date: 13 december, 2019
TRANSCRIPT
Date: 13 December, 2019
The Daily Viewpoint
Page 2PCG Research
DOMESTIC INDICES
Close Points % Change
SENSEX 40582 169 0.42
NIFTY 11972 62 0.52
MIDCAP 14696 100 0.69
SMALL CAP 13224 77 0.59
SECTORAL INDICES
Close Points % Change
METAL 9568 225 2.41
AUTO 17799 232 1.32
BANKEX 36134 446 1.25
CG 16757 200 1.21
Finance 6849 65 0.95
POWER 1876 18 0.95
REALTY 2166 19 0.86
Healthcare 13368 90 0.67
CD 25042 131 0.53
OIL & GAS 14769 61 0.42
TECK 7377 -105 -1.41
IT 14758 -229 -1.53
BSE 200 GAINERS/LOSERS
GAINERS % LOSERS %
IDBI 9.33 INFY -2.63
IBULHSGFIN 8.71 3MINDIA -2.32
TATAMTRDVR 7.23 INDHOTEL -1.95
TATAMOTORS 7.17 ADANITRANS -1.91
YESBANK 5.96 NAUKRI -1.70
ADVANCE/DECLINES
BSE %
ADVANCES 1375 53
DECLINES 1043 40
UNCHANGED 174 7
INSTITUTIONAL ACTIVITY
Rs Cr 12/12/19 11/12/19 Dec Total
FII -684 605 -3844 (prov.)
MF 810 240 3885 (prov.)
The Nifty is likely to open higher this morning followingthe buoyancy in the Asian markets which are heaving asigh of relief that President Donald Trump has signed offon an initial trade agreement with China.
This would avoid imminent US tariffs that were to comeinto force from December 15 and reduce the rates ofexisting duties in exchange for a Chinese promise topurchase more American farm goods.
The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq have also closed at recordhighs Thursday and are up further in the futures trade.The Nifty did well Thursday to close with 62 points gain at11,972.
The Nifty could open around 30 points higher. The Rupeecould also strengthen around 23 paise in the openingtrade.
The Nifty’s low for the month of November was 11,802and that for December is 11,832. The making of higherlows augurs well for the markets. With puts being writtenat 11,900 strike, the support for the Nifty has furthermoved up.
Investors, however, are likely to lack confidence in thelight of the contraction in manufacturing and rising ofinflation.
Another negative for our markets is that that Crude oilgets a new fillip as U.S. and China smoke the trade peacepipe.
The Nifty is likely to face resistance in the 12,050-80range.
Reliance, ICICI and Kotak are well placed. Metals also needto be kept in mind. Any late day recovery in Metals couldbe bought into.
MARKETS SET TO OPEN HIGHER AS TRADE CLOUDS DISBURSE
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GLOBAL INDICES
Close Points % Chg
DOW JONES 28132 220.75 0.79
S & P 500 3169 26.94 0.86
NASDAQ 8717 63.27 0.73
FTSE 7273 57.22 0.79
CAC 5884 23.39 0.40
DAX 5897 33.40 0.57
EXCHANGE RATES
Value % Change
USD/INR 70.6 0.20
EURO/USD 1.117 0.41
USD/GBP 1.347 2.32
USD/JPY 109.6 0.26
COMMODITIES
Value %
Gold ($ / Oz) 1473.0 0.04
Silver ($ / Oz) 17.0 0.14
Crude Oil Futures 59.5 0.56
Brent Oil ($ / Barrel) 64.6 0.69
BOND YIELD
Value % Chg bps
IND10 Yr Bond Yield 6.78 1
ADR
Value $ %
Dr Reddys Labs 41.26 0.88
HDFC Bank 63.44 0.40
ICICI Bank 15.09 0.73
Tata Motors 12.34 8.72
Wipro 3.68 0.55
Vedanta Ltd 8.48 5.21
INFOSYS 10.03 -0.40
Industrial output shrinks 3.8% in October-19India's industrial output declined 3.8 percent in Octoberon the back of poor performance across all sectors. Amajor reason for decrease in India's Index of IndustrialProduction (IIP) is declining performance of eight coreindustries that comprise 40.27 percent of the IIP. Otherthan that, coal and cement production also dipped by17.6 percent and 7.7 percent, respectively, in October.
The Indices of Industrial Production for the mining,manufacturing and electricity sectors for the month ofOctober 2019 declined 8.0 percent, 2.1 percent, and12.2 percent, respectively. In terms of industries, 18out of the 23 industry groups in the manufacturingsector have shown negative growth during the monthof October 2019, government data showed.
Industrial output in September had fallen by 4.27percent due to poor show across all sectors. IIP haddeclined by 1.41 percent in August 2019. Thecumulative growth for the April-September 2019 periodhad also slipped to 1.3 percent, down from 2.4 percentin August.
Meanwhile, retail inflation hit 40 months high of 5.54percent in November, up from 4.62 percent in October.Inflation in the food basket jumped to 10.01 percent inNovember, from 7.89 percent in October. Whilevegetables inflation shot up to 36 percent vs. 26percent in October, inflation rate in cereals andproducts was at 3.7 percent during the month. Withinvegetables item, the inflation rate in onions climbed to64.9 percent from 45.3 percent in October.
Domestic air passenger traffic in November grows atfastest pace in 2019Domestic air passenger traffic for November grew atthe fastest pace in 2019. Indian airlines carried 12.95million people in November, up 11.2% year-on-year.This was the fastest growth recorded since Decemberlast year, according to data from the DirectorateGeneral of Civil Aviation (DGCA).
Domestic passenger traffic growth in November wasled by SpiceJet, which carried two million passengers inthe month, a jump of 43% year-on-year, while India’slargest airline IndiGo carried six million passengers, up21%.
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Go Air’s passenger traffic increased 39.5% to 1.4 million, while that of Air India increased by 10% to 1.5million.
GoAir and SpiceJet’s passenger load factor rose by 10 percentage points and 3 percentage points,respectively, to 93% each.
Vistara, Air Asia and Air India also recorded higher passenger load factors in November at 84%, 87% and 83%respectively.
The jump in air passenger volumes have also come as the combined capacity of airlines rebounded recentlyafter dropping in the wake of the closure of Jet Airways in April.
The market share of no-frills airlines IndiGo and SpiceJet increased to 47.5% and 16.1% respectively, inNovember.
GoAir had a market share of 11%, while Tata group’s joint venture airlines Air Asia India and Vistara hadmarket shares of 6.8% and 5.9% respectively. Air India’s market share has remained at 12% since the start ofthe year.
Retail inflation gallops to 5.54% in NovemberIndia's retail inflation rate in November stood at 5.54 percent, according to data released by the CentralStatistics Office (CSO). Retail inflation for October stood at 4.62 percent in October.
Food prices grew 10.01 percent in November, against 7.89 percent in October. Inflation rate in cereals andproducts stood at 3.7 percent against 2.16 percent a month ago. Vegetables inflation for November stood at36 percent against 26 percent in October.
Core inflation (excluding food and oil) remained unchanged at 3.5 percent. Pulses and products recorded aninflation of 13.94 percent in November against 11.72 percent in October.
In its December policy review, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) maintained status quo, for the first time thisyear, on higher inflation expectations even as economic growth is likely to weaken going ahead.
The RBI also revised downwards its GDP growth target for current financial year from 6.1 percent in theOctober policy to 5 percent.
Data released just days before the MPC meeting showed that GDP growth rate in July-September quarterslipped to six-year low of 4.5 percent on the back of weak consumer demand and slow manufacturingactivity.
Government may impose anti-dumping duty on a chemical from five countriesThe government may impose anti-dumping duty on a chemical used in polyester fibres and films, importedfrom five countries as the commerce ministry has launched an investigation for the same.
The ministry's investigation arm DGTR has initiated the probe into an alleged dumping of “Mono EthyleneGlycol” originating in or exported from Kuwait, Oman, Saudi Arabia, UAE and Singapore, following acomplaint from a domestic company.
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Reliance industries filed an application on behalf of domestic industry before the DGTR for initiation of theinvestigation.
According to a notification of the Directorate general of Trade Remedies (DGTR), the company has requestedfor imposition of anti-dumping duties on the imports.
India Glycols Limited has also supported the application.
It said that the authority has prima facie found that there is sufficient evidence of dumping of the chemicalfrom these countries.
Hero MotoCorp plans to launch BS-VI upgrades of ten bikes, scooters by FebThe country's largest two-wheeler maker Hero MotoCorp plans to drive in BS-VI upgrades of around tenproducts, including five top-selling bikes and scooters by February next year, as it aims to upgrade its productportfolio well before the deadline of April, 1 2020, according to sources.
The two wheeler major plans to showcase the upgraded products at an event in February 2020 at its R&Dcentre (Centre of Innovation and Technology), in Jaipur.
Within the next 4-8 weeks, the company will launch around ten BS-VI products including its key products suchas Splendor, HF Deluxe, Glamour motorcycles and Maestro Edge scooter.
Hero MotoCorp has already commenced the retail sales of its first BS-VI motorcycle, the Splendor iSmart inNovember 2019.
The transition to the higher emission norms for the company is being driven at its R&D centre in Jaipur, whichwas commissioned in March 2016.
Since then, Hero has further enhanced its in-house R&D capabilities by setting-up the Hero Tech CenterGmbH, near Munich in Germany.
Besides, the BS-VI transition, the company's is also focusing on a range of new premium products andaccessories to increase its market share in such verticals.
Ashok Leyland appoints Vipin Sondhi as CEO, MD for five yearsAshok Leyland Ltd on Thursday said it has appointed Vipin Sondhi as chief executive officer (CEO) andmanaging director (MD) of the automobile company starting 12 December 2019. The announcement comesafter over a year of former CEO Vinod Dasari’s resignation in November 2018.
Sondhi will head the company for the next five years, with his term ending on 11 December 2024. Theappointment is subject to the approval of shareholders, the company said in a regulatory filing.
Navin Fluorine plans capex at Dahej, GujaratNavin Fluorine International is planning a capex program at Dahej (Gujarat) through a wholly ownedsubsidiary with an estimated aggregate capital outlay of over Rs. 450 crores over the next 3-4 years.
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Board has initially approved capital expenditure of ~Rs 90cr for site development and related infrastructureon approx. 74 acres of land for greenfield projects at Dahej (Gujarat) through a wholly owned subsidiary, tobe incorporated, details of which are annexed. The said capital expenditure will be funded by the Companyout of its internal accruals.
The development of the infrastructure will enable the Company to set up various future greenfield projects influorochemicals. Each of these projects will be separately approved by the Board over a period of time andwe shall update all in the due course.The Company currently has manufacturing units at Surat (Gujarat) and Dewas (Madhya Pradesh).
Biocon & Equillium Expand Exclusive licensing agreement for Itolizumab to include Australia and NewZealandBiocon and Equillium Inc. to develop products to treat severe autoimmune and inflammatory disorders, todayannounced that they have expanded their collaboration and license agreement for itolizumab to grantEquillium exclusive rights for developing and commercializing itolizumab in Australia and New Zealand.
Equillium had originally secured exclusive rights to develop and commercialize Biocon’s novel biologic,itolizumab, for the U.S. and Canada markets, in May 2017.
“Biocon is pleased with the development progress of itolizumab achieved by Equillium so far and has agreedto include Australia and New Zealand within the scope of the licensing agreement. As an innovation-ledorganization we are committed to bring novel therapeutics to the market to address unmet patient needsacross the world. We look forward to our continued partnership with Equillium as they develop this moleculefurther for the treatment of severe autoimmune and inflammatory disorders,” said Siddharth Mittal, CEO andJoint Managing Director, Biocon.
Hikal’s Panoli plant received EIR from US FDAHikal rallied more than 12 percent as its Panoli plant received Establishment Inspection Report (EIR) from theUS health regulator.
The pharmaceutical manufacturing facility at Panoli in Gujarat was recently inspected by the US Food andDrug Administration (US FDA) in compliance with their requirements.
The five-day detailed inspection was carried out during the period September 9-13 this year.
The inspection confirmed the site to be compliant with the principles and guidelines of Current GoodManufacturing Practices (CGMP), it added.
Electronics Manufacturers Urges Indian Govt to Review New Export Incentive SchemeThe new export incentive scheme under Merchandise Export from India Scheme (MEIS), which cuts theexport incentive by half from the existing 4%, has received a lot of criticism from the electronicsmanufacturers in the country.
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Taking about the latest decision, the Chinese smartphone manufacturer, Xiaomi said that the government’smove on export incentives will have a drastic impact on the business, threaten ongoing operations and futureinvestments. The company further said that it will have a negative impact on the overall export potential forthe electronics industry from India. Xiaomi, which accounts for 50% of all online smartphone sales in India,has invested over $2 Bn in India and has recently started exporting electronic products to Nepal andBangladesh.
The electronic product makers body MAIT (manufacturers’ association of information technology), also urgedthe government to restore the 4-5% incentive under the MEIS.
Key U.S. IndicesDow 28,132 221 0.79%S&P 500 3,169 27 0.86%Nasdaq 8,717 63 0.73%
Wall Street Surges On Trade DealKey U.S. Indices surged to new highs Thursday on reports that the U.S. and China had reached at trade deal toavoid new tariffs due on Sunday, and roll back existing levies, in exchange for purchases of Americanagricultural products.
Both the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 closed at new intraday highs while, Dow Jones Industrial Average couldonly make a new intra-day high.
The Dow rose 0.79%, the S&P 500 about 0.86% and the Nasdaq Composite more than 0.70%.
What happened?The president said on Twitter Thursday that the U.S. and China were nearing a “big deal” that could avoidfresh tariffs, planned to go in effect Dec. 15, and potentially roll back some existing duties, sending U.S. stockswithin reach of record levels.
Stocks retreated from those intraday records, but again drifted higher after Bloomberg reported that aninterim “phase-one” agreement had been reached, and awaited signature from the White House.
Put off for later discussions are knotty issues such as longstanding U.S. complaints over the vast web ofsubsidies ranging from cheap electricity to low-cost loans that China has used to build its industrial might.
An earlier report from the Wall Street Journal indicated U.S. trade negotiators had offered to cancel newChina tariffs and reduce existing levies on Chinese goods by up to 50% on $360 billion worth of imports.
The Thursday trade optimism came after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged on Wednesdaywhile expressing optimism about U.S. economic health.
ECB holds patOn Thursday the European Central Bank decided to keep its main deposit rate at negative 0.5%, whilemaintaining its rate of asset purchases at €20 billion a month, as widely expected by analysts. The ECBmeeting was the first presided over by new President Christine Lagarde.
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Easy money environmentWe’re in an easy money environment, thanks to Jerome Powell, Christine Lagarde and central bankersaround the world.
In the U.S., We’re not going to get any hikes in 2020 and at least for the first half of next year. The Fed isgoing to be buying assets hand over fist.
The New York Federal Reserve said on Thursday it would step up the amount of funds it would inject into themulti trillion dollar repo market to help investors get through the end of year period, when banks are lesswilling to lend out their cash.
Economic dataIn U.S. economic data, new unemployment claims jumped by 49,000 to 252,000 during the week ended Dec.7, the Labour Department said Thursday, the highest level since Sept. 2017, though the data was likelyaffected by the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday.
Wholesale price inflation remained tame, with the producer-price index unchanged in November, with coreproducer prices, which strips out volatile energy and food prices, falling to a three-year low of 1.3%.
Other marketsThe yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note surged 10 basis points to 1.90% as investors monitored ECB andtrade developments.
West Texas Intermediate crude on the New York Mercantile Exchange gained 64 cents, or 1.1%, to $59.40 abarrel, after a 0.7% decline on Wednesday.
The U.S. dollar, as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar Index, was virtually unchanged at 97.44, against a basketof a half-dozen currency peers.
Gold fell $2.70 to $1,472.30 an ounce in New York, a reflection of declining trade tensions.
European indices rose across the board with the UK's FTSE 100 leading the larger indices with a 0.79% gains,helped by exit polls that showed BorisJohnson’s Conservative Party was on course to secure a large majorityof 86seats,in the House of Commons. The German Dax rallied 0.57% and the Stoxx 600 gained 0.33%.
Conservatives headed for a big win in UKBrexit seemed to be firmly back on track Thursday after an initial exit poll suggested his Conservative Partywas on course to secure a large majority -- 86 seats -- in the House of Commons.
The exit poll, conducted for the UK's main broadcasters, predicted the Conservatives would win 368 seats,well ahead of Labour's 191. The Scottish National Party is projected to win 55 seats, with the LiberalDemocrats securing 13.
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If confirmed by the official counts in the next few hours, those numbers represent the best results for theConservatives since Margaret Thatcher's win in 1987 -- and the worst Labour result in more than 40 years.
Results in line with the exit polls should make it easy for the Prime Minister to pass his Brexit deal throughParliament. He will then be able to finally take the United Kingdom out of the European Union -- more thanthree years after the country voted to leave the bloc.
If Labour's result is confirmed, Jeremy Corbyn's future as the leader of the party will likely be questioned.
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DATA & EVENTS
OPEN TRADING CALLS
NOTE: ALL TRADING RECOMMENDATIONS GIVEN BY PCG TEAM ARE ON REAL TIME BASIS. A TRADING RECOMMENDATIONSHOULD BE CONSIDERED CLOSED OR SQUARED OFF AS AND WHEN A STOPLOSS OR TARGET IS TOUCHED IN INTRADAYTRADING. DO NOT WAIT FOR TARGET ACHIEVED OR STOPLOSS MESSAGE TO CLOSE THE POSITIONS. REFER JAMMOON FORTIMELY ENTRY AND EXIT FROM RECOMMENDATIONS.
No. Reco Date Company Name Reco Cost SL Target
1. 06/12/19 PIDILITIND DEC FUTURE BUY 1325-1335 1315 1362
2. 09/12/19 ABFRL (E-MARGIN) BUY 219-226 216 246
3. 11/12/19 BAJAJ-AUTO DEC FUTURE BUY 3278-3260 3245 3340
4. 12/12/19 NMDC DEC 115 CALL BUY 2.7 1.5 4.5
5. 12/12/19 SAIL DEC 40 CALL BUY 1.45 0.6 3
6. 12/12/19 NIFTY IndExpress DEC FUTURE BUY 12000-12045 11950 12190
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LIST OF NIFTY STOCKS
COMPANY CLOSE R2 R1 PIVOT S1 S2
NIFTY 50 11972 12042 12007 11970 11935 11899
ADANIPORTS 372 379 376 373 370 368
ASIANPAINT 1747 1769 1758 1743 1732 1717
AXISBANK 721 731 726 720 716 710
BAJAJ-AUTO 3258 3293 3275 3266 3249 3239
BAJAJFINSV 9170 9248 9209 9145 9106 9042
BAJFINANCE 4048 4096 4072 4041 4017 3986
BHARTIARTL 438 447 442 439 435 432
BPCL 492 504 498 492 486 480
BRITANNIA 3080 3113 3096 3063 3047 3013
CIPLA 460 469 465 458 454 448
COALINDIA 190 194 192 189 188 185
DRREDDY 2905 2933 2919 2905 2890 2876
EICHERMOT 21950 22397 22173 21878 21654 21358
GAIL 119 122 120 119 117 115
GRASIM 776 784 780 775 771 765
HCLTECH 536 552 544 540 531 527
HDFC 2317 2340 2329 2316 2305 2292
HDFCBANK 1266 1279 1273 1263 1256 1246
HEROMOTOCO 2333 2365 2349 2328 2312 2291
HINDALCO 201 208 205 201 198 194
HINDUNILVR 2007 2047 2027 2015 1995 1982
ICICIBANK 536 541 538 534 531 527
INDUSINDBK 1441 1467 1454 1438 1424 1408
INFRATEL 252 264 258 253 247 242
INFY 702 729 715 707 694 686
IOC 128 130 129 127 126 124
ITC 239 241 240 239 237 236
JSWSTEEL 256 262 259 254 251 247
KOTAKBANK 1715 1744 1729 1706 1691 1668
LT 1282 1292 1287 1278 1273 1263
M&M 511 517 514 511 508 505
MARUTI 7000 7078 7039 7007 6968 6937
NESTLEIND 14208 14328 14268 14173 14113 14017
NTPC 115 116 115 114 114 113
ONGC 126 130 128 127 125 124
POWERGRID 185 192 188 185 181 177
RELIANCE 1571 1584 1578 1567 1561 1550
SBIN 321 329 325 319 316 310
SUNPHARMA 433 441 437 434 430 426
TATAMOTORS 173 183 178 170 165 158
TATASTEEL 418 429 424 415 409 401
TCS 2003 2123 2063 2024 1963 1924
TECHM 753 771 762 757 748 744
TITAN 1188 1200 1194 1186 1180 1171
ULTRACEMCO 3991 4053 4022 4003 3972 3952
UPL 570 590 580 571 560 551
VEDL 144 148 146 142 140 137
WIPRO 240 242 241 240 238 237
YESBANK 45 52 48 46 42 40
ZEEL 283 292 287 282 278 273
SUPPORT - RESISTANCE
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