daily technical trader - ksa april 04, 2016

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COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 1 of 5 Daily Technical Trader – KSA Monday, 04 April 2016 Stock Covered Today Ticker Price (SAR) 1 st Target BJAZ 13.14 13.64 TASI All Share Index Level % Ch. Vol. (mn) Last 6,126.12 -1.56 183.4 Resistance/Support Levels 1 st 2 nd 3 rd Resistance 6,170 6,260 6,450 Support 6,100 6,000 5,750 TASI All Share Index Commentary Overview: The Index corrected further as we expected and could continue with this correction in the short term. Remaining above the 6,000 is vital; the Index remains in a short-term uptrend if it remains above that level. Expected Resistance Level: 6,170 Expected Support Level: 6,100 TASI (Daily) Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research TASI Summary Market Indicators 03 Apr 31 Mar %Ch. Value (SAR bn) 4.0 4.5 -10.7 Mkt. Cap. (SAR bn) 1,413.5 1,437.3 -1.7 Volume (mn) 212.5 217.4 -2.3 Transactions 111,748 116,341 -3.9 Companies Traded 168 168 0.0 Market Breadth 12:156 60:104 Saudi Equity Indices Market Indices Close 1D% RSI Banking 13,856.89 -1.46 39.16 Petrochem 3,922.89 -2.15 44.60 Cement 4,307.09 -1.05 42.00 Retail 9,433.70 -2.07 35.80 Energy and Utilities 5,616.39 -1.55 43.82 Agriculture and Food 7,591.55 -1.02 44.76 Telecom 1,531.67 -3.28 45.02 Insurance 1,103.09 -3.89 47.23 Multi-Investment 2,713.54 -1.73 44.53 Industrial Invest. 5,468.41 0.62 41.52 Building and Const. 1,874.50 -2.57 41.44 RE Development 5,772.92 -0.40 53.50 Transportation 6,825.93 0.77 58.74 Media & Publishing 2,591.12 -6.00 36.45 Hotel and Tourism 9,105.70 -2.44 34.93 RSI 14 (Over Bought) From Page 3 Table Name Close 1D% RSI RSI 14 (Over Sold) From Page 3 Table Name Close 1D% RSI TASI (30min) Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

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Page 1: Daily Technical Trader - KSA April 04, 2016

COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 1 of 5

Daily Technical Trader – KSA

Monday, 04 April 2016

Stock Covered Today

Ticker Price (SAR) 1st

Target

BJAZ 13.14 13.64

TASI All Share Index

Level % Ch. Vol. (mn)

Last 6,126.12 -1.56 183.4

Resistance/Support

Levels 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 6,170 6,260 6,450

Support 6,100 6,000 5,750

TASI All Share Index Commentary

Overview:

The Index corrected further as we

expected and could continue with this

correction in the short term. Remaining

above the 6,000 is vital; the Index remains

in a short-term uptrend if it remains

above that level.

Expected Resistance Level: 6,170

Expected Support Level: 6,100

TASI (Daily)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

TASI Summary

Market Indicators 03 Apr 31 Mar %Ch.

Value (SAR bn) 4.0 4.5 -10.7

Mkt. Cap. (SAR bn) 1,413.5 1,437.3 -1.7

Volume (mn) 212.5 217.4 -2.3

Transactions 111,748 116,341 -3.9

Companies Traded 168 168 0.0

Market Breadth 12:156 60:104 –

Saudi Equity Indices

Market Indices Close 1D% RSI

Banking 13,856.89 -1.46 39.16

Petrochem 3,922.89 -2.15 44.60

Cement 4,307.09 -1.05 42.00

Retail 9,433.70 -2.07 35.80

Energy and Utilities 5,616.39 -1.55 43.82

Agriculture and Food 7,591.55 -1.02 44.76

Telecom 1,531.67 -3.28 45.02

Insurance 1,103.09 -3.89 47.23

Multi-Investment 2,713.54 -1.73 44.53

Industrial Invest. 5,468.41 0.62 41.52

Building and Const. 1,874.50 -2.57 41.44

RE Development 5,772.92 -0.40 53.50

Transportation 6,825.93 0.77 58.74

Media & Publishing 2,591.12 -6.00 36.45

Hotel and Tourism 9,105.70 -2.44 34.93

RSI 14 (Over Bought) From Page 3 Table

Name Close 1D% RSI

RSI 14 (Over Sold) From Page 3 Table

Name Close 1D% RSI

TASI (30min)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

Page 2: Daily Technical Trader - KSA April 04, 2016

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BANK AL-JAZIRA

Price (SAR) % Ch. Volume

Last 13.14 -1.20 4,455,307

Resistance/Support

Levels (SAR) 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 13.35 13.64 13.88

Support 12.90 12.50 12.30

Commentary

Overview:

A buy recommendation kicked off our

coverage of Saudi equities. The price

reached our second target (over 3.7%

from trigger price) and way beyond. Then

a correction started to take place and still

is. That been said, we see that a change in

the direction upwards could spark another

short-term rally.

Expected Price Retreat: SAR13.64 –

SAR13.88

A price breakaway above SAR13.35

triggers the buy recommendation.

Suggested Stop-Loss Price: SAR12.50

(Daily)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

(Hourly)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

Page 3: Daily Technical Trader - KSA April 04, 2016

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Intraday Fibonacci Sup/Res Levels for the Most Active in Traded Value Daily Moving Averages Support Levels Resistance Levels

Ticker Close 3rd

2nd

1st

Pivot 1st

2nd

3rd

50 SMA 100 SMA 200 SMA

ADVANCED PETROCH 39.75 38.52 39.01 39.32 39.82 40.31 40.62 41.12 37.72 39.40 44.58

AL ALAMIYA COOPE 28.97 26.99 28.10 28.78 29.89 31.00 31.68 32.79 30.21 42.99 50.01

AL RAJHI BANK 51.50 49.33 50.00 50.41 51.08 51.75 52.16 52.83 52.11 51.16 54.58

AL TAYYAR TRAVEL 34.58 33.66 34.04 34.28 34.66 35.04 35.28 35.66 38.62 51.63 68.26

ALANDALUS PROPER 19.53 18.14 18.79 19.19 19.84 20.49 20.89 21.54 20.97 N/A N/A

ALINMA BANK 12.67 12.49 12.57 12.61 12.69 12.77 12.81 12.89 13.23 13.62 16.44

ALINMA TOKIO MAR 18.02 16.51 17.19 17.62 18.31 18.99 19.42 20.11 19.59 20.68 21.12

ASH-SHARQIYAH DE 38.10 35.23 36.46 37.21 38.43 39.66 40.41 41.63 39.54 46.28 56.56

BANK AL-JAZIRA 13.14 12.71 12.87 12.96 13.11 13.27 13.36 13.51 13.09 14.39 18.78

BUPA ARABIA 114.41 108.80 111.00 112.36 114.55 116.75 118.11 120.30 110.40 108.91 115.90

CO FOR COOPERATI 76.10 72.20 74.11 75.29 77.20 79.11 80.29 82.20 72.93 73.57 81.98

DAR AL ARKAN REA 5.03 4.81 4.91 4.96 5.06 5.16 5.21 5.31 4.84 5.42 6.51

EMAAR ECONOMIC C 13.83 13.48 13.65 13.75 13.93 14.10 14.20 14.38 13.06 12.23 12.14

ETIHAD ETISALAT 28.79 27.86 28.25 28.48 28.86 29.25 29.48 29.86 25.20 26.44 28.01

JABAL OMAR DEVEL 56.48 52.83 53.97 54.68 55.83 56.97 57.68 58.83 51.67 52.66 59.43

KNOWLEDGE ECON 13.32 12.74 12.99 13.14 13.39 13.64 13.79 14.04 11.96 13.15 16.88

MALATH INSURANCE 13.80 12.87 13.29 13.55 13.97 14.39 14.65 15.07 14.09 17.01 21.86

MEDITERRANEAN & 19.44 18.15 18.78 19.17 19.80 20.43 20.82 21.45 18.45 21.52 26.76

MOBILE TELECOMMU 8.40 8.07 8.22 8.31 8.47 8.62 8.71 8.87 6.77 7.49 8.87

NATIONAL COMM 39.63 38.74 39.16 39.42 39.84 40.26 40.52 40.94 40.37 44.79 51.36

NATIONAL SHIPPIN 42.96 41.32 41.82 42.12 42.62 43.12 43.42 43.92 38.47 41.37 42.41

RABIGH REFINING 10.20 9.93 10.05 10.12 10.23 10.35 10.42 10.53 9.81 11.08 14.86

SABB TAKAFUL 23.97 22.06 22.97 23.54 24.46 25.37 25.94 26.86 24.04 28.06 34.64

SABIC 74.36 72.45 73.12 73.53 74.20 74.87 75.28 75.95 72.02 75.92 81.88

SAPTCO 11.98 11.66 11.77 11.85 11.96 12.07 12.15 12.26 11.41 14.09 18.21

SASCO 15.89 15.23 15.50 15.66 15.93 16.20 16.36 16.63 15.73 18.65 22.28

SAUDI ARABIAN MI 29.54 27.58 28.19 28.57 29.18 29.79 30.17 30.78 30.42 31.79 33.17

SAUDI CERAMIC CO 37.95 37.25 37.48 37.62 37.85 38.08 38.22 38.45 37.53 42.36 54.60

SAUDI GROUND SER 40.74 38.65 39.30 39.70 40.35 41.00 41.40 42.05 42.00 43.82 N/A

SAUDI KAYAN PETR 4.96 4.82 4.88 4.91 4.97 5.03 5.06 5.12 4.97 6.06 7.77

SAUDI PAPER MANU 12.53 11.58 12.04 12.32 12.78 13.24 13.52 13.98 13.63 15.65 17.48

SAUDI PRINTING & 18.87 17.66 18.29 18.68 19.31 19.94 20.33 20.96 20.73 22.05 19.43

SAUDI RESEARCH A 38.52 34.91 36.24 37.07 38.41 39.74 40.57 41.91 42.17 43.88 30.07

SAUDI TELECOM CO 61.56 59.69 60.74 61.39 62.44 63.49 64.14 65.19 65.10 65.29 65.03

SAUDI TRANSPORT 49.22 48.14 48.60 48.88 49.34 49.80 50.08 50.54 52.28 57.08 60.08

SHAMS 33.07 30.56 31.70 32.41 33.56 34.70 35.41 36.56 36.36 36.21 37.90

THIMAR 30.17 27.66 28.80 29.51 30.66 31.80 32.51 33.66 33.31 35.16 45.69

TIHAMA 32.97 30.46 31.56 32.25 33.36 34.46 35.15 36.26 34.80 31.54 46.87 Sources: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research; Note: Numbers in Italics denote moving averages that are above the given index level/stock price

Page 4: Daily Technical Trader - KSA April 04, 2016

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Definitions:

Candlestick: A chart that displays the high, low, opening and closing prices for a security in a single period. The body of the candle is made up by the opening and

the closing prices, i.e., the taller the body the greater the range between these two prices and vice versa. A colored candle denotes a closing price that is lower

than the opening price, while a white candle shows the opposite. The candlestick's shadows or wicks show the period's high and low prices and how they

compare to the opening and closing price. In general, the shape of the candle will vary upon the positions of the period's high, low, opening and closing prices.

Support: A level that could cause more buyers to step in in order to prevent the security from falling or causing the security price to head higher.

Resistance: An inverse of a support level. A resistance area or level could cause more sellers to step in in order to prevent the security from rising or causing the

security price to head lower.

SMA (Simple Moving Average): Is an arithmetic average, which calculates the average price of a security over a defined number of periods and is thus considered

a lagging indicator. SMAs used in our analysis refer to closing prices. In general, SMAs serve many purposes, such as a smoothing tool, an indicative price

direction and potential support/resistance levels.

Market Breadth: Breadth indicates the number of securities that have closed higher vs. the number of decliners in a particular exchange.

MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Is a trading indicator, which shows changes in the strength, direction, momentum and duration of a trend in

a stock's price through a collection of three time series calculated from historical closing price data.

RSI (Relative Strength Index): Is a momentum indicator that compares a security’s price gains to its losses for a predetermined number of periods (we generally

use 14 periods). The RSI attempts to point out how a security, in relative terms, is in the overbought/oversold zone. Securities with a RSI above 70 could be

considered as overbought, and below 30 could be considered as oversold.

Pattern/Formation: Is a graphical presentation of a security’s price activity over a certain period of time. Formations come in different shapes (such as, head &

shoulders, triangles, flags, and so on). They can be used to identify potential trends, reversal of trends, price targets, entry and exit points, etc.

Fibonacci Retracements: Are horizontal lines that indicate expected areas of support/resistance for a security based on a predetermined price movement. These

levels are usually indicated by Fibonacci ratios of 23.6%, 38.2%, 50.0%, 61.8% and 100% from that particular movement.

Fibonacci Pivot and Intraday Support/Resistance: A Pivot Point is generally used to formulate expected future support/resistance levels. From the base Pivot

Point, Fibonacci multiples of the high-low differential are added to form resistance levels and subtracted to form support levels.

Page 5: Daily Technical Trader - KSA April 04, 2016

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Contacts:

Zaid al-Nafoosi, CMT, CFTe Saugata Sarkar Shahan Keushgerian

Senior Research Analyst Head of Research Senior Research Analyst

Tel: (+974) 4476 6535 Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6509

[email protected] [email protected] [email protected]

QNB Financial Services SPC

Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666

PO Box 24025

Doha, Qatar

Disclaimer and Copyright Notice: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of QNB SAQ (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar

Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange QNB SAQ is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer,

promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. QNBFS accepts no liability whatsoever for any

direct or indirect losses arising from use of this report. Any investment decision should depend on the individual circumstances of the investor and be based on specifically engaged investment advice.

We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources

that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. QNBFS does not make any representations or warranties as to the

accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. For reports dealing with Technical Analysis, expressed opinions and/or recommendations may be

different or contrary to the opinions/recommendations of QNBFS Fundamental Research as a result of depending solely on the historical technical data (price and volume). QNBFS reserves the right to

amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and

opinions included in this report. This report may not be reproduced in whole or in part without permission from QNBFS.