data reconciliation in lng tank farm allocation - nfogm · data reconciliation in lng tank farm ......
TRANSCRIPT
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Data Reconciliation in LNG Tank Farm Allocation
Helen LittleAccord Energy Solutions LtdAberdeen, UK
6th June 2016
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This talk focusses on issues encountered in using data reconciliation for LNG tank farm allocation
First, an introduction to the world’s largest
LNG storage facility
Explore why data reconciliation
was used within the allocation
Issues & lessons learned
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
LNGinventory(tonnes)
PV RV
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The world’s largest LNG facility is based in one of the world’s smallest countries, Qatar
In a population of just over 2 million,
only 16% are Qataris
Nearly 1.7 million expats are there to
support the oil & gas industry…
…and construction for the 2022 FIFA
World Cup
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The 1,800 TCF of North Dome/South Pars field is shared between Qatar and Iran
With a land mass of less than 4% of Norway,
Qatar has 10% of world’s gas reserves
North Dome ~ 62 %
South Pars ~ 38%
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Natural gas and liquids are transported onshore for processing and gas liquefaction at Ras Laffan
Inlet facilities
Field condensate
storage
Acid Gas removal
H2O, Hg & mercaptan
removal
NGL recovery
Fractionation& LPG
recovery
Gas chilling
N2 removal
LNG Storage
sour water treatment
sulphurrecovery unit
sulphurstorage
LPG storage
46 bar -147ºC
8 bar -160ºC
Liquefaction reduces the volume of the gas to 1/600th for ease of
transportation to overseas markets
There was little demand for gas domestically due to cheap electricity
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Initially, two companies at Ras Laffan produced rich LNG for export to the Asian market
Qatargas RasGas
QG1 RL1
trains 1, 2 & 3 trains 1 & 2
65% Qatar Petroleum
10% Exxon-Mobil
10% Total
7.5% Mitsui
7.5% Marubeni
70% Qatar Petroleum
30% Exxon-Mobil
At this point, there was no requirement for product allocation
Each train has a production capacity of ~ 3.2 to 3.3 Mtpa giving
a total of approximately 16.6 Mtpa
Each company owned and operated its own trains and product storage
facilities which included condensate, LPG, helium and sulphur
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In 2004, there was only the rich LNG plants and a dedicated berth each for QG1 and RL1
7
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Rapid expansion of the LNG industry was spurred by global demand & geopolitical considerations
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By 2011, 5 more ventures were developed to produce lean LNG for the European and US markets
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By 2011, 5 more ventures were developed to produce lean LNG for the European and US markets
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Plans for expansion led to the Common Facilities’ Projects to realise benefits of operational synergies
Qatargas RasGas
QG1 QGII QG3 QG4 RL1 RL3RLII
1,2 & 3 4 6 7 3,4 & 51&2 6&7
CCSLCommon
Condensate Storage & Loading
CLPGCommon
LPGStorage & Loading
CLLNGCommon Lean LNG Storage & Loading
CSPCommon Sulphur
Storage & Loading
Mega trains 7.8 Mpta
5
RL II capacity 4.7 Mtpa each
Total capacity: 77 Mtpa
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At maximum capacity, a Q-Max vessel is loaded every 17 hours at each berth
Approximately 1 Q-Max = UK gas consumption per day
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CLLNG would store Lean LNG for multiple & different shareholders within the new Joint Ventures
Qatargas RasGas
QGII QG3 QG4 RL3
4 6 7 6&7
Commercial allocation rules
were required…
5
RLII
3,4 & 5
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The CLLNG facility is spans a huge area and is over 5km across – excluding berths
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The CLLNG facility is spans a huge area and is over 5km across – excluding berths
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Operated by Qatargas & RasGas, this posed challenges including agreeing loss allocation and daily management
Only the Lean Lot H tanks were part of CLLNG
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RasGas used DRS on trains and upstream facilities to help identify gross errors and apportion loss to wells
The use of data reconciliation was supported by
stakeholders within CLLNG and written into the AMPThe raw Process Values are shown along with the
Reconciled Values
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The Allocation & Measurement Procedure details the allocation of each JV (Owner Group)’s inventory
OwnerGroup OwnerGroup OwnerGroup OwnerGroup
close open total
OwnerGroup OwnerGroup
inventory inventory production BOG
LNGloaded transfer
Due to DRS there is no allocation of losses
The calculations are done in Mass & Energy
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The Allocation & Measurement Procedure details the allocation of each JV (Owner Group)’s inventory
OwnerGroup OwnerGroup OwnerGroup OwnerGroup
close open total
OwnerGroup OwnerGroup
inventory inventory production BOG
LNGloaded transfer
BOG is boil-off gas vapour from the tanks which is
compressed and returned to the trains for fuel
This is allocated based on a theoretical calculation that uses
the N2 content and rundown rates of LNG into the tanks
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The Allocation & Measurement Procedure details the allocation of each JV (Owner Group)’s inventory
OwnerGroup OwnerGroup OwnerGroup OwnerGroup
close open total
OwnerGroup OwnerGroup
inventory inventory production BOG
LNGloaded transfer
Transfer captures the production that is moved between the
two tank farms via the transfer line
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The Allocation & Measurement Procedure details the allocation of each JV (Owner Group)’s inventory
OwnerGroup OwnerGroup OwnerGroup OwnerGroup
close open total
OwnerGroup OwnerGroup
inventory inventory production BOG
LNGloaded transfer
LNG loaded is the reference quantities of LNG loaded to
ship, Purge & Cooldown and Normal Loading Losses
Normal Loading Loss is based on loading quantity and the
characteristics of the vessel
34 Sales & Purchasing Agreements each had a different
method for calculating energy content of sales LNG…
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The Allocation & Measurement Procedure details the allocation of each JV (Owner Group)’s inventory
OwnerGroup OwnerGroup OwnerGroup OwnerGroup
close open total
OwnerGroup OwnerGroup
inventory inventory production BOG
LNGloaded transfer
Despite a very simple equation, this is quite a convoluted
process!
Production is deemed to be the sum of the daily reconciled
values from the balances
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RasGas & Qatargas perform different parts of the process with Qatargas as overall Operator
Lot H/Lot H Rich
balances
Lot H/Lot H Rich
allocation
Lot Nbalances
CLLNG allocation
Cargo adminberth 3
Cargo adminberths 4, 5 & 6
XML
manual
XML
daily
monthly
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QGII (trains 4&5)
RLII (train 3)
RLII (trains 4&5 )
RL1 (trains 1&2 )
QG3 (trains 6)
QG4 (train 7)
RL3(trains 6&7)
BOG
transfer line
RG fuel system
BOG
flare
flare
CLLNG area
Berth 4
Berth 5
Berth 6
Berth 2
Berth 3
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QGII (trains 4&5)
RLII (train 3)
RLII (trains 4&5 )
RL1 (trains 1&2 )
QG3 (trains 6)
QG4 (train 7)
RL3(trains 6&7)
BOG
transfer line
RG fuel system
BOG
flare
flare
Operated by QG
Berth 4
Berth 5
Berth 6
Berth 2
Berth 3
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QGII (trains 4&5)
RLII (train 3)
RLII (trains 4&5 )
RL1 (trains 1&2 )
QG3 (trains 6)
QG4 (train 7)
RL3(trains 6&7)
BOG
transfer line
RG fuel system
BOG
flare
flareOperated by RG
Berth 4
Berth 5
Berth 6
Berth 2
Berth 3
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𝐽 𝑦, 𝑧 = (𝑦 − 𝑦)𝑉−1(𝑦 − 𝑦)
𝑓 𝑦, 𝑧 = 0𝑔( 𝑦, 𝑧) ≥ 0
subject to:
minimise:
covariance matrix
of measurements
vector of raw
measurements
vector of estimates for
unmeasured process variablesvector of reconciled values for
measured process variables
vector describing model
equality constraints
vector describing model
inequality constraints
Sigmafine was used to do the daily reconciliations based on established techniques
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Separate daily component mass and energy balances are carried out for Lot N
QGII (trains 4&5)
QG3 (trains 6)
QG4 (train 7)
RL3(trains 6&7)
BOG
transfer line
flare
Berth 4
Berth 5
Berth 6
The number of RVs from Lot N
used in the allocation = 90
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RLII (train 3)
RLII (trains 4&5 )
RL1 (trains 1&2 )
transfer line
RG fuel system
BOGflare
Berth 2
Berth 3
These results would be sent to RasGas via XML to feed into the Lot H mass and energy balances
The number of RVs from Lot H
used in the allocation = 48
How is it done?
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The facility can be simply modelled using flows and a node for the tanks
𝑥𝑖All measured flows in and out of the node are denoted by
QGII (trains 4&5)
QG3 (trains 6)
QG4 (train 7)
RL3(trains 6&7)
BOG
transfer line
flare
Berth 4
Berth 5
Berth 6
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The model calculates a flow from the change in tank levels which is used in the reconciliation
QGII (trains 4&5)
QG3 (trains 6)
QG4 (train 7)
RL3(trains 6&7)
BOG
transfer line
flare
Berth 4
Berth 5
Berth 6
𝑦𝑖For clarity we shall refer to the tank change flow as
tank ‘flow’
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The model calculates a flow from the change in tank levels
𝑦1 = 𝑎1 − 𝑎0
𝑦1 = 𝑦1 + 𝜀1
The uncertainties in measurements a give an uncertainty in y which
allows the model to compute a reconciled value
𝑎0
𝑎1
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The reconciliation adjusts the mass or energy flows so there is a balance across the facility
𝑥𝑖 + 𝑦𝑖 = 0
The model adjusts the measured variables according to the magnitude
of the associated uncertainties to give the reconciled estimates
𝑥𝑖 + 𝑦𝑖 ≠ 0
becomes:
Loss would be appropriately attributed to the Owner Groups’ LNG
rundown each day and gross errors flagged up
So, what was the problem?
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The monthly allocation sums the daily balances and expects a perfect balance
OwnerGroup OwnerGroup OwnerGroup OwnerGroup
close open total
OwnerGroup OwnerGroup
inventory inventory production BOG
LNGloaded transfer
𝑛=1
𝑚
𝑥𝑖,𝑛 + 𝑛−1
𝑚
𝑦𝑛 = 0
For the monthly allocation, the total balance is given by:
We need explicit reporting of tank levels so we need to get back to the
opening and closing inventories for the month, and 𝑎𝑚 𝑎0
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The monthly allocation sums the daily balances and expects a perfect balance
𝑛=1
𝑚
𝑥𝑖,𝑛 + 𝑎𝑚 − 𝑎0 = 𝑛=1
𝑚
𝜀𝑛
𝑛=1
𝑚
𝑥𝑖,𝑛 + 𝑛=1
𝑚
(𝑦𝑛 + 𝜀𝑛) = 0
𝑛=1
𝑚
𝑥𝑖,𝑛 + 𝑛=1
𝑚
𝑦𝑛 = 0
Expanding and simplifying gives an imbalance:
So to have a zero imbalance, reconciled tank levels had to be used in
the daily reconciliations and monthly allocation calculations
m days
substitute to give
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The closing inventory was reconciled by adding the adjustment, en, to the measured level
𝑎1 = 𝑎1 + 𝜀1
𝑎1
𝑎0
𝑛=1
𝑚
𝑥𝑖,𝑛 + 𝑎𝑚 − 𝑎0 = 0
This reconciled closing stock is now used as the opening stock for the
next day’s reconciliation. Now, there is monthly mass balance:
measured
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The allocation agreement means imbalances are not attributed to all measurements
QGII (trains 4&5)
QG3 (trains 6)
QG4 (train 7)
RL3(trains 6&7)
BOG
transfer line
flare
Berth 4
Berth 5
Berth 6
tank ‘flow’
This meant that the imbalance was forced to the tanks, rundown
meters and BOG, fuel & flare
deemed to have zero uncertainty
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Over time, the difference between reconciled & measured inventory should be very small
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
LNGinventory(tonnes)
PV RV
𝑛=1
𝑚
𝜀𝑛 ≅ 0
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With a systematic bias, the measured inventory drifts from reconciled inventory
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
LNGinventory(tonnes)
PV RV
𝑛=1
𝑚
𝜀𝑛 ≠ 0
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The measured and reconciled tank levels showed drift over time
𝑎1 = 𝑎1 + 𝜀1
𝑎1
𝑎0
This was handled in other common facilities by periodically writing
down of reconciled stock to match physical stocks
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The reconciliation for energy exhibited a different bias
𝑎1 = 𝑎1 + 𝜀1
𝑎1
𝑎0
This resulted in a drift in energy density of tank inventory when
performing simultaneous mass and energy allocation
Thus the allocation was done in energy first with an adjustment in the
mass allocation to maintain the tank energy density
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Key learnings from the first year of operation allowed the process to be refined & improved
The change to ‘energy is king’ allocation resulted from user experience
and analysis of allocated results
Measurement uncertainties were now source data in the allocation
process and required a step change in measurement expertise & support
Handling of mismeasurements matured to dispense with the historical
rerunning of daily balances which had to be run sequentially
Was it the right thing to do?
purism v. pragmatism
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A better understanding of data reconciliation techniques now gives us a different perspective
Kalman filters?
Baysian statistics?
nonlinear data reconciliation?
What could we use to improve the
reconciliation?
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Data Reconciliation in LNG Tank Farm Allocation
Helen LittleAccord Energy Solutions LtdAberdeen, UK
6th June 2016
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