daily economic outlook - assetlineassetline.lk/research/uploads/snapshots/daily economic...page 2...

DAILY ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 21st May 2015

Tel: +94 11 4700100 www.assetline.lk

Click to edit Master title style

Snapshot - Monetary Sector

21-May-2015 20-May-2015 Chg.

Call 6.11 6.12

Repo 5.79 5.79 -

Over Night 6.12 6.12 -

Market

Liquidity(Bn.) 122.5 123.5

Daily Money Market Movement Daily Forex Movement

21-May-2015 20-May-2015 Chg.

01/04/2016 6.30% 6.40%

15/05/2017 6.75% 6.80%

15/08/2018 7.70% 7.75%

01/07/2019 8.03% 8.03% -

01/05/2021 8.35% 8.35% -

T-Bond selling rates T-Bill Rate Movement in Auction

Page 11 Page 10

Page 7

6.08

6.19

6.31

5.80

6.00

6.20

6.40

6.60

%

91-day 182-days 365-days

5.6

5.7

5.8

5.9

6.0

6.1

6.2

112114116118120122124126128

15.05.2015 18.05.2015 19.05.2015 20.05.2015 21.05.2015

%

LKR

Bn

Market Liquidity Call Repo Over Night

21-May-2015 20-May-2015 Chg.

USD 136.12 136.06

GBP 212.42 211.82

EUR 152.18 152.39

JPY 1.13 1.10

Against USD 21-May-2015 20-May-2015 Chg.

YUAN 6.20 6.20 -

INR 63.68 63.60

BDT 77.78 77.88

VND 21810 21810 -

USD LKR Premium 19-May-2015 18-May-2015 Chg.

1 Month 60/62 60/62 -

3 Months 160/170 160/170 -

6 Months 325/335 320/335

1 Year 640/660 640/660 -


1,220.5 1,223.5

1,214.3 1,210.5 1,208.7

1200

1210

1220

1230

15-05-2015 18-05-2015 19-05-2015 20-05-2015 21-05-2015

Gold – USD/Ounce

6,355.8 6,382.8

6,269.8

6,207.5 6,239.0

6100

6200

6300

6400

15-05-2015 18-05-2015 19-05-2015 20-05-2015 21-05-2015

Copper USD/Ton

66.49 67.07

65.62 65.11

65.73

64

66

68

15-05-2015 18-05-2015 19-05-2015 20-05-2015 21-05-2015

Brent – USD/barrel

1,812.8 1,795.1

1,749.5 1,748.8 1,735.5

1650

1700

1750

1800

1850

15-05-2015 18-05-2015 19-05-2015 20-05-2015 21-05-2015

Aluminium USD/Ton

Page 6

Page 7

Page 7

Page 7

Page 6 60.19 60.1

58.95 58.93

59.7

58

59

59

60

60

61

15-05-2015 18-05-2015 19-05-2015 20-05-2015 21-05-2015

WTI - USD/barrel

408.10 411.57

401.19 393.85 394.41

380

390

400

410

420

08-04-2015 22-04-2015 28-04-2015 06-05-2015 13-05-2015

All elevation Tea Auction Average Price –LKR/Kg

53.57 53.76 53.68 53.39

55.17

52

53

54

55

56

Week 13 Week 14 Week 15 Week 16 Week 17

Weekly Average Coconut Price – LKR/Kg

265 265 272.5 279

50

100

150

200

250

300

28-04-2015 30-04-2015 06-05-2015 08-05-2015 12-05-2015

Rubber Price - Latex Crepe No.1 – LKR/Kg

Snapshot – Commodities


Local News Bulletin for Day

Hayleys records 32% increase in year end PAT

Hayleys PLC closed its financial year ending March 2014/15 on a high, consolidating the growth momentum

generated over past years. Read More

CB seen keeping rates steady after surprise cut

Sri Lanka’s central bank is expected to keep its key policy interest rates unchanged at record lows on Friday, a

Reuters poll showed.The central bank in April surprised markets with a 50 basis point cut to boost economic

growth. Until April, rates were steady for 14 months. Read More

Secondary market bond yields broadly steady ahead of policy announcement

The yields in the secondary bond markets were seen closing the day broadly steady yesterday, subsequent to

changing hands within a thin range on the back of considerable volumes. Read More

Fitch affirms Sanasa Development Bank at ‘BB+’/Stable

Fitch Ratings Lanka has affirmed Sanasa Development Bank PLC’s (SDB) National Long-Term Rating at

‘BB+(lka)’. The Outlook is Stable. Read More

Sri Lanka parliament to debate Treasury bond probe report

Sri Lanka's parliamentary speaker has given the nod to debate a report on a report on a controversial auction of

Treasury bonds that benefitted a firm connected to the son-in-law of the island's central bank governor. Read More

http://www.ft.lk/article/423889/Hayleys-records-32--increase-in-year-end-PAT



http://www.economynext.com/Check__digital_footprint__of_top_Sri_Lanka_central_bank_officials__bond_probe_report-3-1859-10.html

http://www.ft.lk/article/423877/CB-seen-keeping-rates-steady--after-surprise-cut



http://www.ft.lk/article/423033/Janashakthi-Insurance--Plc-records-impressive-1Q

http://www.ft.lk/article/423033/Janashakthi-Insurance--Plc-records-impressive-1Q

http://www.ft.lk/article/423701/Secondary-market-bond-yields-broadly-steady-ahead-of-policy-announcement



http://www.ft.lk/article/423709/Fitch-affirms-Sanasa-Development-Bank-at-%E2%80%98BB-%E2%80%99/Stable



http://www.economynext.com/Sri_Lanka_parliament_to_debate_Treasury_bond_probe_report-3-1886-10.html



Click to edit Master title style Global Outlook

Global News Bulletin for Day

• GBP gained against USD over robust retail sales which also ease fear over low inflation. According to ta foreign

exchange strategist at BNP Paribus, further signs of strengthening in U.K’s economy would most probably

encourage Bank of England to raise interest rates (Read more).

GBP gains on strong retail data………

• Greece will not be in a position to repay the debt amounting to USD 1.5bn to IMF on 5th June unless foreign

lenders provide more aid (Read more).

Possible default on 5th June…..

Crude oil rebounds….

• Oil price rebound on Thursday on expectation of reducing stock piles with US crude stock falling for the third

consecutive week. Further, the continuing unrest in Iraq fuels concerns over Middle Eastern supplies, while the

Purchasing Managers Index for May revealed tepid improvement in Chinese factory activity.(Read more).

Gold trend modestly…....

• Gold and copper prices trended upwards in Asia over the slight upbeat in China’s factory activity as per HSBC’s

Purchasing Managers Index (Read more).

http://www.wsj.com/articles/euro-rises-slightly-stocks-steady-in-wake-of-fed-minutes-1432194478



http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/05/20/us-eurozone-greece-imf-idUSKBN0O50EJ20150520



http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/05/21/us-markets-oil-idUSKBN0O604B20150521



http://www.nasdaq.com/article/copper-and-gold-prices-higher-after-slight-uptick-in-hsbc-china-pmi-cm479078




US T-Bills

US T-Bonds

Source: treasuries.gov

US Treasuries

0.02 0.01 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02

0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.08 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.08

0.25 0.24 0.25 0.24 0.23 0.25 0.25 0.24 0.23 0.23 0.22 0.23 0.23

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

04/05/2015 06/05/2015 08/05/2015 12/05/2015 14/05/2015 18/05/2015 20/05/2015

%

3 Months 6 Months 1 Year

0.96 1.00 1.03 1.02 0.96 1.02 1.00 0.97 0.91 0.90 0.95 1.01 0.98

1.51 1.54 1.58 1.55 1.50 1.59 1.58 1.57 1.51 1.46 1.54 1.60 1.57

2.16 2.19 2.25 2.18 2.16 2.28 2.28 2.27 2.23 2.14 2.23 2.27 2.26

2.88 2.90 2.98 2.90 2.90 3.03 3.02 3.07 3.03 2.93 3.02 3.05 3.06

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

04/05/2015 06/05/2015 08/05/2015 12/05/2015 14/05/2015 18/05/2015 20/05/2015

%

3 Years 5 Years 10 Years 30 Years


114.94

49.94

65.73

106.95

45.26

59.7

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

USD

/Bar

rel

Brent Oil WTI

*Latest Figures as at 21st May 2015 Source: Investing.com

Violence in Yemen

Creates concern over

Middle East supplies

Output from OPEC

producers remain

strong

back

Brent Oil and West Texas Intermediate (WTI)

Fall in US Stock

piles for the third

straight week


*Latest Figures as at 21st May 2015 Source: Investing.com

back

7,150.5

6,239.0

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15

USD

/To

n

Copper

2,081.8

1,903.3 1,735.5

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15

USD

/TO

n

Aluminium

65.34

60.49

64.57

56

58

60

62

64

66

68

70

2-Feb-15 2-Mar-15 2-Apr-15 2-May-15

USD

/Po

un

d

Cotton

1,192.0

1,208.7

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

3-Jan-2012 3-Jan-2013 3-Jan-2014 3-Jan-2015

USD

/Ou

nce

Gold

HSBC’s PMI reveal slight upbeat in Chinese factory

activity

Better than expected Chinese

factory activity assist gains

Cotton slumped as wet weather in

Texas expected to improve yield

Copper, Cotton, Gold and Aluminium

Tax removal from exports in China lead to a surge in

aluminium supplies


*Latest Figures as at 21st May 2015 Source: CBSL

back

6.08

6.19

6.31

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15

%

91 days 182 days 364 days

Treasury Bill Rates

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15

LKR

Bn

Bids Received Amount Accepted Accepted/Received

Click to edit Master title style 6.11

5.79

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14%

SLIBOR (1Month) Call Repo SDFR SLFR

CBSL reduced

policy rates by

50bps

Source: CBSL *Latest Figures as at 21st May 2015

back

Call and Repo Rates Movement

CBSL removed

the restriction on

access to SDF

facility


*Latest Figures as at 21st May 2015

back

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

%

LKR

Bn

Net Liquidity Call Repo SDFR SLFR

Market Liquidity


Source: CBSL *Latest Figures as at 21st May 2015

back

114.8

128.2 131.6 136.12

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1-Jan-2010 1-Jan-2011 1-Jan-2012 1-Jan-2013 1-Jan-2014 1-Jan-2015

LKR

USD

215.2 223.6

212.4

0

50

100

150

200

250


LKR

GBP

169.7 182.6

154.38

152.18

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200


LKR

EUR

1.6988

1.3550 1.1469

1.1303

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0


LKR

JPY

LKR against USD, GBP, EUR & JPY


Source: Investing.com

back

63.58

61.66

63.68

60

60

61

61

62

62

63

63

64

64

65

Indian Rupee

77.48

77.93

77.78

77

77

77

77

78

78

78

78

Bangladeshi Taka…

21,165.0

21,565.0

21810.0

20800

21000

21200

21400

21600

21800

22000

Vietnamese…

6.19

6.27

6.20

6.08

6.10

6.12

6.14

6.16

6.18

6.20

6.22

6.24

6.26

6.28

6.30

Chinese Yuan

Regional Currencies against USD

*Latest Figures as at 21st May 2015


Research Team

Sameera Siyabalape , CFA

(+94) 0774478524

[email protected]

Uthpala Indrawansha

(+94) 0778813099

[email protected]

Prashanthan Jeyavarman

[email protected]

General Manager

Dimantha Kohombanwickramage

(+94) 0773778802

[email protected]

Our Team

Sales Team

Dilshan H Perera

(+94) 0775018604

[email protected]

Kasun Perera

(+94) 0772632584

[email protected]

Nandaguru Ambigaibalan

(+94) 0773544620

[email protected]

Hiranthi wijeratne

[email protected]

Dion Abeyesinghe

Disclaimer : Information collected/analyzed is from sources believed to be reliable and from the Central Bank of Sri Lanka/Government of Sri Lanka. Assetline however does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Opinions and estimates given constitute our judgment as of the date of the material and are subject to change without notice. The reports and presentations given are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The recipient of this report must make their own independent decision regarding any securities or financial instruments mentioned here in. Securities or financial instruments mentioned may not be suitable to all investors.

mailto:[email protected]









Disclaimer

Disclaimer : Information collected/analyzed is from sources believed to be reliable and from the Central Bank of Sri Lanka/Government of Sri Lanka. Assetline however does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Opinions and estimates given constitute our judgment as of the date of the material and are subject to change without notice. The reports and presentations given are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The recipient of this report must make their own independent decision regarding any securities or financial instruments mentioned here in. Securities or financial instruments mentioned may not be suitable to all investors.

Assetline Capital (Pvt) Limited

120, 120A, Pannipitiya Road, Battaramulla

Tel : 0114700100 Fax : 0114700114

Email : [email protected]

Web : www.assetline.lk / www.dpmco.com


http://www.assetline.lk/

http://www.dpmco.com/

daily economic outlook - assetlineassetline.lk/research/uploads/snapshots/daily economic...page 2...

Documents