dampak el niño dan bencana asap terhadap perekonomian … · 2015. 12. 2. · don’t...
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Dampak El Niño dan Bencana Asap terhadap Perekonomian Indonesia
Faisal Basri 5 November 2015
http://www.emergencyscene.com/cms/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/INDONESIA-HAZE.jpg
The Numbers: Indonesia’s Haze
Fires raged on peatlands on the outskirts of Palangkaraya, Indonesia, on November 1, 2015. PHOTO: GETTY IMAGES The Wall Street Journal
Don’t underestimate the impact of El Niño
The latest forecast released on August 13, 2015 by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)’s Climate Prediction Center, this year's El Niño is "significant and strengthening."
El Niño is a warming of the eastern Pacific Ocean, mainly along the Equator, which indicates waters that are warmer than normal.
These warmer waters are normally confined to the western Pacific by winds that blow from east to west, pushing the warmer water toward Indonesia and Australia.
More rain in North and South America comes at the expense of normally rainy Southern Asia and Australia, which become abnormally dry and experience droughts.
Source: http://edition.cnn.com/2015/08/13/weather/el-nino-2015/index.html
Direct economic costs
Businesses take heat from haze in Indonesia: the economic cost of the fires will likely run into billions of dollars.
Producers of palm oil, rubber and paper are bracing for a financial hit from months of fires and choking haze smothering Indonesia.
The biggest outbreak of fires since 1997 has devastated 3 million hectares of land and polluted the air, damaging agricultural regions.
Source: http://www.wsj.com/articles/businesses-take-heat-from-haze-in-indonesia-1446554641
Dampak terhadap perusahaan penerbangan dan mobilitas manusia dan barang
Selama triwulan III (Juli-September), sekitar 3.000 penerbangan berjadwal mengalami pembatalan: Garuda sekitar 2.000 penerbangan, Citilink sekitar 600 penerbangan, dan lainnya sekitar 500 penerbangan.
Perjalanan bisnis ke Sumatera dan Kalimantan anjlok, berdampak terhadap berbagai sektor, misalnya terutama hotel dan restoran.
Hampir tidak ada sektor yang terbebas dari dampak negatif bencana asap.
Pada gilirannya merembet ke seantero negeri, bahkan ke negara-negara tetanga.
Economic growth by island: Kalimantan and Sumatera suffered the most
2014: 4.7 Q1-15: 3.5 Q2-15: 2.8 Share = 22.3%
2014: 5.6 Q1-15: 5.2 Q2-15: 5.1 Share = 58.4%
2014: 5.9 Q1-15: 8.9 Q2-15: 8.9 Share = 3.0%
2014: 3.2 Q1-15: 1.1 Q2-15: 1.5 Share = 8.2% 2014: 6.9
Q1-15: 7.3 Q2-15: 8.6 Share = 5.9%
2014: 4.3 Q1-15: 3.7 Q2-15: 10.2 Share = 2.2%
Trade deficit: food products
Sources: BPS-Statistics Indonesia.
US$
bill
ion
s
Ekspor sudah empat tahun terus merosot. Bencana asap membuat kian terpuruk
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015* 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015*
Total export 203.5 190.0 182.6 176.3 115.1 29.0 -6.6 -3.9 -3.4 -13.3
Non-oil and gas 162.0 153.1 149.9 146.0 100.7 24.9 -5.5 -2.0 -2.6 -7.9
Oil and gas 41.5 37.0 32.6 30.3 14.4 48.3 -10.9 -11.8 -7.0 -38.6
Total import 177.4 191.7 186.6 178.2 107.9 30.7 8.0 -2.6 -4.5 -19.7
Non-oil and gas 136.7 149.1 141.4 134.7 88.5 26.2 9.0 -5.2 -4.7 -12.6
Oil and gas 40.7 42.6 45.3 43.4 19.4 48.4 4.6 6.4 -4.0 -41.2
Surplus (Deficit) 26.1 (-1.6) (-4.1) (-1.9) 7.2
Non-oil and gas 25.3 4.0 8.6 11.3 12.2
Oil and gas 0.8 (-5.6) (-12.6) (-13.1) -5.0
Billion US$ Growth (yoy)
Description
* January-September. Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia.
Trade account
Sembilan komoditas primer sumbang hampir separuh ekspor Indonesia
Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia
Kian runyam dengan ancaman boikot
12 Products To Boycott Because You Are A Haze-Hating Singaporean (http://mustsharenews.com/asia-paper-products/)
Many will boycott products from haze-causing firms: Poll (http://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/environment/many-will-boycott-products-from-
haze-causing-firms-poll)
To resolve haze woes, boycott palm oil products (http://www.straitstimes.com/forum/letters-in-print/to-resolve-haze-woes-boycott-palm-oil-products)
The Haze: Time to Boycott Indonesia and all it's Products (https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/haze-time-boycott-indonesia-all-its-products-chris-j-reed-
black?trk=pulse-det-nav_art)
Impor beras bakal meroket
* January-August. ** Prediction. Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia and prediction
1,356
645
1,805
1,429
237190
438
1,407
290 251
688
2,751
1,810
473
844
225
1,500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
Thousand t
ons
Harga beras merangkak naik
Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia.
Jul Aug Sep Premium 8.71 9.57 13.64 Medium 8.94 9.13 10.01 Low 8.98 12.77 17.84 Retail 10.49 11.58 13.43
Growth rate (y-o-y), 2015
Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia.
Kenaikan harga beras sangat sensitif terhadap peningkatan jumlah penduduk miskin
Jumlah penduduk miskin sudah naik sebelum bencana asap. Per Maret 215 = 28.59 juta (11.22%)
60.0
11.3
24.2
17.8
11.111.2
0
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20
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* March and September average ** March Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia.
Perc
ent
of
popula
tion
Trendline-polynomial
Weighted total of all category scores (0-100 where 100 = most favourable)
Source: Economist Intelligence Unit, Global Food Security Index 2012-2015.
Global food security index, 2012-2015
Country 2012 2013 2014 2015 2012 2013 2014 2015 United States 1 1 1 1 89.5 86.8 89.3 89.0 Singapore .. 16 5 2 .. 79.9 84.3 88.2 Germany 10 11 8 8 83.0 81.7 83.7 83.9 France 4 3 10 9 86.8 83.7 83.4 83.8 United Kingdom 20 20 16 15 79.0 77.3 81.6 81.6 Israel 22 17 17 19 77.7 78.4 80.6 78.9 Japan 16 18 21 21 80.7 77.8 77.8 77.4 South Korea 21 24 25 26 77.8 71.1 73.2 74.8 Malaysia 33 34 34 34 63.9 64.5 68.0 69.0 Brazil 31 29 33 36 67.6 67.0 68.1 67.4 South Africa 40 39 46 41 61.7 61.0 61.1 64.5 China 38 42 42 42 62.5 60.2 62.2 64.2 Russia 29 40 40 43 68.3 60.9 62.7 63.8 Thailand 45 45 49 52 57.9 58.9 59.9 60.0 Vietnam 55 60 67 65 50.4 48.6 49.1 53.4 India 66 70 69 68 45.0 44.4 48.3 50.9 Philippines 63 64 65 72 47.1 46.9 49.4 49.4 Indonesia 64 66 72 74 46.8 45.6 46.5 46.7 Congo (Dem. Rep.) 105 107 109 105 18.4 20.8 24.8 30.1
Rank Score
Ke depan ….
Manusia tidak bisa melawan alam. Cara menyikapinya yang bisa mengurangi bencana kemanusiaan.
Pembaruan hukum atau penguatan institusi sebagai basis penyusunan kebijakan public yang proper.
Peranan teknologi
Mitigasi bencana
Terima Kasih
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