o paymcni

Amnon Rat. wail

70% Say Time to Buy is Now National Hotalno Sonny' 70% of respondents think it is a good We to buy a house. And of those 36% think it is a very good pr.' time to buy. di!

79 79 71 70

Beak Of America Pricing Forecast

Page 2: Dave Magua tee Expectation Survey " —""....tot Pricing 1,,d„„ _ ; ems le the Sarne, it Jest Costs Lee Months Loan...to paymcni Amnon Rat. wail 70% Say

Existing Home Sales

12,575 Homes Sell Every Day and 8,300 Buyers Receive a Mortgage

NAR 3/2012

Page 3: Dave Magua tee Expectation Survey " —""....tot Pricing 1,,d„„ _ ; ems le the Sarne, it Jest Costs Lee Months Loan...to paymcni Amnon Rat. wail 70% Say

Jan NAR eb 3/2012

Pending Home Sales

Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb

NAR 3/2012

70.0

80.0

90.0

100.0

110.0

Page 4: Dave Magua tee Expectation Survey " —""....tot Pricing 1,,d„„ _ ; ems le the Sarne, it Jest Costs Lee Months Loan...to paymcni Amnon Rat. wail 70% Say

S&P Case Shiller 3/2012

S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices

Page 5: Dave Magua tee Expectation Survey " —""....tot Pricing 1,,d„„ _ ; ems le the Sarne, it Jest Costs Lee Months Loan...to paymcni Amnon Rat. wail 70% Say

Federal Reserve

Mortgage Rates – 30 Year Fixed

1/01/2011 Today 3.75%

5.25%

4.75%

4.00%

Page 6: Dave Magua tee Expectation Survey " —""....tot Pricing 1,,d„„ _ ; ems le the Sarne, it Jest Costs Lee Months Loan...to paymcni Amnon Rat. wail 70% Say

Case Shiller Pricing Index

2000 Jan 2003 TODAY

225.00

175.00

100.00

150.00

Page 7: Dave Magua tee Expectation Survey " —""....tot Pricing 1,,d„„ _ ; ems le the Sarne, it Jest Costs Lee Months Loan...to paymcni Amnon Rat. wail 70% Say

Forbes 03/23/2012

Rent vs. Buy Best to Rent

2% “Certainly prices have continued to fall nationally, but rents have been rising so this would be the lowest price-to-rent ratio that we’ve seen.” Best to Buy

98% Jed Kolko, Trulia Chief Economist

Page 8: Dave Magua tee Expectation Survey " —""....tot Pricing 1,,d„„ _ ; ems le the Sarne, it Jest Costs Lee Months Loan...to paymcni Amnon Rat. wail 70% Say

Marcus & Millichap 1/26/2012

Rents Rising Rapidly

* projected

National Average Rent

$1,000

$1200

$1100

Page 9: Dave Magua tee Expectation Survey " —""....tot Pricing 1,,d„„ _ ; ems le the Sarne, it Jest Costs Lee Months Loan...to paymcni Amnon Rat. wail 70% Say

HousingWire 3/16/2012

Rents Rising Rapidly

“Vacancies in the home-rental

market will push average rental

rates up as much as 5%

by early 2013.”

Page 10: Dave Magua tee Expectation Survey " —""....tot Pricing 1,,d„„ _ ; ems le the Sarne, it Jest Costs Lee Months Loan...to paymcni Amnon Rat. wail 70% Say

HOUSING ON THE REBOUND “If activity is sustained near present levels, existing-home sales will see their best performance in five years. Based on all of the factors in the current market, that’s what we’re expecting with sales rising 7 to 10 percent in 2012.”

Lawrence Yun NAR Chief Economist

NAR 03/2012

Page 11: Dave Magua tee Expectation Survey " —""....tot Pricing 1,,d„„ _ ; ems le the Sarne, it Jest Costs Lee Months Loan...to paymcni Amnon Rat. wail 70% Say

Housing on the Rebound B. of A. Merrill calls housing bottom this year ·Bank of America Merrill Lynch says housing prices

will begin rising this year ·Inventories have fallen and policy moves have

helped stoke demand for homes, according to the firm

·Firm's long-term view unchanged, but now says housing recovery will

start earlier, be more gradual

MarketWatch 03/22/2012

Page 12: Dave Magua tee Expectation Survey " —""....tot Pricing 1,,d„„ _ ; ems le the Sarne, it Jest Costs Lee Months Loan...to paymcni Amnon Rat. wail 70% Say

Housing on the Rebound “ Stabilization in U.S. housing fundamentals is

creating an attractive investment opportunity. Many of the ingredients are in place for continued improvement in housing. ”

- Goldman Sachs Group

BusinessWeek 3/29/2012

Page 13: Dave Magua tee Expectation Survey " —""....tot Pricing 1,,d„„ _ ; ems le the Sarne, it Jest Costs Lee Months Loan...to paymcni Amnon Rat. wail 70% Say

Housing on the Rebound

We see stabilizing and then gradually increasing prices “

Pro Teck Valuation Services

Pro Teck 03/29/2012

Page 14: Dave Magua tee Expectation Survey " —""....tot Pricing 1,,d„„ _ ; ems le the Sarne, it Jest Costs Lee Months Loan...to paymcni Amnon Rat. wail 70% Say

Housing on the Rebound "I believe we ’re very close to the inflection point.

People look at prices that are still coming down but all the other signs are flashing green . . .Homes for sale are about half what they were four years ago.

You could come up with a pretty bullish case."

Jamie Dimon, Morgan Chase CEO

CNBC 03/28/2012

Page 15: Dave Magua tee Expectation Survey " —""....tot Pricing 1,,d„„ _ ; ems le the Sarne, it Jest Costs Lee Months Loan...to paymcni Amnon Rat. wail 70% Say

Housing on the Rebound

“ Even the housing market is showing some signs of shaking off the depression-

like conditions that have plagued it for much of the past few years. ”

- Frank Nothaft Freddie Mac Chief Economist

Freddie Mac 03/28/2012

Page 16: Dave Magua tee Expectation Survey " —""....tot Pricing 1,,d„„ _ ; ems le the Sarne, it Jest Costs Lee Months Loan...to paymcni Amnon Rat. wail 70% Say

March 19th Cover

BARRON’S Magazine

Page 17: Dave Magua tee Expectation Survey " —""....tot Pricing 1,,d„„ _ ; ems le the Sarne, it Jest Costs Lee Months Loan...to paymcni Amnon Rat. wail 70% Say

NAR, Wall Street Journal 03/29/2012

Investment and Vacation Homes

“Sales of investmentand vacation homessurged last year, thelatest evidence thatinvestors and higher income households aretaking advantage of lowhome prices to scoopup bargains.”

Page 18: Dave Magua tee Expectation Survey " —""....tot Pricing 1,,d„„ _ ; ems le the Sarne, it Jest Costs Lee Months Loan...to paymcni Amnon Rat. wail 70% Say

DSNews 03/26/2012

More Investors Buying Short Sales

September 2011 February 2012

Page 19: Dave Magua tee Expectation Survey " —""....tot Pricing 1,,d„„ _ ; ems le the Sarne, it Jest Costs Lee Months Loan...to paymcni Amnon Rat. wail 70% Say

HousingWire 3/2012

Short Sales Surging

2008

2009 2010

2011

2012

Page 20: Dave Magua tee Expectation Survey " —""....tot Pricing 1,,d„„ _ ; ems le the Sarne, it Jest Costs Lee Months Loan...to paymcni Amnon Rat. wail 70% Say

Supply & Demand Lowest supply in 5 Years

Demand Is Steady

Page 21: Dave Magua tee Expectation Survey " —""....tot Pricing 1,,d„„ _ ; ems le the Sarne, it Jest Costs Lee Months Loan...to paymcni Amnon Rat. wail 70% Say

NAR

Month’s Inventory of Homes for Sale

Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb

10 Months

9 Months

6 Months

4 Months

Page 22: Dave Magua tee Expectation Survey " —""....tot Pricing 1,,d„„ _ ; ems le the Sarne, it Jest Costs Lee Months Loan...to paymcni Amnon Rat. wail 70% Say

OCC Mortgage Metrics Report 3/2012

4Q 2009 1Q 2010 2Q 2010 3Q 2010 4Q 2010 1Q 2011 2Q 2011 3Q 2011 4Q 2011

132,625

157,733

168,256

186,854 HIGH

LOW 95,067

116,060

Completed Foreclosures

Page 23: Dave Magua tee Expectation Survey " —""....tot Pricing 1,,d„„ _ ; ems le the Sarne, it Jest Costs Lee Months Loan...to paymcni Amnon Rat. wail 70% Say

1Q 201 2Q 2011 3Q 2011 4Q 2011 OCC and OTS Mortgage Metrics Report 3/2012

Foreclosures in Process 1,350,000

1,200,000

1,000,000

4Q 2009 1Q 2010 2Q 2010 3Q 2010 4Q 2010 1Q 2011 2Q 2011 3Q 2011 4Q 2011

1st Q 2012 Will Increase

Page 24: Dave Magua tee Expectation Survey " —""....tot Pricing 1,,d„„ _ ; ems le the Sarne, it Jest Costs Lee Months Loan...to paymcni Amnon Rat. wail 70% Say

Shadow Inventory Resolved in 2012

Foreclosure Sales 900K – 1M

Short Sales 500K

Principal Reductions 500K

HAMP Modifications 360K

Other Modifications 270K

REO-to-Rental Program 100,000

Housing Wire

Page 25: Dave Magua tee Expectation Survey " —""....tot Pricing 1,,d„„ _ ; ems le the Sarne, it Jest Costs Lee Months Loan...to paymcni Amnon Rat. wail 70% Say

NAR

Percentage of Distressed Property Sales

Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb

0 %

20%

40%

Page 26: Dave Magua tee Expectation Survey " —""....tot Pricing 1,,d„„ _ ; ems le the Sarne, it Jest Costs Lee Months Loan...to paymcni Amnon Rat. wail 70% Say

NAR

Percentage of Contract Failures 35%

20%

5%

Aug 2010 July 2011 Sept 2011 Oct 2011 Nov 2011 Dec 2011 Jan 2012 Feb 2012

“Contract failures – cancellations caused largely by declined mortgage applications or failures in loan underwriting from appraised values coming in below the negotiated price.”

31%33%

9%

Page 27: Dave Magua tee Expectation Survey " —""....tot Pricing 1,,d„„ _ ; ems le the Sarne, it Jest Costs Lee Months Loan...to paymcni Amnon Rat. wail 70% Say

Home Price Expectations Survey 3/2012

4

Future Home Prices Average 3% Per Year

2012

0

3

2

- .72 1

Page 28: Dave Magua tee Expectation Survey " —""....tot Pricing 1,,d„„ _ ; ems le the Sarne, it Jest Costs Lee Months Loan...to paymcni Amnon Rat. wail 70% Say

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