daily agri report june 16 -...

Commodities Daily Report

Agricultural Commodities

Saturday| June 16, 2012

www.angelcommodities.com

Content

News & Market Highlights

Chana

Sugar

Oilseed Complex

Spices Complex

Mentha

Potato

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Market Highlights (% change) as on June 15, 2012 Last Prev. day WoW MoM YoY

Sensex 16950 1.63 1.38 5.74 -7.21 Nifty 5139 1.67 1.39 5.78 -6.27 INR/$ 55.39 -0.57 -0.05 1.92 23.48 Nymex Crude Oil - $/bbl 84.03 0.14 -0.08 -9.46 -13.64 Comex Gold - $/oz 1627 0.53 2.32 5.91 7.39

Source: Reuters

News in brief

Kharif oilseeds sown in 1.72 lakh hectares so far

According to preliminary reports received from fields, sowing of Kharif oilseeds is in progress. Oilseeds have been sown in 1.72 lakh hectares so far. Groundnut has been sown in 88,700 hectares, Sesamum in 52,400 hectares and Sunflower in 20,400 hectares as on 14.6.2012. Andhra Pradesh has reported sowing of groundnut in 36,000 hectares and Tamil Nadu in 21,800 hectares. In Karnataka, 25,000 hectares have been reported under Sesamum cultivation. Sugarcane has been planted in 51.76 lakh hectares as against 49.47 lakh hectares on this date last year. Jute has been sown in 8.03 lakh hectares so far. (Source: PIB)

India monsoon rains 50 pct below average in second week

India's crucial monsoon rains were 50% below average in the week to June 13, the weather office said on Thursday, a second week of scant rain and confirmation the four-month season has got off to a slow start. But crops are not greatly affected by the quantity of rains in these initial stages, with distribution of rainfall in mid-July after the monsoon should cover the entire country more important for their growth. The monsoon rains were 36% below average in the first week, reflecting a delay in the arrival of the seasonal rains over south from the usual June 1 start date. (Source: Reuters)

Monsoon set to enter central and eastern India next week The south-western monsoon is set to enter the eastern and central India by next week due to the likely development of low pressure over north-western part of the Bay of Bengal, India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Friday. This is expected to bring relief to the farming community, which is expected to commence kharif sowing activities. The Met department said, “Conditions would become favourable for further advance of the southwest monsoon to the remaining parts of central Arabian Sea, Konkan and Tamil Nadu, some more parts of interior Maharashtra, interior Karnataka and the Bay of Bengal and also some parts of Andhra Pradesh during the next two days.” (Source: Business Line)

Sugar and coffee bump up as Greece polling looms

Soft commodities closed mostly higher o n Friday as some investors squared positions ahead of the weekend, buying at prices that fell this week due to worries that Greek elections Sunday could roil world financial markets. Raw sugar futures on ICE gained more than 3 percent on short-covering prompted by worries that crop yields in Brazil have been hurt by excessive rains. Arabica coffee recovered after sinking to a two-year low. Central banks from Tokyo to London prepared on Friday for financial turmoil that could follow the Greek elections which may decide the country's future in the euro zone. (Source: Reuters)

US corn entering pollination as weather threatens

Corn plants in the southern and central areas of the United States are beginning to pollinate, or produce grain, a time when cool, wet weather is needed for the crop, but forecasts are calling for high temperatures and little widespread rain. Corn was planted at a record fast and early pace this season, which moved the critical pollination stage ahead two to three weeks in nearly all of the Midwest. Only slight improvement in weather forecasts was noted on Friday for the weekend through next week, although crops in roughly the northern half of the Corn Belt are expected to fare better, an agricultural meteorologist said. Light showers are expected this weekend in the drier areas of the lower U.S. Midwest corn and soybean growing areas which will ease stress on crops, said Andy Karst, meteorologist for World Weather Inc., Kansas City. (Source: Reuters)

US corn drops 3 pct as Greek elections loom

U.S. corn fell over 3% on Friday on liquidation ahead of historic elections in Greece over the weekend that unsettled global markets contributing to risk-aversion. "With this Greek election coming up Sunday a lot of people are leery about holding anything right now, a lot of them just said get me out," a Chicago Board of Trade floor trader said. Corn was led lower by a week's end adjustment of the old-crop July/new-crop December bull spread. The spread started this month at USC 33/bushel premium July, then soared 150% to peak at USC 82 on Thursday. (Source: Reuters)

Potash piles up as India stops buying-Agrium

A dramatic buildup in North American potash inventories is largely due to a lack of sales to India, but the situation will not last long term, the CEO of Agrium Inc AGU.TO AGU.N said on Friday. Stockpiles of potassium chloride - a key crop nutrient more commonly known as potash - climbed last month to 3 million tonnes, up 3.9 percent from April and up 43 percent from the five-year average, according to data released by Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan on Thursday. (Source: Reuters)

Informa raises U.S. corn, soy plantings estimates

Private analytical firm Informa Economics raised its estimate of U.S. 2012 corn plantings to 96.759 million acres (39.2 million hectares), from its previous forecast of 96.124 million, trade sources said Friday. Informa's latest figure is above the U.S. Department of Agriculture's March 30 corn plantings forecast of 95.9 million acres, which, if confirmed, would represent the most U.S. acres seeded to corn since 1937. Informa also raised its U.S. 2012 soybean plantings estimate to 75.959 million acres, from 75.822 million in its last estimate, issued May 4. The firm's latest soybean estimate is 2 million acres higher than USDA's March forecast of 73.9 million acres. (Source: Reuters)

MSP rise not lifting Bengal’s paddy gloom

This year’s 16% rise in the MSP for paddy is unlikely to cheer farmers in West Bengal, one of the biggest rice producing states. Output is likely to come down by at least 10-15 per cent this year, on account of an ongoing dry spell and a distress sale last season. On Thursday, the government raised the MSP for paddy from Rs. 1,080 per quintal last year to Rs. 1,250 per quintal for 2012-13. Eastern India is yet to receive monsoon rains due to persistence of a large mass of dry air over the western Bay of Bengal. The monsoon generally arrives by the first week of June in the state, which triggers the paddy sowing (Source: Business Standard)

China to buy 1 mt of US cotton China, the world’s biggest cotton user, is seeking to buy one million tonnes of new-crop output from the US to boost government stockpiles, according to two executives familiar with the matter. The China National Cotton Reserves Corp, which stockpiles the commodity on behalf of the government, has bought 160,000 tonnes since last week, said the executives, who declined to be identified as they aren’t authorised to speak to the media. Phone calls to the state company weren’t answered. (Source: Business Standard)





Market Highlights as on June 15, 2012

% change

Unit Last Prev day WoW MoM YoY

Chana Spot - NCDEX (Delhi)

Rs/qtl 4225 0.30 0.40 1.81 53.64

Chana- NCDEX June '12 Futures

Rs/qtl 4119 1.18 1.40 -1.44 44.88

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart - Chana NCDEX July contract

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook valid for June 16, 2012

Contract Unit Support Resistance

Chana July Futures Rs./qtl 4083-4100 4175-4194

Chana Chana futures as well as spot settled higher by 0.3% and 1.16% on Friday after the Indian government hiked the minimum support price(MSP) of Kharif crops including Pulses. Further, reports of 50% below normal rains in the fist 2 weeks of June also supported the firm market sentiments.

Around 36 percent of the total Pulses in India are grown in the Kharif season. For 2012-13 season, the MSP of urad has been increased by 30 percent to Rs 4,300 per qtl, against Rs 3,300 per qtl previous year. The decision on MSPs of key pulses i.e Tur and Moong -- were deferred.

Although Chana being a Rabi crop, is not sown in the Kharif season, yet it is necessary to keep watch on Kharif sowing progress as it does impact the overall Pulses segment.

As per the Met dept, the weekly rainfall for the country as a whole was 50% below the Long Period Average (LPA).

As per the latest circular dated 13-06-2012, the existing Special Margin (cash) of 30% on the Long side is reduced to 20%. The existing Additional Margin (cash) of 5% on both Long and Short side stands withdrawn.

Also, as per the staggered delivery mechanism introduced June onwards Buyer or seller can take fresh position even during the tender period, but buyers need to be cautious of the delivery which can be marked to them if the Position is kept open at EOD.

Sowing progress and demand supply fundamentals

Under a government initiative, India is now growing pulses in the summer season, apart from it’s typically followed two crop cycles, Kharif and Rabi. Farmers are cultivating summer pulses to cash in on the short duration crops, which can be used with the wheat-paddy cropping system.

According to preliminary reports, Pulses have been sown in 15.11 lakh hectares so far in the current sowing season as against target of 17.49 lakh hectares. (Source: PIB)

According to the third advance estimates, Pulses output is pegged at 17.02 mn tn in 2011-12 compared with 18.24 mn tn produced in the year 2010-11 while Chana output in 2011-12 is estimated lower at 7.40 million tonnes as compared to 7.66 million tonnes as stated in second Advance estimates and 8.22 mn tn produced last year.

As per the latest release of Department of commerce(GOI), during April11- February 12 imports of pea, chickpea and Tur rise by 42 percent, 99 percent and 27 percent to 19.31 lakh tonnes ,1.93 lakh tonnes 3.37 lakh tonnes respectively as compared to previous year. While, moong and lentils imports are down by 14 percent and 38 percent to 3.6 lakh tonnes and 98 thousand tones compared from last year.

India's consumption of pulses is on the rise with an annual growth of around 5% but production is seen lower, which may lead to increase in imports this year. However, rupee weakness may turn import costlier. Around 74% of Indian chickpea imports come from Australia.

Outlook

Slow advancement of monsoon, reduction in special margin coupled with hike in MSP of Kharif crops may support Chana prices in the intraday. Sharp upside may however, be capped on fears of government intervention to curb the rising Chana prices.

In the short term (1 week), we expect Chana July contract to trade in the range of Rs 4000 and Rs 4250 per qtl levels. Long term fundamentals remain supportive for Chana prices on the back of supply concerns caused by lower output and growing consumption. Rupee weakness may further fuel the upside in the prices as this will turn imports expensive.






% Change Unit Last Prev. day WoW MoM YoY Sugar Spot- NCDEX (Kolkata) Rs/qtl 3175 -0.16 0.79 -1.69 9.48

Sugar M- NCDEX June '12 Futures Rs/qtl 2875 0.84 2.68 0.35 4.89

Source: Reuters

International Prices as on June 15, 2012

% Change Unit Last Prev day WoW MoM YoY

Sugar No 5- Liffe- Aug'12 Futures

$/tonne 585.6 3.34 1.40 3.59 -21.25

Sugar No 11-ICE July'12 Futures

$/tonne 463.11 4.36 4.30 2.16 -24.19

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart - Sugar NCDEX July contract

Source: Telequote



Sugar July NCDEX Futures Rs./qtl 2851-2859 2888-2898

Sugar NCDEX Sugar prices settled 0.8% higher on Friday on account of below normal rains so far in the coming season. Prices also took support from the international markets that have witnessed upward movement since the beginning of the month owing to unfavorable weather conditions in Brazil and possible return of El nino have limited the downside in the domestic sugar prices.

Advancement of monsoon has been slow so far Southwest 42% below normal rains being witnessed between June 1 and June11.

DGFT has issued registration certificates for the export of 332000 tons of sugar out of which 177000 tons of sugar have already been exported, according to news sources. India had exported 28.14 lk tn in MY 2010-11.

In the international markets Liffe white sugar settled and ICE raw sugar settled 3.34% and 4.36 % higher on Friday as concerns over lower yield in Brazil.

There are reports that the strong appetite for sugar could combine with bad weather in Brazil and a possible return of the El Nino weather pattern to take some pressure off global prices, which have plunged to their lowest since 2010 because of a nagging supply overhang.

Domestic Production and Exports

As on 6th June, 2012, the area under sugarcane is estimated at 50.6 lakh ha, up, than 49.3 lakh ha a year ago. Lower acreage is reported mainly in Maharashtra by 10%, Karnataka 11.6% and Uttarakhand, by 8% while higher area is reported in the states of Bihar, Punjab, Tamil Nadu, Uttar Pradesh and Andhra Pradesh.

Sugar production in India — the world’s second-biggest producer — touched 25.50 million tonne since October 1, up 8% from a year before, data released by the ISMA on Thursday said. Output in the western Indian state of Maharashtra was at 8.97 million tonnes, up from 8.91 million tonnes a year ago while that from northern Uttar Pradesh state was at 6.96 million tonnes, up 18 percent.

With the opening stocks of 6.8 mn tonnes, domestic Sugar supplies are estimated at 32-33 mn tn against the domestic consumption of around 22.5-23 mln tn. Thus, there is a wide scope for exports from India. Taking into consideration the same government has allowed 3 mn tonnes exports in 3 tranches.

Global Sugar Updates

Thailand sees record sugar exports of 8 mln tonnes in 2013 season due to bumper crop estimates in 2012-13 season at 10.4 mn tn against 10.2 mn tn in 2011-12 season.

According to Unica, Brazilian sugarcane crushing since the beginning of the 2012/2013 harvest totaled 35.09 million tons by mid-May, a 38.67% drop compared to the same period last year as wet weather delayed harvesting operations. Sugar output has reached 1.56 million tons, a drop of 33.89% compared to last year.

According to the International Sugar Organization (ISO), the global sugar surplus is forecast to halve to around 3 mln tn in 2012/13 (October-September) from a surplus of 6.5 million tonnes in 2011/12).

Outlook

Sugar prices may recover tracking the firmness in the international markets in the last 2-3 sessions. In the long term, price trend would depend on planting figures of 2012-13 crops in the domestic markets and thereby output estimates for next season. Also, it is necessary to keep close watch on Brazilian Sugarcane harvesting progress. In the short term July sugar futures may trade n the range of Rs 2820 to Rs 2880 per qtl levels.






% Change


Soybean Spot- NCDEX (Indore)

Rs/qtl 3468 0.46 0.26 0.09 51.57

Soybean- NCDEX June '12 Futures

Rs/qtl 3502 2.38 2.35 3.86 53.36

Ref Soyaoil Spot- NCDEX(Indore)

Rs/10 kgs 715.4 0.14 -1.26 -0.27 11.71

Ref Soyaoil- NCDEX June '12 Futures

Rs/10 kgs 713 0.08 -0.81 -1.70 12.34

Source: Reuters

as on June 15, 2012

International Prices Unit Last Prev day WoW MoM YoY

Soybean- CBOT- July'12 Futures

USc/ Bushel 1376 -0.72 -3.52 -2.26 -0.25

Soybean Oil - CBOT-July'12 Futures USc/lbs 48.44 0.92 -2.06 -12.23 -15.46

Source: Reuters

Crude Palm Oil as on June 15, 2012 % Change

Unit Last Prev day WoW MoM YoY CPO-Bursa Malaysia –June'12 Contract

MYR/Tonne 2810 0.00 -4.55 -9.35 -17.35

CPO-MCX-June'12 Futures

Rs/10 kg 527.9 0.42 -2.64 -6.96 12.68

Source: Reuters

RM Seed as on June 15, 2012


RM Seed Spot- NCDEX (Jaipur)

Rs/100 kgs 3650 -0.54 -3.41 -1.82 29.43

RM Seed- NCDEX June '12 Futures

Rs/100 kgs 3701 0.52 -0.32 -0.86 30.00

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart –Mustard Seed NCDEX July contract

Source: Telequote



Soy Oil July NCDEX Futures Rs./qtl 710-713 721-724

Soybean NCDEX July Futures Rs./qtl 3363-3390 3465-3483

RM Seed NCDEX July Futures Rs./qtl 3690-3703 3782-3815

CPO MCX June Futures Rs./qtl 519-524 533-539

Oilseeds

Soybean: NCDEX July Soybean futures traded higher on account of

firm overseas market Higher MSP also added bullish market sentiments. Minimum Support Price for Kharif Crops for 2012-13 season approved The Cabinet committee on Economic Affairs today, approved the Minimum Support Prices (MSPs) for soybean has been fixed at Rs 2200 per quintal for soybean, up 33% from 1650 in 2011-12. According to the third advance estimates, Indian oilseed production stood at 30.06 million tonnes in 2011-12 against 32.4 mn tn in 2010-11.As per USDA’s monthly S&D report, US soybean plantation estimates was 75 million acre vs 73.90 million acre. US soybean yield is expected to increase at 43.90 bushel/acre for 2012-13 as compared to 41.5 bushel/acre. Ending stock of soybean is expected to decline at 140 million bushel in 2012-13 as compared to 175 million bushel in 2011-12. As per Solvent Extractors' Association of India, the domestic export of oil meals during May 2012 has increased to 351,791 tonnes, up by 8.60% as compared to 323,907 tonnes in May 2011. The total export of oilmeals during April-May 2012 is reduced to 752, 218 tonnes, down more than10% as compared to 837,128 tons during the same period of last year, mainly due to disparity in crushing resulted into less availability of oilmeals for the export. Vegetable oil Imports: The excessive import of edible oils during pick crushing season leads to record stock at ports and pipelines and reported at 17.0 lakh tons nearly 40 days requirement. As per Solvent Extractors' Association of India, Import of edible oil during the November 2011 to May 2012 (first 7 month of edible oil marketing year) was 5486553 tonnes, up 33% as compared to 4118552 during the same period last year. During Nov.,2011 to May,2012, Import of refined oil (RBD Palmolein) up by 97% and reported at 1,084,933 tons compared to 551,327 tons during the same period of last year. Arrivals of soybean in major mandis of Madhya Pradesh were 40,000 bags and arrivals in Maharashtra 8,000 bags and Rajasthan 7,000 bags (bags=100 Kg). In Indore, Soybean prices (Mandi auction) were in a range of Rs 3300-3400/qtl and Plant delivery was in a range of Rs 3460-3500/qtl.

Rape/mustard Seed: NCDEX July RM Seed futures traded slightly higher on account of improved demand from millers and stockiest. Gains in other oilseeds and edible oil also provided support to the prices. As per 3rd Advance Estimates of Crop Production for 2011/12 released by Ministry of Agriculture which shows production estimates of RM seed of 6.96 mln tons which is much higher as compared to COOIT’s figure of 6.03 mln tons. As per COOIT, the country's rapeseed output is estimated to drop by 12.6% to 6.03 mln tons in the year to June 2012.

Refined Soy Oil: NCDEX July Soy Oil/CPO futures traded higher on

account of firm overseas market. As per Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB), Malaysian palm oil stock in the month May 2012 declined to 1,764,788 tonnes, down 4.46 as compared to 1,847,156 tonnes in April 2012.

Outlook: In the intraday, oilseed complex are expected to trade higher on account of firm overseas market. Lower stock of domestic soybean coupled with delayed monsoon may provide support to the prices.






% Change


Pepper Spot- NCDEX (Kochi)

Rs/qtl 39747 0.06 2.07 0.81 47.07

Pepper- NCDEX June '12 Futures

Rs/qtl 40100 -0.27 1.48 -0.05 49.92

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart – Black Pepper NCDEX July contract

Source: Telequote



Black Pepper NCDEX July Futures Rs/qtl 40000-40150 40735-40900

Spices Black Pepper Spot Pepper prices continued to remain steady throughout the day and settled 0.06% marginally higher on Friday. Futures also traded in rangebound manner and settled 0.27% lower yesterday. Far month contract however witnessed long liquidation towards the end of the session and ended 0.59% lower yesterday. According to the circular released on June 13th 2012 the existing Special margin of 10% (cash) on the long side stands withdrawn on all running contracts and yet to be launched contracts in Pepper from beginning of day Friday June 15, 2012.

Pepper prices in the international market are being quoted at $7600/tonne while Vietnam was offering its produce at $6,950/tonne. Brazil was offering its pepper at $7,000/tonne.

Exports According to Spices Board of India, exports of pepper during April 2011-January 2012 rose by 49% and stood at 22,300 tonnes as compared to 14,950 tonnes in corresponding period last year. Month on month rise in the exports of Pepper stood at 12%. India imported 1,848 tonnes of pepper till March 2012 and has become the third country to import such large quantity after UAE and Singapore. (Source: Agriwatch)

According to Vietnam Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) exports of black pepper in 2012 are forecasted to fall by 30 percent to around 86,000 tonnes. Vietnam shipped a record number around 18,800 tons in March alone, against some 14,000 tons in March 2010 and 16,100 tons in March 2011 (Source: Peppertradeboard).

Pepper imports by U.S. the largest consumer of the spice declined 14.8% in the first 2 months of the year (2012) to 8810 tn as compared to 10344 tn in the same period previous year. Imports of Pepper in the month of February declined by 16.8% to 3999 tn as compared to 4811 tn in the month of January 2012.

Exports from Indonesia posted significant decrease of 42% as compared to previous year. Exports stood at 36,500 tonnes as compared to 62,599 tonnes in the last year. During February 2012 Brazil exported 1,679 tonnes of pepper as against 2791 tn in February 2011. Export of Pepper during January – February 2012 stood at 4222 tn a decline of 16% as compared to same period previous year.

Production and Arrivals Arrivals of pepper in domestic market stood at 10 tonnes while offtakes were 13 tonnes on Friday.

Global Pepper production in 2012 is expected to increase 7.2% to 3.20 lakh tonnes as compared to 2.98 lakh tonnes in 2011 with sharp rise of 24% in Indonesian pepper output and in Vietnam by 10%. According to latest report pepper output in Vietnam is estimated to be 1.35 lakh tonne as compared to 1.10 lakh tonne estimated early in the beginning of year (2012).

Domestic consumption of Pepper in the world is expected to grow by 3.03% to 1.25 lakh tonnes while exports are likely to grow by 1.48% to 2.46 lakh tonnes in 2012. (Source: Peppertradeboard) On the other hand production of pepper in India in 2011-12 is expected to decline further by 5% to 43 thousand tonnes as compared to 48 thousand tonnes in the last year. Production is lowest in a decade.

Outlook

Pepper prices in the intraday are expected to trade sideways owing to fragile demand from the overseas and domestic buyers. Limited stocks with the stockists are expected to cushion prices on the downside.






% Change


Jeera Spot- NCDEX(Unjha)

Rs/qtl 13562 0.27 1.34 -1.32 -8.03

Jeera- NCDEX June '12 Futures

Rs/qtl 12820 -0.95 1.18 -4.83 -13.15

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart – Jeera NCDEX July contract

Source: Telequote

Market Highlights as on June 15, 2012 % Change


Turmeric Spot- NCDEX (N'zmbad)

Rs/qtl 3504 1.21 0.47 -6.45 -52.93

Turmeric- NCDEX June '12 Futures

Rs/qtl 3680 3.55 3.31 -9.98 -51.18

Technical Chart – Turmeric NCDEX July contract

Source: Telequote


Unit Support Resistance

Jeera NCDEX July Futures Rs/qtl 12825-12950 13215-13325

Turmeric NCDEX July Futures Rs/qtl 3725-3770 3858-3903

Jeera Jeera prices witnessed mixed trades throughout the day and settled 0.36% higher on Friday. Expectation of demand from the overseas and domestic buyers eyeing lower stocks in Turkey and with Syria unable to export jeera is supporting prices. Futures however witnessed long liquidation at the resistance levels and ended 0.95% lower yesterday.

There are reports of lower output of jeera in Syria and Turkey in 2012. Fresh arrivals from Syria have commenced while harvesting of Jeera in Turkey will commence shortly. Jeera prices in the international market of Indian origin are being offered at $2,550/tonne while Syria is offering its produce at $2950/tonne.

Carryover stocks of jeera in the domestic market is expected to be around 7-8 lakh bags as compared to 4-5 lakh bags in the last year.

Production, Arrivals and Exports

Unjha markets witnessed arrivals of 9,000 bags, 1000 bags lower as compared to previous day while off-takes stood at 12,000 bags on Friday. Production of jeera in 2011-12 is expected to be around 40 lakh bags as compared to 29 lakh bags in 2010-11. (each bag weighs 55 kgs). (Source: spot market traders).

According to Spices Board of India, exports of Jeera during April 2011- January 2012 stood at 34,500 tonnes as compared to 22,450 tonnes in 2010-11, an increase of 54%. However, month on month exports of jeera witnessed a decline of 40%.

Outlook

Jeera Futures are likely to trade firm anticipating fresh export enquiries due to lower availability in the other major producing nations. In the medium to long term (July-September 2012) prices are likely to witness a bounce back as there are limited stocks with Syria and Turkey and crop there is 30% short as compared to last year.

Turmeric Turmeric prices reversed earlier losses of the previous day and settled 1.21% higher on Friday on expectation of lower acreage covered under the spice this season. Further reports that Tamil Nadu government might procure turmeric at Rs.4,000/qtl also supported prices to strengthen. Prices in the Spot and Futures settled 1.2% and 3.6% higher on Friday.

Production, Arrivals and Exports

Arrivals in Nizamabad and Erode mandi stood at 4,000 bags and 8 thousand bags respectively on Friday.

Fresh sowing of Turmeric will commence with the onset of southwest monsoon in the key growing regions.

Turmeric production for the year 2011-12 is projected at historical high of 90 lakh bags (1 bag= 70 kgs) compared to 69 lakh bags in 2010-11. Erode is expected to produce 55 lakh bags of turmeric a rise of 29% as compared to previous year.

According to Spices Board of India, exports of Turmeric during April 2011- December 2011 stood at 62,000 tonnes as compared to 37,400 tonnes in 2010-11, rise of 66%. Targets set by the Spices Board have already been met till October 2011. Exports have touched new historical levels in 2011-12.

Outlook

Turmeric prices in the intraday are likely to trade sideways to up due to improved buying by the market participants tracking reports of lower area covered under the spice eyeing lower prices. Delay in the advancement of the monsoon is also supporting prices.

In the medium to long term (July to September) prices are expected to remain subdued due to sufficient stocks in the domestic market.






% Change


Mentha Oil- MCX Spot (Chandausi)

Rs/qtl 1517 -0.41 -2.18 -9.53 22.26

Mentha Oil MCX – June Futures

Rs/qtl 1362 -2.25 -5.18 -2.99 9.84

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart – Mentha Oil MCX June contract

Source: Telequote

Market Highlights as on June 15, 2012 % Change


Potato Spot- NCDEX (Agra)

Rs/qtl 975.6 0.00 0.70 2.97 70.89

Potato- NCDEX June '12 Futures

Rs/qtl 1009 -0.59 1.40 5.72 97.73

Technical Chart – Potato NCDEX July contract

Source: Telequote


Unit Support Resistance Mentha Oil May Futures Potato NCDEX July Futures

Rs/kg Rs/qtl

1337-1348 1066-1071

1392-1402 1108-1115

Potato MCX July Futures Rs/qtl 1110-1123 1149-1158

Mentha Oil Mentha oil Futures corrected consecutively for the second day on Friday on reports of better output expectations from the crop sown in February/March. Also, IMD’s statement that it expects the monsoon to advance vigorously from June 17 supported the bears. Mentha oil Spot as well as Futures settled 0.41% and 2.25% lower on Friday.

Total Special Cash margin of 25% on the long side of Mentha Oil has been reduced to 10% in the May contract and 5% in June contract onwards from May 5, 2012.

For detailed reference please refer to the Circular No: MCX/T&S/180/2012 dated 03/05/2012. Production, Arrivals and Exports

According to spot market sources, the overall acreage is estimated to increase from 1.75 lakh ha to 2.1 lakh ha this year. The overall production of Mentha is expected to increase by 30% - 40% as compared to last year. Arrivals of the fresh crop have started in the main sowing regions and currently stand around 1200 drums (each drum weighs 180 kgs). Exports of Mentha during April 2011 to January 2012 witnessed a decline of 6% to 12,850 tonnes as compared to 13,550 tonnes in the same period last year. Outlook

Demand from the local stockists amidst steady arrivals will keep Mentha prices firm in the intraday. Also, delay in the advancement of the monsoon is expected to support prices in the short term. In long to medium term (July-September) prices are likely to remain under pressure due to peak arrival period.

Potato

Potato Futures traded in a rangebound manner with a negative bias due ample supplies from the cold storages in the domestic market. The Spot settled unchanged while the Futures settled lower by 0.59%. There are reports that the Hassan crop from Karnataka may yield lower output on account of delay in arrival of monsoon which may support prices at lower levels.

As per circular issued by NCDEX dated 04.06.12, Special margin (cash) on potato on long side have been reduced to 15% from 25% & Additional margin (cash) of 5% on both long and short position have been withdrawn. Margins will be in effect from Wednesday 06, 2012.

Production and Arrivals Scenario The arrivals of potato in markets are at present from the cold storages and also from locally stored by farmers. Although 12-13% of the cold storage stocks are released so far from overall producing belts, they are much lower compared to normal due to lower demand. The quality of potato tubers in the markets is medium to good. The sowing of potato seed for Kharif production in Karnataka and hills of Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand and J&K has been started. The seed sowing in Maharashtra is yet to be started. The area for Kharif is expected to be little more in comparison to previous year.

According to the West Bengal Cold Storage Association, release of potatoes from cold storages in Bengal has started and about 4-5% of the total quantity of potatoes kept in cold storages has been released. 2011-12 output is much lower than the NHRDF’s estimates of 43 million tonnes. The modal prices of potato in almost all the markets during the month of May 2012 have increased by around 50 to 75% compared to last year and 10 to 20% compared to April 2012.

Outlook Potato prices are likely to witness some recovery due to slow advancement of monsoon. In the medium term, Potato prices may take cues from output of Kharif Potato.

daily agri report june 16 -...

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