dammed or damned: the role of hydropower in the water and energy nexus

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Andrea Castelletti Dipartimento di Elettronica, Informazione, e Bioingegneria, Politecnico di Milano, Milano, Italy Institute of Environmental Engineering ETH-Z, Zurich Dammed or damned: the role of hydropower in the water and energy nexus E4D Winter School 2005 323 January 2015 Son La Dam Vietnam, 2012

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Page 1: Dammed or damned: the role of hydropower in the water and energy nexus

Andrea Castelletti Dipartimento di Elettronica, Informazione, e Bioingegneria, Politecnico di Milano, Milano, Italy Institute of Environmental Engineering ETH-Z, Zurich

Dammed or damned: the role of hydropower in the water and energy nexus

E4D  Winter  School  2005  3-­‐23  January  2015    

Son La Dam Vietnam, 2012

Page 2: Dammed or damned: the role of hydropower in the water and energy nexus

Outline

•  What is water-energy nexus?

•  Hydropower and the nexus

•  An added challenge: global change

•  What can we do: the soft path approach

•  Case study

•  Conclusions

Page 3: Dammed or damned: the role of hydropower in the water and energy nexus

Outline

•  What is water-energy nexus?

•  Hydropower and the nexus

•  An added challenge: global change

•  What can we do: the soft path approach

•  Case study

•  Conclusions

Page 4: Dammed or damned: the role of hydropower in the water and energy nexus

The water and energy (watergy) nexus

                                                                                                         

                                                                                                         

water needs energy Water production, processing, distribution, and end-use require energy •  Extraction •  Treatment (drinking/waste) •  Distribution •  Use

energy needs water Energy production requires water •  Hydropower •  Thermo electric cooling •  Mineral Extraction and refining •  Fuel production (fossil, non-

fossil, and biofuel) •  Emission control

Source: adapted from WWAP, 2014

Page 5: Dammed or damned: the role of hydropower in the water and energy nexus

Energy needs water

Source: IEA, 2012

•  Energy production consumes 15% of water withdrawals

More than 580 billion m3 withdrawn every year (the average

annual discharge of the River Gange), of which 66 billion is

consumed)

Page 6: Dammed or damned: the role of hydropower in the water and energy nexus

Energy needs water

Source: IEA, 2012

•  Energy production consumes 15% of water withdrawals

More than 580 billion m3 withdrawn every year (the average

annual discharge of the River Gange), of which 66 billion is

consumed)

•  Thermal power plants (roughly 80% of global electricity

production) is responsible for:

•  43% of total water withdrawals in Europe,

•  50% in the US, and

•  more than 10% in China.

Page 7: Dammed or damned: the role of hydropower in the water and energy nexus

Energy needs water

89

Section II – Water for Energy

Figure 23. Flow Chart of Embedded Water in Energy

ExtractionMining, drilling(oil, natural gas)

Biomass

WastewaterCollection,

treatment anddischarge or reuse

Resource

Raw MaterialRefining

Coal, petrol, natural gas,

uranium, biofuels

RenewableEnergy

Wind, solar,hydroelectric, tidal

Water Source(e.g., lakes, rivers,

aquifiers, sea)

Energy RecyclingCogeneration,desalination

Transport &Transmission

Pipelines,waterways

End UseIndustrial

CommercialResidential

Public UtilitiesTransportation

EnergyGeneration

Discharge Water

Transportation Fuels, Natural Gas

Note: Water inputs and outputs may be in different water bodies.

1. Cooling Technologies

1.1 Once-Through (Open-Loop) CoolingOnce-through cooling uses an ample supply of water

(from an ocean, river, lake, cooling pond or canal) to run through the system’s heat exchanger to condense the low-pressure steam at the exhaust of the turbines (Figure 24). Water is returned to the water body about 10°C to 20°C warmer. Until the 1970s, thermoelectric power plants commonly used water withdrawal intensive open-loop cooling and were built next to abundant surface waters near large population centers (U.S. DOE, 2006). These are cheap and sturdy systems (about $20/kW – EPRI, 2007). Today, open-loop cooling power plants account for about 31 percent of U.S. generating capacity.

Although these plants do not consume much water (i.e., they return about 99 percent of the water to the source), the availability of water is critical to plant operation because of the huge demand. This makes these plants extremely vulnerable to droughts,

high-temperature events and competition for water resources. This is particularly exacerbated by the fact that electricity demand is disproportionately high in water-scarce areas such as the Southwest. Moreover, the large intake of water is extremely disruptive for aquatic life, and the discharge temperatures alter aquatic ecosystems considerably. The intake structures kill millions of fish and other aquatic organisms per plant each year and the discharge of heated water can be particularly lethal to native aquatic species. The 1972 Federal Water Pollution Control Act and Section 316(a) of the Clean Water Act (regulating intake structures and thermal pollution discharges) placed restrictions on the impact of open-loop cooling. Following this act, construction of open-loop cooling power plants slowed abruptly. Only 10 such power plants have been built since 1980, mainly along the coast (U.S. DOE, 2006).

Source: adapted from Wilkinson, 2000

Page 8: Dammed or damned: the role of hydropower in the water and energy nexus

Energy needs water

29WWDR 2014 ENERGY’S THIRST FOR WATER

In some places, water is used for transporting fuels, such as waterways throughout Europe and many parts of Asia that float barges carrying coal from mines to power plants. In other places water is used to permit coal slurry to be transported from coal mines to power plants through pipelines.

Energy accounts for a significant fraction of a country’s water use (both consumptive and non-consumptive). In developing countries, 10% to 20% of withdrawals are used to meet industrial needs, including energy (Boberg, 2005). In some developed countries, where a smaller fraction is used for agriculture, more than 50% of water withdrawals are used for power plant cooling alone (Section 3.3.1).

The following sections describe the potential implications and impacts of energy production on water and examine supply and demand trends for different forms of primary energy8 and electrical power generation.

3.2 Primary energyWater is used to produce fuels in the extractive industries in a variety of ways, each requiring different quantities of water (Figure 3.1). For example, many coal seams need to be dewatered before mining can commence. That water use is often classed as consumptive because the water might not subsequently be available for other uses. Water is also used for leaching minerals in uranium mining, with significant impacts on the downstream environment. Significant volumes of water are used for oil and gas production. Generally, biofuels require more water per unit energy than extracted fuels because of the water needed for photosynthesis, and unconventional fossil fuels require more water than conventional fossil fuels.

There is evidence that demand for all types of primary energy will increase over the period 2010–2035 (IEA, 2012a) (Figure 3.2). Despite the ongoing progress of ‘clean’ technology policies promoting renewables, the world’s global energy system appears to remain on a relatively fixed path with respect to its continued reliance on fossil fuels. A shift away from oil and coal (and, in some

FIG

URE

3.1 Water withdrawals and consumption vary for fuel production

* The minimum is for primary recovery; the maximum is for secondary recovery. ** The minimum is for in-situ production, the maximum is for surface mining. *** Includes carbon dioxide injection, steam injection and alkaline injection and in-situ combustion. **** Excludes water use for crop residues allocated to food production.Note: toe, tonne of oil equivalent (1 toe = 11.63 MWh = 41.9 GJ). Ranges shown are for ‘source-to-carrier’ primary energy production, which includes withdrawals and consumption for extraction, processing and transport. Water use for biofuels production varies considerably because of differences in irrigation needs among regions and crops; the minimum for each crop represents non-irrigated crops whose only water requirements are for processing into fuels. EOR, enhanced oil recovery. For numeric ranges, see http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org.Source: IEA (2012a, fig. 17.3, p. 507, based on sources cited therein). World Energy Outlook 2012 © OECD/IEA.

101

Sugar cane ethanol

Cornethanol

Soybean

Rapeseed

Palm oil

Lignocellulosic

Refined oil

Coal-to-liquids

Gas-to-liquids

Refined oil

Refined oil

Shale gas

Coal

Conventional gas

Litres per toe<1

WithdrawalConsumption

102 103 104 105 106 107

biodiesel

biodiesel

biodiesel

ethanol****

(EOR)***

(oil sands)**

(conventional)*

8 The term ‘primary energy’ is associated with any energy source that is extracted from a stock of natural resources or captured from a flow of resources and that has not undergone any transformation or conversion other than separation and cleaning. Examples include coal, crude oil, natural gas, solar power and nuclear power. ‘Secondary energy’ refers to any energy that is obtained from a primary energy source by a transformation or conversion process. Thus oil products or electricity are secondary energies as these require refining or electric generators to produce them (IEA, 2004).

countries, nuclear power) is expected in OECD countries, where energy demand is not expected to rise appreciably. Despite the growth in low carbon sources of energy, however, fossil fuels are expected to remain dominant in the global energy mix (IEA, 2012a).

36

plants tend to be less efficient and thus consume more water (using the same cooling system under similar meteorological conditions).

[ See Chapter 21 (Volume 2) for the case study ‘Water use efficiency in thermal power plants in India’. ]

For power plants with similar efficiency levels, the cooling system used will determine how much water is required. The three most prevalent cooling methods are open-loop, closed-loop and dry cooling (hybrid wet-dry systems exist, but are not widely used). Open-loop, or once-through, cooling withdraws large volumes of surface water, fresh and saline, for one-time use and returns nearly all the water to the source with little being consumed by evaporation (Figure 3.8). Closed-loop cooling requires less water withdrawal, as the water is recirculated through use of cooling towers or evaporation ponds, leading to much higher water consumption (Table 3.2) (Stillwell et al., 2011).

Dry cooling does not require water, but instead cools by use of fans that move air over a radiator (similar to those in automobiles). Power plant efficiency is lower, and this option is often the least attractive economically. While dry cooling is less effective in warmer and dryer climates, such installations do operate in warm and dry areas, including China, Morocco, South Africa and south-western USA, because these systems offer resilience against drought, but have parasitic losses on power plant output. It has been estimated that cost reductions of 25% to 50% are needed for air cooled condensers (ACC) to become economically competitive in most regions of the world (Ku and Shapiro, 2012).

The volatility of price fluctuations of the three main fuels for thermal power generation – coal, natural gas and oil – renders the projection of future trends in plant development and related fuel consumption problematic. The future energy mix is likely to be determined by factors such as developments in the exploration and production of unconventional oil and gas, the economic implications of these developments, and their impact on the market price of fuels. The future of unconventional gas is itself uncertain, according to the IEA (2012a, p. 125): ‘the prospects for unconventional gas production worldwide remain uncertain and depend, particularly, on whether governments and industry can develop and apply rules that effectively earn the industry a “social

* Includes trough, tower and Fresnel technologies using tower, dry and hybrid cooling, and Stirling technology. ** Includes binary, flash and enhanced geothermal system technologies using tower, dry and hybrid cooling.Notes: Ranges shown are for the operational phase of electricity generation, which includes cleaning, cooling and other process related needs; water used for the production of input fuels is excluded. Fossil steam includes coal-, gas- and oil-fired power plants operating on a steam cycle. Reported data from power plant operations are used for fossil-steam once-through cooling; other ranges are based on estimates summarized in the sources cited. Solar PV, solar photovoltaic; CSP, concentrating solar power; CCGT, combined-cycle gas turbine; IGCC, integrated gasification combined-cycle; CCS, carbon capture and storage. For numeric ranges, see http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org.Source: IEA (2012a, fig. 17.4, p. 510, from sources cited therein). World Energy Outlook 2012 © OECD/IEA.

FIG

URE

3.8 Water use for electricity generation by cooling technology

Nuclear

Fossil steam

Gas CCGT

Nuclear

Fossil steam

Gas CCGT

Nuclear

Fossil steam (CCS)

Fossil steam

Coal IGCC (CCS)

Coal IGCC

Gas CCGT (CCS)

Gas CCGT

Gas CCGT

Geothermal**

Litres per MWh

Wind

Solar PV

CSP*

Oth

er/n

one

Dry

Co

olin

g to

wer

Cool

ing

pond

O

nce-

th

roug

h

101 <1 102 103 104 105 106

Withdrawal

Consumption

Several factors determine how much cooling water is needed by thermal power plants, including the fuel type, cooling system design and prevailing meteorological conditions. However, efficiency is often the main factor that drives water requirements: the more efficient the power plant, the less heat has to be dissipated, thus less cooling is required (Delgado, 2012). Older power

STATUS, TRENDS AND CHALLENGESCHAPTER 3

Primary production Energy generation

Source: IEA, 2012

Page 9: Dammed or damned: the role of hydropower in the water and energy nexus

Water needs energy

•  Water related energy consumption is estimated to be about

2-3% of worldwide energy production

Page 10: Dammed or damned: the role of hydropower in the water and energy nexus

Water needs energy

•  California consumes approximately 20%of the state’s electricity,

and 30% of the state’s non-power plant natural gas

(source: California Energy Commission)

•  Running the hot water faucet for 5 minutes uses about the same

amount of energy as burning a 60-watt bulb for 14 hours

(source US-EPA)

•  Water related energy consumption is estimated to be about

2-3% of worldwide energy production

Page 11: Dammed or damned: the role of hydropower in the water and energy nexus

Water needs energy

21

Section I – Energy for Water

Figure 11. Water Flowchart (Highlighting Source)

SourceLakes, reservoirs,

aquifers

WaterTreatment

WaterDistribution

Water Extractionand Conveyance

Recycled WaterDistribution

Recycled WaterTreatment

End UseAgriculture

Energy ProductionIndustrial

CommercialResidential

Leaks

WastewaterTreatment

EnergyProduction

BiogasNitrous oxide

Net LossDischarge to

ocean

Net LossEvaporationTranspiration

WastewaterCollection

Leaks

Storm Water

Recycled Water

Leaks

Leaks

Discharge Water

Direct Use (Irrigation, energy production, industrial)

RawWater

RawWater

PotableWater

Wastewater

Discharge Water

BiosolidsBiogas

Source: Adapted from Wilkinson, 2000

1. Water Conveyance

Research on the energy use of water conveyance clearly reveals that U.S. water conveyance systems – the networks of canals, pipes and pumps that carry water from one place to another – are in some places energy intensive, while energy producing in others. One of the fundamental determinants of the energy intensity of any particular water supply is the relationship between the elevation of where water is sourced and where it is used. Water volume and the distance the water travels are other key factors. As population expands into places where water must be imported, water supplies become more energy intensive. Most water-transfer

systems, which are used to import water to these areas, have both pumps and generators to get water up and over hills and mountains and do allow for the recapture of some energy lost in pumps. Whether a system is a net consumer or producer of energy depends upon the relationship between geographical characteristics, e.g., elevation, and a particular system’s ability to both utilize and capture energy (Bennett et al., 2010a&b; GEI, 2012; Gleick, 1994). As the climate changes, altered precipitation patterns could affect water conveyance and storage infrastructure, as their original locations may no longer be where the needs are.

Source: adapted from Wilkinson, 2000

Page 12: Dammed or damned: the role of hydropower in the water and energy nexus

Water needs energy

24

these calculations do not take environmental flows into account, necessary for the future delivery of water supply and water-based ecosystem services.

2.3 Energy requirements for water provisionEnergy is required for two components of water provision: pumping and treatment. The energy needed for pumping water depends on elevation change (including depth in the case of groundwater), distance, pipe diameter and friction. Pumping water requires a lot of energy because of its high density. The amount of energy needed in water and wastewater treatment processes varies greatly and is dependent upon factors such as the quality of the source water, the nature of any contamination, and the types of treatment used by the facility (Section 7.3).

Different levels of treatment are required for different uses. Drinking water typically requires extensive treatment, and once used, it needs to be treated again to reach a standard safe for return to the environment. Many of these steps are highly energy intensive. Some treatment processes, such as ultraviolet (UV), consume relatively little energy (0.01–0.04 kWh/m3). More sophisticated techniques, such as reverse osmosis, require larger amounts (1.5–3.5 kWh/m3). Water for agriculture generally requires little or no treatment, so energy requirements are mainly for pumping (Section 6.4). Globally, the amount of energy used for irrigation is directly related to the enormous quantities of water required for irrigation and the irrigation methods used.

Co-operation and Development (OECD) accounting for 90% of demand (IEA, 2012a) (Chapter 3).

According to the OECD, in the absence of new policies (i.e. the Baseline Scenario), freshwater availability will be increasingly strained through 2050, with 2.3 billion more people than today (in total more than 40% of the global population) projected to be living in areas subjected to severe water stress, especially in North and South Africa and South and Central Asia. Global water demand in terms of water withdrawals is projected to increase by some 55% due to growing demands from manufacturing (400%), thermal electricity generation (140%) and domestic use (130%) (OECD, 2012a) (Figure 2.1). It should be noted that

Note: BRIICS, Brazil, Russia, India, Indonesia, China, South Africa; OECD, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development; ROW, rest of the world. This graph only measures ‘blue water’ demand and does not consider rainfed agriculture.Source: OECD (2012a, fig. 5.4, p. 217, output from IMAGE). OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050 © OECD.

FIGUR

E

2.1 Global water demand (freshwater withdrawals): Baseline Scenario, 2000 and 2050

ElectricityManufacturing

LivestockDomesticIrrigation

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

km3

2000 2050OECD

2000 2050BRIICS

2000 2050ROW

2000 2050World

Note: This diagram does not incorporate critical elements such as the distance the water is transported or the level of efficiency, which vary greatly from site to site. Source: WBSCD (2009, fig. 5, p. 14, based on source cited therein).

FIGUR

E2.2 Amount of energy required to provide 1 m3

water safe for human consumption from various water sources

The global demand for water is expected to grow significantly for all major water use sectors, with the largest proportion of this growth occurring in countries with developing or emerging economies.

CHAPTER 2 STATUS, TRENDS AND CHALLENGES

Source: WBSCD, 2009

Amount of energy for 1 m3 of safe water

Page 13: Dammed or damned: the role of hydropower in the water and energy nexus

Water needs energy

64

the technologies used. Electricity costs are estimated at 5% to 30% of the total operating cost of water and wastewater utilities (World Bank, 2012b), but in some developing countries such as India and Bangladesh, it is as high as 40% of the total operating cost (Van Den Berg and Danilenko, 2011). A survey of water and wastewater management in 71 Indian cities found that electricity is the single highest cost for water utilities. In some cities, such as Jodhpur, where water is pumped and transported from the Indira Gandhi Canal more than 200 km away, electricity cost is as high as 77% of the total operating cost (Narain, 2012). As cities continue to grow, they will have to go further or dig deeper to obtain water, which will further increase demand for energy, particularly in developing countries where energy is already in short supply and in many cases expensive. Energy supply will therefore have direct implications on availability as well as affordability of water in the rapidly growing cities of developing countries in the future.

In urban water supply and wastewater management systems, water conveyance and the use of advanced water treatment options are generally the most energy intensive activities (Figure 7.3). Water reuse may also require significant energy, depending on the technology used, but this is still less energy intensive than desalination or transporting water over extremely long distances (Lazarova et al., 2012).

but in developing countries where the per capita energy consumption in rural areas is very low, urban residents have much higher per capita energy consumption. For example, the per capita energy use in urban China is almost twice as high as the national average due to higher average incomes and better access to modern energy services in the cities (IEA, 2008b). More than 90% of the future urbanization will happen in developing countries, resulting in a huge increase in global energy demand, which in turn will result in increasing water demand. The IEA (2012a) predicts that the water needs for energy production will grow at twice the rate of energy demand. The rapid growth of cities will therefore result in serious challenges associated with access to both water and energy in cities and their surrounding areas.

7.3 The water–energy nexus in the urban contextWater supply and wastewater management are significant consumers of energy in the urban context. The United States Environmental Protection Agency estimates that the supply of treated water and wastewater management consumes 3% of the total energy use by cities in the USA, but in some states (e.g. California) it can be as high as 20% (Novotny, 2012). The amount of energy required at each step varies significantly depending on site-specific conditions including distance to the water source, its quality (and in the case of groundwater, its depth), and

Note: GWRS, groundwater replenishment system; WWTP, wastewater treatment plant. Source: Lazarova et al. (2012, fig. 23.1, p. 316, adapted from sources cited therein). © IWA Publishing, reproduced with permission.

FIG

URE

7.3 Typical energy footprint of the major steps in water cycle management with examples from different treatment plants using specific technologies

5

4

3

2

1

0

2.5 kWh/m3,State WaterProject, CA

0.35 kWh/m3,Strass WWTP,

Austria

2.5

1.5

0.24 0.3 0.4 0.6

1.4

2.5 2.5

1.5

2.5

0.3

1.2

5.0

4.0

0.1 0.2 0.05 0.160.24 0.25 0.3

0.50.2

1.0

1.4 1.41.1

0.53 kWh/m3,GWRS, Orange

County, CA

2.9 kWh/m3,Desalination

Ashkelon,Israel

Waterconveyance

Watertreatment

Waterdistribution

Preliminarytreatment

Tricklingfilters

Activatedsludge

Activatedsludge withnitrification

Membranebioreactor

Water reuse Brackishwater

desalination

Seawaterdesalination

Rainwaterharvesting

Ener

gy c

onsu

mpt

ion

(kW

h/m

3 )

THEMATIC FOCUSCHAPTER 7

Source: Lazarova et al. 2012

Typical energy footprint of the major steps in the water cycle

Page 14: Dammed or damned: the role of hydropower in the water and energy nexus

Implications and benefits of the nexus

•  Nexus implies that decisions made in one domain affect the

other and viceversa

Page 15: Dammed or damned: the role of hydropower in the water and energy nexus

Implications and benefits of the nexus

•  Nexus implies that decisions made in one domain affect the

other and viceversa

•  Policies that benefit one domain can pose significant risks

and detrimental effects to the other (e.g. biofuels) …

Page 16: Dammed or damned: the role of hydropower in the water and energy nexus

Implications and benefits of the nexus

•  Nexus implies that decisions made in one domain affect the

other and viceversa

•  Policies that benefit one domain can pose significant risks

and detrimental effects to the other (e.g. biofuels) …

•  … but can also generate co-benefit (e.g. energy attracts

greater political attention than water in many countries)

Page 17: Dammed or damned: the role of hydropower in the water and energy nexus

How serious is the water constraint?

VIETNAM/PHILIPPINES In 2010 an El Nino induced drought caused electricity shortages and rationing for several months

Page 18: Dammed or damned: the role of hydropower in the water and energy nexus

How serious is the water constraint?

VIETNAM/PHILIPPINES In 2010 an El Nino induced drought caused electricity shortages and rationing for several months

CHINA In 2011 drought limited generation along the Yangtze river with higher coal demand and prices and electricity rationing

Page 19: Dammed or damned: the role of hydropower in the water and energy nexus

How serious is the water constraint?

INDIA In 2012 delayed monsoon reduced hydropower and raised energy demand for irrigation causing 2 days black out for 600 milion people

VIETNAM/PHILIPPINES In 2010 an El Nino induced drought caused electricity shortages and rationing for several months

CHINA In 2011 drought limited generation along the Yangtze river with higher coal demand and prices and electricity rationing

Page 20: Dammed or damned: the role of hydropower in the water and energy nexus

How serious is the water constraint?

INDIA In 2012 delayed monsoon reduced hydropower and raised energy demand for irrigation causing 2 days black out for 600 milion people

VIETNAM/PHILIPPINES In 2010 an El Nino induced drought caused electricity shortages and rationing for several months

CALIFORNIA In 2012 and 2014 drought caused significant hydropower energy loss due to reduced snowpack and limited precipitation

CHINA In 2011 drought limited generation along the Yangtze river with higher coal demand and prices and electricity rationing

Page 21: Dammed or damned: the role of hydropower in the water and energy nexus

How serious is the water constraint?

INDIA In 2012 delayed monsoon reduced hydropower and raised energy demand for irrigation causing 2 days black out for 600 milion people

VIETNAM/PHILIPPINES In 2010 an El Nino induced drought caused electricity shortages and rationing for several months

CALIFORNIA In 2012 and 2014 drought caused significant hydropower energy loss due to reduced snowpack and limited precipitation

CHINA In 2011 drought limited generation along the Yangtze river with higher coal demand and prices and electricity rationing

US MID-WEST In 2006 heat wave forced substantial reduction of nuclear energy production to control temperature in the Missisipi river

Page 22: Dammed or damned: the role of hydropower in the water and energy nexus

To know more …

VOLUME 1

Report

Page 23: Dammed or damned: the role of hydropower in the water and energy nexus

Outline

•  What is water-energy nexus?

•  Hydropower and the nexus

•  An added challenge: global change

•  What can we do: the soft path approach

•  Case study

•  Conclusions

Page 24: Dammed or damned: the role of hydropower in the water and energy nexus

Hydropower and the nexus

Source: WWAP, 2014 and IEA, 2013

186 DATA AND INDICATORS ANNEX

Trends in world electricity generation by energy source

0

4 000

8 000

12 000

16 000

20 000

24 000

1971 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2011

Fossil thermal Nuclear Hydro Other*

TWh

Oil 24.6%

Coal and peat 38.3%

Coal and peat 41.3%

Hydro 21.0% Hydro 15.8%

Nuclear 3.3%

Nuclear 11.7%

Natural gas 12.2%

Natural gas 21.9%

Oil 4.8%

Other* 0.6% Geothermal0.3%

Biofuels, waste1.9%

Solar PV 0.3%

Wind 2.0% and other sources

(a) 1971–2011 (b) 1973: 6 115 TWh total(c) 2011: 22 126 TWh totalNote: Excludes pumped storage. * ‘Other’ includes geothermal, solar, wind, biofuels and waste, and heat. PV, solar photovoltaic.Source: IEA (http://www.iea.org/statistics/statisticssearch/report/?&country=WORLD&year=2011&product=ElectricityandHeat) and (2013, p. 24). Key World Energy Statistics 2013 © OECD/IEA.

IEA (International Energy Agency). 2013. Key World Energy Statistics 2013. Paris, OECD/IEA.

IND

ICAT

OR

13

(a)

(b) 1973 (c) 2011

Trend in electricity generation by energy source

Page 25: Dammed or damned: the role of hydropower in the water and energy nexus

Role of dams and reservoirs

in out

time, space time, space

disc

ha

rge

disc

ha

rge

Page 26: Dammed or damned: the role of hydropower in the water and energy nexus

The first dam (2700 BC)

Sadd-el-Kafara, Egypt 2700-2600 BC

Source: http://www.hydriaproject.net, last visit 31.12.14

 

Page 27: Dammed or damned: the role of hydropower in the water and energy nexus

Dam development in the XIX and XX century

Source: B. Lehner- McGill University

Page 28: Dammed or damned: the role of hydropower in the water and energy nexus

Dam development in the XIX and XX century

Page 29: Dammed or damned: the role of hydropower in the water and energy nexus

Dams by purpose

189WWDR 2014 DATA AND INDICATORS ANNEX

Source: WWAP, with data from IEA (2013).

IEA (International Energy Agency). 2013. World Indicators. World energy statistics and balances database. Paris, OECD/IEA. doi: 10.1787/data-00514-en (Accessed Dec 2013)

(a) Single purpose dams(b) Multi purpose damsSource: WWAP, with data from ICOLD (n.d.).

ICOLD (International Commission on Large Dams). n.d. General Synthesis. Paris, ICOLD. http://www.icold-cigb.net/GB/World_register/general_synthesis.asp (Accessed Dec 2013)

IND

ICAT

OR

IND

ICAT

OR

18

19

Trends in electricity consumption per capita (2000–2011)

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2011

World OECD Europe Africa Asia (excluding China)

Elec

tric

ity c

onsu

mpt

ion

(TW

h pe

r cap

ita)

0

4 000

6 000

14 000

China (PR of China and Hong Kong) India Russian Federation United States of America

2008 2009 2010

8 000

12 000

2 000

1

Use of dams by purpose

Hydropower 18.0%

Water supply 12.0%

Navigation andfish farming 0.6%

Irrigation50.0%

Other 5.0%

Recreation5.0%

Flood control10.0%

Irrigation24.0%

Navigation andfish farming 8.0%

Recreation12.0%

Other 4.0%

Flood control20.0%

Hydropower 16.0%

Water supply 17.0%

(a) (b)

Source: WWAP, 2014 and ICOLD, 2014

single purpose multi purpose

Page 30: Dammed or damned: the role of hydropower in the water and energy nexus

Dams by purpose and country

Source: Lehner, 2011

Page 31: Dammed or damned: the role of hydropower in the water and energy nexus

Capacity chart of hydropower HYPERBOLE

Annual Conference, September 30 2014 8

Capacity Chart of Hydroelectric Power Station

ρ= ×hP Q gH

Source: Avelan, 2014 DISCHARGE

HY

DRA

ULI

C H

EAD

Page 32: Dammed or damned: the role of hydropower in the water and energy nexus

Capacity chart of hydropower HYPERBOLE

Annual Conference, September 30 2014 8

Capacity Chart of Hydroelectric Power Station

ρ= ×hP Q gH

Source: Avelan, 2014 DISCHARGE

HY

DRA

ULI

C H

EAD

Page 33: Dammed or damned: the role of hydropower in the water and energy nexus

Capacity chart of hydropower HYPERBOLE

Annual Conference, September 30 2014 8

Capacity Chart of Hydroelectric Power Station

ρ= ×hP Q gH

Source: Avelan, 2014 DISCHARGE

HY

DRA

ULI

C H

EAD

Page 34: Dammed or damned: the role of hydropower in the water and energy nexus

Largest hydropower plants (the first 25)

2

1

2

1

1

4

4

11

canada

U.S. venezuela

paraguay

brazil

pakistan

russia

china

Page 35: Dammed or damned: the role of hydropower in the water and energy nexus

Hydropower impact

Is HP generating conflicts with other water uses and ecosystem services? As a non-consumptive water use HP is not removing water from the system … … but for evaporation or seepage So, should we consider HP a clean, green and fair energy production source?

Page 36: Dammed or damned: the role of hydropower in the water and energy nexus

Impacted sectors

People Resettlement

HYDROPOWER

Environment Water Quality

Sediment balance

GHG emission Competing uses •  Agriculture •  Water supply •  Energy (cooling) •  Recreation •  ….

Navigation

Page 37: Dammed or damned: the role of hydropower in the water and energy nexus

Inter-sector conflicts: the Colorado river

COLORADO RIVER, US-Mexico

Salt intrusion (violet)

Glen Canyon Dam

•  Hydropower production ( 6 large dams)

•  Agriculture (Imperial Valley)

•  Water supply

Page 38: Dammed or damned: the role of hydropower in the water and energy nexus

Inter-sector conflicts: the Colorado river

COLORADO RIVER, US-Mexico

Salt intrusion (violet)

Glen Canyon Dam

•  Hydropower production ( 6 large dams)

•  Agriculture (Imperial Valley)

•  Water supply

Page 39: Dammed or damned: the role of hydropower in the water and energy nexus

Inter-sector conflicts: the Red River basin, Vietnam

Hanoi

HoaBinh

TaBu

LaiChau

TamDuong

NamGiang

MuongTe

VuQuangYenBai

BaoLacHaGiang

BacMe

VIETNAM

CHINA

LAOS

CAMBODIA

THAILAND

Da

Thao Lo

Integrated Management of Red-Thai Binh Rivers System (IMRR) funded by the Italian Ministry of Foreign Affairs http://www.imrr.info/

Page 40: Dammed or damned: the role of hydropower in the water and energy nexus

Inter-sector conflicts: the Red River basin, Vietnam

Basin wide, anthropogenic changes over the last ~ 60 years

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Future

LAND USE CHANGE RESERVOIR CONSTRUCTION SEDIMENT MINING

Page 41: Dammed or damned: the role of hydropower in the water and energy nexus

Inter-sector conflicts: the Red River basin, Vietnam

Focus on 3 stations

Red  River:    Son  Tay  Ha  Noi    

Duong  River:    Thuong  Cat  

Page 42: Dammed or damned: the role of hydropower in the water and energy nexus

Inter-sector conflicts: the Red River basin, Vietnam

Morphologic changes aggravate water scarcity & endanger vital infrastructure

Page 43: Dammed or damned: the role of hydropower in the water and energy nexus

Inter-sector conflicts: the Red River basin, Vietnam

Irriga@on  deficits     Saltwater  

intrusion  

Before Now

Page 44: Dammed or damned: the role of hydropower in the water and energy nexus

Making things trickier: most rivers are transboundary …

Trans-national river basins collect 60% of the world freshwater.

Page 45: Dammed or damned: the role of hydropower in the water and energy nexus

… and power-asymmetric

Page 46: Dammed or damned: the role of hydropower in the water and energy nexus

Outline

•  What is water-energy nexus?

•  Hydropower and the nexus

•  An added challenge: global change

•  What can we do: the soft path approach

•  Case study

•  Conclusions

Page 47: Dammed or damned: the role of hydropower in the water and energy nexus

Earth is warming

source: IPCC, 2007

Page 48: Dammed or damned: the role of hydropower in the water and energy nexus

Climate is changing: extremes will be more frequent

source: IPCC, 2007

Page 49: Dammed or damned: the role of hydropower in the water and energy nexus

Climate is changing and so does the water cycle: natural availability is declining

Change in water natural availability, not considering production technology, access to water, etc 2050 vs [1961-90]

source: Arnell, 2004

Page 50: Dammed or damned: the role of hydropower in the water and energy nexus

Evidences from the future

source: National Geographic Rivers run dry (Colorado)

Page 51: Dammed or damned: the role of hydropower in the water and energy nexus

Forzieri et al. , HESS, 107(25), 2014.

Climate is changing and so does the water cycle: wetter in the north, drier in the south

40% reduction in minimum stream flow by the 2080s in the Iberian Peninsula, Italy and the Balkan Region

Page 52: Dammed or damned: the role of hydropower in the water and energy nexus

Society is changing as well: + people

source: UNEP, 2008

Page 53: Dammed or damned: the role of hydropower in the water and energy nexus

Society is changing as well: + people ++ energy demand

Global energy demand is expected to grow by more than one-third over the period to 2035, with China, India and the Middle Eastern countries accounting for about 60% of the increase.

Page 54: Dammed or damned: the role of hydropower in the water and energy nexus

Society is changing as well: + people ++ energy demand ++ water demand

Change in water withdrawal and consumption by 2025: more extraction less consumptive

source: UNESCO, 2001

Page 55: Dammed or damned: the role of hydropower in the water and energy nexus

Society is changing as well: + people ++ energy demand ++ water demand

Shift to alternate energy will require more water + load balancing e.g. •  1st generation biofuel consume 20 times as much water for mile traveled compare to

gasoline •  All-electric vehicles will place added strains on utilities: 1 mile three time water than with

gasoline power (King and Webber, 2008)

source: IEA, 2014

© O

ECD/

IEA,

201

2

516 World Energy Outlook 2012 | Special Topics

most in the 450 Scenario, even though the increase after 2020 is stemmed somewhat by penetration of non-irrigated advanced biofuels.

In the New Policies Scenario, water use for power generation – principally for cooling at thermal power plants – accounts for the bulk of water requirements for energy production worldwide, although the needs for biofuels also become much more significant as their production accelerates (Figure 1 . ). Withdrawals for power generation in 2010 were some 540 bcm, over 0% of the total for energy production. These slowly rising requirements level o around 2015, before falling to 560 bcm at the end of the Outlook period. There are two counteracting forces at work a reduction of generation by subcritical coal plants that use once-through cooling, particularly in the United States, China and European Union, cu ng global withdrawals by coal-fired plants by almost 10% and growth in generation from newly built nuclear power plants that use once-through cooling (for instance, some that are constructed inland in China), which expands water withdrawals for nuclear generators by a third. Consumption of water in the world’s power sector rises by almost 40%, boosted by increased use of wet tower cooling in thermal capacity. Increasing shares of gas-fired and renewable generation play a significant role in constraining additional water use in many regions, as global electricity generation grows by some 0% over 2010-2035, much more than water withdrawal or consumption by the sector.

Figure 17.7 ⊳ Global water use for energy production in the New Policies Scenario by fuel and power generation type

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2010 2020 2035

bcm

Withdrawal

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2010 2020 2035bc

m

Consump!on

BiofuelsFossil fuels

BioenergyNuclearOilGasCoal

Fuels:

Power:

Energy-related water use rises as a direct consequence of steeply increasing global biofuels supply, which triples in the New Policies Scenario on government policies that mandate the use of biofuels. Water withdrawals for biofuels increase in line with global supply, from 25 bcm to 110 bcm over 2010-2035. owever, consumption increases from 12 bcm to almost 50 bcm during that time, equalling the water consumption for power generation by the end of the Outlook period. These higher water requirements for biofuels production stem from the irrigation needs for feedstock crops for ethanol and biodiesel – primarily

499-528_Part d - Chapitre 17weo_27-28.indd 516 18/10/2012 12:12:01

16

Global water use for energy by fuel and power generation source

Page 56: Dammed or damned: the role of hydropower in the water and energy nexus

Society is changing as well: + people ++ energy demand ++ water demand

Load balancing from renewable energy production

Pumped storage is the largest-capacity form of grid energy storage available in the world (99% of bulk storage capacity worldwide, representing around 127,000 MW). Energy efficiency varies in practice between 70% and 80%. The EU has 38.3 GW net capacity (36.8% of world capacity) out of a total of 140 GW of hydropower. Japan has 25.5 GW net capacity (24.5% of world capacity).

Page 57: Dammed or damned: the role of hydropower in the water and energy nexus

Global change is shrinking the pie

global change

Page 58: Dammed or damned: the role of hydropower in the water and energy nexus

Outline

•  What is water-energy nexus?

•  Hydropower and the nexus

•  An added challenge: global change

•  What can we do: the soft path approach

•  Case study

•  Conclusions

Page 59: Dammed or damned: the role of hydropower in the water and energy nexus

React/adapt to change: re-expand the pie

global change

Page 60: Dammed or damned: the role of hydropower in the water and energy nexus

Accessible freshwater is limited

Salt Water 98%

Fresh Water 2%

Worldwide distribution: 98% salt water 2% fresh water

Surface waters (lake and rivers) are just 0.01% of the total freshwater

Groundwater 12%

Rivers & Lakes 0.01%

Ice 87%

Page 61: Dammed or damned: the role of hydropower in the water and energy nexus

What can we do? We should adapt, of course

ADAPTATION MEASURE: Adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities. Source: European Climate Adaptation Platform - EC

source: googling“adaptation program” – images

Page 62: Dammed or damned: the role of hydropower in the water and energy nexus

Supply-side adaptation: investing in centralized, large-scale physical infrastructures, and centralized water management systems

source: WRI 2003

The 20th century approach

Water supply expansion is constrained (PEAK WATER)

P.H. Gleick & M. Palanniappan, PNAS, 107(25), 2010.

decades of projectionsshows that planners consis-tently assumed continued,and even accelerated, expo-nential growth in total waterdemand (Fig. 3). Some pro-jections were that waterwithdrawals would have totriple and even quadruple incoming years, requiring ad-ditional dams and diver-sions on previously un-tapped water resources inremote or pristine areasonce declared off-limits todevelopment. Proposalshave been made to flood theGrand Canyon, dam theAmazon, and divert Siberi-an and Alaskan rivers tosouthern population centers.

Instead, as Figs. 3 and 4show, total water withdraw-als began to stabilize in the1970s and 1980s, andconstruction activities be-gan to slow as the unquan-tified but real environmental and socialcosts of dams began to be recognized. Morerecently, the economic costs of thetraditional hard path have also risen tolevels that society now seems unwillingor unable to bear. The most cited estimateof the cost of meeting futureinfrastructure needs for water is $180billion per year to 2025 for watersupply, sanitation, wastewater treat-ment, agriculture, and environmentalprotection—a daunting figure, givencurrent levels of spending on water(19). This figure is based on theassumption that future global demandfor water and water-related serviceswill reach the level of industrializednations and that centralized andexpensive water supply and treatmentinfrastructure will have to provide it.If we focus on meeting basic human needsfor water for all with appropriate-scaletechnology, the cost instead could be inthe range of $10 billion to $25 billion peryear for the next two decades—a far moreachievable level of investment (20).Similarly, as large-infrastructure solutionshave become less attractive, new ideasare being developed and tried and someold ideas are being revived, such asrainwater harvesting and integrated landand water management. These alternativeapproaches must be woven together tooffer a comprehensive toolbox ofpossible solutions.

A New Approach for WaterWhat is required is a “soft path,” one thatcontinues to rely on carefully planned andmanaged centralized infrastructure butcomplements it with small-scale decentral-ized facilities. The soft path for water

strives to improve the pro-ductivity of water use ratherthan seek endless sources ofnew supply. It delivers wa-ter services and qualitiesmatched to users’ needs,rather than just deliveringquantities of water. It ap-plies economic tools such asmarkets and pricing, butwith the goal of encouragingefficient use, equitable dis-tribution of the resource,and sustainable system op-eration over time. And it in-cludes local communities indecisions about water man-agement, allocation, and use(21–23). As Lovins noted for theenergy industry, the industrialdynamics of this approach arevery different, the technical risksare smaller, and the dollarsrisked far fewer than those of thehard path (24).

Rethinking water usemeans reevaluating the objec-

tives of using water. Hard-path planners erro-neously equate the idea of using less water, orfailing to use much more water, with a loss ofwell-being. This is a fallacy. Soft-path plannersbelieve that people want to satisfy demands forgoods and services, such as food, fiber, and

Fig. 4. Construction of large reservoirs worldwide in the 20th century. Averagenumbers of reservoirs with volume greater than 0.1 km3 built by decade,through the late 1990s, are normalized to dams per year for different periods.Note that there was a peak in construction activities in the middle of the 20thcentury, tapering off toward the end of the century. The period 1991 to 1998is not a complete decade; note also that the period 1901 to 1950 is half acentury. “Other regions” include Latin America, Africa, and Oceania (46).

Fig. 5. Economic productivity of water use in the United States, 1900 to 1996. The economicproductivity of water use in the United States, measured as $GNP (gross national product, correctedfor inflation) per cubic meter of water withdrawn, has risen sharply in recent years, from around $6to $8/m3 to around $14/m3. Although GNP is an imperfect measure of economic well-being, itprovides a consistent way to begin to evaluate the economic productivity of water use.

28 NOVEMBER 2003 VOL 302 SCIENCE www.sciencemag.org1526

source: Gleick, 2003

Page 63: Dammed or damned: the role of hydropower in the water and energy nexus

Soft is wiser: the “soft path”

Supply and demand integrated management: improving overall productivity of water by making water management more efficient rather than seeking new sources of supply

P.H. Gleick, Nature, 418, 373, 2002.

P.H. Gleick, Science, 302, 1524-1528, 2003.

by •  EXPLORE THE TRADE-OFFs

•  Distributed and coordinated management

•  Better informed decisions (pervasive monitoring)

•  Smart economics (option contracts, ensurances)

•  Participatory decision-making

•  ….

Page 64: Dammed or damned: the role of hydropower in the water and energy nexus

Outline

•  What is water-energy nexus?

•  Hydropower and the nexus

•  An added challenge: global change

•  What can we do: the soft path approach

•  Case study

•  Conclusions

Page 65: Dammed or damned: the role of hydropower in the water and energy nexus

An example: Lake Como

Reservoirs

Lake Como 247 Mm3

Alpine hydropowers 545 Mm3

Catchment area

Lake Como 4500 km2

Stakeholders

Hydropower producers: 25% national hydropower production

Farmers: 5 districts for a total area of 1400 km2

Hydropower reservoir

Power plant

Como city

Penstock

River Adda

River Adda

LegendLario

Lario catchment

River

Irrigated area

0 10 20 30 40 505Kilometers

Page 66: Dammed or damned: the role of hydropower in the water and energy nexus

DISTRILAKE enhancing water resources management efficiency and sustainability via integration and coordination

Hydropower reservoir

Power plant

Como city

Penstock

River Adda

River Adda

LegendLario

Lario catchment

River

Irrigated area

0 10 20 30 40 505Kilometers

Virtual and physical storages

SNOW  PACK  

HYDROPOWER  RESERVOIRS  

LAKE  COMO  

GROUNDWATER  

GREEN  WATER  

Page 67: Dammed or damned: the role of hydropower in the water and energy nexus

DISTRILAKE alpine hydro – lake como

Hydropower reservoir

Power plant

Como city

Penstock

River Adda

River Adda

LegendLario

Lario catchment

River

Irrigated area

0 10 20 30 40 505Kilometers

Virtual and physical storages

SNOW  PACK  

HYDROPOWER  RESERVOIRS  

LAKE  COMO  

GROUNDWATER  

GREEN  WATER  

Anghileri, D. et al. Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, 139(5), 492–500, 2013

Page 68: Dammed or damned: the role of hydropower in the water and energy nexus

Hydropower reservoir

Power plant

Como city

Penstock

River Adda

River Adda

LegendLario

Lario catchment

River

Irrigated area

0 10 20 30 40 505Kilometers

Virtual and physical storages

SNOW  PACK  

HYDROPOWER  RESERVOIRS  

LAKE  COMO  

GROUNDWATER  

GREEN  WATER  

Anghileri, D. et al. Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, 139(5), 492–500, 2013

R2  

R1  

DISTRILAKE alpine hydro – lake como

Page 69: Dammed or damned: the role of hydropower in the water and energy nexus

Hydropower reservoir

Power plant

Como city

Penstock

River Adda

River Adda

LegendLario

Lario catchment

River

Irrigated area

0 10 20 30 40 505Kilometers

R2  

R1  

J F M A M J J A S O N D0

10

20

30

40

Flow

[m3 /s]

Inflow Release

J F M A M J J A S O N D50

100

150

200

250

Flow

[m3 /s]

Time [days]

(a)

(b)

FIG. 2. Historical inflow (dashed) and release (solid) of the hydropower reservoir R1(a) and lake Como (b) (14-days moving median over the period 1996-2005).

22

R1

J F M A M J J A S O N D50

100

150

200

250

Dem

and

[m3 /

s]

(a)

J F M A M J J A S O N D0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

Pric

e [e

uro/

MW

]

(b)

J F M A M J J A S O N D−20’000

−10’000

0

10’000

20’000

30’000

Reve

nue [euro

/day]

(c)

Time [days]

FIG. 5. (a): Yearly pattern of water demand. (b): Yearly pattern of the energy price(each colour band represents the energy price in the j-th most profitable hour). (c):Di↵erence in daily hydropower revenue (14-days moving average over years 1996-2005)between centralized policy C6 and uncoordinated UC.

25

energy price

J F M A M J J A S O N D50

100

150

200

250

Dem

and

[m3 /

s]

(a)

J F M A M J J A S O N D0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

Pric

e [e

uro/

MW

]

(b)

J F M A M J J A S O N D−20’000

−10’000

0

10’000

20’000

30’000

Reve

nue [euro

/day]

(c)

Time [days]

FIG. 5. (a): Yearly pattern of water demand. (b): Yearly pattern of the energy price(each colour band represents the energy price in the j-th most profitable hour). (c):Di↵erence in daily hydropower revenue (14-days moving average over years 1996-2005)between centralized policy C6 and uncoordinated UC.

25

water demand

J F M A M J J A S O N D0

10

20

30

40

Flow

[m3 /s]

Inflow Release

J F M A M J J A S O N D50

100

150

200

250

Flow

[m3 /s]

Time [days]

(a)

(b)

FIG. 2. Historical inflow (dashed) and release (solid) of the hydropower reservoir R1(a) and lake Como (b) (14-days moving median over the period 1996-2005).

22

Lake Como

DISTRILAKE alpine hydro – lake como

Anghileri, D. et al. Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, 139(5), 492–500, 2013

Page 70: Dammed or damned: the role of hydropower in the water and energy nexus

LakeComo

LakeComo

r

s 1

s 2

s 3

u 1

u 2

u 3

R2

R1

R2

R1

hydropower plant

irrigated area

H2

H1

H3

H2

H1

H3

q 3

q 2

q 1

q 3

q 2

q 1

s 1

s 2

s 3

u 2

u 3

u 1 m 1

m 2

m 3

(•)

m (•) (•)

(•)

UNCOORDINATED CENTRALIZED

(a) (b)

r

FIG. 3. The model scheme under uncoordinated (left) and centralized (right) man-agement.

23

800 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600

460’000

470’000

480’000

490’000

Irrigation deficit [m3/s]2

Hyd

ropo

wer

reve

nue

[eur

o/da

y]

H

ab

C6C5

C4

C3

C2

C1

CO2 CO1 UCUC

UN-COORDINATED

Page 71: Dammed or damned: the role of hydropower in the water and energy nexus

LakeComo

LakeComo

r

s 1

s 2

s 3

u 1

u 2

u 3

R2

R1

R2

R1

hydropower plant

irrigated area

H2

H1

H3

H2

H1

H3

q 3

q 2

q 1

q 3

q 2

q 1

s 1

s 2

s 3

u 2

u 3

u 1 m 1

m 2

m 3

(•)

m (•) (•)

(•)

UNCOORDINATED CENTRALIZED

(a) (b)

r

FIG. 3. The model scheme under uncoordinated (left) and centralized (right) man-agement.

23

800 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600

460’000

470’000

480’000

490’000

Irrigation deficit [m3/s]2

Hyd

ropo

wer

reve

nue

[eur

o/da

y]

H

ab

C6C5

C4

C3

C2

C1

CO2 CO1 UCUC

UN-COORDINATED

LakeComo

LakeComo

r

s 1

s 2

s 3

u 1

u 2

u 3

R2

R1

R2

R1

hydropower plant

irrigated area

H2

H1

H3

H2

H1

H3

q 3

q 2

q 1

q 3

q 2

q 1

s 1

s 2

s 3

u 2

u 3

u 1 m 1

m 2

m 3

(•)

m (•) (•)

(•)

UNCOORDINATED CENTRALIZED

(a) (b)

r

FIG. 3. The model scheme under uncoordinated (left) and centralized (right) man-agement.

23

CENTRALIZED (SOCIAL PLANNER)

Page 72: Dammed or damned: the role of hydropower in the water and energy nexus

LakeComo

LakeComo

r

s 1

s 2

s 3

u 1

u 2

u 3

R2

R1

R2

R1

hydropower plant

irrigated area

H2

H1

H3

H2

H1

H3

q 3

q 2

q 1

q 3

q 2

q 1

s 1

s 2

s 3

u 2

u 3

u 1 m 1

m 2

m 3

(•)

m (•) (•)

(•)

UNCOORDINATED CENTRALIZED

(a) (b)

r

FIG. 3. The model scheme under uncoordinated (left) and centralized (right) man-agement.

23

800 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600

460’000

470’000

480’000

490’000

Irrigation deficit [m3/s]2

Hyd

ropo

wer

reve

nue

[eur

o/da

y]

H

ab

C6C5

C4

C3

C2

C1

CO2 CO1 UCC6 C5

C4

C3

C2

C1

UC

UN-COORDINATED

LakeComo

LakeComo

r

s 1

s 2

s 3

u 1

u 2

u 3

R2

R1

R2

R1

hydropower plant

irrigated area

H2

H1

H3

H2

H1

H3

q 3

q 2

q 1

q 3

q 2

q 1

s 1

s 2

s 3

u 2

u 3

u 1 m 1

m 2

m 3

(•)

m (•) (•)

(•)

UNCOORDINATED CENTRALIZED

(a) (b)

r

FIG. 3. The model scheme under uncoordinated (left) and centralized (right) man-agement.

23

CENTRALIZED (SOCIAL PLANNER)

Page 73: Dammed or damned: the role of hydropower in the water and energy nexus

LakeComo

LakeComo

r

s 1

s 2

s 3

u 1

u 2

u 3

R2

R1

R2

R1

hydropower plant

irrigated area

H2

H1

H3

H2

H1

H3

q 3

q 2

q 1

q 3

q 2

q 1

s 1

s 2

s 3

u 2

u 3

u 1 m 1

m 2

m 3

(•)

m (•) (•)

(•)

UNCOORDINATED CENTRALIZED

(a) (b)

r

FIG. 3. The model scheme under uncoordinated (left) and centralized (right) man-agement.

23

800 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600

460’000

470’000

480’000

490’000

Irrigation deficit [m3/s]2

Hyd

ropo

wer

reve

nue

[eur

o/da

y]

H

ab

C6C5

C4

C3

C2

C1

CO2 CO1 UCC6 C5

C4

C3

C2

C1

UC

UN-COORDINATED

LakeComo

LakeComo

r

s 1

s 2

s 3

u 1

u 2

u 3

R2

R1

R2

R1

hydropower plant

irrigated area

H2

H1

H3

H2

H1

H3

q 3

q 2

q 1

q 3

q 2

q 1

s 1

s 2

s 3

u 2

u 3

u 1 m 1

m 2

m 3

(•)

m (•) (•)

(•)

UNCOORDINATED CENTRALIZED

(a) (b)

r

FIG. 3. The model scheme under uncoordinated (left) and centralized (right) man-agement.

23

CENTRALIZED (SOCIAL PLANNER)

?

Page 74: Dammed or damned: the role of hydropower in the water and energy nexus

LakeComo

R2

R1

hydropower plant

irrigated area

H2

H1

H3

q 3

q 2

q 1

s 1

s 2

s 3

u 2

u 3

u 1 m 1

m 2

m 3

(•)

(•)

(•)

COORDINATED

r

coordinationmechanism

FIG. 4. The model scheme under coordinated management.

24

800 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600

460’000

470’000

480’000

490’000

Irrigation deficit [m3/s]2

Hyd

ropo

wer

reve

nue

[eur

o/da

y]

H

ab

C6C5

C4

C3

C2

C1

CO2 CO1 UCC6 C5

C4

C3

C2

C1

UC

COORDINATED

LakeComo

LakeComo

r

s 1

s 2

s 3

u 1

u 2

u 3

R2

R1

R2

R1

hydropower plant

irrigated area

H2

H1

H3

H2

H1

H3

q 3

q 2

q 1

q 3

q 2

q 1

s 1

s 2

s 3

u 2

u 3

u 1 m 1

m 2

m 3

(•)

m (•) (•)

(•)

UNCOORDINATED CENTRALIZED

(a) (b)

r

FIG. 3. The model scheme under uncoordinated (left) and centralized (right) man-agement.

23

CENTRALIZED (SOCIAL PLANNER)

?

Page 75: Dammed or damned: the role of hydropower in the water and energy nexus

LakeComo

R2

R1

hydropower plant

irrigated area

H2

H1

H3

q 3

q 2

q 1

s 1

s 2

s 3

u 2

u 3

u 1 m 1

m 2

m 3

(•)

(•)

(•)

COORDINATED

r

coordinationmechanism

FIG. 4. The model scheme under coordinated management.

24

800 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600

460’000

470’000

480’000

490’000

Irrigation deficit [m3/s]2

Hyd

ropo

wer

reve

nue

[eur

o/da

y]

H

ab

C6C5

C4

C3

C2

C1

CO2 CO1 UCC6 C5

C4

C3

C2

C1

UC

COORDINATED

LakeComo

LakeComo

r

s 1

s 2

s 3

u 1

u 2

u 3

R2

R1

R2

R1

hydropower plant

irrigated area

H2

H1

H3

H2

H1

H3

q 3

q 2

q 1

q 3

q 2

q 1

s 1

s 2

s 3

u 2

u 3

u 1 m 1

m 2

m 3

(•)

m (•) (•)

(•)

UNCOORDINATED CENTRALIZED

(a) (b)

r

FIG. 3. The model scheme under uncoordinated (left) and centralized (right) man-agement.

23

CENTRALIZED (SOCIAL PLANNER)

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5x 108

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Lake reservoir [m3]

Rel

ease

dec

isio

n (R

1) [m

3 /s]

C6UCConstraint

FIG. 7. Hydropower release decision of reservoir R1 as a function of lake storageunder centralized policy C6 (red circles) and uncoordinated policy UC (blue points).The minimum release constraint on R1 is represented by the black line.

27

?

Page 76: Dammed or damned: the role of hydropower in the water and energy nexus

DISTRILAKE enhancing water resources management efficiency and sustainability via integration and coordination

Hydropower reservoir

Power plant

Como city

Penstock

River Adda

River Adda

LegendLario

Lario catchment

River

Irrigated area

0 10 20 30 40 505Kilometers

Virtual and physical storages

SNOW  PACK  

HYDROPOWER  RESERVOIRS  

LAKE  COMO  

GROUNDWATER  

GREEN  WATER  

Page 77: Dammed or damned: the role of hydropower in the water and energy nexus

DISTRILAKE lake como - greenwater

Hydropower reservoir

Power plant

Como city

Penstock

River Adda

River Adda

LegendLario

Lario catchment

River

Irrigated area

0 10 20 30 40 505Kilometers

Virtual and physical storages

SNOW  PACK  

HYDROPOWER  RESERVOIRS  

LAKE  COMO  

GROUNDWATER  

GREEN  WATER  

Galelli. et al. Environmental Modelling and Software, 25, 209–222, 2010

Page 78: Dammed or damned: the role of hydropower in the water and energy nexus

Hydropower reservoir

Power plant

Como city

Penstock

River Adda

River Adda

LegendLario

Lario catchment

River

Irrigated area

0 10 20 30 40 505Kilometers

J F M A M J J A S O N D50

100

150

200

250

Dem

and

[m3 /

s]

(a)

J F M A M J J A S O N D0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

Pric

e [e

uro/

MW

]

(b)

J F M A M J J A S O N D−20’000

−10’000

0

10’000

20’000

30’000

Reve

nue [euro

/day]

(c)

Time [days]

FIG. 5. (a): Yearly pattern of water demand. (b): Yearly pattern of the energy price(each colour band represents the energy price in the j-th most profitable hour). (c):Di↵erence in daily hydropower revenue (14-days moving average over years 1996-2005)between centralized policy C6 and uncoordinated UC.

25

water demand

J F M A M J J A S O N D0

10

20

30

40

Flow

[m3 /s]

Inflow Release

J F M A M J J A S O N D50

100

150

200

250

Flow

[m3 /s]

Time [days]

(a)

(b)

FIG. 2. Historical inflow (dashed) and release (solid) of the hydropower reservoir R1(a) and lake Como (b) (14-days moving median over the period 1996-2005).

22

Lake Como

water demand = Σ water use concessions

[ - Irrigation - Industrial water supply - Run-off river hydro ]

Is that the actual water demand?

DISTRILAKE lake como - greenwater

Galelli. et al. Environmental Modelling and Software, 25, 209–222, 2010

Page 79: Dammed or damned: the role of hydropower in the water and energy nexus

DISTRILAKE lake como - greenwater

green water resource

blue water resource

blue water resource

blue water flow

satu

rate

d

zon

e

un

satu

rate

d

zon

e

green water flow

rain

•  BLUE WATER: surface and ground water

•  GREEN WATER: water in the unsaturated root zone

Falkenmark, M. and Rockström, Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, 132(3), 129–132, 2006

Galelli. et al. Environmental Modelling and Software, 25, 209–222, 2010

Page 80: Dammed or damned: the role of hydropower in the water and energy nexus

Author's personal copy

worst case actually occur and, when it does not, a water loss isproduced (see Fig. 10(b)). Hence the availability of a canal infra-structure manageable on-demand is only a physical pre-conditionfor exploiting the opportunities offered by a policy which accountsfor the water demand.

A final comment. As stated in Section 3.1, nowadays there is noconflict on water uses between hydropower companies andfarmers, because, in the irrigation season, the a priori given irri-gation demand is larger than the hydropower demand (seeFig. 11(a)). Thus, when the first is satisfied, the second is satisfied as

well. However, it is important to note that the true irrigation waterdemand (as estimated by the distributed-parameter model) isoccasionally lower than the hydropower demand (see Fig. 11(b)). Asa consequence, if the system was regulated on-demand, a conflictwould emerge between the two users and the definition of thewater demand at the lake outlet (see eq. (17)) would not beaccepted any longer. To overcome the problem, the reduced policymay be recalculated by solving a three-objective problem, whichexplicitly considers two separate objectives for the two down-stream users.

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 14000

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

Ji (m3/s)2

Jf (m2 /g

/a)

Naive OCP FrontierReduced OCP FrontierNaive OCP Utopia pointReduced OCP Utopia pointhistorical management

C

B

B’

C’

AU’U

UU’

h

h

Fig. 7. Image of the Pareto-Frontiers of the Naive (dashed line) and Reduced (solid line) OCP obtained by simulating the Lake Como system over the period 1993–2004. Point h is thehistorical performance, while points U’ and U are the Utopia points of the Naive and Reduced OCP respectively. The meaning of the labelled points is explained in the text.

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 3500

100

200

Mm

3

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 3500

200

400

m3 /s

m3 /s

m3 /s

m3 /s

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 3500

100

200

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 3500

100

200

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 3500

100

200

days

naive policystoragereduced policystorage

naive policyreleasereduced policyrelease

a priori givendemandmeta−modelestimated demand

water demanddiverted flowa priori givendemand

water demanddiverted flowmeta−modelestimated demand

a

b

c

d

e

Fig. 8. Comparison of the storages (panel (a)) and the reservoir releases (panel (b)) induced by the naive and reduced policy (dashed and solid lines respectively). A priori given(dashed line) and water demand forecasted (solid line) (panel (c)). Trajectories of diverted flows (cross-solid lines) and the water demands (grey lines) produced, in 2003, by thenaive (d) and reduced (e) policies, associated to l¼ 0.40.

S. Galelli, R. Soncini-Sessa / Environmental Modelling & Software 25 (2010) 209–222 219

Hydropower reservoir

Power plant

Como city

Penstock

River Adda

River Adda

LegendLario

Lario catchment

River

Irrigated area

0 10 20 30 40 505Kilometers

J F M A M J J A S O N D50

100

150

200

250

Dem

and

[m3 /

s]

(a)

J F M A M J J A S O N D0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

Pric

e [e

uro/

MW

]

(b)

J F M A M J J A S O N D−20’000

−10’000

0

10’000

20’000

30’000

Reve

nue [euro

/day]

(c)

Time [days]

FIG. 5. (a): Yearly pattern of water demand. (b): Yearly pattern of the energy price(each colour band represents the energy price in the j-th most profitable hour). (c):Di↵erence in daily hydropower revenue (14-days moving average over years 1996-2005)between centralized policy C6 and uncoordinated UC.

25

water demand

J F M A M J J A S O N D0

10

20

30

40

Flow

[m3 /s]

Inflow Release

J F M A M J J A S O N D50

100

150

200

250

Flow

[m3 /s]

Time [days]

(a)

(b)

FIG. 2. Historical inflow (dashed) and release (solid) of the hydropower reservoir R1(a) and lake Como (b) (14-days moving median over the period 1996-2005).

22

Lake Como

Blue water

Blue & Green water

irrigation deficit

floo

de

d a

rea

DISTRILAKE lake como - greenwater

Galelli. et al. Environmental Modelling and Software, 25, 209–222, 2010

Page 81: Dammed or damned: the role of hydropower in the water and energy nexus

Author's personal copy

worst case actually occur and, when it does not, a water loss isproduced (see Fig. 10(b)). Hence the availability of a canal infra-structure manageable on-demand is only a physical pre-conditionfor exploiting the opportunities offered by a policy which accountsfor the water demand.

A final comment. As stated in Section 3.1, nowadays there is noconflict on water uses between hydropower companies andfarmers, because, in the irrigation season, the a priori given irri-gation demand is larger than the hydropower demand (seeFig. 11(a)). Thus, when the first is satisfied, the second is satisfied as

well. However, it is important to note that the true irrigation waterdemand (as estimated by the distributed-parameter model) isoccasionally lower than the hydropower demand (see Fig. 11(b)). Asa consequence, if the system was regulated on-demand, a conflictwould emerge between the two users and the definition of thewater demand at the lake outlet (see eq. (17)) would not beaccepted any longer. To overcome the problem, the reduced policymay be recalculated by solving a three-objective problem, whichexplicitly considers two separate objectives for the two down-stream users.

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 14000

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

Ji (m3/s)2

Jf (m2 /g

/a)

Naive OCP FrontierReduced OCP FrontierNaive OCP Utopia pointReduced OCP Utopia pointhistorical management

C

B

B’

C’

AU’U

UU’

h

h

Fig. 7. Image of the Pareto-Frontiers of the Naive (dashed line) and Reduced (solid line) OCP obtained by simulating the Lake Como system over the period 1993–2004. Point h is thehistorical performance, while points U’ and U are the Utopia points of the Naive and Reduced OCP respectively. The meaning of the labelled points is explained in the text.

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 3500

100

200

Mm

3

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 3500

200

400

m3 /s

m3 /s

m3 /s

m3 /s

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 3500

100

200

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 3500

100

200

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 3500

100

200

days

naive policystoragereduced policystorage

naive policyreleasereduced policyrelease

a priori givendemandmeta−modelestimated demand

water demanddiverted flowa priori givendemand

water demanddiverted flowmeta−modelestimated demand

a

b

c

d

e

Fig. 8. Comparison of the storages (panel (a)) and the reservoir releases (panel (b)) induced by the naive and reduced policy (dashed and solid lines respectively). A priori given(dashed line) and water demand forecasted (solid line) (panel (c)). Trajectories of diverted flows (cross-solid lines) and the water demands (grey lines) produced, in 2003, by thenaive (d) and reduced (e) policies, associated to l¼ 0.40.

S. Galelli, R. Soncini-Sessa / Environmental Modelling & Software 25 (2010) 209–222 219

Hydropower reservoir

Power plant

Como city

Penstock

River Adda

River Adda

LegendLario

Lario catchment

River

Irrigated area

0 10 20 30 40 505Kilometers

J F M A M J J A S O N D50

100

150

200

250

Dem

and

[m3 /

s]

(a)

J F M A M J J A S O N D0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

Pric

e [e

uro/

MW

]

(b)

J F M A M J J A S O N D−20’000

−10’000

0

10’000

20’000

30’000

Reve

nue [euro

/day]

(c)

Time [days]

FIG. 5. (a): Yearly pattern of water demand. (b): Yearly pattern of the energy price(each colour band represents the energy price in the j-th most profitable hour). (c):Di↵erence in daily hydropower revenue (14-days moving average over years 1996-2005)between centralized policy C6 and uncoordinated UC.

25

water demand

J F M A M J J A S O N D0

10

20

30

40

Flow

[m3 /s]

Inflow Release

J F M A M J J A S O N D50

100

150

200

250

Flow

[m3 /s]

Time [days]

(a)

(b)

FIG. 2. Historical inflow (dashed) and release (solid) of the hydropower reservoir R1(a) and lake Como (b) (14-days moving median over the period 1996-2005).

22

Lake Como

Blue water

Blue & Green water

irrigation deficit

floo

de

d a

rea

DISTRILAKE lake como - greenwater

saving 75 Mm3 per year = ¼ of lake Como

Galelli. et al. Environmental Modelling and Software, 25, 209–222, 2010

Page 82: Dammed or damned: the role of hydropower in the water and energy nexus

DISTRILAKE lake como - greenwater

Galelli. et al. Environmental Modelling and Software, 25, 209–222, 2010

Blue water

Page 83: Dammed or damned: the role of hydropower in the water and energy nexus

DISTRILAKE lake como - greenwater

Galelli. et al. Environmental Modelling and Software, 25, 209–222, 2010

Blue water

Page 84: Dammed or damned: the role of hydropower in the water and energy nexus

DISTRILAKE lake como - greenwater

Galelli. et al. Environmental Modelling and Software, 25, 209–222, 2010

Blue water

Page 85: Dammed or damned: the role of hydropower in the water and energy nexus

DISTRILAKE lake como - greenwater

Galelli. et al. Environmental Modelling and Software, 25, 209–222, 2010

Blue water

Blue & green water

Page 86: Dammed or damned: the role of hydropower in the water and energy nexus

DISTRILAKE lake como - greenwater

Galelli. et al. Environmental Modelling and Software, 25, 209–222, 2010

Blue water

Blue & green water

Page 87: Dammed or damned: the role of hydropower in the water and energy nexus

Hydropower reservoir

Power plant

Como city

Penstock

River Adda

River Adda

LegendLario

Lario catchment

River

Irrigated area

0 10 20 30 40 505Kilometers

DISTRILAKE lake como - greenwater

Galelli. et al. Environmental Modelling and Software, 25, 209–222, 2010

Network upgrade to supply on demand

FlumeGateTM by RUBICON WATER

Page 88: Dammed or damned: the role of hydropower in the water and energy nexus

Hydropower reservoir

Power plant

Como city

Penstock

River Adda

River Adda

LegendLario

Lario catchment

River

Irrigated area

0 10 20 30 40 505Kilometers

Downscaling

Catchment model

Water system model

Performance indicators

Management model

Regional climate scenario

Local climate scenario

Reservoir inflow scenario

Operation policy

Impacts on water resources

Anghileri, D. et al. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15(6), 2025–2038, 2011

Uncertain futures and decision making

Page 89: Dammed or damned: the role of hydropower in the water and energy nexus

Scenario-based approach

possible future technological development and socio-economic development of the antropic forcings (IPCC 2007)

Page 90: Dammed or damned: the role of hydropower in the water and energy nexus

Scenario-based approach

from Le Treut et al., 2007 from www.wmo.int

Page 91: Dammed or damned: the role of hydropower in the water and energy nexus

Scenario-based approach

from www.wmo.int

from100 km to 25 km and higher resolution

Page 92: Dammed or damned: the role of hydropower in the water and energy nexus

Scenario-based approach

HBV model [Bergstrom, 1976]

from the atmosphere to local hydrological cycle

Page 93: Dammed or damned: the role of hydropower in the water and energy nexus

Scenario-based approach

Page 94: Dammed or damned: the role of hydropower in the water and energy nexus

Scenario-based approach

Wilby & Dessai, Weather, 65(7), 180-185, 2010

Page 95: Dammed or damned: the role of hydropower in the water and energy nexus

500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000−5

−4.5

−4

−3.5

−3

−2.5

−2 x 105

Irrigation deficit (m3/s)2

−Hyd

ropo

wer r

even

ue (e

uro)

* Future optimal management policies

The impact of CC on Lake Como

Page 96: Dammed or damned: the role of hydropower in the water and energy nexus

Adaptation is better than myopic

500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000−5

−4.5

−4

−3.5

−3

−2.5

−2 x 105

Irrigation deficit (m3/s)2

−Hyd

ropo

wer r

even

ue (e

uro)

* Future optimal management policies

Page 97: Dammed or damned: the role of hydropower in the water and energy nexus

Future is non stationary

500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000−5

−4.5

−4

−3.5

−3

−2.5

−2 x 105

Irrigation deficit (m3/s)2

−Hyd

ropo

wer

rev

enue

(eu

ro)

2071-­‐2080    

2081-­‐2090    

2091-­‐2100    

Page 98: Dammed or damned: the role of hydropower in the water and energy nexus

Future is deeply uncertain

500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000−5

−4.5

−4

−3.5

−3

−2.5

−2 x 105

Irrigation deficit (m3/s)2

−Hyd

ropo

wer

reve

nue

(eur

o)

HadRM3HREMOHIRHAMRCAOCHRMPROMESCLM

Uncertainty from different RCM projections

Page 99: Dammed or damned: the role of hydropower in the water and energy nexus

Conclusions

•  Present day water and energy systems are tightly intertwined

•  Hydropower has a role in the nexus

•  Global change is challenging future hydropower operation

•  Soft adaptation measures should be first considered to better exploit the potential of existing infrastructures

•  Designing and implementing those measures require a trully mulidisciplinary approach

•  Sationarity is dead and the future uncertain: implications for planning

Page 100: Dammed or damned: the role of hydropower in the water and energy nexus

That’s all