Retail views

UBA Q4 results

Nigeria

Friday, 9 January 2015

Daily Retail Report .

Market Review

The Nigerian Equity Market traded with losses around 0.91%,

bringing the ASI close to the psychologically crucial 30,000 level.

Despite heavy losses in Large Caps Dangote Cement (-5%) and

Nestle (-4.84%), the benchmark index didn’t slip far into negative

territory. On sectoral front, some of the indices are showing sign of

recovery with BNK and CNSM witnessing value buying at low levels.

Despite this last show of value buying, the benchmark index closed

the first week of the year in negative terrain depreciating -11.67% to

return 30,143.02.

Five out of every twelve stocks that changed price in the broad

market closed strong with 37 issues remaining unchanged. Top on

the key loser's chart are Dangote Cement(N158.65), Nestle(N855),

JBerger(N52.02) and Total(N144.75) while Zenith(N9.53),

FCMB(N2.11), Nig. Brew.(N147) and Transcorp(N3.10) led the

gainer's chart. Highest value of trades were in Zenith, FCMB, FBNH

and GTB which accounted for over 53% of total value traded.

We see no catalyst in the very near term that could lift investors’

sentiment to full positive swing but advice taking position in time

for FY results.

Sector Report Today(%) Month-To-Date(%) Year-To-Date(%)

NSE30 -0.37 -13.64 -13.64

NSE BNK10 1.96 -13.81 -13.81

NSE CNSM10 0.61 -11.89 -11.89

NSE OILG5 -0.46 -6.35 -6.35

NSE INS10 -2.36 -4.58 -4.58

Market Wrap

ASI 30,143.02

Index year-to-date e -11.67

Market Cap. N9.979Tril

Traded value 2.735Bn

Key gainers (%)

ZENITHBANK 9.53

FCMB 4.98

NASCON 7.56

NB 4.48

DANGSUGAR 3.44

Key losers (%)

DANGCEM -5.00

JBERGER -4.99

HONEYFLOUR -4.97

TOTAL -4.85

NESTLE -4.84

NITTY

1M 11.1343

2M 11.2622

3M 12.8563

6M 13.1095

9M 14.3103

12M 15.0776

Crude oil spot price

Brent crude US$50.01

Contact information

Phone: 01-2713923; 01-2713920

Mobile: 08068015502

Email: cslservice@fcmb.com

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Retail views

Stock Recommendations

Banking Comment

Current

Price

Target

Price

Potential

Upside %

EPS

FY

2013

1 Yr

forward

EPS

Last

Dividend

(N)

P/BV

2013

Yield FY

2013

Yield FY

2014e

Shares

Outstanding

(millions)

Year

End

ACCESS BANK Hold 5.25 11.00 110% 1.60 1.90 0.35 0.80 7.10% 11.5% 22883.00 Dec.DIAMOND BANK Buy 4.80 8.10 69% 2.00 1.70 0.30 0.60 5.40% 5.4% 14475.00 Dec.FIDELITY BANK PLC Buy 1.50 3.00 100% 0.30 0.50 0.14 0.30 7.40% 11.6% 28974.00 Dec.FBN HOLDINGS Hold 7.99 14.70 84% 2.20 2.30 1.10 0.80 10.00% 10.0% 32632.00 Dec.GUARANTY TRUST BANK Buy 20.54 39.80 94% 3.20 3.30 1.45 2.20 6.90% 7.3% 29431.00 Dec.STANBIC HOLDINGS Hold 27.00 15.50 -43% 1.90 2.60 1.20 3.10 2.70% 3.5% 10000.00 Dec.STERLING BANK Hold 2.49 2.70 8% 0.40 0.40 0.25 0.80 10.90% 8.7% 21592.00 Dec.SKYE BANK Hold 2.31 5.00 116% 1.20 1.10 0.30 0.30 11.10% 20.7% 13219.00 Dec.U B A Hold 3.79 7.40 95% 1.40 1.50 0.50 0.70 10.10% 10.1% 32981.00 Dec.

ZENITH BANK Buy 16.43 31.50 92% 3.00 3.00 1.75 1.30 8.10% 8.3% 31396.00 Dec.

Food & BeverageEV/EBITDA (x)

2013

Yield FY

2013e

DANGOTE SUGAR REFINERY Under review 5.71 Under review N/A 0.89 1.20 0.60 4.70 7.40% 7.4% 12000.00 Dec.CADBURY NIG. Under review 42.00 Under review N/A 2.90 3.20 1.30 7.60 0.00% 4.7% 1878.00 Dec.FLOUR MILLS Hold 35.38 54.80 55% 2.90 3.50 1.60 8.90 3.30% 4.0% 2385.00 Mar.HONEYWELL FLOURMILLS Buy 3.06 5.20 70% 0.40 0.30 0.17 12.00 5.70% 4.7% 7930.00 Mar.NESTLE FOODS NIG. Hold 855.00 821.80 -4% 28.10 31.30 24.00 24.90 2.60% 3.0% 792.00 Dec.P Z INDUSTRIES Hold 24.54 34.60 41% 1.20 1.30 0.19 7.80 2.70% 3.0% 3970.00 MayU A C N Buy 28.08 72.60 159% 2.90 3.60 1.75 5.40 4.00% 4.7% 1920.00 Dec.UNILEVER NIGERIA PLC Sell 33.80 31.80 -6% 1.30 1.60 1.25 13.70 3.80% 3.8% 3783.00 Dec.

Building Materials EPS 2013eEV/EBITDA(x)

2013e

Yield FY

2013e

LAFARGE WAPCO PLC Under review 80.11 Under review N/A 9.40 9.40 3.30 8.20 3.30% 3.3% 3001.00 Mar.

DANGOTE CEMENT Buy 158.65 258.50 N/A 11.80 11.90 7.00 16.10 3.40% 3.5% 17040.00 Dec.

Breweries EPS 2013eEV/EBITDA(x)

2013e

Yield FY

2013eGUINNESS NIG. Sell 130.21 111.00 -15% 7.90 5.90 7.00 14.50 4.30% 3.0% 1506.00 JuneINTERNATIONAL BREWERIES Hold 21.39 24.50 15% 0.90 1.30 0.30 16.20 1.00% 1.5% 3263.00 Mar.NIGERIAN BREWERIES Sell 147.00 121.20 -18% 5.70 5.60 4.50 13.30 2.90% 2.1% 7562.00 June

Agriculture EPS 2013eEV/EBITDA (x)

2013e

Yield FY

2013e

OKOMU OIL Buy 25.46 41.50 63% 2.20 3.00 1.00 9.00 3.20% 6.7% 953.00 Dec.PRESCO PLC Buy 26.10 42.70 64% 1.29 1.60 0.10 9.20 0.40% 1.7% 1000.00 Dec.Pharmaceuticals EV/EBITDA (x)

2013

Yield FY 2013

GLAXOSMITHKLINE BEECHAM NIG. Buy 42.79 78.60 0.84 3.10 4.30 1.30 8.90 2.50% 3.8% 957.00 Dec.

Note – for full report on the recommended stocks kindly send an email to cslcsu@firstcitygroup.com

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Retail views

Top Highlight

Buhari and Jonathan meet again in 2015 elections, but this time it’s different

With barely five weeks to the Presidential polls, electoral campaigns have fully been set into motion by Nigeria’s two largest political parties: the

Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the All Progressives Congress (APC). There are 26 registered political parties in Nigeria, however, there are only 11 Presidential candidates contesting in the forthcoming polls, due in February 2015.

Yesterday, Goodluck Jonathan, Nigeria’s President and the Presidential flag-bearer for the ruling PDP flagged-off his re-election campaign at the

Tafawa Balewa Square, Lagos. On Tuesday, General Muhamudu Buhari, the Presidential candidate for the APC interestingly launched his

campaign in President Jonathan’s home town, Rivers State. Both campaigns have centred on tackling wide-spread corruption in the country,

which is thought to be the country’s most pressing problem and hindering government reforms.

Both President Jonathan and General Buhari (who ran under the platform of the defunct All Nigeria Peoples Party) contested in the 2011

Presidential polls, where President Jonathan secured 59% of the votes, almost twice the 32% secured by Buhari who earned the second-highest

votes.

In February 2013, Nigeria's three biggest opposition parties – the Action Congress of Nigeria, the Congress for Progressive Change, the All Nigeria Peoples Party – and a faction of the All Progressives Grand Alliance merged to form a more formidable party (APC) that will match up to the PDP,

which has ruled Nigeria since 1999 when the country returned to democracy. The APC has also been able to attract a sizable number of key PDP

members to its platform.

We believe that the competition between both candidates is likely to be stiffer this time around, given changes in the political landscape since the

2011 elections.

News Headlines

AMCON set to sell Air Nigeria assets: Three Boeing and Embraer planes as well as other assets belonging to Air Nigeria will soon be sold by the

Asset Management Corporation of Nigeria (AMCON), it has been learnt. The process that will lead to the sale of the assets has been commenced by

the bad debt manager, our correspondent gathered. The assets, which were acquired by AMCON several months ago, will be sold to recover the

debts owed banks, but which were taken over by the corporation. Source: punchng.com http://www.punchng.com/business/business-economy/amcon-set-to-sell-air-nigeria-assets/

Seplat confirms business combination talks with Afren: Seplat Petroleum Development Company Plc has confirmed that it made preliminary

approach to Afren Plc for a possible business combination. Afren, which is one of the leading oil firms playing in the Nigerian economy, and also listed on the London Stock Exchange (LSE) had last month announced the move by Seplat regarding the merger talk but said it was still at

preliminary stage. Seplat yesterday formerly notified the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) regarding the plan. Source: thisdaylive.com http://www.thisdaylive.com/articles/seplat-confirms-business-combination-talks-with-afren/198684/

Daily Retail Report

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Retail views

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