data analysis for source id: examples of statistical methods and results julie kinzelman, city of...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Data Analysis for Source ID: Examples of Statistical Methods and Results Julie Kinzelman, City of Racine Beach Management Workshop April 14 – 15, 2005,](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081515/56649e5c5503460f94b54b76/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Data Analysis for Source ID:Examples of Statistical Methods and Results
Julie Kinzelman, City of Racine
Beach Management Workshop
April 14 – 15, 2005, Egg Harbor, WI
![Page 2: Data Analysis for Source ID: Examples of Statistical Methods and Results Julie Kinzelman, City of Racine Beach Management Workshop April 14 – 15, 2005,](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081515/56649e5c5503460f94b54b76/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Association of Bacterial Indicator Levels to Coastal
Conditions
Can we tell when E. coli will be elevated?
![Page 3: Data Analysis for Source ID: Examples of Statistical Methods and Results Julie Kinzelman, City of Racine Beach Management Workshop April 14 – 15, 2005,](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081515/56649e5c5503460f94b54b76/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Potential Associations
• Wind Direction
• Wave Height Estimation
• Precipitation
• Surface Water Temperature
• Presence of Algae
![Page 4: Data Analysis for Source ID: Examples of Statistical Methods and Results Julie Kinzelman, City of Racine Beach Management Workshop April 14 – 15, 2005,](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081515/56649e5c5503460f94b54b76/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Wind Direction
Wind Vector Containing Direction East
![Page 5: Data Analysis for Source ID: Examples of Statistical Methods and Results Julie Kinzelman, City of Racine Beach Management Workshop April 14 – 15, 2005,](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081515/56649e5c5503460f94b54b76/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
YEAR NUMBER OF DAYS INCLUDING WIND VECTOR EAST (90°)
May June July August
2002 0* 10 9 16
2003 1** 9 12 17
2004 1*** 9 10 10
Number of Sampling Events
![Page 6: Data Analysis for Source ID: Examples of Statistical Methods and Results Julie Kinzelman, City of Racine Beach Management Workshop April 14 – 15, 2005,](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081515/56649e5c5503460f94b54b76/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Wind Vector East vs. Bathing Water Quality Failures
y = 0.7475x + 0.1884
R2 = 0.4988
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18
Number of Days Per Month With Wind Vector East
Nu
mb
er
of
Fa
ilu
res
![Page 7: Data Analysis for Source ID: Examples of Statistical Methods and Results Julie Kinzelman, City of Racine Beach Management Workshop April 14 – 15, 2005,](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081515/56649e5c5503460f94b54b76/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Winds East = High Waves
![Page 8: Data Analysis for Source ID: Examples of Statistical Methods and Results Julie Kinzelman, City of Racine Beach Management Workshop April 14 – 15, 2005,](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081515/56649e5c5503460f94b54b76/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Influence of East Wind
• In 2 out of the 3 years the increased number of days including wind vector E also reflected an increase in the number of days per month with poor water quality failures
• This translates to a correlation of ~ 50%
• Onshore winds frequently increased wave height as noted in field observations
![Page 9: Data Analysis for Source ID: Examples of Statistical Methods and Results Julie Kinzelman, City of Racine Beach Management Workshop April 14 – 15, 2005,](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081515/56649e5c5503460f94b54b76/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Wave Height
Estimated Visually (low, medium, or high)
![Page 10: Data Analysis for Source ID: Examples of Statistical Methods and Results Julie Kinzelman, City of Racine Beach Management Workshop April 14 – 15, 2005,](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081515/56649e5c5503460f94b54b76/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
YEAR DAILY FREQUENCY OF WAVE HEIGHT BY MONTH
May/June July August/September
Low Med. High Low Med. High Low Med. High
2002 6 5 10 12 6 9 4 13 10
2003 15 13 0 6 14 5 8 11 4
2004 14 6 4 13 4 5 5 16 9
Frequency of Wave Height
![Page 11: Data Analysis for Source ID: Examples of Statistical Methods and Results Julie Kinzelman, City of Racine Beach Management Workshop April 14 – 15, 2005,](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081515/56649e5c5503460f94b54b76/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
NUMBER OF DAYS
MAY/JUNE JULY AUGUST
MONTH
WAVE HEIGHT DISTRIBUTION (DAYS/MONTH)
LOW
MEDIUM
HIGH
![Page 12: Data Analysis for Source ID: Examples of Statistical Methods and Results Julie Kinzelman, City of Racine Beach Management Workshop April 14 – 15, 2005,](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081515/56649e5c5503460f94b54b76/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
The number of days with moderate or high waves increased
as the summer progressed.
The total number of days designated as having high waves increased in August
![Page 13: Data Analysis for Source ID: Examples of Statistical Methods and Results Julie Kinzelman, City of Racine Beach Management Workshop April 14 – 15, 2005,](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081515/56649e5c5503460f94b54b76/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Local Mathematical Model
Best Predictor:
E. coli today = 10.801 + 0.248 (yesterday's E. coli count) + 65.859 (wave height) [p = 0.009]
Second Best Predictor:
Wave Height + Easterly Wind Vector [p = 0.02]
![Page 14: Data Analysis for Source ID: Examples of Statistical Methods and Results Julie Kinzelman, City of Racine Beach Management Workshop April 14 – 15, 2005,](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081515/56649e5c5503460f94b54b76/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Precipitation
Wet Weather Advisories
![Page 15: Data Analysis for Source ID: Examples of Statistical Methods and Results Julie Kinzelman, City of Racine Beach Management Workshop April 14 – 15, 2005,](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081515/56649e5c5503460f94b54b76/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Average Daily Precipitation
AVERAGE DAILY PRECIPITATION BY MONTH (CM)
YEAR MONTH
JUNE JULY AUGUST
2002 0.61 0.38 0.48
2003 0.15 0.58 0.18
2004 0.58 0.08 0.33
![Page 16: Data Analysis for Source ID: Examples of Statistical Methods and Results Julie Kinzelman, City of Racine Beach Management Workshop April 14 – 15, 2005,](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081515/56649e5c5503460f94b54b76/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Monthly Precipitation
MONTHLY PRECIPITATION TOTALS (CM)
YEAR TOTAL MONTHLYPRECIPITATION
SEASONTOTAL
JUNE JULY AUGUST
200212.82 9.48 12.65 34.95
20033.62 14.08 4.05 21.75
200412.50 1.78 8.80 23.08
![Page 17: Data Analysis for Source ID: Examples of Statistical Methods and Results Julie Kinzelman, City of Racine Beach Management Workshop April 14 – 15, 2005,](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081515/56649e5c5503460f94b54b76/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
PRECIPITATION (CM)
june july august
MONTH
AVERAGE DAILY PRECIPITATION BY MONTH
2002
2003
2004
![Page 18: Data Analysis for Source ID: Examples of Statistical Methods and Results Julie Kinzelman, City of Racine Beach Management Workshop April 14 – 15, 2005,](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081515/56649e5c5503460f94b54b76/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
PRECIPITATION (CM)
june july august
MONTH
MONTHLY PRECIPITATION TOTALS (CM)
2002
2003
2004
![Page 19: Data Analysis for Source ID: Examples of Statistical Methods and Results Julie Kinzelman, City of Racine Beach Management Workshop April 14 – 15, 2005,](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081515/56649e5c5503460f94b54b76/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Although June had high amounts of ppt. it always had the least number of BWQF.
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Monthly Rainfall (cm)
JUNE JULY AUGUST
Month
Monthly Precipitation Totals (cm) vs. Number of Bathing Water Quality Failures - 2002
PPT (CM)
NO. OF BWQF
![Page 20: Data Analysis for Source ID: Examples of Statistical Methods and Results Julie Kinzelman, City of Racine Beach Management Workshop April 14 – 15, 2005,](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081515/56649e5c5503460f94b54b76/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
2004
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Monthly Rainfall (cm)
JUNE JULY AUGUST
Month
Monthly Precipitation Totals vs. Number of Bathing Water Quality Failures - 2004
PPT (CM)
BWQF
![Page 21: Data Analysis for Source ID: Examples of Statistical Methods and Results Julie Kinzelman, City of Racine Beach Management Workshop April 14 – 15, 2005,](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081515/56649e5c5503460f94b54b76/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Rainfall can have an immediate impact on surface water quality
1 9 1
8 7 2
01 0 02 0 03 0 04 0 05 0 06 0 07 0 08 0 09 0 0
E . c o l i M P N /1 0 0 m l
9 0 0 1 2 0 0
T im e o f S a m p le C o l le c t io n ( 0 9 0 0 o r 1 2 0 0 )
0 8 / 1 7 / 2 0 0 4
![Page 22: Data Analysis for Source ID: Examples of Statistical Methods and Results Julie Kinzelman, City of Racine Beach Management Workshop April 14 – 15, 2005,](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081515/56649e5c5503460f94b54b76/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Storm Water Discharge to Lake Michigan after Rain Event
![Page 23: Data Analysis for Source ID: Examples of Statistical Methods and Results Julie Kinzelman, City of Racine Beach Management Workshop April 14 – 15, 2005,](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081515/56649e5c5503460f94b54b76/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Rainfall vs. BWQF
• Rainfall preceded about 50% of all BWQF in Racine in 2004
• The impacts of rainfall can be sudden and immediate
• Pre-emptive advisories may be appropriate• Rainfall can impact surface in a variety of
ways:– CSO, SSO, Runoff, Storm water discharge
![Page 24: Data Analysis for Source ID: Examples of Statistical Methods and Results Julie Kinzelman, City of Racine Beach Management Workshop April 14 – 15, 2005,](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081515/56649e5c5503460f94b54b76/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Surface Water Temperature
Did Warmer Water = More Bacteria?
![Page 25: Data Analysis for Source ID: Examples of Statistical Methods and Results Julie Kinzelman, City of Racine Beach Management Workshop April 14 – 15, 2005,](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081515/56649e5c5503460f94b54b76/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Upwelling can change surface water temperatureLake Michigan Surface Temperature (F) at North Beach, Racine, WI- Summer 2002
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
03-J
UN-02
05-J
UN-02
07-J
UN-02
09-J
UN-02
12-J
UN-02
17-J
UN-02
19-J
UN-02
21-J
UN-02
26-J
UN-02
28-J
UN-02
02-J
UL-02
08-J
UL-02
11-J
UL-02
15-J
UL-02
18-J
UL-02
20-J
UL-02
23-J
UL-02
25-J
UL-02
27-J
UL-02
29-J
UL-02
01-A
UG-02
03-A
UG-02
05-A
UG-02
07-A
UG-02
10-A
UG-02
12-A
UG-02
15-A
UG-02
19-A
UG-02
21-A
UG-02
23-A
UG-02
27-A
UG-02
Date
Te
mp
era
ture
(F
)
Wind Direction = S
Wind Direction = S
![Page 26: Data Analysis for Source ID: Examples of Statistical Methods and Results Julie Kinzelman, City of Racine Beach Management Workshop April 14 – 15, 2005,](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081515/56649e5c5503460f94b54b76/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
RELATIONSHIP OF E. COLI TO SURFACE WATER TEMPERATURE - 2004
y = 0.0629x - 2.6058
R2 = 0.0379
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
50 55 60 65 70 75 80
TEMPERATURE (F)
E.
CO
LI
MP
N/1
00
ML
(L
OG
10
)
![Page 27: Data Analysis for Source ID: Examples of Statistical Methods and Results Julie Kinzelman, City of Racine Beach Management Workshop April 14 – 15, 2005,](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081515/56649e5c5503460f94b54b76/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
Scatter plots of the data demonstrate that a strong
correlation did not exist between E. coli and surface water
temperature [R2=0.04(2004)]
![Page 28: Data Analysis for Source ID: Examples of Statistical Methods and Results Julie Kinzelman, City of Racine Beach Management Workshop April 14 – 15, 2005,](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081515/56649e5c5503460f94b54b76/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
Algae (Cladophora)
Was there more E. coli when there was more algae?
![Page 29: Data Analysis for Source ID: Examples of Statistical Methods and Results Julie Kinzelman, City of Racine Beach Management Workshop April 14 – 15, 2005,](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081515/56649e5c5503460f94b54b76/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
High Amounts of Algae - 2002
![Page 30: Data Analysis for Source ID: Examples of Statistical Methods and Results Julie Kinzelman, City of Racine Beach Management Workshop April 14 – 15, 2005,](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081515/56649e5c5503460f94b54b76/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
Low Amounts of Algae - 2004
![Page 31: Data Analysis for Source ID: Examples of Statistical Methods and Results Julie Kinzelman, City of Racine Beach Management Workshop April 14 – 15, 2005,](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081515/56649e5c5503460f94b54b76/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
ALGAL PRESENCE VS. E. COLI CONCENTRATION
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5
ALGAL PRESENCE
![Page 32: Data Analysis for Source ID: Examples of Statistical Methods and Results Julie Kinzelman, City of Racine Beach Management Workshop April 14 – 15, 2005,](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081515/56649e5c5503460f94b54b76/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
Association of Algae to BWQF
• The concentration of E. coli isolated from North Beach did not correlate with the amount of algae noted in the field at the time of collection
• Neither was there a higher incidence of water quality advisories on days when moderate or high levels of algae were noted
![Page 33: Data Analysis for Source ID: Examples of Statistical Methods and Results Julie Kinzelman, City of Racine Beach Management Workshop April 14 – 15, 2005,](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081515/56649e5c5503460f94b54b76/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
Association of Algae to BWQF
• E. coli concentration, ranked by code relating to Cladophora presence and subjected to ANOVA showed no significant difference (p = 0.64)
• Limited by the small number of degrees of freedom (n = 27)
• Correlation may have been noted if the degrees of freedom were higher, i.e. more samples collected
![Page 34: Data Analysis for Source ID: Examples of Statistical Methods and Results Julie Kinzelman, City of Racine Beach Management Workshop April 14 – 15, 2005,](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081515/56649e5c5503460f94b54b76/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
Best Predictors of Water Quality in Racine, WI
• Wave Height (> 1.0 ft.)
• Wind Direction (East)
![Page 35: Data Analysis for Source ID: Examples of Statistical Methods and Results Julie Kinzelman, City of Racine Beach Management Workshop April 14 – 15, 2005,](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081515/56649e5c5503460f94b54b76/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
Acknowledgements
• S. C. Johnson, A Family Company
• WI DNR
• Richard Whitman, USGS
• City of Racine Health Department
• University of Surrey, RCPEH
![Page 36: Data Analysis for Source ID: Examples of Statistical Methods and Results Julie Kinzelman, City of Racine Beach Management Workshop April 14 – 15, 2005,](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081515/56649e5c5503460f94b54b76/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
Too Many Statistics!!!