DAV 10th South China Sea International Conference

Intelligence, Reconnaissance and Surveillance in the South China Sea

Collin KohRSIS Maritime Security Programme

9 November 2018Da Nang, Vietnam

Date Commissioned Type Full-load Displacement (tons) Ship Name Home Fleet Asset Category

Early January 2016 Icebreaker 4860 Haibing 722 NSF BluewaterJanuary 5, 2016 Guided missile frigate 4200 Jingzhou ESF BluewaterJanuary 12, 2016 Landing ship, tank 5000 Tianmushan ESF BluewaterJanuary 25, 2016 Minehunter 600 Rongcheng NSF LittoralJanuary 29, 2016 Fleet replenishment ship 23000 Gaoyouhu ESF BluewaterLate January 2016 Missile corvette 1300 Jingmen SSF LittoralFebruary 1, 2016 Landing platform, dock 18500 Yimengshan ESF BluewaterFebruary 2, 2016 Oceanographic research ship 6000 Deng Jiaxian ESF BluewaterFebruary 20, 2016 Missile corvette 1300 Tongren SSF LittoralFebruary 24, 2016 Guidedmissile frigate 4200 Xiangtan ESF BluewaterMarch 7, 2016 Landing ship, tank 5000 Wuyishan ESF BluewaterMarch 7, 2016 Landing ship, tank 5000 Culaishan ESF BluewaterMarch 7, 2016 Landing ship, tank 5000 Wutaishan ESF BluewaterMarch 17, 2016 Icebreaker 4860 Haibing 723 NSF BluewaterJune 8, 2016 Missile corvette 1300 Qujing SSF LittoralJuly 12, 2016 Guidedmissile destroyer 7500 Yinchuan SSF BluewaterJuly 15, 2016 Fleet replenishment ship 23000 Honghu SSF BluewaterJuly 15, 2016 Fleet replenishment ship 23000 Luomahu SSF BluewaterJuly 25, 2016 Oceanographic research ship 6000 Qian Weichang NSF BluewaterAugust 11, 2016 Missile corvette 1300 Huai’an ESF LittoralDecember 12, 2016 Missile corvette 1300 Baoding ESF LittoralDecember 12, 2016 Missile corvette 1300 Heze ESF LittoralDecember 29, 2016 Minehunter 600 Donggang NSF LittoralDecember 29, 2016 Guidedmissile frigate 4200 Binzhou ESF BluewaterJanuary 10, 2017 Intelligence collection ship 6000 Kaiyangxing NSF BluewaterJanuary 18, 2017 Missile corvette 1300 Ezhou ESF LittoralJanuary 22, 2017 Guidedmissile destroyer 7500 Xining NSF BluewaterJanuary 23, 2017 Survey ship 2000 Dongbiao 265 ESF LittoralFebruary 21, 2017 Training ship 9000 Qi Jiguang NSF BluewaterMarch 31, 2017 Missile corvette 1300 Liupanshui SSF LittoralApril 26, 2017 Aircraft carrier (launch) 60000 ? (Type-001A) NIL BluewaterJune 2017 Survey ship 2000 Nanbiao 467 SSF LittoralJune 10, 2017 Guidedmissile destroyer 7500 Xiamen ESF BluewaterJune 23, 2017 Guidedmissile frigate 4200 Xuchang SSF BluewaterJune 28, 2017 Guidedmissile destroyer (launch) 12500 ? (Type-055) NIL BluewaterJune 29, 2017 Guidedmissile frigate 4200 Wuhu NSF BluewaterJuly 11, 2017 Missile corvette 1300 Hanzhong SSF LittoralJuly 20, 2017 Fleet tug 6000 Beituo 739 NSF BluewaterJuly 21, 2017 Missile corvette 1300 Yiwu ESF LittoralSeptember 1, 2017 Fleet replenishment ship 48000 Hulunhu SSF BluewaterSeptember 25, 2017 Missile corvette 1300 Xuancheng ESF LittoralOctober 16, 2017 Missile corvette 1300 Yichun SSF LittoralNovember 15, 2017 Missile corvette 1300 Guangyuan SSF LittoralNovember 28, 2017 Missile corvette 1300 Suining SSF Littoral

Country Land Area(sq. km)

Maritime Zones(sq. km)

Maritime/Land Area Ratio

Total No. of Ships1

Total No. of Planes2

Brunei Darussalam

5,765 24,352 4.2 20 1

Cambodia 181,041 55,564 0.3 14 0

Indonesia 1,904,342 5,409,981 2.8 254 32

Malaysia 332,649 475,727 1.4 308 3

The Philippines 300,000 1,891,247 6.3 147 9

Singapore 588 343 0.6 130 5

Thailand 414,001 324,812 0.6 197 3

Vietnam 332,556 722,337 2.2 140 9

Source: By author compiling various materials including The Military Balance 2018, International Institute of Strategic Studies. Notes: 1. Surface combat and patrol vessels only; includes civilian agencies; 2. Fixed-winged maritime patrol aircraft only; includes civilian agencies

Persistent Resource Capacity Shortfalls

Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance: Some Basics

Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance

• Multi-sensor, multi-dimensional• Ability to detect, identify, track and engage targets• Also allows the synthesis and sense-making of time-

sensitive data• Denying the same to adversaries (counter-ISR)• Not only electromagnetic spectrum, but also human

intelligence (HUMINT) and acoustic • Fraught with surprises and uncertainties

Maritime Domain Awareness• Maritime domain: all areas and things of, on, under, relating to,

adjacent to, or bordering on a sea, ocean, or other navigable waterway, including all maritime related activities, infrastructure, people, cargo, and vessels and other conveyances.

• Maritime domain awareness: effective understanding of anything associated with the maritime domain that could impact the security, safety, economy, or environment… a key component of an active, layered maritime defense in depth. It will be achieved by improving our ability to collect, fuse, analyze, display, and disseminate actionable information and intelligence to operational commanders.

U.S. National Plan to Achieve Maritime Domain Awareness, October 2005

Maritime Patrol and Reconnaissance Aircraft as a

Case Study

Maritime Patrol and Reconnaissance AircraftShort Range Medium Range Long Range

Flight Endurance 4-7 hours 4-6 hours 16Crew size 3-5 5-8 >10Take-off weight <20 tons 20-30 tons >50 tons

Source: A. Nejat Ince, Ercan Topuz, Erdal Panayirci and Cevdet Isik, Principles of Integrated Maritime Surveillance (Massachusetts: Kluwer Academic Publishers, 1999), pp. 189-90.

Airborne Imagery

Satellite Imagery

Evidence collection for “shame-fare”, the case of the USS Decatur close encounter with the CNS Lanzhou, September 30, 2018

Images extracted from South China Morning Post: https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/geopolitics/article/2171596/exclusive-details-and-footage-emerge-near-collision-between

MPRAs over the SCS2009 2018

SR MR/LR SR MR/LR

Brunei Darussalam 0 1 0 1

China, People's Republic of 0 8 0 10

Indonesia 25 5 23 9

Malaysia 4 0 3 0

The Philippines 4 1 7 2

Taiwan 32 0 0 12

Vietnam 0 4 9 0

The Growing Submarine

Challenge in the South China Sea

The Y-8X maritime surveillance aircraft is the PLA Navy Air Force’s most capable manned airborne surveillance platform since the 1980s until the recent years. It is unarmed, comes with only basic surface surveillance sensors, and possesses weak anti-submarine warfare capability

The Y-8Q, more commonly known as the KQ-200 [KQ refers to 空潜 (kong qian), or airborne anti-submarine] was lately introduced to confer PLANAF a real maritime patrol and reconnaissance aircraft, equipped with a more comprehensive mission suite including ASW sensors, as well as an internal weapons bay in the fuselage

The Sulu Sea Trilateral Air Patrol (TAP) launched in late 2017 faces a perennial capacity shortfall in maritime patrol and reconnaissance aircraft. Of the three partner countries, Indonesia arguably musters the best capacity, ever since it built its MPRA fleet with domestically-built CN235 PATMAR since the early-2000s. Malaysia is bequeathed with only three ageing Beechcraft B200s following mishaps. The Philippines lacks modern, properly equipped MPRAs – the TC-90s transferred from Japan are far from a full-fledged MPRA. To make up for the shortfalls, tactical transport aircraft are used for the TAP. These platforms possess the range and endurance of MPRA but lack the requisite sensors for such role.

Facing shortfalls in specialized airborne platforms such as MPRAs, several ASEAN air forces often have to improvise existing, non-specialized platforms for maritime duties. The most common practice is to assign airlifters without any maritime ISR-related mission systems to perform such tasks. The aircrewman with the trusty binoculars (or videocam) and the ubiquitous “Mark 1 eyeballs” would have to suffice, in all weather, day and night, and poor or low visibility conditions.

MPRAs over the SCS – cont’d2009 2018

Basic Maritime

Surveillance

Full MPRA

Capability incl.

ASW

Basic Maritime

Surveillance

Full MPRA

Capability incl.

ASW

Brunei Darussalam

China, People's Republic of X X X

Indonesia X X

Malaysia X X

The Philippines X X

Taiwan X X

Vietnam X X

Beijing’s Quest for ISR Dominance in the South China Sea… and Beyond?

Author belonged to China’s State Oceanic Administration Technology Research Center

The Present State, Gaps and Development of China’s Ocean Observation Techniques

“The aims of ocean research are, to exploit ocean resources, protecting maritime rights, protecting the marine ecosystem and environment and mitigate marine disasters, thus ocean observation and engineering techniques are the two main pillars for such endeavour.”

China’s ISR Quest in the South China Sea

China’s State Oceanic Administration-run newsletter/bulletin

“At the same time, there are maritime and territorial disputes between China and the peripheral countries. Therefore, building an undersea observation net becomes even more necessary and urgent.”

“Undersea observation network has important significance for scientific research, marine economic development, marine technology and engineering, disaster and environmental protection, navigation and military purposes, amongst others.”

Urgency of Building a Comprehensive Undersea Observation Network

Interpretation and Thinking Behind “Ocean Observation and Forecasting Management Guidelines” in Hainan Province’s Law Enforcement Practice

Authors are members of the China Marine Surveillance (later merged into present day China Coast Guard) 10th

Flotilla, and the Hainan Provincial Ocean Observation and Forecasting Center, all based in Haikou, Hainan Island

“Ocean observation and forecasting is a public service. On 15 February 2012, the State Council’s 192th work meeting passed the Ocean Observation and Forecasting Management Guidelines, and on 1 March, Premier Wen Jiabao signed the No. 615 State Council executive order, which took effect on 1 June. This is China’s historically first legal guidelines regarding ocean observation and forecasting, bearing important significance for promoting national economic and social development, and national defense and security.”

Change and Continuity: Now and Foreseeable Future

Ramifications• More change for China, more continuity for ASEAN

counterparts in the SCS where ISR buildup is concerned• Not only China has been able to out-build its ASEAN rivals in

the area of kinetic assets for peacetime maritime law enforcement, and naval warfighting, but it has also been able to make significant progress in the area of ISR over the past decade

• The combination of China’s kinetic assets and ISR force multipliers pose a “double whammy” for its ASEAN rivals in the SCS

• This asymmetry is set to widen further as China possesses the resource and technological advantages, and already secured a first-mover head-start over its ASEAN rivals, some of whom are often afflicted by funding shortfalls and lack of a strategy in defense and security procurement

In May 2018, the PLA Navy for the first time conducted a joint patrol with China Coast Guard and other local “comprehensive law enforcement” vessels in waters off the Paracel Islands. Lasting five days, the patrol reportedly inspected about 40 vessels, expelled 10 foreign fishing vessels. The concept behind this joint patrol is aimed at boosting the efficacy of China’s maritime law enforcement in situations involving encounters with not only foreign civilian MLE agencies, but also navies.

Policy Suggestions

Continuity• Maintain and enhance information-sharing and intelligence

exchange amongst likeminded partners, both in and outside Southeast Asia, at the bilateral, multilateral and “mini-lateral” levels

Change• Focus on maritime law enforcement assets, i.e. “white hulls”• Improve inter-service, inter-agency coordination• Start to prioritize on ISR capabilities, not see them as low-

priority force multiplier luxuries but real urgent necessities

Low-cost, if not the most perfect solution to ramp up ISR capabilities over the SCS, the case of the Philippine Air Force C-130T Hercules tactical airlifter retrofitted with the “bolt on” Special Airborne Mission Installation and Response (SABIR) suite, supported by the U.S. Southeast Asia Maritime Security Initiative (SEAMSI).

See: https://ph.usembassy.gov/us-government-provides-new-sabir-system-to-enhance-philippine-air-force-capabilities/

Thank you!