daily outlook - valbury

of 12

01 October 2020

Daily Outlook GLOBAL MARKETS & ECONOMIES | WEEKLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS | CURRENCIES | PRECIOUS METAL | O I L |

GLOBAL ECONOMIES

The Canadian economy continued to expand in July and August, clawing back from a steep drop due to the coronavirus pandemic, though the pace of growth slowed through the summer, Statistics Canada data and estimates showed on Wednesday.

The Canadian economy grew 3 percent over a month earlier in July 2020, following a 6.5 percent expansion in the previous month and matching market expectations.

The current environment of lower inflation needs to be reflected in the central bank's inflation aim, as the concerns policymakers face are different from those in previous years, ECB President Christine Lagarde said at a press conference on September 30th.

European stocks erased earlier losses on Wednesday but were still heading for a monthly drop for the first time since a dramatic stock market crash back in March.

The British economy contracted 21.5 percent year-on-year in the second quarter of 2020, slightly less than initial estimates of a 21.7 percent drop.

Contracts to buy U.S. previously owned homes surged to a record high in August, suggesting housing market activity was gathering speed amid record-low mortgage rates.

Corporate profits in the United States tumbled by 10.7 percent to an over four-year low of USD 1.59 trillion in the second quarter of 2020, compared to an initial estimate of an 11.8 percent decline.

The US economy shrank by an annualized 31.4 percent in the second quarter of 2020, slightly lower than a 31.7 percent plunge in the second estimate and a 32.9 percent fall in the advance one.

GLOBAL MARKETS

Global equity markets rose and safe-haven assets including the dollar were mixed on Wednesday as investors weighed a rising number of COVID-19 cases and a chaotic U.S. presidential debate against better-than-expected U.S. private jobs data on the last day of a turbulent quarter.

MSCI’s gauge of stocks across the globe gained 0.43% following modest gains in Europe and mixed trading in Asia.

Oil dropped approximately 10% for the month, while gold’s 4.1% drop was its worst month since late 2016.

Benchmark 10-year notes fell 12/32 in price to yield 0.6824%, from 0.645% late on Tuesday.

FOREX

The dollar fell against most currencies in choppy trading on Wednesday, as risk sentiment improved on renewed hopes for another stimulus package that could help ease the economic pain of the coronavirus-induced recession. Overall, the dollar posted it worst quarter since September 2017, with a fall of about 3.5% as expectations for a swift recovery from the COVID-19 economic crash made investors exit safe havens and buy into riskier currencies. The greenback slid against the Japanese yen and weakened versus currencies associated with higher risk appetite such as the Australian, New Zealand and Canadian dollars. U.S. House of Representative Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin met on Wednesday in a bid to broker a bipartisan deal on stalled COVID-19 relief legislation ahead of the Nov. 3 election. Shares on Wall Street rose, while U.S. Treasury prices fell as risk aversion eased. U.S. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell late on Wednesday poured cold water though on some of that optimism. He said Republicans and Democrats are still very far apart on how much to spend on another coronavirus relief package. The dollar index last traded little changed at 93.89. The index hit a two-month high last Friday. Tuesday’s highly contentious debate between U.S. President Donald Trump and Democratic challenger Joe Biden boosted the dollar earlier, as it reinforced concerns that the outcome of the Nov. 3 presidential election could be contested. Trump and Biden battled fiercely over the Republican incumbent’s record on the coronavirus pandemic, health care and the economy in a chaotic and ill-tempered first debate marked by the current president’s personal insults and repeated interruptions. The greenback earlier was also boosted by quarter-end and month-end portfolio rebalancing, analysts said. Demand for dollars tends to rise at the end of quarters as portfolio rebalancing and fund transfers require currencies like the euro and sterling to be converted to dollars. U.S. economic data was also for the most part dollar-supportive. U.S. private employers stepped up hiring in September, with private payrolls increasing by 749,000 jobs this month, the ADP National Employment Report showed on Wednesday.

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01 October 2020

Another piece of data, however, showed U.S. gross domestic product plunged at a 31.4% annualized rate in the second quarter, the steepest drop since the government started keeping records in 1947. The dollar fell 0.2% against the yen to 105.49. The Australian dollar rose 0.5% against the greenback to US$0.7163. The New Zealand dollar gained 0.4% to US$0.6611 . Against the Canadian dollar, the U.S. dollar fell 0.6% C$1.3312. The euro was down 0.2% against the dollar at $1.1717.

GOLD

Gold edged down on Wednesday, as a chaotic first U.S. presidential debate drove investors to the safety of the dollar and raised concerns over the next stimulus bill, leading the metal towards its worst month in nearly four years. Spot gold was 0.3% lower at $1,892.33 per ounce by 2:17 pm EDT (1817 GMT) and down about 4% in September, on track for its worst monthly performance since Nov. 2016. U.S. gold futures settled down 0.4% at $1,895.50. The first U.S. presidential debate between President Donald Trump and Democratic rival Joe Biden turned investors cautious and drove them to seek refuge in the dollar, reducing gold’s appeal for other currency holders. The dollar index was set for its best month since July 2019. Despite the recent pullback, most analysts see an upward trajectory for gold in the medium to long term. The metal is on track for its eighth straight quarterly gain. Silver fell 3% to $23.55 per ounce and platinum rose 1.3% to $895.99. Silver was on track for its worst month since September 2011, down about 17% so far this month, while platinum was set for its biggest fall since March, declining over 3%. Palladium was steady at $2,309.20.

OIL

Global benchmark Brent crude pared losses Wednesday and the U.S. crude price rose on hopes that a U.S. economic stimulus deal would support the market, even as concerns about the coronavirus pandemic continued to loom over demand forecasts. U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin both expressed hope for a breakthrough on coronavirus relief, as the House stood poised to vote on a new $2.2 trillion Democratic coronavirus bill. With pressure mounting ahead of the Nov. 3 election, Mnuchin said he thought he and Pelosi could “reach a reasonable compromise” and would know in the next day or two whether they had an “overall understanding.” Progress on the stimulus brought Brent crude for November delivery up from its session low of $40.30 a barrel. It ended the session down 8 cents at $40.95 a barrel. West Texas Intermediate rose 93 cents, or 2.4% to $40.22 a barrel. The November Brent contract expires on Wednesday, to be replaced by the December contract, which settled up 74 cents at $42.30 a barrel. Also supporting prices, U.S. weekly crude inventory data showed stockpiles fell by 2 million barrels in the week to Sept. 25, a deeper draw than analysts had expected. Exports rose while imports fell, helping facilitate the drawdown. Net U.S. crude imports fell last week by 536,000 barrels per day, EIA said, to 1.6 million bpd. The benchmarks fell more than 3% on Tuesday as global COVID-19 cases passed 1 million, having doubled in three months.. A Reuters monthly oil poll showed prices would have little upside this year. CEOs of the world’s biggest trading companies are forecasting a weak recovery for oil demand and little movement in prices, potentially for years. Marathon Petroleum Corp, the largest oil refiner in the United States, started imposing job cuts on Tuesday, according to people familiar with the matter. Royal Dutch Shell also said it would cut up to 9,000 jobs. To counter the fall in demand, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries is unlikely to increase oil production as planned from January next year, top oil traders said on Tuesday.

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01 October 2020

ECONOMIC INDICATORS

DATE WIB CTY INDICATORS PER ACTUAL FORECAS

T PREV. REV.

Mon/28-Sep-20 12:00 JP Coincident Index Jul F -- 76.2

12:00 JP Leading Index CI Jul F -- 86.9

All CN Bank Holiday

16:45 EZ ECB Executive Board member Schnabel Speaks in Online Meeting

20:30 EZ ECB Executive Board member Schnabel Speaks in Frankfurt

20:45 EZ ECB's Lagarde in European Parliament Hearing 21:30 US Dallas Fed Manf. Activity Sep 13.6 8.5 8

Tue/29-Sep-20 01:00 US Fed's Mester Participates in Economic Equality Webinar

04:00 KR Business Survey Manufacturing Oct 70 -- 68 04:00 KR Business Survey Non-Manufacturing Oct -- 69

06:00 KR Cyclical Leading Index Change Aug -- 0.4 06:00 KR Industrial Production SA MoM Aug -0.7% 1.9% 1.6% 1.9% 06:00 KR Industrial Production YoY Aug -3.0% -1.2% -2.5% -2.4%

06:50 JP BOJ Summary of Opinions 15:30 GB Consumer Credit YoY Aug -- -3.6% 15:30 GB Mortgage Approvals Aug 84.70k 73k 66.3k

15:30 GB Net Consumer Credit Aug 300b 1.5b 1.2b 1.1b 16:00 EZ Consumer Confidence Sep F -13.9 -13.9 -13.9

16:00 EZ Economic Confidence Sep 91.1 89.5 87.7 16:00 EZ Industrial Confidence Sep -11.1 -9.5 -12.7 16:00 EZ Services Confidence Sep -11.1 -15.3 -17.2

19:00 DE CPI EU Harmonized MoM Sep P -0.4% -0.1% -0.2% 19:00 DE CPI EU Harmonized YoY Sep P -0.4% -0.1% -0.1% 19:00 DE CPI MoM Sep P -0.2% -0.1% -0.1%

19:00 DE CPI YoY Sep P -0.2% -0.1% 0.0% 19:25 US Fed’s Williams Discusses Libor Countdown

19:30 US Advance Goods Trade Balance Aug $-82.94b $-82.4b $-79.3b $-80.11b 19:30 CA Industrial Product Price MoM Aug 0.3% 0.7% 0.7% 19:30 US Retail Inventories MoM Aug 0.9% -- 1.2% 0.6%

19:30 US Wholesale Inventories MoM Aug P 0.5% -- -0.3% 20:00 US S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA Jul 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3%

20:00 US S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index Jul -- 225.13 20:00 US S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA Jul 3.9% 3.8% 3.46% 3.5% 20:00 US S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index Jul -- 219.82

20:00 US S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA Jul 3.9% 3.8% 4.29% 3.5%

20:15 US Fed’s Williams Speaks at U.S. Treasury Market Conference

20:30 US Fed’s Harker Discusses Machine Learning 21:00 US Conf. Board Consumer Confidence Sep 101.8 89.2 84.8 86.3 21:00 US Conf. Board Expectations Sep -- 85.2

21:00 US Conf. Board Present Situation Sep -- 84.2 22:40 US Fed's Clarida to Moderate Panel on Treasury Market

Wed/30-Sep-20 00:00 US Fed’s Williams Takes Part in a Fireside Chat

00:00 US Fed's Quarles to Speak on Panel on Financial Regulation 02:00 US Fed Quarles to Speak on Financial Stability Webinar 06:01 GB Lloyds Business Barometer Sep -- -14

06:50 JP Industrial Production MoM Aug P 1.7% 1.5% 8.7% 06:50 JP Industrial Production YoY Aug P -13.3% -13.5% -15.5%

06:50 JP Retail Sales MoM Aug 4.6% 1.9% -3.3% -3.4% 06:50 JP Retail Sales YoY Aug -1.9% -3.5% -2.8% -2.9% 07:00 NZ ANZ Activity Outlook Sep F -5.4% -- -9.9% -17.5%

07:00 NZ ANZ Business Confidence Sep F -28.5 -- -26 -41.8 08:00 CN Composite PMI Sep 55.1 -- 54.5 08:00 CN Manufacturing PMI Sep 51.5 51.2 51

08:00 CN Non-manufacturing PMI Sep 55.9 54.9 55.2 08:30 AU Building Approvals MoM Aug -1.6% -2% 12.0%

08:30 AU Private Sector Credit MoM Aug 0.0% -- -0.1% 08:30 AU Private Sector Credit YoY Aug 2.2% -- 2.4% 08:30 AU Private Sector Houses MoM Aug 4.8% -- 8.5%

08:45 CN Caixin China PMI Mfg Sep 53 53.1 53.1 13:00 JP Construction Orders YoY Aug 28.5% -- -22.9% 13:00 GB Current Account Balance 2Q £-2.8B £-0.4B £-21.1b £-20.8B

13:00 GB Exports QoQ 2Q F -- -11.3% 13:00 GB GDP QoQ 2Q F -19.8% -20.4% -20.4% -2.5%

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01 October 2020

13:00 GB GDP YoY 2Q F -21.7% -21.7% 13:00 GB Government Spending QoQ 2Q F -- -14.0% 13:00 GB Imports QoQ 2Q F -- -23.4%

13:00 JP Machine Tool Orders YoY Aug F -- -23.3% 13:00 GB Private Consumption QoQ 2Q F -- -23.1% 13:00 GB Total Business Investment QoQ 2Q F -26.5% -- -31.4% -0.5%

13:00 GB Total Business Investment YoY 2Q F -26.1% -- -31.3% 1.1% 13:00 DE Retail Sales MoM Aug 3.1% 0.5% -0.9% -0.2%

13:00 DE Retail Sales NSA YoY Aug 3.7% 4.2% 4.2% 5% 13:00 GB Nationwide House PX MoM Sep 0.9% 0.5% 2.0% 13:00 GB Nationwide House Px NSA YoY Sep 5% 4.5% 3.7%

14:00 CH KOF Leading Indicator Sep 113.8 106 110.2 14:20 EZ ECB's Lagarde Speaks at ECB and Its Watchers Conference 14:55 DE Unemployment Change (000's) Sep -8K -8k -9k

14:55 DE Unemployment Claims Rate SA Sep 6.3% 6.4% 6.4% 15:00 CH Credit Suisse Survey Expectations Sep 26.2 -- 45.6

15:30 HK Retail Sales Value YoY Aug -13.1% -17.0% -23.1% 15:30 HK Retail Sales Volume YoY Aug -13.4% -- -23.9% -23.8% 19:15 US ADP Employment Change Sep 749K 650k 428k 481K

19:30 US Core PCE QoQ 2Q T -0.8% -1% -1.0% 1.6% 19:30 US GDP Annualized QoQ 2Q T -31.4% -31.7% -31.7% -5% 19:30 CA GDP MoM Jul 3% 3% 6.5%

19:30 US GDP Price Index 2Q T -2.1% -2.0% -2.0% 1.7% 19:30 CA GDP YoY Jul -- -7.8%

19:30 US Personal Consumption 2Q T -33.2% -- -34.1% 20:45 US MNI Chicago PMI Sep 52 51.2

21:00 EZ ECB Chief Economist Lane Speaks at ECB Watchers Conference

21:00 US Pending Home Sales MoM Aug 8.8% 3.4% 5.9% 21:00 US Pending Home Sales NSA YoY Aug 24.2% -- 15.4% 15.5%

21:30 US DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory Sep-25 1785K -- 4k 21:30 US DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories Sep-25 -1980K 1569K -1639k

21:30 US DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory Sep-25 -3184K 917K -3363k 21:30 US DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories Sep-25 683K 1083K -4025k 22:00 US Fed’s Kashkari Discusses Covid and the Economy

Thu/01-Oct-20 00:40 US Fed's Bowman to Speak on Community Banks

05:30 AU AiG Perf of Mfg Index Sep -- 49.3 06:00 AU CBA Australia PMI Mfg Sep F -- 55.5 06:50 JP Tankan Large All Industry Capex 3Q 0.5% 3.2%

06:50 JP Tankan Large Mfg Index 3Q -22 -34 06:50 JP Tankan Large Mfg Outlook 3Q -16 -27

06:50 JP Tankan Large Non-Mfg Index 3Q -9 -17 06:50 JP Tankan Large Non-Mfg Outlook 3Q -7 -14 06:50 JP Tankan Small Mfg Index 3Q -37 -45

06:50 JP Tankan Small Mfg Outlook 3Q -34 -47 06:50 JP Tankan Small Non-Mfg Index 3Q -21 -26 06:50 JP Tankan Small Non-Mfg Outlook 3Q -21 -33

All CN Bank Holiday All KR Bank Holiday (Chuseok Festivity)

All HK Bank Holiday (National Holiday) 07:00 AU CoreLogic House Px MoM Sep -- -0.5% 07:00 KR Exports YoY Sep 4.2% -9.9%

07:00 KR Imports YoY Sep -- -16.3% 07:00 KR Trade Balance Sep -- $4116m 07:30 JP Jibun Bank Japan PMI Mfg Sep F -- 47.3

08:30 AU Job vacancies Aug -- -43.2% 01-Oct - 07-Oct N/A JP Official Reserve Assets Sep -- $1398.5b

13:30 AU Commodity Index AUD Sep -- 94.2 13:30 AU Commodity Index SDR YoY Sep -- -9.2% 13:30 AU Commodity Index SDR YoY Sep -- -9.2%

13:30 CH CPI Core YoY Sep -- -0.4% 13:30 CH CPI EU Harmonized MoM Sep -- -0.1%

13:30 CH CPI EU Harmonized YoY Sep -- -1.4% 13:30 CH CPI MoM Sep 0.0% 0.0% 13:30 CH CPI YoY Sep -0.7% -0.9%

13:30 CH Retail Sales Real YoY Aug -- 4.1% 14:30 CH PMI Manufacturing Sep 53.2 51.8 14:55 DE Markit/BME Germany Manufacturing PMI Sep F 56.6 56.6

15:00 EZ Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Sep F 53.7 53.7 15:30 GB Markit UK PMI Manufacturing SA Sep F 54.3 54.3

16:00 EZ PPI MoM Aug -- 0.6% 16:00 EZ PPI YoY Aug -- -3.3%

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01 October 2020

16:00 EZ Unemployment Rate Aug 8.1% 7.9%

19:30 US Continuing Claims Sep-19 -- 12580k 19:30 US Initial Jobless Claims Sep-26 -- 870k 19:30 CA MLI Leading Indicator MoM Aug -- 0.3%

19:30 US PCE Core Deflator MoM Aug 0.3% 0.3% 19:30 US PCE Core Deflator YoY Aug 1.5% 1.3%

19:30 US PCE Deflator MoM Aug 0.3% 0.3% 19:30 US PCE Deflator YoY Aug 1.3% 1.0% 19:30 US Personal Income Aug -2.1% 0.4%

19:30 US Personal Spending Aug 0.7% 1.9% 19:30 US Real Personal Spending Aug -- 1.6% 20:30 CA Markit Canada Manufacturing PMI Sep -- 55.1

20:45 US Markit US Manufacturing PMI Sep F -- 53.5 21:00 US Construction Spending MoM Aug 0.8% 0.1%

21:00 US ISM Employment Sep -- 46.4 21:00 US ISM Manufacturing Sep 55.9 56 21:00 US ISM New Orders Sep -- 67.6

21:00 US ISM Prices Paid Sep 59 59.5 22:00 US Fed’s Wiliams Moderates Discussion with Merck’s Frazier

22:00 US Fed’s Williams gives welcoming remarks at Fintech Conference

22:45 EZ ECB Chief Economist Lane Speaks in Online Conference

Fri/02-Oct-20 04:00 NZ ANZ Consumer Confidence Index Sep -- 100.2

04:00 NZ ANZ Consumer Confidence MoM Sep -- -3.9% 06:30 JP Jobless Rate Aug 3.0% 2.9% 06:30 JP Job-To-Applicant Ratio Aug 1.05 1.08

All CN Bank Holiday All KR Bank Holiday (Chuseok Festivity) All HK Bank Holiday (National Holiday)

08:30 AU Retail Sales MoM Aug -5.4% 3.2% N/A DE Germany Sovereign Debt to be rated by S&P

12:00 JP Consumer Confidence Index Sep -- 29.3 16:00 EZ CPI Core YoY Sep P 0.4% 0.4% 16:00 EZ CPI Estimate YoY Sep -0.2% -0.2%

16:00 EZ CPI MoM Sep P 0.3% -0.4% 19:30 US Average Hourly Earnings MoM Sep 0.2% 0.4% 19:30 US Average Hourly Earnings YoY Sep 4.8% 4.7%

19:30 US Average Weekly Hours All Employees Sep 34.6 34.6 19:30 US Change in Manufact. Payrolls Sep 40k 29k

19:30 US Change in Nonfarm Payrolls Sep 865k 1371k 19:30 US Change in Private Payrolls Sep 965k 1027k 19:30 US Labor Force Participation Rate Sep -- 61.7%

19:30 US Two-Month Payroll Net Revision Sep -- -39k 19:30 US Underemployment Rate Sep -- 14.2% 19:30 US Unemployment Rate Sep 8.2% 8.4%

20:00 US Fed’s Harker Discusses an Inclusive Workforce Recovery 21:00 US Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air Aug F -- --

21:00 US Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air Aug F -- -- 21:00 US Durable Goods Orders Aug F -- -- 21:00 US Durables Ex Transportation Aug F -- --

21:00 US Factory Orders Aug 1.0% 6.4% 21:00 US Factory Orders Ex Trans Aug -- 2.1% 21:00 US U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation Sep F -- 2.7%

21:00 US U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation Sep F -- 2.6% 21:00 US U. of Mich. Current Conditions Sep F -- 87.5

21:00 US U. of Mich. Expectations Sep F -- 73.3 21:00 US U. of Mich. Sentiment Sep F 79 78.9

Sat/03-Oct-20 00:00 US Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count Oct-02 -- --

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01 October 2020

@researchvaf @rekhmen


EUR/USD

Interest Rate: 0.00% (EU)/ 0.00%-0.25% (US)

1.18262

RESISTANCE 1.17899

1.17562

SUPPORT

1.16862

1.16499

1.16162

SUGGESTION

BUY 1.1715

SELL ---

S/L 1.1670

T/P:

1.1775 1.1795

DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE CHANGE PREVIOUS

Sep 30 1.17393 1.17537 1.16837 70,0 1.17224 16,5 1.17059

WEEKLY SEPTEMBER 2020

HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW

1.17537 (30/Sep) 1.16139 (28/Sep) 1.20100 (01/Sep) 1.16110 (25/Sep) 1.20100 (01/Sep) 1.06362 (20/Mar) All price & chart based on Valbury MT4 Platform

USDJPY Interest Rate: 0.00%-0.25% (US)/-0.1% (JP)

106.085

RESISTANCE 105.939

105.684

SUPPORT

105.283

105.137

104.882

SUGGESTION

BUY ---

SELL 105.45

S/L 105.75

T/P:

104.95 104.75


Sep 30 105.632 105.793 105.392 40,1 105.429 50,7 104.922



105.793 (30/Sep) 105.252 (28/Sep) 106.540 (03/Sep) 103.989 (21/Sep) 112.213 (20/Feb) 101.170 (09/Mar)

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01 October 2020



GBP/USD Interest Rate: 0.10% (GB)/ 0.00%-0.25% (US) 1.31052

RESISTANCE 1.30233

1.29684

SUPPORT

1.28316

1.27497

1.26948

SUGGESTION

BUY 1.2900

SELL ---

S/L 1.2830

T/P:

1.3010 1.3050


Sep 30 1.28574 1.29413 1.28045 136,8 1.29136 180,1 1.27335



1.29413 (30/Sep) 1.27499 (28/Sep) 1.34813 (01/Sep) 1.26740 (23/Sep) 1.34813 (01/Sep) 1.14094 (20/Mar)

All price & chart based on Valbury MT4 Platform

USD/CHF Interest Rate: 0.00%-0.25% (US)/ -1.25 to -0.25% (CH)

0.93252

RESISTANCE 0.92843

0.92431

SUPPORT

0.91610

0.91201

0.90789

SUGGESTION

BUY ---

SELL 0.9215

S/L 0.9255

T/P:

0.9155 0.9135


Sep 30 0.91931 0.92434 0.91613 82,1 0.92019 9,8 0.91921



0.92944 (28/Sep) 0.91613 (30/Sep) 0.92952 (25/Sep) 0.89979 (01/Sep) 0.98998 (20/Mar) 0.89975 (31/Aug)

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01 October 2020



AUD/USD Interest Rate: 0.25% (AU)/ 0.00%-0.25% (US)

0.72648

RESISTANCE 0.72194

0.71897

SUPPORT

0.71146

0.70692

0.70395

SUGGESTION

BUY 0.7155

SELL ---

S/L 0.7115

T/P:

0.7215 0.7235


Sep 30 0.71286 0.71740 0.70989 75,1 0.71600 31,3 0.71287



0.71740 (30/Sep) 0.70313 (28/Sep) 0.74124 (01/Sep) 0.70047 (25/Sep) 0.74124 (01/Sep) 0.55067 (19/Mar)


NZD/USD Interest Rate: 0.25% (NZ)/ 0.00%-0.25% (US) 0.66922

RESISTANCE 0.66585

0.66358

SUPPORT

0.65794

0.65457

0.65230

SUGGESTION

BUY 0.6615

SELL ---

S/L 0.6580

T/P:

0.6670 0.6685


Sep 30 0.65856 0.66247 0.65683 56,4 0.66132 28,1 0.65851



0.66247 (30/Sep) 0.65385(28/Sep) 0.67966 (18/Sep) 0.65104 (24/Sep) 0.67966 (18/Sep) 0.54682 (19/Mar)

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01 October 2020



USD/CAD Interest Rate: 0.00%-0.25% (US)/ 0.25% (CA) 1.35103

RESISTANCE 1.34647

1.33916

SUPPORT

1.32730

1.32275

1.31544

SUGGESTION

BUY ---

SELL 1.3330

S/L 1.3385

T/P:

1.3245 1.3210


Sep 30 1.33832 1.34192 1.33006 118,6 1.33186 66,0 1.33846



1.34192 (30/Sep) 1.33006 (30/Sep) 1.34192 (30/Sep) 1.29932 (01/Sep) 1.46674 (19/Mar) 1.29559 (07/Jan)


EURJPY Interest Rate: 0.00% (EU)/-0.1% (JP)

124.765

RESISTANCE 124.498

124.048

SUPPORT

123.331

123.064

122.614

SUGGESTION

BUY 123.55

SELL ---

S/L 123.15

T/P:

124.05 124.25


Sep 30 124.028 124.230 123.513 71,7 123.599 77,3 122.826



124.230 (30/Sep) 122.361 (28/Sep) 127.047 (01/Sep) 122.361 (28/Sep) 127.047 (01/Sep) 114.399 (06/May)

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01 October 2020



GOLD (XAU/USD)

1918.57

RESISTANCE 1910.37

1897.80

SUPPORT

1877.03

1868.83

1856.26

SUGGESTION

BUY 1880.00

SELL ---

S/L 1870.00

T/P:

1894.00 1900.00


Sep 30 1897.75 1902.17 1881.40 20.77 1885.24 11.91 1897.15



1902.17 (30/Sep) 1849.03 (28/Sep) 1992.22 (01/Sep) 1848.58 (24/Sep) 2075.18 (07/Aug) 1450.81 (16/Mar)


SILVER (XAG/USD)

25.138

RESISTANCE 24.713

23.959

SUPPORT

22.780

22.355

21.601

SUGGESTION

BUY ---

SELL 23.75

S/L 24.75

T/P:

22.25 21.75


Sep 30 24.234 24.287 23.108 1.179 23.206 0.937 24.143



24.385 (29/Sep) 22.498 (28/Sep) 28.881 (01/Sep) 21.642 (24/Sep) 29.834 (07/Aug) 11.616 (18/Mar)

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01 October 2020


OIL WTI – CL-NOV/USD (Exp. 16 Oct 2020)

42.26

RESISTANCE 41.31

40.58

SUPPORT

38.90

37.95

37.22

SUGGESTION

BUY 39.35

SELL ---

S/L 38.35

T/P:

40.85 41.85


Sep 30 39.15 40.36 38.68 1.68 39.85 0.76 39.09



40.79 (28/Sep) 38.41 (29/Sep) 43.41 (01/Sep) 36.12 (08/Sep) 65.63 (08/Jan) 6.54 (21/Apr)


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01 October 2020

daily outlook - valbury

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