damage overview overall damages assessment environment productive social infrastructure total damage
TRANSCRIPT
Damage OverviewDamage Overview
Overall damages assessmentOverall damages assessment
EnvironmentEnvironment
ProductiveProductive
SocialSocial
InfrastructureInfrastructure
Total DamageTotal Damage
ContentsContents
• Avoid double accounting
• Addition of damages and losses
• Determing magnitude of disaster
• Focalization on most affected sectors, geographical areas, vulnerable groups
Possible duplicationsPossible duplications Agriculture, Livestock and Fishery losses to be
measured at prices paid to farmers; not at wholesale or retail prices
Water supply and sanitation damage and losses to be estimated separately from Human Settlements sector
Farm roads to be included in Agriculture and Livestock sector; not in transport
Tourism sector should not include damage to roads or other transport infrastructure and assets
Damage to lands and soils to be included in Agriculture sector and also in Environment, but should not be added to ascertain total damages
Solution: Coordination of results among assesment specialists and care during total damage assessment
Total disaster damageTotal disaster damageAddition of sectoral direct and indirect
effectsMinus any possible duplications
between sectoral estimatesOnly damages and losses that can be
measured in terms of national accounts should be included
Total estimated damage, million US$
Sector and subsector Direct
Damages
Indirect
Losses
Total
DamagesSocial SectorsEducation and CultureHealthHousing and Human Settlm´ts
496190
56250
120201684
617211
72334
InfraestructureElectricityWater and SanitationTransport
973
1975
37513
4358
4721623
433
Productive SectorsAgriculture and LivestockIndustry and Commerce
24439
205
965541
33993
246
Environment 102 1 103
Other losses -- 73 73
Total 939 665 1,604
Gross and net amount of damagesGross and net amount of damages
Any expected insurance refunds must be deducted from total damages in order to arrive at a net amount of damages
Any expected reinsurance payments from abroad must be taken into consideration for the analysis of external sector
The costs of reconstructionThe costs of reconstruction
Replacement of lost or damaged assets must be made at present construction or purchase price of goods
In addition, the cost of preventive and mitigation works and measures must be included to reduce future damages
The cost of reconstruction does not include production losses, nor the increased expenses and/or decreased revenues in the provision of services
It should include the cost for economic reactivation when necessary
The magnitude of the disasterThe magnitude of the disaster
• Total amount of damages versus GDP• Production losses versus GDP or
national exports• Lost assets versus annual rate of
gross capital formation• Lost assets versus construction
sector GDP• Lost assets versus national debt• Per capita damages
Comparison of recent disastersComparison of recent disasters
0
10000
20000
30000
Mill
ion
US
$
1985 Mexico Earthquake El Niño Andean region
Hurricane Andrew USA Venezuela floods 1999
Mitch in Central Americ
6197 7545
29500
3237 6018
Comparison of magnitudesComparison of magnitudes
0
5
10
15
Daño total versus PIB
Mexico earthquake 1985 El Niño Andean region
Hurricane Andrew U Venezuela Floods 1999
Mitch in Central America
1.43.6 0.4 3.3
13.213.2
Total Damage vs GDP, %
Comparison of selected disastersComparison of selected disasters
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Dañ
o to
tal v
ersu
s P
IB, %
Venezuela Georges Keith Mitch Honduras
Usulután Cuscatlán La Paz San Vicente
Tot
al d
amag
e/G
DP
, %
Breakdown of total damagesBreakdown of total damages
•Direct damages•Indirect losses
•Damage to assets•Damage to production•Increased costs anddecreased revenues
•Public sector•Private sector
El Salvador: breakdown of damages and losses
64%5%
31%
ASSETS PRODUCTION INCREASED SPENDING
Spatial distribution of damageSpatial distribution of damage
Use of special software to determine the spatial or geographical distribution of damages
Enables the definition of most affected geographical areas or regions that deserve priority in reconstruction
Daños per capita totalmenos de 100100 a 500500 a 10001000 y más
SANTA ANA
AHUACHAPAN
SONSONATE
LA LIBERTAD
SAN SALVADOR
CHALATENANGO
CABAÑAS
SAN VICENTE
LA PAZ
USULUTAN
SAN MIGUEL
MORAZAN
LA UNION
CUSCATLAN
30 0 30 60 Kilometers
N
EW
S
Fuente: CEPAL
(Daño per capita, US$ por habitante)
Distribución geográfica del daño ocasionado por los terremotos de enero y febrero de 2001
1,533
SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF DAMAGESEL SALVADOR EARTHQUAKES, 2001
Damage per capita, US$/inhabitant
% del PIB menos de 55 a 1818 a 3535 y más
SANTA ANA
AHUACHAPAN
SONSONATELA LIBERTAD
SAN SALVADOR
CHALATENANGO
CABAÑAS
SAN VICENTE
LA PAZ
USULUTAN
SAN MIGUEL
MORAZAN
LA UNION
CUSCATLAN
30 0 30 60 Kilometers
N
EW
S
Fuente: CEPAL
Distribución geográfica del daño ocasionado por los terremotos de enero y febrero de 2001
(Daño total/PIB, %)
57%57%
31%31%
22%22%
19%19%
Spatial distribution of per capita damage to GDP
Human development index in 1999Human development index in 1999
SANTA ANA
AHUACHAPAN
SONSONATE
LA LIBERTAD
SAN SALVADOR
CHALATENANGO
CABANAS
SAN VICENTE
LA PAZUSULUTAN
SAN MIGUEL
MORAZAN
LA UNION
CUSCATLAN
0.686
0.625
0.668
0.640
0.764
0.7260.667
0.608
0.646
0.6540.687
0.617
0.627
0.696
20 0 20 40 60 Kilometers
N
EW
S
Fuente: PNUD, Cifras preliminares del informesobre desarrollo humano de El Salvador , año 2000.
DISTRIBUCION ESPACIAL DEL INDICE DE DESARROLLO HUMANO (IDH)
EFECTOS DEL TERREMOTO DEL 13 DE ENERO DE 2001 EN EL SALVADOR
IDH para El Salvador 0.702
Indice Desarrollo Humano
0.608 - 0.6270.627 - 0.6540.654 - 0.6960.696 - 0.764
Human development after the disaster
Most affected single sectorsMost affected single sectors
39%
29%
21%6% 5%
SOCIAL
INFRASTRUCTURE
PRODUCTIVE
ENVIRONMENT
OTHERS
Identification of the effects on Identification of the effects on vulnerable sectors/groupsvulnerable sectors/groups
The analysis provides means to identify the most affected sectors, and population groups
Use may be made of per capita damage estimates in comparison to per capita income maps
Most affected population groupsMost affected population groups
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