data snapshot series 1.0 october 2014 data snapshot lake county
TRANSCRIPT
Data SnapShot Series 1.0October 2014
DATA SNAPSHOTLake County
Table of contents
Introduction01Demography02
Economy03Labor Market04
Purpose
About Lake County
01introductio
n
4
Purpose
This document provides information and data about Lake County that can be used to guide local decision-making activities.
The Data SnapShot showcases a variety of demographic, economic and labor market information that local leaders, community organizations and others can use to gain a better perspective on current conditions and opportunities in their county.
To strengthen the value and usability of the information, we showcase the data using a variety of visual tools such as charts, graphs and tables. In addition, we offer key points about the data as a way of assisting the user with the interpretation of the information presented.
Finally, short takeaway messages are offered at the end of each section in order to highlight some of the more salient findings.
Introduction
section 01
5
About Lake CountyIntroduction
section 01
County Background
Established 1837
CountySeat
Crown Point
Area 627 sq. mi.
NeighboringCounties
Jasper, INNewton, IN
Porter, INCook, IL
Kankakee, ILWill, IL
Population pyramids
Population change
Race
Ethnicity
Educational attainment
Takeaways
02demograp
hy
7
Population change
Components of Population Change, 2000-2012
Total Change 5,572
Natural Increase 26,367
International Migration
4,436
Domestic Migration
-22,404
The total population is projected to increase by 2.9 percent between 2012 and 2020.
Demography
Sources: STATSIndiana, U.S. Census Bureau – 2000 Decennial Census, 2010 Decennial Census, 2012 Estimates, Estimates of the Components of Resident Population Change
section 02
The total population increased by 1.9 percent between 2000 and 2012. The major contributor to that expansion was natural increase (births minus deaths over that span of time) with a net growth of nearly 26,000 persons.
Data on domestic migration (the difference between the number of people moving out of the county versus moving in) shows that out-migration outpaced in-migration by nearly 22,000 people. On the other hand, international migration had a net increase of over 4,400, indicating that the county experienced an influx of new people from outside the U.S.
484,564
496,005 493,618
507,724
2020
2012
2010
2000
Total population projections
8
0-9
10-19
20-29
30-39
40-49
50-59
60-69
70-79
80+
9 6 3 0 3 6 9Percent of the Population
Ag
e C
oh
ort
Population pyramidsPopulation pyramids are visual representations of the age distribution of the population by gender.
While the male to female ratio of the population did not change dramatically between 2000 and 2012, the distribution of people across the various age categories did change over the two periods of time.
Demography
Source: U.S. Census Bureau – 2000 Decennial Census and 2012 Annual Population Estimates
section 02
The percent of people under 50 years old has decreased for both males and females over the 2000-2012 period. Also, the number of 50 and over now stands at nearly 169,000 people (about 34 percent of the population, up from 28 percent in 2000).
Male
Female
2012
00-09
10-19
20-29
30-39
40-49
50-59
60-69
70-79
80+
9 6 3 0 3 6 9
Percent of the Population
Ag
e C
oh
ort
2000
Male
Female
9
Race
The number of non-White residents in Lake County increased by five percentage points between 2000 and 2012.
While every race other than White experienced a numerical increase, the population of Asian, Other and Mixed Descent races gained the most people, expanding from 33 percent to 38 percent of the total population between 2000 and 2012.
Demography
Race Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau – 2000 Decennial Census and 2012 ACS
section 02
White67%
2000Black
Asian
Native
Other
Mixed
White62%
2012Black
Asian
Native
Other
Mixed
10
EthnicityHispanics are individuals of any race whose ancestry is from Mexico, Puerto Rico, Cuba, Spain, the Dominican Republic or any other Spanish-speaking Central or South American country.
There were 59,128 residing in Lake County in 2000. This figure expanded to 82,652 by 2012—a 39.7 percent increase.
As a result, Hispanics now make up 17 percent of the overall population (versus 12 percent in 2000).
Demography
Source: U.S. Census Bureau – 2000 Decennial Census and 2012 ACS
section 02
17%
12%
Hispanics - 2000
Hispanics - 2012
11
Educational attainment
Educational attainment for adults over 18 in Lake County is
increasing.
The proportion of adults (18 years of age and older) with a high school
education or more improved from 80 percent in 2000 to 86 percent by
2012.
The percent with less than a high school education fell by six percent
over the 2000-2012 period (from 20 percent to 14 percent). On the other
hand, those with some college education grew from 28 percent to
32 percent.
The number of adults with a bachelor’s degree or more stood at
18 percent in 2012, a slight increase compared to 2000.
Demography
Source: U.S. Census Bureau – 2000 Decennial Census and 2012 ACS
section 02
No High School14%
High School36%
Some College
32%
College18%
2012
No High School20%
High School37%
Some College
28%
College15%
2000
12
Takeaways
The population of Lake County is expected to grow modestly over the next few years, and if past trends hold, that increase will be largely due to natural increase (more births than deaths).
While Lake County’s population has been growing over the 2000-2012 period, it has also been aging. In addition, its domestic migration has declined by nearly 22,000, suggesting that young individuals and those of prime working age (20-39 years of age) are moving out of the county at a faster pace than they are moving in.
The educational level of the population has increased and the county has become more diverse by race and ethnicity since 2000.
In order to achieve a balanced ratio of working-age individuals and dependents (minors and elderly), Lake County should explore what mix of services and amenities will retain and attract educated young adults.
Demography
section 02
Establishments
Industries
Occupations
Income and poverty
Takeaways
03economy
14
Establishments
Components of Change for Establishments
Total Change (2000-11) 16,143
Natural Change (births minus deaths)
15,755
Net Migration 388
The number of establishments in Lake County doubled between 2000 and 2011.
The rapid growth of establishments was largely due to natural change. That is, 35,600 establishments were launched in the county between 2000-2011 while 19,800 closed, resulting in a gain of 15,755 establishments.
Economy
Source: National Establishment Time Series (NETS) – 2011 Database
section 03
An establishment is a physical business
location. Branches, standalones and
headquarters are all considered types of
establishments.
Definition of Company Stages
0 12 3
4
Self-employed
2-9 employees
10-99employees
100-499employees
500+employees
15
Number of establishments by stage/employment category
Economy
Source: National Establishment Time Series (NETS) – 2011 Database
section 03
2000 2011
Stage Establishments Proportion Establishment
s Proportion
Stage 0 3,256 20% 10,058 30%
Stage 1 9,314 57% 18,911 58%
Stage 2 3,501 21% 3,260 10%
Stage 3 257 1% 256 1%
Stage 4 46 1% 32 1%
Total 16,374 100% 32,517 100%
16
Number of jobs by stage/employment category
Economy
Source: National Establishment Time Series (NETS) – 2011 Database
section 03
2000 2011Stage Jobs Proportion Jobs Proportion
Stage 0 3,256 1% 10,058 4%
Stage 1 35,916 16% 56,994 25%
Stage 2 87,716 39% 82,048 36%
Stage 3 43,486 19% 42,370 19%
Stage 4 56,055 25% 36,882 16%
Total 226,429 100% 228,352 100%
17
Amount of sales by stage/employment category
Economy
Source: National Establishment Time Series (NETS) – 2011 Database
section 03
2000 2011Stage Sales Proportion Sales Proportion
Stage 0 $319,631,826 1% $673,636,676 3%
Stage 1 $4,008,852,759 15% $4,719,109,243 21%
Stage 2 $9,024,364,231 34% $7,949,058,309 35%
Stage 3 $5,158,581,200 20% $5,877,793,166 26%
Stage 4 $7,734,249,838 29% $3,526,973,814 16%
Total$26,245,679,85
4 100% $22,746,571,208 100%
18
Top five industries in 2012
55.6 percent of jobs are tied to one of the top five industries in Lake County
Health Care and Social Assistance is the largest industry sector (34,824 jobs).
Accommodation and Food Services is the smallest of the top industry sectors with 18,124 jobs.
Economy
Source: Economic Modeling Specialists International (EMSI) – Complete Employment
section 03
Health Care & Social Assistance14.4%
Government11.9%
Retail Trade11.3%
Manufacturing10.5%
Accommodation & Food Services
7.5%
All Other Industries44.4%
19
Industry distribution and changeNAICS Code Description Jobs
2012% Change (2002-
2012)Earnings
201311 Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting 639 -10.9% $18,551
21Mining, Quarrying and Oil and Gas Extraction 176 -27.9% $107,293
22 Utilities 1,730 1.7% $126,47923 Construction 17,788 25.1% $85,91931-33 Manufacturing 25,290 -11.7% $107,53442 Wholesale Trade 6,076 -13.3% $66,94644-45 Retail Trade 27,407 -4.9% $26,11848-49 Transportation and Warehousing 10,842 20.7% $53,948
51 Information 1,935 -23.3% $43,244
52 Finance and Insurance 7,201 3.1% $42,46153 Real Estate and Rental and Leasing 8,339 23.7% $23,385
54Professional, Scientific and Technical Services 8,829 4.4% $46,116
55Management of Companies and Enterprises 1,793 36.8% $99,665
56 Administrative and Waste Management 11,827 1.0% $27,57761 Educational Services (Private) 4,541 56.9% $26,90762 Health Care and Social Assistance 34,824 20.1% $48,69971 Arts, Entertainment and Recreation 7,652 -17.1% $28,73072 Accommodation and Food Services 18,134 17.4% $15,376
81Other Services (except Public Administration) 18,049 25.9% $20,526
90 Government 28,830 -3.7% $48,73099 Unclassified Industry <10 - $54,835All Total 241,901 - $48,711
Economy
Source: Economic Modeling Specialists International (EMSI) – 2013.2 Complete Employment
section 03
20
Industry distribution and change
The largest employment gains in Lake County occurred in: Private Educational Services
(+56.9 percent) Management of Companies
and Enterprises (+36.8 percent)
The largest employment losses occurred in: Mining, Quarrying and Oil and
Gas Extraction (-27.9 percent) Information (-23.3 percent)
Economy
Source: Economic Modeling Specialists International (EMSI) – 2013.2 Complete Employment
section 03
Employment Increase
Employment Decrease
Changes in the top five industry sectors (2002-2012):
Health Care and Social Assistance
Accommodation and Food
Services
Government
Retail Trade
Manufacturing
21
Office & Administra-tive Support
13%
Sales & Related 13%
Food Preparation & Serving Related
8%
Transportation & Ma-terial Moving
8%
Production 7%
All Other Occupations53%
Top five occupations in 2012
The top five occupations in Lake County represent 47.3 percent of all jobs.
Office and Administrative Support and Sales and Related are the occupations with the largest number of workers.
Production occupations is the smallest of the top five occupations in the county (seven percent of jobs).
Economy
Source: Economic Modeling Specialists International (EMSI) – 2013.2 Complete Employment
section 03
22
SOC Description Jobs
2012% Change (2002-
2012)Hourly Earnings
201311 Management 10,733 7.4% $33.5013 Business and Financial Operations 7,811 12.3% $26.8615 Computer and Mathematical 1,903 -2.0% $28.8817 Architecture and Engineering 2,882 -3.4% $35.5619 Life, Physical and Social Science 1,440 16.7% $28.9921 Community and Social Service 3,070 9.1% $19.0023 Legal 1,730 1.9% $45.0325 Education, Training and Library 12,273 11.0% $20.72
27Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports and Media 4,752 7.3% $14.79
29 Health Care Practitioners and Technical 14,845 12.4% $32.6131 Health Care Support 7,494 25.0% $12.4733 Protective Service 5,396 -8.8% $17.4735 Food Preparation and Serving Related 19,388 9.6% $9.68
37Building and Grounds Cleaning Maintenance 8,978 11.4% $11.18
39 Personal Care and Service 15,346 42.0% $10.1541 Sales and Related 30,286 -0.6% $14.2243 Office and Administrative Support 30,468 -4.8% $15.1345 Farming, Fishing and Forestry 224 -10.4% $11.5147 Construction and Extraction 14,682 18.1% $25.8949 Installation, Maintenance and Repair 11,186 3.1% $22.6751 Production 15,967 -8.9% $20.7853 Transportation and Material Moving 18,194 1.0% $18.0155 Military 1,672 4.1% $19.3999 Unclassified 1,181 25.5% $11.18All Total 241,901 100% $18.91
Occupation distribution and change
Economy
Source: Economic Modeling Specialists International (EMSI) – 2013.2 Complete Employment
section 03
23
Occupation distribution and change
Economy
Source: Economic Modeling Specialists International (EMSI) – 2013.2 Complete Employment
section 03
The largest percentage gains in jobs in Lake County occurred in: Personal Care and Service
(+42 percent) Health Care Support (+25
percent)
The largest percentage loss in employment occurred in: Farming, Fishing and Forestry
(-10.4 percent) Production (-8.9 percent)
Changes in the top five occupations (2002-2012):
Food Preparation and Serving
Transportation and Material
Moving
Sales and Related
Office and Administrative
Production
Employment Increase
Employment Decrease
24
Income and poverty
2000 2006 2012
Total Population in Poverty
11.1% 16.7% 19.6%
Minors (up to age 17) in Poverty
15.6% 26.5% 31.3%
Real Median Income (2012)
$53,734
$52,327
$48,015
The median income in Lake County dipped by $5,700 between 2000 and 2012.
Both the total population in poverty and the number of minors in poverty increased.
The number of minors in poverty doubled between 2000 and 2012.
Economy
Source: U.S. Census Bureau – Small Area Income and Poverty Estimates (SAIPE)
section 03
25
Income and povertyMedian income in Lake County has decreased in recent years, while poverty has continued to increase.
Economy
Source: U.S. Census Bureau – Small Area Income and Poverty Estimates (SAIPE)
section 03
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
55,000
60,000
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Real M
edia
n Inco
me in
2012 (
dolla
rs)
Popula
tion in
Pove
rty
(perc
ent)Median Income
Minors in Poverty
All Ages in Poverty
26
Takeaways
All establishment growth in Lake County occurred in businesses having fewer than 10 employees. So, focusing on the needs of the self-employed (Stage 0) and start-ups (Stage 1) establishments may be worthwhile.
The food industry, health care, management, education and transportation are employment growth areas for Lake County. These are industries and occupations that demand workers with varying educational levels.
Median income has decreased and poverty has increased in Lake County since 2000.
Lake County might focus on policies and programs that strengthen high-growth Stage 2 firms since they employ several people and capture sizable sales.
Promoting job growth for occupations requiring educated workers could help retain adults with higher educational attainment and help increase median income.
Services targeted to poverty-stricken individuals should be considered given the dramatic rise in poverty, especially among children under 18 years old.
Economy
section 03
Labor force and unemployment
Laborshed
Commuteshed
Takeaways
04labor
market
28
Labor force and unemployment
2002 2012
Labor Force227,98
9220,79
3
Unemployment Rate
6.4% 9.2%
The labor force in Lake County decreased by 3.1 percent between 2002 and 2012.
This decrease is likely due to a rise in the number of individuals who are either officially unemployed or who have given up looking for a job.
Labor market
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics – Local Area Unemployment Statistics
section 04
29
Unemployment rateBetween 2002 and 2012, the unemployment rate in Lake County peaked at 10.9 percent in 2010.
Labor market
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics – Local Area Unemployment Statistics
section 04
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
3.6%
6.4%
5.2%
10.9%
9.2%
Year
Unem
plo
yment
Rate
(%
)
30
Commuteshed
A county’s commuteshed is the geographic area to which its work force travels to work.
Forty-one percent of employed residents in Lake County commute to jobs located outside of Lake County.
The top commuteshed counties for Lake County residents who work outside of the county are Cook County, Illinois, and Porter County, Indiana.
Labor market
Source: U.S. Census Bureau – Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics (LEHD)
section 04
83,806
Out-Commuters
120,585
Same Work/Home
Commuters Proportion
Cook, IL 39,960 19.6%
Porter, IN 11,061 5.4%
Marion, IN 5,295 2.6%
Will, IL 3,341 1.6%
DuPage, IL 3,156 1.5%
31
Laborshed
Commuters Proportion
Porter, IN 25,554 13.2%
Cook, IL 14,026 7.2%
La Porte, IN 4,685 2.4%
Jasper, IN 3,131 1.6%
Marion, IN 2,527 1.3%
Labor market
Source: U.S. Census Bureau – Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics (LEHD)
section 04
72,982
In-Commuters
120,585
Same Work/Home
A county’s laborshed is the geographic area from which it draws employees.
Thirty-eight percent of individuals working in Lake County commute from another county for work. Porter County, Indiana, and Cook County, Illinois, are the biggest sources of outside labor for Lake County.
Sixty-four percent of in-commuters reside in counties adjacent to Lake County; however, the fifth largest laborshed county is the Indianapolis metropolitan area (Marion County, Indiana).
32
Commuteshed in 2011Labor market
section 04
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, OTM, LEHD, PCRD
Eighty percent of Lake County’s working residents are employed either in Lake or Cook Counties. Another five percent commute to Porter, while an additional five percent travel to jobs in DuPage, Will, LaPorte or Marion CountiesCollectively, these seven counties represent 90 percent of the commuteshed for Lake County.
33
Laborshed in 2011Labor market
section 04
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, OTM, LEHD, PCRD
The bulk (80 percent) of Lake County’s workforce is
drawn from Lake and Porter Counties. Another five percent is drawn from
Laporte County in Indiana and Cook County in Illinois.
An additional five percent comes from Will County in
Illinois and Saint Joseph, Jasper and Marion Counties
in Indiana. Combined, the eight counties represent 90
percent of Lake County’s laborshed.
34
Takeaways
Lake County’s unemployment rate has increased since 2002. The majority of this increase occurred during the period of the Great Recession (approximately 2009—10).
Despite population increases, the county’s labor force has decreased since 2002, indicating that there may be an increasing number of individuals who are unemployed or are discouraged workers (workers who have given up trying to find a job).
Employees that work but do not live in Lake County tend to commute from surrounding counties. People who commute out of the county for work tend to travel to other metropolitan areas.
Lake County should assess if a major workforce development training effort should be targeted to the growing number of working age adults struggling to find jobs.
The laborshed and commuteshed data offer solid evidence of the value of pursuing economic and workforce development on a regional (multi-county) basis.
Labor market
section 04
35
Report ContributorsThis report was prepared by the Purdue Center for Regional Development in partnership with Purdue University Extension.
Labor market
section 04
Data AnalysisIndraneel Kumar, PhDAyoung Kim
Report AuthorsElizabeth DobisBo Beaulieu, PhD
Report DesignTyler WrightAdeline Jackson
FOR MORE INFORMATION
The Purdue Center for Regional Development (PCRD) seeks to pioneer new ideas and strategies that contribute to regional collaboration, innovation and prosperity.
The Purdue Extension Community Development (CD) Program works to strengthen the capacity of local leaders, residents and organizations to work together to develop and sustain strong, vibrant communities.
Please contact
Janet ReedCounty Extension Director/Community Development Educator
PCRDMann Hall, Suite 266Purdue University
OR