dated : 08th april, 2016 dark horse - prabhat dairy … dairy … · dark horse - prabhat dairy...

9
Price ` 112 Upside NA Div Yield NA Tenure 2-3 Years Sensex 24673.84 Nifty 7555.20 Group/Index M.cap (` in cr) 1094 Equity (` In cr) 97.68 52 wk H/L ` 167.50/72 Face Value ` 10 NSE code PRABHAT BSE code 539351 RONW 4% P/E 46.7 P/BV 1.9 EV/EBIDTA 10.3 IN ` EV (`in cr) 1252 BV (`in cr) 57.7 NW(`in cr) Est 563 EPS (TTM) 2.4 In % 84.67 Equity Share Capital 97.68 FV 10 9.77 EPS (FY2018 Est.) 9 Est. P/E Ratio 20 180 Year End 201503 201403 201303 201203 Tax Rate % 21.91 17.75 27.92 34.73 Receivable day 66.40 50.15 35.79 - Div. Payout % 1.66 - - - Source:- Google Accumulate RUDRA SHARES & STOCK BROKERS LTD. Dated : 08th April, 2016 DARK HORSE - PRABHAT DAIRY LTD. B / S&P BSE IPO The procurement volume on the quarter-to-quarter basis is like 30,000 liters - 40,000 liters higher than the last quarter. If we see in last three years to four years company have been from 4.5 lakh liters have grown to around 9 lakh liters plus now and again coming in next three years to four years, is expected to reach at least 14 lakh liters to 15 lakh liters of milk for a capacity utilization of 80%-90%. Contract Agreement Future Consumer Enterprise Ltd a FMCG company of Future Group has tied-up with Prabhat Dairy to take its Nilgiris brand of dairy products to a wider market. Tirumala (Lactalis India) has contracted Prabhat to supply them Sweetened Condensed Milk in tubes of different sizes under the brand name of "LACTEL SSHUP" again under their specifications and branding. FY 18Est. Earnings No. Of equity Shares Estimated Price /Share Corporate Governance Transparency Ratio's VALUATION (` In Cr except per share) BUY Investment Rationale Stock Details Key Valuation Ratios Key Financial Data Evolved from a pure liquid milk provider to catering to customized needs of institutional clients with expanded product offerings and selling branded products in retail market On an overall basis, Prabhat while the basic strength of the company remains the integrated diary business model, recently the Cheese Plant which has got commissioned in the Q2 FY16 is also now driving the growth. There are a couple of new product launches Prabhat has made in the last quarter which includes Prabhat Paneer, Prabhat Shrikhand, variants in the Dahi category particularly, which is the flagship product in the cold chain channel and now Prabhat products are also available across a lot of modern trade channels including Big Bazaar, D-Mart, HyperCity and are also coming with a couple of campaigns starting from next month, which is also driving growth overall. Revenue contribution from the above stated value added products & integineous products respectively, is quite small right now, However, in the coming two to three years company expects to contribute largely to its bottom-line from these newly launched products. However, management indicated that the EBITDA Margins would be sustained at 8-10% range. Right now particularly the focus is on Bombay and in coming days this will be expanded to other mini metro cities as well as other major cities of Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh. Cheese made up of cow milk -- Advantage. as Amul's is from buffalo milk:- As cheese has very limited number of players in the country, the capacity which the company has set-up right now, it is the third largest player (in terms of capacity) and very shortly will be one of the major players in the overall thing as well. The capacity utilization as of now, of cheese plant is pretty low at just less than 5% & is expected to get fully streamlined by the next nine months to 12 months. Therefore, from next year as a whole company is expecting a good amount of business coming from Cheese as a vertical. Raw milk »»» The primary raw material used Prabhat has built a strong relationship with local milk farmers, which enables it to procure a large portion of its raw milk requirement directly from milk famers and registered milk vendors. The business operations of the company are dependent on company's ability to procure sufficient amounts of quality raw milk at commercially viable prices. Share Holding Pattern Geographical Advantage combined with Premium Dairy Products:- Prabhat Dairy has the geographical advantage of operating in the highest milk producing region in the country which is Ahmednagar district and then again, the multi-product manufacturing facilities which gives an edge slightly over the manufacturing cost, And most importantly again, dealing only into premium diary ingredients with into certain products which not many people manufacture in this country, therefore, all these things put together makes Prabhat Dairy to operate for slightly better margin of around 9%-10% as against 7%-8% what the peers operate in this industry. Promo ter's 43.84 % FII 31.67 % Bodies Corp. 14.53% Others 9.96%

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Page 1: Dated : 08th April, 2016 DARK HORSE - PRABHAT DAIRY … DAIRY … · DARK HORSE - PRABHAT DAIRY LTD. ... as Amul's is from buffalo milk:- ... Sweetened condensed milk Skimmed Milk

Price ` 112

Upside NA

Div Yield NA

Tenure 2-3 Years

Sensex 24673.84

Nifty 7555.20

Group/Index

M.cap (` in cr) 1094

Equity (` In cr) 97.68

52 wk H/L ` 167.50/72

Face Value ` 10

NSE code PRABHAT

BSE code 539351

RONW 4%

P/E 46.7

P/BV 1.9

EV/EBIDTA 10.3

IN `

EV (`in cr) 1252

BV (`in cr) 57.7

NW(`in cr) Est 563

EPS (TTM) 2.4

In %

84.67

Equity Share Capital 97.68

FV 10

9.77

EPS (FY2018 Est.) 9

Est. P/E Ratio 20

180

Year End 201503 201403 201303 201203

Tax Rate % 21.91 17.75 27.92 34.73

Receivable days 66.40 50.15 35.79 -

Div. Payout % 1.66 - - -

Source:- Google

Accumulate

RUDRA SHARES &

STOCK BROKERS LTD.

Dated : 08th April, 2016

DARK HORSE - PRABHAT DAIRY LTD.

B / S&P BSE

IPO

The procurement volume on the quarter-to-quarter basis is like 30,000 liters - 40,000 liters higher than

the last quarter. If we see in last three years to four years company have been from 4.5 lakh liters have

grown to around 9 lakh liters plus now and again coming in next three years to four years, is expected to

reach at least 14 lakh liters to 15 lakh liters of milk for a capacity utilization of 80%-90%.

Contract Agreement

Future Consumer Enterprise Ltd a FMCG company of Future Group has tied-up with Prabhat Dairy to

take its Nilgiris brand of dairy products to a wider market.

Tirumala (Lactalis India) has contracted Prabhat to supply them Sweetened Condensed Milk in tubes of

different sizes under the brand name of "LACTEL SSHUP" again under their specifications and branding.

FY 18Est. Earnings

No. Of equity Shares

Estimated Price /Share

Corporate Governance Transparency Ratio's

VALUATION (` In Cr except per share)

BUY Investment Rationale

Stock Details

Key Valuation Ratios

Key Financial Data

Evolved from a pure liquid milk provider to catering to customized needs of institutional clients

with expanded product offerings and selling branded products in retail market

On an overall basis, Prabhat while the basic strength of the company remains the integrated diary

business model, recently the Cheese Plant which has got commissioned in the Q2 FY16 is also now

driving the growth. There are a couple of new product launches Prabhat has made in the last quarter

which includes Prabhat Paneer, Prabhat Shrikhand, variants in the Dahi category particularly,

which is the flagship product in the cold chain channel and now Prabhat products are also available

across a lot of modern trade channels including Big Bazaar, D-Mart, HyperCity and are also coming with a

couple of campaigns starting from next month, which is also driving growth overall.

Revenue contribution from the above stated value added products & integineous products respectively,

is quite small right now, However, in the coming two to three years company expects to contribute

largely to its bottom-line from these newly launched products. However, management indicated that the

EBITDA Margins would be sustained at 8-10% range. Right now particularly the focus is on Bombay and

in coming days this will be expanded to other mini metro cities as well as other major cities of Gujarat

and Madhya Pradesh.

Cheese made up of cow milk -- Advantage. as Amul's is from buffalo milk:-

As cheese has very limited number of players in the country, the capacity which the company has

set-up right now, it is the third largest player (in terms of capacity) and very shortly will be one of the

major players in the overall thing as well.

The capacity utilization as of now, of cheese plant is pretty low at just less than 5% & is expected to get

fully streamlined by the next nine months to 12 months.

Therefore, from next year as a whole company is expecting a good amount of business coming from

Cheese as a vertical.

Raw milk »»» The primary raw material used

Prabhat has built a strong relationship with local milk farmers, which enables it to procure a large

portion of its raw milk requirement directly from milk famers and registered milk vendors. The business

operations of the company are dependent on company's ability to procure sufficient amounts of quality

raw milk at commercially viable prices. Share Holding Pattern

Geographical Advantage combined with Premium Dairy Products:-

Prabhat Dairy has the geographical advantage of operating in the highest milk producing region in the

country which is Ahmednagar district and then again, the multi-product manufacturing facilities which

gives an edge slightly over the manufacturing cost, And most importantly again, dealing only into

premium diary ingredients with into certain products which not many people manufacture in this

country, therefore, all these things put together makes Prabhat Dairy to operate for slightly better

margin of around 9%-10% as against 7%-8% what the peers operate in this industry.

Promoter's 43.84

%

FII31.67

%

Bodies Corp.

14.53%

Others9.96%

Page 2: Dated : 08th April, 2016 DARK HORSE - PRABHAT DAIRY … DAIRY … · DARK HORSE - PRABHAT DAIRY LTD. ... as Amul's is from buffalo milk:- ... Sweetened condensed milk Skimmed Milk

Key Highlights

450+ milk collection centers, 85+ bulk milk coolers, 15+ milk chilling plants

Procures a majority of raw milk in Maharashtra, a significant cow milk producing region in India.

` in crores

31.12.2015 30.09.2015 31.12.2014

304.83 288.65 256.53 5.61% 18.83%

29.08 35.41 250.77 -17.88% -88.40%

9.54% 12.27% 97.75% - -

12.62 8.51 6.45 48.30% 95.66%

4.14% 2.95% 2.51% - -

7.53 5.65 2.28 33.27% 230.26%

2.47% 1.96% 0.89% - -

0.92 0.76 7.62 21.05% -87.93%

Note:- As the company completed its IPO in the month of September, 2015. Therefore, the figures are not comparable.

Snapshot of Revenue & profitability

EBITDA MARGINS %

Q3 FY 2015-16 Performance:-

Processed dairy industry to grow even faster at 12-13% CAGR during FY14-17E & India amongst the fastest

growing market in the world.

RUDRA SHARES &

STOCK BROKERS LTD.

EBITDA %

PBT

PBT%

Reputed Clients

Strategic location of facilities in Ahmednagar and Navi Mumbai, Maharashtra enables to minimize

transportation and handling costs.

Daily procurement of approximately y 900k lit res(2) of milk through milk farmers, registered vendors and milk

collection centers.

Modern technology enabled plants result in greater operational efficiencies; stringent quality control to ensure

food safety.

Sunfresh Agro Industries Pvt. Ltd.(a material subsidiary company) has received benefits from the Government

in the nature of Government Grants.

Company have handled around 9.3 lakh liters - 9.4 lakh liters on an average daily basis during the

December quarter, this numbers obviously keeps on varying roughly around 2-20 basis and average milk

procurement price somewhere in the range of around ` 22.50 per liter to ` 23 per liter across in all the

segments average out.

Quarter Ended

EBITDA

Revenue

Company

increasing

the EBITDA

Margins &

moving up

the value

chain to

FMCG

products.

Company's OPEX have increased during the Quarter, which is mainly due to Sales promotion expenditure

which the company has made during the launch of its new products, plus the cheese plant which is now

operational, a lot of cold storages & electricity cost have gone up in the commissioning of that plant&

employee appraisals made during the year , this all have lead to increase in opex. Also, increase in sales

volume growth to 6% . Therefore, inc. in variable exp. Is evident.

% change

Q-0-Q

% change

Y-0-Y

On October, 09,2015, search was conducted by the Income Tax Department at the offices of the company at

Shrirampur, Pune & Navi Mumbai & also at other subsidiary offices of the company. The Positive thing in this

regard is no Demand notice has been received till date with respect to research.

Net Revenue ` in Crores Gross Contribution %

The last quarter for the company has been pretty good. Company had robust growth across all its

ingredients and consumer business segment. During the 31st December, ended 2015, consolidated

quarterly revenue grew by around 19% compared to the previous quarter from around ` 256 crores to

around ` 304 crores. On a sequential basis the net sales grew by 6%. The profit before tax for the quarter

rolls around 96% from 6.5% to around ` 12.6 crores. The gross debt came down to ` 185 crores and the

net debt (net of cash) came down to about ` 145 crores as result of which debt to equity ratio came

down to 0.3x, which has substantially reduced company's finance cost to ` 7.8 crores for the quarter as it

is reflected in the financials.

There is a drop in depreciation in the December quarter, which is mainly due to the reassessment of

company's chief plant which was capitalized somewhere in June. However, the useful life of has been

reassessed & as a result depreciation has come down & therefore, there is a ` 1.6 crores impact of Q2

which is also reflected in this quarter and as a result of which depreciation stands at ` 8.8 crores.

PAT

PAT %

EPS

Consolidated Results

Particulars

Page 3: Dated : 08th April, 2016 DARK HORSE - PRABHAT DAIRY … DAIRY … · DARK HORSE - PRABHAT DAIRY LTD. ... as Amul's is from buffalo milk:- ... Sweetened condensed milk Skimmed Milk

Source: Company's Presentation

Specialty ingredient products

● Shrikhand ● Cheddar(Processed) Cheese

● Dairy whitener ● Sweetened condensed milk

● Sweetened condensed milk ● Skimmed Milk powder ● Ice Cream- Mother Dairy

● Cow Ghee ● Whole milk powder

● Curd ● Concentrated Milk

● Flavored Milk ● Dairy whitener

● Prabhat Nutri 100

●Pasteurized Milk

● Lassi

● chaas

● Mozzarella cheese

● Paneer (Cottage cheese)

● Processed Cheese

Diversified Product Portfolio

Milk product segment set to grow by growth at a CAGR of 12-13% over FY14 to FY17 driven by growth in all

product categories

Co-manufactured products

RUDRA SHARES &

STOCK BROKERS LTD.

● Ghee- Dmart & Future

Group

● chaas & Dahi- Heritage,

Britannia & reliance

Retail consumer products

Page 4: Dated : 08th April, 2016 DARK HORSE - PRABHAT DAIRY … DAIRY … · DARK HORSE - PRABHAT DAIRY LTD. ... as Amul's is from buffalo milk:- ... Sweetened condensed milk Skimmed Milk

RISKS AND CONCERNS

Incorporated in 1998 in the Ahmednagar district of Maharashtra, India (one of the largest milk producing states in

India). Prabhat Dairy Limited is an integrated milk and dairy products company in India catering to institutional as

well as retail customers. The Company produces fresh, dry, frozen, cultured and fermented dairy products, including

pasteurized milk, flavored milk, sweetened condensed milk, ultra-pasteurized or ultra-high temperature (UHT) milk,

yoghurt, dairy whitener, clarified butter (ghee), Cheese, Paneer, Shrikhand, milk powder, ingredients for baby foods,

lassi and chaas.

Prabhat has 2 state-of-the-art manufacturing units at Shrirampur (Ahmednagar) and Turbhe (Navi Mumbai).

They have established automated production facilities at their Shrirampur and Navi Mumbai facilities equipped with

advanced technology which ensures operational efficiencies including lower production losses, strict quality control

and ability to process large orders.

Seasonal factors: Dairy cows generally produce more milk in temperate weather, and extreme cold or hot weather

could lead to lower than expected production. Raw milk procurement and production is therefore higher in the

second half of the Fiscal during the winter months with temperate climate in company's milk procurement region.

Competition in the Dairy Industry: The dairy products industry in India is highly competitive, especially the

markets for pasteurized milk, UHT milk, flavored milk, curd (dahi), ice cream and cheese. These products are

experiencing rapid development and increasing competition. Also, Raw milk, which is the primary raw material

used in the production of all the dairy products by the company. Competition in the dairy industry may result in an

increase in raw milk prices, which would result in an increase in the production cost, thereby declining the Margins

of the company.

Environmental factors: The volume and quality of milk produced by dairy cows is closely linked to the quality of

the nourishment provided by appropriate cattle feed and the environment around them, &, therefore, if the quality

of cattle feed or the environmental factors cause the quality of nourishment to decline, it could adversely affect milk

production and the quality of milk.

Governmental policy: Any significant regulatory or policy changes affecting government grants or subsidies or the

use and ownership of agricultural land, or policy changes affecting agricultural and environmental issues in India

may have an adverse effect on the viability of dairy farmers and may affect company's raw milk procurement model.

Cattle health: Cattle health is an important factor in the production of quality raw milk. In the event that a large scale

disease or epidemic affects cattle within the milk procurement belt, ability to procure adequate amounts of quality raw

milk will be severely affected.

Based on Company's performance & business growth outlook, we expect Prabhat's Net Revenues to grow

substancially in 2-3 years time. Prabhat's current P/E ratio looks very expensive at 45x . However, considering the

lower interest cost, sustained EBITDA Margins, future growth prospects of the company, we believe all that would

boost their bottomline.

At the CMP of ` 112 & Estimated FY18 EPS at ` 8.67, the forwarded P/E Ratio is calculated at around 13x

(approx.). Therefore, taking forward P/E Ratio at 20x on FY18 Est. EPS, which seems quie fair, the estimated

share price turns around to ` 180.

We are quite bullish on the earning of the company & keeping into consideration the changing life styles of

consumers, increase in urbanization, better health awareness amongst the end users & demand for processed milk,

we recommend to accumulate the share price of the company in long term for approx. 2-3 years.

Valuation Conclusion

Company Overview

RUDRA SHARES &

STOCK BROKERS LTD.

Launch of new products by the company including the Prabhat Paneer, Prabhat Shrikhand, variants in the Dahi

category particularly, which is the flagship product in the cold chain channel and also products available across a

lot of modern trade channels including Big Bazaar, D-Mart, HyperCity and also coming up with a couple of campaigns

starting from next month, which is driving overall growth by the company.

Revenue contribution from the above stated value added products & integineous products respectively, is quite

small right now, However, in the coming two to three years company expects to contribute largely to its bottom-line

from these newly launched products. However, management indicated that the EBITDA Margins would be sustained

at 8-10% range. Right now particularly the focus is on Bombay and in coming days this will be expanded to other

mini metro cities as well as other major cities of Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh.

Sunfresh Agro Industries Pvt. Ltd.(a material subsidiary company) has received benefits from the Government in the

nature of Government Grants.

Also, India is amongst the largest consumer of milk in the country. & company entered into premium integrients

products, which have less competition as of now. Also, procurement of Cow's milk adds advantage to it amongst its

peers.

Page 5: Dated : 08th April, 2016 DARK HORSE - PRABHAT DAIRY … DAIRY … · DARK HORSE - PRABHAT DAIRY LTD. ... as Amul's is from buffalo milk:- ... Sweetened condensed milk Skimmed Milk

LTM 201512 201509 201506 201503

1145.1 304.8 288.6 268.6 283.1

121.6 29.3 36.0 27.4 29.0

35.9 8.8 12.4 8.2 6.4

85.7 20.4 23.5 19.2 22.6

1.6 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.4

48.4 7.8 15.0 12.6 13.0

37.3 12.6 8.5 6.6 9.6

13.9 5.1 2.9 3.4 2.5

23.4 7.5 5.7 3.2 7.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

23.4 7.5 5.7 3.2 7.0

2.8 0.8 0.6 0.5 1.0

2.4 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.7

Particulars 201203 201303 201403 201503 2016E 2017E 2018E

Sales 483.03 641.12 856.67 1000.76 1192.23 1442.60 1774.40

- - - - - - -

Total Inc. from operations 483.03 641.12 856.67 1000.76 1192.23 1442.60 1774.40

Operating EBITA 32.23 48.39 57.30 67.19 76.54 102.66 140.34

Total Inc. from operations 483.03 641.12 856.67 1000.76 1192.23 1442.60 1774.40

Raw Material Cost 381.92 503.65 672.54 776.18 921.59 1114.41 1370.72

10.21 11.62 19.36 25.59 32.79 36.06 44.36

42.22 53.05 74.01 97.40 119.22 147.87 177.44

TOTAL EXPENDITURE 434.35 568.32 765.91 899.17 1073.60 1298.34 1592.52

EBITDA 48.68 72.80 90.76 101.59 118.63 144.26 181.88

Depreciation (16.45) (24.41) (33.46) (34.40) (42.09) (41.60) (41.54)

32.23 48.39 57.30 67.19 76.54 102.66 140.34

Goodwill amortization - - - - - - -

32.23 48.39 57.3 67.19 76.54 102.66 140.34

0.78 0.81 0.97 0.97 2.16 1.08 3.56

Net financials

Interest income - - - - - - -

Interest expenses (18.41) (29.68) (32.98) (41.19) (38.15) (19.80) (17.54)

Net Financial Items (18.41) (29.68) (32.98) (41.19) (38.15) (19.80) (17.54)

Reported Pre-tax profit 14.60 19.52 25.29 26.97 40.54 83.94 126.37

Reported Tax charge (5.07) (5.45) (4.49) (5.91) (13.51) (27.70) (41.70)

Reported Net profit 9.53 14.07 20.8 21.06 27.03 56.24 84.67

Minorities

P/L OF ASSOCIATE CO. - - - - - - -

9.53 14.07 20.80 21.06 27.03 56.24 84.67

Extra Ordinary income - - - - - - -

Dividend Paid - - - (0.35) (0.52) (0.93) (1.41)

Retained earnings 9.53 14.07 20.80 20.71 26.51 55.31 83.26

Reported EPS 211.78 8.30 7.66 2.95 3.20 5.76 8.67

Adjusted Basic EPS 0.98 1.44 2.13 2.16 2.77 5.76 8.67

DPS - - - 0.05 0.05 0.10 0.14

Opening Balance 0.45 0.45 16.95 27.14 71.43 97.68 97.68

Issued during the Period - 16.5 10.19 44.29 26.25 - -

Closing Balance 0.45 16.95 27.14 71.43 97.68 97.68 97.68

FV 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00

Wtd. Avg. no. of shares 0.05 1.70 2.71 7.14 9.77 9.77 9.77

Reported Net Income after

extra ordinary items

Quarterly Results (` in cr except per share)Particulars

Taxes

Net Sales

Misc.Inc (Exp.)

84.67

EPS and Dividend

Number Of Shares

27.03 56.24

58.27

21.0614.07 20.80

Rep.profit before othrinc.,

fin.cost,tax & excp. Item

Other operating Inc.

Extraord. Items

Net Inc(Reg)

Profit & Loss

Interest Exp

EBT

EBITDA

Other Income

Depreciation

Op Income

Rep Net Inc

Income Statement and Estimates ( ` in Cr except per share)

Employee Expenses

Other Expenses

9.53

78.7068.16

Reported Net profit after

min. Intt.

33.01

RUDRA SHARES &

STOCK BROKERS LTD.

Profit from ordinary activities

before fin. Cost, tax & excp.

Items

Rep.profit before othrinc.,

fin.cost,tax & excp. Item

143.90

EPS

Adj. EPS

103.7449.2

Page 6: Dated : 08th April, 2016 DARK HORSE - PRABHAT DAIRY … DAIRY … · DARK HORSE - PRABHAT DAIRY LTD. ... as Amul's is from buffalo milk:- ... Sweetened condensed milk Skimmed Milk

Particulars 201203 201303 201403 201503 2016E 2017E 2018E

Shareholders' Fund

Share Capital 0.45 16.94 27.13 71.42 97.68 97.68 97.68

Reserves and Surplus 112.95 220.5 290.93 267.11 465.52 529.83 640.39

Minority Interests - - - - - - -

113.4 237.44 318.06 338.53 563.20 627.51 738.07

Long-term Borrowings 168.89 141.43 134.09 215.94 65.00 55.00 40.00

- - - - - - -

Deferred Tax Liability 12.73 15.07 18.09 17.76 25.00 32.00 36.00

Long term Provisions 0.20 0.46 0.66 1.07 1.28 1.41 1.55

181.82 156.96 152.84 234.77 91.28 88.41 77.55

Current Liabilities

Short term Borrowings 82.83 100.27 123.34 165.60 115.00 112.00 98.00

Trade Payables 29.59 25.57 43.56 62.20 71.53 86.56 94.04

other current liability 68.61 51.84 64.19 44.32 77.49 93.77 106.46

Short term Provisions 2.96 3.36 4.72 4.99 5.49 6.04 6.64

Total current Liabilities 183.99 181.04 235.81 277.11 269.52 298.36 305.15

Total Equity & Liab. 479.21 575.44 706.71 850.41 924.00 1014.29 1120.77

Assets

Non-Current Assets

Fixed Assets

Tangible fixed Assets 303.52 341.27 410.77 450.88 474.36 468.83 468.10

Intangible Fixed Assets 0.36 0.32 0.17 0.89 0.89 0.89 0.89

Non-current Investments - 0.02 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07

Long term L&A 54.89 102.16 59.23 68.03 34.28 36.47 38.5

Other Non current Assets 3.47 0.47 1.30 1.3 1.3

Deferred tax receiv. - - - - - - -

Total Non-Current Assets 362.24 443.77 470.24 520.34 510.90 507.56 508.86

Current Assets

Current Investments

Inventories 23.27 36.07 43.50 63.44 65.57 79.34 97.59

Trade Receivables 46.02 79.71 155.70 208.40 239.64 288.52 328.26

Cash & cash Equivalents 2.89 6.15 4.39 21.54 21.60 44.45 86.85

Short Term L&A 41.39 5.88 32.74 28.43 75.00 80.00 82.35

Other current Assets 3.40 3.86 0.15 8.26 11.33 14.43 16.86

Total current Assets 116.97 131.67 236.48 330.07 413.14 506.74 611.91

Total Assets 479.21 575.44 706.72 850.41 924.00 1014.29 1120.77

Cash & cash equivalents 2.89 6.15 4.39 21.54 21.60 44.45 86.85

Other int. bearing assets - 0.02 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07

Interest-bearing debt 251.72 241.70 257.43 381.54 180.00 167.00 138.00

Net interest-bearing debt 248.83 235.53 252.97 359.93 158.33 122.48 51.08

Net gearing (%) 219.43% 99.20% 79.54% 106.32% 28.11% 19.52% 6.92%

Tangible assets

Gross capex (109.18) (113.62) (67.40) (53.56) (65.57) (36.06) (40.81)

Sale of fixed assets - 0.10 0.18 - - - -

Net capex (109.18) (113.52) (67.22) (53.56) (65.57) (36.06) (40.81)

Depreciation tangibles (16.45) (24.41) (33.46) (34.40) (42.09) (41.60) (41.54)

Note:- The figures shown in the brackets means NEGATIVE.

Investments

Equity & Liabilities

BALANCE SHEET

RUDRA SHARES &

STOCK BROKERS LTD.

Non-Current Liabilities

Other Long term Liab.

Total Non-Current Liab.

Total Shareholders' Fund

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Particulars 201203 201303 201403 201503 2016E 2017E 2018E

EBIT 33.01 49.20 58.27 68.16 78.70 103.74 143.90

Depreciation 16.45 24.41 33.46 34.40 42.09 41.60 41.54

Dep.(ex goodwill) 16.45 24.41 33.46 34.40 42.09 41.60 41.54

Mov.in Inventories 5.61 (12.80) (7.43) (19.93) (2.13) (13.77) (18.25)

Mov. in Debtors 20.29 (33.69) (75.98) (52.70) (31.24) (48.88) (39.74)

Mov. in Creditors (19.65) (4.01) 17.99 18.63 9.33 15.02 7.49

Movement in OCL (11.38) 3.89 7.17 (6.00) 33.17 16.27 12.69

Movement in prov. 0.09 0.37 0.21 0.65 0.71 0.55 0.60

Movement in l&A 7.01 (3.46) (1.30) (34.99) 33.75 (2.19) (2.03)

Movement in S&A 8.24 35.51 (18.97) 0.34 (46.57) (5.00) (2.35)

Other W.C Inc./dec. (1.11) 1.74 (0.36) (1.24) - - -

Change in W.C 9.10 (12.45) (78.67) (95.24) (2.97) (38.00) (41.59)

Tax paid (5.07) (5.45) (4.49) (5.91) (13.51) (27.70) (41.70)

Operating Cash Flow 53.49 55.71 8.57 1.41 104.31 79.65 102.15

Net interest (18.41) (29.68) (32.98) (41.19) (38.15) (19.80) (17.54)

Cash Earnings 35.08 26.03 (24.41) (39.78) 66.15 59.85 84.61

Gross CapEx (109.18) (113.52) (67.22) (53.56) (65.57) (36.06) (40.81)

Sale of fixed assets - 0.10 0.18 - - - -

Net CapEx (109.18) (113.42) (67.04) (53.56) (65.57) (36.06) (40.81)

Free CF pre div. (74.10) (87.39) (91.45) (93.34) 0.58 23.78 43.80

Dividend - - - (0.35) (0.35) (0.93) (1.41)

(74.10) (87.39) (91.45) (93.69) (0.06) 22.85 42.40

Net acqui./disposals - - - - - - -

Net cash flow (74.10) (87.39) (91.45) (93.69) (0.06) 22.85 42.40

Particulars 201203 201303 201403 201503 2016E 2017E 2018E

Return on assets - 2.67% 3.24% 2.70% 3.05% 5.80% 7.93%

Return on equity - 8.02% 7.49% 6.41% 6.00% 9.45% 12.40%

ROCE - 9.41% 9.75% 9.39% 9.85% 13.25% 16.53%

EBIT Margin - 7.67% 6.80% 6.81% 6.60% 7.19% 8.11%

Pre tax margin - 3.04% 2.95% 2.69% 3.40% 5.82% 7.12%

Net Profit Margin - 2.19% 2.43% 2.10% 2.27% 3.90% 4.77%

Total asset turnover - 1.22 1.34 1.29 1.34 1.49 1.66

Fixed asset turnover - 1.99 2.28 2.32 2.58 3.06 3.79

Equity turnover - 3.65 3.08 3.05 2.64 2.42 2.60

Current Ratio - 0.73 1.00 1.19 1.53 1.70 2.01

Quick Ratio - 0.53 0.82 0.96 1.29 1.43 1.69

Cash Ratio - 0.03 0.02 0.08 0.08 0.15 0.28

Receivable Days - 35.79 50.15 66.40 68.58 66.82 63.44

Inventory Days - 21.50 21.59 25.14 25.55 23.73 23.56

Payable Days - 19.49 18.55 24.24 26.42 25.57 23.73

Conversion Cycle (Days) - 37.80 53.19 67.30 67.71 64.97 63.27

Financial Leverage Effect - 5.17 4.36 4.82 4.39 2.56 2.15

Debt to Capital - 0.50 0.45 0.53 0.24 0.21 0.16

Debt to Equity - 1.02 0.81 1.13 0.32 0.27 0.19

Note:- The figures shown in the brackets means NEGATIVE.

RUDRA SHARES &

STOCK BROKERS LTD.

RATIO ANALYSIS

Free CF post Dividend

CASH FLOW ANALYSIS

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Disclosures :

1) Business Activity :

2)

3)

4)

Sr. No. Yes/No

a) No

b) No

c) No

5)

Sr. No. Yes/No

a) No

b) No

c) No

6) Other Disclosures:

Yes/No

Sr. No.

a) No

b) No

c) No

RUDRA SHARES &

STOCK BROKERS LTD.

Disclosures & Disclaimers

Rudra or its research analysts, or his/her relative or associates have actual/beneficial

ownership of one per cent or more securities of the subject company.

Disclosures with regard to receipt of compensation :

Disclosures

Rudra or its associates have received any compensation from the subject company in the past

twelve months.

Rudra or its associates have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the

subject in the past twelve months.

Disclosures

The research analyst has served as an officer,director,employee of the subject company.

Rudra or its research analyst has been engaged in market making activity for the subject

company.

Rudra or its or associates have received any compensation from the subject company in the

past twelve months.

Rudra or its associates have received any compensation or other benefits from the subject

company or third party in connection with the research report .

Rudra Shares & Stock Brokers Limited is engaged in the business of providing broking services & distribution of various

financial products. RUDRA is also registered as a Research Analyst under SEBI(Research Analyst) Regulations, 2014. SEBI

Reg. No. INH100002524.

Disciplinary History :

There has been no instance of any Disciplinary action, penalty etc. levied/passed by any regulation/administrative agencies

against RUDRA and its Directors. Pursuant to SEBI inspection of books and records of Rudra, as a Stock Broker, SEBI has not

issued any Administrative warning to Rudra.

Terms & Conditions of issuance of Research Report:

The Research report is issued to the registered clients. The Research Report is based on the facts, figures and information

that are considered true, correct and reliable. The information is obtained from publicly available media or other sources

believed to be reliable. The report is prepared solely for informational purpose and does not constitute an offer document

or solicitation to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments for clients.

Disclosures with regard to ownership and material conflicts of interest :

Disclosures

Rudra or its research analysts, or his/her relative or associate has any direct or indirect

financial interest in the subject company.

Rudra or its research analysts, or his/her relative or associate has any other material conflict of

interest at time of publication of the research report.

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RUDRA SHARES & STOCK BROKERS LTD.

Phone: +91 – 512 – 67011055-54

RUDRA SHARES &

STOCK BROKERS LTD.

Disclaimers:

This Research Report (hereinafter called report) has been prepared and presented by RUDRA SHARES & STOCK BROKERS LIMITED, which

does not constitute any offer or advice to sell or does solicitation to buy any securities. The information presented in this report, are for the

intended recipients only. Further, the intended recipients are advised to exercise restraint in placing any dependence on this report, as the

sender, Rudra Shares & Stock Brokers Limited, neither guarantees the accuracy of any information contained herein nor assumes any

responsibility in relation to losses arising from the errors of fact, opinion or the dependence placed on the same.

Despite the information in this document has been previewed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data , personal views of

the research analyst(s)and other reliable sources, believed to be true, we do not represent it as accurate, complete or exhaustive. It should

not be relied on as such, as this document is for general guidance only. Besides this, the research analyst(s) are bound by stringent internal

regulations and legal and statutory requirements of the Securities and Exchange Board of India( SEBI) and the analysts' compensation was, is,

or will be not directly or indirectly related with the other companies and/or entities of Rudra Shares & Stock Brokers Ltd and have no bearing

whatsoever on any recommendation, that they have given in the research report. Rudra Shares & Stock Brokers Ltd or any of its

affiliates/group companies shall not be in any way responsible for any such loss or damage that may arise to any person from any

inadvertent error in the information contained in this report. Rudra Shares & Stock Brokers Ltd has not independently verified all the

information, which has been obtained by the company for analysis purpose, from publicly available media or other sources believed to be

reliable. Accordingly, we neither testify nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, of the accuracy, contents or data

contained within this document. Rudra Share & Stock Brokers Ltd and its affiliates are engaged in investment advisory, stock broking, retail

& HNI and other financial services. Details of affiliates are available on our website i.e. www.rudrashares.com.

We hereby declare, that the information herein may change any time due to the volatile market conditions, therefore, it is advised to use

own discretion and judgment while entering into any transactions, whatsoever.

Individuals employed as research analyst by Rudra Shares & Stock Brokers Ltd or their associates are not allowed to deal or trade in

securities, within thirty days before and five days after the publication of a research report as prescribed under SEBI Research Analyst

Regulations.Subject to the restrictions mentioned in above paragraph, we and our affiliates, officers, directors, employees and their relative may: (a)

from time to time, have long or short positions acting as a principal in, and buy or sell the securities or derivatives thereof, of Company

mentioned herein or (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or profits.