dar es salaam, tanzania, november 15-17, 2011siteresources.worldbank.org/.../carret.pdf ·...
TRANSCRIPT
Xavier Chavana PPCR Coordinator, Ministry of Planning and Development Jean-Christophe Carret, Sr Environmental Economist, WB
TFESSD FORUM : GREEN AND INCLUSIVE DEVELOPMENT: HARNESSING TFESSD KNOWLEDGE
Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, November 15-17, 2011
Climate change in Mozambique: from
knowledge creation to Investments
TFESSD – TASAF – Norway and Finland
Adaptation costs are mainly incurred in developing countries and equal ODA
Additional investment needs in developing countries, by
2030
Annual Costs of Adaptation: by Sectors, 2010-2050, US$ Billion
Mozambique: Vulnerability to Climate Variability and Change
The 2000 floods cost about 20% of GDP, Water shocks reduce GDP
growth by 1% annually
The cost of inaction in the worst scenario is about US$7.6 billion (NPV)
= annual payment of US$420 million = a 1/3 of current ODA
BACKGROUND OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE
"Dry" and “Wet” Scenarios for Precipitation in 2050
Estimate change in effective return time for the 100-year storm surge as a result of Sea Level Rise (SLR) for Beira
“Dry” and “Wet” Scenarios for Temperature in 2050
4
Impact of Mozambican Floods in Different Sectors
Climate Change Impact on Hydro-Power Generation and Roads Infrastructure
The effects on the hydropower sector are
minimal, losing around 6% of total electricity
production between 2010 and 2050 thus
implying that the current plan ($5 billion)
for development is climate resilient
Change in national road network length relative to
baseline, 2050 (%)
Global Wet -16.1 Global Dry -22.4 Local Wet -11.9
Local Dry -2.1
The overall impact of severe rainfall events would be substantial, in part because of the
importance of current and required investments in the sector
CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE: IMPACTS AND IMPLICATIONS
1.5% Agricultural GDP loss by 2040-2050
~1 million people at risk of displacement from coastal zones
Climate Change Effects on Yields
Loss of Coastal Land and Displacement
7
Recommended Climate-Specific Interventions
River basin management Agricultural research &
extension Seal unpaved roads It is not cost effective to protect
the vast majority of coastal regions of Mozambique. High value and vulnerable locations, merit specific
consideration as even relatively small levels of sea level rise dramatically increase the probability of severe storm surge events
The City of Beira
CLIMATE INVESTMENT FUNDS (CIF) Structure
Strategic Climate Fund Targeted programs with dedicated funding
to pilot new approaches with potential for scaling up
Pilot Program for Climate Resilience
Mainstream
climate resilience into core
development planning
Forest Investment
Program
Reduce emissions from
deforestation and forest degradation
Scaling Up Renewable
Energy in Low Income
Countries
Initiate transformational change by use of renewable energy
±$2.0 billion
PILOT PROGRAM FOR CLIMATE RESILIENCE (PPCR)
Purpose To help highly vulnerable countries pilot and demonstrate
ways to integrate climate risk and resilience into core development planning while complementing other ongoing activities.
Scale $1 billion in pledges, mainly grants with option to augment
with IDA-like/highly concessional resources.
Governance Sub-Committee: Australia/UK, Bangladesh, Canada,
Denmark/Norway, Germany, Jamaica, Japan, Samoa, Tajikistan, USA, Yemen, Zambia, the Adaptation Fund Board + observers (4 civil society, 2 indigenous peoples, 2 private sector, 1 rep. of community dependent on adaptation approaches), GEF, UNDP, UNEP, UNFCCC
Partnership Multilateral Development Banks (AfDB, ADB, EBRD, IDB,
and WBG) to support adaptation in a coherent and integrated way
Measuring Success • Increased capacity to integrate climate
resilience into development • Increased awareness of vulnerabilities
and potential impacts • Scaled-up investments for broader
interventions and programming • Improved coordination among
stakeholders • Capture & transfer of lessons learned
Pilot Programs Bangladesh, Bolivia, Cambodia, Mozambique, Nepal, Niger, Tajikistan, Yemen, Zambia -- 2 regional programs in Caribbean (Haiti, Jamaica and OECS countries) and South Pacific (Tonga, Samoa, PNG).
Climate change and national development goals and priorities
Five Year Government Plan
(2010-2014)
Poverty Reduction Strategy (2011-2014)
Inclusive Economic growth
for Poverty reduction
7-8% (yr) 12% (four years)
Foster human and social
development
Promote employment
Boost production and productivity in
agriculture and fisheries
Mainstreaming of Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Reduction
Alignment of National priorities: NAPA versus PPCR
Priorities of NAPA
Hydrometeorological services
SPCR Projects
Agriculture and Food security
DPO (Energy sector strategy)
Coastal cities and climate change
Land, water and natural resources
Disasters Prevention/ Early warning
Agriculture
Coastal zones/Erosion
Environment and water resources
Credit lines
Energy
Forestry and Tourism
Capacity building Program
management/Technical assistance
PPCR Objectives
Build national capacity for climate change adaptation though transformational pilot investments
Finance investments in
infrastructures and economic sectors
Demonstrate how to mainstream climate change in national policies, plans and
strategies
Fill in the gaps in knowledge and
national dialogue on climate
change
The Three Pillars of the SPCR 15
Pillar 3 Program and Knowledge
Management
•SPCR management and coordination
•Monitoring frameworks
•Knowledge management
•Evidence building
•Capacity-building
Pillar 2
Pilot Investments
•Roads
•Agriculture & water resources
•Coastal cities
•Private sector investment in forestry and micro-irrigation
Pillar 2: Piloting Climate Resilient Investments at Scale
Blended
Zambezi Valley: Floods
Climate resilient rural roads
Developing hydro-meteorological systems
Coastal vulnerability
Developing climate resilience of Beira city
Limpopo Watershed: Droughts
Climate resilient agriculture,
Community-based NRM in drought affected watersheds
Credit lines for private investment in micro-irrigation
Non Blended Forests management
Building climate resilience through private investment in sustainable forest management and tourism
16
Studies and Knowledge: Filling in the gaps
Studies under preparation
(PPCR phase I)
Future studies (PPCR phase
II)
Private sector
Public sector
Municipalities Coastal protection in Beira
Health and Social protection
Roads (Zambezi) and Livelihoods
(Limpopo)
Ports, urban water, Forestry, Tourism
Vulnerability and adaptation needs
Introducing Climate Resilience (20 percent) in WB IDA 16 Mozambique Portfolio
New Africa regional Strategy Pillar II: Vulnerability and Resilience
New Mozambique CPS (IDA $800 million) Results Area 6: Improved resiliency to natural disasters, climate change
PPCR($50million) /IDA ($60 million) DRM Plan ($5 million) /GEF ($ 10 million)
Investments in Sectors (urban, transport, water, agriculture)
Technical Assistance on Budget and
Planning
CC DPO ($100 million)
Policy Reforms
Prime Minister
SD Council
MPD
PPCR/NDF ($120 million)
Hydromets Coastal Cities
Roads and
Bridges
Irrigation (AfDB)
Micro Credit and Weather
Insurance (IFC)
CC DPO ($120 million)
DFID TA ($3 million)
MICOA
ESP2 ($34 million)
DRR Council
INGC
AAP ($3 million)
Country DRM ($up
to 5 million)
G-19
NGO
WB
Institutional Arrangements and Donor Coordination
Websites
www.worldbank.org/eacc www.climateinvestmentfunds.org web.worldbank.org/mozambique