dan wellings: public confidence in the nhs: where are we now?

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Public Confidence in the NHS: where are we now? Dan Wellings, Research Director @danwellings

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Base: representative sample of c.1,000 British adults age 18+ each month, interviewed face-to-face in home Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index

Issues Facing Britain: Long Term Trends

What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today?

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10

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30

40

50

60

70

May 1997

May 1998

May 1999

May 2000

May 2001

May 2002

May 2003

May 2004

May 2005

May 2006

May 2007

May 2008

May 2009

May 2010

May 2011

May 2012

Unemployment

NHS Crime/ Law & Order

Race / immigration

Economy

3

Base: representative sample of c.1,000 British adults age 18+ each month, interviewed face-to-face in home Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index

Worth reflecting on what has happened since May 2010 What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today?

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70

80

May 1997

May 1998

May 1999

May 2000

May 2001

May 2002

May 2003

May 2004

May 2005

May 2006

May 2007

May 2008

May 2009

May 2010

May 2011

May 2012

Blair tells doctors “not enough” has been done for the NHS –

allocates extra £20 billion. Report says waiting lists have doubled

under Labour

Blair – “We have underfunded the NHS for years and we are paying the price for

it” – BBC NHS day

Alan Milburn promises 35,000 more nurses, 40 new hospitals and

development of foundation trusts as part of NHS plan

General Election – “Battle of

Margaret’s shoulder”

Hewitt heckled at UNISON conference – fears over NHS

job cuts

Lowest score since

December 1985

London Bombs

Brown becomes PM

Cameron becomes PM

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69

17

52

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40

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70

80

Q Overall, how satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the running of the National Health Service nowadays?

Satisfaction with the NHS has held up remarkably well, what impact will Mid Staffs have?

Base: Adults aged 16+ in England (c. 1000 per wave) Source: Ipsos MORI/DH Perceptions of the NHS Tracker

% Satisfied

Dissatisfied

Net satisfied

Net satisfaction scores are calculated by subtracting the proportion of people who are dissatisfied from the proportion of people who are satisfied.

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Q. Overall, how satisfied are you with the running of the National Health Service nowadays? (Ipsos MORI) Q. How satisfied or dissatisfied would you say you are with the way in which the National Health Service is run nowadays? (BSAS)

It is not only the question but also the context that is important. What else is the survey about?

Source: Ipsos MORI/The King’s Fund

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100

Sat

isfie

d (%

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Ipsos MORI NHS Tracker British Social Attitudes Survey

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here Which one is the best measure? Do we disregard satisfaction?

Source: Ipsos MORI/The King’s Fund

88 70

58

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100

Overall, how would you describe your experience of your GP surgery?

Overall, how satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the running of the National

Health Service nowadays?

How satisfied or dissatisfied would you say you are with the way in which the

National Health Service runs nowadays?

% S

atis

fied/

Goo

d

Base: GPPS: 1,037,946 respondents surveyed between July 2011 and March 2012; Public Perceptions of the NHS and Social Care Tracker: 1,001 respondents interviewed between 14th November and 9th December 2011; British Social Attitudes Survey: 3,311 respondents interviewed between 4th July and10th November 2011

GPPS Public Perceptions of the NHS and Social

Care Tracker

British Social Attitudes Survey

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Q To what extent, if at all, do you agree or disagree with the following statements?

This illustrates how important the question is


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The government has the right policies for the NHS

The NHS is providing a good service nationally

My local NHS is providing me with a good service % Agree

75 65

22

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Version 1 | Internal Use Only

Do we have different expectations of the NHS? A generational shift BSA 1983-2010

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here Net satisfaction with the NHS by generation

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

1983 1984 1986 1987 1989 1990 1991 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Pre War (born before 1945) Baby Boomers (born 1945-1965) Generation X (born 1966-1979) Generation Y (born 1980 onwards)

Data: BSA 1983-2010. Each data point represents >100 respondents

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here So what impact will the changing demographic have on satisfaction?

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

83 84 85 86 87 89 90 91 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

% sample universe from pre war generation

% Generation Y

% Generation x

% Baby boomers 1983: All adults aged 39 and over

Proportion of UK population from each generational grouping

Source: Eurostat

2010: All adults aged over 66

1983: All adults aged under 39

2010: All adults aged between 45

and 65

2010: All adults aged between 44

and 31

2010: All adults aged under 31

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Q Overall, how satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the running of the National Health Service nowadays?

Is this about service received or expectations?

Base: Adults in England aged 16+, Summer 2012: Ipsos MORI aggregate analysis (22422)

% Satisfied

Source: Ipsos MORI/DH Perceptions of the NHS Tracker

North East North West

Yorks & Humber

South West

East Midlands

West Midlands London Eastern

South East

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As you may know, a report was published this week into problems at Mid Staffordshire hospital that said this led to between 400 and 1,200 more deaths than expected between 2005 and 2009. Who of the following, if any, do you think was most to blame for the patient care problems at Mid Staffordshire hospital?

Who was most to blame for Mid-Staffs?

Base: Adults aged 18+ in Great Britain, 1018 Respondents – Telephone Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor, 9th-11th Feb 2013

52%

16%

11%

7%

3%

9%

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

NHS Managers

Government Ministers

Health Regulators

Nurses

Doctors

None

Don't Know

*

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What impact does our proximity to the NHS have on our perception of satisfaction?

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here What you see is all there is

“The confidence that individuals have in their beliefs depends mostly on the quality of the story they can tell about what they see, even if they see little. We often fail to allow for the possibility that evidence that should be critical to our judgement is missing – what we see is all there is”

Daniel Kahneman Thinking, Fast and

Slow

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Q How much do you feel you know about the changes the government is making to the NHS?

We really did not know very much about the reforms…


December 2010

December 2011

Spring 2012

73%

67%

67%

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Q Please tell me whether on the whole you agree or disagree with each of the following statements:

Pride in the NHS is the highest it’s ever been


77

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100% agree

Britain’s National Health Service is one of the best in the world

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79

51

51

39

21

10

10

9

4

*

1

The NHS/health care Schools

Care for the elderly The Police

Social services Benefit payments

Local authority services Defence

Overseas aid None of these

Don't know

NHS is the area of public spending that we most want protected

Base: All who think some services should be protected (809) Source: Ipsos MORI/Nuffield Trust

Q. “Which TWO or THREE, if any, of the following main areas of public spending do you think should be protected from any cuts?”

-3

-7

+5 +4 +6

+2

+4 -4 -1

Change from June ‘09

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0

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Which two or three of the following, if any, would you say makes you most proud to be British?

In the “marrow of our bones”

45 40

38 36

16 10

6 6

4 4

3 2

1 6

5

0 10 20 30 40 50

The NHS The Armed Forces

Team GB The Royal Family

BBC Nothing

British Business Houses of Parliament

Marks & Spencer John Lewis

Oxfam Women's Institute

Tesco's Other

Don't Know

Base: 2515 British Adults 16-75, Online Fieldwork conducted between 23rd-27th November 2012 Source: British Future Polling – State of the Nation 2012/3, Ipsos MORI

%

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here Conclusions and thoughts for the panel

• What impact will Mid Staffs have on perceptions and for how

long?

• Are patient expectations as high as we think or do we just hear about those that are?

• What is the difference between vocal minority and overall views?

• How do you get people to expect more?

• Does our devotion to the NHS make change more difficult?

dan wellings: public confidence in the nhs: where are we now?

Health & Medicine