DAILY I FOREX REPORT 5

TH

MARCH 2013

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EUR/USD And USD/JPY In Focus With Sequester, ECB, NFPs, BoJ Ahead

USD to Consolidate Ahead of NFPs, JPY Outlook Weighed by BoJ

Dollar At Trend Resistance, S&P 500 Still Looking Vulnerable

Pounds Falls Back to 1.50 on a 3-Year Low Construction PMI

UK construction activity has declined at the fastest pace since October 2009 according to

Markit’s Purchasing Managers’ Index. The PMI for construction fell to 46.8 in February, worse than the expected 49.0 index result and down from 48.7 in January. A PMI below 50.0 indicates a decline in sector activity.

The tone from the Markit release was not positive when talking about the construction sector, which has now shown 4 straight months of declining activity. Markit Senior Economist Tim Moore said, “This is

undoubtedly a dismal set of data for the UKconstruction sector, especially the sharp falls in commercial building work and civil engineeringactivity.”

TRADING TIPS

SELL EURUSD BELOW

1.2980 tgs

1.2960/1.2940 sl 1.3010

SELL USDJPY BELOW

93.20 tgt 93.00/92.80

SL 93.50

SELL GBPUSD BELOW

1.5000 tgt

1.4980/1.4960 SL

1.5030

HEADLINES

HOURLY EURUSD CHART

ANALYSIS

OPEN: 1.3015

HIGH: 1.3029

LOW: 1.2982

CLOSE: 1.2994

EURUSD LOOKS DOWNWARD

TREND : BEARISH

STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE

MACD =>-.000(BEARISH SIGNAL)

RSI => 39(BEARISH SIGNAL)

HOURLY EURUSD CHART

HOURLY USDJPY CHART

ANALYSIS

OPEN: 93.54

HIGH: 93.73

LOW: 93.28

CLOSE: 93.56

USDJPY LOOKS DOWNWARD

TREND: BEARISH

STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE

MACD => -0.02( BEARISH SIGNAL)

RSI =>60(BEARISH SIGNAL)

HOURLY USDJPY CHART

HOURLY GBPUSD CHART

ANALYSIS

OPEN: 1.5032

HIGH: 1.5058

LOW: 1.4999

CLOSE: 1.5039

GBPUSD LOOKS DOWNWARD

TREND: BULLISH

STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE

MACD => .005( BEARISH SIGNAL)

RSI => 45(BEARIISH SIGNAL)

HOURLY GBPUSD CHART

HOURLY EURGBP CHART

ANALYSIS

OPEN: 0.8658

HIGH: 0.8664

LOW: 0.8639

CLOSE: 0.8641

EURGBP LOOKS DOWNWARDS

TREND: BEARISH

STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE

MACD =>-.003(BEARISH SIGNAL)

RSI =>44(BEARISH SIGNAL)

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HOURLY EURGBP CHART

HOURLY USDINDEX CHART

ANALYSIS

OPEN: 82.2970

HIGH: 82.4650

LOW: 82.2300

CLOSE: 82.4020

USDINDEX LOOKS UPWARD

TREND: BULLISH

STRATEGY: BUY ON DEEPS

MACD =>0.79(BULLISH SIGNAL)

RSI =>61(BULLISH SIGNAL)

Date Time Currency Event Importance Actual Forecast Previous Notes

Mon Mar 4

GBP BoE/GfK Inflation Next 12 Mths (FEB)

Medium

3.5%

00:00

NZD ANZ Commodity Price (FEB)

Low 1.0%

0.3%

00:01

GBP Lloyds Business Barometer (FEB)

Low 13

15

00:01

GBP Hometrack Housing Survey (YoY) (FEB)

Low -0.1%

-0.3%

00:01

GBP Hometrack Housing Survey (MoM) (FEB)

Low 0.1%

0.0%

00:30

JPY Confirmation Hearing for BoJ Governor Nominee Kuroda

Medium

00:30

AUD Inventories (4Q) Low 0.2% 0.6% 1.2%

00:30

AUD Company Operating

Profit (QoQ) (4Q) Low -1.0% -1.0% -2.7%

00:30

AUD Building Approvals (YoY) (JAN)

Low 9.9% 8.1% 12.4%

00:30

AUD Building Approvals (MoM) (JAN)

Low -2.4% 2.8% -1.7%

00:30

AUD ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) (FEB)

Low 3.0%

0.6%

09:30

GBP Purchasing Manager Index Construction (FEB)

Medium 46.8 49 48.7

09:30

EUR Euro-Zone Sentix Investor Confidence (MAR)

Medium -10.6 -4.3 -3.9

10:00

EUR Euro-Zone Producer Price Index (YoY) (JAN)

High 1.9% 1.9% 2.1%

10:00

EUR Euro-Zone Producer Price Index (MoM) (JAN)

Medium 0.6% 0.5% -0.2%

14:00

EUR Euro-Area Finance Ministers Meet in Brussels

High

14:45

USD ISM New York (FEB) Low

56.7

ECONOMIC CALENDER

22:30

AUD AiG Performance of Service Index (FEB)

Medium

45.3

Tue

Mar 5

GBP Halifax Plc House Prices s.a. (MoM) (FEB)

Low

0.2% -0.2%

GBP Halifax House Price (3MoY) (FEB)

Low

1.7% 1.3%

00:01

GBP BRC Sales Like-For-Like YoY (FEB)

Low

1.0% 1.9%

00:30

AUD Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) (JAN)

Medium

0.4% -0.2%

00:30

AUD Current Account Balance (Australian Dollar) (4Q)

Medium

-15300M -14900M

00:30

AUD Australia Net Exports of GDP (4Q)

Low

0.5 0.1

01:30

JPY Labor Cash Earnings (YoY) (JAN)

Medium

-1.7%

01:45

HSBC Services PMI (FEB) Medium

54

03:30

AUD Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision (MAR 5)

High

3.00% 3.00%

08:45

EUR Italian Purchasing Manager Index Services (FEB)

Medium

43.5 43.9

08:50

EUR French Purchasing Manager Index Services (FEB F)

Medium

42.7 42.7

08:55

EUR German Purchasing Manager Index Services (FEB F)

Medium

54.1 54.1

09:00

EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing

Manager Index Services (FEB F)

Medium

47.3 47.3

09:00

EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Composite (FEB F)

Medium

47.3 47.3

09:30

GBP Purchasing Manager

Index Services (FEB) Medium

51 51.5

09:30

GBP Official Reserves (Changes) (FEB)

Low

$565M

10:00

EUR Euro-Zone Retail Sales (YoY) (JAN)

High

-2.9% -3.6%

10:00

EUR Euro-Zone Retail

Sales (MoM) (JAN) Medium

0.3% -0.9%

15:00

USD ISM Non-Manufacutring Composite (FEB)

Medium

55 55.2

15:00

USD IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (MAR)

Low

47.2 47.3

21:45

NZD Value of All Buildings SA (4Q)

Low

3.0% 9.6%

Wed Mar 6

JPY Bankruptcies (YoY) (FEB)

Medium

-5.2%

GBP New Car Registrations (YoY) (FEB)

Low

11.5%

00:01

GBP BRC Shop Price Index (YoY) (FEB)

Low

0.6%

00:30

AUD Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (4Q)

High

3.0% 3.1%

00:30

AUD Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (4Q)

High

0.6% 0.5%

10:00

EUR Euro-Zone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY) (4Q P)

High

-0.9% -0.9%

10:00

EUR Euro-Zone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) (4Q P)

High

-0.6% -0.6%

10:00

EUR Euro-Zone Household Consumption (QoQ) (4Q P)

Medium

0.0%

10:00

EUR Euro-Zone Gross Fixed Capital (QoQ) (4Q P)

Medium

-0.7%

10:00

EUR Euro-Zone Government Expenditure (QoQ) (4Q P)

Low

-0.2%

12:00

USD MBA Mortgage Applications (MAR 1)

Low

-3.8%

13:15

USD ADP Employment Change (FEB)

Medium

168K 192K

13:15

USD Fed's Plosser Speaks on Economic Outlook in Lancaster, PA

Low

15:00

CAD Bank of Canada Rate

Decision (MAR 6) High

1.00% 1.00%

15:00

USD Factory Orders (JAN) Medium

-2.2% 1.8%

15:00

Ivey Purchasing Managers Index SA (FEB)

Medium

58.9

15:30

USD DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (MAR 1)

Low

-1857K

15:30

USD DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (MAR 1)

Low

557K

15:30

USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (MAR 1)

Low

1130K

15:30

USD DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory (MAR 1)

Low

-75K

19:00

USD U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book

Medium

22:30

AUD AiG Performance of

Construction Index (FEB) Medium

36.2

23:00

NZD QV House Prices (YoY) (FEB)

Low

6.2%

23:50

JPY Official Reserve Assets (FEB)

Low

$1267.3B

23:50

JPY Japan Buying Foreign Stocks (Yen) (MAR 1)

Low

-¥106.4B

23:50

JPY Japan Buying Foreign Bonds (Yen) (MAR 1)

Low

-¥665.4B

23:50

JPY Foreign Buying Japan Stocks (Yen) (MAR 1)

Low

¥190.4B

23:50

JPY Foreign Buying Japan Bonds (Yen) (MAR 1)

Low

-¥82.6B

Thu Mar 7

JPY Bank of Japan Rate Decision (MAR 7)

High

0.10% 0.10%

EUR German Wholesale Price Index (YoY) (FEB)

Low

2.3%

EUR German Wholesale Price Index (MoM) (FEB)

Low

0.3%

00:30

AUD Trade Balance (Australian dollar) (JAN)

Medium

-427M

05:00

JPY Leading Index (JAN P) (JAN P)

Medium

93.4

05:00

JPY Coincident Index (JAN P) (JAN P)

Low

92.6

05:30

AUD Foreign Reserves

(Australian dollar) (FEB) Low

A$46.5B

06:30

EUR French Mainland Unemployment Change (4Q)

Medium

29K

06:30

EUR French ILO Unemployment Rate (4Q)

Medium

10.3%

06:30

EUR French ILO Mainland Unemployment Rate (4Q)

Medium

9.9%

06:30

CHF SNB Final Result for 2012

Medium

06:45

CHF Unemployment Rate

s.a. (FEB) Medium

3.1% 3.1%

06:45

CHF Unemployment Rate (FEB)

Medium

3.4% 3.4%

07:45

EUR French Trade Balance (euros) (JAN)

Low

-4700M -5349M

08:00

CHF Foreign Currency Reserves (FEB)

Low

-4700M 427.0B

09:00

EUR Italian Producer Price Index (YoY) (JAN)

Low

2.0%

09:00

EUR Italian Producer Price Index (MoM) (JAN)

Low

-0.2%

11:00

EUR German Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) (JAN)

Medium

1.6% -1.8%

11:00

EUR German Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) (JAN)

Low

0.6% 0.8%

12:00

GBP Bank of England Rate Decision (MAR 7)

High

0.50% 0.50%

12:00

GBP BOE Asset Purchase Target (MAR)

High

375B 375B

12:30

USD RBC Consumer Outlook Index (MAR)

Low

49.5

12:30

USD Challenger Job Cuts (YoY) (FEB)

Low

-24.4%

12:45

EUR European Central Bank Rate Decision (MAR 7)

High

0.8% 0.75%

12:45

EUR ECB Deposit Facility Rate (MAR 7)

Medium

0.00% 0.0%

13:30

USD Trade Balance (JAN) Medium

-$43.0B -$38.5B

13:30

USD Initial Jobless Claims (MAR 3)

Medium

355K 344K

13:30

USD Unit Labor Costs (4Q F)

Low

4.3% 4.5%

13:30

USD Non-Farm Productivity (4Q F)

Low

-1.5% -2.0%

13:30

USD Continuing Claims (FEB 24)

Low

3110K 3074K

13:30

CAD International Merchandise Trade (Canadian dollar) (JAN)

Low

-0.55B -0.90B

13:30

CAD Building Permits (MoM) (JAN)

Low

-11.2%

15:30

USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change (MAR 1)

Low

-171

17:00

USD Household Change in Net Worth (4Q)

Low

$1722B

20:00

USD Consumer Credit (JAN)

Medium

$14.500B $14.595B

21:45

NZD Manufacturing Activity

(4Q) Medium

1.6%

21:45

NZD Manufacturing Activity Volume SA (QoQ) (4Q)

Low

2.6%

23:50

JPY Nominal Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (4Q F)

High

-0.4%

23:50

JPY Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (4Q F)

High

-0.1%

23:50

JPY Gross Domestic Product Annualized (4Q F)

High

-0.4%

23:50

JPY Trade Balance - BOP Basis (Yen) (JAN)

Medium

-¥1512.3B -¥567.6B

23:50

JPY Current Account Total (Yen) (JAN)

Low

-¥626.0B -¥264.1B

23:50

JPY Current Account Balance (YoY) (JAN)

Low

34.2% -199.4%

23:50

JPY Bank Lending incl Trusts (YoY) (FEB)

Low

23:50

JPY Bank Lending Banks ex-Trust (FEB)

Low

1.6%

23:50

JPY Adjusted Current Account Total (Yen) (JAN)

Low

¥112.2B ¥98.1B

23:50

JPY Gross Domestic Product Deflator (YoY) (4Q F)

Low

-0.6%

Fri Mar 8

JPY Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook (FEB)

Medium

56.5

JPY Eco Watchers Survey: Current (FEB)

Medium

49.5

EUR Bank of France Business Sentiment (FEB)

Medium

96 95

CNY Trade Balance (USD) (FEB)

Medium

-$8.85B $29.15B

CNY Imports (YoY) (FEB) Low

-8.2% 28.8%

CNY Exports (YoY) (FEB) Low

7.6% 25.0%

07:45

EUR French Central Government Balance (euros) (JAN)

Low

-87.2B

08:15

CHF Consumer Price Index (YoY) (FEB)

Medium

-0.30% -0.3%

08:15

CHF CPI - EU Harmonised (YoY) (FEB)

Medium

-0.1%

08:15

CHF Consumer Price Index (MoM) (FEB)

Low

0.30% -0.3%

08:15

CHF CPI - EU Harmonised (MoM) (FEB)

Low

-0.5%

11:00

EUR German Industrial

Production n.s.a. and w.d.a. (YoY) (JAN)

Medium

-1.2% -1.1%

11:00

EUR German Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) (JAN)

Low

0.4% 0.3%

13:15

CAD Housing Starts (FEB) Medium

172.0K 160.6K

13:30

USD Unemployment Rate (FEB)

High

7.9% 7.9%

13:30

USD Change in Non-farm Payrolls (FEB)

High

155K 157K

13:30

CAD Unemployment Rate

(FEB) High

7.1% 7.0%

13:30

CAD Net Change in Employment (FEB)

High

7.5K -21.9K

13:30

USD Change in Private Payrolls (FEB)

Medium

167K 166K

13:30

USD Average Hourly Earning All Employees (YoY) (FEB)

Medium

2.1% 2.1%

13:30

CAD Participation Rate (FEB)

Medium

66.6

13:30

CAD Part Time Employment Change (FEB)

Medium

-1.4

13:30

CAD Full Time Employment Change (FEB)

Medium

-20.6

13:30

Average Hourly Earning All Employees (MoM) (FEB)

Low

0.2% 0.20%

13:30

USD Underemployment Rate (U6) (FEB)

Low

14.4%

13:30

USD Change in Manufacturing Payrolls (FEB)

Low

10K 4K

13:30

USD Change in Household Employment (FEB)

Low

17

13:30

USD Average Weekly Hours All Employees (FEB)

Low

3440.0% 34.4

13:30

CAD Labor Productivity (QoQ) (4Q)

Low

-0.5%

15:00

USD Wholesale Inventories (JAN)

Low

0.3% -0.1%

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