danny deadlock reports on poydras gaming (v.pyd)

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PAGE 1 OF 12 Poydras Gaming Finance Corp TSXV:PYD CAD 8 cents STOCKHOUSE ADVERTORIAL | DANNY DEADLOCK [MICROCAP EQUITY ANALYST] WWW.POYDRASGAMING.COM Poydras provides competitive and flexible financing solutions for mid-sized American casinos. Financing is structured to include lease payments and a percentage of gaming machine revenue. In July 2015 Poydras closed the acquisition of the Integrity Companies, a leading provider of third party gaming equipment to Native American-owned casinos in Oklahoma and Texas. By the end of 2015 Poydras expects to have 2,500 gaming machines on revenue share (they have 2,200 currently). Their initial target markets have in excess of 140,000 machines. Integrity was acquired for USD $17.6M (CAD $23M) inclusive of a USD $5M earn-out, and is expected to add over USD $5M of adjusted EBITDA in the first full year of operation. Integrity has a 20 year history, more than 20 gaming and/or bingo licenses, and over 1,600 revenue producing machines in 21 casinos. The announcement of the Integrity acquisition immediately boosted Poydras’ profile and led to them securing a new contract with the Tonkawa Tribe of Indians of Oklahoma. This contract, which allows Poydras to place 600 slot machines in two casinos, is well underway and will generate an anticipated USD $5 million in adjusted EBITDA annually. ____________________________________ In addition to Oklahoma and Texas, Poydras will initially focus on states where tremendous growth potential exists, including California and Louisiana. Poydras contracts range from one to seven years (typically five to seven), with 80-90% gross margins and two to three year capital payback. Pro Forma Adjusted EBITDA with Integrity and Tonkawa will be approx. USD $11 million (CAD $14.3M). Key Statistics Price at Date of Report: CAD $0.08 52wk Range: CAD $0.065 to $0.26 Shares Outstanding (pro forma): 345,489,260 Market Cap: CAD $28 million Avg Daily Trading Volume: Past Month: 400k Past 3 Months: 245k Years in Business: Four + Twenty (incl. Integrity Acquisition) Industry: Gaming Region: United States Investment Overview July 23, 2015 EQUITY RESEARCH REPORT

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Investment analyst Danny Deadlock digs in on Poydras Gaming and gives a lowdown on the company and its potential.

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  • PAGE 1 OF 12

    Poydras

    Gaming

    Finance Corp

    TSXV:PYD CAD 8

    cents

    STOCKHOUSE ADVERTORIAL | DANNY DEADLOCK [MICROCAP EQUITY ANALYST] WWW.POYDRASGAMING.COM

    Poydras provides competitive and flexible financing solutions for mid-sized American casinos. Financing is structured to include lease payments and a percentage of gaming machine revenue.

    In July 2015 Poydras closed the acquisition of the Integrity Companies, a leading provider of third party gaming equipment to Native American-owned casinos in Oklahoma and Texas.

    By the end of 2015 Poydras expects to have 2,500 gaming machines on revenue share (they have 2,200 currently). Their initial target markets have in excess of 140,000 machines.

    Integrity was acquired for USD $17.6M (CAD $23M) inclusive of a USD $5M earn-out, and is expected to add over USD $5M of adjusted EBITDA in the first full year of operation.

    Integrity has a 20 year history, more than 20 gaming and/or bingo licenses, and over 1,600 revenue producing machines in 21 casinos.

    The announcement of the Integrity acquisition immediately boosted Poydras profile and led to them securing a new contract with the Tonkawa Tribe of Indians of Oklahoma. This contract, which allows Poydras to place 600 slot machines in two casinos, is well underway and will generate an anticipated USD $5 million in adjusted EBITDA annually.

    ____________________________________

    In addition to Oklahoma and Texas, Poydras will initially focus on states where tremendous growth potential exists, including California and Louisiana.

    Poydras contracts range from one to seven years (typically five to seven), with 80-90% gross margins and two to three year capital payback.

    Pro Forma Adjusted EBITDA with Integrity and Tonkawa will be approx. USD $11 million (CAD $14.3M).

    Key Statistics

    Price at Date of Report: CAD $0.08 52wk Range: CAD $0.065 to $0.26 Shares Outstanding (pro forma): 345,489,260 Market Cap: CAD $28 million Avg Daily Trading Volume: Past Month: 400k Past 3 Months: 245k Years in Business: Four + Twenty (incl. Integrity Acquisition)

    Industry: Gaming Region: United States

    Investment Overview

    July 23, 2015 EQUITY RESEARCH REPORT

  • PAGE 2 OF 12

    \

    The completion of the acquisition of the Integrity Companies and the full roll-out of the Tonkawa placement agreement provides significant scale and operating leverage to Poydras.

    They now have the corporate and operating infrastructure in place to scale operating costs.

    Their presence in two dozen casinos gives them a strong growth platform that better positions them to successfully win deals in an environment that typically has no real competitive process.

    On target for 2,500 Gaming Machines on revenue share by the end of 2015.

    Plans to enter new U.S. geographic regions in 2016 to accelerate growth.

    Evaluating new acquisitions / partnerships.

    Pro forma run rate EBITDA of USD $11 million (CAD $14.3M) will help secure attractive debt facility.

    High margin, cash-flowing business with predictable revenue streams over the life of a contract.

    American casinos have an install base of > 900,000 slot (gaming) machines accounting for 70% of casino revenues.

    NICHE MARKET OPPORTUNITY

    Recent under-investment in slot machines accelerates the replacement cycle and creates demand from small and mid-sized casinos who still struggle to raise capital at reasonable terms despite healthy economics.

    POYDRAS THREE TO FIVE YEAR GROWTH TARGETS:

    Become the largest multi-jurisdictional electronic gaming investor/owner in the U.S., having expanded to multiple geographies.

    Have well over 5,000 machines in three years, with USD $20 million in operating cash flow.

    Lead their markets in rolling out the next generation of electronic gaming devices and establish an international presence.

    Key Points

    Growth Opportunities & Catalysts

  • PAGE 3 OF 12

    .

  • PAGE 4 OF 12

    As evidenced by the following graphic, the overall potential for Poydras growth in the United States is tremendous.

    It will obviously take time to compete in these markets but as their reputation in Oklahoma and Texas grows, they will likely find themselves in the enviable position of being approached by casino operators in other states, and find a receptive audience for their business development initiatives.

    The Native American gaming community will support service providers they trust and who have established a solid reputation within their markets. Poydras is well on their way to establishing this trust.

  • PAGE 5 OF 12

    For more clarity on the above footnote, please review the Poydras corporate presentation available on their website at www.poydrasgaming.com

    Due Diligence Study:

    What are Your Target Milestones or Events over the next 12 to 18 months?

    Integration of the Integrity Companies Have 500+ machines up and running at Tonkawa by the end of July, and all 600

    machines up and running at Tonkawa by Q4 2015 Place an additional 125 machines with a current tribal customer expected in Q4

    2015 Have over 2,500 revenue generating machines by the end of 2015 Enter into a new geography (outside of Oklahoma and Texas), such as Louisiana,

    in the next twelve months Evaluate other acquisition / partnership opportunities, including those outside our

    core Tribal leasing business ongoing Use our pro forma run-rate EBITDA of USD $11 million to secure an attractive debt facility

    What positions the company for profitable growth? 1) The completion of the acquisition of the Integrity Companies and the full roll-out of the Tonkawa placement agreement will provide significant scale and operating leverage; 2) Corporate and operating infrastructure in place to scale without much additional operating costs; 3) Our presence in over two dozen casinos will give us a strong growth platform that better positions us to successfully win deals in a deal environment that typically has no real competitive process.

  • PAGE 6 OF 12

    Where does the companys strongest growth prospects lie? The immediate growth opportunity is in expanding our overall slot machine footprint in Oklahoma the Oklahoma gaming market is one that continues to grow, though may be reaching the point of saturation. We see growth through further penetration of the tribal gaming market in geographies outside of Oklahoma. Growth also exists in acquiring or partnering with companies that are complementary and adjacent to our business (the larger gaming industry).

    Is the company looking seriously at any mergers or acquisitions? If so, is it conditional upon future financing? Part of our corporate strategy is to continue to pursue expansion and acquisition opportunities; we actively pursue and evaluate M&A opportunities, whether they be in our current core business or outside the business.

    Is the ability to attract skilled labor an issue for the company? If so, how will this be resolved? We continue to augment the core competencies of the company as we grow we are acquiring a proven team in Integrity and expect to be able to supplement our team with additional talent in the coming months.

    Industry Position

    Do you view yourself as an industry leader or innovator and why?

    We offer an innovative leasing and financing model, and we have partnered with equipment manufacturers Yes, we tackle the challenges others wont were flexible and can advance capital through a variety of forms We think of ourselves as providing creative, flexible, and fast moving sources of capital Our innovation target is to get ahead of the next wave in the gaming equipment space, and to lead our markets in rolling out

    the next generation of electronic gaming devices

    What competitive advantage (or leadership products) does the company have (if any) within its industry?

    With the acquisition of the Integrity Companies we provide: 1) Unmatched customer network in core Oklahoma market and a national reputation 2) Active relationships with the largest US suppliers 3) Highly developed inhouse service and compliance platforms 4) True multijurisdictional operator with added regulatory benefit of being publicly listed

    Unique management team with wall street / finance / investment banking / capital markets experience, principal investing

    experience, operational experience, strategic vision and forward thinking mentality, and importantly, access to deal flow Strong network of relationships within the industry

    Who are the main competitors within this industry? Other than us and one other large player with a concentrated footprint, the participation-based gaming lease and supplier market is fragmented, with numerous smaller mom and pop shops that have contracts with one or a handful of casinos.

    In what areas have you demonstrated market leadership? We started off small with one contract across a few casinos, and we are now a leader in Oklahoma, with a footprint in over two dozen casinos and gaming and/or bingo licenses in approx. 20 jurisdictions.

    Do you have an estimate as to the dollar size of this industrys market or within your specific niche (national or international)? Estimates on the participation-based gaming lease and supplier market are hard to pinpoint, but Oklahoma as a whole is a $3.7 billion gaming market, the third largest in the U.S. Tribal casinos as a whole, across the United States, generate almost $30 billion in gaming revenue, and slot machines generally account for 70% or more of this gaming revenue.

  • PAGE 7 OF 12

    With respect to the previous question, do you have an idea what percentage of this market you hold and what would be your target objective after three years? In terms of the total market, there are ~70,000 slot machines in Oklahoma and ~900,000 slot machines in the United States, of which we have less than ~3,000, after the acquisition of the Integrity Companies. The available market (slot machines that are leased by casinos rather than purchased outright, and small and mid-sized operators that may have difficulty sourcing capital), would be lower than the slot machine figures stated, but we would still have a small percentage of the market. The overall opportunity in the United States is very large and that is the reason we have focused our efforts here.

    Is this industry fragmented if so, any plans to consolidate it (pending available capital)? The participation-based gaming lease and supplier market is fragmented, and we continue to look for and evaluate opportunities to consolidate it.

    Does the company possess any significant barriers to entry for competitors (patents, etc.)? The company does not possess patents the manufacturers of the machines do. The primary barriers to entry are the establishment of relationships with the owners and operators of casinos and other gaming operators, the receipt of necessary regulatory approvals, and the establishment of approved customer relationships with gaming machine manufacturers.

    Are margins within this industry improving or on the decline through competition? Margins are currently stable. With our most recent contract, we have negotiated certain protections such that our margins are safeguarded in down markets. We may use this as a model for other contracts going forward.

    Financial Position and Corporate Structure

    List financings completed in the past year (date, price, amount): Private placement completed 4/29/15. CAD $4,625,130 raised at CAD $0.07 per share. July 2015 raised CAD $7.7 million at CAD $0.07 per share.

    If a financing was completed in the past four months, what date will that stock become free trading? For the private placement offering, four months from the date of issuance.

    Were warrants attached to the above financing, what price, and what is warrant expiry? None

    Are there any outstanding convertible debentures: If so, what is the conversion price/terms and due date? USD $7,732,000 principal amount, convertible at CAD $0.33 per share. Due March 2017, though can be retired/refinanced in March 2016 with no prepayment penalty.

    Options Outstanding & Average Strike Price: 15,820,000 options; wavg exercise price of CAD $0.20

    Warrants Outstanding & Average Strike Price: 7,638,740 warrants; wavg exercise price of CAD $0.17

    Fully Diluted Shares Outstanding: 345,489,260 current issued and outstanding; ~400 million fully diluted (including out-of-the-money securities).

    Potential proceeds of exercised warrants and options: CAD $4.57 million

    If management and director ownership (combined) is below 30%, what percentage of shares outstanding is owned by the CEO and what percentage of total outstanding options is owned by the CEO? ~3% of current shares outstanding; 19% of current options outstanding

    What total share percentage is owned by management & directors? ~ 20% Institutional Ownership? >28% (as per May 2015 stock exchange data)

  • PAGE 8 OF 12

    Explanation of the companys general policy with respect to the use of stock options for executive compensation. Are stock options tied to growth in share price or shareholder value, or does the company issue (or plan to issue) options annually as a percentage of total shares outstanding? Stock options are a part of the overall compensation package, and comprise a significant component of the Companys compensation of key employees. The current rolling stock option plan allows for the company to issue options up to 10% of the total shares outstanding.

    At our Annual General Meeting on June 18th

    we passed a proposal to replace the current rolling stock option plan with a fixed Restricted Share Unit plan (25 million RSUs) and a fixed stock option plan (to allow up to a total of 33 million stock options, which would be

  • PAGE 9 OF 12

    What efforts are being made (or proposed) to increase visibility of the company to the investment community (retail investors, brokers, institutions) over the next six to twelve months? Road shows including institutional investor meetings in Toronto and Vancouver. A comprehensive IR plan is being developed with ongoing IR initiatives as we grow as a company. Do you have a full time IR or Corporate Communications person working for the company? If not, who handles these inquiries? We work with National Equicom (formerly TMX Equicom) and GC Global who provide a variety of IR related services under contract. General inquiries go through the corporate phone number and are answered individually while email inquiries come directly to our head office and are followed up from there. In addition to the corporate website, does the company use any aspects of social media? We prefer to utilize Linkedin and we encourage shareholders (and prospective investors) to monitor our website at www.poydrasgaming.com. Our IR contact information is available on page 11 of this report. https://www.linkedin.com/company/poydras-gaming-finance-corp-

    Note that the charts and graphs utilized in this report originated from Poydras Gaming. If you find some of the text difficult to read, please visit their website to view the originals. You can find their corporate presentation here:

    http://www.poydrasgaming.com/investor-relations/corporate-presentation

    Investor Relations

  • PAGE 10 OF 12

    CEO Insight / Elevator Pitch

    At 10 cents per share Poydras has an enterprise value (EV) of approximately CAD $60 million with adjusted earnings (EBITDA) that will be in the range of USD $11 million or CAD $14.3 million. This gives us a trading multiple < 5 times (taking currency exchange difference into account) while industry average is closer to 8 times.

    Our goal is to become the go-to company for financing Native-American casinos and smaller scale casinos across the United States. For various reasons (including reluctance to provide banks with personal guarantees), it is difficult for these smaller operators to finance new machines, leasehold improvements and capital for construction or expansion. Poydras offers a proven, flexible finance and revenue share model that we believe will provide strong long term gains for our shareholders.

    While our low share price resulted in share dilution (to secure the Integrity acquisition in 2015), it allowed us to reach critical mass from a cash-flow perspective that will now allow us to become very competitive not only in attracting new business but securing low interest rate financings.

    Our initial target markets of Oklahoma, Texas, California and Louisiana provide us with the opportunity for growth this upcoming year but as we scale up our market penetration and grow cash-flow we have no shortage of opportunities across the United States and beyond.

    The acquisition of the Integrity Companies provided a twenty year (proven) business model that we now have the opportunity to cookie-cut across many geographic regions and markets.

    The gaming industry for small to mid-size casinos will remain robust as the baby-boomer generation has a proven passion for gaming machines. They also have significant disposable income and far less debt than younger generations. As they enjoy their retirement, a large percentage loves to spend time and money in casinos.

    As Poydras scales up the number of gaming machines on revenue-share, we hope to capitalize on the massive amounts of data we can collect and analyze. This will help us (and casino clients) determine which machines perform better when and where, what spending patterns are like, etc. Currently this type of information is collected by large casino operators like Caesars and Harrahs but it is something missing across smaller regional operators. We believe this will be one more unique aspect of our business that provides us with a competitive advantage.

  • PAGE 11 OF 12

    TSXV:PYD

    CAD 8 cents

    Website: www.poydrasgaming.com

    CEO: Peter Macy

    Phone: / Email: 604-683-8393 / [email protected]

    Investor Relations Contact: Robert Kelly

    [email protected]

    Corporate Head Office:

    104 Tiburon Blvd, Suite 150 Mill Valley, CA 94941

    .

  • PAGE 12 OF 12

    DISCLAIMER

    Equity Analyst and research report author Danny Deadlock DOES NOT own shares of Poydras Gaming (this includes family members or any company he is a manager or director of). Under contract with Stockhouse Publishing Ltd., Danny Deadlock receives (one time) financial compensation of $2,500 CDN to cover costs associated with Poydras Gaming research and report preparation. Poydras is a client of Stockhouse Publishing Ltd. Securities discussed in this report are high-risk, time and market sensitive. No statement or expression of opinion, or any other matter herein, directly or indirectly, is an offer, solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell any securities mentioned. While we (Danny Deadlock and Stockhouse Publishing Ltd.) believe all sources of information to be factual and reliable, we in no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof, nor the statements made herein. FORWARD LOOKING / CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS: Certain statements contained in this report may constitute forward-looking information and statements. All statements in this report, other than statements of historical fact, that address events or developments concerning Poydras that may occur, are "forward-looking information and statements". Forward-looking information and statements are often, but not always, identified by the use of words such as "seek", "anticipate", "plan", "continue", "estimate", "expect", "may", "will", "project", "predict", "propose", "potential", "targeting", "intend", "could", "might", "should", "believe", "budgeted", "scheduled and "forecasts", and similar expressions and variations (including negative variations). Forward-looking information and statements are necessarily based on estimates and assumptions that are inherently subject to known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause the public companys actual results, level of activity, performance or achievements to be materially different from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking information and statements. In preparing this report, several estimates and assumptions have been made. Many of these estimates and assumptions are based on factors and events that are not within the control of Danny Deadlock, Stockhouse Publishing Ltd., or Poydras and there is no assurance they will prove to be correct. Several risk factors may cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated in these forward-looking information and statements. Although Danny Deadlock believes the expectations and forecasts reflected in these and other forward-looking information and statements are reasonable, there can give no assurance they will prove to have been correct. Such expectations and forecasts can be affected by inaccurate assumptions or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. New factors emerge from time to time and it is not possible for Danny Deadlock to predict all such factors and to assess in advance the impact of such factor on the public companys business or the extent to which any factor, or combination of factors, may cause actual results that differ from those contained in any forward-looking information or statements. All of the forward-looking information and statements contained in this report are qualified by these cautionary statements. The reader of this report is cautioned not to place undue reliance on any forward-looking information and statements. Danny Deadlock and Stockhouse Publishing Ltd. expressly disclaims any intention or obligation to update or revise any forward-looking information and statements, whether as a result of new information, events or otherwise. This is not an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to purchase securities of Poydras. This report is intended to be educational in nature and for informational purposes only. The reader is cautioned that they should personally verify (validate) all information contained within this report. Danny Deadlock makes no guarantees (either direct or implied) that the information contained within this report is free of errors. Neither Danny Deadlock, Stockhouse Publishing Ltd. or any directors, officers, employees, agents or advisors makes any representation or warranty in respect of the contents of this report or otherwise. In particular, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the fairness, accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained herein, which have not been independently verified. No person shall have any right of action (except in case of fraud) against Danny Deadlock, Stockhouse Publishing Ltd. or any other person in relation to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in this report. The information contained in this report is provided as at the date hereof and is subject to amendment, revision and updating in any way without notice or liability to any party. While Danny Deadlock has used best efforts to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information presented, such information has NOT been independently audited or verified and Danny Deadlock (or any affiliated companies) assumes no responsibility for its accuracy. The forward-looking information contained in this document is expressly qualified by this cautionary statement Neither Danny Deadlock nor Stockhouse Publishing are brokers, dealers, or investment advisors. Readers are cautioned to conduct their own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decisions. Danny Deadlock and/or Stockhouse will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by a readers reliance on information obtained in this report. Readers are solely responsible for their own investment decisions. Owners or employees of Stockhouse Publishing may hold positions in Poydras but this information is unknown to Danny Deadlock. Copyright 2015 all rights reserved.

    The Due Diligence Study (Questionnaire) utilized and contained within this research report is Exclusive (copyright) to Equity Analyst Inc. (Danny Deadlock, CEO). Danny Deadlock Contact Information: www.linkedin.com/in/dannydeadlock