daily currency report 2nd jan

7/30/2019 Daily Currency Report 2nd Jan

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Curre ncies Daily Rep oW ednesday | January 02 , 201

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Content

Overview

US Do llar

Euro

GBP

JPY

Economic Indicators

Angel Broking Ltd.

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Research TeamFundamental TeamNalini Rao - Sr. Research Analyst

nal ini [email protected] (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6135

Anish Vy as - Research An [email protected](022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6104

Overv iew:


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Highlights

US law makers could avert the f iscal cl i f f issue of the nation. The

bi l l w as passed in t he Senate yesterd ay wit h 89-8 vo tes casted.

sian markets are t rad ing on a f irm note o n opt im ism that t he US law

m akers might b e able to avert t he f iscal cl i f f issue of the n ation. The US

enate h as passed t he bi l l yesterday. But th e bi l l is now to be passed in

he House of Representat ives. Republ icans who control the house

xpressed apprehension over the deal as i t included tax increases on

o p earners of $620 bi l l ion and only $12 bi l l ion in spending cut s.

US Dol lar Inde x

S Dol lar Index (DX) remained volat i le throughout the day. The index

nded 0.1 percent h igher as the U S law m akers w ere not ab le to st r ike

deal to avert the f iscal cl i f f issue of the nation. This caused r isk

version amongst the g loba l market par t ic ipants and increased the

emand for the low yielding currency that is US Dol lar Index. The US

aw m akers w ere very close to st r ik ing a dea l but to w ards the end o f

h e session they fai led to arr ive on an agreem ent.

S equit ies sett led higher in yesterdays session. Equit ies witnessed

el l ing pressure in the early part of the session but gained thereafter

n hopes that the US lawmakers might be ab le to arr ive upon an

greement to avert the f iscal cl i f f issue of the nation. US law makers

were very near a decision but they could str ike a deal. The index

o uched an intra-day high of 79.96 and closed at 79.87 on M ond ay.

D o lla r / I N Rhe Indian Rupee app reciated 0.6 percent on Tuesday reversing earl ier

osses on account of sel l ing of d ol lars by the exp ort ers. The rup ee also

er ived st rength f rom the po si t ive sent im ents created a f ter the US law

makers agreed upon a deal which might avert the f iscal cl i f f issue of

he nation. But, increase in the current account def ici t restr icted gains

n th e rupee in yesterd ays session. M ost of t he overseas m arkets

emained closed which rest r icted sharp movement in the rupee. The

upee closed at 54.68 after touching an intra-day high of 54.66 on

uesday.

or the current month 2013 FII inf lows totaled at Rs. 871.50 crores t i l lst

January 2013. Whi le year to date basis, net capital inf lows for the

ear 201 3 stoo d at Rs. Rs. 871.50 cror es.

O ut look

rom the intra-day perspective, we expect Indian Rupee to appreciate

ue to f i rm g lobal m arket sent im ents a long w i th w eakness in th e DX.

ustained capital inf lows from the foreign inst i tut ion are also expected

o keep the rupee apprecia ted.

M arket Highl ights (% change) as on January 01, 20

LastPrev .

d ayW o W M o M

NIFTY 5950.9 1.2 1.6 1.2

SENSEX 19580.8 1.4 1.7 1.2

DJIA 13104.14 1.3 -0.3 0.6

S& P 13104.14 1.3 -0.3 0.6

FTSE 1426.2 1.7 0.7 0.71

KOSPI 16273.4 -0.4 -0.4 5.3

BOVESPA 1997.1 0.5 0.8 4.4

NIKKEI 60952.1 8.3 -0.1 7.8

Nym ex Crude(Jan13) - $ / bbl

10395.2 0.7 -0.1 11.7

Comex Gold (Jan13 )- $ / o z

1677.10 1.3 1.1 -2.9

Comex Silver(Jan13 )$ / o z

3037.50 1.5 1.8 -11.6

LM E Copper (3m o n t h ) - $ / t o n n e

7944.25 1.6 1.6 0.5

CRB Inde x(Industrial)

G-Sec -10 yr @7 .8% -Yield

100.65 0.4 0.5 1.0

Source: R

US Dollar (% change) as on January 01, 201

LastPrev .

d ayW o W M o M

Dol lar Index 79.87 0.1 0.2 -0.4

US $ / IN R (Spot) 54.68 0.6 0.6 -0.8

US $ / IN R Dec 12

Futures (N SE)

54.90 54 .99 54 .72 55 .72

US $ / IN R Dec 12Futures (M CX-SX)

54.90 54 .99 54 .72 55 .72

Source:

Technical Chart USD/INR

Source: T

Technical Outloo k val id for January 02, 201

Trend Support Resis

US Dol lar / IN R Jan13(NSE/ M CX-SX)

Sideways 54 .90 /54 .78 55 .15 /


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Euro (% change) as on January 01, 2013

La st Pre v . d a y W o W M o M

Euro /$ (Spot) 1.3204 0.1 0.2 1.7

Euro / IN R (Spot) 72.52 0.0 0.1 -1.9

Euro / IN R Dec 12

Futures (N SE)

72.72 0.00 0.00 1.71

Euro / IN R Dec 12Futures (M CX-SX)

72.7 0.01 0.00 1.72

Source: Re

Technical Chart Euro

Source: Tele

GBP (% change) as on January 01 , 2013

La st Pre v . d a y W o W M o M

$ / GBP (Spot) 1.6243 0.0 0.7 1.5

GBP / IN R (Spot) 88.811 -0.28 0.22 0.99

GBP / IN R Dec 12Futures(NSE)

89.28 0.23 0.24 1.33

G B P / I N R D e c

12 Futures(M CX-SX)

89.28 0.23 0.24 1.33

Source: Re

u r o / I N R

uro gained 0.1 percent due to r ise in the r isk appeti te after US f iscal

i f f issue was passed in the Senate which would help avert the $600

l l ion def ici t and worries of automatic spending cuts and tax hikes. The

olumes in th e g lobal m arkets rem ained lower on the occasion o f Bank

ol iday due to New Year celebrat ion s. The currency touched an intra-

ay high of 1.322 and closed at 1.3204 on Tuesday.

ut look

todays session we expect Euro to apprecia te due to opt imism that

e US f iscal cl i f f deal which was passed in the Senate yesterday might

e passed in the House of Representat ive today. Addit ional ly, weakness

the DX a long w i th favorab le econom ic data f rom the reg ion m ight act

s a supp ort ive facto r for curren cy.

echnical Outloo k val id for January 0 2, 2013

Trend Suppo rt Resistance

ro/ IN R Jan13

SE/ M CX-SX)Up 72.55/72 .35 72 .95 /73 .15

BP / I N R

he Pound remained f lat as the global markets remained closed on the

ccasion of Bank hol iday due to New Year celebrat ions. The currency

u ched an int ra-day high of 1.632 and closed at 1.6243 o n Tuesday.

ut look

todays session, we expect Pound t o t rade w i th upw ard b ias on t he

ack o f f i rm g loba l market sent iments a long wi th hopes that house o f

epresentat ive might approve the f iscal cl i f f agreed upon yesterday by

e Senate. Favorable data from the nation along with weakness in the

X is also expected to supp ort an upside in the cur rency.

echnical Outloo k val id for January 02 , 2013

Trend Support Resistance

BP/ INR Dec 12SE/ M CX-SX)

Up 89.05 /88 .80 89 .45 /89 .60


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JPY (% change) as on January 01 , 2013

La st Pre v d a y W o W M o M

JPY / $ (Spot) 86.67 -0.1 2.3 5.1 1

JPY / IN R (Spot) 0.6314 -0.11 -2.47 -5.00 -8

JPY 1 00 / IN R Nov12Futures (NSE)

63.67 -2.24 -2.24 -4.79 -8

JPY 100 / INR Nov12

Futures (M CX-SX)

63.67 -0.60 -2.25 -4.70 -8

Source:

Technical Chart JPY

Source: Te

Y/ IN R

e Japanese Yen app reciated 0.1 percent in yesterdays session due to

si t ive sent im ents that the Bank o f Japan may adopt fur ther m onetary

sing steps to boo st t he econom y. However the vo lum es remained th in

e to Bank hol iday on the occasion of New Year celebrat ions. The

ren cy touched a high of 86.53 and closed at 86.67 on Tuesday.

t look

t he in t ra-day, w e expect to yen to rem ain range bound as the m arkets

m ain closed on t he observance of 4-day Bank hol iday.

chnical Outloo k val id for Januar y 02, 2013

Trend Support Resistance

/ INR Jan 13E/ M CX-SX)

Up 63.48 /63 .30 63 .90 /64 .11

Econom ic Indicators to be released on Janua ry 02, 201 3

ndicator Countr y Time (IST) Actua l Forecast Previous Im pact

Bank Hol iday JPY Al l day - - - Low

Bank Hol iday CNY All day - - - Low

German Prel im CPI m/ m EUR All Day 0.7% -0.1% M ediu m

Spanish M anufacturing PM I EUR 1:45pm 44.9 45.3 M ediumta l ian M anufactur ing PM I EUR 2:15pm 45.4 45.1 M edium

M anufactur ing PM I GBP 3:00pm 49.2 49.1 High

SM M anufactur ing PM I US 8:30pm 50.2 49.5 High

daily currency report 2nd jan

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