DAILY IFOREX REPORT

04th SEP 2013

Aussie, Pound Lead; US Dollar Holds Gains Despite Misleading Syrian Report

Gold, Crude Oil Look to US ISM Data for Direction Cues

Commodity prices are little-changed in European trade as investors look past a quiet local economic calendar toward the US data docket, where the release of Augusts’ ISM Manufacturing gauge begins a busy week of high-profile releases amid swirling Fed “taper” speculation. Economists’ forecasts point to a slight slowdown in factory-sector activity after the measure hit a 25-month high in July.

A soft print that is seen as limiting the scope for stimulus reduction is likely to boost risk appetite, offering cycle-sensitive commodities. It is likewise likely to weigh on the US Dollar, generating a corollary advance in the precious metals space. Needless to say, an upside surprise will probably produce the inverse dynamic. It is also important to keep in mind that crude oiland gold remain sensitive to headline risk surrounding the developing situation in Syria. Signs of imminent Western intervention are likely to drive fears of a wider conflict, boosting prices (and vice versa).

TRADING TIPS

SELL EURUSD BELOW

1.3160 TGT 1.3140/1.3110

SL 1.3190

BUY USDJPY ABOVE 99.80

TGT 100.00/100.30 SL

99.50

BUY GBPUSD ABOVE

1.5600 TGT 1.5620/1.5650

SL 1.5570

HEADLINES

HOURLY EURUSD CHART

HOURLY EURUSD CHART

ANALYSIS

EURUSD LOOKS DOWNWARD

TREND: BEARISH

STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE

MACD =>.0003(BEARISH SIGNAL)

RSI => 31(BEARISH SIGNAL)

HOURLY USDJPY CHART

ANALYSIS

USDJPY LOOKS UPWARD

TREND: BULLISH

STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS

MACD =>.10(BULLISH SIGNAL)

RSI =>55(BULLISH SIGNAL)

HOURLY GBPUSD CHART

ANALYSIS

GBPUSD LOOKS UPWARD

TREND: BULLISH

STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS

MACD =>.0004(BULLISH SIGNAL)

RSI =>46(BULLISH SIGNAL)

HOURLY EURGBP CHART

ANALYSIS

EURGBP LOOKS DOWNWARD

TREND: BEARISH

STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE

MACD =>.0004(BEARISH SIGNAL)

RSI =>30(BEARISH SIGNAL)

HOURLY USD INDEX CHART

ANALYSIS

USD INDEX LOOKS UPWARD

TREND: BULLISH

STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS

MACD =>.0001(BULLISH SIGNAL)

RSI =>62(BULLISH SIGNAL)

Date Time Currency Event Importance Actual Forecast Previous Notes

Sun Sep 1

01:00

CNY Manufacturing PMI

Medium 51.0 50.6 50.3

22:45

NZD Terms of Trade Index (QoQ) (2Q)

Medium 4.9% 3.8% 4.2%

23:01

GBP Hometrack Housing Survey (MoM) (AUG)

Low 0.4%

0.3%

23:01

GBP Hometrack Housing Survey (YoY) (AUG)

Low 1.8%

1.3%

23:30

AUD AiG Performance of Manufacturing Index (AUG)

Medium 46.4

42.0

23:50

JPY Capital Spending (2Q)

Medium 0.0% -2.1% -3.9%

23:50

JPY Capital Spending excl Software (2Q)

Medium 1.4% -3.8% -5.2%

23:50

JPY Company Profits (2Q)

Low 24.0%

6.0%

23:50

JPY Company Sales (2Q)

Low -0.5%

-5.8%

Mon Sep 2

00:00

AUD RPData/Rismark House Px (AUG)

Low 0.5%

1.6%

00:30

AUD TD Securities Inflation (MoM) (AUG)

Low 0.1%

0.5%

00:30

AUD TD Securities Inflation (YoY) (AUG)

Low 2.1%

2.7%

01:30

AUD Building Approvals (MoM) (JUL)

Low 10.8% 4.0% -6.3%

01:30

AUD Building Approvals (YoY) (JUL)

Low 28.3% 20.0% -11.8%

01:30

AUD Company Operating Profit (QoQ) (2Q)

Low -0.8% 0.9% 3.5%

01:30

AUD Inventories (2Q) Low 0.2% 0.1% -0.5%

01:45

CNY HSBC/Markit Manufacturing PMI (AUG)

Medium 50.1 50.2 47.7

05:00

JPY Vehicle Sales (YoY) (AUG)

Low -6.4%

-13.5%

06:30

AUD RBA Commodity Index (AUG)

Low 94.3

91.8

06:30

AUD RBA Commodity Index SDR (YoY) (AUG)

Low -7.3%

9.7%

07:30

CHF PMI Manufacturing (AUG)

Low 54.6 56.0 57.4

07:45

EUR Italian Purchasing

Manager Index Manufacturing (AUG)

Low 51.3 50.8 50.4

ECONOMIC CALLENDER

07:50

EUR French Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (AUG F)

Low 49.7 49.7 49.7

07:55

EUR German Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (AUG F)

Medium 51.8 52.0 52.0

08:00

EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (AUG F)

Medium 51.4 51.3 51.3

08:30

GBP BoE Publishes Data on Funding for Lending

Medium

08:30

GBP Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (AUG)

Medium 57.2 55.0 54.8

09:00

EUR Schaeuble Briefs on Greek Aid Package 3

Medium

11:20

EUR ECB's Coeure Speaks in Berlin on OMT Proram

Low

11:30

GBP BoE Governor Mark Carney Press Briefing Before G20 Summit

Medium

23:01

GBP BRC Sales Like-For-Like (YoY) (AUG)

Low

2.4% 2.2%

23:50

JPY Monetary Base (YoY) (AUG)

Medium

38%

23:50

JPY Monetary Base End of period (AUG)

Low

¥173.3T

Tue Sep 3

GBP Halifax House Price (3MoY) (AUG)

Low

5.6% 4.6%

GBP Halifax Plc House Prices s.a. (MoM) (AUG)

Low

0.8% 0.9%

01:00

CNY Non-manufacturing PMI (AUG)

Medium

54.1

01:00

NZD ANZ Commodity Price (AUG)

Low

0.6%

01:30

AUD Current Account Balance (Australian Dollar) (2Q)

Medium

-8.5B -8.5B

01:30

AUD Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) (JUL)

Medium

0.4% 0.0%

01:30

AUD Net Exports of GDP (2Q)

Low

0.1 1

01:30

JPY Labor Cash Earnings (YoY) (JUL)

Low

0.6%

04:30 LIVE

AUD Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision (SEP 3)

High

2.5% 2.5%

05:45

CHF Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (2Q)

High

1.7% 1.2%

05:45

CHF Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (2Q)

Medium

0.3% 0.6%

08:30

GBP Purchasing Manager Index Construction (AUG)

Medium

56.9 57.0

09:00

EUR Euro-Zone Producer Price Index (MoM) (JUL)

Low

0.1% 0.0%

09:00

EUR Euro-Zone Producer Price Index (YoY) (JUL)

Low

0.1% 0.3%

12:58

USD Markit US PMI Final (AUG)

Medium

54.0

14:00

USD ISM Manufacturing (AUG)

High

54 55.4

14:00

USD Construction Spending (MoM) (JUL)

Medium

0.3% -0.6%

14:00

USD ISM Prices Paid (AUG)

Medium

51.2 49

14:00

USD IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (SEP)

Low

46 45.1

21:00

USD EIA Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (2Q)

Low

22:45

NZD Value of All Buildings s.a. (QoQ) (AUG)

Low

5.8%

23:01

GBP BRC Shop Price Index (YoY) (AUG)

Low

-0.5%

23:30

AUD AiG Performance of Service Index (AUG)

Medium

39.4

Wed

Sep 4 01:30 LIVE

AUD Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (2Q)

High

0.6% 0.6%

01:30 LIVE

AUD Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (2Q)

High

2.5% 2.5%

01:45

CNY HSBC/Markit Services PMI (AUG)

Medium

51.3

07:45

EUR Italian Purchasing Manager Index Services (AUG)

Low

48.7

07:50

EUR French Purchasing Manager Index Services (AUG F)

Low

47.7 47.7

07:55

EUR German Purchasing Manager Index Services (AUG F)

Medium

52.4 52.4

08:00

EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Composite (AUG F)

Medium

51.7 51.7

08:00

EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Services (AUG F)

Medium

51 51

08:30

GBP Purchasing Manager Index Services (AUG)

Medium

59 60.2

08:30

GBP Official Reserves (Changes) (AUG)

Low

$1672M

09:00

EUR Euro-Zone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) (2Q P)

High

0.3% 0.3%

09:00

EUR Euro-Zone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY) (2Q P)

High

-0.7% -0.7%

09:00

EUR Euro-Zone Retail Sales (YoY) (JUL)

Medium

-0.3% -0.9%

09:00

EUR Euro-Zone Government Expenditure (QoQ) (2Q P)

Low

-0.1%

09:00

EUR Euro-Zone Gross Fixed Capital (QoQ) (2Q P)

Low

-1.6%

09:00

EUR Euro-Zone Household Consumption (QoQ) (2Q P)

Low

0.1%

09:00

EUR Euro-Zone Retail Sales (MoM) (JUL)

Low

0.4% -0.5%

11:00

USD MBA Mortgage Applications (AUG 30)

Low

-2.5%

11:30

USD Challenger Job Cuts (YoY) (AUG)

Low

2.3%

12:30

USD Trade Balance (JUL)

Medium

-$38.6B -$34.2B

12:30

CAD International Merchandise Trade (Canadian dollar) (JUL)

Low

-0.40B -0.47B

13:45

USD ISM New York (AUG)

Low

67.8

14:00

CAD Bank of Canada Rate Decision (SEP 4)

High

1.00% 1.00%

16:30

USD Fed's Williams Speaks on Monetary Policy in Oregon

Low

18:00

USD US Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book

High

21:00

USD Domestic Vehicle Sales (AUG)

Low

12.20M 12.09M

21:00

USD Total Vehicle Sales (AUG)

Low

15.80M 15.60M

Thu Sep 5

JPY BOJ 2014 Monetary Base Target (SEP 5)

High

¥270T

JPY Bank of Japan Rate Decision (SEP 5)

High

00:00

USD Fed's Kocherlakota Speaks in Wisconsin

Low

01:30

AUD Trade Balance (Australian dollar) (JUL)

Medium

100M 602M

10:00

EUR German Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) (JUL)

Medium

2.7% 4.3%

10:00

EUR German Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) (JUL)

Low

-1.0% 3.8%

11:00 LIVE

GBP Bank of England Rate Decision (SEP 5)

High

0.5% 0.5%

11:00 LIVE

GBP BoE Asset Purchase Target (SEP)

High

375B 375B

11:45 LIVE

EUR European Central Bank Rate Decision (SEP 5)

High

0.5% 0.5%

11:45 LIVE

EUR ECB Deposit Facility Rate (SEP 5)

Medium

0.0% 0.0%

12:15

USD ADP Employment Change (AUG)

Medium

180K 200K

12:30

USD Initial Jobless Claims (AUG 31)

Medium

330K 331K

12:30

USD Continuing Claims (AUG 24)

Low

2989K

12:30

USD Non-Farm Productivity (2Q F)

Low

1.5% 0.9%

12:30

USD Unit Labor Costs (2Q F)

Low

1.0% 1.4%

13:00

USD Fed's Kocherlakota Speaks in Wisconsin

Low

14:00

USD Factory Orders (JUL)

Medium

-3.50% 1.50%

14:00

USD ISM Non-Manufacutring Composite (AUG)

Medium

55 56

15:00

USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (AUG 30)

Low

2986K

15:00

USD DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (AUG 30)

Low

-316K

15:00

USD DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (AUG 30)

Low

-587K

23:30

AUD AiG Performance of Construction Index (AUG)

Medium

44.1

23:50

JPY Official Reserve Assets (AUG)

Low

$1254.0B

Fri

Sep 6

GBP New Car Registrations (YoY) (AUG)

Low

12.7%

05:00

JPY Bank of Japan's Monthly Economic Report for September

Medium

05:00

JPY Coincident Index (JUL P)

Medium

106.9 105.5

05:00

JPY Leading Index (JUL P)

Medium

107.9 107.2

06:00

EUR German Trade Balance (euros) (JUL)

Medium

16.3B 16.9B

06:00

EUR German Current Account (euros) (JUL)

Low

14.0B 17.3B

06:00

EUR German Exports s.a. (MoM) (JUL)

Low

0.8% 0.6%

06:00

EUR German Imports s.a. (MoM) (JUL)

Low

0.7% -0.8%

06:00

EUR German Labor Costs s.a. (QoQ) (2Q)

Low

1.1%

06:00

EUR German Labor Costs w.d.a. (YoY) (2Q)

Low

3.9%

06:30

AUD Foreign Reserves (Australian dollar) (AUG)

Low

A$55.5B

07:00

CHF Foreign Currency Reserves (AUG)

Low

434.9B

07:15

CHF CPI EU Harmonized (YoY) (AUG)

Medium

0.5%

07:15

CHF Consumer Price Index (YoY) (AUG)

Medium

0.0% 0.0%

07:15

CHF Industrial Production (YoY) (2Q)

Medium

3.0%

07:15

CHF CPI EU Harmonized (MoM) (AUG)

Low

0.0%

07:15

CHF Consumer Price Index (MoM) (AUG)

Low

0.0% -0.4%

08:30

GBP BoE/GfK Inflation Next 12 Mths (AUG)

Medium

3.6%

08:30

GBP Industrial Production (YoY) (JUL)

Medium

-1.7% 1.2%

08:30

GBP Manufacturing Production (YoY) (JUL)

Medium

-0.7% 2.0%

08:30

GBP Total Trade Balance (Pounds) (JUL)

Medium

-£1700 -£1548

08:30

GBP Industrial Production (MoM) (JUL)

Low

0.0% 1.1%

08:30

GBP Manufacturing Production (MoM) (JUL)

Low

0.3% 1.9%

08:30

GBP Trade Balance Non EU (Pounds) (JUL)

Low

-£2950 -£2646

08:30

GBP Visible Trade Balance (Pounds) (JUL)

Low

-£8200 -£8082

10:00

EUR German Industrial Production n.s.a. and w.d.a. (YoY) (JUL)

Medium

0.6% 2.0%

10:00

EUR German Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) (JUL)

Low

-0.5% 2.4%

12:00

USD Fed's Evans Speaks in South Carolina

Low

12:30

CAD Net Change in Employment (AUG)

High

30.0K -39.4K

12:30

CAD Unemployment Rate (AUG)

High

7.2% 7.2%

12:30 LIVE

USD Change in Non-farm Payrolls (AUG)

High

180K 162K

12:30 LIVE

USD Unemployment Rate (AUG)

High

7.4% 7.4%

12:30

CAD Full Time Employment Change (AUG)

Medium

-18.3

12:30

USD Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (AUG)

Medium

2.0% 1.9%

12:30

USD Change in Private Payrolls (AUG)

Medium

175K 161K

12:30

USD Labor Force Participation Rate (AUG)

Medium

63.4%

12:30

USD Underemployment Rate (AUG)

Medium

14.0%

12:30

CAD Part Time Employment Change (AUG)

Low

-21.2

12:30

CAD Participation Rate (AUG)

Low

66.5

12:30

USD Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (AUG)

Low

0.2% -0.1%

12:30

USD Average Weekly Hours All Employees (AUG)

Low

34.5 34.4

12:30

USD Change in Household Employment (AUG)

Low

227K

12:30

USD Change in Manufacturing Payrolls (AUG)

Low

5K 6K

12:30

USD Two-Month Payroll Net Revision (AUG)

Low

14:00

GBP NIESR Gross Domestic Product Estimate (AUG)

High

0.7%

14:00

CAD Ivey Purchasing Managers Index s.a. (AUG)

Medium

54 48.4

17:30

USD Fed's George Speaks on the Economy in Nebraska

Low

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