data to: 05 july 2015 key messages. diagnostic indicators ......data to: 05 july 2015 **based on the...

GP In Hours Syndromic Surveillance System:

England

08 July 2015

Key messages There was an increase in GP consultations for heat/sunstroke during week 27 (figure 23), peaking at 36 consultations on Wednesday 1st July to participating practices, in line with the high temperatures. Allergic rhinitis consultations remain elevated, particularly in the 5-14 year old age group.

In This Issue:

Key messages.

Diagnostic indicators at a glance.

GP practices and denominator population.

National syndromic indicators.

Notes and further information.

Appendix.

Diagnostic indicators at a glance:

GP practices and denominator population:

Data to: 05 July 2015

**based on the average number of practices and denominator population in the reporting working week.

Year Week GP Practices Reporting** Population size**

2015 27 4064 30.2 million

Year: 2015 Week: 27

Indicator Trend Level

Upper respiratory tract infection decreasing below baseline levels

Influenza-like illness no trend similar to baseline levels

Pharyngitis decreasing similar to baseline levels

Scarlet fever no trend above baseline levels

Lower respiratory tract infection decreasing below baseline levels

Pneumonia decreasing similar to baseline levels

Gastroenteritis no trend similar to baseline levels

Vomiting no trend above baseline levels

Diarrhoea decreasing above baseline levels

Severe asthma no trend similar to baseline levels

Wheeze no trend above baseline levels

Allergic rhinitis increasing

Conjunctivitis no trend similar to baseline levels

Mumps no trend below baseline levels

Measles no trend below baseline levels

Rubella no trend similar to baseline levels

Pertussis no trend above baseline levels

Chickenpox decreasing similar to baseline levels

Herpes zoster no trend similar to baseline levels

Cellulitis increasing above baseline levels

Impetigo decreasing below baseline levels

Heat/sunstroke increasing above baseline levels

Insect Bites increasing above baseline levels

A Heat-Health Watch system operates in England from 1 June to 15 September each year. As part of the Heatwave Plan for England, the PHE Real-time Syndromic Surveillance team will be routinely monitoring the public health impact of hot weather using syndromic surveillance system during this period. Heat-health watch level (current reporting week): level 1-3 Summer preparedness/Heat wave action http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/heathealth/

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/heathealth/

GP In Hours

08 July 2015.

Page 2.

1: Upper respiratory

tract infection (URTI)

Daily incidence rate (and 7-day moving average*) per 100,000 population (all England, all ages).

2: Influenza-like illness

(ILI)

Daily incidence rates (and 7-day moving average*) per 100,000 population (all England, all ages).

3: Pharyngitis or scarlet fever

Daily incidence rates (and 7-day moving average*) per 100,000 population (all England, all ages).

* 7-day moving average adjusted for bank holidays.

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

06/07/14 03/08/14 31/08/14 28/09/14 26/10/14 23/11/14 21/12/14 18/01/15 15/02/15 15/03/15 12/04/15 10/05/15 07/06/15 05/07/15

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weekend bank holiday 7 day mov avg baseline (2010-13) URTI

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

06/07/14 03/08/14 31/08/14 28/09/14 26/10/14 23/11/14 21/12/14 18/01/15 15/02/15 15/03/15 12/04/15 10/05/15 07/06/15 05/07/15

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weekend bank holiday 7 day mov avg baseline (2010-13) Influenza-like illness

0

5

10

15

20

25

06/07/14 03/08/14 31/08/14 28/09/14 26/10/14 23/11/14 21/12/14 18/01/15 15/02/15 15/03/15 12/04/15 10/05/15 07/06/15 05/07/15

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weekend bank holiday 7 day mov avg baseline (2010-13) Pharyngitis or scarlet fever

Year: 2015 Week: 27

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

06/07/14 03/08/14 31/08/14 28/09/14 26/10/14 23/11/14 21/12/14 18/01/15 15/02/15 15/03/15 12/04/15 10/05/15 07/06/15 05/07/15

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weekend bank holiday 7 day mov avg baseline (2012-14) Scarlet Fever

GP In Hours

08 July 2015.

Page 3.

4: Scarlet fever

Daily incidence rate (and 7-day moving average*) per 100,000 population (all England, based on a population denominator of approximately 5.5 million patients).

4a: Scarlet fever by

age

Average daily incidence rate by week per 100,000 population (all England, based on a population denominator of approximately 5.5 million patients).


5: Lower respiratory tract infection (LRTI)


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27

2014 2015

Av

era

ge

da

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r 1

00

,00

0 r

eg

iste

red

GP

pa

tie

nts

Year - Week

Under 1 Year 1 to 4 5 to 14 15 to 44 45 to 64 65 to 74 75 plus All ages

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

06/07/14 03/08/14 31/08/14 28/09/14 26/10/14 23/11/14 21/12/14 18/01/15 15/02/15 15/03/15 12/04/15 10/05/15 07/06/15 05/07/15

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weekend bank holiday 7 day mov avg baseline (2010-13) LRTI

Year: 2015 Week: 27

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

06/07/14 03/08/14 31/08/14 28/09/14 26/10/14 23/11/14 21/12/14 18/01/15 15/02/15 15/03/15 12/04/15 10/05/15 07/06/15 05/07/15

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weekend bank holiday 7 day mov avg baseline (2009-13) Pneumonia

7: Gastroenteritis


8: Vomiting


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

06/07/14 03/08/14 31/08/14 28/09/14 26/10/14 23/11/14 21/12/14 18/01/15 15/02/15 15/03/15 12/04/15 10/05/15 07/06/15 05/07/15

Da

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weekend bank holiday 7 day mov avg baseline (2009-13) Vomiting

0

5

10

15

20

25

06/07/14 03/08/14 31/08/14 28/09/14 26/10/14 23/11/14 21/12/14 18/01/15 15/02/15 15/03/15 12/04/15 10/05/15 07/06/15 05/07/15

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weekend bank holiday 7 day mov avg baseline (2009-13) Gastroenteritis

GP In Hours

08 July 2015.

Page 4.

6: Pneumonia



Year: 2015 Week: 27

GP In Hours

08 July 2015.

Page 5.

9: Diarrhoea



0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

06/07/14 03/08/14 31/08/14 28/09/14 26/10/14 23/11/14 21/12/14 18/01/15 15/02/15 15/03/15 12/04/15 10/05/15 07/06/15 05/07/15

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weekend bank holiday 7 day mov avg baseline (2009-13) Diarrhoea

9a. Diarrhoea by age

8a: Vomiting by age

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27

2014 2015

Av

era

ge

da

ily

ra

te p

er

10

0,0

00

re

gis

tere

d G

P p

ati

en

ts

Year - Week


Average daily incidence rate by week per 100,000 population (all England)


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27

2014 2015

Av

era

ge

da

ily

ra

te p

er

10

0,0

00

re

gis

tere

d G

P p

ati

en

ts

Year - Week


Year: 2015 Week: 27

GP In Hours

08 July 2015.

Page 6.

10: Severe asthma


10a: Severe asthma by age


11: Wheeze



0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

06/07/14 03/08/14 31/08/14 28/09/14 26/10/14 23/11/14 21/12/14 18/01/15 15/02/15 15/03/15 12/04/15 10/05/15 07/06/15 05/07/15

Da

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weekend bank holiday 7 day mov avg baseline (2009-13) Severe Asthma

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

06/07/14 03/08/14 31/08/14 28/09/14 26/10/14 23/11/14 21/12/14 18/01/15 15/02/15 15/03/15 12/04/15 10/05/15 07/06/15 05/07/15

Da

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r 100,0

00 p

op

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n

weekend bank holiday 7 day mov avg baseline (2009-13) Wheeze

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27

2014 2015

Av

era

ge

da

ily

ra

te p

er

10

0,0

00

re

gis

tere

d G

P p

ati

en

ts

Year - Week


Year: 2015 Week: 27

GP In Hours

08 July 2015.

Page 7.

12: Allergic rhinitis

Daily incidence rate

(and 7-day moving

average*) per 100,000

population (all England,

all ages).

12a: Allergic rhinitis by age


13: Conjunctivitis


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

06/07/14 03/08/14 31/08/14 28/09/14 26/10/14 23/11/14 21/12/14 18/01/15 15/02/15 15/03/15 12/04/15 10/05/15 07/06/15 05/07/15

Da

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weekend bank holiday 7 day mov avg Allergic Rhinitis

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

06/07/14 03/08/14 31/08/14 28/09/14 26/10/14 23/11/14 21/12/14 18/01/15 15/02/15 15/03/15 12/04/15 10/05/15 07/06/15 05/07/15

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weekend bank holiday 7 day mov avg baseline (2009-13) Conjunctivitis


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27

2014 2015

Av

era

ge

da

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ra

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10

0,0

00

re

gis

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d G

P p

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en

ts

Year - Week


Year: 2015 Week: 27

GP In Hours

Page 8.

14: Mumps


(and 7-day moving



all ages).

15: Measles


16: Rubella


08 July 2015.


0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

0.45

0.50

06/07/14 03/08/14 31/08/14 28/09/14 26/10/14 23/11/14 21/12/14 18/01/15 15/02/15 15/03/15 12/04/15 10/05/15 07/06/15 05/07/15

Da

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00 p

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weekend bank holiday 7 day mov avg baseline (2009-13) Mumps

0.00

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

0.08

0.09

0.10

06/07/14 03/08/14 31/08/14 28/09/14 26/10/14 23/11/14 21/12/14 18/01/15 15/02/15 15/03/15 12/04/15 10/05/15 07/06/15 05/07/15

Da

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00 p

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weekend bank holiday 7 day mov avg baseline (2009-13) Rubella

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

06/07/14 03/08/14 31/08/14 28/09/14 26/10/14 23/11/14 21/12/14 18/01/15 15/02/15 15/03/15 12/04/15 10/05/15 07/06/15 05/07/15

Da

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weekend bank holiday 7 day mov avg baseline (2009-13) Measles

Year: 2015 Week: 27

GP In Hours

08 July 2015.

Page 9.

17: Pertussis


(and 7-day moving



all ages).

18: Chickenpox


19: Herpes zoster



0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

06/07/14 03/08/14 31/08/14 28/09/14 26/10/14 23/11/14 21/12/14 18/01/15 15/02/15 15/03/15 12/04/15 10/05/15 07/06/15 05/07/15

Da

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weekend bank holiday 7 day mov avg baseline (2009-13) Pertussis

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

06/07/14 03/08/14 31/08/14 28/09/14 26/10/14 23/11/14 21/12/14 18/01/15 15/02/15 15/03/15 12/04/15 10/05/15 07/06/15 05/07/15

Da

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weekend bank holiday 7 day mov avg baseline (2009-13) Herpes Zoster

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

06/07/14 03/08/14 31/08/14 28/09/14 26/10/14 23/11/14 21/12/14 18/01/15 15/02/15 15/03/15 12/04/15 10/05/15 07/06/15 05/07/15

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weekend bank holiday 7 day mov avg baseline (2009-13) Chickenpox

Year: 2015 Week: 27

GP In Hours

08 July 2015.

Page 10.

20: Cellulitis


(and 7-day moving



all ages).

21: Impetigo


22: Intentionally left blank

Intentionally left blank.


0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

06/07/14 03/08/14 31/08/14 28/09/14 26/10/14 23/11/14 21/12/14 18/01/15 15/02/15 15/03/15 12/04/15 10/05/15 07/06/15 05/07/15

Da

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weekend bank holiday 7 day mov avg baseline (2009-13) Impetigo

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

06/07/14 03/08/14 31/08/14 28/09/14 26/10/14 23/11/14 21/12/14 18/01/15 15/02/15 15/03/15 12/04/15 10/05/15 07/06/15 05/07/15

Da

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weekend bank holiday 7 day mov avg baseline (2009-13) Cellulitis

Year: 2015 Week: 27

GP In Hours

08 July 2015.

Page 11.

23: Heat/sunstroke


(and 7-day moving



all ages).

24: Insect Bites


(and 7-day moving



all ages).

25: Intentionally left blank

Intentionally left blank.


Year: 2015 Week: 27

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

06/07/14 03/08/14 31/08/14 28/09/14 26/10/14 23/11/14 21/12/14 18/01/15 15/02/15 15/03/15 12/04/15 10/05/15 07/06/15 05/07/15

Da

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weekend bank holiday 7 day mov avg baseline (2012-14) Insect bite

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

06/07/14 03/08/14 31/08/14 28/09/14 26/10/14 23/11/14 21/12/14 18/01/15 15/02/15 15/03/15 12/04/15 10/05/15 07/06/15 05/07/15

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weekend bank holiday 7 day mov avg baseline (2009-13) Heat stroke

GP In Hours

08 July 2015.

Page 12.

Notes and further

information

The Public Health England GP in hours surveillance system is a syndromic surveillance system monitoring community-based morbidity recorded by GP practices.

GP consultation data are analysed on a daily basis to identify national and regional trends. A statistical algorithm underpins each system, routinely identifying activity that has increased significantly or is statistically significantly high for the time of year. Results from these daily analyses are assessed by the ReSST, along with analysis by age group, and anything deemed of public health importance is alerted by the team.

This system captures anonymised GP morbidity data from two GP clinical software systems, EMIS, from version 1 of the QSurveillance® database, and TPP SystmOne.

Historic baselines are smoothed to remove bank holiday effects. Data from 2009 has been excluded for selected indicators which were affected by the H1N1 influenza pandemic. No baseline is currently included for allergic rhinitis.

The appendix illustrates weekly GP in hours consultation data for influenza-like illness (ILI). Each PHE Centre is represented by a thematic map showing its constituent local authorities (LA) coloured according to the weekly consultation rate of ILI per 100,000 population. LAs where less than 5 cases of ILI have been reported are supressed and illustrated as no data.

The maps on the following pages contains Ordnance Survey data © Crown copyright and database right 2014. Contains National Statistics data © Crown copyright and database right 2014.

Acknowledgements: We thank and acknowledge the University of Nottingham, ClinRisk® and the contribution of

EMIS and EMIS practices. Data source: version 1 of the QSurveillance® database. We thank TPP, ResearchOne and the SystmOne GP practices contributing to this surveillance system.

GP In Hours Syndromic Surveillance System Bulletin.

Produced by: PHE Real-time Syndromic Surveillance Team 6th Floor, 5 St Philip’s Place, Birmingham, B3 2PW

Tel: 0344 225 3560 > Option 4 > Option 2 Fax: 0121 236 2215 Web: https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/syndromic -surveillance-systems-and

-analyses

Contact ReSST: [email protected]

Year: 2015 Week: 27
mailto:[email protected]?subject=GP%20In%20Hours%20Bulletinmailto:[email protected]?subject=GP%20In%20Hours%20Bulletin

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