dark scenarios as a tool for fta: safeguards in a world of ambient intelligence (swami)
DESCRIPTION
Second International Seville Seminar on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA): Impacts on policy and decision making 28th- 29th September 2006. Dark Scenarios as a tool for FTA: Safeguards in a World of Ambient Intelligence (SWAMI). Y.Punie, I.Maghiros & S.Delaitre. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Second International Seville Seminar on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA): Impacts on policy and decision
making28th- 29th September 2006
Second International Seville Seminar on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA): Impacts on policy and decision
making28th- 29th September 2006
Dark Scenarios as a tool for FTA: Safeguards in a World of Ambient Intelligence
(SWAMI) Y.Punie, I.Maghiros & S.Delaitre
DG JRC IPTS – ICT Unit
SWAMI Dark ScenariosSWAMI Dark Scenarios
IPTS – ICT Unit: Research agenda
Problem and policy driven:
What can ICT do for the broader socio-economic challenges of the EU (focus on Lisbon goals)?
Prospective:
– How to develop Europe into a knowledge society?
– What are the mid to long term R&D strategies needs with regard to European innovation in ICT and
– What are emerging ICT driven areas Europe should be active in?
Scientific:
Understanding how technical inventions in ICT become successful innovation/societal realities
SWAMI Dark ScenariosSWAMI Dark Scenarios
IPTS – ICT Unit: Research activities
IS & Growth
– Competitiveness of the ICT R&D system in Europe
– IST based growth models and challenges (regional, global/Asia and NMS)
E-Applications
– ICTs for Inclusion and Quality of Life
– The future of eServices – Web 2.0 – Proactive role of users
Techno-Economic Foresight in the Information Society (TEFIS)
– European Prospective in the Information Society (EPIS)
– e-Identity charter
SWAMI Dark ScenariosSWAMI Dark Scenarios
Introducing Ambient IntelligenceAmI is convergence of
Ubiquitous Computing• Not only pc but also non-pc devices (everyday objects);
• These devices will ‘sense’;• These devices will be ‘smart’;
Ubiquitous Communication
• These devices will ‘communicate’;
• These devices will be ‘connected’
Ubiquitous Interfaces• Intelligent User Friendly Interfaces
• Pro-active, context-aware and personalised
ISTAG vision: human-centred computing at the service of mankind
ISTAG Scenarios on AmI (2000) - AmI in FP6 (2002-2006)
Emergent property – next generation ICT
SWAMI Dark ScenariosSWAMI Dark Scenarios
SWAMI Dark ScenariosSWAMI Project (2005-2006) Identify and analyse the SELT issues related to identity, privacy
and security in the future Ambient Intelligence (AmI)
Dark scenario objectives Identify and highlight potential vulnerabilities and associated threatspotential vulnerabilities and associated threats
Develop/propose safeguards to address vulnerabilities and threats
The need to develop dark scenarios Contrast predominance of “bright scenarios” and bright futures
ICT – AmI not the domain of traditional risk analysis and assessment
Less risky today but not in knowledge-based information society Alert policy makers and RTD actors as to the need to develop safeguards
Support the realisation of AmI
SWAMI Dark ScenariosSWAMI Dark Scenarios
SWAMI Dark Scenarios methodology
No unique methodology Not predicting or forecasting the future
Looking for an understanding as to anticipate and work towards the futures
A tool for stimulating debate, structuring thinking, ‘what if’ games, aiding in synthesis, and raising awareness intuitively
Approach similar to mainstream scenario exercises (iterative and analytical)
Specific to SWAMI
Alternative visions of future we do NOT want to realize
No doom scenarios where everything goes wrong
Scenarios “not only” end in themselves “but also” an instrument for safeguards
Realistic & plausible scenarios: extrapolate from current trends both in terms of situations and in terms of technologies…
SWAMI Dark ScenariosSWAMI Dark Scenarios
SWAMI Scenario Approach
Literature review Experts workshop Internal workshop Drafting scenarios
Scenario stories
Scenario analysis
Situations AmI technologies AmI applications DriversIssues Legal
Technology check Reality check
SWAMI Dark ScenariosSWAMI Dark Scenarios
Four Dark Scenarios
Scenario 1: A typical family(at home, at work, outdoors)
Scenario 2: Seniors on a journey(travel and health issues)
Scenario 3: Corporate Boardroom & court-case
(data aggregator)
Scenario 4: Risk Society(Digital Divide, environment, traffic & crowd management)
Private Sphere / Private concerns
Individual / micro level
Public Sphere / Public concerns
Society / macro level
SWAMI Dark ScenariosSWAMI Dark Scenarios
Dark scenario 1: a Typical Family
Story overviewA typical family in 3 different but blurring environments at Home, at Work and also outdoors, making use of AmI devices and services. System vulnerabilities and crime opportunities are exploited as the family leads an everyday life.
Different scenes
Scene 1 – At Home: Digital blackmail, unfounded suspicions due to extensive profiling, impacts on work and home environments.
Scene 2 – At Work: Shopping while at work, data laundering, accidental mistake and consequences.
Scene 3 – At the Park: Location-based advertising, irritation, consequences, dependence on AmI, exclusion; erroneous identification, AmI facilitated crime, usability/costs.
SWAMI Dark ScenariosSWAMI Dark Scenarios
Dark scenario 2: Seniors on a journey
Story overviewFocuses on senior citizens and their health related needs while on a bus tour abroad. An exploited vulnerability in the traffic system causes an accident, raising many different issues such as: individual needs vs. economies of scale; reliance on AmI infrastructure; equal and fair access, usability and accessibility principles.
Different scenesScene 1 - News from the police report: Senior citizen dies after bus accident
Scene 2 - Travel preparation and check-in procedure for public transportation
Scene 3 - Traffic supported by ambient intelligence
Scene 4 - Emergency situation
Scene 5 - Ambient intelligence and medical care
SWAMI Dark ScenariosSWAMI Dark Scenarios
Dark scenario 3: Corporate Boardroom
Story overviewA ‘Data Aggregator’ successfully corners the data market for public and private sector clients until their business model is exposed to society-at-large through insider data theft, and fraudulent data use. Media reports uncover the scandal and a court case puts a stop to abuse. However, it will take the victims much
more time to gain control over their personal data that have been exposed.
Different scenesScene 1 – Management Board Meeting: data aggregation and mining, data theft, dependency on AmI infrastructure, risks in business setting.
Scene 2 – The Court case: future legal framework does not allow misuse of abuse of data collected, democratic principles prevail.
SWAMI Dark ScenariosSWAMI Dark Scenarios
Dark scenario 4: Risk Society
Story overviewDifferent stories on likely adverse consequences of AmI for society at large including public action against personalised profiling, global scale digital environmental divides and public life disruptions. In all cases AmI diffusion is both widening and bridging existing gaps.
Different scenesScene 1 – The Anti-Personalised Profiling Action Group (APPAG).
Scene 2 – AmI Divides
Scene 3 – Public Life Disrupted by Virus Attack
Scene 4 - AmI-system aided mass risk management
SWAMI Dark ScenariosSWAMI Dark Scenarios
Contents of dark scenariosDarkScen1 DarkScen2 DarkScen3 DarkScen4
Technology /Devices
Embedded tags; home sensors; biometrics; personal wrist communicator
Sensors / actuators; interfaces; comms; Health monitoring devices.
Biometrics; displays; voice activated cmds; surveillance; location implants; RFIDs; sensors & actuators.
Smart dust; positioning sensors; data mining; traffic routing; comms networks.
Applications
Security; spy ware; surveillance; tracking/monitoring LBS, DRM.
Communication Mngt system; support for elderly; health monitoring systems.
Immigration control; personalisation; profiling; targeted marketing; counter-terrorism.
Personalisation; environmental monitoring; security; anti-virus; crowd management.
Issues
Loss of control; disproportionate reactions due to profiling; exclusion, human factors in security.
Dependence; loss of control; privacy; exclusion; complex risk assessment; identity; crime;
Power Concentration; illusion of security; digital divide; trust; differences in legal regimes.
Personalised vs. group profiling; victimisation; digital divide; loss of control; dependency.
SWAMI Dark ScenariosSWAMI Dark Scenarios
Dark scenarios: SafeguardsA multiplicity of threats & vulnerabilities -> multiplicity of safeguardsTechnological
Minimal data collection, transmission and storageData and software securityPrivacy protection in networkingAuthorisation and access control
Socio-economicStandards, AuditsTrustGuidelines for ICT researchAccessibility and social inclusionRaising public awareness
Legal and regulatoryPreserving the core of privacy and other human rightsData protection and securityConsumer protection law and electronic commerceInteroperability and international co-operation
SWAMI Dark ScenariosSWAMI Dark Scenarios
Impact dark scenarios…
Recommendations Formalisation of risk assessment / management process with regard to Formalisation of risk assessment / management process with regard to
the risks posed by AmI to security and privacy.the risks posed by AmI to security and privacy.
Investment in an awareness campaign specifically focused on AmI.Investment in an awareness campaign specifically focused on AmI.
Review of the existing legal and regulatory framework with respect to Review of the existing legal and regulatory framework with respect to AmI.AmI.
Proactive in the development of a more comprehensive international co-Proactive in the development of a more comprehensive international co-operation frameworkoperation framework
Ensuring the projects that it funds take questions of privacy, security and Ensuring the projects that it funds take questions of privacy, security and trust into accounttrust into account
SWAMI Dark ScenariosSWAMI Dark Scenarios
Dark scenarios: Conclusions (1/2)
Issues are widespread: Varied, Wide and Deep• Varied: AmI infrastructure touches upon all aspects of everyday life
• Wide: Dark situations can encompass “dark feelings” (ranging from irksome to burdensome; and entail annoyance and embarrassment) but also “dark experiences” such as theft, harassment, accidents etc.
• Deep: Impact can be severe (e.g. digital divide) and difficult to revoke (e.g.ID Theft)
Safeguards need to be widespread as well: SELT
Impact• Policymakers
• RTD and designers
• Wider audience
Zero-risk society is not possible or desirable
SWAMI Dark ScenariosSWAMI Dark Scenarios
Dark scenarios: Conclusions (2/2)
Specific
• Few qualitatively new risks identified
• Current behavioural patterns will induce more risk in tomorrow’s AmI world: ICTs – AmI will become more “risky”
Methodological
• Successfully highlighted potential vulnerabilities & associated threats
• More than appealing scripts: detailed scenario analysis in terms of technologies /devices, applications, drivers, issues, legal analysis
• Dark scenarios need to be realistic and plausible: ‘reality and technology’ checks
• ‘Delicate’ exercise: how dark can you be?
• Maybe not dark scenarios but just realistic ones ….
SWAMI Dark ScenariosSWAMI Dark Scenarios
Thank you
IPTS Team: Y.Punie, I.Maghiros & S.Delaitre
SWAMI Consortium
ISI-Fraunhofer, VUB, VTT, Trilateral research & IPTS
http://swami.jrc.es